2040欧洲太阳能的改革与发展趋势报告（英文版）-欧洲光伏协会

MISSIONSOLAR

2040

Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

MISSION

SOLAR

Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

2040

solarpowerEurope

SolarPowerEurope–LeadingtheEnergyTransition

SolarPowerEuropeisamember-ledassociationthataimstoensurethat

moreenergyisgeneratedbysolarthananyotherenergysourceby2030.

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary5

Policyrecommendations7

1Introduction12

2Methodologyandscenariodescription17

3Keyresults24

4Scenariosensitivities39

Annex43

solarpowerEurope

Projectlead:MichaelSchmela,SolarPowerEurope.

Projectmanager:RaffaeleRossi,SolarPowerEurope.

Internalco-authors:RaffaeleRossi,MichaelSchmela,&DriesAcke,SolarPowerEurope.

ChristopherAndrey,Artelys.

Externalco-authors:ThisreportwasconductedwiththesupportofArtelys.Contributingauthors:ThomasBrouhard,ThomasRousselet,&

Pleaseciteas:SolarPowerEurope(2024):MissionSolar2040:Europe'sflexibilityrevolution.

Formediauseandqueries:BethanyMeban,SolarPowerEurope

b.meban@

Dateofpublication:June2024.

ISBN:9789464669183.

Contact:info@.ThankstoourSponsorMembers:

bp

Tinasoar

uoncisolar

Iberdrola

lightsourcebp

--

pletude

Greenpower

Firstsolare

HUAWEI

r.e.thinkenergy

Design:Onehemisphere,Sweden.contact@onehemisphere.se

Coverimage:ShaunMKelly/S

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MissionSolar2040:Europe’sflexibilityrevolution3

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Executivesummary

Solarisgrowingmuchfasterthananyonewouldhaveexpected,asmarketexpansionkeepssurprisingallsolarandenergyanalysts.Astheglobalsolarmarketisontracktoexceed500GWofnewinstalledcapacityin2024andisprojectedtocrosstheTWlevelbefore2030,theeffectsofthisstrongaccelerationarealsovisibleintheEuropeanUnion.Havingreachedanoperatingsolarfleetof269GWin2023,theEUisprojectedtocontrolnearly900GWofsolarcapacitybytheendofthedecade,outpacingnationalandEUsolartargets.

Meanwhile,currenttrendsintheEUpowersystem,coupledwithclimateandenergypolicytargetstowards2030and2040,indicatethatvariablerenewableenergysourceslikesolarPVandwindwillprovidethelargestbulkofEUelectricitysupplyinthecomingdecades.TheREPowerEUplan,andmorerecentlytheEUCommission2040impactassessmentscenario,outlinepathwaysandtargetsforalargeincreaseinvariablerenewableenergygeneration.

However,adeepintegrationofvariablerenewables,inparticularsolarenergy,intothepowersystemdoesnotcomewithoutchallenges.Alreadytoday,someMemberStateswithcomparativelyhighlevelsofsolarPVpenetrationarestartingtofaceissuesrelatedtothesmoothintegrationofvariablerenewablegenerationintheirpowermixes.Theseissuesincludebothchallengesoftechnicalnature(integrationofsolarprojectsintothegrid,increasinglevelofcurtailment)andfinancialnature(marketstructure,investmentattractivenessandremunerationofrenewableproducers).

ThisstudyexplorestheinterplaybetweentherolloutofPVcapacityandthedeploymentandoperationofflexibilitysolutionsintheEUpowersystem,lookingatthe2030and2040timehorizons.ModellingsimulationsofinvestmentandhourlyEUpowersystemoperationsoverafullyear,itanalysesthreescenarioswithincreasinglevelsofsolarPVandflexibilitysolutions,namelyflexiblecapacitiesand

flexibledemandfromelectrification(seeTable1).

Baseline

Limited

Limited

Baseline

Limited

Increased

Increased

Increased

Increased

solar

.

.

.

TABLE1OVERVIEWOFSCENARIOSTRUCTURE

SCENARIO

KEYEXPECTATIONS

SOLARPVCAPACITY

ELECTRIFICATIONLEVELS

FLEXIBLE

CAPACITIES

Solar-As-Usual(SAU)

Baselinescenario:Lackofflexibility

solutionslimitsRESintegration.High

curtailmentandcannibalisationexpected

Solar+Flexibility(SF)

Intermediatescenario:Flexiblecapacitiesreducecurtailmentandcannibalisation

Solar+Flexibility+Electrification(SFE)

Advancedscenario:UnlockingflexibilitysolutionsimprovessystemoperationsCurtailmentandcannibalisationare

5

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MissionSolar2040:Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

Executivesummary/continued

Thestudyresultshighlightthefundamentalroleofflexibilitysolutionsinapowersystemcharacterisedbyastrongpenetrationofvariablerenewablegeneration.Tappingflexibilitypotentialnotonlyenablesthedeploymentofmoresolarasthekeytomeetclimatetargetsandsecurity–italsoallowstomakebetteruseofabundant,cleanandcheapelectricity.Theanalysisshowsthat:

1.UnlockingflexibilitysolutionsenablesfurtherPVdeployment,resultinginadditionalsolarelectricityintotheEUpowermix.Solarcapacityexceeds1.2TWin2030and2.4TWin2040,providing32%and39%ofEUpowerdemandrespectively.

2.UnlockingflexibilitysolutionsreinforcesthePVbusinesscase.In2040,solarcurtailmentratesarereducedby49%andsolarcapturepricesincreaseby54%comparedtothebaseline.

3.Unlockingflexibilitysolutionsreducestotalenergysystemcosts,thankstothemassivecostsavings

fromtheelectrificationoftheheat,transportandhydrogensector.Annualnetsystemcostsavingsamountto32billionEURin2030and160billionEURin2040.

4.UnlockingflexibilitysolutionslowerstotalGHGemissions.Carbonemissionlinkedtotheadditionalpowerdemandfromelectrificationarelargelycounterbalancedbycross-sectoralemissionsavingsfromthereductionofcarbon-intensivealternatives.AnnualnetGHGemissionsavingsamountto151MtCO2eqin2030and555MtCO2eqin2040.

ThisMissionSolar2040reportfindsthatbuildingacleanenergysystembasedonrenewables,flexibilityandelectrificationisthebestwaytobringthebenefitsoftheenergytransitiontoEurope’sbusinessesandcitizensandsecureEurope’soverallcompetitivenessandprosperity.Ourpolicyrecommendations(p.7)outlinesomeofthecrucialactionstosupportthescaleupinvestmentsinrenewablesandincleanflexibility.

50MWhybridplant,ElAndvalo,Spain.©Iberdrola

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MissionSolar2040:Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

POLICYRECOMMENDATIONS

Setpoliticalgoalsforrenewablesandcleanflexibilityfor2030and2040

1.

ThecurrentEUregulatoryframeworkincludes2030targetsforrenewables.Thismustcontinueafter2030andbecomplementedwithparallelgoalsforgridsandstorage.Establishingsuchtargetsisessentialtoprovideapoliticalsteerand

ThisMissionSolar2040reportfindsthatbuildingacleanenergysystembasedonrenewables,flexibilityandelectrificationisthebestwaytobringthebenefitsoftheenergytransitiontoEurope’sbusinessesandcitizensandsecureEurope’scompetitivenessandprosperity,comparedtoacurrentpoliciesscenario.

ensurepoliticaloversightoncleanflexibility.Thisiscurrentlylacking,whichpartiallyexplainstheslowprogressinthisarea.AnanalysisofthelatestNationalEnergyandClimatePlans(NECPs)backs

Thechallenge,however,istoscaleupinvestmentsinrenewablesand,especially,incleanflexibilityinthecomingyears.Thenewpoliticalcycleisanopportunitytotakethisnextstepintheenergytransitionagenda,startingwiththefollowingpolicyrecommendations:

grids

storage

electrification

SetEUtargetsfor2030and

forRESandflexibility2040

1

energysystemmodelling

Plan

RS

capacities

Invest2Improve

Decentralised(Daily/weekly)

investmentinflexibilitytheenergysystem

FLEX

Unlock

across

...

Large-scale(Daily/weekly)

3

4

...

Seasonal

AdoptanEU

andInvestment

PHS

...

ElectrificationActionPlan

7

MissionSolar2040:Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

Policyrecommendations/continued

uptheargument:whileambitionlevelsforrenewableshavesubstantiallyimproved,itisnotmatchedwithobjectivesandinvestmentplansingridsandstorage.Thisdisconnectcannotcontinueifwearetoavoidthelimitstorenewablesgrowthasoutlinedinthereport.

It’simportanttocarefullydistinguishbetweentherolesandtargetsofcross-bordertransmissiongrids,localdistributiongrids,andstorage.

•Thisreportassumesthatcross-bordertransmissiongridsincreaseby157GW(+130%)toreach278GWby2040.Thisshouldbetranslatedintoapoliticalobjectiveforcross-borderinfrastructurefor2040buildingontheexisting15%indicativetargetby2030;

•Ondistributionlevel,andwithin-countrytransmissionlevel,politicalobjectivesarelackingandurgentlyneedtobeestablished.Inparticular,themandateofNationalRegulatorsshouldbemodernisedinlinewiththenewchallengesoftheNationalEnergyandClimatePlans.Thismeansthatnationalregulatorsshallprovidenew,strongincentivesforgridmodernisationandbuild-outinlightoftheunprecedentedinvestmentneed,with

timelyrecognitionofinvestmentsandadequatereturns.Anticipatoryinvestmentsshouldalsobefurtherincentivisedandde-riskedthroughtherightregulatoryframework.Giventhediversityoflocalplayers,itisbettertoworkwithKeyPerformanceIndicatorsforDistributionSystemOperators(DSOs),forexamplearoundgridhostingcapacityoraveragetimetogridconnection,makingsurethattargetsareachievableandaccompaniedwithadequateincentives.Maximumdeadlinesshouldalsobeintroducedforthepermit-grantingprocessesforcompetentauthorities.Aone-size-fits-allisunlikelytoworkinthisfield,butitremainsessentialtosetclearobjectivesthatguaranteepoliticalsteeringandoversighttowardsDSOsandregulators;

•Onstorage,thisreportspeakstotheneedtomassivelyscaleupbatterystoragecapacityandoperationacrossEurope,witha20-foldgrowthfrom36GWhin2023to780GWhin2030anda50-foldgrowthto1.8TWhin2040.SettinganEU-leveltargetfollowslogicallyfromtheG7decisiontoadoptaglobalenergystoragetargetof1,500GWby2030,upfrom230GWin2022.1Giventhecloserelationbetweenvariablerenewablesand

8

solarpowerEurope

©EVB

1G7Italy(2024):

Climate,EnergyandEnvironmentMinisters’Meeting

Communiqué.

MissionSolar2040:Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

batterystorage,itmakessensetoexpresssuchtargetasapercentageofrenewablesoutput.Thisisimportantasitdirectlylinkstheroleofstorageandotherflexiblecapacitiestocurrentandfuturerenewablesintegration.Today,regulatorstendtoassesstheneedforstorageagainstsecurityofsupplyparameters,likereliabilitystandardsthatarelinkedtoLossofLoadExpectations(LOLE).Thisapproach,however,underestimatestheroleofstorageinsupportingcost-effectiverenewableintegrationfromanoptimalsocio-economicwelfarepointofview.ThiscouldbesolvedbyadoptingaRenewableIntegrationstandard.Asabenchmark,ourreportsuggestsa15%batterystoragepowercapacitytovariablerenewables(VRES)ratioin2030and18%in2040.

TheElectricityMarketDesignrequiresMemberStatestoassesstheirnon-fossilflexibilityneedsbothattransmissionanddistributionlevel,atdifferenttimescales,basedondataprovidedbysystemoperators,anddeveloprelatedobjectivesfordemandresponseandstorage.Thatisagoodstartingpointfordefiningtheneeds,whichwesuggestshouldbeformalisedastargetsandincludedintheNECPs.Inthemeantime,thenewprovisionsonflexibilityshouldbeimplementedwithoutdelay,startingfromtheimplementationofcapacityremunerationmechanismsfosteringtheparticipationofdemandresponseandstorageand,inthefuture,supportschemesforflexibility.Here,wesuggestcreatingadedicatedexpertgroup,gatheringMemberStatesandregulatorstomonitorimplementation&exchangebestpractices.

2.Improveenergysystemplanningandassessing

capacitiesforsystemoperators,regulatorsandpolicymakers

Theenergysystemischangingrapidlyandfundamentally,mainlydrivenbyrenewables,electrificationanddigitalisationtrends.Failingtoplanforthesechangesequalsplanningforfailure.Asrenewablesgrowatallvoltagelevelsandelectrificationaccelerates–offeringnewandhighpotentialforflexibility–gridplanningismoreimportantthanever.

TheElectricityMarketDesignalreadyrequiressystemoperatorstoregularlyconductgridplanningexercises,butevidenceshowsslow

MissionSolar2040:Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

implementationandlittleinnovation.Supportingthedevelopmentofmodernnetworkdevelopmentplansandimplementingnewpracticessuchasanticipatoryinvestmentsorflexibilityassessmentswillbecritical.Werecommend:

•ToswiftlyadoptacommonEUmethodologyforassessingflexibilityneedsfordaily,weekly,seasonalflexibility.Thisshouldincludeamethodologytoassessthecontributionfromprosumersorlocalenergyhubs(collectiveself-consumption)tooverallflexibilityandcongestionmanagement;

•ToimprovethequalityandtransparencyofenergysystemmodellingtoolsacrossEurope.TheEuropeanCommissionshouldinvestinnewtoolsandfunctionstosupportMemberStates,systemoperatorsandregulatorsinupgradingtheirplanningandassessingcapacities,inthefirstinstancebystrengtheningthecapacitiesofACERinthisendeavour.TheEuropean

Commissionshould,however,alsoconsiderestablishinganewEuropeanEnergyAgency(EUEEA).TheEUEEAwouldhosttop-notchopen-sourceenergymodellingcapabilitiesandactasanindependentexpertisecentreforenergytransitioneconomicsandscenarioprojections,usingclose-to-realtimedata,advisingandsupportingEuropeanandnationalpolicymakers,regulatorsandsystemoperators.ThefunctionsarenotdissimilartotheroletheEnergyInformationAdministrationperformsintheUnitedStates.Themainadvantageofsuchexpertisecentreisthatitturnsthead-hocsupportfromEUtonationalactorsintomorestructuralcapacity-buildingfunctioninenergysystemmodellingacrossEurope.

3.Unlockinvestmentincleanflexibilityacrossthe

energysystem

Boostdecentralisedflexibilitybydevelopinglocalenergyhubsandfosteringprosumers.Itwillbeveryimportanttodeliverdailyflexibilityatlocalleveltomanagelocalgridcongestion.Thekeyliesincombininglocalsolargenerationwithelectrifiedheatingandtransportloadsinbuildings.Smartbuildingsshouldnotonlybethoughtofasflexibleassetsbutalsoaslocalenergyhubswherethepeakdemandismetbylocalgeneration–whilebeing

solarpowerEurope

9

Policyrecommendations/continued

connectedtotheenergysystemandcontributingtothereal-timestabilityofthegrid.Energyhubsmakesenseforthegridandarealsoeasytounderstandforconsumers.Wethereforerecommend:

•Engagingwiththeconstructionindustryinacceleratingrenovationpoliciesandusingthattriggerpointtorolloutdigitalisedandsmarttechnologiesinbuildings;

•Creatingeffectivepricesignalsthatharnessdistributedflexibility(smartEVchargingandheatpumps),includinglocalflexibilitymarketmechanismsandothertypesofpricesignals,suchasTimeofUsegridtariffs,orself-consumption,includingcollectiveself-consumption,withdedicatednetworkfeesreflectingactualgriduse;

•WorkingonstandardisationofgridrequirementsatEUlevel,inclosecooperationwithstandardisationbodiesandwiththeindustry,makingsuretheserequirementsaredefinedandstandardisedonEUlevel,notonnationalorlocallevel.ThisshouldallowmanufacturerstobecomecertifiedonlyonceandthenaccessthefullEUSingleEnergyMarket.ThisholdstrueparticularlywhenitcomestostandardsforDSO-levelgridconnection,forcommunication

withthegridoperators,forinstanceintheframeworkofalocalflexibilityorcongestionmarket,andforcommunicationfromdevicetodevice(energydataspace).

Boostlarge-scaleflexibilitybyinvestinginstandalonebatteriesaswellashybridisedsolarandbatteryprojects.Wetendtothinkofflexibilityasbigbatterypacksorasgridinterconnections.Butflexibilitycanalsobeharvestedatasolarsiteifitiscombinedwithabatterypackorequippedwithapowerplantcontrollerorasolartracker.YetinEurope,despitetheexistenceofmarketsforflexibility,financingabatterystorageremainsgenerallydifficultduetoeconomicbarriers.Inaddition,gridconnectionproceduresarenotyetadaptedforthegridconnectionofsolarandbatterystorageplants.Itisthereforecriticaltoremovebarriersandimprovepricesignalsforhybridisedsolarandstorageprojects,includingadaptingthepermittingandgridconnectionproceduresforhybridisation.Werecommend:

•Allowingabatteryco-locatedwithasolarplanttoprovideenergyarbitrageandflexibilityservicesthroughContractforDifferencebydevelopinganapproachthattracesthesolarelectricityeligibletopublicsupport.Inthe

©BayWar.e.

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MissionSolar2040:Europe'sflexibilityrevolution

mediumterm,werecommendassessingfutureContractforDifferencedesignstosupportsystemresponsivenessofassets;

•Ensuringthatcapacitymechanismsandancillaryservicesmarketsallowtheparticipationofstandaloneorco-locatedbatterystorageonalevel-playingfieldwithconventionalresources;

•Allowingforasimplegridconnectionprocedure,basedoncumulativeassetcapacity(RequirementsforGeneratorsnetworkcode),insteadofanapproachwheregridrequirementsarecalculatedoneverysingleasset.

Boostseasonalflexibilitybyinvestingingridinfrastructure,cleanseasonalstorage,andotherflexibilitycapacities.Storageassetscanalleviategridneedsandensurewemakethemostofexistinggridinfrastructure.Thisshouldstartbyquantifyingtheactualneeds,takingintoaccountthecomplementarityofsolarandwindonaseasonalbasisandthechangesinelectricityuse.Onthatbasis,clearpricesignalsshouldbedevelopedandencompassalltypesofcleanseasonalflexibilitycapacities.Still,thisreportshowsthatlargeinvestmentsareneededincross-bordergridinfrastructuretomoveelectricityfromzoneswithhighrenewablepotentialtoconsumptioncentresandindustrialclusters.Werecommend:

•Developingastrategyforcleanseasonalflexibility,encompassingallcleantechnologies;

•PrioritisingelectricityinfrastructureintheConnectingEuropeFacilityforEnergy,supportedbyanenablingframework(permittingandfinancing)forcross-bordergridinfrastructure,andintroducingdedicatedfundingtoolsearmarkedforsmartdistributionnetworks.

4.AdoptanEUElectrificationActionandInvestment

Plan,aspartofanewEUEnergySecuritystrategy

Ultimately,oneofthemostimportantdriversforreachinganet-zeroeconomyistomaximisetheelectrificationoftheEUenergysystem.Electrificationofend-usescomeswithtwosignificantandmutuallyreinforcingbenefits.First,itincreasesdemandforelectricity,inturnimprovingthebusinesscaseformarket-drivenroll-

MissionSolar2040:Europe'sflexibilityrevolution

outofsolarandotherrenewables.Second,ifdonesmartly,itsubstantiallyincreasessystemflexibilityopportunitiesthroughdemandresponseandloadsheddingandshifting.

HarnessingthisdynamicisessentialforthesuccessoftheenergytransitionandforEU’ssecurityofsupplybutrequiresasurgeinupfrontinvestment.Thereportestimatesannualisedinvestmentneedsat35billionEURin2030and62billionEURin2040,comparedtothebaselinescenario.Inturn,theseinvestmentswouldsave63and222billionEURinoverallenergysystemcosts,leadingtoanetpositiveof32and160billionEURin2030and2040respectively.

We,therefore,callontheEuropeanCommissiontoadoptanElectrificationInvestmentandActionPlan,including:

•Settingadirectelectrificationtargetofatleast35%offinalenergydemandby2030atEUlevel

andatleast50%by2040,whichshouldbereflectedinthenextNECPs;

•FullyaligningexistingEUandnationalfundingandfinancingframeworkswiththedeliveryofthe2030NECPs.Suchalignmentistheonlywaytode-riskandleverageprivatefinancinginthedirectionandatthescaleneeded.AccesstoEUfundingandfinancingshould,therefore,bemadeconditionalonplanningforasuccessfulenergytransition,particularlyonrenewablesandflexibilityassets.

•AdoptinganewEUElectrificationInvestmentPlan.WecallonpolicymakerstomakeuseoftheupcomingdebateonthenextMulti-yearFinancialFramework(2027-2034)toestablishsuchFundasNextGenerationEUandResilienceandRecoveryfundswilldryupinthecomingyears.

GiventhefundamentalchangesinEurope’senergysystem,shiftingtorenewables,electrificationanddigitisation,itistimetoredefineandupdatewhatenergysecuritymeansfortheEU.WethereforecallforadoptingsuchEUElectrificationActionandInvestmentPlanaspartofanew,holisticEUEnergySecuritystrategy.

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1

INTRODUCTION

©

VadimSadovski/S

electricitygeneration.In2023,solarandwindgenerationrepresented27%oftotalelectricityconsumption,providing721TWhtotheEUpowersystem(Figure1).2Thistrendhaspushedfossilfuels

Renewableenergysourcesaregainingmomentumintoday’sEUelectricitysystem.Backintheyear2000,solarandwindenergywerehardlyvisibleontheEUelectricitylandscape,capturinglessthan1%oftheEU

FIGURE1EUELECTRICITYMIX2000-2023

100

3,000

90

2,500

Shareofgeneration(%)

80

70

Generation(TWh)

2,000

60

1,500

50

40

1,000

30

20

500

10

0

2000200520102015202020002005201020152020

Solar

Bioenergy

Wind

Nuclear

OtherRES

Gas&otherfossil

HydroCoal

©SOLARPOWEREUROPE2024

12

solarpowerEurope

2SolarPowerEurope(2024):

GlobalMarketOutlookforSolarPower

2024-2028;Ember(2024):

EuropeanElectricityReview2024.

MissionSolar2040:Europe’sflexibilityrevolution

downto33%ofthegenerationmixin2023,asubstantialdeclinesincethe52%contributedin2000.

TheincreaseinvariablerenewableenergygenerationisreflectedinthelargegrowthofoperatingsolarPVandwindcapacitiesintheEU,whichcurrentlystandat269GWDCand219GW,respectively.3Inrecentyears,theEUsolarmarkethasgainedstrongtraction,registeringremarkablegrowthratesintheannualmarketbeyond40%inthelastthreeyears,andreaching50%to61GWin2023.Interestinsolarenergyisprimarilydrivenbyitsversatilityandcostcompetitiveness,inaperiodwheresoaringenergypricesdrivenbytheRussianinvasioninUkrainetookabigtollonEUbusinessesandhouseholds.SolarhasbeentheleadingpowergenerationsourceintheEUwhenitcomestonewlyinstalledcapacity,outcompetingallothertechnologies.Incontrasttosolar’sfastgrowthpace,theEUwindsectordemonstratedslowdevelopmentsinnewinstalledcapacityinrecentyears,from15GWin2020to18.3

DespitetheeffortsofEUMemberStatestodetachthemselvesfromRussiangasimportsandtotransitionawayfromfossilfueluse,gasmaintainsacentralroleintheEUenergysystemandpowersystem,witha16%shareofEUelectricitygenerationin2023andcontributingtoarelativelyhighlevelofaveragecarbonintensityintheEUelectricitymix,at242gCO2eq/kWh.Crucially,gas-firedunitsalsostillplayacentralroleregardingpriceformation.Inthemarginalpricingsystem,gasoftensetstheelectricityprice.In2023,thishappenedmorethan4,800outofthe8,760hoursoftheyear,whichis55%ofthetime.4Whilegaspriceswerelowerin2023comparedtotheunprecedentedhighsof2022,thisledtohighaverageelectricitypricesof94.9EUR/MWhacrossthebloc.Inthefirst5monthsof2024,averageEUelectricitypriceshavefurtherdecreasedto68EUR/MWh.

Currenttrendsinthepowersystema