世界经济论坛：行动成本-应对气候风险的CEO指南

Incollaborationwith

BostonConsultingGroup

TheCostofInaction:

ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk

ANNUALREPORTDECEMBER2024

Images:GettyImages,Pexels

Contents

Foreword3

Executivesummary4

1

Climateinactioncouldseverelyharmtheworldeconomy5

1.1Impactsofclimatechangeareincreasingandwillacceleratewithfurtherwarming9

1.2Climate-relatedeconomiccostshavemorethandoubledoverthepast20years11

1.3Furtherwarmingcouldputanincreasingstrainontheworldeconomy12

2

Corporatecostofglobalinaction:physicalrisksontheriseinthenexttwodecades14

2.1Climatechangeposessubstantialphysicalriskstoprivatesector15

2.2Physicalriskswilltranslateintomaterialcostswithinthenexttwodecades16

2.3Companiesrecognizephysicalrisksbutlikelyunderestimatetheirimpact18

2.4Corporateadaptationinvestmentshaveanincreasinglypositivebusinesscase20

3

Corporatecostofowninaction:transitionrisksareincreasing22

3.1Companiesthatdonotdecarbonizemayfaceincreasingtransitionrisks23

3.2Iftransitionrisksmaterialize,theycouldtranslateintomaterialfinanciallosses26

3.3Companiesseemtounderestimatethesefinanciallossesandoverestimate29

thecostofaction

4

Unlockingnewgrowthbyadvancingtheclimatetransition32

4.1Climateleadershipstillpaysoff33

4.2Inheavyindustry,climateleadersplayalong-termgame34

4.3Thewarmingclimateiscreatingamarketforadaptationsolutions35

5

TheCEOClimateLeadersGuidebook36

Step1

Conductacomprehensiveclimateriskassessment38

Step2

Managerisksinthecurrentbusinessportfolio41

Step3

Pivotyourbusinesstounlockopportunities44

Step4

Monitorrisksandreportonprogress45

Enabler1

Upgradeclimateriskgovernance46

Enabler2

Integrateclimateriskintobusiness-as-usual47

Enabler3

Developeffectiveclimaterisksystems47

6

Howcorporatesandgovernmentscanrisetothechallenge48

Appendix51

Contributors53

Endnotes55

Disclaimer

ThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumas

acontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultof

acollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorld

EconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.

©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk2

December2024

TheCostofInaction:

ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk

Foreword

PatrickHerhold

ManagingDirector&SeniorPartner,

BostonConsultingGroup

Climaterisksarenolongerdistantthreats–theyarematerializingtoday,withimpactsalreadyfeltacrossindustriesandregions.Companiesandsocieties

mustnowconfrontanewreality:theworldwe

operateintodaywilllookquitedifferenttomorrow.Lastyear,wecalledforsystemicglobalchange

tocombattheclimatechallenge.Thisyear,we

focusonsomethingequallycritical:howcorporateleadersshouldstepuptomanageclimate-relatedrisksandseizeopportunitiesaswenavigatethiscomplexlandscape.

Climateinactioncomesatacost,evenfor

businesses.Thecompaniesthatfailtoact

couldfacesubstantialoperational,financialandreputationalrisksinthenearterm,whileearly

moversarealreadyrealizingtangiblebenefitsfrom

adaptationanddecarbonization.Forthosewhotakeboldsteps,thereisapathtosustainedsuccess.

ThisreportisacalltoactionforCEOstoredefine

theirapproachtoclimaterisksandseizeclimate-

smartopportunities.Climateleadershipisnotaboutavoidingrisks–itisaboutbuildingresiliencefor

businessesandsocietiesandunlockingvalueina

PimValdre

Head,ClimateAction,WorldEconomicForum

transformingworld.Businessesfaceintensifyingphysicalrisksandtransitionrisksthatwilllikely

reshapeindustries,butwithinthesechallenges

liesthepotentialforgrowth,innovationand

competitiveadvantagetoshapeagrowingclimateadaptationmarket.

Featuringinnovativecasestudiesand

comprehensiveframeworksformanagingclimaterisks,thisreportequipsCEOsandtheircompanieswithablueprinttotakedecisivestepstowards

climatetransformation,ensuringresilience,innovationandlong-termsuccess.

TheWorldEconomicForum’s

Businessonthe

Edge:BuildingIndustryResiliencetoClimate

Hazards

furtherexploreshowresiliencestrategiescanbeembeddedacrosstheC-suite.

Nowisthetimeforbusinessleaderstoactboldlyanddecisively.Thedecisionsmadetodaywill

notonlyshapethefutureofindividualbusinessesbutwillalsodeterminethetrajectoryoftheglobaleconomyandthefutureofourplanetfordecadestocome.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk3

Executivesummary

Allcompanieswillfaceacostofclimateinaction:howtheirleadershippreparesforawarmerorgreenerworldwilldeterminewhethertheythriveorfallbehind.

Risingclimaterisksarealreadyimpactingtheglobaleconomyandthebusinesscasefor

collectiveactionisclear.Intensifyingclimate

eventswillcausesignificanteconomiccostsin

thenexttwodecades.However,climateinactioncouldcostfarmorethanglobalaction,asclimateadaptationandmitigationinvestmentscouldbe“repaid”fivetosixtimesinavoidedlossesand

damageinthelongrun.1

Physicalrisksofclimatechangearebecomingmaterialforbusinesses,puttingsignificantvalueatriskandincreasingpotentialopportunitycosts

inthemediumterm.Underthecurrentclimate

trajectory,companiesarebecomingincreasingly

exposedtobothsystemicrisksarisingfromlowerglobaleconomicgrowthandindividualphysical

risksthreateningsupplychainsandoperations.Forunpreparedbusinesses,individualphysicalrisks

alonecouldput5%to25%oftheir2050EBITDAatrisk,dependingonsectorandgeography,withinfrastructure-heavysectorsbeingmostexposed.

Thecascadingeffectsofsuchlosseswould

ultimatelydisruptcommunities,withimpactsonjobs,lives,livelihoodsandthecostofgoodsandservices.

Transitionrisksforbusinessesarealso

significant.Afteradecadeofverysignificant(albeitinsufficient)progress,ambitiousclimateactionhasrecentlyseenmorepublicresistance,triggering

doubtsaboutthepaceofdecarbonizationandthefuturecourseofclimatepolicies.Butasclimate

changeaffectsthelifeandwealthofpeopleand

businessesmoreseriously,relyingonthestatus

quoisariskybettomakeandbusinessesneedtoprepareforabroaderrangeofdevelopments.

Inascenarioofacceleratingclimateaction,

unpreparedcompaniesrisksignificantlyhighercostpressurefromcarbonpricingorcomparableregulation,write-downsontheirfossilassetbase

andamuchfaster-than-expecteddemanddeclineforfossilfuelsandtechnologies.Undera“wellbelow2°Cpath”,theimpactofcarbonpricingalonecouldcreateadditionalcostsequivalentto50%ofEBITDAincertainemission-intensivesectors.Ascapital

marketsrespondtolong-termthreatstofuture

performance,earlysignalsofheightenedtransitionriskscouldaffectcompanyvaluationswellbeforethoserisksfullymaterialize.

Corporateinactionalsocomesatacost:thereisaclearbusinesscaseforadaptationanda

bettercaseformitigationthanmostmightthink.Companiesreportthattheircurrentadaptationandresilienceinvestmentscouldyieldbetween$2and$19foreverydollarinvested.Onmitigation,while

fulldecarbonizationacrosssectorscomesatacost,sustainabilityleaderscanstillfindcost-efficientwaystoreduceemissionsintheshortterm.Addressingtheserisksalsoinformscompanieshowtonavigatethetransitionandadaptationopportunitiesand

developinnovativeofferingsfitforawarmerandgreenerworld.

Companiesneedtochangethewaythey

manageclimaterisksandopportunities,as

outlinedintheCEOGuidebookpresentedatthe

endofthisreport.Climate-relatedincidentsand

marketshiftsarehardtopredictanddiscontinuous,buthavepotentiallyhigh-impactconsequences.

Whilemanycompaniesareawareoftheserisks,mostareinsufficientlyprepared:

–Climaterisksandopportunitiesshouldbea

criticalcomponentofcompanystrategy,guidingriskmanagement,financial,strategicand

operationaldecisionsatalllevels.Understandingclimaterisksiskeyformaintainingbusiness

resilience,unlockingopportunitiesandensuringacompetitiveedge.

–Businessesneedtorampupscenariothinkingtobepreparedwellaheadforbotha3°Cworldandafuturewithaccelerateddecarbonization.

–Climatetransitionandresilienceplansto

managetheserisksshouldbeinformedbyaquantifiedassessmentofunderlyingclimaterisksacrossarangeofscenarios.

–Capitalallocationshouldmatchclimaterisk

strategy,balancingshort-termprofitswithlong-termstrategicresilienceandoptionality.

–Climateriskmanagementshouldbecomepartofbusiness-as-usualforallemployees,astheseimpactsarefarreachingandlikelytoinfluencemanyaspectsofbusinessoperations.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk4

1

Climateinaction

couldseverelyharmtheworldeconomy

Climatechangehascausedover$3.6trillionindamagesince2000.Withouturgent

actionglobalGDPcoulddropbyupto22%cumulativelyby2100.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk5

FIGURE

AtmosphericCO2isincreasing

1

AtmosphericCO2concentrationacrossmillennia…andsincetheindustrialrevolution

partspermillion(ppm)partspermillion(ppm)

June2024:

427ppm

1959:

316ppm

8007006005004003002001000175018001850190019502020

Millenniabeforetoday

Sources:NationalOceanic&AtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),NASA’sGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies.

June2024:

427ppm

FIGURE

Ourplanetisgettingwarmer

2

Temperatureanomaly

°C

+1.2°Cin2024

18751890190519201935195019651980199520102024

Annualmean

Note:Globalaverageland-seatemperatureanomalyrelativetothe1961-1990averagetemperature.

.

Source:MetOfficeHadleyCentre

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk6

FIGURE3Frequencyandintensityofextremeeventsrisewithtemperature

+5.1°C

+1.2°C

5.6x

4.1x

2.8x

+30%

1.7x

1.3x

0x

Increaseinfrequencyandintensityofextremeevents1underdifferentwarmingscenarios

xforincreaseinfrequency,°Cforincreaseintemperature,%forincreaseinprecipitationintensity

9.4x

Hotter

temperatures

+2.6°C

2.7x

+1.9°C

Increaseinprecipitation

1.

+14%

+7%

+1°C+1.5°C+2°C+4°C

Globalwarmingscenarios

1.Vs.1850-1900average;variationinfrequencyandintensityforextremeheateventor1-dayprecipitationeventthatoccurredonaverageonceevery10yearsinaclimatewithouthumaninfluence.

Source:IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).

Currenttemperatureincrease

0°C

(1850-1900average)

+10%

1.5x

FIGURE4Someregionswillsuffermorethanothers–aglimpseofa3°Cworld

Averagetemperature

Changeintotalannualprecipitation

Temperature(0C)

Changeinprecipitation(mm)

Nodata-30—01—78—1415—2526—3132—60

Nodata<-100-100—-51-50—-26-25—+24+25—+49+50—+100>+100

Likelihoodof1year-plusdroughtsChangeinfrequencyofhistorical“1-in-100-year”storm

Annuallikelihood(%)

Timesmore/lessfrequent

Nodata0—1011—3334—5051—6768—9091—100Nodata<1123—4>4

Source:AdaptedfromtheProbableFuturesclimatetool.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk7

FIGURE5Severalearthsystemstippingpointsriskacceleratingwarmingirreversibly

1.4-5°C

Borealforest

southerndieback

0.8-3°C

MeltdownofGreenlandicesheet

1–2.3°C

Borealpermafrostabruptthaw

1.1–3.8°C

StandstillofNorth

Atlanticsubpolargyre

1-1.5°C

Warm-water

coralreefsdie-off

1.4-8°C

StandstillofAtlantic

meridionaloverturningcirculation(AMOC)

1.5-3°C

Andesglacierretreat

2-6°C

Amazonrainforestdieback

>5°C

EastAntarctic

1-3°C

WestAntarctic

icesheetcollapse

icesheetcollapse

ConfidencelevelsHighMediumLow

Note:Earthsystemtippingpointsaredisplayedasafunctionoftemperatureincrease,althoughotherfactors(e.g.deforestation,precipitationlevels,watersalinity)alsoplayasignificantroleintriggeringthem.FiveEarthsystems(highlighted)areatimmediateriskoftippingintoirreversibledecline,acceleratingwarmingona

planetaryscale.

Source:GlobalTippingPointsReport,Lenton,T.etal.,BostonConsultingGroup(BCG)analysis.

FIGURE6Thenextthreedecadesofemissionswillshapethetemperatureofthenext10millennia

~5°C~4°C~3°C~2°C

Today

Note:RCP8.5scenariorepresentsahigh-emissions“business-as-usual”scenariocharacterizedbysustainedincreasesingreenhousegasemissions.

Source:Clark,P.etal.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk8

AtmosphericCO2concentration

partspermillion(ppm)

Anthropocene

2100(RCP8.5)

Holocene

-20,000-15,000-10,000-5,00005,00010,000

Yearsvs.today

1.1

oCarbondioxideconcentrationsinsummer2024hitalevelnotpreviouslyseeninatleast3

millionyears.

Impactsofclimatechangeareincreasingandwillacceleratewithfurtherwarming

Theeffectsofhuman-inducedclimatechangearealreadybeingfelttoday

Sincethebeginningofindustrialization,about2,300billiontonnes(gigatonnesorGt)ofanthropogenic

CO2havebeenreleasedintotheatmosphere,2withover900GtCO2(approximately40%ofthattotal)addedwithinthelastthreedecades.3ThispushedtheCO2concentrationbeyond427partspermillioninthesummerof20244—alevelnotpreviously

seeninatleast3millionyears5(seeFigure1).

Asaresult,averageglobaltemperatureshave

alreadyincreasedapproximately1.2°Cversus

pre-industriallevels6(seeFigure2).Meanwhile,

accordingtotheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization,thefrequencyofnaturaldisasterssuchasextremeheat,floods,droughts,stormsandwildfireshas

increasedfive-foldoverthepast50years.7

Whileitisdifficulttoattributeanyoneindividual

disastertoclimatechange,thereisveryhigh

certaintythattheincreasingfrequencyhasbeen

stronglyinfluencedbyman-madeemissions.8Forexample,theEuropean2019heatwave,which

causedapproximately2,500excessdeathsacrossthecontinent,wasmade10to100timesmore

likelybyhuman-inducedclimatechange.9ExtremerainfallinBrazil(RioGrandedoSul)inAprilandMay2024ledtocatastrophicflooding,displacingover

580,000people.Human-inducedclimatechangemadethiseventtwiceaslikelyandincreaseditsintensityby6%to9%.10

Asglobaltemperaturescontinuetorise,sowilltherateandseverityofextremeweatherevents

Aslongashumanitycontinuestoaddgreenhousegasestotheatmosphere,globaltemperatureswillcontinuetoincrease.Thiswillnotonlyincrease

thefrequencybutalsotheintensityofextreme

weatherevents.Warmertemperaturesshift

historicalweatherpatterns,resultinginincreasing

evaporation,lowersoilmoisture,worseningdroughtconditionsandagreaterriskofdevastatingwildfires.Warmeroceansprovidemoreenergyforstorms,

intensifyingboththeirfrequencyandstrength.

Warmeraircanholdmoremoisture,increasing

rainfallamountsandfloodingrisks.Theworldwill

alsoexperiencemorefrequentextremeheatevents,withhigherpeaktemperatures(seeFigure3).

Theseeventsalreadycostlives,increasedamagetoinfrastructureandthreatenglobalfoodsystems(seeTable1).Theyalsomakeoursocietiesmoreunstablebydisruptinglivelihoods,displacing

populationsandstrainingresources.Thelikelyresultingpoliticalinstabilitywouldmakeglobalclimate-relatedchallengesevenmoredifficulttosolve.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk9

TABLE1

Climatehazardswillincreasinglydisruptourwayofliving

Aglimpseof2050

Globalscientificprojections

Socio-economicimpact

1-in-1,000-dayhotextremes5xaslikelywith0.85°Cwarming7

300m+peoplecouldbeaffectedbyheatwavesinIndia1

~60kdeathsinEuropeanheatwave

(2022)8

Extremeheat

5xincreaseinannualfloodlossesexpectedinEU2

80%chanceofdecade-long

droughtsintheUSstarting20503

~1.3mBangladeshiscouldforcedtomigrateduetosea-levelrise4

3xincreaseinannualprobabilityoftyphoonsinTokyo5

~35%increaseinareaburntyearlybybushfiresinSydney6

70%ofpopulationcouldface5xsurgeinfloodimpactsat+4.0°C9

Current1-in-100-yeardroughtscouldoccurevery2-5years11

Globalmeansealevelexpectedtorise1mby100perRCP8.513

Hurricanefrequencycoulddoubleby205016

Wildfireslikelytoincreasebyathird18

Foodlosttodroughtcanfeed81mpeopledaily12(=populationof

Germany)

Jakartaissinking~28cmyearly14&facing$186mp.a.inflood

damage15

~8,500FTEjobs&$1.5bnofvaluelostinCycloneDebbie(2017)17

2021floodinglosseswere$18.4bninChina&$3.2bninIndia10

Canadianwildfiresdisplaced230kpeople&claimed8lives(2023)19

Sea-levelrise

Drought

Wildfire

Storm

Flood

Note:RCP8.5scenariorepresentsahigh-emissions“business-as-usual”scenariocharacterizedbysustainedincreasesin

greenhousegasemissions;FTE=full-timeequivalent.Sources:1.UniversityofCambridge,2.EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,3.NASA,4.DeLellis,P.etal.andNewYorkUniversity,5.Bloemendaal,N.etal.,6.HotspotFireProject,7.Fischer,E.etal.,

8.Multiplesourcesestimate55,000-72,000deathtoll,9.Alfieri,L.etal.,10.WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO),11.

Naumann,G.etal.,12.WorldBank,13.Kulp,S.etal.,14.NationalGeographic,15.Budiyono,Y.etal.,16.Bloemendaal,N.etal.,17.Lenzen,M.etal.,18.UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),19.BBC.

Today,fiveEarthsystemsareatimmediaterisk

Rainfed

agriculturecovers95%ofcultivatedlandandaccountsfor10%-70%of

theGDPofmostlocaleconomies.

Someregionswillsuffermorethanothers

oftippingintoirreversibledecline,accelerating

warmingonaplanetaryscale(seeFigure5):13

theseincludethemeltingoftheGreenlandand

WestAntarcticicesheets,thethawingofboreal

permafrost,theextinctionofwarm-watercoralreefsandthestandstilloftheNorthAtlanticsubpolar

gyre(partoftheAtlanticMeridionalOverturning

CirculationorAMOC),whichplaysavitalrolein

regulatingtheclimateofWesternEuropeaswellasglobalweatherpatterns.

Whenglobaltemperaturessurpass1.5°Cabove

pre-industriallevels,irreversiblewarmingwillbecomearealityassomeoftheEarth’slandscapesturn

intonetemittersofcarbon(suchaspermafrost)or

acceleratorsofheating(suchasthelossofseaice).TheWorldEconomicForumpublication

Business

ontheEdge:BuildingIndustryResiliencetoClimate

Hazards

providesadetailedbriefingonEarthsystemtippingpoints14andtheirimplicationsforbusiness

riskacrosslandscapes,supplychainsandsocieties.InthisneweraoftheAnthropocene,thewarming

triggeredoverthecomingdecadeswillshape

Earth’sclimateformillennia(seeFigure6),makingitaglobalimperativetounderstandandrespondtoEarthsystemsdisruption.

Althoughcontributingtheleasttoglobalwarming,low-andmiddle-incomecountrieswillgenerally

behithardest(seeFigure4).Thesecountriesfacethehighestaverageriskofextremeweather;but

compoundingthisrisk,theyhaveeconomiesthataremoredependentonvulnerableactivitiessuch

asoutdoormanuallabourandagriculture,their

infrastructuretendstobeweakerandtheyhave

fewerresourcestoinvestinadaptation.InSub-

SaharanAfrica,forexample,160millionpeople

alreadylivewithwaterscarcitytoday;11thisis

expectedtoworsenaswarmingintensifies.Atthesametime,vulnerablerainfedagriculturecurrentlycovers95%ofcultivatedlandandaccountsfor

10%to70%oftheGDPofmostlocaleconomies.12

OToday,fiveEarthsystemsareat

immediaterisk

oftippinginto

irreversibledecline,accelerating

warmingonaplanetaryscale.

However,developednationswillalsobeincreasinglyaffected.IntheSouthwestoftheUnitedStates

(US),risingtemperaturesandmorefrequent

droughtsareexpectedtoincreasecompetitionforwaterresources,affectingcities,agricultureand

energyproduction,whiletheSoutheastislikelytobehitbymoreregularstormsandfloods,becomingathreattolifeandinfrastructureanddepreciating

valuesofrealestate.

TheCostofInaction:ACEOGuidetoNavigatingClimateRisk10

Climate-relatedeconomiccostshavemorethandoubledoverthepast20years

1.2

oClimate-relateddisastershave

causedmorethan$3.6trillionin

economicdamagesince2000,morethanhalfofwhichisattributedto

storms–this

figureverylikelyunderestimatesactualcosts.

tomorethan$1trillionbetween2020and2024

(seeFigure7).EarlyestimatesforHurricaneHelene,whichwreakedhavocinSoutheasternUSstates

inSeptember2024,indicatethatthiseventalonemightberesponsibleforover$100billionworthofdamage,16makingitoneofthecostliesthurricanesinUShistory.Anincreasingfrequencyandintensityofsucheventswouldmeanthatcostsarelikelytoescalatefurther.

Theimpactoffuturedisasterscanalreadybefelt

Insurancepremiumsforclimateresilienceand

protectionfrom“naturalcatastrophes”are

estimatedtoincreasebyaround50%until2030,reachingatotalof$200billionto$250billion.17Ascompaniespullbackcoverageinvulnerableareas,propertiesincertainpartsoftheworldareessentiallybecominguninsurable.18

Climatechangeisalreadycausingsignificanteconomiccosts

AccordingtoEM-DAT’sinternationaldisaster

database,climate-relateddisastershavecausedmorethan$3.6trillionineconomicdamagesince2000,morethanhalfofwhichisattributedto

storms.15Thisfigureverylikelyunderestimates

actualcosts,asitprimarilyreflectsdirectdamagesuchasinfrastructuredestruction,insured

lossesandimmediateeconomicimpacts,while

excludingindirecteffectssuchaslonger-term

healthconsequences,lossofproductivityand

naturalresourcedepletion.Theeconomicstrainof

climatechangeisalreadymassive,withasignificantportion,especiallytheunaccountedindirecteffects,currentlybornebysocietyatlarge.

Sincetheturnofthecentury,averagedamagecostshavemorethandoubled

Thecostsofclimate-relateddamageincreased

fromaround$450billionbetween2000and2004

Economiccostofclimate-relateddisastershasmorethandoubledsince2000

FIGURE7

Economiccostofclimate-relateddisasters1

($billion)five-yearsumofreportedcostofdisastersfrom2000-20242

1,023

247

914

192

746

664

621

317

599

115

458

482

3