国际能源署IEA：2030年中国的电力系统灵活性需求报告（英文版）

MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeeds

inChinaby2030

Amarket-basedpolicytoolkitforthe15thFive-YearPlan

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MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeedsinChinaby2030Abstract

Amarket-basedpolicytoolkitforthe15thFive-YearPlan

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Abstract

ThePeople’sRepublicofChinaisdeployingrecordlevelsofwindandsolarPV,challengingtheflexibilityofitspowersystem.Atthesametime,Chinahasbeenmakingbigstepstowardsimplementingmarkets,andthegoalsannouncedin2020ofcarbondioxideemissionspeakingbefore2030andcarbonneutralitybefore2060haveaddedmomentumtoexpandtheirfootprint.

ThisreportinvestigatestheevolvingflexibilityrequirementsofChina’spowersystemasittransitionstowardsacleanerenergymix.Theanalysisaimstopresentamarket-basedpolicytoolkitthatcanenhanceflexibility,especiallyduringthe15thFive-YearPlanperiod(2026-2030),focusingonshort-termflexibilitysolutionsfortheintegrationofvariablerenewableenergy.

ThoughthemainaudienceofthisreportispolicymakersinChinaandexpertsfromaroundtheworldintendingtocontributetopowersectorreforms,thereportalsoaimstobeinformativeforgeneralistreaders.

MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeedsinChinaby2030Acknowledgements

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThestudywaspreparedbytheRenewableIntegrationandSecureElectricityUnit(RISE)intheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurityoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyJacquesWarichetundertheguidanceofPabloHevia-Koch,HeadofRISE.

ThemainauthorsofthereportwereEdwardMcDonald,CamillePaillard,JacquesWarichetandJiapengZheng.ThemodellingworkwasperformedbyEdwardMcDonald,withthesupportofCraigHart.IsaacPortugal,YuheiIto(formerIEAanalyst),OskarSchickhofer(formerIEAanalyst)andManqiXu(consultant)contributedtotheanalysis.HyejeongLeeprovidedessentialsupport.OtherIEAcolleaguesprovidedvaluableinputsandfeedback(inalphabeticalorder):JulieDallard,RebeccaMcKimm,BrianMotherway,KeisukeSadamoriandJunYang.

ThisreportwasproducedwiththefinancialassistanceoftheEnergyFoundationundertheIEA’sCleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme(CETP).TheauthorswouldliketothanktheEnergyFoundationChinateam,inparticularYongpingZhang,FengZhouandZhuoLifortheirhelpinliaisingwithChineseexperts.

Theauthorsaregratefulforthecommentsandfeedbackfromthefollowingexpertswhoreviewedthereport(inalphabeticalorder):

PhilipAndrews-Speed(OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies),DayuChen(ChinaHuanengGroup),PeterBørreEriksen(EaEnergyAnalyses),SharonFeng(WoodMackenzie),ShuoGao(RMI),FangHan(ChinaElectricityCouncil),AndersHove(OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies),ShizhiHe(ChinaSouthernGrid),XueHan(StateCouncilDRC),FangJia(ShandongEnergyRegulatoryOfficeoftheNEA),NanJiang(TsinghuaUniversity),AlvinLin(NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil),MingmingLiu(NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil),YonggangLi(NARITechnology),YujingLiu(RMI),LiMa(StateGridERI),QiuyangMa(StateGridERI),YaoMeng(TsinghuaUniversity),YanQin(OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies),FengSong(RenminUniversityofChina),JoonkyungSeong(TheWorldBank),KaareSandholt(EnergyResearchInstituteofAcademyofMacroeconomicResearch),XunpengShi(UniversityofTechnologyofSydney),KevinTu(Agora),HelenaUhde(EaEnergyAnalyses),ChunsenWang(ChinaHuanengGroup),DiWu(PekingUniversity),YangWang(StateGridDispatchCenter),ChunxiangYang(StateGridGansuElectricPowerCompany),MuyiYang(EmberClimate),ZhenglinYang(ChinaElectricPowerResearchInstitute),FengZhou(EnergyFoundation),GaoZhang(NEA),ShengnanZhang(BeijingPowerTradingCenter),

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HaiwangZhong(TsinghuaUniversity),PengZou(StateGridShanxiElectricPowerCompany),ZhizhongZhu(BeijingLambdaTechnology).

TheauthorsarealsogratefultotheInstituteofClimateChangeandSustainableDevelopmentatTsinghuaUniversityforco-hostingtheworkshopinBeijingon16April2024andtotheexpertswhoparticipated(inalphabeticalorder):

ErshunDu(TsinghuaUniversity),WenjieDong(DongfangElectronics),MaxDupuy(RegulatoryAssistanceProject),WeiFeng(ShenzhenInstituteofAdvancedTechnology),GangHan(ZhejiangDevelopment&PlanningInstitute),AndersHove(OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies),ZhileiHua(NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity),XinJin(ChinaSouthernGrid),FurongLi(UniversityofBath),XianzhuoLiu(ChinaSouthernGrid),ZhuLi(BeijingPowerTradingCentre),YujingLiu(RMI),LiMa(StateGridERI),ZhouQin(EnergyFoundation),XunpengShi(UniversityofTechnologySydney),HaohaoWang(GuangdongPowerTradingCentre),JiahaiYuan(NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity),XiaoxiaoYu(GlobalEnergyInterconnectionDevelopmentandCooperationOrganization),YongpingZhang(EnergyFoundation).

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankexpertsfromtheChinaElectricPowerPlanning&EngineeringInstituteforreviewingandhelpingwiththeproject,particularlyLanLi,ShunchaoWang,RuiqingZhang,YangCao,JinxiuHou,YinheBu,YandaHuoandXiaoxiaoYang.

ThanksgototheIEA’sCommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelpinproducingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlyJethroMullen,CurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,LivGaunt,PoeliBojorquez,IsabelleNonain-SemelinandClaraVallois.

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankElspethThomsonforeditingthemanuscript.

Finally,theauthorswouldliketoexpresstheirgratitudetotheIEA’sChinaDeskfortheircontinuoussupport,aswellastoitsStrategicInitiativesOfficeformakingthisstudypossible.SpecialthankstoSeniorAdvisorJunYangforheradvicethroughoutthestudyandforfacilitatingcontactswithChineseexperts.

ThisworkreflectstheviewsoftheIEASecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofIEA’sindividualmembercountriesoroftheEnergyFoundationorofanyparticularcontributor.

Commentsandquestionsonthisreportarewelcomeandcanbeaddressedtojacques.warichet@.

MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeedsinChinaby2030Tableofcontents

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 7

Backgroundandmotivation 11

Structureofthereport 13

Chapter1.PowersystemflexibilityinChina 14

Thegrowingneedforflexibility 14

Assessmentofflexibilityneedsin2022and2030 16

FlexibilityresourcesinChinatowards2030 21

BarrierstoflexibilityinChina 40

Chapter2.Unlockingflexibilitythroughpowermarkets 42

Powermarketsaskeytoflexibility 42

CurrentstateofpowermarketsinChinaandbarrierstoflexibility 42

Unlockingflexibilitythroughmarketmechanisms 63

Thepathtoflexibilitythroughmarketreforms 74

Chapter3.Apolicytoolkitforflexibility 76

Buildingonkeyinsights:barrierstoflexibilityinChina’spowersystem 76

Policytoolkitforflexibilityandkeyrecommendationsforthe15thFive-YearPlan 76

Stepbystepguidefortoolkitimplementation 82

Thepathforward 88

Annex 90

Modellingmethodology 90

Abbreviationsandacronyms 96

Unitsofmeasurement 97

MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeedsinChinaby2030Executivesummary

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Executivesummary

China’srapidwindandsolarPVdeploymentisdrivinganincreasingneedforsystemflexibility

TherapidwindandsolarPVgrowthisdrivinganurgentneedforsystemflexibilityinthePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter,“China”).China'spowersystemisundergoingaprofoundtransformation,spurredbyasharpincreaseinvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)capacityandtheelectrificationofvarioussectors.Between2022and2030,short-termflexibilityfordailyoperations–characterisedbyhourlyanddailyrampingrequirements–isexpectedtotriple,primarilyduetotherapidexpansionofsolarPV.

Powersectorreformsareacceleratingthedeploymentofmarket-basedmechanisms.Reformssince2015havebeengivingmarketsagrowingrole.Overthepast12months,therehavebeennotableachievements,suchastheofficiallaunchoffourprovincialspotmarketsandtheinter-provincialspotmarket.In2022,theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission’sDocumentNo.118pushedfortheestablishmentofaunifiednationalpowermarketsystem,incentivisingmarketintegrationacrossprovincesandregions.

Well-designedpowermarketreformsarecriticaltounlockingflexibilityandmeeting2030energytargets.AsChinatransitionstoamarket-basedpowersystem,powermarketsneedtobedesignedtoprioritiseflexibilityanddeployedinaco-ordinatedway.IfChinaistomeetitsobjectivetopeakcarbonemissionsbefore2030,non-fossilresourcessuchashydropower,batterystorageanddemandresponsecouldfulfilnearly60%oftheshort-termflexibilityneedsin2030,enabledbywell-functioningspotandancillaryservicesmarkets.Aunifiednationalpowermarketsystemwillalsounlocksystem-wideflexibility,enablingefficientresourcesharingacrossprovincesandregions.Delaysinmarketimplementationcouldprolongrelianceonthermalplants,jeopardisingprogresstowardsamoresustainableenergysystem.

The15thFive-YearPlan(2026-2030)presentsapivotalopportunityforChinatoimplementcriticalpowermarketreforms.ThisperiodiscrucialforChinatosolidifyitscommitmenttoreformsthatsupportsystemflexibilityandenabletheintegrationofvastamountsofVRE.Achievingthistransformationwhilemaintaininggridstabilityandreliabilitywillrequireaparadigmshifttowardsplanningandoperatingpracticescentredaroundmarketsandflexibility.

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MarketreformsareneededtoensurethatChinameetsitsflexibilityneedsin2030andstaysontrackwithitsclimategoals

Marketdesignsmustprovideeffectivepricesignalstoincentiviseflexibility.Currently,over90%oftradedelectricityinChinaistiedupinmedium-tolong-term(MLT)contracts,whichfixpricesandvolumesoverextendedperiods,preventingadjustmentsthatreflectreal-timesystemneeds.Theunderdevelopmentofspotandancillaryservicesmarketsinmanyprovincesandregionsfurtherhampersflexibility,limitingincentivestorespondtochangingsystemconditions.

Mostoftheneededflexibilitycanbeunlockedthroughimprovementstothedispatchingpractices.ImplementingefficienteconomicdispatchattheprovincialandregionallevelsyieldsthemostsubstantialgainsinflexibilityandVREintegration.Bydevelopingandexpandingspotmarketswiththerightdesignfeatures,economicdispatchprioritisestheuseofresourcesbasedontheirmarginalcost,ensuringcost-effectivepowersystemoperation.

Regulatoryreformsshouldfocusonharmonisingpolicyframeworksandexpandingmarketparticipation.Requirementsandrewardsforprovisionofflexibilityoftendifferacrossprovincesandregions,creatingbarrierstoentryforflexibilityprovidersandhinderingthescalabilityofsolutions.Newandsmallerplayersfacerestrictedaccesstomarkets,reducingcompetitionandinnovation.Byfacilitatinginter-provincialmarketaccessandbetterintegratinginter-provincialtradeintoprovincialsystems,Chinacanbroadenitsflexibilitybaseandenhancecross-regionalcooperation.

Expandingandoptimisingtheuseofinfrastructureisessentialtoachieveanationalmarketsystem.China’sinter-provincialanddistributiongridinfrastructureisfallingbehindtherequirementsofaflexibleandmodernpowersystem.Underutilisedbatterystorageassetshighlightthemisalignmentbetweenflexibilityneedsandthebusinessmodelsfortheseassets.Thisunderscorestheimportanceofscalingupthenecessaryinfrastructure,includinggridsanddigitaltechnologies,toalignwithChina’sdecarbonisationgoals.

Reformsshouldaccompanycoalplantsintheirtransitionfromenergysupplierstoprovidersofflexibilityservices.Whilecoalplantswillcontinuetoplayakeyroleinprovidinggridstabilityandflexibility,theircontributionintermsofelectricitygenerationwillhavetodecline.Thisshiftrequirestargetedpoliciesthatsupportcoalplantsinbecomingprovidersofsystemservices,suchasfrequencyregulationandrampingsupport,andseasonalflexibility,toensureasmoothtransitiontowardsamoreflexibleandlow-carbonpowersystem.

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Apolicytoolkitforthe15thFive-YearPlantounlockflexibilitythroughpowermarkets

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Apolicytoolkitforthe15thFive-YearPlancanunlockflexibilityattheregionalandnationallevels

Chinaurgentlyneedsacomprehensivepolicytoolkittoaddressitsgrowingflexibilitychallengesandmanagethecomplexityofitspowersector.Identifyingtherightreformsisnoteasy,giventhesector’scoverageofavastgeography,diverseclimatezonesandthevaryinglevelsofVREpenetrationacrossregions.Differentareasfaceuniquechallenges,requiringtailoredpoliciesbasedonlocalconditionswhileco-ordinatingreformsacrosskeymarketsegments,includingMLTcontracts,spotmarkets,ancillaryservicesandcapacityremunerationmechanisms.Withoutaunified,carefullytargetedstrategy,fragmenteddevelopmentcouldpreventChinafromachievingsystem-wideflexibility.

Thetoolkitprovidesapracticalframeworkwithtailoredrecommendationsforachievingflexibilityby2030.Recommendationscoverallmarketsegments,ensuringeachmarketfulfilsitsprimaryfunctionwithoutinterferingnegativelywithotherareas.Thetoolkitalsosupportsprovincialandregionalimplementation,helpingprovincesandregionsprioritisereformsbasedontheVREpenetrationlevelsandthematurityoftheirspotmarket.

Stronggovernanceandinstitutionalcapacitywillbecrucialforthesuccessfulimplementationofthepolicytoolkit.Whilethetoolkitoutlinesnecessaryreformsforflexibility,thebroadersuccesswilldependonarobustgovernanceframework,institutionalcapacityandacommitmenttoambitiousreforms.Withfirmregulatorysupport,Chinacanensurethatthetoolkithelpsmeetitsclimateandenergygoalswhilesecuringareliable,efficientandsustainablepowersystem.

MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeedsinChinaby2030Backgroundandmotivation

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Backgroundandmotivation

Atransformingpowersectorlandscape

InJuly2024,thePeople’sRepublicofChinareachedasignificantmilestoneinitscleanenergytransition,

surpassing1200GW

ofwindandsolarPVcapacity–sixyearsaheadofitstarget.TheIEAprojectsthisfigurewillriseto

4232GWby2030,

contributing39%ofthecountry’selectricitygeneration,upfrom15%in2023.Thisrapidgrowthpresentsnewchallenges,particularlyconcerningsystemflexibility.Asvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)expands,balancingthegridtoaccommodatefluctuatingsupplyanddemandisbecomingincreasinglydifficult.Onthedemandside,theelectricityshareinfinalenergyconsumptionhadrisenatarecordpace,from11%in2000toabout

28%

in2023,driveninlargepartbyelectrificationofheatingandcoolinginthebuildingsectors.ThistrendissettocontinuewiththerapiduptakeofEVs.

Inthiscontext,thegovernmentissuednew

guidingopinions

inearly2024toco-ordinateandoptimisethedeploymentanduseofflexibilityresources,especiallythroughmarket-drivenmechanisms.Whilesignificantprogresshasbeenmadeonthetechnologicalside–suchascoalplantretrofits,batterystorageandultra-highvoltage(UHV)transmission–advancementsinpowermarketsandregulatoryframeworksarecrucialtoconverttheserecord-breakingrenewableinstallationsintotheactualdecarbonisationofitspowersystem.

Withtherapiddeploymentofwindandsolar,China'spowersystemisundergoingasignificanttransformation,requiringsubstantialadjustmentsby2030.Thistransformationwillbeevenmorepronouncedinregionswithabundantrenewableenergyresources.Astheshareofwindandsolarincreases,theimpactonthepowersystemisinitiallymanageablethroughincrementalpolicyadjustments.However,asChinacontinuestodeployVREatahighpace,afundamentalshiftinpowersystemplanning,operation,andfinancingwillberequiredtoefficientlyintegratehigherlevelsofwindandsolar.

Flexibilityasacornerstoneofelectricitysecurity

Electricitysecurityreferstothesystem'sabilitytoensureanuninterruptedsupplyofelectricitywhilewithstandingandrecoveringfromdisturbances.Itencompassesvariouselements,includingstability,adequacyandresilienceagainstbothcyberandphysicaldisruptions,includingthosecausedbyclimateevents.Flexibilityiscriticaltoelectricitysecurityasakeyenablerofadequacy,providingthesystemwiththeabilitytomaintainacontinuousbalancebetweenelectricitysupplyand

MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeedsinChinaby2030Backgroundandmotivation

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demand,evenduringunexpecteddisruptions.Thisabilityisessentialformaintaininggridstabilityandpreventinglarge-scalefailures.

Multipledimensionsofelectricitysecurity

Operationalsecurity

Systemadequacy

Governanceand

marketarrangements

Marketdesign

Stability

Cybersecurity

Physicalresilience

Resource

and

network

adequacy

Diversity

Flexibility

Marketstructure

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Thereisnointernationallystandardiseddefinitionofpowersystemflexibility.Differentorganisationssuchasthe

IEA,

RMI

and

NorthChinaElectricPower

University,

applyvaryingdefinitions,timescalesandassessmentmethods.However,acommonapproachistocategoriseflexibilityacrossdifferenttimescales,withtherampingratesofnetloadoftenusedtoillustratesystemflexibilityateachtimescale.TheIEAdefinespowersystemflexibilityastheabilityofapowersystemtoreliablyandcost-effectivelymanagethevariabilityanduncertaintyofsupplyanddemandacrossallrelevanttimescales.

Affordabilityisanothercrucialdimensionofelectricitysecurity,particularlyinthecontextofenergytransitions.Electricitypricesareaffectedbyfactorssuchasfuelcosts,gridinfrastructureinvestmentsandthecostsassociatedwithflexibility.Well-designedelectricitymarketscanhelpmanagethesecostsandensureaffordabilitybyprovidingaccuratepricesignals,promotingcompetitionandincentivisingflexibilityonthesupplyanddemandsides.

TowardsanationalsystemofmarketsinChina

Sincethe2002powersectorreform

(DocumentNo.5)

,Chinahasbeentransitioningfromacentrallyplannedsystemtoonedrivenbymarketmechanisms.The2015reform

(DocumentNo.9)

markedaturningpointbyencouragingpowermarketstoimprovegenerationefficiencyandadapttotheevolvingpowerlandscape.Thisreformgrantedprovincesautonomyindesigningandimplementingmarketpilotstailoredtolocalconditions.Recognisingtheneedforco-ordination,

DocumentNo.118

in2022setoutastrategyforestablishingaunifiednationalpowermarketsystemby2030.Whilenotrequiringharmonisationoftheexistingmarketdesigns,thestrategyprioritisesco-ordinationandexpansionofinter-provincialandregionaltrade.

Giventhecomplexitiesoffullmarketintegration,theIEApreviouslyproposedadopting

secondarymarketmodels

asapragmaticapproach.Thesemodels

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enablelocalmarketstoretainautonomywhilequicklycapturingthebenefitsofregionalco-ordination,forexamplebycreatinganationalmarketfortradingsurplusgenerationoroptimisingpowerflowsbetweenregions.

AddressingChina’sflexibilityneedsoverthenextFive-YearPlan

China’spowersectorreformsdemonstratetheimportanceofpacingandcarefullyselectingmarketmechanismstobalanceaffordability,securityanddecarbonisation.Inthe15thFive-YearPlan(FYP)periodfrom2026to2030,acomprehensiveapproachwillbeneededtoaddresstheflexibilitychallengesofafast-transformingpowersystemandmeetitsclimateandenergygoals.Thisapproachwillrequireinfrastructureupgrades,suchassmartgridsandenergystorage,aswellasinvestmentsinenergyefficiency,advancedforecastingtoolsandmarketreformsthatvalueandincentiviseflexibilityservices.

Structureofthereport

ThisreportprovidespolicyrecommendationsforsystemflexibilityapplicableinthetimeframeofChina’s15thFive-YearPlan(2026–2030)andevaluatestheflexibilityneedsofChina’spowersystem,withaparticularfocusonhowpowermarketscanunlockflexibility.

Chapter1offersacomprehensiveassessmentofflexibilityinChina,usingtheIEA’sRegionalPowerSystemmodeltoquantifyhowsupply-anddemand-sideresourcescanmeetflexibilityneedsby2030,assumingappropriatemarketmechanismsareinplace.Thechapterexplorespolicybarriersthatcurrentlylimitflexibility.

Chapter2examinespowermarketreforms,highlightingthosemosteffectiveatunlockingflexibility.Modelscenarioscontrastanoptimisticoutlookwithalternativeswhereslowreformshinderprogress.Thechapteremphasisesthesignificanceofrapidmarketdevelopmentsinachievingdualcarbongoalsandmeetingthecorrespondingflexibilityneeds.

Buildingonthesefindings,Chapter3presentsapolicytoolkitforthepertinentsectionsofthe15thFive-YearPlan,outliningstepsforconductingflexibilityassessments,identifyingkeypoliciesandmonitoringthesystem’sevolvingflexibilityneeds.Thechapteralsoincludesrecommendationsforapplyingthetoolkitattheprovincialorregionallevel,accountingforthediversityofChina'sprovincesandregions.

TheAnnexprovidesfurtherdetailsonthemodellingmethodology.

MeetingPowerSystemFlexibilityNeedsinChinaby2030Chapter1.PowersystemflexibilityinChina

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Chapter1.PowersystemflexibilityinChina

Thegrowingneedforflexibility

China’spowersystemisundergoingarapidtransformation,drivenbythelarge-scaledeploymentofvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)onthesupplysideandtheelectrificationofenduseslikeindustry,spaceheatingandroadtransportonthedemandside.Theincreasedvariabilityinsupplyanddemandarisingfromtheseassetsmakesflexibilityacornerstoneofpowersystemsecurityandtheenergytransition.

DespitetherapidevolutionofChina'spowersystemandconcernsoverelectricitysecurity,thereiscurrentlynoofficialquantificationorregularassessmentofsystemflexibilityneedsacrossitsprovincesandregions.Thisgapleavesuncertaintyregardingtheresourcesrequiredtomeetcurrentandfuturesystemneeds,possiblyleadingtoover-investmentorpooruseofavailableassets.

ThischapterexaminestheflexibilityneedsofChina’spowersystem,thecurrentstateofflexibilityresourcesandthebarriers–particularlymarketandregulatory–thathindertheirexpansion.

Evolvingapproaches