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AutomotiveOutlook2040
Paceyourself
forthemarathonahead
MANAGEMENTSUMMARY
Contents
AutomotiveOutlook2040
Paceyourselfforthemarathonahead
Theautomotiveindustryisinthemidstofalengthyperiodofdisruption,
astormthatisunlikelytosubsideanytimesoon.Overthenextdecadeandahalf,newtechnologyandgeopoliticaleventswillcontinuetoradically
transformmarketsanddisruptsupplychains.Atthesametime,thecenterofgravityoftheindustrywillshift–butinwhichdirectionremainstobeseen.
WillAsiabecallingtheshotsin2040,orwillWesternplayersmanagetostageaneffectivecomeback?
Theuncertaintyoverwhatliesaheadmakesitvitalforthoseintheindustrytounderstandthetrendsdrivingthisprolongedprocessoftransformationoverthenextdecadeandahalf.Ourresearchshowsthatthepreviouslyidentifiedshift
towardsinnovative,sharedmobilitysolutionsthatwethoughtwouldbeaglobalphenomenonwillinfactlargelybelimitedtometropolitanareas,whichaccountforlessthantenpercentofthedistancetraveledbyprivatevehiclesoverall.
What,then,doestheroadaheadholdfortheautomotiveworld?
Weidentifyfourdirectionsofchangethatstandoutfromthemanytrends
inthemarket–fourmegatrendsthatwebelievewillshapethetransformation
oftheindustrythrough2040.TheirinitialsformtheacronymPACE:TheautomotiveworldisbecomingmorePolarized,withregionalnuancesandaddedcomplexitymakingglobalizationmorechallenging,forcingplayerstomakechoices.
Automationisgrowing,withtheriseofautonomousvehiclesanduseofAIall
alongthevaluechain.VehiclesareincreasinglyConnectedanddigitalized.AndElectrificationcontinuesapace–indeed,ourbase-casescenarioassumesa
battery-electricvehicleshareof71percentin2040,whileourdownsidecaseassumesashareof64percent,subjecttoregionalvariation.
Intermsofmarketdynamics,salesvolumesandrevenuepoolsareshiftingtoChinaandtheGlobalSouth,whileWesternmarketshavealreadyreached
"peakauto"intermsofnewvehiclesales.Thefollowingpagesincludedetailedforecastsforfuturerevenuepoolsineachregion,plusspecificrecommendationsforautomotivemanufacturersandsuppliers.
Theroadaheadwillbealongone,withunexpectedtwistsandturnsalongtheway.Thisisamarathon,notasprint–andplayersmustpacethemselvesaccordingly.
2|RolandBerger
P4
P6
P10
P26
P34
CoverphotoArturDebat/GettyImages
P45
PACE2040–Ourcorebeliefs
1/Theautomotiveworldischanging,butprobablynothowyouwereexpecting
2/Fourdevelopmentsreshapingtheautoindustry
2.1/Polarized–Fromglobalizationtoregionalization2.2/Automated–Fromhumantoartificialintelligence2.3/Connected–Fromhorsepowertoterabytes
2.4/Electrified–FromICEstoEVs
3/Theevolutionofproductsandregions
3.1/Movetowardslocal-for-localproducts
3.2/ChinaandtheGlobalSouthontherise,butWesternmarketsholdfirm
4/Navigatingthetransformation
4.1/OEMs–ChinesedominanceorrevitalizationoftheWest?
4.2/Suppliers–Newrevenuepoolsandashiftingbalanceofpower
5/Themarathonahead
AutomotiveOutlook2040|3
PACE2040–
Ourcorebeliefs
FourPACEmegatrendsaredrivingthetransformation
Theautomotiveindustryin2040willbepolarized,automated,connectedandelectrified
TheworldisbecomingmorePolarized
Autoplayersneedaregionallydifferentiatedapproachandpotentiallyanewglobalmarketfocus
AutomationandAIaretransformingtheindustry
Automationiscreatingnewprofitpools,whileAItechnologyiskeytoimprovingperformance
In2040,theautomotiveindustrywillbemoreConnected
Playersshouldpreparethemselvesforaparadigmshiftinthestructureoftheindustry
Electrificationisgrowingfasteverywhere
AlthoughrecentmarketdevelopmentshavecalledintoquestioncurrentBEVadoptionforecasts,theoveralldirectionofchangecannotnowbereversed
Privatevehicleswillremainpartoftheequation
Sharedmobilityconceptsarereshapingcustomerbehavior,butonlyinlargeurbanareas
Tomorrow'svehiclesareelectrified,automatedandconnected
Butmajorregionaldisparitiesataproductlevelwillpersistthrough2040
Marketdynamicsvaryfromregiontoregion
Westernmarketsarereachingpeakauto,butgrowthwillcontinueinChinaandtheGlobalSouth
ThebalanceofpowerisshiftingtowardsChina
Thequestionis,canWesternautomotivemanufacturersrevitalize?
Suppliersfacestructuralchange
Strategicprioritieswilldependonsuppliers'domain,regionalfocusandgrowthexpectations
AutomotiveOutlook2040|5
Theautomotiveworldischanging,but
probablynothowyouwereexpecting
Te,riieab
ofpowerintheindustry.Newentrantsareaggressivelyseizingmarketsharefromestablishedplayers,vehicletechnologyisevolvingatanunprecedentedpaceandthemacroeconomicandgeopoliticallandscapeisgainingpreviouslyunseenlayersofcomplexity.Nowisacrucialtimefortheautomotiveindustrytorevisititsstrategicpriorities.Howwilltheindustryevolveoverthenext15
years?Whatforceswilldrivethetransformation?Andhowshouldcarmanufacturersandsuppliersprepareforthemarathonahead?
Traditionally,automotiveplayersbasetheirlong-termstrategiesonthechangestheyexpecttoseeinmobilitybehavior–changessuchasanoveralldecreaseintheuseofprivatevehiclesorthetransformationoftoday'sautomotiveplayersintomobilityserviceprovidersorcommoditysuppliersforothermobilityplayers.Indeed,
theassumptionthatinnovative,sharedmobilitysolutionswouldreplacedemandforprivatevehicle-basedmobilitylaybehindmanyviewsonthelong-termoutlookfortheindustry,particularlythosedevelopedinthemid-2010s.
Ouranalysisoftheglobalautomotiveindustryfindsthattheexpecteddisruptioninmobilityhasoccurredatmuchslowerpacethananticipated.Currentchangesinmobilitypatternsaremainlyrestrictedtolargeurbanareas,whichaccountforlessthantenpercentofthedistancetraveledbyprivatevehiclesoverall.Evenintheselargeurbanareas,thehypearoundnewmobilityofferingshasnotdeliveredonitspromisesandhasprovenoveroptimisticwithregardstothespeedofchange.Itisnowclearthatmajordisruptionofthesortthatwaswidelypredictedisnotlikelyintheperiodto2040:Itwillhappen,butnotatthepaceexpected.Weneedamoredifferentiatedapproachtoshiftsinmobilitybehavior–onethatdistinguishesbehaviorinurbanareasfromthatinruralorsuburbanareas.A
AImportanceofprivatevehiclesinurbanvs.rural/suburbanareas,2023
Shareoftotalmileagedrivenbyprivatevehiclesbytypeofroad[%]
10%
Metropolitanareas
relevantforurbanmobilityconcepts
Despiteonlyaccountingforasmallshareoftotalmobilityneed, changingmobilitybehaviorin metropolitanareasisthefocusofmostdisruptiveforecasts
90%
Highways,countryroadsandsmallercitiesnotrelevantforurbanmobilityconcepts
Note:DatabasedonaverageacrossGermany,USAandChina
Source:RolandBerger
AutomotiveOutlook2040|7
Demandformobility,asreflectedinthetotalnumberofmilestraveled,isforecasttocontinuegrowinginmostregionsoftheworldatarateoftwotothreepercentayearintheperiodto2040.Themaindriversofthisincreaseareeconomicanddemographicdevelopment.Factorsrelatingtochangesintechnologyorsociety,suchasmoreremoteworkormoreonlineshopping,onlyhaveaminorimpactonoveralldemandformobility.
Inlargeurbanareas,newmodesoftransportationsuchasurbanairmobilityandautonomousdriving,plustheincreasingpenetrationofmicromobility(bicycles,e-bikes,electricscooters)andsharedmobilityservices,willhaveanegativeimpactonvehicleusageoverthecomingdecadeandahalf.However,theoverallimpactonvehiclesaleswillbeminor.Inthecaseofnewmodesoftransportation,thisisduetothesmallscaleofthesenewofferingsandthelimitedareasinwhichtheyoperate.Micromobilitywillgrowintermsofthenumberoftripsmade,yetourresearchshowsthatthistypeofmobilitycomplementstripsinprivatevehiclesratherthanreplacingthem.Regulation,suchascongestionchargesandno-carzones,willlikelyhaveastrongerimpactonvehicleusage,butherethesituationdifferswidelyfromcitytocityandregiontoregion.TheUnitedStates,forexample,currentlyhasno
citieswithmajorrestrictionsonvehicles,whereasseveralEuropeancitieshavecompletelybannedprivatecarsfromenteringdowntownareas.
Inthecomingdecadeandahalf,wedonotexpecttoseeanymajorchangeinthefactthatsuburban,ruralandlong-distancetravelaccountforthevastmajorityofmilestraveledbycar.InGermany,forexample,travelinlargeurbanareasisaround35percentbyprivatevehicleand20percentbypublictransit,whileinruralareasthesplitis70percentprivatevehiclestojustfivepercentpublictransit.WeexpectthesituationinGermanyandelsewheretoremainlargelyconstantintheperiodto2040,withonlyaslightdeclineinprivatevehicleuseinlargeurbanareas.Globally,micromobilityisnotrelevantinruralareas,norarerestrictionssuchascongestioncharges,andconsumerswillcontinuetoshowastrongpreferenceforprivatevehicle-basedmobility.Automotiveplayerswouldthereforebewrongtobuildtheirlong-termstrategiesontheexpectationofasuddenshiftinoverallmobilitybehavior.Whileautomotiveplayersmust,ofcourse,keepaneyeonongoingdevelopmentsinmobilitybehavior,themorefundamental,prolongedchangesintheautomotiveindustrythrough2040willoccurelsewhere–aswediscussinthefollowingchapter.B
Fourmegatrendswillshape
thetransformationof
theindustrythrough2040.
Theirinitialsformthe
acronymPACE.
8|RolandBerger
Keydriversinfluencingprivatevehicleusageacrossurban,suburbanandruralareas
Impactonprivatevehicleusage
Micromobility
Willcontinuetogrowquickly,drivenbypoliticalsupportandstrongcustomerdemand.Will
complement,notreplace,privatecars.Majorregionaldifferenceswillpersist
LowMediumHigh
Carsharing
Furthergrowthexpectedinurbanareas,butprofitabilitychallengelimitsscalability.Evidencesuggestsimpactonmotorizationratesislimited
Urbanairmobility
Gradualrolloutinselectedlargeurbanareas,butinsufficientscaleandgeographical
coveragetohaveamajorimpactonglobalvehiclesales
Autonomouson-demandmobility
Speedofadoptionsubjecttogreatuncertainty.Availabilitylikelytobelimitedtothelargest
urbanareas.Oftenreplacesothersharedmodes,e.g.conventionaltaxisandbuses
Downtownentryrestrictions
Willpotentiallyhaveastrongimpactonvehicleusageinurbanareas,butwillonlyapplyinspecificcitiesandvarybyglobalregion
Infrastructurechanges
Couldhaveamajorimpactonvehicleusageinurbanareas,butrolloutrequiresstrong,
sustainedpoliticalwill,whichisonlyfoundinalimitednumberofcities
Largeurbanareas
Source:RolandBerger
BManyfactorsaffectprivatevehicleusage
●Suburban/ruralareas
AutomotiveOutlook2040|9
Fourdevelopmentsreshapingtheautoindustry
f,aswehaveseen,mobilitybehaviorwillnotbethe
Icauseofmajordisruptionintheindustry,whatisitthatwilltriggerthetransformationandshiftinbalanceofpowerintheperiodto2040?Whichdevelopmentswillshapetheautoindustryoverthenextdecadeandhalf?Andwhereshouldautomotivecompaniesbefocusingtheirresourcesinthisongoingmarathon?
Toanswerthesequestions,wecarriedoutanin-depthanalysisofcurrenttrendsintheglobalautomotiveindustryandtheirlikelydevelopmentthrough2040.Wedrawonthisanalysis,inadditiontoinsightsfromourglobalteamofexpertsandextensivediscussionswithindustryprofessionalsandexecutives,inthediscussionbelow.Ourchieffindingisthatfourkeydevelopmentsstandoutasmegatrendsshapingtheindustrythrough2040:ThefuturewillbePACE–Polarized,Automated,ConnectedandElectrified.C
2.1/Polarized–Fromglobalizationtoregionalization
Differentregionsaresettodevelopindifferentdirectionsandatdifferentspeedsinthemarathonahead.Arangeoffactorsisdrivingthisvariety:geopoliticaldevelopments,differencesinregulation,technologicaldifferences,customerpreferencesandmacroeconomicshifts.Forexample,ChinaisonatrajectoryfrombeingthegrowthengineforEuropeanOEMstobeingalargelyfullyelectricvehiclemarketdominatedbydomesticplayers,whilemostofNorthAmericawillremainaninternalcombustionengine(ICE)marketformanyyearstocome.Asdifferentregionsdivergeanddevelopattheirownpaceintheperiodto2040,theindustrywillbecomemorepolarized.Thisstandsinradicalcontrasttothewidertrendtowardsglobalizationseeninpreviousdecades.
CDrivingforces
Fourdevelopmentsshapingtheautoindustrythrough2040
P
Polarized
Fromglobalizationtoregionalization
Towardsincreasing
regionalization
ofmarketsbetween
WestandEast
A
Automated
Fromhuman
toartificialintelligence
Increasing
automationindriving
andalongthe
valuechain
C
Connected
Fromhorsepowertoterabytes
Dataandsoftware
becomekeyascars
turnintocomputers
onwheels
E
Electrified
FromICEtoEVs
AdoptionofEVsis
followingdifferent
trajectoriesacross
markets
Source:RolandBerger
AutomotiveOutlook2040|11
Polarizationwillnotonlyimpactvaluechainsbutalsolargelydeterminewherefuturesalesmarketsandrevenuepoolsarelocated.Automotiveplayersthereforeneedtofollowaregionallydifferentiatedapproach,potentiallyredefiningtheirglobalmarketfocus.Below,weidentifythreekeydevelopmentsthatautomotiveplayerswillneedtoreacttoinordertoremaincompetitive.
NORTHAMERICA,EUROPEANDCHINAWILLREMAINTHECOREAUTOMOTIVEMARKETS,DESPITESTRONGGROWTHINTHEGLOBALSOUTH
EconomicgrowthintheUnitedStatesandCanada,whilestrongerthaninmostotherWesternmarkets,isexpectedtobearound1.8percentayearintheperiod2024to2030,fallingto1.5percentayearfrom2031to2040.InEurope,1economicgrowthwillbejust1.1percentbetween2030and2040,wellbelowtheglobalaverageof2.1percent.Similarly,Chinaisnotexpectedtoreachitsformereconomicgrowthrates,withratesdownto3.8percentbetween2024and2030and2.9percentinthedecadeafterthat.ThiscontrastswithstrongGDPgrowthinmarketsintheGlobalSouth,2at3.9percentintheperiod2024to2030and3.1percentfrom2031to2040.Somelargeemergingmarkets,includingIndia,willevenreachgrowthratesexceeding5percentbetween2024and2040.Despitethis,theGlobalSouthwillaccountforjust34percentorsoofglobalGDPgrowth,andpurchasingpowerwillremainsignificantlylowerthannotonlyintheWestbutalsoinChina.
Populations,especiallyworking-agepopulations,willgrowby25percentintheGlobalSouthoverthenextdecadeandahalf,whileshrinkinginEurope(byninepercent)andChina(bytenpercent).However,motorizationratesandinfrastructurelevelsintheGlobalSouthwillremainlowerthanindevelopedmarketsandChina.Thecurrenthighshareofentry-levelandvolumesegmentsintheGlobalSouthwillalsopersist,reflectinglowerincomelevelsintheseregions.Allinall,theGlobalSouthwillsee
above-averagemarketgrowth,butmostlyforhighvalue-for-moneyvehicles.D
REGULATORYDRIVEFORSUSTAINABILITYWILLPERSIST,BUTWITHREGIONALDIFFERENCES
Regulatorshavepushedforareductioningreenhousegases,evenifnetzerotargetsarenotlikelytobereachedassoonasplanned.Behindtheseeffortsisstrongpopularsupportandadesireonthepartofgovernmentstoachievecompetitiveadvantagefortheirindustries.Industryhasmadeclearcommitments;however,thestrengthofeffortswillcontinuetovaryfromregiontoregion.Atthesametime,politicalpartiesinsomecountriesarenowquestioningthefeasibilityoftargetssuchastheEUmandatefor100percentofnewvehiclesalestobezero-emissionby2035,orarguingthatthereshouldbeexemptionsfore-fuels.
DECISION-MAKERSCANNOLONGERRELYONASTABLEGEOPOLITICALENVIRONMENT
Wearewitnessinganincreaseinthelevelofglobalpoliticalinstability,withthehighestnumberofviolentconflictscurrentlytakingplacesincetheendoftheSecondWorldWarandgrowingrivalrybetweentheUnitedStatesandChina.In2018wesawthestartofaninternationaltradewarandasurgeinprotectionistmeasuresaroundtheglobe:In2024alone,morethan3,300protectionistmeasuresadverselyimpactedtheautomotiveindustry,accordingtodatafromtheUniversityofUppsala.Thisdevelopmentwillaffecttheenvironmentinwhichautomotiveplayersactandthelong-termtrajectoryofthe
1TheEU-27,UnitedKingdom,Albania,Andorra,Belarus,
Georgia,Iceland,Kosovo,Moldova,Monaco,Montenegro,NorthMacedonia,Norway,SanMarino,Serbia,SwitzerlandandUkraine.
2IncludingdevelopingandemergingmarketsinAsia,AfricaandLatinAmerica,butexcludingChina.
DGlobalgrowthdynamicsareshifting
Macroeconomicanddemographicdevelopmentbyregion,2024-40[%growthp.a.]
Populationgrowth,2024-40[%p.a.]
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
GlobalSouth
Global
average
USA/
Canada
China
Decliningpopulation
Europe
Japan/Korea
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%
GDPgrowth,2024-40[%p.a.]
GDPpercapita,2040
Source:OxfordEconomics,RolandBerger
industry.Forexample,anyriseinprotectionistmeasuressuchastariffsorexportbanswillimpactthesupplyofcriticalrawmaterialsandcomponents,aswellasbidirectionalaccesstomarkets.
Thenextdecadeandahalfmaybringlocal-for-localproductionregulationsandacontinuationofgovernmentsubsidies,bothofwhichwouldhavestrongimplicationsforthesetupofglobalvaluechains.Ultimately,weexpecttoseeashiftawayfromglobalizationdominatedbyasingleregionandtowardstheemergenceofdifferent
ecosystems,onedominatedbytheUnitedStatesandtheotherbyChina.Thiswilllimitaccesstomarketsanddrasticallyincreasethecomplexityandcostofservingmarketsaroundtheglobe,aswellasdrivinguppricesforconsumers.Toremaincompetitiveamongsuchuncertainty,decision-makersintheautomotiveindustryneedtokeepgeopoliticalconsiderationsatthetopoftheiragenda,strengtheningtheirlocal-for-localstrategiesandcarryingoutcontinuousriskandresiliencechecksontheirsupplychains.E
12|RolandBergerAutomotiveOutlook2040|13
EMajortradeinterventionsaffectingautomotiveplayers
EVtariffs
Retaliation
measuresby
China
Gallium/germaniumexportban
Semiconductor
technology
USInflationReductionAct
embargo
2018
2022
2023
8
2024
Semiconductorexportban
StartofUS-Chinatradewar
Graphiteexportban
Rareearthprocessingtechnology
EVtariffs
Europe
USA
China
Various
Semiconductor
E-mobilityTradeinterventionintroducedby…
Source:RolandBerger
2.2/Automated–Fromhumantoartificialintelligence
Automateddrivingstillfacesmultiplechallengesandadoptionistakingmuchlongerthanexpected.Whileassisteddriving(Level2+)ismakingprogress,carmanufacturersarefarbehindinitialforecastsforhighlyautomateddrivingsystems(Levels3and4).Intermsoftechnology,trainingforuncommon,messysituationssuchasreactingtoearlyrespondersorunusualtrafficsituationsremainschallenging.Majorregionaldifferencesinregulationcurrentlylimitscalabilityandaddcomplexity,particularlyfortherolloutofon-demandautonomousvehicles(AVs)suchasrobotaxis–althoughthefirstdriverlesstaxishaveappearedinsomecitiesandarebeing
rolledouttoothersinChinaandtheUnitedStates,thetwocountriesthatleadthewayhere.IncreasedcustomeracceptancewillbecrucialforthewidespreadadoptionofAVs,yetthistrustisdifficulttobuild.Society'swillingnesstoforgiveanAVformakingamistakeisstillsignificantlylowerthanforahumandriver.
Moreover,thequestionofeconomicviabilityisstillnotcompletelyresolved.Althoughsomeprovidershaveannouncedthatprofitabilityforon-demandAVservicesisachievableinspecificcitiesintheshortterm,moregenerallysuchserviceswillremainchallengingduetothehighlevelofutilizationandscalerequired.ForprivateAVs,customers'willingnesstopaypresentsafurtherbarriertoadoption,alsointhepremiumsegment.However,thesechallengesarenotinsurmountable,especiallyif
policymakersimproveconditionsfortestingandmarketintroduction.Atthesametime,AVcompanieswillneedtocontinuouslyimprovecostefficiency.F
Althoughweexpecttoseemultiplereal-lifeapplicationsofAVsontheroadsin2040,thejourneytothatpointwillbegradualanddifferwidelyfordifferentusecasesandregions.Weidentifysixmajor"progressmarkers"alongthepathtoautomateddriving:
#1:On-demandAVsareavailable
On-demandAVssuchasrobotaxis,robo-shuttlesandrobo-buses,alreadyoperatinginsomecitiesintheUnitedStatesandChina,willgrowinvolumefromtoday'ssmallfleets.Bytheearly2030sthesevehicleswillhavereachedfleetsizescomparabletothoseofconventionaltaxisinsomelargeurbanareas.By2040weexpectthatscaledfleetsofon-demandAVswillformanintegralpartofmobilityinthelargesturbanareasglobally.Insomeregions,especiallywithinEurope,robo-buseswillalsoincreasinglyserveruralareas.
#2:On-demandAVsoperateprofitably
Manyplayerswillachieveprofitabilityby2040fortheiron-demandautonomousmobilityservices.However,intheinterveningyears,weexpecttoseefiercebattlesformarketshareandoperationalchallenges,thelatterseverelyaffectingprofitability.Theresultingmarketconsolidationmayultimatelyleadtohigherpricelevelsandthusmoresustainablemarginlevels.
#3:CustomerscanbuyAVsforprivateuse
WeexpecttoseesignificantvolumesofAVsontheroadin2040,buttheywillstilllargelybelimitedtothepremiumsegment.Thetrickledowntothevolumesegmentwillbegradual,duetocontinuinghighincrementalcosts.
#4:Packagesaredeliveredbyautonomoustrucks
CommercialAVswillachievesubstantialmarketshareinlong-haulapplicationsby2040,whilepenetrationforlast-
FChallengesfortheadoptionofautonomousdriving
Technologicalprogress
Trainingforuncommonsituationssuchasreactingtoearlyrespondersorunusualtrafficconditionstakestime("taileffect")
Customeracceptance
Buildingtrustamongconsumersischallenging
Capitalsupply
Significantinvestmentisneededfordevelopingandtestingautonomousvehicles
Economicviability
Economicviabilityofautonomouson-
demandservicesischallengingduetohighlevelofutilizationandscalerequired
Regulatorycomplexity
Strongregionaldifferencesinlegislationlimitscalabilityandaddcomplexity
Wereferto"autonomousdriving"whenreferringtoL4drivingwithoutadriverrequired,whileusingthebroaderterm
"automateddriving"whenreferringtolowerADASlevels|Theterm"autonomouson-demandservices"referstorobotaxis,robo-
shuttlesandrobo-buses.
Source:RolandBerger
10
9
6
5
4
2
1
3
7
14|RolandBergerAutomotiveOutlook2040|15
GThetrajectorytoautomateddrivingisincremental
Progressinautomateddriving,2025-40
203020352040
1
2
3
4
5
6
On-demandautonomousvehiclesare
available
On-demandautonomousservice
providersoperate
profitably
Customers
canbuy
autonomousvehiclesfor
privateusage
Packagesaredeliveredby
autonomoustrucks
Customers
fullytrust
thesafetyofautonomousvehicles
Autonomous
drivingis
legalonpublicroads
SmallfleetsinselectedcitiesinUS/China
Despiteprogress,most
players'operationsarestillnotprofitable
Norelevantmarketshare(pilotsonly)
Norelevantmarketshare(pilotsonly)
Lowtrust,mostpeople
thinkAVsarelesssafethanhumandrivers
Legalframeworklimitedtopredefinedtestroads/areas
Fleetsreachcomparablesizetotaxiswithhuman
driversinselectedcitiesinUS/China
Fiercefightformarketshareandoperationalchallengesaffect
profitability
Firstofferingsinpremiumsegment,mainlyrestrictedtoL4highwaypilots
L4trucksrunonpredefinedcorridorsorexit-2-exit
Moderatetrust,most
peoplethinkAVsarejustassafeashumandrivers
Legalframeworkinplaceinsomeregionsandusecases
Scaledfleetsarean
integralpartofmobilityinlargesturbanareasglobally
Consolidationforces
unprofitableplayersoutofthemarket,butmargins
remaintight
Slowbutgrowing
penetrationinvolumesegment,too
Increasingpenetrationinlonghaul,butstillasmallshareoflast-miledelivery
Highleveloftrust,most
peoplethinkAVsaresaferthanhumandrivers
Clearlegalframework
inplaceforallusecases,regionalvariationremains
Noprogress
Strongprogress
Source:RolandBerger
miledeliverywillremainlower.Weexpecttoseet
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