高盛-中国2025年展望：逆风前行 （摘要）-20241115

SachsResearch中国2025年展望中国2025年展望■2024年，中国经济面临很多不利因素，■在我们的2025年基线情景中，我们假设预计中国决策层将在2025年大幅降息(40个基点)并明显提高广义财政赤字率场。我们预计明年CPI和PPI通胀分别为0.8%和0%。通胀低迷的原因有二：第高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司关税的加征幅度远超20%(即：给增长带来下行风险)、中国出口韧性远强于我们预测(给增长带来上行风险)、以及中国决策层格外注重汇率稳定(给我们的我们预计2025-2035年中国实际GDP增速均值为3.5%,而2000-2019年为9.0%。/research/hedge.h本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!Put”lastNovember,ChinesepolicymaketheChineseeconomyth本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!0.1PotentialImpactof20%USTaiffonChin21TherecentpolicyturntheeconomyandpursueatecWesiftedthroughPresidentXiJinping'sspeechesfrequencyinthesespeeches.“Technology(科技)”hasincreasedfromthe78thfrequentlymentionedwordin2019tothe30in2024,and“high-quality(高质量)”hasbatteryandsolar/wineconomicgrowth.WeexpectrealGDinflationgraduallynorma002019550资料来源：政府网站，高盛全球投资研究部资料来源：国家统计局，高盛全球投资研究部Wherearewedifferent?Althoughourwithconsensusexpectations,our%%baselineforecastscChinabythefull60pphethrChina’shouseholdconsumptionslcomparedto47%inQ2and59%pre-Covidin2019(图表6).RetailTheweaknessindomesticdema2024年11月15日本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!theflipside,thepropertysectorisnotoutofthewoodsyetLocalgovernmentfundingconditionsfacedincreasedchalspending.Governmentconsumption-whichaccountsexpecttotalconsumptionincludingb2024,slightlybelowthepre-Covidtrend(图表7).Wecontinuetoexpectaverygradual8Q1|Q2|Q3Q4Q1|02资料来源：国家统计局资料来源：国家统计局，高盛全球投资研究部employmentsub-indexes(图表8).Theempofficialdatashowstablewagegrowth,ourwagetracker,whichincorporatesalternative22019202020212022资料来源：国家统计局，高盛全球投资研究部Thewagedataunderursurveystartedin2014Q2,soweusethewagegrowthfrom2003Q2to2013Q4.部andcompletionsalmosthalvedasofthelatestdata(图表10).Bycomparison,totalflopreviousyears.Secondaryho“stemthepropertymarketfromfrestrictionsonnewprojects,pledgingtolausignificantlyinOctobervs.SGivenmanystructuralourviewthatthereappearappearsinevitable,instill-depressedfundingconditionsforpropertydevelopers.We图表12:WeexpectFAIgrowthtorisemodestly图表13:FAIgrowthhasbeenmostlydrivenbySOE2024年11月15日8本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!competitivenessandpotentdeclinemodestlyto5.1%ofGDPspending.OurAsiaTransportresearchteamforecastsChina'sinter2024to0.8%ofGDPin2025whichshouldweighontheCNY(图表17).本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!piceandvolumecontibutiontpiceandvolumecontibutiont006543210China'scurrentaccount(share532052024年11月15日10本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!obstacleshinderingtAdditionaldemand-sideandheadlineCPlinflationtorisemoderatelyto0.8%from0.4%expectedthisyear(图表Chinayear-over-yearCPlChinayear-over-yearCPlrecapitalization,consumption,andthepropertysecto本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!中国2025年展望agrowthdrivernextyearfrombeingadragthisyear(图表22).62.51.02.30.00.31.70.00.21.00.72024年11月15日13本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!guidanceonfurtherpolicyeasingindicatedpolicymakerscutsinQ2andQ42026(图表23).Thisshouldhel“credit-intensive”)andthePBOC'srTightenedregulationon“idlemoneycirculation”,suchascoimpulsein2025vs.2024(图表24).3255webelieveagrowthtargetof2025ifpolicymakerswouldlikebalanced,despiteheighteneduncertairesilient-than-expectedChineseexports,whhaveimplicationsforgrowthandmarkets(图表26).图表25:China’s图表26:UpcomingkeymacrocatalystsforChinamarketsUSPresident-electtoanEarlytomid-Dec2024PolitbuEnd-Dec2024NPCstandingco20Jan2025Jan-Feb20252025proviEarly-to-midMar202LateApr2025PolitburomeetingoneconomEnd-Jul2025PolitburomeetingonecoComparingtheongoingstimongoingstimuluspackagewillbelargerthadifferenceistheincreasedfocusonbaselinescenariofor2025consumerspendinghigherUStariffsnextyear,thiswouldacthe2025growthpatternthatweexpect.Wefindthatwholesbenefitmorefrom图表27:WeexpectgoodsconsumptionandexportstoplaylargerrolesinChina's 0.81.61.6-0.60.00.10.90.835%Note:greenrepresentshighersharesrelativetotypicalcycleandr本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!growthcontinuedtorecoveroneasingfinancial本报告来源于“慧博投研”,请勿外传!图表28:图表28:Goodsconsumptiondeclinedyear-to-datewhile%of2018leveksContibutiontorealGDPgrowth20-----SpendingoutsideHongKong0809101112131415161718192021222324