Kearney：首份消费者压力指数 The inaugural Consumer StressIndex by the Kearney Consumer Institute

Theinaugural

ConsumerStress

IndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute

Howacombinationofmacroeconomicdataandconsumerinputcanleadtoabetterunderstandingofconsumerstress

PhotobyGemaAlcantaraGonzalez

Kearney,Madrid

KEARNEY

Sectionone:

Theconsumersentimentconundrum

Thetwomostdifficultthingstofullycomprehendarethehumanheartandthehumanmind.It’shard

enoughtounderstandyourownmotivations,orthemotivationsofthoseclosesttoyou,letalonepeopleyouhavenever,andlikelywillnever,meet.Butthatdoesn’tstopanarmyofeconomists,marketers,andbusinessleadersfromcomfortablyhandingdown

neatandcleanpronouncementsandpredictionstoexplain,categorize,andanticipateconsumer

behavior—pronouncementsandpredictionsthatare,atbest,oversimplificationsofhighlycomplexand

nuancedmentalprocesses.

So,isitpossibletobalancethetraditional“objective”

dataanddemography-drivenprofilingofthe

consumerandamore“subjective”(butperhapsmoreaccurate)pictureofconsumers—asindividualsandingroups?Theanswerisyes,butitrequiresanew

mindsetthatbringstogetherobjectivedatapoints

withdirectconsumerinputinadynamic,evolving

modelcapableofmakingnewconnectionsbetweentheforcesthatdriveconsumerbehavior.That’swhytheKearneyConsumerInstitute(KCI)hasdevelopedtheKearneyConsumerStressIndexthat“learns”bybalancingtheartandscienceofconsumeranalysis.

TheIndexcreatesanewlensforunderstanding

consumersentimentthatdemonstratesthatwhenitcomestogainingclearinsightsintoconsumer

decision-making,sometimes“thescience”ismore

subjectivethanwepretenditis,and“theart”moreobjectivethanwethink.TheKearneyConsumer

StressIndex(Index)isthatmodel—onethatstartsbyengagingwithconsumersinnewandexcitingways.Thinkofitasawayofexpressingsterilequantitativevaluesinrobustqualitativeformsthatyielddeeper,moreaccurate,andmoreusefulinsightsintoreal

consumerbehavior.

Fromaneconomicviewof

consumerstoconsumers’viewoftheeconomy

Inrecentyears(butalsosincethedawnoftime),it’sbeenarguedthatconsumersareunpredictable.Theyactunreliablyandirrationally.Theyoftentellusonethingandthendoanother.Giventheirimpactontheglobaleconomy,itbegsaneedtobetterunderstandtheirsentimentandassociatedbehaviors.

Developingandrefiningthisnewmodelwasa

journey,onethatbeganwiththinkingabout

consumerbehaviorduringarecessionthatnever

happened,butforawhileseemedliketheonlythinganyonecouldtalkabout.AslateasQ32023,industryexecutiveswerestilltryingtofigureoutwhyreality

wasn’tliningupwiththepredictionstheyrelyontomakecriticaldecisions.Thesedays,theterms

“unpredictable”or“mixeddata”seemtobebusinessspeakfor“wecan’texplainwhysomethingisorisn’thappening.”

Labelingconsumersas“unpredictable”hasbecomethedefaultexplanation.TheKCIknowstheproblemisn’ttheconsumer—it’sthewaymostcompaniesand

analystsexamineandevaluatetheconsumertoday,oftenbasedonobjectivedatathatmissesthe

emotionsandfullmentalloadofconsumers.

Aconsumer’sperceptionis,quiteliterally,theirreality,

andrecognizingthisisthebasisofanewunderstandingofconsumers.

The“recessionthatneverwas”isjustoneexampleofhowtraditionaleconomicmodelsoftenfailto

understandandexplainconsumerbehavior.Creating

anewmodelnecessitatedlookingatconsumersaspeople,withbothsharedanduniquequalities,

and—mostimportantly—whohaveagency.

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute1

Sectiontwo:

Theevolutionofthesolution

Talkingabouthumansoughttostartwithtalkingtothem

TheKCIfoundthatit’snotthatwehavefaulty

macroeconomicdataornotenoughsurveys,but

ratheraneedtorefineourapproachincriticalways.

Theresult?AnewlensknownastheKearney

ConsumerStressIndex.Historicalanalysestakean

economicviewofconsumersratherthanhow

consumersviewtheeconomy.TheIndexestablishesafreshwaytolookatconsumersentimentthroughacarefullycuratedblendofmacroeconomicdataandconsumerinputfocusedonwhattheycandoand

howtheyfeel.

Thebaseline2024Indexpolled24,000respondentsin12countriestoassesstheirstresslevelsacrossfive“pillars”thatdriveconsumerstress:consumerwalletandfinances,healthandeducation,geopoliticsandgovernment,foodandtheenvironment,and

innovationandtechnology(methodologydetailedintheappendix).Ratherthanseeingthesepillarsas

discrete,theIndextrackstheinterrelationships

betweendata,factorsinglobalmacroeconomic

trends,andshowshowconsumermindspaceimpactspurchasingbehavior—the“Sowhat”behindthe“So.”

Everynumbertellsastory

Evenbeforefinalizingthepillarsandsub-categories,ananalysisofthemacroeconomicdatastartedtotellastory.Forexample,theconsumerwalletand

financesmacroindexvaluefortheUShasbarely

movedoverthepastfouryears.Instead,therewasaclassicgiveandtakeinthemodelasshowninfigure1onpage4.Theoriginaldriver,apandemic-fueled

spikeinunemploymentthatdrovestressupwardin2020and2021,wassomewhatoffsetbyincreasedsavingsandhassincebeenreplacedasadriverbyinflationandrisingcostofliving.

Similarly,theUAEexperiencedan11percentage-

pointriseintheirconsumerwalletmacroeconomic

scorein2020thatwasspurredbyalargedropinthepriceofoilrelatedtotheCOVID-19pandemic.

Asapproximately75percentoftheireconomyis

dependentonoilandrelatedindustries,thisdrop

causedasignificantincreaseinunemploymentandadecreaseinrealwages.

What’sbeenmissingaretherealitiesofconsumeroptionality,thought,andemotion—howconsumersthinkaboutmakingtrade-offs,howtheyweigh

alternatives,whattheirkeystressorsare,andevenwhatissuesandconcernsaretopofmind.Most

traditionaltoolsforgetthatconsumers’priorities,

opinions,andmindsetsconstantlyshiftbasedonthelatestnews,personalexperience,andeventheirownlifestage.Itisaremarkablysterilewayoflookingatreal,vibrantpeople.

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute2

Figure1

Deep-divingintotheUSconsumerwalletpillarrevealsa“giveandtake”

Consumerwalletandfinancesmacroeconomicscores

(UnitedStates–changesince2019)

Subcategory20192020202120222023

Overallmacro

consumerwalletpillarscore

100.0

110.7

109.0

112.7

111.9

Incomeand

employmentstability

Housingandcostofliving

Debt,savings,andemergencypreparedness

100.0

100.0

100.0

108.9

109.3

106.2

124.0

116.3

101.7

123.1

128.1

98.4

94.2

97.9

97.5

Lowerstress(lessthanbaselineof100)Higherstress(greaterthanbaselineof100)

Source:KearneyConsumerInstitute

However,evenwhenexpandingcategories,lookingatobjectivedatapointsalonemissedmanyofthe

driversofbothconsumeragencyandangst.

Forexample,whilefoodinflationisstressful,many

consumershavethesavvinessandoptionalityto

offsetthatstressbyflexingtheiroptions.Consumerscantrydifferentbrandsatdifferentpricepoints,optforstorebrandsorgenerics,buyinbulk,patronize

discountphysicalordigitalretailers,reduce

restaurantspending,oradoptnewmenusordietary

patterns.Incaseslikethis,theIndexaimstochallenge

conventionalthinking.Thisisthekindofnuancethatcamethroughwhenconsumersweresurveyed

aroundtheirperceptionofpersonalflexibility.

KCIalsowantedtosurveythemostsensitive,

top-of-mindconsumerissues.Forinstance,geopoliticsandgovernmentwasalmostunanimouslythe

highest-stresspillarineachcountry,drivenbyitshighsensitivityandtop-of-mindedness,andthefactthat

consumersfeltliketheyhadminimalimpactor

controloverit.Whilethismaynothavethemost

linearpathtoconsumershoppingbehavior,it’stakingupmeaningfulmentalspace,ultimatelyimpacting

behavior.Seesidebar:Arefinancestheonlything

consumersarestressedabout?Hardly.onpage5forhighlightsofconsumers’statedbiggeststressors

(hint:financesoftendon’twin).

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute3

Arefinancestheonlything

consumersarestressedabout?

Hardly.

Wideningtheapertureofthelensthroughwhichwelookatconsumersyieldsvitalinsightsandledusto

oneofmany“Aha”moments.Consumerstressors

extendfarbeyondthewalletandexistin,andare

definedby,thebalanceofpersonaleconomicsand

otherfactors.Manyexistingsentimentanalysesfocusonviewsofpersonalfinancesandtheeconomy.

Whenweaskedconsumersaroundtheworldwhich

pillarrepresentedtheirsinglelargestsourceofstress,consumerwalletwasthemostcommonanswer.Butafull70percentofrespondentsdidnotidentifyitas

theirprimarystressor(seefigure).

Figure

Whiletheconsumerwalletwasthemostcommonstressor,

itwasfarfromunanimous

Globalconsumersrankingcategoryasthe“most

stressful”

(Question:Consideryour

dailylifeandstressesand

ranktheoptionsaccordingtowhatyoufindthemosttoleaststressfulpersonally.)

Source:KearneyConsumerInstitute

13%

Innovation

andtechnology

30%

Consumerwalletandfinances

18%

Healthandeducation

19%

Foodandtheenvironment

21%

Geopolitics

andgovernment

凸

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute4

Thetruthbelowthetruth:

paintingamorecompletepictureoftheconsumer

Sowhatelsecanbelearned?Theanswerisalot.

Measuringconsumers’abilitytorespondtocriticalstresstriggers,ortheirflexibilityaroundit,hasa

materialimpactonthetotalstresswithinacategory.

Forinstance,multiplecountriessawthatthetotalIndexscorefortheconsumerwalletwasoften

softenedbyconsumers’optionalityandflexibility(seefigure2).

This“response”measuretellsusthedegree

consumersdoordon’tfeeltheyhaveagency,thatis,howmuchtheybelievetheycanmitigatestress

comingfromaparticularsourcethemselves.Inthis

case,despitechallengingmacroeconomicindicatorsandhighsensitivity,consumershadflexibilityand

optionalitywithinthewalletpillarthatreducedstress.

TheIndexyieldsamultidimensionalportraitofthe

consumeractedoutagainstthebackdropofmacrotrendsandtriggeringevents.Ratherthandelivering“asnapshotintime,”theIndexallowsuserstotrackconsumerpopulationsgloballyovertime.Bydesign,ittrackssensitivitytotheeconomicand

noneconomicfactorsthatdrivestress—directlyandindirectly.Figure3onpage6illustratesthe

relationshipbetweenour2023ConsumerStress

Indexandthemacro,flexibility,andsensitivityscoresforFrance.

Analyzingbypillarshowsmoreaboutthefull

consumerstoryandsentiment.Frenchconsumersreporthighstressaroundpolitics,particularlyin

regardtopoliticalpolarizationandglobalconflict.

It’stopofmindandmostfeellikethereisn’tanythingtheycandoaboutitonaday-to-daybasis.Butthat

doesnotmeanitisn’timpactful—thereispotentialforfar-reachinganddownstreamimpactsoftheroleof

geopoliticsandtheconsumer,fromstrikestobrandboycottstothewarinUkraine’simpactonenergy

prices.It’snosecretthatbothaconsumer’s

communityandtheirmediaintakeimpactnotjustthispillar,butallpillars(furtherdetailedinsidebar:

Influenceandmediaonpage7).

Figure2

Manycountriesfeltthattheyhadflexibilityintheconsumerwallet

Consumerwalletandfinancesscores

(Selectcountries)

Sensitivityscore

103.3

108.3

107.6

104.6

Flexibilityscore

92.0

98.2

94.6

86.6

Macroscore

109.1

102.2

109.4

111.9

2023consumerwalletscore

103.4

102.7

105.2

103.8

Country

Australia

Canada

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Lowerstress(lessthanbaselineof100)Higherstress(greaterthanbaselineof100)

Source:KearneyConsumerInstitute

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute5

Figure3

Frenchconsumers’stressisdrivenbyconcernaroundgeopoliticsandgovernment

ConsumerStressIndexscores

(France)

2023ConsumerStressIndex

Pillar

MacroscoreFlexibilityscoreSensitivityscore

Overallscore

103.8

98.9

105.6

111.9

104.5

97.4

116.2

104.0

95.2

Consumerwalletandfinances

Healthandeducation

Geopoliticsandgovernment

Foodandtheenvironment

Innovationandtechnology

100.2

89.7

142.0

110.2

97.4

101.6

99.4

102.9

95.6

86.4

117.1

101.3

117.1

114.6

110.6

Lowerstress(lessthanbaselineof100)Higherstress(greaterthanbaselineof100)

Source:KearneyConsumerInstitute

Alternatively,innovationandtechnologywasthe

lowest-stresspillarhere(andthelowest-stresspillarinmanycountries),butitbegsthequestion:Shouldit

be?Respondentswereprimarilyworriedaboutdataprivacy,whichsuggeststhatitisalonger-termissuethatwarrantsmonitoring.

Overall,consumersareaproductoftheirown

environment,andconsumersentimentandstresswillvaryfromcountrytocountry,asillustratedinfigure4.onpage8Ultimately,thereisno“globalconsumer,”

butitispossibletotalkgloballyaboutconsumers.

Allconsumeranxietyisnotcreatedequal

Throughthisanalysis,oneimportantdistinctionthatemergesisbetweengeneralizedstressandanxietyandpersonalstressinducers.Generalizedstress

oftenencapsulatesbroadersocietalconcernsthat

affectawiderangeofindividuals,suchaspolitical

instabilityorglobalconflicts.Thesearefactorsthatcanpermeatethecollectiveconsciousnessand

contributetoasharedsenseofunease.Ontheotherhand,personalstressorsarespecifictoindividual

circumstancesandday-to-daylife,suchasconcernsaboutpersonalfinance,healthcare,oreducation.

Thesignificanceofthisdistinctionoftenliesinthe

varyingdegreesofcontrolthatindividualsmayhave,orfeelthattheyhave,overthesestressors.

Additionally,agreatdealofstressisgeneratedwhenthe“self”—anindividualconsumer—isforcedto

confrontthe“other”—apersonorgroupthatcanbeidentifiedassomehow“different”and,asaresult,

threatening.Thiscanbeseentodayinthestresscreatedbyworryingabouteverythingfrom

immigrationtoAI.

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute6

Influenceandmedia

Thereareimportantinfluencesonstressthatdonotfitneatlyintoapillar.Tostart,anindividual’spersonalnetwork,specificallyfamilyandfriends,canholdthemostinfluentialroleintheirlives.Thiscommunity

validatesandmagnifiespersonalexperiences,

contributingtotheshapingofindividualstress

responses.Thevalues,opinions,andevencoping

mechanismswithinapersonalnetworkcreatea

feedbackloopthatcanexacerbateormitigatestress

factors,influencinghowindividualsnavigatechallengesintheirlives.

Mediaservesasauniversalamplifier,cuttingacrossthediversecategoriesoftheConsumerStressIndexandexertingitsinfluenceonpublicsentiment.For

instance,mediashapeseconomicperceptionsthroughnewsonmarkettrendsandfinancial

indicators,impactingdecisionsandstresslevels.

Geopoliticsandgovernmentisprofoundlyaffectedbymedianarrativesthatshapepublicopinions,trustin

institutions,andconfidenceingovernance.Socialmediaalgorithmsareoftenguiltyofcreatingechochambersthatreinforcebeliefsorattitudes.

Thesynergybetweenthesetwoforcesbecomesevidentwhenconsideringtheinterplaybetweenexternalinfluencesandindividualexperiences.

Mediaintroducesexternalstressorsintothecollectiveconsciousness,andpersonalnetworksmagnifyor

filterthesestressorsbasedonsharedperspectives.Asanoverarchingforce,media’sinfluence

underscorestheinterconnectednatureofstress

factorswithinaconsumer’slifeacrossthepillarsoftheIndex.Anditisnottheonlyexample—many

peoplesurroundthemselveswiththosewhothinkandactsimilarlytothemselves,consciouslyor

subconsciouslycreatingfeedbackloopsandechochambersacrossalloftheIndex’spillars.

Byrecognizingthecross-cuttingroleofmediaandtheconsumer’spersonalsocialnetwork,the

ConsumerStressIndexgainsamorecomprehensiveunderstandingofhowexternalfactorscancollectivelyinfluenceconsumeremotionalwell-being.

i

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute7

Figure4

Largeculturaldifferencesgloballycansignificantlyinfluencestressscores

ConsumerStressIndexscores

(Global)

Germany

Canada

103.7

UK

102.1

France

99.3

USA

Japan

103.5

China

99.6

103.8

UAE

India

Mexico

88.9

94.8

93.7

94.6

Indonesia

91.7

Australia

101.0

Lowerstress(lessthanbaselineof100).Higherstress(greaterthanbaselineof100)

Source:KearneyConsumerInstitute

Thedynamictensionbetweenthesenuanced

sourcesofstressbegsthequestion:Whatwillthe

long-termimplicationsoftheseclashingrealitiesbeonindividualsandsocietiesiftheycan’tberesolved?Forinstance,willthesestressorsforcesocietytowardglobalismorjustfurthertribalismandneo-tribalism?

Thesearethekindofquestionsthatshouldbeaskedbutupuntilnowhaven’tbeen—atleastnotinan

organizedwayorwithafocusonhowtheanswersimpactconsumers.

Diggingoneleveldeeper:incomeisn’teverything

WhiletheintentofthisIndexistoexaminethe

consumerfromamacroperspective,analyzingan“average”losesmuchoftheconsumerindividualitythatexists,andmissesthatineachinstancethere

isacountlessrangeofexperiences.Traditional

demographicfactors,suchasincome,areoftenusedtoparseoutorsegmentconsumerdifferences.

However,arunningthemeofthisIndexistheneed

forbalancingobjectivedatawithqualitativeconsumerinput.

TheKCIcategorizedsurveyrespondentsintofour

distinctgroupsbasedontwocrucialcriteria:incomelevelsandself-reportedlifestylechoicesregarding

financialmanagement.Theincomecriterionwassplitbasedonwithin-countryindividualmedianincome,

whilethelifestylechoicesweredefinedby

respondents’self-reportedhabitsofwhetherthey

werelivingpaycheck-to-paycheckornot(classifiedasliving“withintheirmeans”).Thisdualcategorization

enabledanexplorationoftheintersectionoffinancialandnonfinancialdimensions,offeringamoreholisticunderstandingofconsumerstress.

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute8

Theresultsrevealedastrikingtrend:inmany

countries,respondentswithsimilarlifestylechoicesdemonstratednotablygreatersimilarityintheir

responses,irrespectiveoftheirincomelevels

(samplequestionsandresultsshowninfigure5).

Thisintriguingfindingchallengesconventional

assumptionsthatincomeisaprimarydeterminantofconsumerstress,showingthatfinancialhabitsand

otherlifestylechoicesplayamorepivotalroleinshapingthestressexperiencesofconsumers.

Thesefindingsreiteratethatabroaderapproach,consideringbothfinancialandnonfinancial

dimensions,iscrucialfordevelopingacompleteunderstandingoftheconsumer.

Inmanycountries,respondentswithsimilarlifestyle

choices

demonstrated

notablygreatersimilarityintheirresponses,

irrespectiveof

theirincomelevels.

Figure5

Lifestylechoiceswereastrongerdeterminantofstressresponsesthanincome

Consumersselectingresponses

(%ofrespondents)

“Iamverystressedaboutdebtandsavings.”

49%50%

30%

22%

15%

7%

4%

1

6%

USIndonesia

.Abovemedianincome/withinmeans●

“Ifinditprettystressfultoeathealthyandmanagemydiet.”

33%

31%

17%17%

USIndonesia

2

20%

23%

8%

5%

Belowmedianincome/withinmeans

“Ioftengetstressedwhenitcomestomyphysicalandmentalhealth.”

45%46%

26%25%

8%8%

USIndonesia

24%18%

3

Abovemedianincome/paycheck-to-paycheck.Belowmedianincome/paycheck-to-paycheck

Source:KearneyConsumerInstitute

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute9

Sectionthree:

Catchingconsumerlightninginabottle

Itshouldbereiteratedthatthisistheinaugural

installmentofarecurringindex.Thisreportprovidesabaselinethatwillonlygetricherastimegoesonaseconomicdevelopments,majorevents,andslow

(butmeaningful)changestakeplaceinpeople’slives.

Itshouldalsonotbeforgottenthatforconsumers,perceptionisrealityandthatreactionstostressarecomplexandnuanced.

Putmoresimply,thegoaloftheIndexistohelp

brandsseparatethenoisefromtherealitybasedonconsumerperceptionandconcern.Itwilladdresshoweventsortrendsimpactconsumerstress,

attitudes,andbehavior.Atbest,imperfectanalysis

generatesimperfectinsight.(Seesidebar:Doomsdayscenario,whichshowstheimportanceofaskingtherightquestions.)

TheanalyticsoftheStressIndexcanenable

consumer-facingbusinessestostartlookingattheircurrentandpotentialcustomerswithneweyes,

reevaluatethetraditionaltoolsthey’veusedasabasisfortheirbusinessdecisions,startaskingthemselvesandtheircustomersdifferentandbetterquestions,

andbegintoexplore—andhopefullyembrace—ourmultidimensionalpictureoftheconsumer.

Businessesdesperatelyneedtofindwaystokeepupwiththeconsumer,andtheKearneyConsumerStressIndexisoneverypositivestepintherightdirection.

Doomsdayscenario

Considerascenariowherescientistsandpolitical

leadersaroundtheworldjointlyannouncethattheworldwillendinthreedays.Onecanassumethat

mostpeoplewillreportbeingverystressedatthe

newsthattheywilldiein72hours,butthatreally

doesn’ttellusanythingabouthowthatstresswill

translateintobehaviororwhattrade-offspeoplewillandwon’tmake.

Someconsumerswouldabandontheirwickedwaysandspendthose72hoursinprayerandmeditation.Stillotherswouldtrytopackasmuchsinaspossible

intotheirfinaldays.Asignificantpercentofthe

populationwouldprobablywalkaroundindenialuntiltheyspontaneouslycombust.Andfinallyothers

would“taketothebunkers”withthesametypeof

doomsdayprepbravadothatcausespeopletotryto“rideout”extremeweathereventsfromtornadosto

tsunamis.So,inthisexample,whileasurveycanfindthat“67percentofglobalcitizensare‘very’or‘mildly’concernedtheEarthwillbedestroyedinthreedays,”itcan’tpredictwhatthatmeansintermsofbehavior.Fuzzylogicisagreattoolforoptimizingthe

performanceofelevators,butfuzzycorrelationsaretoooftendeaftothevoiceoftheconsumer.

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute10

Authors

KatieThomas

Lead,KearneyConsumerInstitute,NewYorkkatie.thomas@

GregPortell

Partner,Chicago

greg.portell@

SamuelGray

Consultant,NewYork

samuel.gray@

Theauthorswouldliketothankthefollowingcolleaguesfortheirvaluablecontributionstothisreport:JosephNinaandRyanMathews.

TheinauguralConsumerStressIndexbytheKearneyConsumerInstitute11

Appendix

Methodology

TheIndexwascreatedtoexamineconsumer

behaviorgloballybytakingabroaderviewof

consumersentiment.Itcombinesproprietary

research,surveys,andanalyticswithpublicly

availabledataandreports.Itweighsandbalancesmacroeconomicfactors,consumerflexibility,andconsumersensitivity.

Ourmacroeconomicsourcesincluded50datapointsfromleadingglobalsourcessuchasOxford

Economics,downselectedfrommorethan500

metricsthatwereevaluatedforinclusion.Thesedatapointsareorganizedintofivepillarsacross15

sub-categories.TheintentofthiscomponentoftheIndexistoprovideaquantitative,factualbaselineforinitialanalysisofconsumers.

Boththeconsumerflexibilityandconsumer

sensitivitysectionsuseproprietaryconsumersurveysastheirprimaryinput,withmorethan20,000globalconsumerssurveyed(2,000respondentsineachof12countries).

Thesurveyresultswereusedtodeterminescores

acrosspillarsandsub-categories.Theconsumer

flexibilitycomponentshowsconsumeroptionalityandabilitytoflexto,and/orimpactorinfluence

changingconditions.Theremainderofthemodel—consumersensitivity—reflectsconsumer

top-of-mindnessandfeelingsonpillarsub-factors.

Combined,thethreeelementscreatetheIndex,

thevaluesofwhichreflectrelativechangeswithinacountrybasedonconsumerstress,leadingto

potentialchangesinbehavior.

Howwegotthere:fivepillarsarebetterthanone

TheKCIstartedbylookingatstressorslinkedtothe

consumerwalletandfinances,whichbecamethefirstoffivepillarsthemodelisstructuredaround.These

includevariablessuchasindividualearnings,savingsrates,jobsecurity,andcostofliving.

Whilespendappearstobethemostcommon,viable,andpopularproxyforunderstandingconsumer

behavior,wequicklyconcludedthatitdoesn’t—oratleastshouldn’t—existinavacuum.Purchasingistheendproductofaseriesofconsumerinputs,

influences,thinking,andchoices,but—atleastas

explanationsgo—itisneveranendinitself.That

meantwealsohadtothinkaboutwhichothermacrofactorsweshouldbetrackingtobetterunderstandconsumersandwhatelseweighsontheirminds,

impactinghowtheylive,behave,andshop.

Applyinga“consumer-first”lensenabledusto

identifyfouradditionalpillarsthatweremacroinnatureandhadathroughlinetotheconsumer,

impactingtheoptionsattheirdisposalandtheirpotentialpurchasingbehavior.

Oursecondstresspillar,healthandeducation,

focusesonthelinkbetweeneducationandthe

potentialforgoodhealth.Thispillarincludesnotjustwhathealthandeducationoptionsexistandtheir

cost,buttheirqualityandtheabilityofconsumerstoaccessthem.Asopposedtofocusingonrotedata

pointssuchastestscoresorgraduationrates,this

pillaraimstocapturehowwellnesschoicesaremadeandhowconsumersthinkabouttheirmentaland

physicalhealthtocreateapersonalizeddefinitionofwell-being.Amoreexpansiveviewofthiscategoryleadsustowatchfuturedevelopmentsinareasas

disparateas(social)media’simpactonmental

healthandemotionalwell-being,andthevalueofhigheracademiceducationversustrainingintheskilledtrades.