IEF-2024年8月石油市场月报比较分析（英）-25正式版

August

2024SummaryandOilMarketContextDemandForecastsforshort-termglobaloilconsumptionhaveslightlyreduceddivergencecomparedtolastmonth.OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthdownby0.1mb/dto2.1mb/dfor2024y/yforthefirsttimethisyear,butitsforecastsarestillhigherbymorethanamillionbarrelsadaycomparedtotheIEAandEIA.ThisslightrevisionbyOPECfeaturesrealdatacollectedforthefirstquarterof2024and,incertaininstances,thesecondquarterof2024.Additionally,itreflectsamodestdecreaseingrowthexpectationsforChineseoildemandin2024.Incontrast,theIEAandEIAexpectglobaldemandgrowthof0.9mb/dand1.1mb/d,respectively,forthesameyear.OPEChasalmostmaintaineditsforecastgrowthfor2025at1.8mb/d,whiletheEIAhasreviseditsestimatesdownby0.2mb/dto1.6mb/d,comparedtothe1.8mb/dgrowthinlastmonth’s

estimates.TheIEAhasalsoreviseddownitsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsbyabout0.1mb/dfor2024y/y,whilekeepingthe2025forecastunchanged.SupplyOPEChasmaintaineditsforecastofoilsupplygrowthfromnon-DeclarationofCooperation(non-DoC)countriesataround1.3mb/din2024,andkeptitsforecastgrowthfor2025at1.1mb/dy/y.ThegrowthisprimarilyfueledbyproductionincreasesinBrazil,theUS,andCanadaduringbothyears.TheEIAhaskeptitsforecastsfornon-OPECsupplygrowthat0.8mb/dfor2024y/y,whileslightlydowngradingthe2025growthestimateby0.1mb/dto1.6mb/dy/y.Meanwhile,theIEAhasmaintaineditsnon-DoCsupplygrowthprojectionsat1.5mb/dfor2024y/y,whilerevisingitssupplygrowthforecastupwardby0.1mb/dto1.7mb/din2025y/y.Thedisparityamongtheshort-termnon-DoCsupplygrowthforecastsfromthesethreeorganizationsisexpectedtoreach0.2mb/dfor2024and0.6mb/dfor2025.EconomicGrowth(GDP)andOilDemandTherecentlyreleasedeconomicforecastsoftheOECD,IMF,andWorldBankindicatenotablegrowthdisparitiesfor2025thatunderscoreuncertaintyinrelationtoeconomicgrowthandoildemand.TheOECDandIMFprojectasteadygrowthtrajectoryat3.21percentand3.2percentrespectively,whiletheWorldBankgivesamorecautiousoutlookfor2025at2.7percent.EnergydemandgrowthremainscloselyalignedwithGDPgrowthmainlyindevelopingandemergingeconomies.Althougheconomicrecessionstypicallyresultintemporarydeclinesinoildemand,historicaltrendssuggestthattheseimpactsarelimitedandrapidlyoffsetbysustainedincreasesinoildemand.Thisreboundisoftendrivenbyfactorssuchaslowprices,opportunitiestoreplenishcommercialandstrategicstocksordemandsupportfrommonetaryandfiscalpolicies,includingquantitativeeasing.Overthepasttwodecades,globaloildemandestimatesfromtheIEAandEIAhaveconsistentlyexceededthosefromOPEC.However,sincetheaftermathoftheCOVID-19pandemic,increasinglyambitiousassumptionsregardingoildemandsubstitution-fueledbyrapidadvancementsincleantechnologiesandefficiencyimprovements-havegainedtraction,potentiallyreversingthistrend(seenextpage).CompoundOilMarketVolatilityOilmarketsareexposedtomultiplelayersofuncertaintymanifestindivergingeconomicandoildemandoutlooks,broadeningmilitaryconflictsinboththeMiddleEastandEurope,recentstockmarketcorrectionsaffectingshortandlongoilfuturespositions,andtheuncertainoutcomeofUSElectionsonenergyandclimatepolicy.Digitaldisruptions,anddatadependencyofmonetarypolicyfurthercloudoilmarketsstability.Thoughasoftlandingisstillconsideredmoreprobablethanaglobaldownturn,riskanduncertaintyprevailandcaneasilyshiftconsensus.2Economicgrowthandoildemandovertime110105100958%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%90858075GDPminGDPmaxIEAEIAOPECSource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR,IMF,OECDandWorldBankNote:TherangebetweentheminimumandmaximumGDPvaluesreflectsthedisparityamongthethreereportedfiguresfromtheIMF,WorldBank,andOECDforeachyear.OilDemand(right-lines)andGDPGrowth(left-bars).Thedottedbarsandlinesrepresentforecastedestimates.3Summaryof2023-2025Balances•••OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthdownto2.1mb/dfor2024y/yforthefirsttimethisyear,from2.2mb/dinthelastrevision,whilemaintainingitsforecastfor2025.DespitetheslightrevisiondownfromOPECthismonth,thedivergenceinglobaldemandgrowthforecastsisstillhighacrossthethreeagencies,withmorethanamillionbarrelsperdaydifferencein2024.TheEIAhaskeptitsforecastforglobaldemandgrowththisyearat1.1mb/dwhiledowngradingitsforecastbyapproximately0.2mb/dto1.6mb/dfor2025y/y.2023-2025BalanceSummarylowestforecast202320244Q2420254Q25highestforecast20232023Y/Y1Q242Q24102.8103.7102.845.645.845.457.257.957.475.775.561.361.361.327.127.341.542.441.50.03Q24104.0104.8103.545.946.346.258.158.657.376.175.961.861.262.027.927.642.243.641.620242024Y/Y1Q252Q25103.6105.4104.245.245.945.458.459.558.877.777.063.062.362.626.027.240.643.141.63Q25105.0106.8104.945.946.446.259.160.458.778.177.863.462.463.326.927.141.644.541.620252025Y/YIEA102.1102.2101.845.745.745.656.456.656.274.874.959.860.060.027.326.942.342.241.80.12.12.62.00.10.10.12.02.51.92.42.42.62.62.5-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.1-0.6101.3103.1101.844.845.044.856.558.257.074.975.160.361.060.526.426.741.042.141.30.5103.8105.6103.645.946.246.357.959.457.376.576.262.061.762.127.327.441.843.841.5103.0104.3102.945.545.845.757.458.557.275.875.761.361.361.527.227.341.743.041.50.92.11.1-0.10.20.01.01.91.11.00.81.51.31.5-0.20.4-0.60.8-0.4102.3104.9104.044.845.145.757.559.858.476.576.161.962.361.825.827.940.442.642.2104.8107.3105.145.746.346.459.161.058.778.578.263.663.063.626.426.941.244.341.5103.9106.1104.545.445.945.958.660.258.677.777.363.062.562.826.327.340.943.641.71.01.81.6-0.10.10.21.11.71.41.91.61.71.11.4-0.90.0-0.70.60.3GlobalDemandOECDDemandOPECEIAIEAOPECEIAIEANon-OECDDemandOPECEIANon-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLsIEAEIAIEANon-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLsOPECEIAIEACallonOPECEIAIEACallonDoCCrudeOPECEIAIEAGlobalStockChangeandMiscellaneoustoBalance**OPECEIA-0.2-0.9-1.50.0-0.1-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.6-1.00.00.30.4-0.1Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges4Summaryof2023-2025Balances•TheEIAhasrevisedupitsforecastsforOECDdemandby0.1mb/dfor2024y/y,andthisincreasewasoffsetbyadownwardrevisioningrowthfromnon-OECDcountries,whichkeptglobaldemandunchanged.TheEIA’s2025globaldemandgrowthforecastshowsadownwardrevisionof0.2mb/dy/y.••TheIEAhasreviseddownitsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsby0.1mb/dforboththefullyear2024andthefullyear2025.OPECreleaseditsforecastswithnochangeinnon-DoCsupplygrowthfor2024and2025y/y.Month-on-MonthRevisions:2023-2025BalanceSummary202320244Q2420254Q2520232023Y/Y1Q242Q24-0.1-0.10.23Q24-0.1-0.10.020242024Y/Y1Q252Q25-0.1-0.2-0.10.03Q25-0.1-0.1-0.20.020252025Y/YIEA0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.10.10.10.10.0-0.40.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.30.10.00.00.10.00.00.00.1-0.1-0.40.10.00.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.10.00.0-0.4-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.20.0-0.1-0.2-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.20.0GlobalDemandOECDDemandOPECEIAIEA0.00.00.00.0OPECEIA0.00.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.30.10.00.10.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.0-0.10.0IEA-0.1-0.1-0.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.20.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.20.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.10.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.10.0Non-OECDDemandOPECEIA-0.30.0-0.10.0Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLsIEA0.00.1EIA0.0-0.10.0-0.10.1-0.20.1-0.2-0.10.0-0.20.1-0.10.1IEA0.0Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLsOPECEIA0.00.00.0-0.1-0.20.00.10.10.00.00.0-0.10.1-0.20.0-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.1-0.20.0-0.1-0.20.0-0.20.0-0.2-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1IEA-0.20.1CallonOPECEIA0.00.00.10.10.10.0IEA-0.1-0.10.10.10.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.1-0.10.10.0-0.2-0.30.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.0-0.2-0.20.0CallonDoCCrudeOPECEIA0.0-0.10.1-0.30.1-0.10.00.1IEA0.0GlobalStockChangeandMiscellaneoustoBalance**OPECEIA0.4-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.0Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges52024OutlookComparison6Summaryof2024BalancesandRevisions•OPEChasreviseddownitsforecastforglobaloildemandgrowthin2024by0.1mb/d,bringingthenewprojectionto2.1mb/dy/y.ThismarksthefirsttimeOPEChascutits2024globaldemandgrowthestimatethisyear,althoughitsforecastsremainhigherbymorethanamillionbarrelsadaycomparedtotheprojectionsfromtheIEAandEIA.•EIAhasrevisedupitsOECDdemandgrowthby0.1mb/dforthefullyearin2024,whiletheIEAkeptitsgrowthforecastunchanged.2024BalanceSummaryUpdatedForecastRevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast1Q24101.3103.1101.844.845.044.856.558.257.074.975.160.361.060.526.426.741.042.141.30.52Q24102.8103.7102.845.645.845.457.257.957.475.775.561.361.361.327.127.341.542.441.50.03Q24104.0104.8103.545.946.346.258.158.657.376.175.961.861.262.027.927.642.243.641.64Q24103.8105.6103.645.946.246.357.959.457.376.576.262.061.762.127.327.441.843.841.520242024Y/Y1Q242Q24-0.1-0.10.23Q24-0.1-0.10.04Q24-0.1-0.1-0.10.020242024Y/YIEA103.0104.3102.945.545.845.757.458.557.275.875.761.361.361.527.227.341.743.041.50.92.11.1-0.10.20.01.01.91.11.00.81.51.31.5-0.20.4-0.60.8-0.40.0-0.40.10.0-0.10.00.0-0.30.10.00.00.10.00.00.00.1-0.1-0.40.10.00.4-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.10.0GlobalDemandOECDDemandOPECEIAIEA0.00.00.00.0OPECEIA0.00.00.00.00.00.30.10.00.10.1IEA-0.1-0.1-0.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.20.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.20.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0Non-OECDDemandOPECEIANon-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLsIEAEIA0.0IEA0.0Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLsOPECEIA0.00.00.00.0-0.10.1-0.20.0-0.10.0-0.10.0IEA-0.20.1CallonOPECCrudeCallonDoCCrudeEIA0.00.00.10.1IEA-0.1-0.10.10.10.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.1-0.10.1OPECEIA0.0-0.10.10.1IEAGlobalStockChangeandMisctoBalance**OPECEIA-0.9-1.5-0.1-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.6-0.1-0.10.0-0.1Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges7Evolutionof2024AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts•

OPEChasreviseddownitsglobaloildemandgrowthin2024forthefirsttimethisyear,drivenbynewdatacollectionandslightlyslowerexpectationsforChineseoildemandgrowth.•

TheEIA's2024globaldemandgrowthforecastshowsanupwardrevisionforthefourthconsecutivemonth,drivenbyanincreaseinOECDdemandthismonth.•

IEAreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastfor2024by0.1mb/dy/y.GlobalDemandGrowthEvolutionof2024Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday2.5OECDDemandGrowthEvolutionof2024Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday2.0Non-OECDDemandGrowthEvolutionof2024Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday2.5IEAOPECEIA2.01.51.00.52.01.51.00.51.51.00.50.0-0.5IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA0.00.0ForecastVintageForecastVintageForecastVintageSource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR8OPECforecaststhattotalglobaldemandgrowthisexpectedtobe~1.2mb/dhigherthantheIEA’sforecastfor20242024DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegiony/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperdayRangein2024DemandGrowthForecasts2.5GlobalTotalNon-OECDChina1.2IEA0.9OPECEIA2.01.51.00.50.0-0.50.40.30.30.20.20.10.1TotalOECDOtherNon-OECDMiddleEastRussiaOECDAmericasOECDAsiaOECDEuropeIndia0.10.1Africa0.0millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR9Evolutionof2024AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts•TheEIA’sy/ygrowthinnon-OPECsupplyhasbeenreviseddownforthethirdconsecutivemonth.•TheIEA'sforecastforUSsupplygrowthisstillapproximately0.2mb/dhigherthanthoseforecastedbyOPECandtheEIA.Non-OPECSupplyGrowthNon-DoCSupplyGrowthUSSupplyGrowthEvolutionof2024Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday1.8Evolutionof2024Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday1.8Evolutionof2024Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday1.61.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.21.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.21.41.21.00.80.60.40.2IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA0.00.00.0ForecastVintageForecastVintageForecastVintageNote:BeginninginMay2024,OPECstoppedpublishingsupplyforecastsfornon-OPECmembersoftheDeclarationofCooperation(DoCorcommonlyknownasOPEC+)Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR10EIAandIEAhavealmostsimilarforecastsfortotalNon-DoCsupplygrowth,despitedifferencesintheirprojectionsfortheUSandCanada2024SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegiony/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday1.6Rangein2024SupplyGrowthForecastsTotalNon-DoC0.31.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2IEAOPECEIAUSAfrica0.20.20.2CanadaDoCNGLsChina0.10.10.10.10.1NorwayBrazilMiddleEastS.Am.ex.Brazil0.0millionbarrelsperday11ThedisparitybetweenOPEC's'callonDoC'forecastandthosefromtheIEAandEIArangesfrom1.3mb/dtoapproximately1.5mb/d2024CallonDoCCrudeandRecentDoCProductionLevelsmillionbarrelsperday44.5The“callonDoCcrude”isa44.043.543.042.542.041.541.040.540.039.5calculationandnotaforecastofactualproduction.The“callonDoCcrude”estimateswhatOPEC+wouldneedtoproducetobalanceglobalsupplyanddemand.Itisestimatedbysubtractingaforecastfornon-DoCproductionandDoCNGLsfromglobaldemand.1Q242Q243Q244Q242024AvgIEAEIAOPECApril'24DoCCrudeProductionLevelHistoricalDoCCrudeProductionLevelSource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR122025OutlookComparison13Summaryof2025BalancesandRevisions•••Thedivergenceinglobaloildemandgrowthforecastsamongmajoragenciesremainssignificant,despitethismonth’sdownwardrevisionbytheEIA.AlthoughOPEChasslightlyreviseditsestimatedownwardforglobaldemand,itslevelsremainapproximately0.8mb/dabovetheIEAprojectionsand0.2mb/dhigherthanthoseoftheEIA.TheEIAhasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastdownwardbyapproximately0.2mb/dy/y2025BalanceSummaryUpdatedForecastRevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast1Q25102.3104.9104.044.845.145.757.559.858.476.576.161.962.361.825.827.940.442.642.22Q25103.6105.4104.245.245.945.458.459.558.877.777.063.062.362.626.027.240.643.141.63Q25105.0106.8104.945.946.446.259.160.458.778.177.863.462.463.326.927.141.644.541.64Q25104.8107.3105.145.746.346.459.161.058.778.578.263.663.063.626.426.941.244.341.520252025Y/Y1Q252Q25-0.1-0.2-0.10.03Q25-0.1-0.1-0.20.04Q25-0.1-0.1-0.20.020252025Y/YIEA103.9106.1104.545.445.945.958.660.258.677.777.363.062.562.826.327.340.943.641.71.01.81.6-0.10.10.21.11.71.41.91.61.71.11.4-0.90.0-0.70.60.30.0-0.4-0.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.10.00.0-0.1-0.20.0GlobalDemandOECDDemandOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.0-0.10.0IEA-0.1-0.2-0.10.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.10.0Non-OECDDemandOPECEIA-0.30.0-0.10.0Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLsIEA0.00.1EIA-0.10.0-0.10.1-0.20.1-0.2-0.10.0-0.20.1-0.10.1IEANon-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLsOPECEIA-0.1-0.20.00.10.10.00.0-0.1-0.20.0-0.1-0.20.0-0.20.0-0.2-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1IEACallonOPECEIA0.10.0IEA0.0-0.2-0.30.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.0-0.2-0.20.0CallonDoCCrudeOPECEIA-0.30.1-0.10.0GlobalStockChangeandMisc.toBalance**EIA-1.00.00.30.4-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.0Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges14Thedivergenceinglobaloildemandbetweenthethreeagenciesin4Q25isexpectedtobemorethandoublethedivergenceprojectedfor2Q242024-25GlobalDemandmillionbarrelsperday108107106105104103102101100991Q242Q24OPEC3Q244Q24IEAprevious1Q252Q253Q25EIAprevious4Q25IEAEIAOPECpreviousSource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR15Evolutionof2025AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts•OPEChasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastdownwardforthefirsttimethisyear.•DespitethedownwardrevisionbyOPEC,itsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsisstill0.8mb/dhigherthantheIEA’sprojections.•IEAhasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastsdownwardforthethirdconsecutivemonth.GlobalDemandGrowthEvolutionof2025Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperdayOECDDemandGrowthEvolutionof2025Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday1.8Non-OECDDemandGrowthEvolutionof2025Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday2.02.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2IEAOPECEIAIEAApr-24OPECEIAOct-24Jan-25IEAApr-24OPECEIAOct-24Jan-24Jul-24ForecastVintageJan-25Jan-24Jul-24ForecastVintageJan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25ForecastVintageSource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR16Non-OECDcountriesaccountforapproximately94%oftheglobaldemandgrowthinOPEC’sforecastsandmorethan86%inEIA’sforecasts2025DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegiony/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperdayRangein2025DemandGrowthForecasts2.0GlobalTotalNon-OECDTotalOECDOtherNon-OECDOECDAmericasOECDEuropeMiddleEastChina0.8IEA0.6OPEC0.40.31.5EIA0.20.20.10.11.00.5OECDAsiaIndia0.10.10.0Africa0.00.0Russia-0.5millionbarrelsperday17TheIEAandEIAhaveprojectedstrongernon-DoCsupplygrowthin2025comparedtoOPEC'sforecast2024-25Non-DoCSupplymillionbarrelsperday6464636362626161601Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25IEAprevious2Q253Q254Q25IEAOPECEIAOPECpreviousEIApreviousSource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR18Evolutionof2025AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts•TheIEA’snon-OPECsupplygrowthforecasthassurpassedtheprojectionsmadebytheEIAforthefirsttimethismonth.•TheIEA'sforecastforUSoilsupplygrowthisnearlyalignedwiththeEIA’sprojections,however,bothremainapproximately0.13mb/dhigherthantheOPECestimates.Non-OPECSupplyGrowthEvolutionof2025ForecastsNon-DoCSupplyGrowthEvolutionof2025ForecastsUSSupplyGrowthEvolutionof2025Forecastsy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperdayy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperdayy/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday2.01.81.61.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0IEAApr-24OPECEIAOct-24IEAApr-24OPECEIAOct-24IEAApr-24OPECEIAOct-24Jan-25Jan-24Jul-24ForecastVintageJan-25Jan-24Jul-24ForecastVintageJan-25Jan-24Jul-24ForecastVintageSource:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR19ThedisparitybetweenIEAandEIAforthetotalNon-DoCsupplygrowthforecastswidenedthismonthduetothedownwardrevisionoftheUSsupplygrowthforecast2025SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegiony/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday1.8Rangein2025SupplyGrowthForecastsIEAOPECEIATotalNon-DoC0.51.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2AfricaDoC