高盛-原油-金融需求疲弱实际需求较强 Oil Tracker Record Low Financial Demand vs. Resilient Physical Demand09112024

TheBrentcrudepricecontinuedslidingdownoverthelastweektothelowestlevelsinceDecember2021,withthedisappointingUSjobsreportonFridaypushingBrent+1(646)446-3905|yulia.grigsby@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCclosetoour$70/bblfloorintandemwiththebroaderriskassetsell-off.AnextensionDaanStruyvenofOPEC+productioncutstillDecemberhelpedtokeepthefloorundercrudeprices+1(212)357-4172|daan.struyven@lastweek.BrentedgeduponMondayaswellonincreasingriskstoGulfofMexicoGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCoilproductionfromthestrengtheningTropicalStormFrancineandonhigherUSSPR+1(212)902-3053|purchases.callum.bruce@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCDespitethemacro-drivenselloff,ourtrackablenetsupplydecreasedby-0.6mb/dlastweekonlowerRussiaandCanadaproductionandonamoderaterecoveryinourChinademandnowcast.Incontrasttostrongerphysicaldemand,oilfinancialdemanddroppedtoitsnewall-timelow,andhasplummetedbyamassiveaverage7mb/doverthepasttwomonths.Togetherwiththetighteningphysicalmarket,anynormalizationfromthecurrentlyextremelylowspeculativepositioningandsizableundervaluationoftheBrent1M/36Mtimespreadshouldhelpcrudepricestorecoverfurther,andweexpectBrenttoaverageat$77/bblnextquarter.However,withtheriskstoour$70-85rangestillskewedtothedownsideandabroadlyanticipated2025surplus,positioningandvaluationmayremainlowerforlonger.ChartoftheWeek__Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.报告来源互联网公开数据；如侵权报告仅限社群个人学习，如需它用2.每日分享：6+份行研精选、3个行业主题3.报告查找：群里直接咨询，免费协助查找4.严禁广告：仅限行业报告交流，禁止一切无关信息GoldmanSachsOilTrackerKeyTrendsnOurchartoftheweekshowsthatoilnetmanagedmoneypositioningdroppedtoitsnewall-timelowinthedatastartingfrom2011—58mbbelowitsmonthagorecord-low.oCrudeandmiddledistillatespositioningdrovethedeclineinoilfinancialdemand,withgasolinepositioningholdingsteady(intheCFTC’slatestreportcapturingpositioninguptilllastTuesday).oFinancialdemandplummetedbyover7mb/doverthelasttwomonths,andalthoughittendstomeanreverthistorically,positioningmayremain_depressedintheabsenceofacatalystonbroaderexpectationsofsofter2025balances._nFurtheronthepositivesideforprices:oOurRussiaproductionnowcastdecreasedby0.2mb/dlastweekasseaborneexportsdecreased,largelydrivenbymaintenanceatanoffshoreArcticfield.oOurCanadaoilproductionnowcastedgeddownlastweek,butisstillroughlyinlinewithourAugustexpectations.oOurChinaoildemandnowcastincreasedby0.3mb/dlastweekinthefirstearlySeptemberreadingondrawsinproductsstocksandhigherrefineryruns.nTherecentpick-upinChinatrafficcongestionindexalsoimpliesthatJulyandAugustweather-relatedactivityweaknessisreversing.nOurChinaeconomistsexpectChinaGDPgrowthtopickupin2024H2asthegovernmentremainscommittedtothe“around5%”GDPtarget.oOurOECDEuropeoildemandnowcastremainedat14.2mb/dlastweek,0.6mb/daboveIEAJulyexpectationsonstronggasolineandjetfueldemand.9September20242GoldmanSachsOilTrackeroThesteepfront-drivenselloffincreasedBrent1M/36Mundervaluationto$5-10/bblwhileourOECDoilcommercialstocksnowcastedgeddownlastweek.nOurtrackingofvisibleglobaloilcommercialstocksdecreasedby21mblastweekonlargerEMdrawsonwater.nOnthenegativesideforprices:oTheCanadaoilandgasrigcountincreasedby25inAugust(orby13%)fromJuly.oOurLibyaproductionnowcastremainedinlinewithourAugustexpectationsof1.1mb/d,whilesometankerswerereportedlyloadingcrudefromstorageandsomeoilfieldsstartedtoreceiveorderstobringbackproduction.nLibya’seasternandwesterngovernmentsreportedlymovedclosertoanagreementlastweek,andwenowexpectLibyaoilproductiontorecoverbyearlyOctober.nHowever,MurbanprompttimespreadsremainedhighlastweekasLibyaproductiondisruptionsputanupsidepressureonthepricesofotherregionallightgrades.oDespitesomepressreportsindicatingfadingchancesofaceasefireinIsrael-Hamaswar,thecalloptionsimpliedvolatilityskewdroppedtoitsyear-to-datelow.IndicatorCurrentvalueSupply4836.13.61.1US4836.13.61.1_Canadaliquidsnowcast(mb/d)Russialiquidsnowcast(mb/d)Irancrudenowcast(mb/d)_Libyacrudenowcast(mb/d)DemandChinaoil(mb/d)Totalchangeintrackableimbalance,Supply-Demand(mb/d)Inventories28154787-141.40.9OECDcommercialstocks(mb)Global28154787-141.40.9TimespreadsBrent1M/36Mgapwithfairvalue(pp)Averagecrudebasis(%,changeinpp)Averagecrudeprompttimespread(%,changeinpp)Oilnetmanagedmoneypositioning(mb)Changefromlastweek00000-0.50.0-113Changefrom4weeksago00.10.1-0.10.4-100.3-589September20243GoldmanSachsOilTracker__9September20244GoldmanSachsOilTracker__9September20245GoldmanSachsOilTracker__9September20246GoldmanSachsOilTracker__9September20247GoldmanSachsOilTracker__9September20248GoldmanSachsOilTrackerGlobalTotalOilCommercialVisibleStocksChangeFromWeekAgoChangeFrom4WeeksAgoTimelyStocksDataKplerOilonWaterTotalLandedCrudeTotalOilonWaterTotalOilRegionJapanSingaporeDMinmb0013in%-0.20.00.83.32.1-2.4-0.5-0.1-1.3-0.4inmb033000in%-0.20.06.36.10.50.7-3.2-0.7-0.50.0-0.5LastDateofMostRecentCoverage9/6/20249/6/20248/30/20247/31/20249/1/20248/31/20249/1/20249/2/20249/4/20249/6/20249/6/2024__9September20249GoldmanSachsOilTracker__9September2024GoldmanSachsOilTrackerOpenTradePerformances($/bbl)TradeNameTradeSpecificationOpeningDateValueatOpeningCurrentLevelChangeSinceOpening7-DayChangeStructurallyStrongDieselLongDec-24NWEuropean(ARA)Gasoil-BrentCracks2024-03-1123.5816.71-6.86-1.12PerformanceofTradesClosedSinceJan1st2024($/bbl)TradeNameSummerGasolineTightnessOPECRangeSummer24ConstructiveCrude_OPECRangeWinter24ShortPut_Summer24DeficitOPECRangeWinter24TradeSpecificationLongsummer(2Q24&3Q24)EBOBgasoline-BrentcracksShortJun24Brent$70put,long$80/$90callspreadLongDec24BrentShortDec24Brent$70putLongAug/Sep-24BrentspreadsLongDec24Brent$80/$90callspreadOpeningDate2023-10-032023-12-172022-09-272024-02-232023-11-162024-02-23ValueatOpening-0.2271.254.260.263.30ClosingDate2024-02-062024-02-252024-03-132024-03-132024-04-072024-06-25ValueatClosing2.293.070.964.43ProfitatClosing5.842.518.440.709September2024GoldmanSachsOilTracker__9September2024GoldmanSachsOilTracker1.Russiatotalliquidsproductionnowcast:OurRussiasupplynowcastestimatestotalliquidsproductionasthesumofrefineryruns,crudestockchangesatportsandrefineries,andcrudeseaborneandpipelineexports(latestmethodologyhere).2.USLower48crudeproductionnowcast:OurLower48crudeproductionnowcastincludesallcrudeproductionfromtheUSexcludingAlaskaandtheGulfofMexico.Weestimatecrudeproductionusingdailypipeline-impliedflowsfromGenscape,_equipmentneededtofractureoilwells(fracspreads),andthegapbetweenofficialEIAandpipeline-basedproductionestimates(latestmethodologyhere.)_3.Irancrudeproductionnowcast:OurIransupplynowcastestimatescrudeproductionasthesumoftrackedcrudeexports,untrackedcrudeexports,refineryintakeofcrude,andchangesincrudeinventories(latestmethodologyhere).4.Libyacrudeproductionnowcast:OurLibyasupplynowcastestimatescrudeproductionasthesumoftrackedcrudeexports,refineryintakeofcrude,andchangesincrudeinventories.5.Canadatotalliquidsproductionnowcast:OurCanadasupplynowcastestimatestotalliquidsproductionusingchangesinAlbertaproductionandchangesinimpliedproductiondefinedasthesumofexports,refineryruns,andchangesincrudeinventories(latestmethodologyhere)6.OPECmodelimpliedprobability:OurestimatedprobabilityofOPECproductiondecisionisbasedonanunweightedaverageoffiveorderedmultinomiallogitmodelsthatregressOPECdecisionstodecrease,hold,orincreaseproductionon9September2024GoldmanSachsOilTracker7.8.9.__OECDcommercialstocks,cyclicaloilpricemoves,Saudi’smarketshare,andspeculativepositioning(latestmethodologyhere).Chinademand:Weperformabottom-upnowcastofChinaoilproductsdemandasthesumofrefineryruns,netproductsimports,andproductstockdraws.WemodelmonthlychangesinS&PrefineryrunsasafunctionofmonthlychangesinrefineryutilizationratesfromMysteel,andmonthlychangesincapacityutilizationfromIIR.Wethenestimatemodel-implied4-weekchangesinweeklyrefineryrunsfrom4-weekchangesinthe4-weekmovingaverageofrefineryutilizationratesandslow-movingchangesincapacity.Weinitializeourrefineryrunsnowcasttomatchthelevelof“realized”refineryrunsoverthelast2years.Similarly,wemodelchangesinGTTnetimportsofproductsasafunctionofmonthlychangesinKplernetimportsofthecorrespondingproducts.Wesmooththefinalnowcastusinga2-weekmovingaverage(latestmethodologyhere).OECDEuropedemand:WeestimateOECDEuropedemandbasedondemandintheEU4(Germany,France,SpainandItaly),andincorporatejetdemandusingourjetfueldemandmodel.Ournowcastusestimelyinputsonoilmarkets(e.g.refineryruns),macroactivity(e.g.PMIs),fuelretailsales,preliminarynationaloildemandreleases,andflightschedules(latestmethodologyhere).Jetdemand:Ourmethodologyformeasuringjetfueldemandusesglobalcommercialflightscheduledatacombinedwithouraircraftefficiencydatabase.WefurthercalibratethismodelonmonthlyIEA/JODI/Woodmacjet-typekerosenedemanddatafortheOECDandahandfulofothercountriestoestimatenon-commercialflightdemand(latestmethodologyhere).Globaltotaloilcommercialvisiblestocks:Weaddupallvisibleoilstocksforbothcrudeandproductswithoutanyrescaling.Ourdataincludesonshorecrudestocks,crudeoilonwater,productsonwater,andmeasuresofproductsstocksatvariouslocations.ThelocationsaretheUS,16EuropeanMajors,ARA(Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam)inEurope,Japan,FujairahintheMiddleEast,andSingaporeandthelocationscoveredbyLongzhonginChina.TheChinaLongzhongstockscoverallstocksexceptforthoseatSOErefineries,gasstations,andthenationalstrategicreserves.OECDcommercialstocks:OurOECDcommercialstocksnowcastconsistsofseveralregion-andproduct-specificmodels,whichregressIEAmonthlyhistoricaldataonhighfrequencystocksmeasures.WemodelmonthlychangesinOECDcommercialstockscomponentsusingrelevanthigh-frequencystocksandtradedata,seasonality,Covideffects,andlaggedstockchangesforproducts(latestmethodologyhere).Brenttimespreads:WeestimatetimespreadsusingourOECDcommercialstocksnowcastandourOECDdemandforecast.WeestimateBrent1/36Mtimespreadsbasedonthehistoricalrelationshipwith1-4MaheadOECDcommercialstocksasdaysofdemandcovered(DoDC)vstheir5-yraverageafteraccountingfortheimpactof3-YearUSTreasuryyields.WekeepstocksasDoDCvstheir5-yraverageconstantoverthenext1-4monthsatthemostrecentobservationbasedonournowcast(latestmethodologyhere).Finally,weremoveMarch2020-February20239September2024GoldmanSachsOilTrackerobservationsfromoursampletocalculatethe5-yearaverageforOECDcommercialstocksDoDc.13.ReleaselagsfornowcastsusingKplerexportsandinventoriesdata:Giventhefrequentandsizablerevisionstotheearlyvintagesofhighfrequencydata,wewait3and7daysbeforepublishingnowcastsusinghighfrequencyinventoriesandexportsKplerdata,respectively.__9September2024GoldmanSachsOilTrackerWe,YuliaZhestkovaGrigsby,DaanStruyvenandCallumBruce,CFA,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasaprincipalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedintheBankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Inproducingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhasbeenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonanysuchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicyStatementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersofsecuritiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunderapplicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldmanSachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:FurtherinformationonthesecuritiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,Research_Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmayb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