2024年法国立法选举情况分析报告-外文版培训课件2024.7temu

POLITICS

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SOCIETYLegislativeelections2024inFranceCHAPTER

01ElectoralcontextFrenchopinionafterthedissolutionoftheNationalAssemblybyPresidentMacroninJune2024FrenchopinionafterthedissolutionoftheNationalAssemblybyMacronin2024Shareofrespondents15%0%5%10%20%25%30%IncomprehensionHope26%24%Fear21%IndifferenceAnger10%9%Relief7%Joy3%3Description:OntheJune9,2024,aftertheresultsoftheEuropeanelections,PresidentEmmanuelMacrondecidedtodissolvetheNationalAssembly.ThiscameshortlyafterhispartywasdefeatedbyNationalRally,thefar-rightpartyofMarineLePen,andtheiryoungleader,JordanBardella.Accordingtoasurveyconductedafewdaysaftertheelection,mostrespondentshadanegativeimpressionofthedissolutionandindicatedtheyfeltincomprehension,fear,oranger.Ontheotherhand,around[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June21to24,2024;11,820respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):IpsosMostdecisiveissuesforthelegislativeelectionsinFranceasofJune2024MostdecisiveissuesforthelegislativeelectionsinFrancein2024Shareofrespondents0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Purchasingpower59%Immigration38%Health32%Crime27%EcologySocialinequalitiesEducation22%19%17%Pensions15%14%13%GovernmentdebtFrance'sroleinEuropeandintheworldTerrorism11%TaxationWarinUkraine9%9%4Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinJune2024,59percentofFrenchrespondentsdeclaredthatpurchasingpowerwillbeoneofthemostimportantissuesintheirchoiceforthevoteinthelegislativeelectionsof2024.Overone-thirdoftherespondentsalsomentionedimmigration,asoneofthemostdecisiveissues.Ontheotherhand,unemploymentwascitedbyonly5percentofthosesurveyed.ReadmoreNote(s):France;June27to28,2024;10,286respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):Ipsos;TalanNumberofcandidatesforthelegislativeelectionsinFrancefrom1988and2024NumberofcandidatesforthelegislativeelectionsinFrance1988-20249,0008,0007,0008,4437,8777,6336,6036,3606,2906,0005,0004,0003,0002,0005,2204,01020242,843198819931997200220072012201720225Description:InFrance,forthelegislativeelectionsin2024,around4,000candidateswerecompetingforthe577seatsintheNationalAssembly.Thisrepresentedadecreaseof2,300candidateswhencomparedtothepreviouselection.Onthe9thofJune2024,aftertheresultsoftheEuropeanelections,PresidentMacrondissolvedtheNationalAssemblyandcalledfornewlegislativeelections.Thefirstroundoftheseelectionswastobeheldonthe30thofJune,thereforecandidateshadlittletimeto[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;1988-2024Source(s):FranceInfo;MinistryoftheInterior(France)ForecastshareofvotesinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFranceinJune2024ForecastshareofvotesinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsFrance2024NationalRallyNewPopularFrontPresidentialmajorityLesRépublicainsReconquête!36%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%36%36%29%35.5%35%29%34%29%29.5%20.5%29%21%28.5%21%22%21.5%21%7%7%6.5%1.5%6.5%1.5%6.5%1.5%6%2%1%1%0%June19June20June21June23June25June276Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedjustafewdaysbeforetheanticipatedlegislativeelectionsofJune2024inFrance,morethanoneoutofthreevotersintendedtovotefortheNationalRally.Indeed,MarineLePen'spartyreachedhistoricalscoresintheEuropeanelectionsof2024,whichledPresidentMacrontodissolvetheNationalAssemblyandcallfornewparliamentaryelections.Ontheotherhand,almost30percentofthevotersintendedtovotefortheNewPopularFront,acoalitionof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June24to27,2024;2,823respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):IFOPCHAPTER

02PastlegislativeresultsShareofvoteformajorcenter-rightandleftpartiesinlegislativeelectionsinFrancefrom1962to2024Shareofvoteformajorcenter-rightandleftpartiesinFrance1962-2024Centre-RightParties*SocialistParty45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%196219671968197319781981198619881993199720022007201220172022*2024*8Description:IntheFrenchlegislativeelectionsofJune2024,EricCiotti,presidentofLesRépublicains(center-right),decidedtoformacoalitionwiththeNationalRallywithoutpreviousconsultationwithhisparty'sleaders.Therefore,somepartymemberschosetofollowCiottiinthealliancewiththefar-right,andothersdeclaredtheiroppositiontothecoalition.Asaresult,LesRépublicainshaditslowestshareofvotesinover50years.Ontheotherhand,tosurvive,theSocialistPartywasincorporatedinto[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;1962to2024;*2022-2024TheSocialistPartywasincorporatedintotheNUPEScoalition(NewEcologicalandSocialPopularUnion)alongwithLaFranceInsoumise,Ecologists,andCommunists.In2024,thecoalitionwasrenamed[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):MinistryoftheInterior(France)ResultsofthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrancein2022,bysocio-professionalcategoryFirst-roundresultsofthelegislativeelectionsinFrancein2022ShareofrespondentsNUPES*Far-leftVariousLeftVariousEcologistsEnsemble!(Presidentialmajority)VariousCenterSouverainistrightReconquête!LR-Uniondesdémocratesetindépendants-VariousRightRassemblementNationalOtherExecutivesIntermediateprofessionsEmployeesWorkersRetired9Description:ThefirstroundoflegislativeelectionstookplaceonSunday,June12thinFrance.Thepresidentialmajorityparty,Ensemble!,andtheNUPES(NouvelleUnionPopulaireEcologiqueetSociale)coalitionofpartiescameinneckandneck,with25.75and25.66percentofthevote,respectively.NUPESvotersweremorenumerousamongtheintermediateprofessionsandemployees,whileEnsemble!votersweremorenumerousamongretirees.

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June8to11,2022;4,000respondents;18yearsandolder;registeredvoters;*NouvelleUnionPopulaireEcologisteetSociale(NewPopularEcologicalandSocialUnion)

ReadmoreSource(s):France24;FranceMédiasMonde;Ipsos;LCP-Assembléenationale;RadioFrance;RFI;TVFranceInternationalShareofpeoplewhovotedforcandidatesoftheNationalRallyandReconquête!partiesinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrancein2022,byageVotesforthefarrightinFrenchlegislativeelections2022,byageNationalRallyReconquête!0.35%0.3%0.25%0.2%0.15%0.1%0.05%0%3%2%5%4%18%5%30%4%12%26%18%13%18-24yearsold25-34yearsold35-49yearsold50-59yearsold60-69yearsold70yearsandover10Description:AquarterofFrenchpeopleregisteredtovotechoseafar-rightcandidateintheirelectoraldistrictforthe2022parliamentaryelection.ThecitizensmostsupportiveoftheNationalRallyandReconquête!candidateswerethosebetweentheagesof35and59.InthefirstroundoftheApril2022presidentialelections,MarineLePenreceived23.2percentofthevote,thehighestscoreeverrecordedbytheNationalRallyinapresidentialelectionsinceitscreation.

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June8to11,2022;4,000respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):FranceInfo;FranceInter;FranceMédiasMonde;Ipsos;LCP-Assembléenationale;RadioFrance;RFIShareofpeoplewhovotedforcandidatesoftheNationalRallyandReconquête!partiesinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrancein2022,bysocio-professionalcategoryVotesforfar-rightpartiesintheFrenchlegislativeelectionsin2022NationalRallyReconquête!0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%4%3%45%2%4%4%25%20%12%11%ExecutivesIntermediateprofessionsEmployeesWorkersRetired11Description:AquarterofFrenchpeoplewhovotedinthe2022legislativeelectionssupportedafar-rightcandidateintheirdistrict.Thisproportionwasevenhigheramongemployeesandworkers:amongthelatter,oneintwopeoplevotedforacandidateofReconquête!orMarineLePen'sparty.InthefirstroundoftheApril2022presidentialelections,theNationalRallycandidatereceived23.2percentofthevote,thehighestscoreeverrecordedbythefar-rightpartyinapresidentialelectionsinceits[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June8to11,2022;4,000respondents;18yearsandolder;registeredvotersSource(s):France24;FranceMédiasMonde;Ipsos;LCP-Assembléenationale;RadioFrance;RFI;TVFranceInternationalShareofvotesobtainedbycandidatesinduelsbetweenNUPESandEnsemble!inthesecondroundofthelegislativeelectioninFrancein2022,byvoteinthefirstroundVotetransfersbetweenthetworoundsofthelegislativeelectionsinFrance2022ShareofvotesNouvelleUnionPopulaireEcologiqueetSociale(NUPES)*0%

20%Ensemble!(Presidentialmajority)40%

60%Abstention80%100%01

%%120%NouvelleUnionPopulaireEcologiqueetSociale(NUPES)*VariousLeft(excludingNUPES)99%55%40%5%Ensemble!(Presidentialmajority)

%99%1%5%60%35%LesRépublicains-UDI**-VariousrightNationalRally30%18%52%5%40%55%Reconquête!12Description:InthesecondroundoflegislativeelectionsinFrance,themostfrequentduelswerebetweenthecandidatesofEnsemble!(presidentialmajorityparty)andthoseoftheNouvelleUnionPopulaireEcologiqueetSociale(acoalitionofleft-wingparties).Theoutgoingmajorityandtheleft-wingalliancefacedeachotherin271ofthe577electoraldistricts.Politically,itseemsthatthemobilizationdifferentialwasnotfavorabletothecandidatesofthefar-rightparties:morethanhalfofthevoterswho[...]ReadmoreNote(s):France;June15-18,2022;4,004respondents;18yearsandolder;Registeredvoters;*NewPopularEcologicalandSocialUnion**UniondesDémocratesetIndépendants(UnionofDemocratsandIndependents)Thesourceaddsthe[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):France24;FranceInfo;FranceInter;FranceMédiasMonde;Ipsos;LCP-Assembléenationale;RadioFrance;RFINumberofseatsobtainedbypoliticalpartiesintheNationalAssemblyafterthesecondroundoflegislativeelectionsinFrancein2022SeatsobtainedintheNationalAssemblyaftertheFrenchlegislativeelections2022Numberofseats050100150200250300Ensemble!(presidentialmajority)NUPES*245131NationalRally8961LesRépublicainsVariousleft22Regionalist

10Variousright-wingparties

10Variouscenter43UniondesDémocratesetdesIndépendants**Various

1SovereignRight

1Ecologists13Description:AccordingtofiguresfromtheFrenchMinistryoftheInterior,bytheendofthesecondroundofthe2022legislativeelections,Ensemble!,thepartyofthepresidentialmajority(LREMandMoDem),hadwon245seatsintheNationalAssembly,105fewerthanin2017.TheNouvelleUnionPopulaireEcologiqueetSociale(NUPES)cameinsecondwith131seats,becomingthemainoppositionforce,aheadoftheNationalRally,whichwon89seats,wellbeyondthe15requiredtoforma[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June19,2022;*Newecologicalandsocialpopularunion**UnionofDemocratsandIndependentsReadmoreSource(s):MinistryoftheInterior(France)CHAPTER

03Legislativeresultsof2024ShareofvotesinthefirstroundoflegislativeelectionsinFrancein2024,bypoliticalpartyFrenchlegislativeelections'firstroundresultsin2024,bypoliticalparty0.35%29.25%0.3%0.25%0.2%0.15%0.1%0.05%0%27.99%20.04%6.57%Les3.9%Les3.66%2.89%1.53%1.22%1.15%1.05%0.75%National

NewPopular

PresidentialRallyVariousright

VariousleftVariouscentreFarleftRegionalistsReconquête!

OthersFrontmajority

RépublicainsRépublicainsandNationalRallycoalition*15Description:InthefirstroundoftheFrenchlegislativeelectionsin2024,theNationalRallycamefirstwith29.25percentofthevotes.Dependingonthesource,theresultsofthefar-rightpartyevenreached33percent,whenaddingthescoreofthealliancewithLesRépublicains,whichrepresentedalmostfourpercentofthevotes.Ontheotherhand,theNewPopularFrontcoalition,whichgroupsmostoftheleftistparties,wonaround28percentofthevotes.

ReadmoreNote(s):France;*DuringthelegislativeelectionsinJune2024,EricCiotti,presidentofLesRépublicains,decidedtoformacoalitionwiththeNationalRallywithoutpreviousconsultationwithhisparty'sleaders.Therefore,somepartymembers[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):MinistryoftheInterior(France)BreakdownofvotescastinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFranceon30June2024,byageVotescastinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrance2024,byageNewPopularFrontPresidentialmajorityLesRépublicainsNationalRallyOther0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%48%40%38%36%35%33%32%32%31%29%25%18%24%21%18%17%14%13%11%10%9%9%9%9%8%7%7%7%6%4%18-2425-3435-4950-5960-6970andolder16Description:InthefirstroundoftheFrenchlegislativeelectionsin2024,48percentofvotersaged18-24votedfortheNewPopularFrontcoalition.However,theolderthevoterswere,thelesslikelytheyweretovotefortheleftistalliance.Ontheotherhand,thepresidentialmajorityscoregrewproportionallywiththevoter'sagegroup.Forinstance,32percentofthe70andoldervotedforEmmanuelMacron'sparty.Finally,thefar-rightNationalRallywonaround30and40percentofvotes,regardlessof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June2024;18yearsandolderSource(s):FranceTélévisions;Ipsos;TalanBreakdownofvotescastinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFranceonJune30,2024,bydiplomaVotescastinthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrance2024,bydiplomaNewPopularFrontPresidentialmajorityLesRépublicainsNationalRallyOther1.2%1%7%7%7%7%22%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0%32%38%49%12%22%11%22%8%10%17%19%37%28%26%17%LessthanbaccalaureateBaccalaureateBaccalaureate+2years*Bachelor,Master,Doctorate17Description:InthefirstroundoftheFrenchlegislativeelectionsin2024,49percentofvoterswhograduatedwithadiplomainferiortothebaccalaureatelevelvotedfortheNationalRally.However,themoreeducatedthevoterswere,thelesslikelytheyweretovoteforthefar-rightparty.Bycontrast,theNewPopularFrontvotesharegrewproportionallywithavoters'diplomalevel.Forinstance,37percentofpeoplewhograduatedwithahighereducationdegreevotedfortheleftistcoalition.

ReadmoreNote(s):France;June30,2024;18yearsandolder;*Peoplewhograduatedfromprofessionally-orientedtraining,twoyearspost-baccalaureate.

ReadmoreSource(s):FranceTélévisions;Ipsos;TalanConfigurationattheendofthe1stroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrancefrom2002to2024Configurationafterthe1stroundofthelegislativeelectionsFrance2002-2024QuadrangularsTriangularsDuelsMPselectedinthefirstroundSinglecandidate53700600500400300200100032410155836492347611019030657156250646410020020751000120072012201720222024*18Description:AttheendofthefirstroundoftheFrenchlegislativeelectionsinJune2024,therewere190duelsplannedforthesecondround,meaningtwocandidatesqualifiedin190ofthe577electoraldistricts.Onlycandidateswhoobtainedseveralvotesequalto12.5percentofthoseregisteredcouldremaininthesecondround.Usually,thismeantasecondroundwithamajorityofduels,likein2017or2022.However,in2024,theparticipationratewasparticularlyhigh,whichgenerated306triangulars,[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;2002-2024;*Somecandidatespartoftriangularsandquadrangularsmightwithdrawbetweenthetworounds.

DuringthefirstroundoftheFrenchlegislativeelections,candidatesmaygotothesecondroundiftheywinseveral[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):FranceInfo;MinistryoftheInterior(France)NumberofseatswonpercoalitiongroupinthesecondroundofvotingintheFrenchlegislativeelectionJuly7,2024Frenchelection2024:seatswonpercoalitioninthesecondroundonJuly7,2024200182180160140120100801681436060401320110NewPopularFrontEnsembleAllianceNationalRally+alliesLesRépublicains+RightOtherLeftOthersCoalitiongroup19Description:NotonlyweretheFrenchlegislativeelectionsof2024oneofthemostunexpectedelectionsoftheyear,buttheyalsoreturnedoneofthemostunexpectedresults.TheelectionswerecalledwhenPresidentMacrondissolvedtheFrenchparliamentfollowingthesurgeinsupportforthefar-rightparty,theNationalRally,intheEuropeanParliamentaryelectionsinearlyJune.ThefirstroundofvotingtookplaceonJune30,withtheNationalRallycomingoutaheadwiththelargestvoteshare,at[...]ReadmoreNote(s):France;July7,2024Source(s):MinistryoftheInterior(France)Numberofseatswoninthree-wayracesinthesecondroundofvotingintheFrenchlegislativeelectionJuly7,2024SeatswonintriangularsinthesecondroundofFrenchlegislativeelections2024504745403530252015105277332110NewPopularFrontEnsemble-presidentialmajorityNationalRallyLesRépublicains-NationalRally*VariousrightLesRépublicainsHorizons**Variouscentre20Description:IntheFrenchlegislativeelectionsof2024,thelargelevelofpolarizationbetweenthreemaingroups(NewPopularFront,presidentialmajority,andNationalRally),butalsothehighparticipationandthelownumberofcandidates,meantthat,duetoFrance'selectoralsystem,therewereanunprecedentednumberofthree-wayracesinthesecondroundofvoting(andeventwofour-wayraces).Amongthe91triangularsandquadrangulars,theleft-wingcoalitionoftheNewPopularFrontwon[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;July8,2024Source(s):LeFigaro;MinistryoftheInterior(France)CHAPTER

04ParticipationandabstentionShareofregisteredvoterswhovotedinlegislativeelectionsinFrancefrom1958to2024,byroundVoterturnoutinlegislativeelectionsinFrance1958-2024,byround1stround2ndround0.9%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%19581962196719681973197819811986*19881993199720022007201220172022202422Description:Onthe9thofJune2024,aftertheresultsoftheEuropeanelectionsandtheimportantscoreoftheNationalRally,France'sfirstfar-rightparty,PresidentEmmanuelMacrondissolvedtheNationalAssemblyandcalledforlegislativeelections.Afterashortelectoralcampaign,morethan66percentoftheFrenchregisteredvotersstillwenttovoteinthefirstroundoftheelection.Thisrepresentedanincreaseofalmost20pointsofpercentagecomparedwiththepreviouselectionsof2022.

ReadmoreNote(s):France;1958to2024;*Unlikethepreviouselectionsandthefollowing,the1986electionswereheldbyproportionalrepresentationinoneround.Theelectionofdeputiesbyproportionalrepresentationhadbeenadoptedin1985,during[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):MinistryoftheInterior(France);Toutel'EuropeRateofabstentioninlegislativeelectionsinFrancebetween1958and2024AbstentionrateinparliamentaryelectionsinFrance1958-2024FirstroundSecondround60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%19581962196719681973197819811986*19881993199720022007201220172022202423Description:Since1997,theabstentionrateduringtheFrenchlegislativeelectionsincreased,goingfromaround32percentto52.5percentin2022,duringthefirstround.However,onthe9thofJune2024,aftertheresultsoftheEuropeanelectionsandtheimportantscoreoftheNationalRally,France'sfirstfar-rightparty,PresidentEmmanuelMacrondissolvedtheNationalAssemblyandcalledforlegislativeelections.Frenchpeopleshowedtheirinterestinthatelection,andtheabstentionratefellto[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;1958to2024;*In1986therewasonlyoneroundbecauseforthefirstandonlytimeintheFifthRepublic,thelegislativeelectionswereheldundertheproportionalrepresentationsystem(departmentalsingleround),andnot[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):FranceInfo;MinistryoftheInterior(France)RateofabstentioninthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrancein2024,byageRateofabstentioninthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrance20240.6%49%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%43%39%34%34.2%26%20%18-2425-3435-4950-5960-6970andoverTotal24Description:DuringthefirstroundoftheFrenchlegislativeelectionsin2024,around35percentoftheregisteredvotersdidnotvote.However,abstentionvarieddependingonagegroups.Forinstance,abstentionwashigheramongyouthcomparedtoolderagegroups.Indeed,almost50percentofvotersaged25-34didnotvote,whilevotersaged70andolderwereonly20percenttoabstain.

ReadmoreNote(s):France;10,286respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):Ipsos;TalanRateofabstentioninthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrancein2024,bysocio-professionalcategoryRateofabstentioninthefirstroundofthelegislativeelectionsinFrance20240.5%46%0.45%42%0.4%0.35%0.3%38%35%34.2%0.25%0.2%21%0.15%0.1%0.05%0%ExecutiveIntermediateprofessionEmployeeWorkerRetiredTotal25Description:DuringthefirstroundoftheFrenchlegislativeelectionsin2024,around35percentoftheregisteredvotersdidnotvote.However,abstentionvarieddependingonthesocio-professionalcategory.Forinstance,46percentoftheworkersdidnotvotewhileonly35percentoftheexecutivesabstained.Finally,onlyonepensioneroutoffivedidnotvote.ReadmoreNote(s):France;10,286respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):Ipsos;TalanCHAPTER

05PublicopinionAreyoumoreinfavorofanabsoluteorrelativemajorityintheNationalAssembly?FrenchpreferenceforabsoluteorrelativemajorityintheNationalAssemblyin2023Absolutemajority*41%Relativemajority*59%27Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinSeptember2023,almost60percentofFrenchrespondentsdeclaredtheywereinfavorofarelativemajorityintheNationalAssembly.Arelativemajorityimpliesthatthegovernmentisforcedtotakeintoaccounttheoppositionforces'opinionswhenpassingthelaws.Ontheopposite,inasituationofabsolutemajority,lawsarepassedquickly,bythemajorityinpower.ReadmoreNote(s):France;September15to

18,2023;1,500respondents;18yearsandolder;*TheabsolutemajorityintheNationalAssemblyissetat289seats.Ifapoliticalgroup,orcoalition,reachesthisnumber-andifthismajoritydemonstratesunity[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):FondationJean-Jaurès;InstitutMontaigne;Ipsos;LeMonde;SciencesPoEvolutionofFrenchsatisfactiontowardsPresidentEmmanuelMacron'sactionbetweenApril2018andApril2024EvolutionofFrenchsatisfactiontowardsEmmanuelMacron'saction2018-2024VerysatisfiedRathersatisfiedNotreallysatisfiedNotsatisfiedatall50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%43%38%34%33%30%33%31%32%31%21%30%24%6%5%5%4%0%April2018October2019April2021April202428Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinApril2024,twoyearsafterEmmanuelMacron'sreelectionasFrance'spresident,around43percentofFrenchrespondentsdeclaredtheywerenotsatisfiedatallwithhisacti