2024年美国总统选举情况分析报告-外文版培训课件2024.7temu特朗普

POLITICS

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SOCIETY2024U.S.PresidentialElectionCHAPTER

01OverviewShareofpeopleregisteredtovoteintheUnitedStatesin2022,byageU.S.shareofregisteredvoters2022,byage0.9%77.9%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%76.6%74.4%72.3%69.3%62.7%49.1%18to24years25to24years35to44years45to54years55to64years65to74years75yearsandolder4Description:In2022,77.9percentofpeopleagedbetween65and74yearsoldwereregisteredtovoteintheUnitedStates-thehighestshareofanyagegroup.Incomparison,49.1percentof18to24year-oldswereregisteredtovoteinthatyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;November2022;161,422,000registeredvoters;18yearsandolderSource(s):USCensusBureauCertaintyofadultsonwhotheywillvoteforinthe2024presidentialelectionintheUnitedStatesin2024U.S.certaintyofadultsonwhotheywillvoteforinthepresidentialelection2024ShareofrespondentswhoagreewiththestatementYoualreadyknowwhoyouwillvotefor,andnothingwillchangeyourmindYouhaveagoodideawhoyouwillvotefor,butcouldstillchangeyourmindYouhavenotyetmadeupyourmindwhoyouwillvoteforUnsure0%20%40%60%80%100%0%120%April2024May1,2024May30,2024June202460%29%12%64%26%10%

0%7%

1%66%25%66%25%9%

1%5Description:AsofJune2024,onlytwo-thirdsofadultsintheUnitedStateshadcompletelymadeuptheirmindsregardingwhotheywouldvoteforinthepresidentialelection.RoughlyninepercentofrespondentshadnotyetdecidedwhotheywouldvoteforinNovember,anincreasefromthepreviousmonth.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;June10to12,2024;1,311respondents;18yearsandolder;U.S.registeredvotersSource(s):MaristPoll;NPR;PBSNewsHourPoliticalleaningsamongRepublicanandDemocraticvotersintheUnitedStatesfrom2014to2022U.S.ideologicalleaningsamongRepublicansandDemocrats2022ConservativeRepublicans73%Moderate/LiberalRepublicansModerate/ConservativeDemocratsLiberalDemocrats80%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%77%76%76%75%75%74%72%51%60%40%58%42%57%43%57%43%56%44%53%47%52%48%51%49%49%26%28%27%25%25%24%24%23%20%2014201520162017201820192020202120226Description:Accordingtoa2022poll,morethantwo-thirdsofRepublicansintheUnitedStatesidentifiedasconservative,withonly23percentconsideringthemselvesmoderateorliberalRepublicans.DemocratsintheU.S.weremoredivided,with42percentidentifyingasmoderateorconservativeDemocrats,and58percentasliberalDemocratsin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July15toAugust1,2022;3,106respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):CCGA;IpsosNorthAmericaHowmuchattentionAmericansarepayingtothepresidentialelectioncampaignsintheUnitedStatesinJuly2024,byageU.S.attentiontopresidentialcampaigns2024,byageShareofrespondentsAlot40%SomeOnlyalittle60%Noneatall0%20%80%100%120%18to2930to4436%32%26%6%40%32%21%7%45to6460%24%10%6%65andolder71%21%6%

3%7Description:InasurveyofU.S.adultsconductedinJuly2024,almosttwiceasmanyAmericansovertheageof65werepayingalotofattentiontothe2024presidentialelectionthanthosebetweentheagesof18and29.Amongrespondentsbetween30and44yearsold,21percentreportedhavingpaidonlyminimalattentiontothe2024presidentialcampaigns.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovMotivationlevelstovoteinthe2024presidentialelectioncomparedtopreviouselectionsintheUnitedStatesinNovember2023,byageU.S.motivationtovotein2024presidentialelection2023,byageShareofrespondentsMoremotivatedAboutthesame40%Lessmotivated60%Don'tknow/noanswer80%0%20%100%120%18-3535-4938%44%18%46%46%8%

1%6%50-6450%43%65andolder56%39%5%

1%8Description:AccordingtoaNovember2023survey,motivationlevelsamong18percentofAmericansbetweentheagesof18and34tovoteinthe2024presidentialelectionhaslessenedcomparedtopastelections,comparedtoonlyeightpercentofvotersbetween35and49yearsold.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;October26to30,2023;Atleast1,000;18yearsandolder;registeredvotersSource(s):QuinnipiacUniversityPollShareofadultslikelytovoteinthe2024presidentialelectionintheUnitedStatesasofJune2024,byeducationU.S.likelihoodofvotinginthe2024presidentialelection2024,byeducationNotcollegegraduateCollegegraduate1%88%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%77%11%8%6%5%2%1%1%0%DefinitelynotvotingDefinitelyvotingLikelyvotingChances50-50Likelynotvoting9Description:AccordingtoaJune2024surveyofadultsintheUnitedStates,88percentofthosewithacollegedegreesaidthattheyweredefinitelyvotinginthe2024presidentialelection.Incomparison,only77percentofthosewithoutcollegedegreesweredefinitelyplanningtovoteinNovember.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;June10toJune12,2024;1,311respondents;18yearsandolder;U.S.residentsSource(s):MaristPoll;NPR;PBSNewsHourSupportamongadultstobasethepresidentialelectionwinneronthepopularvoteintheUnitedStatesfrom2020to2023U.S.supportforpopularvotetodeterminepresidentialelections2020-2023ChangethecurrentsystemsothecandidatewhoreceivesthemostvoteswinsKeepcurrentsystemsothecandidatewhowinsElectoralCollegevoteswins70%65%63%65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%60%55%43%37%35%33%202020212022202310Description:Betweentheyears2020and2023,themajorityofAmericanswereinfavorofamendingtheU.S.ConstitutionsothatpresidentialelectionwinnerswouldnolongerbedeterminedbytheElectoralCollegeandinsteadbasedonapopularvote.In2023,onlyaroundone-thirdofAmericanswereinfavorofkeepingthecurrentsystem.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2020to2023;18yearsandolderSource(s):PewResearchCenterNeedforathirdmajorpoliticalpartyintheUnitedStatesfrom2003to2023,bypoliticalideologyU.S.perceivedneedforathirdmajorpoliticalparty2003-2023,bypartyRepublicanDemocrat71%Independent90%80%70%60%50%40%30%78%77%57%76%75%75%74%73%73%72%57%72%57%72%63%71%68%63%63%47%63%58%62%61%49%60%52%60%45%60%51%58%47%58%58%46%57%51%56%40%56%45%55%45%48%45%46%36%40%39%38%20032006200720082010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202311Description:AsofOctober2023,about63percentofDemocratsexpressedtheneedforathirdmajorpartyinU.S.politics,whilethefigurewas58percentforRepublicans-thesewerethehighestfiguresamongrespondentsforbothrespectiveparties.Perhapsunsurprisingly,abouttwo-thirdsofindependentsintheU.S.agreedontheneedforathirdmajorpoliticalparty.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2003to2023;About1,000eachpoll;18yearsandolderSource(s):GallupCHAPTER

02CandidatesLeadingcandidatesforthe2024presidentialelectionintheUnitedStatesasofJuly2024,byageU.S.toppresidentialcandidatesfor2024electionJuly2024,byageShareofrespondentsCornelWest

RobertF.KennedyJr.30%NotsureIwouldnotvote10%OtherJillStein20%DonaldTrump40%KamalaHarris50%0%60%18-2930-4445-6465andolder13Description:AccordingtoaJuly2024survey,youngAmericansweremuchmorelikelytovoteforKamalaHarrisintheNovember2024presidentialelections.Ofthosebetweentheagesof18and29,49percentsaidtheywereplanningonvotingforHarris,comparedto30percentwhosaidtheyplannedonvotingforTrump.Incontrast,Trumpwasmuchmorepopularamongthosebetween45and64yearsold.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovWouldyouconsidervotingforathird-partycandidateinthe2024presidentialelection,ornot?U.S.possibilityofthird-partyvotingforthepresidentialelection2024,bypartyShareofrespondentsNo

Don'tknow/notapplicable60%Yes40%0%20%39%80%100%120%RepublicanDemocratIndependentTotal24%37%39%21%40%51%12%36%43%19%38%14Description:AccordingtoanApril2024survey,over40percentofvotersintheUnitedStateswouldconsidervotingforathird-partycandidateinthe2024presidentialelections.However,24percentofRepublicansand21percentofDemocratsreportedthattheywouldnotconsidervotingthird-party.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;March30toApril2,2024;1,811respondents;18yearsandolder;U.S.adultcitizensSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovAmericanswillingnesstovoteforvariouspresidentialcandidatestypesintheUnitedStatesin2024U.S.willingnesstovoteforvariouspresidentialcandidatetypes2024ShareofrespondentsNo,wouldnotvoteforYes,wouldvotefor20%Noopinion0%40%60%80%100%5%

2%120%AwomanHispanic93%93%92%92%6%

2%6%

2%5%

3%CatholicBlackJewish88%7%

4%GayorlesbianMuslim74%71%23%25%35%36%3%5%Overtheageof70*Anatheist63%60%3%4%7%3%5%Asocialist42%51%66%66%Overtheageof80*Chargedwithafelonycrime*31%29%15/statistics/1366730/groups-americans-willing-vote-usAccordingtoa2024survey,approximatelyone-quarterofvotersintheUnitedStateswouldnotvoteforapresidentwhowasMuslim.Additionally,36percentofrespondentssaidtheywouldnotvoteforapresidentialcandidatewhowasanatheist.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;January2to22,2024;1,011respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):GallupDonaldTrumpfavorabilityintheUnitedStatesinJuly2024,bypoliticalpartyU.S.favorabilityofDonaldTrump2024,bypartyRepublicanDemocratIndependent1%0.9%86%0.8%68%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%46%22%19%17%11%8%6%6%5%3%2%1%1%VeryfavorableSomewhatfavorableSomewhatunfavorableVeryunfavorableDon'tknow16Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinJuly2024,around47percentofAmericanshadaveryunfavorableviewofformerpresidentand2024presidentialhopeful.AsofMarch,DonaldTrumpsecuredthe2024Republicanpresidentialnomination,withover80percentofRepublicansholdingeitherasomewhatorveryfavorableopinionofhim.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolder;U.S.adultsSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovPublicopinionofDonaldTrumppickingJ.D.VanceashispresidentialrunningmateintheUnitedStatesin2024U.S.opiniononTrump'svicepresidentpick2024Shareofrespondents0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%ThebestpossiblepickhecouldhavemadeAgoodpickbutnotthebestpossiblepickNeithergoodnorbad12%15%16%AbadpickbutnottheworstpossiblepickTheworstpossiblepickhecouldhavemadeNotsure11%9%37%17/statistics/1480227/opinion-trumps-vice-president-pick-usThe2024RepublicanNationalConventionstartedonJuly15andwilllastuntilJuly18.Onthefirstday,inadditiontoDonaldTrumpofficiallybecomingtheRepublicanpresidentialnominee,J.D.VancewasofficiallynominatedasTrump's2024runningmate.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July16,2024;3,003respondents;18yearsandolder;U.S.adultsSource(s):YouGovPublicapprovalofBidenwithdrawingfromthepresidentialraceintheUnitedStatesin2024U.S.approvalofBidenleavingpresidentialrace2024Notsure11%Stronglydisapprove9%Somewhatdisapprove6%Stronglyapprove51%Somewhatapprove23%18Description:Followingtheinauguralpresidentialdebateof2024,manyvotersacrossthecountryexpresseddisappointmentinBiden'sperformance,arguingthatheisnolongerfittoserveaspresident.ꢀꢀThefollowingweekssawBidenmaintainhiscommitmenttotherace,reassuringthepublicofhisintenttocontinuehiscampaign,despitefailedattemptstocontrolthedamagedoneatthefirstdebate.ꢀAdditionally,Biden'spollingandcampaignfinancinghadfallentorecordlows,forcingBidenandhis[...]ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolder;AdultcitizensSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovPublicopiniononwhoshouldbethenewDemocraticnomineefollowingJoeBiden'swithdrawalfromthepresidentialraceintheUnitedStatesasofJuly2024U.S.adultsonthenewDemocraticnomineefollowingBiden'swithdrawal2024Notsure27%KamalaHarris38%Someoneelse35%19Description:OnJuly21,Bidenannouncedhewasendinghisbidforreelection,laterenorsingKamalaHarrisasthenewDemocraticnominee.WhilethevicepresidentisthepresumptivenomineeuntiltheDemocraticNationalConventioninAugust,overone-thirdofsurveyedAmericanswouldliketoseesomeoneotherthanHarrisruninBiden'splace.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July22,2024;2,048respondents;18yearsandolder;AdultcitizensSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovFavorabilityofVicePresidentKamalaHarrisintheUnitedStatesasofJuly2024U.S.favorabilityofVicePresidentKamalaHarris2024ShareofrespondentsJuly22,202420%June17,202425%0%5%10%15%30%35%40%45%50%23%VeryfavorableSomewhatfavorableSomewhatunfavorableVeryunfavorable16%20%22%11%11%40%44%7%7%Don’tknow20Description:Priortoannouncingherbidforthe2024DemocraticPartypresidentialnominee,Harriswasonlyseenveryfavorablyby16percentofsurveyedAmericans.However,thedaysfollowinghercampaignannouncementsawaslightuptickinpopularity,withroughly23percentviewingherveryfavorably.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolder;U.S.adultcitizensSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovFavorabilityofRobertF.KennedyJr.intheUnitedStatesasofMay2024,byageU.S.favorabilityofRobertF.KennedyJr.2024,byageVeryfavorableSomewhatfavorableSomewhatunfavorableVeryunfavorableDon'tknow0.4%0.35%0.3%0.25%0.2%0.15%0.1%0.05%0%18-2930-4445-6465andolder21Description:AccordingtoaMay2024survey,althoughgenerallymorepopularamongyoungervoters,adultsintheUnitedStateswerefairlyconsistentonwhetherornottheyconsideredRobertF.KennedyJr.favorableregardlessoftheirage,withsevenpercentofvotersaged18to44consideringthe2024presidentialcandidateveryfavorable.Additionally,28percentofU.S.votersfoundKennedyJr.somewhatfavorable.AlthoughoriginallyfilinghispresidentialbidwiththeDemocraticPartyinApril2023,[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;May12to14,2024;1,830respondents;18yearsandolder;registeredvotersSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovCHAPTER

03KeyIssuesMostimportantissueforvotersintheUnitedStatesasofJuly2024U.S.votersmostimportantissue2024Shareofrespondents0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Inflation/pricesImmigration25%11%Healthcare10%10%Jobs&theeconomyAbortion8%7%6%5%4%4%3%2%Climate&theenvironmentCivilrightsNationalsecurityTaxes&governmentspendingGunsCivillibertiesEducation23Description:AsurveyconductedinJuly2024foundthatthemostimportantissuefor25percentofAmericanswasinflationandprices.Afurthertenpercentofrespondentsweremostconcernedaboutjobsandtheeconomy.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolder;U.S.adultsSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovDecidingissuesamongAmericansregardingwhotovoteforinthe2024presidentialelectionintheUnitedStatesasofNovember2023,bypartyideologyU.S.decidingissuesforpresidentialvote2023,bypartyRepublicanDemocratIndependentTotal0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%EconomyPreservingdemocracyAbortionGunviolenceImmigration

RacialInequalityHealthcareDon'tknow/not

Climatechangeapplicable24Description:Whenconsideringwhotovoteforinthe2024U.S.PresidentialElection,theeconomywasthemostimportantissueformorethanhalfofRepublicans,comparedtoonly14percentofDemocrats.PreservingdemocracywasthemostimportantissueamongDemocratswhendecidingwhotovotefor.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2023;Atleast1,000;18yearsandolder;registeredvotersSource(s):QuinnipiacUniversityPollPublicopinionontheimportanceoftaxesandgovernmentspendingintheUnitedStatesin2024,bypartyidentificationU.S.importanceoftaxesandgovernmentspending2024,bypartyShareofrespondentsIndependents30%Republicans40%Democrats50%0%10%20%60%70%80%90%63%VeryimportantSomewhatimportantNotveryimportant82%53%30%17%34%5%1%1%12%Unimportant

0%1%25Description:Asurveyconductedin2024foundthatrespondentsfromboththeDemocraticandRepublicanPartiesfoundtaxesandgovernmentspendingveryorsomewhatimportant.However,therewerefarmoreRepublicanswhoconsideredtaxesandgovernmentspendingtobeveryimportant,comparedtojustoverhalfofDemocrats.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovLeadinginflationconcernsofconsumersintheUnitedStatesbetween2022and2023U.S.consumersleadinginflationaryconcerns2022-2023202220230.8%72%69%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%53%52%50%44%44%42%42%39%SupplychainissuesCorporategreedRussianinvasionofUkraineLaborshortages/peoplechoosingnottoworkGovernmentspending26Description:In2023,Americanconsumersremainconcernedaboutinflation.Supplychainissueswastheleadingconcernforconsumersinboth2022and2023.Consumersweremoreconcernedaboutcorporategreedandgovernmentspendingin2023thanin2022.In202239percentofrespondentswereconcernedaboutgovernmentspendingcomparedwith42percentin2023.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2022to2023;1,804respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):HorizonMediaAmericanssupportforcancellingtenthousanddollarsoffederalstudentloandebtintheUnitedStatesin2022,bypartyidentificationU.S.adultssupportforcancelling10,000USDofstudentloandebt2022,bypartyDemocratsIndependentsRepublicans0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0%58%58%31%28%22%16%14%14%14%11%9%8%6%6%6%StronglysupportSomewhatsupportSomewhatopposeStronglyopposeNotsure27Description:AsurveyinAugust2022,foundthat58percentofAmericanswhoidentifyasDemocratswerestronglyinfavoroftheBidenadministrationsdecisiontocancelupto10,000U.S.dollarsinfederalstudentloandebtforanyindividualwithstudentloandebtwhoearnslessthan125,000U.S.dollarsayear.Comparatively,58percentofthoseidentifyingwiththeRepublicanpartywerestronglyopposedtothemeasure.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;August28to30,2022;1,500respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovShareofindividualswhosaidselectproblemswerethebiggestfacingthehealthcaresystemintheUnitedStatesin2023LeadingproblemsintheU.S.healthcaresystem2023Percentageofrespondents0%10%20%30%40%50%60%CostofaccessingtreatmentNotenoughstaff54%34%Accesstotreatment/longwaitingtimesBureaucracy27%21%19%PoorqualitytreatmentAgeingpopulation16%16%LackofinvestmentinpreventativehealthLackofchoice11%Lackofinvestment8%Poorsafety6%5%Lowstandardsofcleanliness28Description:A2023surveyfoundthatoverhalfofU.S.individualsindicatedthecostofaccessingtreatmentwasthebiggestproblemfacingthenationalhealthcaresystem.Thisismuchhigherthantheglobalaverageof31percentandisinlinewiththehighcostofhealthcareintheU.S.comparedtootherhigh-incomecountries.Bureaucracyalongwithalackofstaffwerealsoconsideredtobepressingissues.Thisstatisticrevealstheshareofindividualswhosaidselectproblemswerethebiggestfacingthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21toAugust4,2023;1,000respondents;16-74yearsSource(s):IpsosDistributionofsupportforpolicythatallowshealthcareprovidersacrosstheU.S.togivegender-affirmingcaretoLGBTQ+youthasofJune2023Supportforpolicyprovidinggender-affirmingcaretoLGBTQ+intheU.S.in202330%0.3%0.25%0.2%0.15%0.1%0.05%0%27%24%16%4%StronglysupportSomewhatsupportSomewhatopposeStronglyopposeSkipped29Description:AccordingtoasurveycarriedoutintheU.S.in2023,57percentofrespondentsoverallsupportedapolicythatallowshealthcareproviderstogivegender-affirmingcaretoLGBTQ+youth.ThisstatisticillustratesthelevelofsupportforpolicyintheU.S.thatallowshealthcareproviderstogivegender-affirmingcareforLGBTQ+youthasofJune2023.ReadmoreNote(s):June2to11,2023;2,073respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):Ipsos;NationalAllianceonMentalIllnessShareofadultsintheUnitedStateswhosupportabortionin2024,bypoliticalpartyandleveloflegalizationU.S.supportforabortion2024,bypartyandleveloflegalizationAbortionshouldalwaysbelegal.Thereshouldbenorestrictionsonabortion.Abortionshouldbelegal,butwithsomerestrictions(suchasforminorsorlate-termabortions).Abortionshouldonlybelegalinspecialcircumstances,suchaswhenthelifeofthemotherisindanger.Abortionshouldbeillegal.Itshouldneverbeallowed.1.2%1%4%11%16%50%18%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0%24%35%35%42%28%30%6%RepublicanIndependentDemocrat30Description:ItisperhapsnosurprisethatadultsintheUnitedStateswhoidentifyasDemocratsarefarmorelikelytofavorthelegalizationofabortion,with42percentofDemocratssurveyedin2024supportingthelegalizationofabortionunderanycircumstance.ThispositionwassupportedbyonlysixpercentofRepublicans.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;April28to30,2024;1,745respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):YouGovOnthewhole,doyouthinkimmigrationisagoodthingorabadthingforthiscountrytoday?U.S.publicperceptionofimmigrationasagoodorbadthing2005-2023Goodthing72%Badthing73%90%77%80%76%75%75%72%71%70%68%67%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%66%64%63%61%34%60%33%59%37%58%36%57%36%33%30%29%28%27%25%25%24%24%23%21%19%19%19%200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202331Description:In2023,68percentofsurveyrespondentsstatedtheythinkimmigrationisagoodthingfortheUnitedStates,whichisadecreasefromthepreviousyearwhen70percentconsideredimmigrationagoodthing.Afurther33percentofrespondentssaidthattheyfeltimmigrationwasabadthingforthecountry.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2005to2023;about1,000eachsurvey;18yearsandolderSource(s):GallupIngeneral,doyoufeelthatthelawscoveringthesaleoffirearmsshouldbemademorestrict,lessstrict,orkeptastheyarenow?U.S.publicopiniononthestrictnessoflawscoveringfirearmssale1990-2023MorestrictLessstrictKeptasnow90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1990

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202232Description:Since1990,theshareofAmericanadultswhofeltthatgunlawsconcerningthesaleoffirearmsshouldbemademorestricthasfluctuated.Thesurveywasconductedonaregularbasisfrom1990to2023.In2023,about56percentoftheAmericansfeltthatthelawscoveringfirearmssaleshouldbemorestrict.However,only12percentthoughtthatgunlawsshouldbemadelessstrict.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;1990to2023;about1,000eachpoll;18yearsandolderSource(s):GallupImportanceofclimatechangeandtheenvironmentintheUnitedStatesin2024,bypoliticalpartyU.S.climatechangeimportance2024,bypartyRepublicanDemocratIndependent0.8%71%0.7%0.6%0.5%42%0.4%0.3%0.2%34%31%25%24%22%16%16%13%0.1%0%4%1%VeryimportantSomewhatimportantNotveryimportantUnimportant33Description:InasurveyofU.S.adultsinJuly2024,around71percentofDemocraticrespondentsintheU.S.consideredclimatechangeandtheenvironmentveryimportant,withanadditional24percentconsideringitsomewhatimportant.Instarkcontrast,only13percentofRepublicanrespondentsconsideredclimatechangeandtheenvironmenttobeveryimportant.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July21to23,2024;1,605respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):TheEconomist;YouGovCHAPTER

04SwingStatePollingSwingstateelectionpollingofKamalaHarrisvs.DonaldTrumpintheUnitedStatesasofJuly2024U.S.2024generalelectionswingstatepollingHarrisvs.Trump2024ShareofregisteredvotersTrump

Harris25%0%5%10%15%20%30%35%40%45%44%50%49%55%ArizonaGeorgia48%46%48%PennsylvaniaMichigan46%46%45%47%47%Wisconsin35Description:AccordingtothesurveyofswingstatestakenjustafterHarrisannouncedhercampaign,Arizona,Georgia,Michigan,andPennsylvaniashowedpresumptiveDemocraticnomineeKamalaHarristrailingformerPresidentDonaldTrumpnearlyallstatessurveyed.Inahypotheticalmatchup,47percentofvotersinWisconsinwouldvoteforTrumpandHarris,makingitthemostcontestedstateasoflate.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;July22to23,2024;Atleast800;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersinArizona,Georgia,Michigan,Nevada,NorthCarolina,Pennsylvania,andWisconsin.Source(s):RealClearPolitics;VarioussourcesGeneralelectionpollingof2024presidentialcandidatesinGeorgiaintheUnitedStatesasofJuly2024U.S.Georgiapresidentialelectionpolling2024Shareofregisteredvoters20%

25%0%5%10%15%30%35%40%45%50%DonaldTrump(R)KamalaHarris(D)RobertF.KennedyJr.(I)CornelWest(I)46%43.3%4%1%JillStein(G)0.5%36Description:InJuly2024,variouspollsconductedinswingstatesfollowingJoeBiden'swithdrawalfromhispresidentialcampaignshowedformerPresidentDonaldTrumphavinganadvantageinthemajorityofswingstates.TrumpwasaheadofꢀHarrisbyafairmargininGeorgia,securingsupportfrom46percentofre