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IntelligentInvestment
UKMidYear
MarketOutlook
2024
REPORTREALESTATE
CBRERESEARCH
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
Contents
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
EconomicOutlook
InvestmentSustainabilityOffice
Industrial&LogisticsRetail
Residential
(Residential,Affordable
Housing,Purpose-Built
StudentAccommodation)
08OPRE
(Hotels,Leisure&Pubs,Healthcare,SeniorLiving,Roadside&Automotive,SelfStorage)
09DataCentres
10LifeSciences
2CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
Introduction
2024startedwitharenewedsenseofoptimism.Whilethere
wasevidenceofimprovedpositivitywithapick-upinretailsales,
consumerconfidence,andareturntoeconomicgrowth,therehavebeensomelessencouragingsigns.Notably,thepathoftheinflationrateinitiallyfellshortofexpectationsasitallbutlevelledoff,and
investmentvolumeshitarecordlow.Still,aswefindourselvesinthemiddleoftheyear,therearenowstrongersignsofaturningpoint.NowthatinflationhasreachedtheBankofEngland’s2%target,
thelikelihoodofaninterestratecutinAugustishigh.Asthecostoflivingpressuresmoderate,consumerdemandwillrebound.
Overall,theimprovingeconomicbackdropispositiveforbothoccupiersandinvestors,whichshouldstimulateactivity.
And,wearenolongerlivingunderthespectreofanimpending
election.TheLabourpartywonalandslidevictory,securing411
seats.Thisgivesthepartyaclearmandateandcapabilitytodrive
itspolicypriorities.Ouranalysisofconsumerconfidenceshows
itincreasesintheperiodfollowinganelectioninover70%ofthe
time.Weexpectthistrendwillbemirrorednowandsothenew
Governmentwillboostsentimentandprovideafilliptotheeconomy.
Fromarealestateperspective,weparticularlywelcomethe
commitmentmadebytheLabourpartytoreformplanning.Thishasbeenanunderlyingchallengeinourindustryforsometime,withthetimetakentogetresidentialplanningpermissiondoublingoverthelast10years.
Thepartyhasacknowledgedthatradicalsolutionsareneeded
toboosthousingdeliverytothedesired1.5millionhomesoverthetermofthisParliament.ExecutingaNewTownsprogrammewill
bechallenging.ItwillrequiresubstantialGovernmentintervention(suchasredefiningtheGreenBelttogreybelt)andinvestment,
butitisavitalinitiative.Theproposaltomakethemortgage
guaranteeschemepermanentwillalsohelpsupportsomefirst-timebuyerswhootherwisemightnothavebeenabletoraiseadeposit.
Otherinitiativesincludeplanstodriveinfrastructureprojects,
includingallocating£1.8billiontoupgradeportsandbuildsupplychainsintheUK,andareviewofbusinessrates
Collectively,webelievethesepoliciescouldbeadvantageousforbothoccupiersandinvestorsandshouldstimulateactivity.
3
CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
EconomicOutlook
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
5CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
ECONOMICOUTLOOK
Sofarthisyear
—Inflationcontinueditssteadydescent,falling
from4%attheendof2023totheBankof
England’s2%targetrateinMay.Thiswashelpedbyfallsinfoodpriceinflationandfallsinenergyprices.Still,coreinflationhasremainedsticky,
fallingfrom5.1%to3.5%overthesameperiod,inlargepushedbyservicesinflationnotfallingasmuch;movingfrom6.5%to5.7%.
—TheBankofEnglandbaseratehasremainedunchanged
at5.25%sinceMarch2023.However,marketsentimenthasshiftedtowardsratecuts,withtwomembersvotingtocutratesatthemostrecentmeetinginJune.
—Thelabourmarketremainedsolidbuthasrecently
weakenedslightly.Thelatestdatashowunemploymenthasrisento4.4%,coupledwithafallinnotifiedjobvacancies.
Inaddition,thenumberofpeoplewhoareeconomically
inactiveduetolong-termillnesshasincreasedby750,000
sincetheendof2019.Thishascontributedtotheoverall
labourforcebeingvirtuallystaticsincethen.Thishas
potentiallyexacerbatedupwardspressureonwages.The
indexationoftheNationalMinimumWagehascontributed
tonominalwageinflationremainingabovelong-termaveragelevelsat5.6%(includingbonuses)andthefeedthroughof
thesecostshascontributedtothestickinessofcoreinflation.
—GDPincreasedby0.6%inthefirstquarter.ThiswasawelcomerespitefromthefallsinactivityQ3andQ42023.Thestrengthoftheservicesectorwasakeycomponentofgrowth.
Consumerdemandalsopickedupwithretailsalesbouncingbackafterapoorendto2023.
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
6CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
ECONOMICOUTLOOK
What’sstilltocome
—AlthoughinflationisnowattheBank’s2%target,weexpectcontinued
domesticinflationarypressuresfortheremainderoftheyear.Thiswillleadtosomevolatilityintheheadlinefigure.Wepredictaslowdeclineinwageincreasesandservicesinflation.Somejobsheddingwillputdownward
pressureonwageinflationandmoveitclosertolong-termaveragelevels.
—TheBankofEnglandwillmaintainacautiousapproachtointerest
ratecutting.Anymovementwillbedatadependent,withMPCmemberskeentoseeinflationandwagegrowthsolidlyanchoredatlowerlevels.
—Overall,therewillbemodestgrowthofaround1%across2024asawhole.Still,momentumwillbuildthroughtheyear,andsoannualGDPatQ4willbehigherat2.0%.
—Themaindriverwillberealincomegrowth.Thiswillreflecttheacutedropininflationandthemoregradualslowdowninnominalwage
growth.Interestratecutswillalsoprovideaboosttoconsumerandbusinessdemand.
—Riskstotheoutlookremaindisruptorstothetrajectoryofinflation.
Domesticallystickywageinflationand,globally,theMiddleEastconflict’sproximitytoenergymarkets,couldbothcausedelaysininterestrate
cuttinganddampenthegrowthoutlook.Thefiscalpositionisunlikelytochangesignificantlyfollowingtheelection.
Investment
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
8CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
INVESTMENT
SofarthisyearFigure1:Investmentreturnsandinvestmentactivity,2021–2024
—Investmentreturnsforrealestatehaveimproved.Capitalvaluesintheindustrialandretailsectorshavestoppedfalling,andpositivetotalreturnsreappearedat
anallpropertylevel.Yetdivergenceinperformanceacrosssectorsisstillevident.OfficecapitalvaluescontinuedtofallinH12024,whilerentalgrowthwasstrongerfortheindustrialandmultifamilysectorsthaninretailandoffices.
—Transactionactivityhasbeenslowertoimprove,withinvestmentvolumesbelowtheiraveragelevelfromthelastdecade.Whiletherearesignsthatinvestor
interestisnowreturningtothemarket,thishasnotyetcrystalisedintoanotableincreaseindeals.However,activityismoreresilientinthelivingsectorsandtherehasbeenmoreliquidityforsmallerlotsizes.
—TherehasbeenM&AactivityintheUKlistedrealestatemarket,withtwomergersconcludedinH1.ThelistedsectorsawlargeandpersistentdiscountstoNetAssetValuethrough2023andinto2024.Thishasencouragedcompaniestopropose
transactionsandothercorporateactionsthatcancapitaliseondivergencebetweenthestockmarketratingofthesectorandthevalueofthe
underlyingassets.
—Realestatedebtmarketsremainedliquidand,whilehigherinterestrateshaveweighedonmarketactivity,thecostofdebthaseasedoverthelastsixmonths.Loanoriginationscontinuetobedominatedbyrefinancingratherthannew
investments,butthereiscompetitionamonglenderstorefinancehighquality
assets.Distressedsalestoresolvemoredifficultsituationsarestillrelativelyuncommon.
25
20
Volumetraded£bn
15
10
5
0
21Q1
21Q2
21Q3
21Q4
22Q1
22Q2
22Q3
22Q4
23Q1
23Q2
23Q3
23Q4
24Q1
24Q2
InvestmentVolume(LHS)CBREUKMonthlyIndex(RHS)
30
20
Yearonyeartotalreturn(%)
10
0
-10
-20
Source:CBREResearch
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
9CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
INVESTMENT
What’sstilltocome
—Weexpecttoseetheimprovementininvestmentreturnscontinuethroughthesecondhalfoftheyear,withcapitalvaluesbottomingoutacrossall
sectorsandincomereturncontinuingtodrivepositivetotalreturns.
—Ourresearchhasshownthat
investmentatthetroughofthemarket
shouldbebeneficialforthoseinvestorswithcapacitytoact.
However,investmentintotherightlocationsandassetswillbekey,
asstructuralchangescontinuetoaffectoccupierandinvestordemandindifferentsectors.
—Wealsoexpecttransactionactivitytograduallyincrease.Despite
uncertaintyaroundpricing,animprovingoutlookforinterestrates,
coupledwith18monthsofrelativeinactivity,willleadsomeinvestorstodeploycapitaloncemoreastheylooktorefreshandrepositiontheirrealestateportfolios.
—Thisshould,inturn,facilitatesaleofpropertiesbyinvestorsthatneedtomeetredemptionordebtobligations.Asnotedinour
RealEstateMarket
Outlook2024
,furtherdisposalsofrealestatebyUKdefinedbenefit
pensionfundsarelikelyasmoreschemestransitiontowardsbuyouts.
—Sentimentisimprovingindebtmarketsandbothbankandnon-bank
lendersarelookingtoincreaseoriginationsinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Industrial&logistics,datacentres,andthelivingsectorsarecurrently
mostfavoured,butweexpectliquidityacrossallsectorsforfinancinghigh-quality,well-locatedassetswithstrongsponsors.
—Nonetheless,newlendingwillneedtobebalancedwiththemanagementofrisksinexistingloanbooksasthemarketrecovers.
Sustainability
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
11CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
SUSTAINABILITY
Sofarthisyear
—TheFinancialConductAuthority(FCA)
introducedtheanti-greenwashingrulefor
allregisteredfinancialfirmsintheUK.It
mandatesthatanysustainability-relatedclaimaboutfinancialproductsorservicesmustbecorrect,clearlycommunicated,andcapableofbeingsupportedbyevidence.Assetmanagersshouldensuremarketingmaterials,reportingtoclientsandpublicdisclosuresareconsistentwiththeanti-greenwashingrule.Breakingthisrulecouldresultinreputationaldamageand
potentialenforcementactionfromtheFCA.
—SinceFebruary,allnewdevelopmentsinEnglandover25m²mustshowtheywillachieve10%biodiversitynetgaintobe
grantedplanningpermission.Despitesome
concernsthe
privatemarketwouldnotbeabletomeet
demandfor
biodiversityunits,CBREisnotawareofthispreventingor
delayingdevelopmentssofar.However,thelimitedavailabilityofbiodiversityunitsforlesscommonhabitats,suchasriversandstreams,hasledsomedeveloperstoadjusttheirplans.
Todate,wehavenotedadeveloperpreferenceforachievingbiodiversitygainonsiteratherthanbuyingoffsiteunitsfromthirdparties.
—Developmentsandnewrenewableenergysourceshavebeendelayedduetolimitedgridcapacity.Duetoabacklogof
connectionandgridreinforcementrequests,insomepartsofthecountrynewcleanenergysourcescannotcomeonlineorbuildingheatingelectrificationcannotbesupported,
delayingprogresstowardsnetzero.Illustratingthesizeof
thebacklog,thetotalconnectionsqueueis
forecasttoreach
800GW
bytheendof2024,overfourtimestheUK’s
anticipatedelectricitydemandin2050.
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
12CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
SUSTAINABILITY
What’sstilltocome
—Labour’smanifestostronglyhintedatincreasingminimumenergy
efficiencystandardsby2030intheprivaterentedsector.Duetothe
closedeadline,itisreasonabletoexpectthisregulationtobeintroducedin2024.IthasnotbeenrevealedwhichEPCgradewouldbecomethe
minimumrequirement,butanyincreasewillrequireinvestmentfrommanylandlordstopreventtheirpropertiesbecomingillegaltolet.Starting
toimproveenergyefficiencyin2024willhelplandlordsavoidsupplybottlenecksasthedeadlinegetscloser.
—LabourpledgedtocreateGreatBritishEnergywiththeaimof
decarbonisingthepowergrid.GreatBritishEnergywillbecapitalisedwith£8.3bntoinvestinrenewableenergyinfrastructure.Evenifspendingis
weightedtowardstheendoftheParliament,thiscouldstillmeanhundredsofmillionsofpublicmoneyinvestedintogreenenergyinfrastructurein
2024.Thisrepresentsanopportunityforinvestorstoco-investin
infrastructureprojectsandreduceriskbysharingitwiththepublicsector.
—TheUKSustainableDisclosureRequirement(SDR)willbecomemandatoryforFCA-regulatedfirmsinDecember2024.Itaimstofacilitateinvestmentintosustainableproductsbyintroducingsustainability-relatedlabels
anddisclosures.DespitesimilaritiestotheEuropeanSustainableFinanceDisclosureRegulation,theSDRrepresentsanewdisclosuremechanismwhichassetmanagerswillhavetoprepareforiftheyaretoattractcapitaltargetingsustainableinvestmentsintheUK.Firmscanstarttoapply
sustainabilitylabelstoproductsvoluntarilyfromJuly2024,takingthisapproachcouldprovideafirstmover’sadvantage.
Office
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
14CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
OFFICE
SofarthisyearFigure2:CentralLondonofficeinvestmenttransactionsbysizebandandaveragelot
—Demandforthebestqualityofficespacewithinwelllocated,high
specification,andsustainablebuildingsremainsstrong.Themajority
oflargerofficelettingsoverthepastyearhavebeeninnewdevelopments.Duringthesameperiod,morethanathirdofthetotalCentralLondon
officetake-uptransactedatrentshigherthantheprevailingsubmarketprimelevel.
—Thesupplyofsecondhandspaceisaboveitshistoricaverage,andas
occupierdemandsshifttowardshigherqualitystock,somepoor-quality
unitshavebeenavailableforanextendedperiod.Thesetypesofbuildingsareincreasinglybeingpurchasedwiththeintentionofchangeofusetype.InCentralLondonalone,thishasamountedtomorethan£400mofofficeseitherpurchasedorplacedunderofferduringtheyearsofar.
—Officeinvestmenttransactionvolumeshaveremainedrelativelyweakataroundathirdofthe10-yeartrend.Mutedvolumesreflectuncertaintiesaroundassetpricing,debtcosts,andthepotentialforfurtherinterestratemovements.ThelatestdatashowsthatequitytargetingLondonis
around£19.18bn,41%belowtrendlevels.
—Drivinglowerinvestmentturnoverhasbeentherelativeilliquidityoflargerlotsizes,leadingtoafallinaveragedealsize.WithintheCentralLondon
market,theaveragedealsizehasfallenfrom£88min2018to£28m
now.Justtwodealslargerthan£100mtransactedacrosstheUKduringQ12024,comparedtothefive-yearaverageofnineperquarter.
—Primeyieldsremainunchangedsofarthisyearin6ofthe11UKoffice
marketswetrack.However,intheothermarkets,yieldscontinuedtomoveoutwardsbybetween25-50bps.
350
300
250
Numberoftransactions
200
150
100
50
0
£88m
£49m
£28m
20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024H1
<£25m£25-50m£50-100m£100m+Averagedealsize(RHS)
100
90
80
70
60
£m
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source:CBRE
15CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
OFFICE
What’sstilltocome
—Thereis9.1msqftofofficedevelopmentcurrentlyunderconstructionintheUKwhichcouldcompletethisyear.Ifthesecometofruition,
thisyear'scompletionswillexceedaveragelevels.TheCentralLondonmarketaccountsfornearly60%ofthisupcomingdevelopmentspace.
Despitethehighlevelofcompletionsexpected,increasedoccupierdemandforhigh-qualityspacewillcausethisspacetobeabsorbedquickly.Asa
result,40%oftheUKunderconstructionpipelineto2028isalreadypre-letorunderoffer.Theproportionofpre-letspacevariesbymarketandis
ashighas63%intheCityofLondonand42%inLeeds.
—Wedonotexpectconstructionstartstomaintaintheirrecent
paceduetohighdebtandconstructioncosts,andanincreasinglychallengingplanningenvironment.Therefore,weexpectlower
levelsofdevelopmentcompletionsafter2025.Inthelongerterm,weanticipateahigherpropensityforrefurbishmentsandmaterialre-useinconstructiontosustainablyregenerateobsoletestock.Wealsoexpectmorebuyerstotransactwithanintentionto
repurposeoffices.
—Broadersentimentandinvestmentactivitywillbeboostedbyacut
ininterestratesandstabilisingyields.Followingrepricing,themarketcouldseeanincreaseincoreinvestmentpurchasesasreturnsbecomemoreattractive.
—ThekeygeographieswithcapitaltargetingLondonareEurope(34%)
andEastAsia(25%).AllAsiancapitalaccountedfor40%ofthetotalequitytargetingthemarket.
—Inthemarketsweforecast,weexpectprimeyieldstoremainrelativelyflatfortheremainderofthisyear.
Figure3:UKofficedevelopments,underconstructionpipeline
Millionsqft
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
CompletedU/CLet/UnderOfferU/CAvailable10-yearaveragecompletions
Source:CBRE
Industrial
&Logistics
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
17CBRERESEARCH©2024CBRE,INC.
INDUSTRIAL&LOGISTICS
Sofarthisyear
—Take-upstartedslowlythisyearbutcaughtupinQ2.Thissaid,thereisstillsomecautioninthemarket,withdealstakinglongertocomplete.Demandcontinuestobeledbythird-partylogisticsoperators,
contributingathirdofalltake-up.Manufacturingoccupiersalsoremainactive,accountingforoveraquarteroftake-upinthefirsthalfof2024.
—ThelatestCBREvacancyratenowstandsat5.75%.Inpriorquarters
thevacancyrisewaslargelydrivenbynewspeculativecompletions,
butinQ2theincreasewasledbyareturnofsecondhandunitstomarket.Thedevelopmentpipelinecontinuestomoderate.Around19msqftofnewspaceiscurrentlyunderconstruction,45%belowthesametimelastyear.
—Primerentshavegrowninmostregionsinthefirsthalfoftheyear,
excludingInnerSouthEast,SouthWestandScotland.However,therateofgrowthhasslowed.Inthe12monthstoQ22024,theUK’sprimerent*grewby7.8%,belowtheprioryear(16.3%).
—InQ12024investmentvolumesincreasedyear-on-year,howeverthis
wasfromalowbase.Volumesremainbelowthepreceding10-year
average,andinvestorscontinuetobeselectiveintheirtargetacquisitions.Withlimitedmovementseeninthedebtmarket,theprimebigboxlogisticyieldhasremainedstableat5.25%.
*Weightedbycapitalvalue
Figure5:UKI&LVacancyRate
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42023Q12024Q22024
Figure6:UKI&LUnderConstructionPipeline
Millionsqft
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42023Q12024Q22024
SpeculativeBuilt-to-Suit
Source:CBRE
IntelligentInvestmentMidYearMarketOutlook2024|UK
18CBRERESEAR
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