国际能源署IEA：2024降低资本成本释放新兴和发展中经济体清洁能源投资的战略报告（英文版）

Reducingthe

CostofCapital

Strategiestounlockclean

energyinvestmentinemerginganddevelopingeconomies

WorldEnergyInvestmentSpecialReport

INTERNATIONALENERGY

AGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gas

andcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,

energyeficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementand

muchmore.Throughitswork,theIEA

advocatespolicies

thatwillenhancethereliability,afordability

andsustainabilityofenergyinits

31membercountries,

13associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandany

mapincludedhereinare

withoutprejudicetothe

statusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothe

delimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundaries

andtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIreland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

NetherlandsNewZealand

NorwayPoland

Portugal

SlovakRepublicSpain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropean

CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements3

ThisreportwaspreparedbytheEnergyInvestmentUnitintheOfficeoftheChiefEnergy

Economist(OCEE)DivisionoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO).ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyTimGould,ChiefEnergyEconomist,andCeciliaTam,ActingHeadoftheEnergyInvestmentUnit.LucilaArboleyaSarazolasupportedthedesignofthereportandledco-ordinationofthereporttogetherwithSiddharthSingh.Chapter1wasco-ledbyLucilaArboleyaSarazolaandCeciliaTam.Chapter2wasco-ledbySiddharthSinghandLucilaArboleyaSarazola.

OtherprincipalauthorsofthereportwereTanguydeBienassis(ledbuildingsandenduse);MusaErdogan(co-ledstorageandChapter1);DavidFischer(co-ledstorage);EmmaGordon(ledhydro);AlanaRawlinsBilbao(ledelectricitygrids);andPeterZeniewski(ledadvancedfuels).EmileBelin-BourgogneandRyszardPospiechprovidedsupportacrosssectors.

EleniTsoukalaprovidedessentialsupportandErinCrumwasthecopyeditor.

ThereportalsobenefitedfrominputprovidedbynumerousIEAcolleagues,inparticularHeymiBahar,TrevorCriswell,ChristopheMcGlade,MichaelWaldronandBrentWanner.

AdditionalthanksgototheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO)Divisionfortheirhelpproducingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlytoJethroMullen,ActingHeadofCDO,andCurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,LucileWall,ThereseWalsh,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,OliverJoyandPoeliBojorquez.

SpecialthanksalsogototheIEAFinanceIndustryAdvisoryBoardfortheirvaluableinputs.

Peerreviewers

Manyseniorgovernmentofficialsandinternationalexpertsprovidedinputandreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theircommentsandsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:

CharlieDonovan

ImpaxAssetManagement

LucyHeintz

Actis

SeanKidney

ClimateBondsInitiative

BradHandler

PayneInstitute

HaraldHirschhofer

TheCurrencyExchangeFund(‘TCX’)

GautamJain

ColumbiaUniversity

AriolaMbistrova

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

SoniaMedina

Children’sInvestmentFundFoundation

WaleShonibare

AfricanDevelopmentBank

BjarneSteffen

ETHZurich

KelvinWong

DBSBank

JoseA.Omaechevarria

Iberdrola

4InternationalEnergyAgency|ReducingtheCostofCapital

ThispublicationhasbeenproducedwiththefinancialassistanceoftheEuropeanUnionaspartofitsfundingoftheCleanEnergyTransitionsinEmergingEconomiesprogramme(CETEE-2)withintheCleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme,theIEA’sflagshipinitiativetotransformtheworld’senergysystemtoachieveasecureandsustainablefutureforall.

TheworkreflectstheviewsoftheInternationalEnergyAgencySecretariatbutdoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofindividualIEAmembercountriesorofanyparticularfunder,supporterorcollaborator.NoneoftheIEAoranyfunder,supporterorcollaboratorthatcontributedtothisworkmakesanyrepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,inrespectofthework’scontents(includingitscompletenessoraccuracy)andshallnotberesponsibleforanyuseof,orrelianceon,thework.

TableofContents

TableofContents5

Acknowledgements 3

Executivesummary 7

1

Unlockingcleanenergyinvestment11

1.1Thecleanenergyinvestmentgap 12

1.1.1Today’sinvestmenttrendsandfutureneeds 13

1.1.2Investmentprioritiesto2035 15

1.1.3Sourcesoffinance 18

1.2Thecostofcapital 19

1.2.1Whatisthecostofcapital? 19

1.2.2WhydoesthecostofcapitalmatterforEMDEenergytransitions? 25

1.3Bringingdownthecostofcapital 27

2

Identifyingrisksthatinfluencethecostofcapital33

2.1Introduction 34

2.2Utility-scalesolarPVandwind 35

2.2.1Utility-scalesolarandwindingrowingmarkets 39

2.2.2Utility-scalesolarandwindinmaturingmarkets 41

2.3Grids 46

2.3.1Publiclyledgridfinancing 48

2.3.2Privatelyledgridfinancing 50

2.4Energyefficiencyinbuildings 54

2.5Electricmobility 58

2.6Advancedbiofuels 62

2.7Utility-scalehydro 65

2.8Batterystorage 69

Annexes

AnnexA.Definitions 75

AnnexB.References 85

Executivesummary

ExecutiveSummary7

Cleanenergyinvestmentinmostemerginganddevelopingeconomieshas

yettotakeoff:Ahighcostofcapitalisamajorreasonwhy

Howemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(EMDE

1

)meettheirrisingenergyneedsisapivotalquestionbothfortheircitizensandfortheworld.Cost-competitivecleanenergytechnologiesopenthepossibilitytochartanew,lower-emissionspathwaytogrowthandprosperity,butcapitalflowstocleanenergyprojectsinmanyEMDEremainworryinglylow.Globalcleanenergyinvestmenthasrisenby40%since2020,reachingUSD1.8trillionin2023,butalmostalltherecentgrowthhasbeeninadvancedeconomiesandinChina.EMDEaccountforaround15%ofthetotal,despiteaccountingforaboutathirdofglobalgrossdomesticproductandtwo-thirdsoftheworld’spopulation.IndiaandBrazilarebyadistancethelargestEMDEcleanenergymarkets.

Allpathwaystosuccessfulglobalenergytransitionsdependonexpandingcapitalflowstocleanenergyinfast-growingEMDE.Withgrowinginternationalattentiontothisissue,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)wastaskedbytheParisSummitonaNewGlobalFinancingPactinJune2023tomakerecommendationsonhowtobringdownthecostofcapitalforcleanenergyinvestmentinEMDE.Thisreportanswersthatrequest,buildingonpreviousIEAanalysisandonnewsurveydatacollectedfortheIEA’sCostofCapitalObservatoryproject.

Oursurveyofleadingfinanciersandinvestorsconfirmsthatthecostofcapitalforutility-scalesolarphotovoltaic(PV)projectsinEMDEiswellovertwiceashighasitisinadvancedeconomies.ThisreflectshigherrealandperceivedrisksinEMDEatthecountry,sectoralandprojectlevels.Anelevatedcostofcapitalpushesupfinancingcostsandmakesitmuchmoredifficulttogenerateattractiverisk-adjustedreturns,especiallyforrelativelycapital-intensivecleantechnologies.Asaresult,EMDEcanenduppayingmoreforcleanenergyprojectsortheycanmissoutaltogether.SolarPVplantsandothercleanenergyprojectstendtoinvolvearelativelyhighershareofupfrontexpenditureandalowershareofoperatingexpensesintotalprojectcosts.Ifcountriescannotaffordhighupfrontcosts,theycanbelockedintopollutingtechnologiesthatmightinitiallybelessexpensivebutrequirepersistentspendingon–andcombustionof–fossilfuelsfortheiroperation.

Countryandmacrofactorsareamajorcontributortothehighcostofcapitalforcleanenergyprojects,butsotooarerisksspecifictotheenergysector

Broadcountry-relatedrisksandmacroeconomicfactorstypicallyexplainalargeshareofcountry-by-countryvariationsinthecostofcapital.Theseincludetheruleoflawandsanctityofcontracts,aswellasconcernsaboutcurrencyfluctuationsandconvertibility.AsthebalanceofcapitalspendingonenergyinEMDEshiftsawayfromdollarised,globallytradedcommodities,suchasoil,towardscleanenergyprojectsthatrelyondomesticallygeneratedrevenues,theoverallqualityandpredictabilityofthedomesticbusinessenvironmentbecomeevenmoreimportantforinvestors.Mechanismsthatmitigatetheserisksincludeguaranteesagainstexpropriationandfacilitiestoreducethecostofcurrency

1ReferencestoEMDEinthisreportexcludethePeople'sRepublicofChina(hereafter,"China").

8InternationalEnergyAgency|ReducingtheCostofCapital

hedging.However,overthelongertermthereisnosubstituteforeffortstotackletheunderlyingissuesbystrengtheningnationalinstitutions,reducinginflation,anddeepeninglocalcapitalmarketsandfinancialsystems.EMDEthathavesuccessfullyscaledupcleanenergyinvestment,includingIndia,BrazilandSouthAfrica,haveallreliedheavilyondomesticsourcesofcapital.

Therearealsoproject-andsector-specificrisksthatcanbeaddresseddirectlybyenergypolicymakersandregulators;thesearethefocusofthisreport.Inthecaseofcleanenergygenerationprojectsinthepowersector,keyissueshighlightedbysurveyrespondentsrelatetosectorregulations,thereliabilityofrevenues–dependentmainlyontheoff-taker’sabilitytopayontime–andtheavailabilityoftransmissioninfrastructureorland,andhowalltheseissuesaredefinedincontracts.Suchproject-andsector-specificelementscanaccountfor20-30%ofthehighercostofcapitalinEMDE.Thisreportprovidesdetailedinsightsintothesefactors,howtheyvaryacrosspartsoftheenergysector,andwhatcanbedonetoaddressthem.ThereareplentyofpositiveexamplesinEMDEwhereclearregulation,avisionandintenttomoveaheadwithcleanenergytransitions,andareadinesstoworkwiththeprivatesectorhaveyieldedimpressiveresults.

TherequiredincreaseinEMDEcleanenergyinvestmentishuge,butalmostallofitinvolvesmaturetechnologiessupportedbytriedandtestedpolicies

FromUSD270billiontoday,annualcapitalinvestmentincleanenergyinEMDEneedstorisetoUSD870billionbytheearly2030stogetontracktomeetnationalclimateandenergypledges,andtoUSD1.6trillionina1.5-degreepathway.Theincreasesareneededacrossarangeoftechnologiesandsectors,butthreeareasstandout:almostaquarterofthetotalcleanenergyinvestmentoverthenexttenyearsgoestoutility-scalesolarandwindprojects,andanotherquarterismadeupofinvestmentinelectricitynetworksandinefficiencyimprovementsinbuildingstogether.Asmallfractionofthetotalinvestmentspend–lessthanUSD50billionperyear–wouldbesufficienttoensureuniversalaccesstoelectricityandtocleancookingfuels.

TheincreaseinspendingissteepbutalmostalltherequiredEMDEinvestmentisinmaturetechnologiesandinsectorswheretherearetriedandtestedpolicyformulasforsuccess.ThiswouldgiveEMDEafirmfootholdinthenewcleanenergyeconomy,withmajorbenefitsforenergyaccessandsecurity,sustainablegrowth,andemployment,aswellasforemissionsandairquality.Onlyabout5%ofthecumulativeEMDEcleanenergyinvestmentneedsto2035areinsectorsthatdependonnascenttechnologiessuchaslow-emissionshydrogen,hydrogen-basedfuels,orcarboncapture,utilisationandstorage.

Keyrolesforenhancedinternationalsupportandconcessionalfinance

Investmentonthisscalewillmeanscalingupallsourcesoffinance,withavitallyimportantroleforwell-coordinated,enhancedinternationalfinancialandtechnicalsupport.Aspartoftheglobalpushtoexpandandimprovefinanceforsustainabledevelopment,weestimatethatatriplingofconcessionalfundingforEMDEenergytransitionswillberequiredtogetEMDEontrackfortheirenergyandclimategoals.Notallprojectsorcountriesrequirethis

ExecutiveSummary9

kindofsupport,anditcannotreplaceneededpolicyactionsorinstitutionalreforms.But,usedstrategically,itcanhelpcountriesremovebarriersthatareslowingcleanenergyinvestment–includingweaknessesinprojectpreparation,dataquality,andenergysectorpoliciesandregulationthatpushupthecostofcapital–andbringinmuchlargervolumesofprivatecapital.Targetedconcessionalsupportisparticularlyimportantfortheleastdevelopedcountriesthatwillotherwisestruggletomobilisecapital.Strongercoordinationamonggovernments,developmentfinanceinstitutions,privatefinanciersandphilanthropieswillbeessentialtohelpEMDEnavigateandunderstandthedifferentfinancinginstruments,risk-mitigationandcreditenhancementtoolsthatcanhelpprojectsgetofftheground.

Loweringthecostofcapitalby1percentagepointcouldreducefinancingcostsforEMDEnetzerotransitionsbyUSD150billionperyear

Ouranalysisshowsthatcapitalcosts–e.g.forland,buildings,equipment–areusuallythelargestsingleelementintotalcleanenergyprojectcostsinadvancedeconomies,whereasinEMDEthelargestelementisfinancingcosts.Financingcostsforutility-scalesolarPVprojectsinEMDE,forexample,canconstitutearoundhalformoreofthelevelisedcostofelectricity.EffortstodecreasethecostofcapitalinEMDEarenotonlycrucialforinvestorsbutalsofortheoverallaffordabilityofenergytransitionsforconsumers.WeestimatethatnarrowingthegapinthecostofcapitalbetweenEMDEandadvancedeconomiesby1percentagepoint(100basispoints)couldreduceaveragecleanenergyfinancingcostsinEMDEbyUSD150billioneveryyear.

RecommendationsonhowtobringdownthecostofcapitalforcleanenergyinvestmentinEMDE

Multiplefactorsaffectthecostofcapitalandmanyoftheeconomy-wideriskslieoutsidetheremitofenergydecisionmakers,butthequalityofenergyinstitutions,policiesandregulationsstillmattersgreatly.Inthisreport,wehighlighttheimportanceofaclearvisionandimplementationplanforenergytransitions,backedbyreliabledataandsupportwithprojectpreparation.Weunderscoretheneedforenhancedinternationalsupportandcollaboration.UsingcasestudiesandEMDEcountryexamples,wealsoexploreindetailsomespecificrisksandappliedsolutions.Findingsarepresentedhereunderfourheadingsthatreflectrecurringthemesfromourdiscussionswithinvestorsandpolicymakers:theimportanceofgoodpolicyandregulation,reliablepayments,timelypermittingandavailabilityofinfrastructure,andtailoredsupportfornewandemergingtechnologies.

nPolicyandregulatoryrequirementsforcleanenergyprojectsvarywidelyacrossdifferentpartsoftheenergyeconomy,althoughacommondenominatoristheneedforregulationstobetechnicallysound,clearandpredictable.Regulatoryuncertaintiesinthepowersectorareamajorconcern,especiallyinnewareassuchasenergystorageorprivatelyfinancedgrids.Strongregulatoryframeworksforefficiency,includingbuildingcodesandstringentminimumenergyperformancestandardsforappliancesasseeninChile,areanecessaryconditiontoscaleupinvestmentinthesesectors.SouthAfrica’s

10InternationalEnergyAgency|ReducingtheCostofCapital

experiencewithwell-designed,regularprocurementprogrammesforrenewableshasbeenveryeffectivetojump-startbatterystorageinvestmentanddeployment.

nPaymentandrevenueriskscanbeoffsetbywideravailabilityanduseofguarantees,alongsideeffortstostrengthentheunderlyingfinancialhealthoftheentitiesinvolved.Delaysinpaymentofpowerpurchasedbyoff-takers,generallystate-ownedutilities,havebeenaregularconcernforinvestorsandfinanciersofrenewablegenerationprojectsinEMDE(exceptformorematuremarketsthathavealreadyseenconsiderabledeploymentofsolarPVandwind).Greateravailabilityofguaranteesthatcoversuchpaymentdelays,whicharebeingintroducedinvariousAfricancountriesforexample,canhelptoreducerisksandunlockmoreinvestmentincountriesthatareseekingtoscaleuprenewablepower.Thisimpliesincreasingthecapitalallocatedforguaranteesbyinternationalfinancialinstitutions.

nTimelypermittingandco-ordinatedbuild-outofgridsincreasesthepredictabilityofprojecttimelinesandavoidsconnectiondelays,ariskthatworriesinvestorsmoreandmore,includinginEMDEwithagoodtrackrecordofcleanpowerprojects.Inthecaseofhydropowerforexample,identifyingviablesitesandconductingenvironmentalduediligencecancausesignificantconstructiondelays.Similarissuesarehighlightedbyinvestorsforgridsandutility-scalesolarandwind,especiallyincountrieswithhighsharesofvariablegeneration.India’sexperiencewithsolarparkswheretenderswereputinplacewithlandprovidedhavereducedrisksandenabledlowerfinancingcosts.Tenderstoallocatetransmissionaroundgreencorridorsarealsoontherise.Astheshareofrenewablesincreases,itiseasiertoearmarktransmissionlinesas“green”,giventheseareneededalmostexclusivelytoevacuateexistingorexpectedsolarandwind.Theirgreencharacteristicscanalsohelpattracthighlevelsofprivateinternationalcapital.Bringingintheprivatesectortobuildtransmissionlinesthroughprojectfinancestructures(withcontractslikethosesuccessfullyappliedingeneration),asseeninBrazilandvariousotherLatinAmericancountries,hasaproventrackrecordandcouldbemorewidelyapplied.

nSomenewandemergingtechnologiesandsectorsrequiretailoredsupporttoaddressspecificrisks,suchasthelackofcharginginfrastructureforelectricvehiclesortechnologicalriskassociatedwithfirst-of-a-kindadvancedbiofuelprojects.Thesesectorswillneedtailoredsolutionssuchastargetedtaxcreditsorfirstlossguarantees,alongsidecomplementarymeasuressuchasconsumeraccesstolow-costautoloansforelectricvehiclesandpricingreformsthatmakeelectricitycompetitivewith(oftensubsidised)transportfuels.Aswithothergrowthmarkets,governmentsshouldconsiderrenewablefuelstandardsorbiofuelmandatessuchasthoseappliedinIndonesiatoprovidestablemarketconditionsforinvestors.

Chapter1

Chapter1|Unlockingcleanenergyinvestment11

Unlockingcleanenergyinvestment

Whythecostofcapitalmatters

SUMMARY

•Meetingnationalandglobalclimategoalsrequiresamassivescale-upincleanenergyinvestmentsinemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(EMDE).Annualcleanenergyinvestmenttogetontrackfora1.5-degreepathwayneedstoreachUSD1.6trillioninEMDE(excludingChina)bytheearly2030s,upfromaroundUSD270billiontoday.Thesesumsarewaybeyondthecapabilitiesofpublicfunding.Allsourcesoffinancewillneedtogrow,butthelargestgrowthwillneedtocomefromprivatesources,backedbystrategicandjudicioususeofinternationalpublicfinance.

•AhighcostofcapitalinEMDEmakesitmuchmoredifficulttogenerateattractiverisk-adjustedreturns,especiallyforrelativelycapital-intensivecleanenergytechnologies.SurveydatacollectedbytheIEAshowthatthecostofcapitaliswellovertwiceashighinEMDEasitisinadvancedeconomies.

•Countryandmacrorisksarethelargestcontributorstothishighcostofcapital,buttherearealsoenergysectorandproject-specificrisksthatarewithintheremitofenergypolicymakerstoaddress.Theseenergy-specificelementsarethefocusofthisreport,althougheffortsinparalleltotacklebroaderrisks,suchascurrencyrisk,andtofurtherdevelopdomesticfinancialsystemsinEMDEarealsoessential.

•Thereisawealthofcountryexamplesshowingthatpredictablecleanenergypolicyframeworks,basedonacoherentvisionforenergytransitioninvestmentsandfinance,areprerequisitesforscalingupinvestment.TheseareareaswherenationalpolicymakersinEMDEshouldtakethelead.Butmuchgreaterinternationalfinancialandtechnicalsupportisalsorequired,especiallyfortheleastdevelopedcountriesandnascentmarketswheretechnologyrisksarehigher.

•Mobilisingprivatefinanceatthescaleneededwillrequireatleastatriplingininternationalconcessionalfundstohelpimprovetheriskreturnprofileofcleanenergyprojectsacrosstheelectricity,end-useandlow-emission-fuelsectors.AnestimatedUSD90billiontoUSD110billionperyearinconcessionalfundsisneededtogetona1.5-degreepathway.Thesefundscanhelpmobiliseprivatecapitalincountriesandsectorsthatdonothaveaccesstocommercialfinance.

•Loweringthecostofcapitalcansubstantiallybringdowntheoverallcostoftransitionsandreducethecostspaidbyconsumers.AonepercentagepointreductioninthecostofcapitalcomparedwithcurrentlevelswouldsavearoundUSD150billioninannualcleanenergyfinancingcosts(representing20%ofannualfinancingcosts)fornetzerotransitionsto2050.Betterriskmanagementthroughstrongpolicyframeworksandregulationaswellasenhanceddeploymentofde-riskinginstrumentsarekey.

12InternationalEnergyAgency|ReducingtheCostofCapital

1.1Thecleanenergyinvestmentgap

Cleanenergyinvestmentshaveincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears,risingby40%since2020toreachanestimatedUSD1.8trillionin2023.Theseinvestmentsencompassarangeoftechnologies,includinglow-emissionspowerandfuels,energyefficiencyimprovements,electrificationofmobilityandheat,andgridsandstorage.SpendingintheseareasisnowsignificantlyhigherthantheUSD1trilliongoingtounabatedfossilfuels.

However,patternsofinvestmentrevealamajorgeographicalimbalance.Morethan80%ofcleanenergyinvestments–andthevastmajorityoftheincreaseinrecentyears–isconcentratedinadvancedeconomiesandinthePeople'sRepublicofChina(hereafter,"China").Therearesomebrightspotsinotheremergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies(EMDE

1

),butoverallcapitalflowstocleanenergyintheseeconomiesremainflatandfarbelowwheretheyneedtobetosatisfyrisingdemandforenergyinasustainableway.Theseeconomiesarehometotwo-thirdsoftheworldpopulation,andaccountforaroundone-thirdofglobalGDPbutforonlyaround15%ofcleanenergyinvestment(Figure1.1).ThisreportfromtheIEAexploresthereasonsforthisimbalance,focusingonthehighcostofcapital,andwhatneedstobedonetobringdownthesecostsandscaleupcleanenergyinvestmentsinthecountriesthatneeditmost.

Figure1.1⊳Cleanenergyinvestment,GDPandpopulationbyregion

BillionUSD(2022,MER)

Economyanddemography

100%

2000

75%

1500

50%

1000

25%

500

Cleanenergyinvestment

201820192020202120222023eGDPPopulation

EMDEChinaAdvancedeconomies

IEA.CCBY4.0.

EMDEmakeupoverone-thirdofglobalGDPandtwo-thirdsoftheglobalpopulation,butonlyaround15%ofcleanenergyinvestment

Notes:MER=marketexchangerate.Valuesfor2023areestimates.

1ReferencestoEMDEinthisreportexcludeChina,unlessotherwisespecified,butincludeChile,Colombia,CostaRicaandMexico.ThefulllistofcountriesincludedintheEMDEgroupingisinAnnexA.

Chapter1|Unlockingcleanenergyinvestment13

1

ThisreporthasbeenproducedinresponsetoarequestfromtheSummitforanewGlobalFinancingPactinJune2023(Elysee,2023),whichtaskedtheIEAbythetimeofits50thAnniversaryMinisterialMeetinginFebruary2024todoasfollows:

“BuildingontheIEA-IFCreporttotheSummiton“ScalingupPrivateFinanceforCleanEnergyinEmergingandDevelopingCountries”,theIEAshouldmakerecommendationsonhowtobringdownthecostofcapitalforcleanenergyinvestmentsinemerginganddevelopingcountries,takingintoaccountthetransparencyanddataavailabilitytoassessrisks”.

SincethisanalysiswasaskedoftheIEA,itsfocusisonissuesandsolutionsthatliewithintheremitofenergydecisionmakers.WedosowithreferencetoIEAscenariosthatprovidedetailedinsightsontechnologyanddeploymenttrendsinnetzerotransitions(Box1.1).However,risksthatpushupthecostofcapitalextendwellbeyondtheenergysector,highlightingtheneedforabroadefforttocreatetheconditionsthatwillallowallcountriestobenefitfromparticipationinthenewcleanenergyeconomy.

Box1.1⊳IEAscenariosusedinthisreport

IEAanalysisisbasedonscenarios