法国欧洲选举情况分析报告-外文版培训课件

POLITICS

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SOCIETYEuropeanelectionsinFranceCHAPTER

01OverviewVoterturnoutintheEuropeanParliamentElectionsintheEuropeanUnion(EU)from1979to2019EUParliament:voterturnoutintheEuropeanelections1979-201970%61.99%58.98%58.41%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%56.67%50.62%49.51%45.47%42.97%42.61%1979198419891994199920042009201420193Description:In2019,over50percentofEUcitizensvotedintheEuropeanparliamentaryelections,thehighestvoterturnoutsince1994,whenitwas56percent.ThehighestturnoutoccurredinthefirstsetofEuropeanparliamentaryelections,heldin1979,inwhich61.99percentofeligibleEuropeansvoted.Voterturnoutdeclinedineveryelectionsubsequentelectionhowever,reachingalowof42.61percentin2014.

ReadmoreNote(s):EU;1979to2019Source(s):EuropeanParliamentShareoftheseatsintheEuropeanParliamentfrom1979to2019,bypartygroupShareofseatsintheEuropeanParliamentwonbypartygroups1979-2019EuropeanPeople'sPartySocialists&DemocratsRenewEuropeGreens/EuropeanFreeAllianceIndependentMEPsIdentityandDemocracyEuropeanUnitedLeftEuropeanConservatives&ReformistsForzaEuropeTechnicalGroupofIndependentMembersGroupoftheEuropeanRightUnionforEuropeoftheNationsCommunistandAlliesGroupEuropeanDemocratsEuropeanRadicalAllianceRainbowGroupEuropeofFreedomandDirectDemocracyLeftUnity40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%1979198419891994199920042009201420194Description:TheEuropeanParliament(EP)electionssettotakeplaceinJune2024willbethe10thelectionstotakeplacesincethefoundingoftheEPin1979.TheEuropeanParliamentisthelegislativebodyoftheEuropeanUnionandisdirectlyelectedbycitizensofthe27EUmemberstates.Since1979,thetwolargestpartiesintheparliamenthavebeenthecenter-rightEuropeanPeople'sParty(EPP)andthecenter-leftSocialistsandDemocrats(S&D).Inrecentdecades,theliberal/centrist[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;1979to2019Source(s):EuropeanParliamentaryResearchServiceSeatswoninEuropeanParliamentElectionsfrom1979to2019,bypartygroupingEuropeanParliamentElections:seatsgainedbypartiesinelections1979-2019SeatsinEuropeanParliamentEuropeanPeople'sPartyGreens/EuropeanFreeAllianceIndependentMEPsSocialists&DemocratsIdentityandDemocracyEuropeanUnitedLeftRenewEuropeEuropeanConservatives&ReformistsForzaEuropeTechnicalGroupofIndependentMembersGroupoftheEuropeanRightUnionforEuropeoftheNationsCommunistandAlliesGroupEuropeanDemocratsEuropeanRadicalAllianceRainbowGroupEuropeofFreedomandDirectDemocracyLeftUnity01002003004005006007008001979198419891994199920042009201420195Description:SincethefirstEuropeanParliamentelectionsin1979,17groupshavebeenrepresentedintheparliament,aswellasover200independentMEPs.ByfarthetwomostsuccessfulpartiesinthehistoryoftheparliamenthavebeentheEuropeanPeople'sParty(EPP)andtheSocialists&Democrats(S&Ds),beingtheonlytwopartygroupstohavewonaEuropeanelection.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;1979to2019Source(s):EuropeanParliamentGenderdistributionintheEuropeanParliamentfrom1979to2019GenderdistributionintheEuropeanParliament1979-2019MenWomen30%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%16%18%19%26%31%35%37%41%84%82%81%74%70%69%65%63%59%1979198419891994199920042009201420196/statistics/300456/eu-parlament-turnout-for-the-european-electionsIn2019,41percentoftheelectedmembersofparliament(MPs)werewomen,anincreaseoffourpercentcomparedtothepreviouselectoralperiodat37percentofMPs.OveralltheshareoffemaleMPshasmorethandoubledduringthistime.

ReadmoreNote(s):EU;1979to2019Source(s):EuropeanParliamentForecastofseatswonintheEuropeanParliamentelectionsin2024,bycountrySeatsforecastfortheEuropeanParliamentelectionsin2024TotalEPPS&DIDTotal<b>720<b><b>173<b><b>131<b><b>98<b><b>GermanyFrance96817661533331222121212126912620308Italy8141910113Spain261990Poland4RomaniaNetherlandsBelgiumCzechRepublicGreece0610343303931HungaryPortugal0406847Description:The2024EuropeanParliamentelectionswilltakeplacebetweenthe6thand9thofJune2024,withatotalof720seatstobewonforthenextfive-yeartermoftheparliament.TheEuropeanPeople'sParty,acenter-rightblocleadbythecurrentEuropeanCommissionpresidentUrsulavonderLeyen,aresettoremainthelargestpartyinparliament,albeitwithadeclineinthenumberofseatswoncomparedto2019.Otherpartieswhicharesettoloseseatsincludethecentre-leftSocialists[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;2024Source(s):ECFRCHAPTER

02EuropeanelectionsinFrancePercentageturnoutofregisteredvotersintheEuropeanelectionsinFrancefrom1979to2019VoterturnoutintheEuropeanelectionsinFrance1979-201970%60.71%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%56.72%52.71%50.12%48.8%46.76%42.76%42.43%40.63%1979198419891994199920042009201420199Description:ThisbarchartshowsthepercentageturnoutofregisteredvotersintheEuropeanelectionsinFrancefrom1979to2019.ItdisplaysthatthevoterturnoutfortheEuropeanelectionsinFrancefellfrom1994to2014,beforereachinganhigherlevelin2019,withanelectoralparticipationwhichamountedto50.12percent.ReadmoreNote(s):France;1979-2019;18yearsandolderSource(s):EuropeanParliament;KantarPercentageofcitizenswhoabstainedfromvotingfortheEuropeanParliamentElectionsinFrancein2019,byageFrenchpeoplewhoabstainedfromvotingfortheEuropeanelections2019,byage70%61%60%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%54%49%38%35%18-24yearsold25-34yearsold35-49yearsold50-59yearsold60-69yearsold70yearsoldandolder10Description:ThisbarchartpresentsthepercentageofFrenchcitizenswhodidnotvotefortheEuropeanParliamentelectionsin2019,distributedbyage.Itrevealsthattheabstentionwasthehighestamongthevoterpopulationaged18-24yearsold.61percentofthemabstainedfromvotingfortheEuropeanelections.ReadmoreNote(s):France;May22-25,2019;5,433respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):France24;Ipsos;RadioFrance;RFI;SopraSteria;TVFranceInternationalDistributionofthereasonsforelectoralabstentionintheEuropeanParliamentelectionsinFrancein2019ReasonsforabstentionintheEuropeanParliamentelectionsinFrance2019Shareofrespondents10%

15%0%5%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%49%55%TheseelectionswillnotchangeyoursituationToshowyourdissatisfactiontowardsthepoliticalpartiesToshowyourdissatisfactiontowardstheEuropeanUnionTheseelectionsdonotinterestyou38%30%29%29%29%YoudonotknowthelistsandcandidateswhoarerunningYoudonotseeanydifferencebetweenthelists'projectsTheEuropeanUniondoesnotinterestyou19%Younevervote,oralmost7%11Description:ThisstatisticshowstheresultsofasurveyonthereasonsforelectoralabstentionintheEuropeanParliamentelectionsinFrancein2019.ItappearsthattheopinionthattheseelectionsdidnotseemtohavemuchimpactonFrenchvoters'liveswasmentionedasthemainreasonforelectoralabstentionamongtherespondents.ReadmoreNote(s):France;May26,2019(12amto6pm);3,018*;18yearsandolder;Non-voters,registeredonvoterslists*Source(s):CNews;IFOP;ParisMatch;SudRadioTurnoutindexfortheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFranceinApril2024TurnoutindexfortheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFrance2024Plantovote45.0%Plantoabstain54.5%12Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinApril2024,around45.5percentoftheFrenchregisteredvoterswereplanningongoingtovoteinJune,fortheEuropeanParliamentelection.Incomparison,in2019,around52percentoftheFrenchwenttovoteforthepreviousEuropeanelection.ReadmoreNote(s):France;April13to17,2024;1,364respondents;18yearsandolder;Registeredvotersamongasampleof1,503people,representativeoftheFrenchpopulationSource(s):IFOP;LCI;LeFigaro;SudRadioVotingintentionsfortheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFranceinApril2024,bypartygroupVotingintentionsfortheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFrance2024Others1%Far-leftparties1%Radical/sovereignright-wingparties39%Leftparties29.5%Greenparties3.0%Moderate-rightparties8.5%Presidentialmajorityparties17.0%13Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinApril2024,around39percentofregisteredvotersinFranceintendedtovoteforoneoftheradical/sovereignright-wingparties,suchasReconquête!,ledbyMarionMaréchalorLeRassemblementNational,ledbyJordanBardella.Ontheotherhand,around17.5percentoftherespondentsintendedtovoteforoneofthePresidentialmajority'sparties.ReadmoreNote(s):France;April13to17,2024;1,364respondents;18yearsandolder;Registeredvotersamongasampleof1,503people,representativeoftheFrenchpopulationSource(s):IFOP;LCI;LeFigaro;SudRadioPublicopiniononkeyissuesintheEuropeanelections'voteinFranceinApril2024PublicopiniononkeyissuesintheEuropeanelections'voteinFrance2024Shareofrespondents15%

20%0%5%10%25%30%35%40%45%PurchasingpowerImmigrationHealthcaresystemEnvironmentalprotectionSecurityofpropertyandpeopleTerroristthreatSchoolsystemandeducationLevelofsocialinequalitiesFrance'sroleinEuropeandintheworldWarinUkraineFutureofthepensionsystemFutureofagriculture14Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinApril2024,justafewweeksbeforetheEuropeanParliamentelections,whenaskedaboutthekeyissuesintheelections'vote,39percentoftheFrenchrespondentsmentionedpurchasingpowerandimmigrationastwoofthemostimportantissues.Ontheotherhand,onlysevenpercentofFrenchrespondentsmentionedunemploymentasakeytopicintheEU'sParliamentelections.ReadmoreNote(s):France;April19to24,2024;10,651respondents;18yearsandolder;FrenchregisteredasvotersSource(s):FondationJean-Jaurès;InstitutMontaigne;Ipsos;LeMonde;SciencesPoCHAPTER

03Riseofthefar-rightduringEuropeanelectionsinFranceShareofvotescastforextremeright-wingpartiesinthefirstroundoflegislative,regional,EuropeanandpresidentialelectionsinFrancebetween2007and2022ScoresoftheFrenchfarrightinthefirstroundofthemainelections2007-202233.33%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%29.75%28.71%27.3%26.51%25.67%19.57%19.61%18.68%17.95%16.58%15.14%14.08%12.96%12.64%11.35%10.52%

10.44%4.83%0%16Description:WhilethescoreofFrenchfar-rightpartiesinthefirstroundofthe2019Europeanelectionshadreachedahistoriclevel(29.75percent),withMarineLePen'spartynarrowlyovertakingthepresidentialmajority,theresultsobtainedinthefirstroundofthe2021regionalelectionsseemedtocountertheprogressionofthefarright,droppingto19.61percent.However,thiscounter-performanceseemstohavebeenmoreofanaccidentthanasetback,asfar-rightpartiesreceivedone-thirdofthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):France;2007to2022Source(s):FranceInfo;Ministèredel'IntérieuretdesCollectivitéslocalesShareofvotesfortheRassemblementNationalintheEuropeanParliamentelectionsinFrancefrom1979to2019ShareofvotesfortheRassemblementNationalinEuropeanelectionsFrance201930%25%20%24.9%23.3%15%11.7%11%10.5%19949.8%200410%5%6.3%20095.7%19990%1979*198419892014201917Description:DuringthelastEuropeanParliamentelectionof2019,thefar-rightpartyRassemblementNational(previouslyknownasFrontNational),receivedmorethan23percentofthevotesinFrance.Theturningpointintheparty'ssuccessinEuropeanelectionswasin2014whentheyreceivedalmost25percentofthevotes.ReadmoreNote(s):France;1979to2019;*In1979,theNationalFrontfailedtocompilealistandcalledforabstention.ReadmoreSource(s):L'Express;MinistryoftheInterior(France)EuropeanParliamentelectionresultsinFrancein2019EuropeanParliamentelectionresultsinFrance2019Shareofvotes0%5%10%15%20%25%PrenezlePouvoir(RN)Renaissance(LaREM)23.31%22.41%EuropeEcologie(EELV,AEI,R&PS)Union-Droite-Centre(LesRépublicains)LaFranceInsoumise13.47%8.48%6.31%6.19%Envied'Europe(PlacePublique,PartiSocialiste,NouvelleDonne)DeboutlaFrance3.51%3.27%ListeCitoyenne(Génération.s,DiEM25)LesEuropéens(UDI)2.5%Pourl'Europedesgens(PC)2.49%2.17%Partianimaliste1.82%UrgenceécologieEnsemblepourleFrexit(UPR)1.17%18Description:ThisstatisticshowstheresultsoftheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFrancein2019.ThelistcalledPrenezlePouvoir,andconductedbyfar-rightpartyRassemblementNational(previouslyknownastheFrontNational),won23.31percentofvotes.ItwasfollowedbyEmmanuelMacron'spartyLaREM,whichrankedsecondwith22.41percentofvotes.ReadmoreNote(s):France;May27,2019;18yearsandolderSource(s):MinistryoftheInterior(France)NumberofMEPsfromFranceelectedtotheEuropeanParliamentin2019,byEuropeanpoliticalpartygroupingNumberofMEPsfromFranceelectedtotheEuropeanparliamentin2019,bypartyNumberofMEPs1005152025Right-wingnationalists(ENF)Liberals(ALDE)2221Greens(EFA)12Center-right(EPP)Left(GUE/NGL)86Center-left(S&D)519Description:ThisstatisticpresentsthenumberofMEPselectedbyFranceintheEuropeanElectionsofMay2019,byEuropeanPoliticalPartygrouping.InFrancetheEuropeofNationsandFreedompoliticalgroupwon22seatsintheEuropeanParliamentwiththeAllianceofLiberalsandDemocratsforEurope(ALDE)winning21seats.ReadmoreNote(s):France;2019Source(s):EuropeanParliamentVotingintentionsbypoliticalpartyfortheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFranceinMarch2024,byageVotingintentionsbypoliticalpartyfortheEuropeanParliamentelectionFrance2024RN-JordanBardellaEELV-MarieToussaintLFI-ManonAubryRenaissance/LREM,MoDem,Horizons-VéroniqueHayerPSetPlacePublique-RaphaëlGlucksmannLR-François-XavierBellamyPCF-LéonDeffontainesReconquête-MarionMaréchal100%3%6%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%6%2%5%5%6%6%3%4%3%13%3%2%4%5%5%3%5%6%11%7%11%10%5%14%6%17%9%9%11%13%12%13%4%12%15%18%4%19%13%34%29%40%33%32%31%24%18-2425-3435-4950-5960-6970andolder20Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinFranceinMarch2024,around31percentoftheFrenchregisteredvotersagedbetween18and24intendedtovoteforJordanBardella'sfar-rightparty'slist.Incomparison,around40percentofthevotersagedbetween50and59intendedtodothesame.ReadmoreNote(s):France;March1to6,2023;11,770respondents;18yearsandolder;FrenchregisteredasvotersSource(s):FondationJean-Jaurès;InstitutMontaigne;Ipsos;LeMonde;SciencesPoFrenchopiniononpoliticalparties'leadersintheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFranceinApril2024Frenchopiniononpoliticalparties'leadersintheEuropeanelectioninFrance2024ShareofrespondentsSupportRejection40%Indifference60%Donotknow0%20%36%80%100%1%120%JordanBardellaRaphaelGlucksmannManonAubry38%25%23%17%31%37%44%45%2%1%2%2%2%2%26%47%25%MarionMaréchalValérieHayer13%35%35%50%50%52%13%12%François-XavierBellamyMarieToussaint34%21Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinFranceinApril2024,justafewweeksbeforetheEuropeanParliamentelection,36percentoftheFrenchrespondentsdeclaredtheysupportedJordanBardella,leaderoftheRassemblementNationalfar-rightparty.Ontheotherhand,23percentoftherespondentsfavoredRaphaelGlucksmann,theSocialistParty'sleader.ReadmoreNote(s):France;April25to26,2024;1,005respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):OdoxaForeachofthefollowingterms,wouldyousayitapplieswellornottoJordanBardella?FrenchopiniononJordanBardella,leaderoftheRassemblementNationalFrance202460%56%56%52%52%50%40%30%20%10%0%44%43%HerenewsthepoliticalstaffHeisfriendlyHeisclosetotheconcernsoftheFrenchHeiscompetentHecanreformthecountryYoutrusthim22Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinFranceinFebruary2024,justafewmonthsbeforetheEuropeanParliamentelection,mostFrenchrespondentshadarathergoodopinionofJordanBardella,theyoungleaderoffar-rightparty,theRassemblementNational.Indeed,around56percentoftherespondentsbelievedhewasfriendlyand52percentalsothoughthewasclosetotheconcernsoftheFrench.ReadmoreNote(s):France;1,006respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):Fiducial;IFOP;SudRadioCHAPTER

04PublicopinionHowinterestedareyouintheupcomingEuropeanelection?LevelofinterestintheEuropeanParliamentelectioninFrancein2024InterestedSomewhatinterested56%Notinterested60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%57%46%31%23%28%26%18%15%November2023March2024April202424Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinApril2024,Frenchpeople'sinterestintheupcomingEuropeanParliamentelectionhasgrownsinceNovember2023.Indeed,inApril2024,57percentoftheFrenchrespondentsdeclaredthemselvesinterestedintheelection,whiletherewereonly46percentinNovember2023.ReadmoreNote(s):France;April19to24,2024;10,651respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):FondationJean-Jaurès;InstitutMontaigne;Ipsos;LeMonde;SciencesPoWhichofthefollowingissuesshouldbeapriorityfortheEuropeanUnionintheupcomingyears?FrenchopiniononthemostimportantissuesfortheEuropeanUnionin2024Shareofrespondents5%

10%0%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%42%MigrationcrisisFightagainstclimatechange36%35%FutureofEuropeanagricultureRe-industrialisationofEurope30%28%27%25%24%BuildingacommonEuropeandefenseHarmonizationofnationalsocialsystemsSupportforeconomicgrowthStrengtheningEurope’sweightagainstChinaandtheUnitedStatesAidtoUkraine13%Protectionofminorities8%Preventionofepidemicrisks6%25Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinApril2024,justafewweeksbeforethe2024EuropeanParliamentelections,42percentofFrenchrespondentsbelievedtheEuropeanUnionneededtoprioritizethemigrationcrisisintheupcomingyears.Morethanone-thirdofthosesurveyedwerealsoconcernedaboutthefightagainstclimatechange,andaboutthefutureofEuropeanagriculture.ReadmoreNote(s):France;April19to24,2024;10,651respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):FondationJean-Jaurès;InstitutMontaigne;Ipsos;LeMonde;SciencesPoFrenchopinionontheweightofFranceintheEuropeanUnion'sdecisionsinApril2024FrenchopinionontheweightofFranceintheEuropeanUnion'sdecisions2024Alotofinfluence8%Noinfluenceatall10%Someinfluence38%Notsomuchinfluence44%26Description:AccordingtoasurveyconductedinApril2024,justafewweeksbeforetheEuropeanParliamentelections,onlyeightpercentofFrenchrespondentsbelievedFrancehadalotofinfluenceontheEuropeanUnion'sdecisions.Ontheotherhand,44percentofthosesurveyedthoughttheircountrydidnothavemuchinfluenceand10percenteventhoughtFrancehadnoimpactatallontheEU'sdecisions.ReadmoreNote(s):France;April19to24,2024;10,651respondents;18yearsandolder;RegisteredvotersSource(s):FondationJean-Jaurès;InstitutMontaigne;Ipsos;LeMonde;SciencesPoFrenchopinionontheirpreferencebetweenEuropeanandnationaldecisionsinApril2024,byfieldFrenchopinionontheirpreferencebetweenEuropeanandnationaldecisions2024ShareofrespondentsDeci