贝莱德1.6万字报告：2024年中全球展望（中英文对照）

2024MidyearGlobalOutlookWavesoftransformationInstituteBlackROCK.BIIM0724U/M-3698250-20242024年中展望副主席副主席—贝莱德负责人—贝莱德投资研究所全球首席投资策略师—投资组合研究全球主管—可持续发展投资研究与分析主管–权衡情景变得真实倾向于风险发现下一波浪潮234567全球选举基础设施人口统计视图摘要8-9101112131415由于人工智能（AI）投资的潜在激增、低碳转型和工业革命同等的变革。但该投资的速度、规模和影响高度不确定。它是在大流行后不同寻常的经济背景下发生的：粘性通胀、利率上升、趋势增长疲弱和公共债务高企。我们认为，通过转型和由于劳动年龄人口减少等供应限制，宏观和市场波新局面已经形成。结果？与大流行前相比，增长疲软，通胀但现在，投资机会超越了宏观背景。我们看到，在五大力量或结构性转变的推动下，一波又一波的转型即将到来。我们看到其中三个刺激了主要的资本支出：人工智能的竞赛、低碳转型和供应链的重新布线。这项投资的规模、速度和影响高度不确定，但我们认为它可以像过去的技术革命一样改变经济和市场。我们与贝莱德的投资组合经理一起设计了五种截然不同的情景来评估近期前景，并认识到情况可能很快发在大流行之前，低通胀允许央行大幅降息并进行大规模资产购买以提振经济。这提振了金融经济，并帮助推动了债券和股票的上涨。在这个新体制下，实体经济更加重要。我们的第一个主题是“变得真实”。我们看到实体经济中最大的机遇是投资流入基础设施、能源系统和技术以及驱动它们的人员。我们认为公司可能需要改进商业模式并进行投资以保持竞争力。对于投资者来说，这意味着公司基本面更加重要。我们认为，赢家和输家之间的差距可能比以往任何时候都更大。我们寻找能够在不同场景中表现良好并倾向于当前最有可能的场景的投资。对我们来说，这是一个集中的人工智能场有可能发生时，我们随时准备适应。我们的第三个主题是发现下一波浪潮。这是指在结果(和投资机会)可能大不相同的情况下，保持活力，准备彻底调整资产配置。投资影响：从6至12个月的前景来看，我们仍然增持美股工智能主题股。增持日股是我们最坚定的观点之一。我们短期债券和信贷的收入。我们认为，私人市场是利用早期在美国、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亚公开分发。2适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资者和合格客户。2BIM0724U/M-3698250-2/162024MidyearOutlook2024MidyearOutlookJeanBoivinHead—JeanBoivinHead—BlackRockInvestmentInstituteViceChairman—BlackRockWeiLiGlobalChiefInvestmentStrategist—BlackRockInvestmentInstituteVivekPaulGlobalHeadofPortfolioResearch—BlackRockInvestmentInstituteChristopherKaminkerHeadofSustainableInvestmentResearchandAnalytics–BlackRockInvestmentInstituteContents23-43423-4345-75678-148-9101112131415AIbuildoutGlobalelectionsGlobalelectionsInfrastructureDemographicsJapanReadytoadaptViewssummaryTransformationahead?WeighingscenariosThemesGettingrealLeaningintoriskSpottingthenextwaveTheworldcouldbeundergoingatransformationonparwiththeIndustrialRevolution-thankstoapotentialsurgeininvestmentinartificialintelligence(AI),thelow-carbontransitionandarewiringofglobalsupplychains.Butthespeed,sizeandimpactofthatinvestmentishighlyuncertain.Anditcomesagainstanunusualeconomicbackdroppost-pandemic:stickyinflation,higherinterestrates,weakertrendgrowthandhighpublicdebt.Wethinktakingriskbyleaningintothetransformationandadaptingastheoutlookchangeswillbekey.Thenewregimeofgreatermacroandmarketvolatilityhastakenhold,shapedbysupplyconstraintslikeshrinkingworking-agepopulations.Theresult?Higherinflationandinterestratesamidweakergrowthrelativetothepre-pandemicera–andelevatedpublicdebt.Butnowinvestmentopportunitiestranscendthemacrobackdrop.Weseewavesoftransformationonthehorizon,drivenbyfivemegaforces–orstructuralshifts.Weseethreeofthemspurringmajorcapitalspending:theracetobuildoutAI,thelow-carbontransitionandtherewiringofsupplychains.Thesize,speedandimpactofthatinvestmentishighlyuncertain,butwethinkitcouldtransformeconomiesandmarketslikepasttechnologicalrevolutions.TogetherwithBlackRock’sportfoliomanagers,wedesignedfivestarklydifferentscenariostoassessthenear-termoutlook,recognizingitcouldquicklychange.Beforethepandemic,lowinflationallowedcentralbankstoslashinterestratesandmakemassiveassetpurchasestobuoytheeconomy.Thatboostedthefinancialeconomy–andhelpeddrivegainsacrossbondsandstocks.Inthisnewregime,therealeconomymattersmore.OurfirstthemeisGettingreal.Weseethebiggestopportunitiesintherealeconomyasinvestmentflowsintoinfrastructure,energysystemsandtechnology–andthepeopledrivingthem.Wethinkcompaniesmayneedtorevampbusinessmodelsandinvesttostaycompetitive.Forinvestors,itmeanscompanyfundamentalswillmatterevenmore.Thegapbetweenwinnersandloserscouldbewiderthanever,inourview.ThatdispersioncreatesopportunitiesandiswhyoursecondthemeisLeaningintorisk.Theanswertoahighlyuncertainoutlookisnotsimplyreducingrisk.Welookforinvestmentsthatcandowellacrossscenariosandleanintothecurrentmostlikelyone.Forus,that’saconcentratedAIscenariowhereahandfulofAIwinnerscankeepdrivingstocks.Westandreadytoadaptasandwhenanotherscenario–potentiallysuddenly–becomesmorelikelyasthetransformationunfolds.SoourthirdthemeisSpottingthenextwave.Thisisaboutbeingdynamicandreadytooverhaulassetallocationswhenoutcomes–andinvestmentopportunities-canbevastlydifferent.Investmentimplications:WestayoverweightU.S.stocksandtheAIthemeonasix-to12-monthview.OuroverweighttoJapanesestocksisoneofourhighest-convictionviews.Welikeincomeinshort-termbondsandcredit.Andweseeprivatemarketsasawaytotapintotheearlywinnersandtheinfrastructureneededfortheinvestmentboomahead.2BIIM0724U/M-3698250-引言引言转型在即？我们认为，世界可能正在经历历史上罕见的大规模变革浪潮。巨大的力量正在推动这一转变，并开始向实体经济释放大量投资:基础从而重塑市场和经济。请看图表。然而，这种投资的速度和规模，以及它对整个经济生考虑人工智能。扩大人工智能能力的竞争已一阶段，也很难确定确切的数量。这将取决于任何资源限制，比如在已经增长的需求(包在第二阶段，我们认为投资将扩大到寻求利低碳转型也刺激了大量投资。贝莱德投资研《转型情景》估计，未来十年，能源系统投资将达到每年3.5万亿美元。地缘政治分裂加剧也意味着投资:各国将国家安全置于经济未来投资速度和规模的不确定性，加上以供应限制为标志的不寻常的经济背景，使得人们很难准确判断世界的长期发展方向。但我先是人工智能建设的进步，然后是广泛采用。这一进展有助于提供方向——使我们能够不断发展资产配置。对GDP的累积贡献总额资本支出全要素生产率人工智能与低碳转型2024-2030s信息和通信技术0102030图表要点：人工智能和低碳转型可能会刺激历史上规模庞大的资本支出，而且所需时间比之前的技术革命要短得多。前瞻性估计可能不会实现。资料来源：贝莱德投资研究所，2024年6月，数据来自Crafts(2021)。注：该图表显示了美国以前的技术（“蒸汽”除外）在所示期间对GDP的累积贡献。对信息和通信技术、电力和蒸汽的估计取自Crafts(2021)等历史经济文献。人工智能(AI)和转型所需的支出是基于对数据中心投资要求的外部研究和BII转型场景（针对专业投资者）的BII估算这里）。其他革命发生了几十年，因此我们对人工智能和转型相关支出的估计假设在短时间内是乐观的情况。在美国、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亚公开分发。适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资者和合格客户。3BIM0724U/M-3698250-3/16IntroIntroTransformationahead?Wethinktheworldcouldbeundergoingwavesoftransformationonascalerarelyseeninhistory.Megaforcesaredrivingthistransformationandarestartingtounleashmassiveinvestmentintotherealeconomy:infrastructure,energysystems,advancedtechnology–andpeople.Wethinkthevolumeofinvestmentcouldbeonaparwithpasttechnologicalrevolutions–reshapingmarketsandeconomies.Seethechart.Yetthespeedandscaleofthatinvestment,anditspotentialimpactoneconomy-wideproductivity,arehighlyuncertain.ConsiderAI.TheracetoscaleupAIcapabilitiesisalreadyspurringmajorcapitalspending.ArangeofestimatesseeinvestmentinAIdatacentersrisingby60-100%annuallyincomingyears.Yetitisdifficulttopindownexactamounts,eveninthefirstphaseoftheAIbuildout.Itwilldependonanyresourceconstraints–likedifficultymeetingAI’senergyneedsontopofalreadygrowingdemand,includingforelectrification.Innovationsincomputingandenergycouldeasethoseconstraints.Inasecondphase,wethinkinvestmentwillbroadenouttofirmsseekingtoharnessAI–withtheamountdependingonAI’sbuildoutandadoption.Itispossiblethatthisallresultsinathirdphaseofbroadproductivitygains.Seepages8-9.Thelow-carbontransitionisalsospurringmajorinvestment.OurBlackRockInvestmentInstituteTransitionScenarioestimatesenergysysteminvestmentwillhit$3.5trillionperyearthisdecade.Risinggeopoliticalfragmentationalsoimpliesinvestment:countriesareprioritizingnationalsecurityovereconomicefficiency.Reconfiguringsupplychainsrequiresinvestment.Uncertaintyaroundthespeedandscaleofcominginvestment,plusanunusualeconomicbackdropmarkedbysupplyconstraints,makeittoughtogaugeexactlywheretheworldisheadinglongerterm.Butweseethetransformationevolvingthroughdistinctphases,likeadvancesintheAIbuildoutfirstandbroadadoptionlater.Thisprogressioncanhelpprovidedirection–enablingustoevolveassetallocationsontheway.MegacapexcomingTotalcumulativecontributionstoGDPCapitalspendingTotalfactorproductivityAI&low-carbontransition2024-2030sInformationandcommunicationtech1970s-2010sElectricity1880s-1940sSteam(UK)1760s-1840s?0102030PercentagepointsCharttakeaway:AIandthelow-carbontransitioncouldspurhistoricallylargecapitalspending-andinamuchshorterspaceoftimethanprevioustechnologicalrevolutions.Weseeapossibleinvestmentboomaheadthatcouldtransformeconomiesandmarkets.Butthespeed,scaleandimpactofthatinvestmentisunclear.3BIIM0724U/M-3698250-应用场景股票债券高利率，硬着陆集中式人工智能生产力的广泛提升（人工智能和资本支出繁荣）股票债券高利率，硬着陆集中式人工智能生产力的广泛提升（人工智能和资本支出繁荣）人工智能驱动的增长基础广泛，提升了潜获救硬着陆是人工智能估值是否领先于否是人工智能估值是否领先于否是否否是否是整体收益率会高于当前结构性增长是否会比大流行前是整体收益率会高于当前结构性增长是否会比大流行前未来12个月会出现衰退吗？的观点，即人工智能估值植根于稳健的盈利。未来12个月会出现衰退吗？由于市场或经济状况的变化，所表达的意见可能随时发生变化。本材料代表对特定时间市场环境的评估，并非对未来事件来源：贝莱德投资研究所，由于市场或经济状况的变化，所表达的意见可能随时发生变化。本材料代表对特定时间市场环境的评估，并非对未来事件来源：贝莱德投资研究所，2024年7月。注：我们这里的五个场景可以表示为不同路径上的节点。作为两个例子，箭头表示债回报的预期。两个箭头表示在这种情况下预计会有比单个箭头更大的相对移动。我们仅展示美国股票和国债，但对多个资产类别进行了分析。仅用于4适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资者和合格客户。4BIM0724U/M-3698250-4/16termscenariostermscenariosWeusescenariostohelpidentifywhereeconomiesandmarketsmaybeheadedonasix-to12-monthhorizon.Theyhelpputparametersaroundverydifferentstatesoftheworld–eveniftheydon’tcapturethemanypotentialoutcomesbeyondthathorizon.WeworkedwithportfoliomanagersacrossBlackRocktodevelopfive,distinctscenariosforthenear-termoutlook.Weseetwoscenarioswhereequitiescandowell:onewithaconcentratedgroupofwinnersinAI,evenwithatoughmacrobackdrop,andanotherwhereAI-drivengrowthbecomesmorebroad-based,leadingtoproductivitygainsandsharpratecuts.Thetwohardeconomiclandingscenariosdifferonwhethercentralbankscancometotherescuewithratecuts.Thefifthisoneofsubduedgrowthandstubborninflation,whereinflationprovessticky,keepingcentralbankpolicyrateshigher.Thearrowsontherightshowhowtheassumedmarketimpactcandivergesharplyacrossthesescenarios.WeleanintotheconcentratedAIcase,reflectingourviewthatAIvaluationsarerootedinsolidearnings.Yetwestandreadytopivot–andourapproachgivesusaroadmaptogaugewhenanotherscenariobecomesmorelikely.Wethinkexpertiseinidentifyingthesescenarioshiftscouldhelpinvestorsdeliveroutsizedreturns.U.S.U.S.returnsStocksBondsNoNoAreAIvaluationsaheadoffundamentals?WilloverallyieldsbehigherthancurrentNoNoAreAIvaluationsaheadoffundamentals?Willoverallyieldsbehigherthancurrentmarketpricing?WillgrowthbestructurallyNoNoweakerthanbeforethepandemic?Willtherebearecessioninthenext12months?Highrates,hardlandingStickyinflationrulesoutratecuts,andstrongdemandcouldtriggerfurtherhikes.Growthslowssharply.AIvaluationshithard.ConcentratedAIAI-drivengrowthboostnotenoughtooffsetotherstructuraldrags.Inflationpressureisongoingandpolicyratesstayhighforlonger.Subduedgrowth,stubborninflationGrowthslowstoalowertrendpace,inflationisstickyabovetargetandpolicyratesstayhigher.Broadproductivitygains(AIandcapexboom)AI-drivengrowthisbroadbased,liftingpotentialoutput.Inflationismutedandpolicyratesarecutsharply.RescuedhardlandingRatehikesoverwhelmabroad-basedAI-drivengrowthboost.Inflationfallsbelowtarget.Centralbanksdeliverdeepratecuts.BIIM0724U/M-3698250-主题1主题1济的管道和人民。想想为人工智能模型、计算机芯片、太阳能发电场、超级电池、扩张和劳动力的增长抑制了宏观波动：赢家能够以多快的速度出现并获得回报。万亿（美元）3210051015202530年图表要点：英伟达的飙升反映了人工智能兴起带来的巨大投资预期。此信息无意作为投资任何特定资产类别或策略的建议，也无意作为对未来业绩的承诺（甚至估计）。过去的表现并不是未来结果的可靠指标。资料来源：贝莱德投资研究所，数据来自彭博适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资者和合格客户。5BIM0724U/M-3698250-5/16ThemeTheme1GettingrealWeseemuchofthepotentiallargeinvestmentflowingintothepipesandpeopleoftheeconomy.ThinknewdatacenterspoweringAImodels,computerchips,solarfarms,superbatteries,factories,logisticscenters–androads,bridges,schoolsandhospitalsincountrieswithgrowingpopulations.It’sanewwaveofinvestmentintotherealeconomytransformingeconomiesandmarkets.It’saworldwherecompanyfundamentalswillmatterevenmore,wethink.Thisisabigchangefromthepre-2020dominanceofthefinancialeconomy.Steadilyexpandingglobalproductioncapacityandgrowingworkforceskeptmacrovolatilityatbay:whenevergrowthfaltered,centralbankscouldcometotherescuewithoutfearinganinflationflare-up.Thisstabilityreduceduncertaintyandallowedcentralbankstosignaltheirintentionswellinadvance.Suchafavorablebackdropbuoyedmostcompanies,leavinglittleroomfordifferentiationamongbusinessesandstockpickers.Wethinkthateraisover.Astherealeconomytakesoverfromthefinancialeconomy,wethinkinvestorsshouldactivelypositionforwavesoftransformationlikewehaverarelyseenbefore,wethink.Weseewidespreadopportunitiesforcompaniesthatinnovateandpositionthemselvestotakeadvantageofthistransformation.ThatincludesbuildingcapabilitiestoharnessAI,forexample.Spottingwinnerswillrequiredeepinsightsonthetechnologybeingdeveloped,itsapplicationsandthepotentialdisruptionitentails.Weareseeingthatplayoutnowwithcompaniesbuildingstrongcashflowsfromtherealeconomythankstotheirdominantpositions.Nvidia’spricesurgeshowshowfastwinnerscanemerge–andberewarded.Companieswhofallbehindarelikelytostruggleinthisenvironment–partlybecausecentralbankswon’tbeabletorespondeasilywithlowerratesifgrowthweakens,inourview.Wearenotgoingbacktoatimeofcheapandplentifulcapital.NvidiaandtheAImomentYearstogofrom$10billiontocurrentmarketcapitalizationTrillion(U.S.dollar)3210 NvidiaAppleAmazonTeslaMicrosoftTeslaMetaAlphabet051015202530YearsCharttakeaway:Nvidia’ssurgereflectsthebiginvestmentexpectationsasaresultoftheriseofAI.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications•Welikeinfrastructureandindustrialcompaniesexposedtotheinvestmentboom.•High-for-longerpolicyratespromptsustofavorqualityinbothfixedincomeandequities.5BIIM0724U/M-3698250-主题主题233这种转变可能会采取几种截然不同的路径中的任何一种：例如，它可能会2102102005201020152020图表要点：一些美国公司股票的价值现在超过了一些国家的整个基准指数，表明了它们如何能够主导广泛的指数敞口。这强调了为2005201020152020图表要点：一些美国公司股票的价值现在超过了一些国家的整个基准指数，表明了它们如何能够主导广泛的指数敞口。这强调了为什么投资者必须深思熟虑地承担风险。此信息无意作为投资任何特定资产类别或策略的建议，也无意作为对未来业绩的承诺（估计）。不可能直接投资于指数。指数表现不考虑费用。资料来源：贝莱德投资研究所，数市值。用于英国和德国股票市场的指数代理：MSCI英国和6适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资者和合格客户。6BIM0724U/M-3698250-6/16Theme2Theme2LeaningThetransformationcouldtakeanyofseveralverydifferentpaths:itcouldleadtoabroadproductivityboomortoAIwinnersbecomingovervalued,forexample.Investorsmayfeeltemptedtositonthesidelinesandawaitclarity–especiallygiventheattractivereturnsfromholdingcash.Yetweseebiggerrewardsforleaningintoriskinthisenvironment.WethinkmarketsarelikelytokeeprewardingperceivedAIwinnersinthenextsixto12months–regardlessofwherethetransformationleadslongerterm.Wethinkinvestorsshouldtakeriskmoredeliberatelynow,acrossmultipledimensions.First,considerthetimehorizon.Wehavemostconvictionaboutthenearterm.WethinklargetechnologycompaniesinvestingheavilyintheAIbuildout,chipproducersandfirmssupplyingkeyinputslikeenergyandutilitiescankeepdoingwell.That’swhyweleanintotheconcentratedAIscenario.Seepages8-9.Beyondtech,welikesectorssuchasindustrialsandmaterialsthatarealsosettobenefitintheoriskSecond,bedeliberateinchoosingthetypeofriskexposure.Afewwinner-takes-allcompanieshavedrivenU.S.equitygainsthisyear.Wedon’tseetheconcentrationofequityperformanceasaproblemasmegacapshavedeliveredonearnings.YetweactivelychoosetoleanmoreheavilyintoAIthanbenchmarkindexweights.TwobigU.S.techfirmseachhaveamarketcapitalizationlargerthantheentireUKorGermanbenchmarkstockindexes.Seethechart.Third,bedeliberateaboutblendingdifferentsourcesofreturnacrosspublicandprivatemarkets.Wethinkbothactivestrategiesandprivatemarketsplayabiggerrolenow–andseeprivatemarketsasawaytogainaccesstotheearlyjourneysoffirmssettowininapotentiallyrapidtransformation.Wealsoseebroaderopportunitiesinprivatemarketsthanpublicones.That’sespeciallytrueinaworldwhereelevateddebtlimitstheabilityofgovernmenttoinvestininfrastructure.Still,privatemarketsarecomplexandnotsuitableforallinvestors.Trillions(U.S.dollar)CompanieslargerthancountrystockmarketsMarketcapitalizationofselectU.S.companiesandstockindexes,2005-2432102005201020152020MicrosoftAppleUKGermanyCharttakeaway:SomeU.S.companystocksarenowlargerinvaluethantheentirebenchmarkindexofsomenations,showinghowtheycandominatebroadindexexposures.Thisemphasizeswhyinvestorsmustbedeliberatewiththeirrisk-taking.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications•Weleanintoanabove-benchmarkexposuretotheAItheme.Wealsolikesectorssuchastech,industrials,energyandmaterials.•Thisisanenvironmentthatfavorsprivatemarketsandblendingsourcesofreturns.6BIIM0724U/M-3698250-主题3主题3潮不同的——或“多分支的”结果。这意味我们相信，由于我们面临着截然不同的世界状况，积极的态度是关键。”实际GDP实际GDP201520202025203020352040适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资者和合格客户。7BIM0724U/M-3698250-7/16Theme3Theme3SpottingthenextwaveWeareinaworldwheremultiple,starklydifferent–or“polyfurcated”–outcomesarepossible.Thismeanswecannolongerviewtheoutlookintermsofslightdeviationsaroundacentraloutcome.Weneedtolookatwholenewwaysofhowthewavesoftransformationcouldreshapetheeconomyandassetreturnsahead.Distributionsareausefulwaytothinkaboutthis.Acentralbasecasemeantasingledistributionwassufficientinthepastfordescribingpotentialoutcomes.Wethinklookingattheworldinmultipledistributions–withverylittleoverlapbetweenthem–isabetterwayofcharacterizingthepossiblescaleofthewavesoftransformationahead.WeshowtwodistinctbranchesforU.S.GDPwithdistributionsaroundthemtoillustratethis.Seethechart.Diverginggrowthpicturesarejustoneexampleoftheverydifferentwaysinwhichtheeconomycouldreconfigure.Atransformationpotentiallyonaparwithpasttechnologicalrevolutionscouldseeentiresectorsrevamped.Itcouldmeanaworldthatlooksverydifferentfromthelowgrowth,lowinflationenvironmentthatdominatedinthedecadeaftertheglobalfinancialcrisis.Suchprofoundchangescouldmakeitnecessarytorethinkwhatalong-termanchorforassetallocationlookslike.Whatdoesthismeaninpractice?Investorsshouldlookforwherethenextwaveofinvestmentopportunitymaycome–andbereadytooverhaulportfolioallocationstocaptureit.Thisisnotonlyaboutthenextsixmonthsoryear,butaboutrecognizingthepossibilityofverydifferentfuturestatesoftheworld.OnthenextpagewelayoutthreephasesofAIevolutiontohelptrackthepathofglobaltransformation.Webelieveanactiveapproachiskeyaswefaceverydifferentstatesoftheworld.”HelenJewellChiefInvestmentOfficerEMEA,FundamentalEquities–BlackRockStarklydifferentoutcomesStylizedviewoftwodifferentU.S.GDPoutcomesBroadproductivityConstrainedgrowth201520202025203020352040Charttakeaway:Investingtodaymeansthinkingabouthowtheworldcanlookstarklydifferentinthefuture–withcompletelydifferentoutcomes–ratherthanconsideringonlydeviationsaroundacentraloutcome.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications•Awiderangeofoutcomesmeansstandingreadytooverhaulportfolioallocationstocaptureopportunitiesfromprofoundchanges.•Investorsmayneedtorethinkwhatalong-termanchorforassetallocationlookslike.BIIM0724U/M-3698250-焦点焦点——人工智能人工智能正在快速发展…人工智能的巨大力量——在很大程度上仍是美国的故事——今年推动了标准普尔的核心，可能会在即将到来的投资浪潮中占据很大一部分。我们相信，人工智能可以在大多数结果中继续推动回报。我们没有看到科技泡沫:盈利和基本面支撑着当前的估值。典型的例子是：到目前为止，英伟达的预期盈利与其股价的飙升保持同步。我们认为理解人工智能如何从这里进化是人工智能构建些大型科技公司正在竞相投资数据中心以确保这种能力。我们正处于这个阶段的开始。早期的赢家已经出现，包括那些科技公司、芯片生产商以及提供能源、公用事业、材料和房地产等关键投入的公司。然而，建设面临着挑战，特别是电网能否足政策和监管也可能会抑制建设。例如，如果定者可能会介入。关于人工智能使用的规则可能会影响其采用。随着铜、铝和锂等金属和矿物的需求增长，供应瓶颈也可能会减缓进展——作为低碳转型的投入，这些金属和矿人工智能投资范围扩大2022-2030年数据中心电力需求占美16%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%估计国20222024202620282030图表要点：为大型语言模型等人工智能应用提供支持的数据中心的电力需求将会增长，但速度尚不确定。要满足这些需求，可能需要对电网和可再生能源进行大规模投资。前瞻性估计可能不会实现。资料来源：贝莱德投资研究所、国际能源署(IEA)、高盛、BGIF、美国银行、施耐德、Semianalytics、伯恩斯坦、麦肯锡、波士顿咨询集团和贝莱德基本股票团队，2024年5月。注：图表显示数据中心2022年电力需求占美国总电力需求的比例。数据中心电力需求包括来自传统数据中心和人工智能(AI)计算/专用AI数据中心的电力需求，不包括加密货币和数据传输网络的消耗。在美国、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亚公开分发。适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资8者和合格客户。8BIM0724U/M-3698250-8/16Focus-AIFocus-AIAI’srapidbuildoutnow…TheAIjuggernaut–stilllargelyaU.S.story-haspoweredtheS&P500thisyear.WethinkAIiscentraltothetransformation–andcouldmakeupalargepartofthecominginvestmentwave.WebelieveAIcankeepdrivingreturnsacrossmostoutcomes.Wedon’tseeatechbubble:earningsandfundamentalssupportcurrentvaluations.Caseinpoint:Nvidia’sforwardearningshavekeptpacewithitsrocketingsharepricesofar.WethinkanunderstandingofhowAIcouldevolvefromhereiskey.Weseethreedistinctphases.1AIbuildoutAIreliesonvastcomputingpower,sosomelargetechnologyfirmsareracingtoinvestindatacenterstosecurethatpower.We’reatthestartofthisphase.Earlywinnersarealreadyemerging,includingthosetechfirms,chipproducersandfirmssupplyingkeyinputslikeenergy,utilities,materialsandrealestate.Yetthebuildoutfaceschallenges,notablywhetherthepowergridcangrowfastenough.AI’spowerneedsareexpectedtogrowincomingyears,evenwithfurtherenergyefficiency.Seethechart.Policyandregulationcouldputthebrakesonbuildout,too.Forexample,policymakersmaystepinifdatacentergrowthpushesuplocalenergyprices.AndrulesontheuseofAIcouldimpactadoption.Supplybottleneckscouldalsoslowprogressasdemandgrowsformetalsandmineralslikecopper,aluminumandlithium–alreadyinhighdemandasinputsforthelow-carbontransition.2AIinvestmentbroadensHereweseeinvestmentbroadeningtofirmslookingtoharnessAI.Weseesomeofthatalready,especiallyinhealthcare.Itandothersectorslikefinancialsandcommunicationservicescouldbenefit,potentiallyliftingeconomicgrowth.Yetbothphases1and2couldbeinflationary:buildingAIandretoolingcreatesextrademandbeforeanysupply-sideorproductivitybenefitsarise.Wedon’tthinkmarketsorcentralbanksappreciatethatyet.MassiveenergyandinvestmentneedsDatacenterpowerdemandasashareoftotalU.S.demand,2022-2030Shareoftotalpowerdemand16%14%12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2%0%--Estimates—-IEAestimate20222024202620282030Charttakeaway:ThepowerneedsfordatacentersthatfeedAIapplicationslikelargelanguagemodelsaresettogrow–butthepaceisuncertain.Meetingthoseneedscouldrequiremassiveinvestmentinpowergridsandrenewableenergy.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications•AI’sbuildoutcouldinitiallybeinflationaryasdemandforenergyandcommoditiessurges.•Earlywinnerscouldincludelargetechfirms,chipmakersandenergyandutilityfirms–beforebenefitsexpandtoothersectors.8BIIM0724U/M-3698250-焦点焦点——人工智能…以后可以提高生产率在这个非常不确定的阶段，人工智能可以使经济体以相同数量的资本、劳动力和能源生产更多产品，因为人工智能支持的创新可能平衡人工智能的电力需求。技术创新以前就做到了这一点。该图表显示，近十年来，计算机的广泛采用使每小时的平人工智能最终可以帮助经济更快增长并缓尚不确定。人工智能竞赛中的资本可能会被错误配置。据估计，人工智能对美国年度经济增长的推动作用范围为0.1至1.5个百分点。我们发现低端更为现实——这将成果只有在人工智能能力得到充分部署后才能实现。这可能需要数年时间，然后是典型的滞后。蒸汽机花了近一个世纪的时间才提高生产力。年才获得回报。这一阶段在一年内开始并非与早期阶段相比，这一阶段的潜在赢家并不那么明确。它可能只是拥有关键技术的公司的一部分。或者社会的某些部分：例如，如果人工智能提高了工人的生产力，工资可能会上涨——整个经济都会广泛感受到这种好处。无论如何，人工智能很可能会刺激跨部门的工人的广泛重新分配。即使存在这种不确定性，未来巨大回报的潜力也支持了现在人工智能最终可以带来广泛的生产力提升——但道路是不确定的。”西蒙娜·帕拉瓦尼·梅林贝莱德多资产策略与解决方案联席主管美国IT投资率和生产率增长，1970-24%信息技术投资4%3%2%1%3%2%1%0%生产力增长197019801990200020102020图表要点：20世纪70年代及以后对信息技术的投资不断增加，为美国的生产力带来了有意义的提升，但只是有滞后性。该图表显示了美国历史生产力增长情况以及信息技术处理设备和软件的投资在美国、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亚公开分发。适用于其他获许可国家的机构、专业、合格投资9者和合格客户。9BIM0724U/M-3698250-9/16FocusFocus–AIproductivitylater3ProductivityboomInthisveryuncertainphase,AIcouldenableeconomiestoproducemorewiththesameamountofcapital,labor–andenergyasAI-enabledinnovationpotentiallybalancesoutAI’spowerneeds.Technologicalinnovationshavedonethatbefore.Thechartshowsbroadcomputeradoptiondroveupaverageoutputperhourbyover1percentagepointfornearlyadecade.AIcouldeventuallyhelpeconomiesgrowfasterandeaseinflationpressure,inourview.ThesizeandspreadofproductivitygainsfromAIareuncertain.CapitalcouldbemisallocatedintheAIrace.