全球农业排放行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.5

POLITICS

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SOCIETYAgricultureemissionsworldwideCHAPTER

01OverviewAnnualgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsworldwidefrom1990to2022,bysector(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)GlobalGHGemissions1990-2022,bysectorWasteBuildingsProcessesFuelExploitationAgricultureIndustrialCombustionTransportPowerIndustry60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,00003Description:Theglobalpowerindustryhasconsistentlybeenthebiggestoverallcontributortoglobalgreenhousegasemissionsforthemorethan30years.In2022,thepowerindustryproduced15GtCO₂e,whichwasalmostdoubletheemissionsoftheglobaltransportationsector.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));IEA;VarioussourcesDistributionofgreenhousegasemissionsworldwidein2021,bysubsectorShareofglobalgreenhousegasemissions2021,bysubsectorShareofemissions0%5%10%15%20%25%Coal(electricity)RoadtransportationOtherindustriesGas(electricity)Livestock21%12%7%7%7%Oil&gasproductionCrops6%6%Iron&steel5%5%CementChemicals4%4%4%Landfills&wasteResidentialbuildingsCoalmining2%4Description:Globalnetgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswere50.1billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂e)in2021.ThelargestoverallcontributortoglobalGHGemissionsthatyearwascoal-firedelectricity,with21percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021;Basedontotalemissionsof50.1GtCO₂e;*Agriculturefuelcombustionemissionsaccountedforlessthanonepercent.Figuresmaynottotal100percentduetorounding.

ReadmoreSource(s):RhodiumGroupAnnualmethane(CH4)emissionsworldwidefrom1990to2022,bysector(inmillionmetrictonsofCO₂equivalent)Methaneemissionsworldwide1990-2022,bysectorAgricultureFuelExploitationWasteBuildingsTransportIndustrialCombustionProcessesPowerIndustry12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00005Description:Agricultureisthesinglelargestcontributortoglobalmethaneemissions.In2022,agriculturalprocesses,suchentericfermentationandmanuremanagement,emitted4.6billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂)methane.Thisaccountedforroughly41percentoftotalmethaneemissionsthatyear.Agricultureemissionshaverisenby13percentworldwidesince1990.Meanwhile,methaneemissionsfromfuelexploitationandthewastesectorhaverisenbymorethan50[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));VarioussourcesDistributionofmethane(CH4)emissionsworldwidein2022,bysectorGlobalshareofmethaneemissions2022,bysectorTransport0.3%IndustrialCombustion0.2%Processes0.1%PowerIndustry0.1%Buildings2.8%Waste23.1%Agriculture40.6%FuelExploitation32.8%6Description:Agriculture-relatedactivitiesandprocesses,suchentericfermentation,wereresponsibleforroughly41percentofglobalmethaneemissionsin2022.Agriculture,togetherwithfuelexploitationandthewastesector,accountedforaround97percentofglobalmethaneemissionsin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));VarioussourcesDistributionofnitrousoxide(N2O)emissionsworldwidein2022,bysectorGlobalshareofnitrousoxideemissions2022,bysectorWaste4.8%Transport4.2%Processes15.5%PowerIndustry3.2%IndustrialCombustion1%FuelExploitation0.3%Agriculture68.3%Buildings2.7%7Description:In2022,almost70percentofglobalnitrousoxide(N2O)emissionswerelinkedtotheagriculturesector.Amajorsourceofagriculture-relatedN2Oemissionsistheuseofsyntheticfertilizers.N2Oisahighlypotentgreenhousegas,withaꢀglobalwarmingpotential(GWP)almost300timesgreaterthancarbondioxideovera100-yearperiod.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));VarioussourcesCHAPTER

02CommoditiesProductionvolumeofselectedfoodcropsworldwidefrom1961to2021(inmillionmetrictons)Productionvolumeofselectedcropsworldwide1961-2021Cocoa,beansCoffee,greenOilpalmfruitRice,paddySoybeansSugarcane2,5002,0001,5001,000500019611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920219Description:Sugarcanewasthemostproducedcropworldwidein2021,atapproximately1.86billionmetrictons.Thequantityofsugarcaneproducedannuallyhasincreasedmassivelysince1961,whenroughly450millionmetrictonswasproduced.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1961to2021Source(s):FAOAreaharvestedforselectedfoodcropsworldwidefrom1961to2021(inmillionhectares)Areaharvestedforselectedfoodcropsworldwide1961-2021Cocoa,beansCoffee,greenOilpalmfruitSoybeansSugarcane140120100806040200196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019202110Description:Theharvestedareaforsoybeansworldwidehasincreasedsubstantiallysincethe1960s.In1961theareafromwhichsoybeanswasgatheredwas23.82millionhectaresbutby2021theareahadincreasedtoover129.5millionhectares.Thishascoincidedwiththeriseinsoybeanproductionforlivestockfeed.Theareaharvestedforothercropssuchasoilpalmfruit,sugarcane,andcoffeehavealsoincreasedconsiderablytomeetgrowingdemand.Thishashadanadverseimpactonthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960to2021Source(s):FAOMeatconsumptionworldwidefrom1990to2021,bymeattype*(inmilliontons)Meatconsumptionworldwide1990-2021,bytypeBeefandvealPorkSheepandgoatmeatPoultrymeat35030025020015010050011Description:In2021,around132.3milliontonsofpoultrymeatwereconsumedworldwide,makingitthemostconsumedtypeofmeatglobally.Porkwasthesecondmostconsumedmeatworldwide,followedbybeefandveal.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2021;*Meatconsumptionismeasuredinmillionmetrictonsofcarcassweight(exceptforpoultryexpressedasreadytocookweight).Carcassweighttoretailweightconversionfactorsare:0.7forbeefandveal,0.78for[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):FAO;OECDGlobalconsumptionofagriculturalfertilizerfrom1965to2021,bynutrient(inmillionmetrictons)Globalfertilizerconsumption1965-2021,bynutrientNitrogen(N)Phosphoruspentoxide(P₂O)Potassiumoxide(K₂O)2502001501005040.538.437.4146.4334.8145.3636.3144.8437.6246.4437.3145.4728.226.148.9847.8124.3222.0732.8120.6430.9741.8525.1533.5236.5823.8331.9135.9220.6725.6915.7620.88112.362020106.33

107.03

105.11

104.85

108.93109.17202199.56201090.64200511.6316.0218.6678.22199582.06200076.78199070.05198560.49198042.82197531.421970019652015201620172018201912Description:In1965,theconsumptionofnitrogenfertilizersstoodatsome46.3millionmetrictons.By2021,thisamounthadincreasedto195.38milliontons.Inthatlatteryear,nitrogenfertilizersaccountedforaround56percentofthetotalglobalconsumption,whereasphosphateandpotashfertilizersheldsharesof24and20percent,respectively.Mineralfertilizersarewidelyusedinagriculturetoimprovesoilfertilityandachievehighercropyields.Theytypicallycontainoneormoreof[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1965and2021Source(s):InternationalFertilizerIndustryAssociationCHAPTER

03GlobalemissionsGreenhousegasemissionsonagriculturallandsworldwidefrom1990to2021,byregion(inbillionmetrictonsofCO₂equivalent)Globalgreenhousegasemissionsonagriculturallands1990-2021,byregionAsiaAfricaLatinAmerica&CaribbeanEuropeNorthAmericaOceania4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0199020002010202114Description:Asiaproducesthelargestemissionsfromagricultureworldwide.In2021,theequivalentof3.97billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxide(GtCO₂e)wereproducedonagriculturallandsinAsia.Thisrepresentedroughly36percentofglobalagricultureemissions.AfricaandLatinAmericawerethenextlargestemitters,withapproximately2.4GtCO₂eproducedonagriculturallandsinbothregions.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2021Source(s):FAOAnnualagriculturesectorgreenhousegasemissionsinselectedcountriesworldwidefrom1990to2022(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)AgriculturesectorGHGemissionsworldwide1990-2022,byselectcountryChinaIndiaUnitedStatesBrazilEU-27IndonesiaPakistan1,2001,000800600400200015Description:Chinaistheworld'slargestsourceofagriculturalgreenhousegases(GHG),emitting893millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(MtCO₂e)in2022.Thiswasanoveralldecreaseofroughlythreepercent,relativeto1990levels.Bycomparison,agriculturalGHGemissionsinBrazilsurgedbyroughly79percentduringthisperiod.Indiahasalsoseenitsagricultureemissionsrisedramaticallysince1990.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));IEACountrieswiththelargestagriculturalemissionsworldwidein2021,bycomponent(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)Globalemissionsfromagricultureinselectedcountries2021,bycomponentEmissionsinMtCO₂eFarmgate600Landuse02004008001,0001,2001,400BrazilIndiaChinaDRCongoIndonesiaUnitedStatesPakistanCanadaArgentinaMyanmar16Description:Brazilhadthelargestoverallemissionsfromagriculturallandprocessesin2021,atover1.2billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂e).Emissionsfromlanduse,suchasfromdeforestation,accountedforthelargestshareofagricultureemissionsintheSouthAmericancountrythatyear.Bycomparison,themajorityofagriculture-relatedemissionsinChinaandIndiawerefromwithinthefarm-gate.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021Source(s):FAOAnnualmethane(CH)emissionsfromagriculturalprocessesworldwidein2022,byleadingcountry(inmillionmetrictonsofCO₂equivalent)Agriculturemethaneemissionsworldwide2022,bymajorcountryEmissionsinMtCO₂e0100200300400500600700ChinaIndia637.6560.9Brazil447UnitedStatesPakistanIndonesiaArgentinaBangladeshEthiopia255.5198.2118.6104100.790.789.2Mexico17Description:Chinawastheworld'slargestmethaneemitterfromagriculturalprocessesin2022.China,whichisnowtheworld'slargestproduceroffood,emittedover600millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(MtCO₂e)methanefromprocessessuchasentericfermentation.IndiaandBrazilfollowedwithemissionsofroughly560and450MtCO₂e,respectively.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EDGAR/JRC;EuropeanCommission;Expert(s)(Crippaetal.(2023));VarioussourcesCHAPTER

04SegmentsEmissionsfromagricultureandforestlandworldwidein2021,bycomponent(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)Agricultureandforestlandemissionsworldwide2021,bycomponentEmissionsinMtCO₂e-3,000EntericFermentation-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,000LivestockmanureManureManagementBurning-CropresiduesCropResiduesRiceCultivationSyntheticFertilizersDrainedorganicsoils(N2O)Drainedorganicsoils(CO2)On-farmenergyuseSavannafiresFiresinorganicsoilsFiresinhumidtropicalforests19Description:Entericfermentationandnetforestconversion(deforestation)werethelargestsourcesofemissionsfromagriculturallandin2021,witheachresponsibleforroughlythreebillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂e).Thisaccountedformorethan50percentofglobalꢀemissionsonagriculturalland.GHGemissionsgeneratedwithinthefarm-gatetotaled7.8GtCO₂e.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2021Source(s):FAOGreenhousegasemissionsonagriculturallandsworldwidefrom1990to2021,bycomponent(inmillionmetrictonsofCO₂equivalent)Globalagricultureemissions1990-2021,bycomponentNetforestconversionRicecultivationSavannafiresEntericfermentationSyntheticfertilizersCropresiduesLivestockmanureOn-farmenergyuseFiresinhumidtropicalforestsDrainedorganicsoilsManuremanagementFiresinorganicsoilsBurningcropresidues12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000199020002010202120Description:Netforestconversionhasconsistentlybeenthelargestsourceofgreenhousegasemissionsonagriculturallandsworldwide.Entericfermentationisthesecond-largestsourceofemissions,withdigestiveprocessesfromlivestockhavingemittedroughly2.9billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂e)in2021.Whileemissionsfromforestconversionsawanoveralldecreaseofroughly31percentbetween1990and2021,globalentericfermentationemissionsincreasedbyabout[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2021Source(s):FAOGreenhousegasemissionsfromlivestockworldwidefrom1990to2021(inbillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)GloballivestockGHGemissions1990-20214.34.24.14.03.93.83.73.63.51990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202121Description:Globalemissionsfromlivestockreachedanestimatedhighof4.2billionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GtCO₂e)in2021.Livestockemissionshaverisenbyalmost20percentsince2000.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;FiguresareestimatesSource(s):FAOEmissionsofmethane(CH4)producedbycattleworldwidefrom1990to2021(inmillionmetrictons)Methaneemissionsproducedbycattleworldwide1990-202174.073.072.071.070.069.068.067.066.065.064.022Description:Globalmethane(CH4)emissionsproducedfromentericfermentationincattlewereestimatedat73.5millionmetrictonsin2021.Annualemissionsfromcattlehaverisenbymorethan10percentsincetheturnofcentury.ꢀEntericfermentationisapartofthedigestiveprocessinanimalssuchascattle,sheep,andbuffalo.Thisprocessproducesmethane,whichisapotentgreenhousegaswithaglobalwarmingpotentialroughly30timesgreaterthancarbondioxide.Entericfermentationis[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2021Source(s):FAOEstimatedmethane(CH)emissionsbymajormeatanddairycompaniesworldwideasof2021(inmillionmetrictons)Methaneemissionsofselectedmeatanddairycompaniesworldwide2021Emissionsinmillionmetrictons0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5JBS(Brazil)Marfrig(Brazil)4.791.88Tyson(U.S.)1.57DairyFarmersofAmerica(U.S.)Lactalis(France)0.990.520.490.420.390.330.320.28Fonterra(NewZealand)Yili(China)Saputo(Canada)Arla(Denmark)Nestlé(Switzerland)FrieslandCampina(Netherlands)WHGroup(China)0.260.23Danone(France)DMKGroup(Germany)DanishCrown(Denmark)0.160.1523Description:Combinedmethane(CH)emissionsof15oftheworld'slargestmeatanddairycompanieswereestimatedatalmost13millionmetrictonsofmethaneasof2021.BrazilianmeatprocessingcompanyJBShadthehighestmethaneemissionsofthegroup,at4.8millionmetrictons.Marfrig,anotherBrazilianmeatprocessingcompany,followedwithemissionsof1.9millionmetrictons.Methaneisasignificantcontributortoglobalwarmingand80timesmorepotentthancarbondioxide.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020and2021Source(s):IATP;TheChangingMarketsFoundationCHAPTER

05OutlookProjectedchangeinbaselineanthropogenicmethane(CH)emissionsworldwidefrom2020to2030,bysubsectorandmodel(inmillionmetrictonsperyear)Globalprojectedchangeinmethaneemissions2020-2030,bysubsectorChangeinemissionsinMt/yrEPAIIASA4-4-202681012SolidWasteLivestockGasWastewaterOilRiceCoal25Description:Globalmethaneemissionsfromlivestockactivitiesareprojectedtoincreaseby5.7millionmetrictonsperyearor7.1millionmetrictonsperyear,accordingtoIIASAandEPAmodels,respectively.Meanwhile,bothmodelsestimatethatannualemissionsfromricecultivationwillseelittlechangeintheperiod,orpossiblydecrease.Whilebothmodelsestimatethatmethaneemissionsfromsolidwastewillchangebyroughlyninemetrictonsperyear,estimatesfortheenergysectordiffer[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020Source(s):ClimateandCleanAirCoalition;UNEP;VarioussourcesProjectedagriculture-relatedgreenhousegasemissionsworldwidefrom2020to2050,byscenario(inbilliontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)GlobalagricultureGHGemissionpathways2020-2050,byscenarioBusinessasusualDoaswepromisedWeachievethegoal14121086420202020252030203520402045205026Description:Undera'business-as-usual'scenario,globalgreenhousegasemissionsfromagricultureareprojectedtodropbyalmost30percentby2050,relativeto2020levels,toroughly8.7billiontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(GTCO₂e).

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020to2022;figuresincludelivestock,crops,andlandusechange.Source(s):WorldDataLabAgriculture-relatedgreenhousegasemissionsintheUnitedStatesandChinaundera"business-as-usual"scenariofrom2020to2021,withprojectionsuntil2050(inmillionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent)GHGemissionprojectionsfromagricultureintheU.S.andChina2020-2050ChinaUnitedStat