主题策略-策略专题报告：地产链拥挤度如何

请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明地产链拥挤度如何？有所修复，但市净率分位持续走低，仅建筑装饰受益于基建的高增速有一定修复。而市盈率和市净率出现明显背离的原因在于，房地产由于处日地产成交额占比为6.12%，较整体中枢1.5%明显上行；地产链为仓位角度：地产链的陆股通持仓处于低位，Q1的基金持仓处于低配。相关报告相关报告 4 3.微观流动性 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 表1：近一年行业换手率分位数变化 9表2：A股资金周度变动情况 表3：行业资金变动情况 表4：近四周陆股通行业流动情况 表6：主要行业/主题ETF份额变动情况 表7：近四周行业融资净流动情况 表8：近4周IPO和定增的行业变 表9：近四周行业增减持变动情况 建筑材料建筑装饰银行轻工制造纺织服饰农林牧渔非银金融交通运输商贸零售通信钢铁综合社会服务环保计算机食品饮料基础化工传媒美容护理石油石化有色金属公用事业机械设备国防军工电力设备汽车煤炭医药生物家用电器周一 周二周五周涨幅周三周四建筑材料建筑装饰银行轻工制造纺织服饰农林牧渔非银金融交通运输商贸零售通信钢铁综合社会服务环保计算机食品饮料基础化工传媒美容护理石油石化有色金属公用事业机械设备国防军工电力设备汽车煤炭医药生物家用电器周一 周二周五周涨幅周三周四上周地产链相关行业指数表现一骑绝尘，TOP4为房地产（12.65%）、建筑材料短期关心的问题即是地产链还能涨吗？50(5)50(5)2018年以来地产链整体的市盈率和市净率产链的市盈率有所修复，但市净率分位持续走低，仅建筑装饰受益于有一定修复。而市盈率和市净率出现明显背离的原因在…………综合房地产汽车机械设备农林牧渔计算机煤炭非银金融钢铁基础化工商贸零售美容护理交通运输国防军工家用电器医药生物环保银行轻工制造传媒食品饮料电力设备通信公用事业建筑装饰纺织服饰社会服务食品饮料综合房地产汽车机械设备农林牧渔计算机煤炭非银金融钢铁基础化工商贸零售美容护理交通运输国防军工家用电器医药生物环保银行轻工制造传媒食品饮料电力设备通信公用事业建筑装饰纺织服饰社会服务食品饮料300250200500max■now2010年以来市盈率分位数min 51474745474740394039373629242422290807060403020086420■now2010年以来市净率分位数47474545202010年以来市盈率分位数100%80%60%40%0%房地产建筑材料建筑装饰银行100%80%40%0%房地产建筑材料建筑装饰银行2010年以来市净率分位数80%60%40%20%0%房地产建筑材料建筑装饰银行滚动3年市净率分位数100%80%60%40%0%房地产建筑材料建筑装饰银行9.00%6.00%3.00%0.00%-3.00%ERP‘+标准差σ‘-标准差σ‘+标准差2σ‘-标准差2σ移动均值房地产（申万）（右）70006000400030002000ERP‘+标准差σ‘-标准差σ‘+标准差2σ‘-标准差2σ移动均值建筑材料（申万）（右）400020000.00%ERP‘+标准差σ‘-标准差σ‘+标准差2σ‘-标准差2σ移动均值建筑装饰（申万）（右）4500400025002000房地产/全AMA5地产链/全AMA5右8%6%0%25%20%15%0%100%80%60%40%20%0%房地产/全A2010以来分位数MA5地产链/全A2010以来分位数MA5100%80%60%40%20%0%表1：近一年行业换手率分位数变化石油石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔生物商贸零售社会服务美容护理计算机传媒通信电子环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料建筑装饰房地产银行非银金融2024-05-1782%86%88%87%75%66%58%47%47%54%66%71%73%72%73%67%56%58%63%53%48%45%38%27%36%60%71%76%80%83%75%68%55%46%38%27%25%25%24%18%17%20%24%24%31%34%41%51%58%67%21%29%34%31%35%32%25%19%20%20%22%23%24%22%19%16%12%12%13%9%8%10%7%6%11%13%10%13%17%17%21%24%26%24%23%29%43%36%30%30%17%3%2%4%2%4%5%8%12%15%26%34%37%38%35%34%32%31%38%40%36%34%35%35%48%53%56%55%52%49%46%42%41%35%24%21%19%22%40%56%66%71%64%47%28%15%12%9%10%11%15%13%17%19%19%15%13%13%12%11%94%92%90%87%81%74%63%45%37%43%41%44%47%53%60%71%71%64%51%30%12%10%11%17%25%25%18%21%22%20%23%24%24%14%7%3%5%10%21%26%35%28%10%4%3%2%2%1%1%0%69%81%87%85%80%76%55%29%20%14%8%3%4%6%6%9%10%9%9%5%2%2%2%1%2%3%3%3%3%5%7%8%8%6%5%5%5%9%15%29%23%21%14%7%1%0%0%1%1%2%71%76%76%81%84%88%94%97%96%94%89%69%54%59%60%67%75%80%68%66%62%55%48%52%46%41%52%70%71%69%73%68%43%35%28%15%10%27%49%76%95%98%97%95%92%83%67%51%38%28%53%52%53%48%43%44%42%39%36%38%34%35%51%67%68%68%63%43%19%10%4%4%5%6%6%10%11%13%7%5%5%3%3%6%8%14%17%27%35%44%54%60%58%50%49%56%62%52%43%37%80%75%67%63%50%50%51%45%38%34%30%28%27%25%26%29%27%22%20%15%13%28%31%38%51%56%53%53%43%42%47%39%35%32%14%3%4%8%21%38%61%76%75%68%66%59%58%62%65%69%77%82%86%87%89%92%92%91%90%87%77%72%62%60%60%70%79%85%92%97%98%99%99%99%98%96%96%93%88%82%81%76%75%83%89%93%97%99%98%97%95%86%52%30%6%3%2%87%81%77%75%76%73%86%88%84%76%65%50%46%47%47%48%42%32%27%28%33%62%87%94%98%99%99%98%97%85%67%45%25%9%5%6%22%44%81%91%94%95%94%87%84%68%57%55%30%40%50%51%55%54%52%51%58%65%73%84%96%97%93%91%78%70%70%68%64%58%60%56%61%65%62%58%65%56%42%39%39%30%28%31%39%39%27%23%20%10%5%10%13%16%24%25%26%25%20%31%38%38%33%27%25%20%30%35%49%58%57%56%54%49%39%37%32%32%28%19%17%14%8%6%8%10%15%33%38%42%48%42%29%22%15%7%10%27%30%30%34%31%12%5%2%1%1%6%8%8%7%7%9%5%5%6%8%10%14%22%27%31%42%44%47%55%52%35%27%14%6%5%6%8%9%10%11%20%21%22%17%18%15%20%24%17%12%8%4%4%3%2%3%3%0%0%1%13%14%21%28%24%15%11%7%4%8%10%9%9%5%2%2%3%10%22%22%18%15%7%2%4%5%6%8%13%15%29%42%37%45%42%31%25%29%21%13%12%9%6%5%6%3%1%0%0%43%35%21%19%20%22%25%29%32%37%35%35%33%30%27%25%27%36%46%54%66%67%66%72%65%68%83%88%87%87%74%53%37%40%42%44%39%31%11%2%2%4%6%12%15%22%28%27%26%32%25%32%40%41%44%36%28%28%35%46%55%63%76%80%79%78%78%74%72%79%81%77%68%62%56%45%39%44%47%48%52%51%49%54%55%65%73%80%75%68%55%46%31%41%48%55%59%62%63%64%79%86%87%88%88%87%83%83%83%79%80%80%84%85%87%84%86%84%83%81%79%77%70%60%54%48%54%56%66%70%73%71%70%67%63%60%61%65%71%75%76%78%85%89%92%92%95%95%94%94%7%6%3%3%2%1%2%4%6%11%15%21%36%41%42%45%46%51%50%44%39%35%14%8%13%10%11%17%26%22%29%32%42%37%37%35%34%23%19%23%27%26%30%31%30%37%38%27%21%18%24%26%28%36%48%57%69%78%76%68%61%53%43%38%40%44%48%54%57%59%65%78%80%80%86%88%85%86%87%87%82%76%79%79%75%63%58%52%54%56%67%87%91%92%94%93%90%84%77%75%52%50%59%75%87%92%93%94%94%90%89%86%82%78%82%90%95%96%97%97%98%96%96%95%94%84%77%59%43%48%58%66%73%76%81%80%80%82%86%87%93%95%96%97%98%98%98%99%99%99%43%41%44%50%52%55%64%68%67%62%59%54%40%30%27%27%24%30%39%49%55%61%63%63%67%69%73%77%81%82%78%70%64%56%48%42%40%43%54%58%67%79%82%83%84%83%77%71%66%65%13%18%24%27%31%40%37%32%29%25%17%14%13%15%19%19%20%20%21%24%37%49%64%69%78%79%75%67%64%55%40%27%17%11%4%5%10%17%26%36%45%39%33%31%29%26%19%14%12%38%43%56%59%62%58%55%52%54%60%67%69%67%68%66%59%52%39%27%11%6%5%6%8%11%9%8%7%15%26%46%75%90%89%87%82%65%23%16%12%13%7%4%3%5%7%10%17%19%12%42%41%33%29%24%23%14%14%14%22%23%19%26%29%32%28%30%28%24%13%9%7%3%1%2%3%0%1%2%5%10%11%13%14%10%7%7%9%19%32%52%57%58%51%59%56%61%61%59%48%53%49%44%29%18%10%8%6%10%19%27%35%45%47%47%42%48%40%34%22%15%6%4%2%1%2%1%4%8%10%14%17%20%14%10%8%5%3%1%2%3%3%3%4%5%10%17%37%56%55%35%30%27%24%20%18%23%26%31%38%46%55%62%65%63%63%58%43%33%16%8%5%3%9%22%25%23%25%19%10%12%16%14%12%12%13%21%22%18%14%10%2%1%4%3%3%2%2%0%1%75%72%71%68%61%52%54%56%62%66%78%81%84%86%85%76%66%57%42%35%36%34%33%34%38%37%40%45%49%49%55%60%69%69%72%73%78%70%66%60%57%44%48%58%64%70%74%79%82%87%88%68%61%50%51%58%61%61%63%67%72%76%77%74%71%66%67%70%70%76%87%85%84%88%86%73%71%73%71%74%89%95%96%97%98%99%99%99%98%97%93%70%64%65%60%59%56%54%44%41%80%77%72%71%59%48%48%49%57%76%83%89%92%91%91%87%81%70%63%52%41%34%31%33%36%51%67%73%78%79%75%74%73%67%64%71%69%63%57%56%42%36%43%55%61%75%86%95%96%97%38%29%27%9%8%24%31%36%42%55%49%41%36%27%21%32%34%40%45%39%35%38%37%38%61%78%94%99%99%95%66%2%2%6%37%46%50%2024-05-102024-04-302024-04-262024-04-192024-04-122024-04-032024-03-292024-03-222024-03-152024-03-082024-03-012024-02-232024-02-082024-02-022024-01-262024-01-192024-01-122024-01-052023-12-292023-12-222023-12-152023-12-082023-12-012023-11-242023-11-172023-11-102023-11-032023-10-272023-10-202023-10-132023-09-282023-09-222023-09-152023-09-082023-09-012023-08-252023-08-182023-08-112023-08-042023-07-282023-07-212023-07-142023-07-072023-06-302023-06-212023-06-162023-06-092023-06-022023-05-26开始走高而出现背离，我们认为主要是在于房地产已经处于相对底部状仓保持趋势一致；而整体超配比来看整体地房地产占比房地产超配比右1.5%1.3%0.9%0.5%-0.7%-0.8%-0.9%-1.1%-1.2%2022/1/312023/1/312024/1/31地产链占比地产链超配比右0.0%-0.5%一级行业持仓占比变化一级行业持仓占比变化8%6%4%2%2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1一级行业持仓超配比变化一级行业持仓超配比变化8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%.2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1DR007%中债国债到期收益率:2年%4.03.53.02.52.00万得全A换手率分位数均值中国:中债国债到期收益率:10年90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%2.53.03.54.04.53.微观流动性发基金保持较低规模，融资端也转向弱流入表2：A股资金周度变动情况分类石油石化石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物商贸零售社会服务美容护理计算机传媒通信电子环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料建筑装饰房地产银行非银金融综合陆股通ETF融资融券股权融资解禁增减持2.00.8-1.6-1.5-0.3----0.00.0--—- 0.5—---0.0-1.0-0.3-- 2.00.8-1.6-1.5-0.3----0.00.0--—- 0.5—---0.0-1.0-0.3---0.0---1.0-0.0------2.2----2.1-2.1-1.91.3-23.5-0.6-1.0-1.0-99.3-0.8-1.1-1.3-1.1-1.37.2-6.1-1.6-23.68.6-3.5-0.45.5-2.40.11.49.6-0.50.1-0.3----- 0.40.18.6-3.5-0.45.5-2.40.11.49.6-0.50.1-0.3----- 0.40.10.00.0--0.10.5—-4.7-7.5-----14.41.5-78.6-3.0-0.3-0.3-1.1-1.1-6.66.6-1.9-9.8-7.1-3.11.5-3.11.5-5.3-10.9-0.6-1.0-0.50.2--5.9-1.0-0.50.2-20.810.420.810.4-4.5-33.4-3.0 -0.35.4-0.8-1.1--0.12.0-0.3---2.5 -0.35.4-0.8-1.1--0.12.0-0.3---2.5--0.1-0.1----3.58.63.58.61.6-25.825.8-3.6-5.4-12.012.03.6-7.0-13.5-0.00.3-- -0.00.3--沪股通净买入亿元深股通净买入亿元陆股通净买入沪股通净买入亿元深股通净买入亿元陆股通净买入亿元2,0006005006005001,6004001,40030020020001,000800-100600-200400-300-400200-4000-50002020-06-192021-06-192022-06-192023-06-192020-06-192021-06-192022-06-192023-06-192020-06-192021-06-192022-06-192023-06-19表4：近四周陆股通行业流动情况申万一级20240426202404302024051020240517近四周合计趋势图银行28.557.325.833.534.796.3食品饮料38.741.4-1.890.1有色金属46.4-3.170.0非银金融21.032.00.965.821.147.0-13.1-1.153.9-6.320.843.9房地产-0.93.527.6农林牧渔5.36.321.8基础化工-0.67.0-2.1公用事业2.75.4-2.6交通运输0.4机械设备5.5-9.94.2轻工制造4.46.4建筑材料4.65.1煤炭5.15.02.2-0.3石油石化2.5--11.9-5.96.4环保-0.85.0-0.65.4-1.4-15.95.2纺织服饰-0.64.0-6.95.8-社会服务0.0-0.40.5-0.40.00.4建筑装饰-5.7-2.75.8-1.02.3-1.4-3.3-1.0商贸零售-0.9-1.7-1.20.5-3.3计算机3.5-6.3-11.56.6-7.8钢铁-5.7-2.4-1.4-8.1传媒-7.7-12.3-15.5-3.1-38.62,0001,50002,0001,5000偏股基金亿份平均认购时间天募资额/偏股基金亿份平均认购时间天募资额/募集目标右4030200100%80%60%40%20%0%2024/04/262024/04/35004003002000-100-200偏股型基金份额收盘价60,00056,00054,00052,0002021/09/102022/09/102023/09/103,8003,4003,2003,00002020/1/12021/1/12022/1/1202302020/1/12021/1/12022/1/120232024/4/262024/4/302024/5/102024/5/170-50-100股票型债券型商品型货币型跨境型宽基指数2024/4/26ETF份额2024/4/302024/5/102024/5/17ETF变动2024/4/262024/4/302024/5/102024/5/17上证50511.56359.92300.75863.622145.591678.60511.32237.87155.71518.76367.13321.71865.472158.201682.71509.46239.45160.14502.70357.11302.82867.202138.501687.36508.43237.43176.32487.11354.94295.18865.722121.701691.85508.04245.47197.384.93%4.72%0.36%0.03%0.57%3.58%2.00%6.97%0.21%0.59%0.25%-0.36%0.67%2.84%-3.10%-2.73%-5.87%0.20%-0.91%0.28%-0.20%-0.84%10.11%-3.10%-0.61%-2.52%-0.17%-0.79%0.27%-0.08%3.39%11.94%中证1000创业板指沪深300科创50科创创业50MSCI中国A50表6：主要行业/主题ETF份额变动情况行业/主题ETF份额（亿份）ETF变动2024/4/262024/4/302024/5/102024/5/172024/4/262024/4/302024/5/102024/5/17有色金属128.69128.94126.66128.280.37%0.19%1.28%电力设备198.98201.81202.93201.590.78%1.42%0.55%-0.66%新能车138.14138.10137.14135.840.41%-0.03%-0.70%-0.95%新能电池136.91135.90133.53135.650.54%-0.74%1.59%新能源142.50142.00141.09141.000.22%-0.35%-0.64%-0.06%碳中和145.67144.65143.24142.54-0.47%-0.70%-0.98%-0.49%152.06151.55150.38144.06-0.93%-0.34%-0.77%-4.20%医药生物1846.251842.071821.171806.820.00%-0.23%-0.79%农林牧渔147.21142.91133.65126.140.04%-2.92%-6.48%-5.62%食品饮料263.66262.61262.22266.92-0.40%-0.15%1.79%TMT305.15304.22309.46311.55-0.63%-0.31%1.72%0.68%计算机169.14168.94168.64166.71-0.12%-0.18%传媒152.27154.99156.49158.041.43%1.79%0.97%0.99%987.90984.06992.891003.27-0.39%0.90%1.05%国防军工259.59262.77259.21265.270.94%1.22%2.34%357.55357.36353.42347.810.42%-0.05%364.00363.37366.16367.041.66%-0.18%0.77%0.24%非银金融882.33872.03885.93889.56-0.98%1.59%0.41%银行111.41111.51109.25105.64-3.42%0.09%-2.03%-3.30%融资净流入两融净流入融券净流入5000-500融资净流入两融净流入融券净流入5000-500-100表7：近四周行业融资净流动情况 申万一级20240426202404302024051020240517近四周合计趋势图 基础化工5.5-5.613.- 公用事业-0.9-2.29.95.412.2 国防军工9.7-4.64.4-1.6 钢铁1.60.54.30.87.2 交通运输-1.83.24.4-0.85.0-- .--银行3.63.6-3.48.8-5.43.6 房地产-2.7-0.43.81.62.4.- 非银金融-0.65.63.1-7.01.1 通信-0.4-4.05.2-0.50.2 有色金属-15.3-5.99.112.20.1 石油石化0.9-2.4-0.52.00.0-.-- 轻工制造-0.8-1.1-0.41.4-0.9-.-社会服务社会服务环保-0.60.2-0.3-0.1-1.9-1.9--0.4-1.1-0.3-0.3-1.0- -1.4-■-- -2.2食品饮料-9.1-9.1-9.66.19.6-3.0商贸零售建筑材料计算机-5.3-11.7-1.7--2.30.1-1.1-9.8-4.8-4.9-6.1 家用电器0.9-3.5-1.3-2.4-6.3-.-. 建筑装饰1.60.9-1.0-7.9-6.4---农林牧渔-2.5-0.7-3.4-0.5-7.1煤炭1.61.6-3.5-4.7-1.6-8.3-..-机械设备-1.0 -8.5传媒-21.4-9.5-18.7-15.4-4.9-13.15.9-5.37.2-16.3-17.7-18.7-22.0-22.0-15.8-0.7 -4.5-43.02022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04）：配股募集资金（亿元）定增募集资金（亿元）配股募集资金（亿元）定增募集资金（亿元）1000.00800.00600.00400.00200.000.00表8：近4周IPO和定增的行业变IPO2024/4/262024/4/302024/5/102024/5/17合计定增2024/4/262024/4/302024/5/102024/5/17合计石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物商贸零售社会服务美容护理计算机传媒通信环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料建筑装饰房地产银行非银金融综合 3.84--------------------------------------------------------------------3.573.57---------------3.843.84----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔商贸零售社会服务计算机传媒环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料房地产银行综合石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备国防军工汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔商贸零售社会服务计算机传媒环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料房地产银行综合石油石化钢铁煤炭基础化工有色金属机械设备电力设备汽车家用电器纺织服饰轻工制造食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物商贸零售社会服务美容护理计算机传媒环保公用事业交通运输建筑材料建筑装饰房地产银行非银金融综合8060200未来四周预计解禁市值合计亿元8006002000请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明40040004003003500200300002500-1002500表9：近四周行业增减持变动情况净增持石油石化2024/4/262024/4/302024/5/102024/5/17-0.77--0.00-0.49-0.22-6.38-0.61---0.70-0.000.02-0.39-0.75-0.78 3.800.030.180.53-0.170.00