世界银行-加密资产能在外汇储备投资组合中发挥作用吗？今天不行在不久的将来也可能不行（英）-2024

TRADE,FINANCEINVESTMENT

ANDCOMPETITIVENESSF

I

N

A

N

C

EEQUITABLE

GROWTH,

FINANCE

&

INSTITUTIONS

INSIGHTCan

Crypto-Assets

Play

a

Rolein

Foreign

Reserve

Portfolios?Not

Today,

andLikelyNot

in

theNear

FutureErikFeyenDanielaKlingebielMarcoRuizPreparedjointlybytheFinance,CompetitivenessandInnovationGlobalPracticeandtheWorldBank

Treasury©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/

TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:

202-473-1000Internet:Thisworkisaproductofthestaffof

TheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.

Thefindings,interpretations,and

conclusions

expressed

in

this

work

do

not

necessarily

reflect

the

views

of

The

World

Bank,

its

Board

ofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.The

World

Bank

does

not

guarantee

the

accuracy,

completeness,

or

currency

of

the

data

included

in

this

workand

does

not

assume

responsibility

for

any

errors,

omissions,

or

discrepancies

in

the

information,

or

liabilitywith

respect

to

the

use

of

or

failure

to

use

the

information,

methods,

processes,

or

conclusions

set

forth.Theboundaries,

colors,

denominations,

and

other

information

shown

on

any

map

in

this

work

do

not

imply

anyjudgment

on

the

part

of

The

World

Bank

concerning

the

legal

status

of

any

territory

or

the

endorsement

oracceptanceofsuchboundaries.Nothing

herein

shall

constitute

or

be

construed

or

considered

to

be

a

limitation

upon

or

waiver

of

the

privilegesandimmunitiesof

TheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.Rights

and

PermissionsThe

material

in

this

work

is

subject

to

copyright.

Because

The

World

Bank

encourages

dissemination

of

itsknowledge,

this

work

may

be

reproduced,

in

whole

or

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part,

for

noncommercial

purposes

as

long

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fullattributiontothisworkisgiven.Any

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including

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rights,

should

be

addressed

to

World

BankPublications,

The

World

Bank

Group,

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H

Street

NW,

Washington,

DC

20433,

USA;

fax:

202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@.Coverphoto:iStocksittipongphokawattanaCanCrypto-AssetsPlayaRoleinForeign

Reserve

Portfolios?Not

Today,

andLikelyNot

in

theNear

Future1ErikFeyenDanielaKlingebielMarco

Ruiz1.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.

TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBank

for

Reconstruction

and

Development/World

Bank

and

its

affiliated

organizations

or

those

of

the

Executive

Directors

of

the

World

Bank

or

the

governments

theyrepresent.

The

authors

thank

Zafer

Mustafaoglu,

Yira

Mascaro,

Natan

Goldberger,

Ayhan

Kose,

Batu

El,

James

Seward,

Jon

Frost,

Juan

Carlos

Quintero,

JuliuszJabłecki,

Rezart

Erindi,

Steen

Byskov,

Stijn

Claessens,

Iker

Zubizarreta,

Carlos

Alvarez,

Antonio

Candia,

and

Xavier

Jean

Nicolas

Martini

for

their

excellent

commentsandsuggestions.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<3>>>ContentsIntroduction59CentralBankReserveManagementandCrypto-AssetsasanInvestable

AssetClassSuitabilityof

InvestinginCrypto-AssetsGiven

theObjectivesandPrinciplesof

ReserveManagement91518Crypto-Assets

versusGoldTheFundamentalChangesRequiredfor

Crypto-Assets

toBecomeSuitable

for

CentralBankReservePortfoliosImprovedLiquidityandLarger

MarketCapReducedPrice

Volatility1919192021Improved

Availabilityof

InvestableInstrumentsAdoptionin

Trade

andFinancialFlowsRobustCustodyandSafekeepingSolutionsClear

Regulatory,Supervisory,andOversight

TreatmentConclusion21232525252931AppendixTheBackgroundof

Crypto-AssetsTypes

of

Crypto-Assetsand

Their

MainCharacteristicsOptions

for

Investors

toObtainExposure

toCrypto-AssetsReferences>>>IntroductionNotwithstanding

the

substantial

volatility

experienced

by

crypto-assets

and

several

high-profilefailures,

the

market

capitalization

and

liquidity

of

crypto-assets

has

increased

significantly

inrecent

years

as

many

new

players

have

entered

the

market

and

new

exchanges,

instruments,

andservice

providers

have

continued

to

mature.

Citing

crypto-assets’

growing

market

capitalizationand

footprint

and

evolving

market

structure,

institutional

investors,

including

central

banks,

havebeen

exploring

exposures

to

crypto-assets

and

reviewing

whether

including

these

instrumentsin

their

portfolios

is

reasonable.

Some

institutions,

typically

those

with

a

long

investment

horizonand

higher

risk

tolerance,

have

started

to

invest

in

the

crypto-asset

space,

but

investment

bythis

group

accounts

for

only

5

percent

of

the

total

issued

Bitcoin

supply

(Bridgewater

2022),

andindividualallocationsareinthelow-singledigitsoftheseinstitutions’

totalassets.We

discuss

the

potential

role

of

crypto-assets

in

central

bank

reserve

portfolios

and

arguethat

these

instruments

do

not

at

present

meet

the

eligibility

criteria

for

inclusion.

Crypto-assetsare

currently

incompatible

with

the

traditional

objectives

of

safety,

liquidity,

and

return;

theirvalue

can

be

highly

volatile,

undermining

their

reliability

as

a

store

of

value;

and

despite

someguidance

from

policy

makers

and

standard-setting

bodies,

they

still

face

an

uncertain

regulatoryenvironment.

Considering

the

rapid

evolution

of

the

technological

and

regulatory

landscape,however,

a

small

chance

exists

that

in

the

future

crypto-assets

could

be

included

as

an

eligiblecentral

bank

investment

instrument,

and

we

discuss

what

would

be

required

before

that

couldhappen.

(We

will

not

cover

central

bank

digital

currencies

(CBDCs),

as

they

are

very

distinctfromcrypto-assets.FormoreonCBDCs,seeBox1.)While

terminology

differs

across

regulatory

authorities

and

standard-setting

bodies,

crypto-assets

can

be

broadly

defined

as

private

digital

representations

of

value

that

can

be

used

forpayment

or

investment

purposes

or

to

access

a

good

or

service

and

that

rely

on

distributedledgerorsimilartechnology(seeFinancialStabilityBoard2018a;Financial

Action

Task

Force2021;

and

Basel

Committee

on

Banking

Supervision

2021).

Crypto-assets

typically

operate2on

open,

decentralized

computer

networks.

Some

decentralized

networks

aim

to

maintainan

immutable

distributed

ledger

that

enables

users

to

store

funds

with

global

reach

andrelatively

fast

settlement

in

a

purely

peer-to-peer

fashion

without

the

need

for

intermediaries(i.e.,

“permissionless”

operation)

or

the

potential

for

third-party

interference

(i.e.,

providing“censorship

resistance”).32.3.Thedefinitionofcrypto-assetstypicallyexcludese-money,centralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDCs),anddigitalrepresentationsoftraditionalfinancialinstruments.The

open-source

software

protocols

enforced

by

these

decentralized

networks

allow

for

consensus

formation

about

the

“state

of

the

world”

in

low-trust

environmentswithout

requiring

a

trusted

third

party

and

seek

to

imbue

crypto-assets

with

certain

characteristics

such

as

scarcity,verifiability,and,

more

broadly,programmability

(e.g.,Nakamoto

(2008)

and

Buterin

(2013)).

The

benefits

of

decentralization

come

at

a

cost,

typically

by

posing

tradeoffs

with

throughput

capacity

and/or

security.See

Feyen,Kawashima,andMittal(2022)forfurtherdetails.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<5As

outlined

by

the

Financial

Stability

Board

(2022a),

crypto-assets

can

be

broadly

divided

into

three

main

categories:

(i)unbacked

crypto-assets,

which

do

not

constitute

a

claim

onany

party

(e.g.,

Bitcoin);

(ii)

stablecoins,

which

aim

to

maintainastablevaluerelativetoaspecifiedasset,mostoftentheUSdollar

and

usually

through

collateralization

(e.g.,

USDC);

and(iii)

decentralized

finance

(DeFi),

an

experimental

ecosystembuilt

on

top

of

distributed

ledger

or

similar

technology

andconsisting

of

projects

or

decentralized

apps

(dapps)

that

aimto

provide

a

range

of

interoperable

financial

services

(e.g.,exchange,

asset

management,

and

lending).

Dapps

oftenissuetheirowncrypto-asset,andinpracticemanysufferfromthe

“illusion

of

decentralization,”

since

the

need

for

governancemakes

some

degree

of

centralization

necessary

(Bank

forInternational

Settlements

2021).

(See

the

Appendix

for

a

moredetaileddescriptionofthemaintypesofcrypto-assets.)(Figure

1).

It

reached

an

all-time

high

of

almost

$2

trillion

in2021,

after

which

market

capitalization

dropped

precipitouslyto

around

$1

trillion

in

the

second

quarter

of

2022.

The

fallin

market

capitalization

coincided

with

a

tightening

of

globalmonetary

and

financial

conditions,

but

it

was

also

driven

bysector-specific

adverse

developments

such

as

the

failureof

TerraLuna,

a

large

stablecoin

project,

and

the

demise

ofseveral

crypto-asset

services

and

investment

firms,

notablyFTX,

that

came

under

pressure

due

to,

inter

alia,

large

pricedrawdowns

and

financial

interlinkages

and,

in

the

case

of

FTX,allegations

of

fraud

and

material

weaknesses

in

governance,riskmanagement,andothercorporatecontrols.4Given

the

open

nature

of

distributed

ledger

technology,

anyonecan

create

a

crypto-asset.

As

a

result,

worldwide

over

10,000crypto-assets

are

available

for

trading

today,

although

theoverwhelming

majority

are

small,

illiquid,

and

have

doubtfuleconomic

use

cases

and

valuations.

Bitcoin

tops

the

rankingby

far

in

terms

of

market

capitalization,

followed

by

Ether,

thenativecrypto-assetof“smartcontract”platformEthereum.Since

Bitcoin’s

genesis

in

2009,

crypto-assets

have

gainedmomentum

and

captured

media

attention,

notably

after

pricesrose

dramatically

in

2013

and

2017.

The

combined

marketvalue

ofcrypto-assets

grew

significantly

in

the

past

fewyears>>>Figure

1.

Market

Capitalization

of

theTo

p

Five

Crypto-AssetsSource:Bloomberg.Note:LatestdataasofDecember2022.4.See

for

example

the

testimony

of

Mr.

John

J.

Ray

III,

CEO

of

FTX

Debtors

(2022),

/meetings/BA/BA00/20221213/115246/HHRG-117-BA00-Wstate-RayJ-20221213.pdf.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<6Crypto-asset

activity

has

witnessed

significant

growth

inrecent

years,

particularly

among

retail

investors

in

emergingmarket

and

developing

economies

(Figure

2).According

to

aStatista

survey

held

in

over

50

countries

for

the

years

2019and

2021,

the

average

share

of

respondents

using

or

owningcrypto-assets

rose

on

average

by

3

percentage

points

to

14percent.

At

the

same

time,

adoption

by

long-term

investorssuch

as

pension

funds

and

endowments

remains

very

low;and

although

high

net-worth

individuals

and

family

officeshave

created

exposure

to

this

type

of

asset

(Figure

3),

theiroverall

allocation

to

crypto-assets

as

a

percent

of

capital

tendstobeverysmall.>>>Figure

2.

Share

of

Respondents

Indicating

They

Either

Owned

or

Used

Crypto-Assets45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2021

2019Source:Statista.>>>Figure

3.

Adoption

of

Crypto-Assets

by

Typeof

InvestorSource:FidelityInternationalDigital

AssetSurvey(2022).EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<7This

paper

is

organized

into

two

substantive

sections,followed

by

a

conclusion.The

first

main

section

assesses

thesuitabilityofcrypto-assetsforcentralbankreservemanagers’purposes.

In

this

context,

we

review

the

objectives

of

reservemanagement

and

discuss

the

currency

composition

andcharacteristics

of

crypto-assets

versus

those

of

gold,

a

long-term

reserve

asset.The

second

substantive

section

analyzesthe

fundamental

changes

required

if

crypto-assets

are

tobecomeeligibleinstrumentsforreserveportfolios.

Amongthenecessary

changes

discussed

are

the

need

for

significantlyenhanced

liquidity

and

decline

in

the

volatility

in

crypto-assets’valuation;reducedspecificoperationalriskfortheinstrument;crypto-assets’

adoption

as

globally

accepted

medium

ofexchange

and

store

of

value;

abatement

of

concerns

aboutcrypto-assets’

potential

adverse

impact

on

financial

stability;and

clarification

of

the

still

uncertain

regulatory

treatment

ofcrypto-assets.

The

conclusion

summarizes

our

findings

fromthisanalysis.BOX

1:

FUNDAMENTAL

DIFFERENCES

BETWEEN

CRYPTO-ASSETS

AND

CENTRAL

BANK

DIGITALCURRENCIESWhileBitcoinandsimilarblock-chain-basedcryptocurrencies,tosomeextent,inspiredtheconceptofcentralbankdigitalcurrencies(CBDCs),thetwocurrenciesfundamentallydiffer.

CBDCsareissuedbyandhaveadirectclaimonacentralbank;theyaredenominatedinthenationalcurrency;andtheyarefullyconvertibletootherformsofmoney.Dependingontheobjectives,aCBDCcanbemadeaccessibletoalldomesticusersasasubstituteforcash(retailCBDC)ortoselectfinancialinstitutionstohelpimprovefinancialmarketefficiency(wholesaleCBDC).LaunchedinOctober2020,theBahamas’

sanddollarisafullyoperationalCBDCandisconsideredretail.NumerouscountriesandcentralbankshavestudiedissuingtheirownCBDCs,andmanyhavecompletedproofsofconceptorpilots(BankforInternationalSettlements2020).ItisstillearlydaysforCBDCs,butitissafetoassumethatreservemanagerswouldadoptthemquicklybecausetheyarebackedbycentralbanksandgovernments.AdoptionofCBDCsforreservemanagementcouldpotentiallyimproveoperationalefficiency—theirmainpotentialadvantage—byimprovingthespeedoftransactionsandreducingsettlementwindows.

ThecurrentSwiftinfrastructureissecure,butithasroomtoimproveinefficiency.Electronictransfersarenotinstantaneous:participantsmustsendSwiftmessagestotheirbanks,whichmaytakesometime,evendays,toprocesstheinstructions.Similarly,tradinginmostsecuritiestakesafewdaystosettle.Blockchaintechnology,includingdistributedledgers,offersapotentialmechanismforspeedingupthosetransactionsandreducingoperationalcosts.Centralbankscouldleveragethistechnologytoimproveefficiencyinfinancialmarkets.AlthoughreservemanagerswouldwelcomeCBDCsasoptions,theiraddedvaluewouldbeminimalfromaportfolioinvestmentanddiversificationperspective.Centralbanksalreadyinvestindigitalversionsoffiatcurrenciesbyinvestingincommercialbankdeposits.SinceanyCBDCwouldtradeatparitywiththeexistingfiatcurrency,investinginCBDCswouldnotbringanydiversificationbenefit.55.Despite

this,

the

possible

impact

of

CBDCs

on

reserves

management,

and

more

generally

on

central

banks’

need

to

hold

reserves

in

anticipation

of

future

developments,continuestobediscussed(seeDongetal).EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<8>>>Central

Bank

ReserveManagement

and

Crypto-Assetsas

an

Investable

Asset

ClassThe

International

Monetary

Fund

(IMF)

defines

reserve

assets

as

“those

external

assets

thatare

readily

available

to

and

controlled

by

monetary

authorities

for

meeting

the

balance

ofpayments

financing

needs,

for

intervention

in

exchange

markets

to

affect

the

currency

exchangerate”

(IMF

2010).

The

IMF

defines

as

reserve

assets

monetary

gold,

special

drawing

rightsholdings,

reserve

position

in

the

IMF,

and

currency,

as

well

as

deposits,

securities

(includingdebt

and

equity

securities),

financial

derivatives,

and

other

claims

(loans

and

other

financialinstruments).

Crypto-assets

do

not

currently

fit

into

these

conditions,

and

it

is

difficult

to

assessif

and

when

they

will,

given

their

low

relevance

as

an

internationally

accepted

medium

ofexchange

andstoreof

value.Suitability

of

Investing

in

Crypto-Assets

Given

theObjectives

and

Principles

of

Reserve

ManagementTo

assess

the

suitability

of

crypto-assets

for

reserve

management

purposes,

we

review

theobjectives

and

reserve

management

principles

that

drive

reserve

management

activities.

Wealso

review

the

factors

underlying

the

specific

currency

composition

of

reserves

to

analyze

thecircumstancesunderwhichcrypto-assetscouldbeincludedinreserves.RESERVE

MANAGEMENT

DIMENSIONS

AND

CRYPTO-ASSETSReserve

management

objectives.

Figure

4

shows

that

central

banks

invest

reserves

to

meetmacroeconomic

objectives

such

as

providing

self-insurance

against

external

shocks,

conductingforeign

exchange

policy,

and

servicing

external

debt

or

obligations.

Achieving

or

maximizinglong-term

returns

(“to

ensure

savings

for

intergenerational

equity”)

is

less

relevant

for

mostcentralbanks.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<9>>>Figure

4.

Reserve

Management

ObjectivesSource:

ThirdRAMP

surveyontheReserveManagementPracticesofCentralBanks(2021).Becausereserveassetsareheldforself-insurancepurposes,they

must

be

highly

liquid

in

the

face

of

external

shocks.

Crypto-assets

are

not

liquid

enough

to

include

in

reserve

portfolios.The

daily

trading

volume

of

crypto-assets

is

extremely

lowcompared

to

any

of

the

currencies

in

the

special

drawingBitcoin

and

Ethereum,

currently

the

dominant

crypto-assets,

isa

fraction

of

the

daily

trading

volume

of

the

foremost

reservecurrencies.

Tether,

the

largest

stablecoin,

has

a

greater

dailytradingvolumethanBitcoinandEthereum,butitiswellbelowthatofanySDRcurrency.rights

(SDR)

basket

(Figure

5).

The

daily

trading

volume

of6>>>Figure

5.

Daily

Trading

Volume

of

Major

Crypto-Assets

and

Currencies

in

Special

Drawing

Rights

BasketSource:BIS

TriennialFXSurvey(2019)andCoinMarketCap.Note:BTCandETHvolumeasof

August2022.6.Yahoo

Financeasof

April2022.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<

10An

asset’s

liquidity

can

also

be

gauged

using

the

prism

oftrading

costs.

Crypto-assets

are

difficult

and

costly

to

trade.Permissionless

blockchains

work

by

providing

monetaryincentives

to

decentralized

validators,

which

can

leadto

congestion

and

high

fees

(see

Boissay

et

al.

2022

forfurtherdetails).Despite

its

impressive

growth,

the

market

capitalizationof

Bitcoin

and

Ethereum,

which

together

account

for

66percent

of

crypto-assets’

market

capitalization,

is

muchlower

than

that

of

traditional

reserve

assets

(see

Figure

6).The

largest

stablecoins,

Tether

and

USD

Coin,

have

evenlowermarketcapitalization.>>>Figure

6.

Market

Capitalization

of

Major

Crypto-Assets

and

Traditional

Reserve

Asset

ClassesSource:BloombergindicesandCoinMarketCap.Note:Latestdataasof

August2022.Reserve

management

principles.

According

to

the

2021RAMP

survey,safetyisthemostcriticalreservemanagementprinciple,

followed

closely

by

liquidity

(Figure

7).

Capitalpreservation

is

essential

in

reserve

management

activities

tomeet

the

objectives

shown

in

Figure

4.

Reserves,

most

neededduring

stress

episodes,

must

retain

value

when

inherentlyunpredictable

shocks

hit

and

markets’

ability

to

price

assets,including

crypto-assets,

may

break

down.

Central

bankshave

interpreted

this

principle

as

a

mandate

to

invest

in

low-risk

instruments,

a

universe

encompassing

instruments

thathave

low

volatility

and

high

credit

quality

and

that

are

easy

tosafeguard,includingfromcybersecurityrisk.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<

11>>>Figure

7.

Reserve

Management

Principles

(2021)Source:

ThirdRAMP

surveyontheReserveManagementPracticesofCentralBanks(2021).Crypto-assets

are

inconsistent

with

the

investment

principleof

safety,

even

from

a

portfolio

concept

perspective.

Thevolatility

of

crypto-assets

is

too

high

and

their

valuationsare

uncertain,

making

them

risky

for

central

banks

focusedon

capital

preservation.

The

standard

deviation

of

Bitcoin

ismuch

higher

than

that

of

any

other

asset

class

in

which

centralbanks

invest

(Figure

8).

Between

August

2020

and

August2022,Bitcoinexperiencedsevenepisodesofpricedecreasesexceeding

20

percent;

in

three

of

these

instances,

its

valuedropped

by

more

than

40

percent.

This

high

level

of

volatilityis

undesirable

for

central

banks

that

may

need

to

provide

theireconomies

with

foreign

currency

liquidity

at

any

moment

andthus

crypto-assets

cannot

be

considered

safe

from

a

reservemanagementperspective.7>>>Figure

8.

Volatility

of

Bitcoin,

Fixed

Income,

and

EquitiesSource:Bloomberg.Note:LatestdataasofJanuary2023.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<

12Although

some

market

participants

suggest

that

reservemanagers

invest

in

crypto-assets

to

enhance

investmentreturn,therealityisthatthisisasecondaryobjectiveformostcentral

bank

reserve

managers

(see

Figure

7).

For

instance,allocation

to

“riskier”

asset

classes,

such

as

equity,

that

alsorequire

a

longer

investment

horizon

is

low

in

many

centralbank

reserve

portfolios,

accounting

for

only

an

average

of1.7

percent

(see

RAMP

2021).

The

low

average

allocation

toequities

illustrates

that

even

broadly

accepted

asset

classesstruggle

as

reserve

assets

if

their

volatility

is

high

(see

Figure9).

Additionally,

contrary

to

equities,

for

example,

the

valuationof

crypto-assets

is

uncertain

in

the

absence

of

(expected)cash

flows

and

limited

utility,

making

it

highly

challenging

toestablish

reasonable

return

expectations.

It

can

be

assumed,then,

that

central

banks

are

unlikely

to

move

into

crypto-assetsany

time

soon,

given

their

even

more

volatile

return

streams(seeFigures1and8).>>>Figure

9.

Equity

Returns

and

VolatilitySource:Bloomberg.Note:Latestdataasof

August2022.Finally,

crypto-assets

are

not

good

portfolio

diversifiers,as

their

correlation

with

risk

assets

is

volatile

and

recentlystood

above

0.5

(see

Figure

10).

As

with

any

statisticalanalysis

involving

crypto-assets,

however,

one

must

recallthat

historical

data

is

limited

and

that

they

are

continuouslyevolving.

In

addition,

in

contrast

to

U.S.

Treasuries,

Bitcoin8exhibits

a

negligible

correlation

with

emerging

market

CDS,suggesting

crypto-assets

do

not

increase

in

value

exactly

atthe

moment

when

central

banks

may

need

to

use

foreignreservestostabilize

markets.8.Even

for

Bitcoin,

with

just

over

a

decade

in

existence,

it

is

difficult

to

draw

firm

conclusions.

Other

crypto-assets

have

even

less

data

history,hindering

effective

analysis.In

addition,

the

Bloomberg

performance

benchmark

to

reflect

the

return

of

available

crypto-assets

is

even

less

helpful

for

the

analysis,

as

its

composition

changes

reg-ularly,creatingstructuralbreaksinthedata.UsingtheBloombergbenchmarktoreflecttheriskandreturnavailableforcrypto-assetsisthereforeoflimiteduse.Fortherestofthispaper,wefocusourtechnicalanalysisonBitcoin,asithasatleasttenyearsofdata.EQUITABLEGROWTH,FINANCE&INSTITUTIONSINSIGHT

<<<

13>>>Figure

10.

Bitcoin’s

Correlation

with

EquitiesSource:Bloomberg.Note:LatestdataasofJanuary2023.Beyond

crypto-assets’

high

volatility

of

return

and

relativeilliquidity,

they

also

carry

specific

operational

risks

distinct

fromthose

of

typical

reserve

assets.

For

exampl