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2017年普通高等学校招生全国统一考试(江苏卷)
英语
注意事项:
1.答题前,先将自己的姓名、准考证号填写在试题卷和答题卡上,并将准考证号条形码粘
贴在答题卡上的指定位置。用2B铅笔将答题卡上试卷类型A后的方框涂黑。
2.选择题的作答:每小题选出答案后,用2B铅笔把答题卡上对应题目的答案标号涂黑,
写在试题卷、草稿纸和答题卡上的非答题区域均无效。
3.非选择题的作答:用签字笔直接答在答题卡上对应的答题区域内。写在试题卷、草稿纸
和答题卡上的非答题区域均无效。
4.考试结束后,请将本试题卷和答题卡一并上交。
第I卷
第一部分听力(共两节,满分20分)
做题时,现将答案标在试卷上,录音内容结束后,你将有两分钟的时间将试卷上的答案转涂
到答题卡上。
第一节(共5小题;每小题I分,满分5分)
听下面5段对话,每段对话后有一个小题。从题中所给的A、B、C三个选项中选出
最佳选项,并标在试卷的相应位置。听完每段对话后,你都有10秒钟的时学#科*网间来回
答有关小题和阅读下一小题。每段对话仅读一遍。
l.Whatdoesthewomanthinkofthemovie?
A.It'samusingB.It'sexcitingC.It'sdisappointing
2.HowwillSusanspendmostofhertimeinFrance?
A.Travelingaround.
B.Studyingataschool.
C.Lookingstterheraunt.
3.Whatarethespeakerstalkingzbout?
A.Goingout.
B.Orderingdrinks.
C.Preparingforaparty.
4.Wherearethespeakers?
A.Inaclassroom.B.Inalibrary.C.Inabookstore.
5.Whatisthemangoingtodo?
A.GoonInternetB.Makeaphonecall.C.Takeatraintrip.
第二节(共15小题;每小题1分,满分15分)
听下面5段对话或独白。每段对话或独白后有几个小题,从题中所给的A、B、C三个选项
中选出最佳选项。听每段对话或独白前,你将有时间阅读各个小题,每小题秒钟;听完后,
各小题将给出5秒钟的作答时间。每段对话或独白读两遍。
听第6段材料,回答第6、7题。
6,Whatisthewomanlookingfor?
A.Aninformationoffice.B.ApolicestationC.Ashoerepairshop.
7.WhatistheTownGuideaccordingtotheman?
A.Abrochure.B.Anewspaper.C.Amap.
听第7段材料,回答第8、9题。
8.Whatdoesthemansayabouttherestaurant?
A.It'sthebiggestonearound.
B.Itoffersmanytastydishes.
C.It'sfamounsforitsseafood.
9.Whatwillthewomanprobablyorder?
A.FriedfishB.Roastchicken.C.Beefsteak.
听第8段材料,回答第10至12题。
10.WherewillMr.Whitebeat11otlock?
A.AttheofficeB.Attheairport.C.Attherestaurant.
11.WherewillMr.Whiteprobablydoatoneintheafternoon?
A.Receliveaguest.B.Haveameeting.C.Readareport.
12.WherewillMissWilsonseeMr.White?
A.Atlunchtime.
B.Lateintheafternoon.
C.Thenextmorning.
听第9段材料,回答第13至16题。
13.WhyisBiligoingtoGermany?
A.Toworkonaproject.
B.TostudyGerman.
C.Tostartanewcompany.
14.WhatdidthewomandislikeaboutGermany?
A.Theweather.B.Thefood.C.Theschools.
15.WhatdoesBillhopetodoabouthisfamily?
A.BringthemtoGermany.
B.LeavetheminEngland.
C.Visittheminafewmonths.
16.Whatistheprobablerelationshipbetweenthespeakers?
A.Fellow-travelers.B.Colleagues.C.Classmates.
听第10段材料,回答第17至20题。
17.WhendiditrainlasttimeinJuarez?
A.Threedaysago.B.Amonthago.C.Ayearago.
18.Whatseasonisitnowinjuarez?
A.Spring.B.SummerC.Autumn.
19.Whataretheelderlyadvisedtodo?
A.Takeawalkinafternoon.
B.Keeptheirhomescool.
C.Drinkplentyofwater.
2O.Whatisthespeakerdoing?
A.Hostingaradioprogram.
B.Conductingaseminar.
C.Forecastingtheweather*.
第二部分:英语知识运用(共两节,满分35分)
第一节:单项填空(共15小题;每小题1分,满分15分)
请阅读下面各题,从题中所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项,并在答题卡
上将该项涂黑。
例:Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachildheorshewants.
A.howeverB.whateverC.whicheverD.whenever
答案是B。
例:Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachildheorshewants.
A.howeverB.whateverC.whicheverD.whenever
答案是Bo
21.ManyChinesebrands,theirreputationsovercenturies,arefacingnewchallenges
fromthemodemmarket.
A.havingdevelopedB.beingdevelopedC.developedD.developing
22.notforthesupportoftheteachers,thestudentcouldnotovercomeherdifficulty.
A.ItwereB.WereitC.ItwasD.Wasit
23.LocatedtheBeltmeetstheRoad,JiangsuwillcontributemoretotheBeltandRoad
construction.
A.whyB.whenC.whichD.where
24.ThepublicationofGreatExpectations,whichbothwidelyreviewedandhighly
praised,strengthenedDickensstatusasaleadingnovelist.
A.isB.areC.wasD.were
25.WorkingwiththemedicalteaminAfricahasthebestinherasadoctor.
A.heldoutB.broughtoutC.pickedoutD.givenout
26.Wechoosethishotelbecausethepriceforanighthereisdownto$20,halfofitused
tocharge.
A.thatB.whichC.whatD.how
27.Hehurriedhome,neveroncelookingbacktoseeifhe.
A.wasbeingfollowedB.wasfollowingC.hadbeenfollowedD.followed
28.In1963theUNsetuptheWorldFoodProgramme,oneofpui-posesistorelieve
worldwidestarvation.
A.whichB.ifsC.whoseD.whom
29.OnlyfiveyearsafterSteveJobs*death,smart-phonesdefeatedPCsinsales.
A.controversialB.contractoryC.confidentialD.conventional
30.Aquickreviewofsuccessesandfailuresattheendofyearwillhelpyouryear
ahead.
A.shapeB.switchC.stretchD.sharpen
31.He'sbeeninformedthatheforthescholarshipbecauseofhisacademicbackground.
A.hasn'tqualifiedB.hadn'tqualifiedC.doesn'tqualifyD.wasn'tqualifying
32.Determiningwhereweareoursurroundingsremainsanessentialskillforour
survival.
A.incontrasttoB.indefenseofC.infaceofD.inrelationto
33.------WhatdoesthestuffonyourT-shirtmean?
------it'snothing.Justsomething.
A.asclearasdayB.offthetopofmyhead
C.undermynoseD.beyondmywildestdreams
34.Thedisappearanceofdinosaursisnotnecessarilycausedbyastronomicalincidents.But
explanations
arehardtofind.
A.alternativeB.aggressiveC.ambiguousD.apparent
35.------GoingtowatchtheWomen?sVolleyballMatchonWednesday?
------!Willyougowithme?
A.YouthereB.YoubetC.YougotmeD.Youknowbetter
第二节:完形填空(共20小题;每小题1分,满分20分)
请阅读下面短文,从短文后各题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项,并在
答题卡上将该项涂黑。
ForalongtimeGabrieldidn'twanttobeinvolvedinmusicatall.Inhisfirstyearsofhigh
school,Gabrielwouldlookpityinglyatmusicstudents,36acrossthecampuswiththeir
heavyinstrumentcases.37atschoolforpracticehours38anyoneelsehadtobe
there.Hesworetohimselfto39music.ashehatedgettingtoschoolextraearly.
_40__,oneday,inthemusicclassthatwas_41_ofhisschooPsstandardcurriculum,
hewasplayingidly(随意地)onthepianoandfoundit42___topickouttunes.Witha
sinkingfeeling,herealizedthatheactually_43_doingit.Hetriedtihidehis_44_pleasurefrom
themusicleather,whohad_45_overtolisten.Hemightnothavethisparticularlywell,—46—the
teachertoldGabrielthathehadagood___47_andsuggestedthatGabrielgointothemusin
store-roomtiseeifanyoftheinstrumentsthere_48_him.Therehedecidedtogivethecello(大
提琴)a—49—.Whenhebeganpracticing,hetookitvery_50—.Buthequicklyfoundthathe
lovedplayingthisinstrument,andwas_51—topracticingitsothatwithinacoupleofmonthshe
wasplayingreasonablywell.
This_52—,ofcourse,thathearrivedatschoolearlyinthemorning,_53_hisheavy
instrumentcaseacrossthecampustothe_54—looksofthenon-musicianshehadleft_55.
36.A.travellingB.marchingC.pacing□.struggling
37.A.risingupB.comingupC.drivingupD.turningup
38.A.beforeB.afterC.untilD.since
39.A.betrayB.acceptC.avoid0.appreciate
40.A.ThereforeB.HoweverC.ThusD.Moreover
41.A.partB.natureC.basisD.apirit
42.A.complicateB.safeC.confusingD.easy
43.A.missedB.dislikedC.enioyed0.denied
44.A.transparentB.obviousC.false0.similar
45.A.runB.joggedC.jumpedD.wandered
46.A.becauseB.butC.thoughD.so
47.A.earB.tasteC.heartD.voice
48.A.occurredB.tooktoC.appealedD.heldto
49.A.changeB.chanceC.missionD.function
50.A.seriouslyB.proudlyC.casually0.admitted
51.A.committedB.usedC.limited0.admitted
52.A.provedB.showedC.stressedD.meant
53.A.pushingB.draggingC.liftingD.rushing
54.A.admiringB.pityingC.annoyingD.teasing
55.A.overB.asideC.behindD.out
第三部分:阅读理解(共15小题;每小题2分,满分30分)
请阅读下列短文,从短文后各题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项,并
在答题卡上将该项涂黑。
A
CHRONOLOGICA
------TheUnbelievableYearsthatDefinedHistory
DIDYOUKNOW…
•>In105ADpaperwasinventedinChina?
WhenColumbusdiscoveredtheNewWorld?
•3*TheBritishMuseumopenedin1759?
CHRONOLOGICAisafascinatingjourneythroughtime,fromthe
foundationofRometothecreationoftheinternet.Alongthewayare
talesofkingsandqueens,hotairballoons…andmonkeysinspace.
Travelthrough100ofthemostunbelievableyearsinworldhistory
andledrnwhybeingaRomanEmperorwasn'talwaysasgoodasit
sounds,howtheHundredYears'Wardidn'tactuallylastfor100years
andwhySpencerPercevalholdsaratherunfortunaterecord.
CHRONOLOGICAisaninformativeandentertainingtourintohistory,beautifullyillustratedand
fullofunbelievablefacts.WhileCHRONOLOGICAtellsthestoriesoffamous
peopleinhistorysuchasThomasEdisonandAlexandertheGreat,thisbookalso
givesabaccountofthelivesoflesser-knownindividualsincludingtheexploeer
MungoParkandsculptorGutzonBorglum.
Thiscompletebutbriefhistoricalcollectioniscertaintoentertainreadersyoung
andold,andguaranteedtopresenteven
thebiggesthistoryloverwithsomgthing
new!
56.WhatisCHRONOLOGICAaccordingtothenext?
A.Abiography.B.Atravelguide.
C.Ahistorybook.D.Asciencefiction.
57.HowdoesthewriterrecommendCHRONOLOGICAtoreaders?
A.Bygivingdetailsofitscollection.
B.Byintroducingsomeofitscontents.
C.Bytellingstoriesatthebeginning.
D.Bycomparingitwithotherbooks.
Beforebirth,babiescantellthedifferencebetweenloudsoundsandvoices.Theycaneven
distinguishtheirmother'svoicefromthatofafemalestranger.Butwhenitcomestoembryonic
learning(胎教),birdscouldruletheroost.AsrecentlyreportedinTheAuk:Ornithological
Adrances,somemotherbirdsmayteachtheiryoungtosingevenbeforetheyhatch(孵化)。
New-bornchickscanthenimitatetheirmom'scallwithinafewdaysofeneringtheworld.
Thiseducationalmethodwasfirstobservedin2012bySoniaKieindorfer,abiologistatFlinders
UniversityinSouthAustralia,andhercollcagues.FemakeAustraliansuperbfairywrenswere
foundtorepeatonesoundoverandoveragainwhilehatchingtheirerrs,Whentheerrswere
hatched,thebabybirdsmadethesimilarchiiptotheirmothers—asoundthatservedastheirregular
“feedmel^call.
Tofindoutifthespecialqualitywasmorewidespreadinbirds,theresearcherssoughtthe
red-backedfairywren,anotherspeciesofAustraliansongbird.Firsttheycollectedsounddatdfrom
67nestsinfoursitesinQueenslangbeforeandafterhatching,Thentheyidentifiedbeggingcalls
byanalyzingtheorderandnumberofnotes.Acomputeranalysisblindlycomparedcallsproduced
bymothersandchicks,rankingthembysimilarity.
Itturnsoutthatbabyred-backedfairywrensalsoemergechirpingliketheirmoms.Andthemore
frequentlymothershadcalledtotheirerrs,themoresimilarwerethebabies,beggingcalls.In
addition,theteamsetupaseparateexperimentthatsuggestedthatthebabybirdsthatmostclosely
imitatedtheirmom'svoicewererewardedwiththemostfood.
Thisobservationhintsthateffectiveembryoniclearningcouldsignalneurological(神经系统
的)strengthsofchildrentoparents.Anevolutionaryinferencecanthenbedrawn."Asaparent,do
youinvestinqualitychildren,ordoyouinvestinchildrenthatareinneed?,,Kleindorferasks.^Our
resultssuggestthattheymightbegoingforquality.^^
58.TheunderlinedphraseinParagraph1means””.
A上etheworstB.bethebest
C.betheasbadD.bejustasgood
59.WhatareKleindorfer^findingsbasedon?
A.Similaritiesbetweenthecallsmomsandchicks.
B.TheobservationoffairywrensacrossAustralia.
C.ThedatacollectedfromQueensland'slocals.
□,Controlledexperimentsonwrensandotherbirds.
60.Embryoniclearninghelpsmotherbirdstoidentifythebabybirdswhich.
A.canreceivequalitysignalsB.areinneedoftraining
C.fittheenvironmentbetterD.maketheloudestcall
c
Anewcommoditybringsaboutahighlyprofitable,fast-growingindustry,urgingantitrust(反
垄断)regulatorstostepintocheckthosewhocontrolitsflow.Acenturyago,theresourcein
questionwasoil.Nowsimilarconcernsaresbeingraisedbythegiants(巨头)thatdealindata,the
oilofthedigitalage.ThemostvaluablefirmsareGoogle,Amazon,FacebookandMicrosoft.All
lookunstoppable.
Suchsituationshaveledtocallsforthetechgiantstobebrokenup.Butsizealoneisnota
crime,Thegiants'successhasbenefitedconsumers.Fewwanttolivewithoutsearchenginesora
quickdelivery,Farfromchargingconsumershighprices,manyoftheseservicesarefree(users
pay,ineffect,byhandingoveryetmoredata).Andtheappearanceofnew-borngiantssuggests
thatnewcomerscanmakewaves,too.
Butthereiscauseforconcern.Theinternethasmadedataabundant,all-presentandfarmore
valuable,changingthenatureofdataandcompetition.Googleinitiallyusedthedatacollected
fromuserstotargetadvertisingbetter.Butrecentlyithasdiscoveredthatdatacanbeturnedinto
newservices:translationandvisualrecognition,tobesoldtoothercompanies.Internetcompanies5
controlofdatagivesthemenormouspower.Sotheyhavea"God'seyeview"ofactivitiesintheir
ownmarketsandbeyond.
Thisnatureofdatamakestheantitrustmeasuresofthepastlessuseful.Breakingupfirms
likeGoogleintofivesmalloneswouldnotstopremakingthemselves:intime,oneofthemwould
becomegreatagain.Arethinkisrequired—andasanewapproachstartstobecomeapparent,two
ideasstandout.
Thefirstisthatantitrustauthoritiesneedtomoveformtheindustrialageintothe21stcentury.
Whenconsideringamerger(兼并),forexample,theyhavetraditionallyusedsizetodetermine
whentostepin.Theynowneedtotakeintoaccounttheextentoffirms'dataassets(资产)when
assessingtheimpactofdeals.Thepurchasepricecouldalsobeasignalthatanestablished
companyisbuyinganew-bormthreat.Whenthistakesplace,especiallywhenanew-born
companyhasnorevenuetospeakof,theregulatorsshouldraiseredflags.
Thesecondprincipleistoloosenthecontrolthatprovidersofon-lineserviceshaveoverdata
andgivemoretothosewhosupplythem.Companiescouldbeforcedtoconsumerswhatinformati
ontheyholdandhowmanymoneytheymakeformit.Govemmentscouldorderthesharingofcert
ainkindsofdata,withusers*consent.
RestartingantitrustfortheinformationagewillnotbeeasyButifgovernmentsdon'twantsa
dataoconomybyafewgiants,theymustactsoon.
61.Whyisthereacalltobreakupgiants?
A.Theyhavecontrolledthedatamarket
B.Theycollectenormousprivatedata
C.Theynolongerprovidefreeservices
D.Theydismissedsomenew-borngiants
62.WhatdoesthetechnologicalinnovationinParagraph3indicate?
A.Datagiants9technologyisveryexpensive
B.Google'sideaispopularamongdatafirms
C.Datacanstrengthengiants'controllingposition
D.Datacanbeturnedintonewservicesorproducts
63.Bypayingattentiontofirms'dataassets,antitrustregulatorscould.
A.killanewthreat
B.avoidthesizetrap
C.favourbiggerfirms
D.chargehigherprices
64.Whatisthepurposeoflooseningthegiants'controlofdata?
A.Bigcompaniescouldrelievedatasecuritypressure.
B.Governmentscouldrelievetheirfinancialpressure.
C.Consumerscouldbetterprotecttheirprivacy.
D.Smallcompaniescouldgetmoreopportunities.
D
OldProblem,NewApproaches
Whilecleanenergyisincreasinglyusedinourdailylife,globalwarningwillcontinuefor
somedecadesafterCO2emissions(排放)peak.Soevenifemissionweretobegindecreasetoday,
wewouldstillfacethechallengeofadaptingtoclimate.HereIwillstresssomesmarterandmore
creativeexamplesofclimateadaptation.
Whenitcomestoadaptation,itisimportanttounderstandthatclimatechangeisaprocess.
Wearethereforenottalkingaboutadaptingtoanewstandard,buttoaconstantlyshiftingsetof
conditions.Thisiswhyinpartatleast,theUSNationalClimateAssessmentsaysthati^thereisno
'one-sizefitairadaptation."Nevertheless,therearesomeactionsthatoffermuchandcarrylittle
riskorcost.
Aroundtheworldpeopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries.
FloodshavesomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MohammedRezwansaw
opportunitywhereotherssawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboats
thatserverasfloatinglibraries,schools,andhealthclinics,andareequipmentwithsolarpanels
andothercommunicationfacilities.Rezwaniscreatingfloatingconnecticity(连体)toreplace
floodedroadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmorefundamentallevel:hisstaff
peoplehowtomakefloatinggardensfishpondspreventatarcationduringthewetseason.
Aroundtheworld,peopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries,
FllodshavebecomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MobammedRezwansaw
opportunilywhereotherssawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboats
thatserveasfloatinglibraries,schoods,andhealthclinics,andareequippedwithsolarpanelsand
othercommunicatingfacilities.RezwaniscreatingfloatingconmetivityC连接)toreplaceflooded
roadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmorefundamentallevel:hisstaffshowpeople
howtomakefloatinggardensandfishpondstopreventstarvationduringthewetseason.
ElsewhereinAsiaevenmoreastonishingactionsarebeingtaken.Chewang.Nophellivesina
mountaionousregioninIndia,whereheisknownastheIceMan.Thelossofglaciers(冰川)there
duetoglobalwarmingrepresentsanenormousthreattoagriculture.Withouttheglaciers,water
willarriveintheriversattimeswhenitcandamagecrops.Norphefsinspirationcomefrom
seeingthewasteofwateroverwinter,whenitwasnotneeded.Hedirectedthewastedwaterinto
shallowbasinswhereitfroze,andwasstoreduntilthespring.Hisfieldsoficesupplyperfectly
timedirrigation(灌,既)water.Havingcreatedninesuchicereserves.Nophelcalculatesthathehas
storedabout200,000m3ofwater.Climatechangeisacontinuingprocess,soNorheFsice
reserveswillnotlastforever.Warmingwillovertakethem.Butheisprovidingafewyearsduring
whichthefarmerswill,perhaps,beabletofindothermeansofadapting.
IncreasingEarth'sreflectivenesscancooltheplanet.InsouthernSpainthesuddenincreaseof
greenhouses(whichreflectlightbacktospace)haschangedthewarmingtrendlocally,and
actuallycooledtheregion.WhileSpainasawholeisheatingupquickly,temperaturesnearthe
greenhouseshavedecreased.Thisexampleshouldactasaninspirationforallcities.Bypainting
buildingswhite,citiesmayslowdownthewarmingprocess.
InPeni,localfarmersaroundamountainwithaglacierthathasalreadyfallenvictimto
climatechangehavebegunpaintingtheentiremountainpeakwhiteinthehopethattheadded
reflectivenesswillrestorethelife-givingice.Theoutcomeisstillfarfromclear,ButtheWorld
Bankhasincludedtheprojectonitsof4100ideastosavetheplanet”.
Moreordinaryformsofadaptationarehappeningeverywhere.Afriendofmineownsanarea
oflandinwesternVictoria.Overfivegenerationsthelandhasbeenloowetforcropping.But
duringthepastdecadedecliningrainfallhasallowshimtoplanthighlyprofitablecrops.Farmers
inmanycountriesarealsoadaptinglikethis—eitherbygrowingnewproduce,orbygrowingthe
samethingsdifferently.Thisiscommonsense,Butsomesuggestionsforadaptingarenot.When
thepollutingindustriesarguethatwe'velostthebattletocontrolcarbonpollutionandhaveno
choicebuttoadapt,it'sanonsensedesignedtomakethecasefbrbusinessasusual.
Humanbeingswillcontinuetoadapttothechangingclimateinbothordinaryandastonishing
ways.Butthemostsensibleformofadaptationissurelytoadaptourenergysystemstoemitless
carbonpollution.Afterall,ifweadaptintheway,wemayavoidtheneedtochangeinsomany
others.
65.TheunderlinedpartinParagraph2implies.
A.adaptationisanever-changingprocess
B.thecostofadaptationvarieswithtime
C.globalwarmingaffectsadaptationforms
D.adaptationtoclimatechangeischallenging
66.WhatisspecialwithregardtoRezwan'sproject?
A.Theprojectreceivesgovernmentsupport.
B.Differentorganizationsworkwitheachother.
C.Hisorganizationmakesthebestofabadsituation.
D.Theprojectconnectsfloodedroadsandhighways.
67.WhatdidtheIceMandotoreducetheeffectofglobalwarming?
A.Storingiceforfutureuse.
B.Protectingtheglaciersfrommelting.
C.Changingtheirrigationtime.
D.Postponingthemeltingoftheglaciers.
68.WhatdowelearnfromthePeruexample?
A.Whitepaintisusuallysafeforbuildings.
B.Theglobalwarmingtreadcannotbestopped.
C.Thiscountryisheatinguptooquickly.
D.Sunlightreflectionmayrelieveglobalwarming.
69.Accordingtotheauthor,pollutingindustriesshould.
A.adapttocarbonpollution
B.planthighlyprofitablecrops
C.leavecarbonemissionalone
D.fightagainstcarbonpollution
70.What'stheauthor'spreferredsolutiontoglobalwarming?
A.settingupanewstandard.
B.Readucingcarbonemission.
C.Adaptingtoclimatechange.
D.Monitoringpollutingindustries.
第四部分:任务型阅读(共10小题;每小题1分,满分10分)
请阅读下面短文,并根据所读内容在文章后表格中的空格里填入7个最恰当的单词。
注意:请将答案写在答题卡上相应题号的横线上•每个空格只填一个单词。
PopulationChange
Whyistheworld'spopulationgrowing?Theanswerisnotwhatyoumightthink.Thereason
fortheexplosionisnotthatpeoplehavebeenreproducinglikerabbits,butthatpeoplehave
stoppeddroppingdeadlikeflies.In1900,peoplediedattheaverageageof30.By2000theaverage
agewas65.Butwhileincreasinghealthwasatupicalfeatureofthe20thcentury,decliningbirthrate
couldbeadefiningoneofthe21st.
Statisticsshowthattheaveragenumberofbirthsperwomanhasfallenfrom4.9intheearly
1960sto2.5owadays.Furthermore,around50%oftheworld'spopulationliveinregionswherethe
figureisnowbelowthereplacementlevel(i.e.2.1birthsperwoman)andalmostalldeveloped
nationsareexperiencingsub-repalanementbirthrate.Youmightthinkthatdevelopingnations
wouldmakeuptheloss(especiallysince80%oftheworld'speoplenowliveinsuchnations),but
you'dbewrong,Decliningbirthrateisamajorprobleminmanydevelopingregionstoo,which
mightcausecatastrophicglobalshortagesofworkforcewithinafewdecades.
AgreatdeclineinyoungworkforceislikelytooccurinChina,forinstance.Whatdoesit
imply?First,Chinaneedstoundergorapideconomicdevelopmentbeforeapopulationdeclinehits
thecountry.Sencond,ifotherfactorssuchastechnologyremainconstant,economicgrowthand
materialexpectationswillfallwellbelowrecentstandardsandthiscouldinvitetrouble.
Russiaisanothercountrywithpopulationproblemsthatcouldbreakitseconomic
promise.Since1992thenumberofpeopledyinghasbeenbiggenthanthatofthosebeingbornby
amassive50%,Indeed
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