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2017年普通高等学校招生全国统一考试(江苏卷)

英语

注意事项:

1.答题前,先将自己的姓名、准考证号填写在试题卷和答题卡上,并将准考证号条形码粘

贴在答题卡上的指定位置。用2B铅笔将答题卡上试卷类型A后的方框涂黑。

2.选择题的作答:每小题选出答案后,用2B铅笔把答题卡上对应题目的答案标号涂黑,

写在试题卷、草稿纸和答题卡上的非答题区域均无效。

3.非选择题的作答:用签字笔直接答在答题卡上对应的答题区域内。写在试题卷、草稿纸

和答题卡上的非答题区域均无效。

4.考试结束后,请将本试题卷和答题卡一并上交。

第I卷

第一部分听力(共两节,满分20分)

做题时,现将答案标在试卷上,录音内容结束后,你将有两分钟的时间将试卷上的答案转涂

到答题卡上。

第一节(共5小题;每小题I分,满分5分)

听下面5段对话,每段对话后有一个小题。从题中所给的A、B、C三个选项中选出

最佳选项,并标在试卷的相应位置。听完每段对话后,你都有10秒钟的时学#科*网间来回

答有关小题和阅读下一小题。每段对话仅读一遍。

l.Whatdoesthewomanthinkofthemovie?

A.It'samusingB.It'sexcitingC.It'sdisappointing

2.HowwillSusanspendmostofhertimeinFrance?

A.Travelingaround.

B.Studyingataschool.

C.Lookingstterheraunt.

3.Whatarethespeakerstalkingzbout?

A.Goingout.

B.Orderingdrinks.

C.Preparingforaparty.

4.Wherearethespeakers?

A.Inaclassroom.B.Inalibrary.C.Inabookstore.

5.Whatisthemangoingtodo?

A.GoonInternetB.Makeaphonecall.C.Takeatraintrip.

第二节(共15小题;每小题1分,满分15分)

听下面5段对话或独白。每段对话或独白后有几个小题,从题中所给的A、B、C三个选项

中选出最佳选项。听每段对话或独白前,你将有时间阅读各个小题,每小题秒钟;听完后,

各小题将给出5秒钟的作答时间。每段对话或独白读两遍。

听第6段材料,回答第6、7题。

6,Whatisthewomanlookingfor?

A.Aninformationoffice.B.ApolicestationC.Ashoerepairshop.

7.WhatistheTownGuideaccordingtotheman?

A.Abrochure.B.Anewspaper.C.Amap.

听第7段材料,回答第8、9题。

8.Whatdoesthemansayabouttherestaurant?

A.It'sthebiggestonearound.

B.Itoffersmanytastydishes.

C.It'sfamounsforitsseafood.

9.Whatwillthewomanprobablyorder?

A.FriedfishB.Roastchicken.C.Beefsteak.

听第8段材料,回答第10至12题。

10.WherewillMr.Whitebeat11otlock?

A.AttheofficeB.Attheairport.C.Attherestaurant.

11.WherewillMr.Whiteprobablydoatoneintheafternoon?

A.Receliveaguest.B.Haveameeting.C.Readareport.

12.WherewillMissWilsonseeMr.White?

A.Atlunchtime.

B.Lateintheafternoon.

C.Thenextmorning.

听第9段材料,回答第13至16题。

13.WhyisBiligoingtoGermany?

A.Toworkonaproject.

B.TostudyGerman.

C.Tostartanewcompany.

14.WhatdidthewomandislikeaboutGermany?

A.Theweather.B.Thefood.C.Theschools.

15.WhatdoesBillhopetodoabouthisfamily?

A.BringthemtoGermany.

B.LeavetheminEngland.

C.Visittheminafewmonths.

16.Whatistheprobablerelationshipbetweenthespeakers?

A.Fellow-travelers.B.Colleagues.C.Classmates.

听第10段材料,回答第17至20题。

17.WhendiditrainlasttimeinJuarez?

A.Threedaysago.B.Amonthago.C.Ayearago.

18.Whatseasonisitnowinjuarez?

A.Spring.B.SummerC.Autumn.

19.Whataretheelderlyadvisedtodo?

A.Takeawalkinafternoon.

B.Keeptheirhomescool.

C.Drinkplentyofwater.

2O.Whatisthespeakerdoing?

A.Hostingaradioprogram.

B.Conductingaseminar.

C.Forecastingtheweather*.

第二部分:英语知识运用(共两节,满分35分)

第一节:单项填空(共15小题;每小题1分,满分15分)

请阅读下面各题,从题中所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项,并在答题卡

上将该项涂黑。

例:Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachildheorshewants.

A.howeverB.whateverC.whicheverD.whenever

答案是B。

例:Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachildheorshewants.

A.howeverB.whateverC.whicheverD.whenever

答案是Bo

21.ManyChinesebrands,theirreputationsovercenturies,arefacingnewchallenges

fromthemodemmarket.

A.havingdevelopedB.beingdevelopedC.developedD.developing

22.notforthesupportoftheteachers,thestudentcouldnotovercomeherdifficulty.

A.ItwereB.WereitC.ItwasD.Wasit

23.LocatedtheBeltmeetstheRoad,JiangsuwillcontributemoretotheBeltandRoad

construction.

A.whyB.whenC.whichD.where

24.ThepublicationofGreatExpectations,whichbothwidelyreviewedandhighly

praised,strengthenedDickensstatusasaleadingnovelist.

A.isB.areC.wasD.were

25.WorkingwiththemedicalteaminAfricahasthebestinherasadoctor.

A.heldoutB.broughtoutC.pickedoutD.givenout

26.Wechoosethishotelbecausethepriceforanighthereisdownto$20,halfofitused

tocharge.

A.thatB.whichC.whatD.how

27.Hehurriedhome,neveroncelookingbacktoseeifhe.

A.wasbeingfollowedB.wasfollowingC.hadbeenfollowedD.followed

28.In1963theUNsetuptheWorldFoodProgramme,oneofpui-posesistorelieve

worldwidestarvation.

A.whichB.ifsC.whoseD.whom

29.OnlyfiveyearsafterSteveJobs*death,smart-phonesdefeatedPCsinsales.

A.controversialB.contractoryC.confidentialD.conventional

30.Aquickreviewofsuccessesandfailuresattheendofyearwillhelpyouryear

ahead.

A.shapeB.switchC.stretchD.sharpen

31.He'sbeeninformedthatheforthescholarshipbecauseofhisacademicbackground.

A.hasn'tqualifiedB.hadn'tqualifiedC.doesn'tqualifyD.wasn'tqualifying

32.Determiningwhereweareoursurroundingsremainsanessentialskillforour

survival.

A.incontrasttoB.indefenseofC.infaceofD.inrelationto

33.------WhatdoesthestuffonyourT-shirtmean?

------it'snothing.Justsomething.

A.asclearasdayB.offthetopofmyhead

C.undermynoseD.beyondmywildestdreams

34.Thedisappearanceofdinosaursisnotnecessarilycausedbyastronomicalincidents.But

explanations

arehardtofind.

A.alternativeB.aggressiveC.ambiguousD.apparent

35.------GoingtowatchtheWomen?sVolleyballMatchonWednesday?

------!Willyougowithme?

A.YouthereB.YoubetC.YougotmeD.Youknowbetter

第二节:完形填空(共20小题;每小题1分,满分20分)

请阅读下面短文,从短文后各题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项,并在

答题卡上将该项涂黑。

ForalongtimeGabrieldidn'twanttobeinvolvedinmusicatall.Inhisfirstyearsofhigh

school,Gabrielwouldlookpityinglyatmusicstudents,36acrossthecampuswiththeir

heavyinstrumentcases.37atschoolforpracticehours38anyoneelsehadtobe

there.Hesworetohimselfto39music.ashehatedgettingtoschoolextraearly.

_40__,oneday,inthemusicclassthatwas_41_ofhisschooPsstandardcurriculum,

hewasplayingidly(随意地)onthepianoandfoundit42___topickouttunes.Witha

sinkingfeeling,herealizedthatheactually_43_doingit.Hetriedtihidehis_44_pleasurefrom

themusicleather,whohad_45_overtolisten.Hemightnothavethisparticularlywell,—46—the

teachertoldGabrielthathehadagood___47_andsuggestedthatGabrielgointothemusin

store-roomtiseeifanyoftheinstrumentsthere_48_him.Therehedecidedtogivethecello(大

提琴)a—49—.Whenhebeganpracticing,hetookitvery_50—.Buthequicklyfoundthathe

lovedplayingthisinstrument,andwas_51—topracticingitsothatwithinacoupleofmonthshe

wasplayingreasonablywell.

This_52—,ofcourse,thathearrivedatschoolearlyinthemorning,_53_hisheavy

instrumentcaseacrossthecampustothe_54—looksofthenon-musicianshehadleft_55.

36.A.travellingB.marchingC.pacing□.struggling

37.A.risingupB.comingupC.drivingupD.turningup

38.A.beforeB.afterC.untilD.since

39.A.betrayB.acceptC.avoid0.appreciate

40.A.ThereforeB.HoweverC.ThusD.Moreover

41.A.partB.natureC.basisD.apirit

42.A.complicateB.safeC.confusingD.easy

43.A.missedB.dislikedC.enioyed0.denied

44.A.transparentB.obviousC.false0.similar

45.A.runB.joggedC.jumpedD.wandered

46.A.becauseB.butC.thoughD.so

47.A.earB.tasteC.heartD.voice

48.A.occurredB.tooktoC.appealedD.heldto

49.A.changeB.chanceC.missionD.function

50.A.seriouslyB.proudlyC.casually0.admitted

51.A.committedB.usedC.limited0.admitted

52.A.provedB.showedC.stressedD.meant

53.A.pushingB.draggingC.liftingD.rushing

54.A.admiringB.pityingC.annoyingD.teasing

55.A.overB.asideC.behindD.out

第三部分:阅读理解(共15小题;每小题2分,满分30分)

请阅读下列短文,从短文后各题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项,并

在答题卡上将该项涂黑。

A

CHRONOLOGICA

------TheUnbelievableYearsthatDefinedHistory

DIDYOUKNOW…

•>In105ADpaperwasinventedinChina?

WhenColumbusdiscoveredtheNewWorld?

•3*TheBritishMuseumopenedin1759?

CHRONOLOGICAisafascinatingjourneythroughtime,fromthe

foundationofRometothecreationoftheinternet.Alongthewayare

talesofkingsandqueens,hotairballoons…andmonkeysinspace.

Travelthrough100ofthemostunbelievableyearsinworldhistory

andledrnwhybeingaRomanEmperorwasn'talwaysasgoodasit

sounds,howtheHundredYears'Wardidn'tactuallylastfor100years

andwhySpencerPercevalholdsaratherunfortunaterecord.

CHRONOLOGICAisaninformativeandentertainingtourintohistory,beautifullyillustratedand

fullofunbelievablefacts.WhileCHRONOLOGICAtellsthestoriesoffamous

peopleinhistorysuchasThomasEdisonandAlexandertheGreat,thisbookalso

givesabaccountofthelivesoflesser-knownindividualsincludingtheexploeer

MungoParkandsculptorGutzonBorglum.

Thiscompletebutbriefhistoricalcollectioniscertaintoentertainreadersyoung

andold,andguaranteedtopresenteven

thebiggesthistoryloverwithsomgthing

new!

56.WhatisCHRONOLOGICAaccordingtothenext?

A.Abiography.B.Atravelguide.

C.Ahistorybook.D.Asciencefiction.

57.HowdoesthewriterrecommendCHRONOLOGICAtoreaders?

A.Bygivingdetailsofitscollection.

B.Byintroducingsomeofitscontents.

C.Bytellingstoriesatthebeginning.

D.Bycomparingitwithotherbooks.

Beforebirth,babiescantellthedifferencebetweenloudsoundsandvoices.Theycaneven

distinguishtheirmother'svoicefromthatofafemalestranger.Butwhenitcomestoembryonic

learning(胎教),birdscouldruletheroost.AsrecentlyreportedinTheAuk:Ornithological

Adrances,somemotherbirdsmayteachtheiryoungtosingevenbeforetheyhatch(孵化)。

New-bornchickscanthenimitatetheirmom'scallwithinafewdaysofeneringtheworld.

Thiseducationalmethodwasfirstobservedin2012bySoniaKieindorfer,abiologistatFlinders

UniversityinSouthAustralia,andhercollcagues.FemakeAustraliansuperbfairywrenswere

foundtorepeatonesoundoverandoveragainwhilehatchingtheirerrs,Whentheerrswere

hatched,thebabybirdsmadethesimilarchiiptotheirmothers—asoundthatservedastheirregular

“feedmel^call.

Tofindoutifthespecialqualitywasmorewidespreadinbirds,theresearcherssoughtthe

red-backedfairywren,anotherspeciesofAustraliansongbird.Firsttheycollectedsounddatdfrom

67nestsinfoursitesinQueenslangbeforeandafterhatching,Thentheyidentifiedbeggingcalls

byanalyzingtheorderandnumberofnotes.Acomputeranalysisblindlycomparedcallsproduced

bymothersandchicks,rankingthembysimilarity.

Itturnsoutthatbabyred-backedfairywrensalsoemergechirpingliketheirmoms.Andthemore

frequentlymothershadcalledtotheirerrs,themoresimilarwerethebabies,beggingcalls.In

addition,theteamsetupaseparateexperimentthatsuggestedthatthebabybirdsthatmostclosely

imitatedtheirmom'svoicewererewardedwiththemostfood.

Thisobservationhintsthateffectiveembryoniclearningcouldsignalneurological(神经系统

的)strengthsofchildrentoparents.Anevolutionaryinferencecanthenbedrawn."Asaparent,do

youinvestinqualitychildren,ordoyouinvestinchildrenthatareinneed?,,Kleindorferasks.^Our

resultssuggestthattheymightbegoingforquality.^^

58.TheunderlinedphraseinParagraph1means””.

A上etheworstB.bethebest

C.betheasbadD.bejustasgood

59.WhatareKleindorfer^findingsbasedon?

A.Similaritiesbetweenthecallsmomsandchicks.

B.TheobservationoffairywrensacrossAustralia.

C.ThedatacollectedfromQueensland'slocals.

□,Controlledexperimentsonwrensandotherbirds.

60.Embryoniclearninghelpsmotherbirdstoidentifythebabybirdswhich.

A.canreceivequalitysignalsB.areinneedoftraining

C.fittheenvironmentbetterD.maketheloudestcall

c

Anewcommoditybringsaboutahighlyprofitable,fast-growingindustry,urgingantitrust(反

垄断)regulatorstostepintocheckthosewhocontrolitsflow.Acenturyago,theresourcein

questionwasoil.Nowsimilarconcernsaresbeingraisedbythegiants(巨头)thatdealindata,the

oilofthedigitalage.ThemostvaluablefirmsareGoogle,Amazon,FacebookandMicrosoft.All

lookunstoppable.

Suchsituationshaveledtocallsforthetechgiantstobebrokenup.Butsizealoneisnota

crime,Thegiants'successhasbenefitedconsumers.Fewwanttolivewithoutsearchenginesora

quickdelivery,Farfromchargingconsumershighprices,manyoftheseservicesarefree(users

pay,ineffect,byhandingoveryetmoredata).Andtheappearanceofnew-borngiantssuggests

thatnewcomerscanmakewaves,too.

Butthereiscauseforconcern.Theinternethasmadedataabundant,all-presentandfarmore

valuable,changingthenatureofdataandcompetition.Googleinitiallyusedthedatacollected

fromuserstotargetadvertisingbetter.Butrecentlyithasdiscoveredthatdatacanbeturnedinto

newservices:translationandvisualrecognition,tobesoldtoothercompanies.Internetcompanies5

controlofdatagivesthemenormouspower.Sotheyhavea"God'seyeview"ofactivitiesintheir

ownmarketsandbeyond.

Thisnatureofdatamakestheantitrustmeasuresofthepastlessuseful.Breakingupfirms

likeGoogleintofivesmalloneswouldnotstopremakingthemselves:intime,oneofthemwould

becomegreatagain.Arethinkisrequired—andasanewapproachstartstobecomeapparent,two

ideasstandout.

Thefirstisthatantitrustauthoritiesneedtomoveformtheindustrialageintothe21stcentury.

Whenconsideringamerger(兼并),forexample,theyhavetraditionallyusedsizetodetermine

whentostepin.Theynowneedtotakeintoaccounttheextentoffirms'dataassets(资产)when

assessingtheimpactofdeals.Thepurchasepricecouldalsobeasignalthatanestablished

companyisbuyinganew-bormthreat.Whenthistakesplace,especiallywhenanew-born

companyhasnorevenuetospeakof,theregulatorsshouldraiseredflags.

Thesecondprincipleistoloosenthecontrolthatprovidersofon-lineserviceshaveoverdata

andgivemoretothosewhosupplythem.Companiescouldbeforcedtoconsumerswhatinformati

ontheyholdandhowmanymoneytheymakeformit.Govemmentscouldorderthesharingofcert

ainkindsofdata,withusers*consent.

RestartingantitrustfortheinformationagewillnotbeeasyButifgovernmentsdon'twantsa

dataoconomybyafewgiants,theymustactsoon.

61.Whyisthereacalltobreakupgiants?

A.Theyhavecontrolledthedatamarket

B.Theycollectenormousprivatedata

C.Theynolongerprovidefreeservices

D.Theydismissedsomenew-borngiants

62.WhatdoesthetechnologicalinnovationinParagraph3indicate?

A.Datagiants9technologyisveryexpensive

B.Google'sideaispopularamongdatafirms

C.Datacanstrengthengiants'controllingposition

D.Datacanbeturnedintonewservicesorproducts

63.Bypayingattentiontofirms'dataassets,antitrustregulatorscould.

A.killanewthreat

B.avoidthesizetrap

C.favourbiggerfirms

D.chargehigherprices

64.Whatisthepurposeoflooseningthegiants'controlofdata?

A.Bigcompaniescouldrelievedatasecuritypressure.

B.Governmentscouldrelievetheirfinancialpressure.

C.Consumerscouldbetterprotecttheirprivacy.

D.Smallcompaniescouldgetmoreopportunities.

D

OldProblem,NewApproaches

Whilecleanenergyisincreasinglyusedinourdailylife,globalwarningwillcontinuefor

somedecadesafterCO2emissions(排放)peak.Soevenifemissionweretobegindecreasetoday,

wewouldstillfacethechallengeofadaptingtoclimate.HereIwillstresssomesmarterandmore

creativeexamplesofclimateadaptation.

Whenitcomestoadaptation,itisimportanttounderstandthatclimatechangeisaprocess.

Wearethereforenottalkingaboutadaptingtoanewstandard,buttoaconstantlyshiftingsetof

conditions.Thisiswhyinpartatleast,theUSNationalClimateAssessmentsaysthati^thereisno

'one-sizefitairadaptation."Nevertheless,therearesomeactionsthatoffermuchandcarrylittle

riskorcost.

Aroundtheworldpeopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries.

FloodshavesomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MohammedRezwansaw

opportunitywhereotherssawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboats

thatserverasfloatinglibraries,schools,andhealthclinics,andareequipmentwithsolarpanels

andothercommunicationfacilities.Rezwaniscreatingfloatingconnecticity(连体)toreplace

floodedroadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmorefundamentallevel:hisstaff

peoplehowtomakefloatinggardensfishpondspreventatarcationduringthewetseason.

Aroundtheworld,peopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries,

FllodshavebecomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MobammedRezwansaw

opportunilywhereotherssawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboats

thatserveasfloatinglibraries,schoods,andhealthclinics,andareequippedwithsolarpanelsand

othercommunicatingfacilities.RezwaniscreatingfloatingconmetivityC连接)toreplaceflooded

roadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmorefundamentallevel:hisstaffshowpeople

howtomakefloatinggardensandfishpondstopreventstarvationduringthewetseason.

ElsewhereinAsiaevenmoreastonishingactionsarebeingtaken.Chewang.Nophellivesina

mountaionousregioninIndia,whereheisknownastheIceMan.Thelossofglaciers(冰川)there

duetoglobalwarmingrepresentsanenormousthreattoagriculture.Withouttheglaciers,water

willarriveintheriversattimeswhenitcandamagecrops.Norphefsinspirationcomefrom

seeingthewasteofwateroverwinter,whenitwasnotneeded.Hedirectedthewastedwaterinto

shallowbasinswhereitfroze,andwasstoreduntilthespring.Hisfieldsoficesupplyperfectly

timedirrigation(灌,既)water.Havingcreatedninesuchicereserves.Nophelcalculatesthathehas

storedabout200,000m3ofwater.Climatechangeisacontinuingprocess,soNorheFsice

reserveswillnotlastforever.Warmingwillovertakethem.Butheisprovidingafewyearsduring

whichthefarmerswill,perhaps,beabletofindothermeansofadapting.

IncreasingEarth'sreflectivenesscancooltheplanet.InsouthernSpainthesuddenincreaseof

greenhouses(whichreflectlightbacktospace)haschangedthewarmingtrendlocally,and

actuallycooledtheregion.WhileSpainasawholeisheatingupquickly,temperaturesnearthe

greenhouseshavedecreased.Thisexampleshouldactasaninspirationforallcities.Bypainting

buildingswhite,citiesmayslowdownthewarmingprocess.

InPeni,localfarmersaroundamountainwithaglacierthathasalreadyfallenvictimto

climatechangehavebegunpaintingtheentiremountainpeakwhiteinthehopethattheadded

reflectivenesswillrestorethelife-givingice.Theoutcomeisstillfarfromclear,ButtheWorld

Bankhasincludedtheprojectonitsof4100ideastosavetheplanet”.

Moreordinaryformsofadaptationarehappeningeverywhere.Afriendofmineownsanarea

oflandinwesternVictoria.Overfivegenerationsthelandhasbeenloowetforcropping.But

duringthepastdecadedecliningrainfallhasallowshimtoplanthighlyprofitablecrops.Farmers

inmanycountriesarealsoadaptinglikethis—eitherbygrowingnewproduce,orbygrowingthe

samethingsdifferently.Thisiscommonsense,Butsomesuggestionsforadaptingarenot.When

thepollutingindustriesarguethatwe'velostthebattletocontrolcarbonpollutionandhaveno

choicebuttoadapt,it'sanonsensedesignedtomakethecasefbrbusinessasusual.

Humanbeingswillcontinuetoadapttothechangingclimateinbothordinaryandastonishing

ways.Butthemostsensibleformofadaptationissurelytoadaptourenergysystemstoemitless

carbonpollution.Afterall,ifweadaptintheway,wemayavoidtheneedtochangeinsomany

others.

65.TheunderlinedpartinParagraph2implies.

A.adaptationisanever-changingprocess

B.thecostofadaptationvarieswithtime

C.globalwarmingaffectsadaptationforms

D.adaptationtoclimatechangeischallenging

66.WhatisspecialwithregardtoRezwan'sproject?

A.Theprojectreceivesgovernmentsupport.

B.Differentorganizationsworkwitheachother.

C.Hisorganizationmakesthebestofabadsituation.

D.Theprojectconnectsfloodedroadsandhighways.

67.WhatdidtheIceMandotoreducetheeffectofglobalwarming?

A.Storingiceforfutureuse.

B.Protectingtheglaciersfrommelting.

C.Changingtheirrigationtime.

D.Postponingthemeltingoftheglaciers.

68.WhatdowelearnfromthePeruexample?

A.Whitepaintisusuallysafeforbuildings.

B.Theglobalwarmingtreadcannotbestopped.

C.Thiscountryisheatinguptooquickly.

D.Sunlightreflectionmayrelieveglobalwarming.

69.Accordingtotheauthor,pollutingindustriesshould.

A.adapttocarbonpollution

B.planthighlyprofitablecrops

C.leavecarbonemissionalone

D.fightagainstcarbonpollution

70.What'stheauthor'spreferredsolutiontoglobalwarming?

A.settingupanewstandard.

B.Readucingcarbonemission.

C.Adaptingtoclimatechange.

D.Monitoringpollutingindustries.

第四部分:任务型阅读(共10小题;每小题1分,满分10分)

请阅读下面短文,并根据所读内容在文章后表格中的空格里填入7个最恰当的单词。

注意:请将答案写在答题卡上相应题号的横线上•每个空格只填一个单词。

PopulationChange

Whyistheworld'spopulationgrowing?Theanswerisnotwhatyoumightthink.Thereason

fortheexplosionisnotthatpeoplehavebeenreproducinglikerabbits,butthatpeoplehave

stoppeddroppingdeadlikeflies.In1900,peoplediedattheaverageageof30.By2000theaverage

agewas65.Butwhileincreasinghealthwasatupicalfeatureofthe20thcentury,decliningbirthrate

couldbeadefiningoneofthe21st.

Statisticsshowthattheaveragenumberofbirthsperwomanhasfallenfrom4.9intheearly

1960sto2.5owadays.Furthermore,around50%oftheworld'spopulationliveinregionswherethe

figureisnowbelowthereplacementlevel(i.e.2.1birthsperwoman)andalmostalldeveloped

nationsareexperiencingsub-repalanementbirthrate.Youmightthinkthatdevelopingnations

wouldmakeuptheloss(especiallysince80%oftheworld'speoplenowliveinsuchnations),but

you'dbewrong,Decliningbirthrateisamajorprobleminmanydevelopingregionstoo,which

mightcausecatastrophicglobalshortagesofworkforcewithinafewdecades.

AgreatdeclineinyoungworkforceislikelytooccurinChina,forinstance.Whatdoesit

imply?First,Chinaneedstoundergorapideconomicdevelopmentbeforeapopulationdeclinehits

thecountry.Sencond,ifotherfactorssuchastechnologyremainconstant,economicgrowthand

materialexpectationswillfallwellbelowrecentstandardsandthiscouldinvitetrouble.

Russiaisanothercountrywithpopulationproblemsthatcouldbreakitseconomic

promise.Since1992thenumberofpeopledyinghasbeenbiggenthanthatofthosebeingbornby

amassive50%,Indeed

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