互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响基于动态面板GMM模型的实证分析

OverviewofthisartWiththerapiddevelopmentofinformationtechnothewideapplicationoftheInternet,Internetfinance,asanumberofusers,whichhasaprofoundimpactontherisktoftraditionalfinancialinstitutionssuchascommercialbanks.ThepurposeofthispaperistoexploretheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,aordertoprovideusefulreferencecommercialbanks'riskmanagement.ThispaperwillelaboprocessandimpactmechanismofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risktaking.ThroughacomparativeanalysisoftheindirectimpactofInternetfinanceonrisk-taking,layingaThispaperwillbuildadynamicpanelGMMmodeltobanks'risk-takingbyquantitativeanalysis.Intheprocessofmodelconstruction,variouscontrolvgovernancestructureofbanks,etc.,toensuretheaccuracyandBasedontheresultsofempiricalputforwardcorrespondingpolicysuggestionsandmeasureshelpcommercialbankopportunitiesbroughtbyInternetfinance.Thisarticlewillalsoreflectonandlookforwardtresearch,inordertoprovidereferenceandinspirationforoncommercialbanks'risk-takingthrouenlightenmentandsuggestionsfor二、文献综述risktaking.Inrecentyears,academiahasconductedalotofresearchontheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.ThesestudiesexploredthemechanismconsequencesofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks’Internetfinancehasincreasedtherisktakingmarketshare,therebyincreasingtheirrisk-taking.Theandincreasedtheriskexposureofbanks.另一方面，也有学者认为互联网金融对商业银行的风险承担具有正面影响。互联网金融通过技术创新和模式创新，为商业银行提供了更多的风险管理工具和手段。商业银行可以通过与互联网金融的合作，提高自身的风险管理水平，降低风险承担。同时，互联网金融的发展也促进了金融市场的竞争，推动了商业银行的改革和创新，提高了其风险抵御能力。Ontheotherhand,somescholarsbelievethfinancehasapositiveimpactonbanks.Internetfinanceprovidesmfinance,commercialbankscanimprovetheirfinancialmarket,promotedthereformandinnovationofcommercialbanks,andimprovedtheirr联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响。这种模型能够有效地控制内生性问题，提高估计的准确性。通过对历史数据的分析，学者们发现互Internetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-takinestimationaccuracy.ThroughtheanalysisofhistoricalscholarsfoundthatthedevelopmentofInternethaveasignificantimpactonthebanks,butthedirectionandextentofthisimpactvariedwithTheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercrisk-takingisacneedstofurtherexpInternetfinanceandcommercialbanks,andhowtopromotethecoordinateddevelopmentofInternetfinanceandcommercialbanksonthepremiseofensur本文采用动态面板GMM(GeneralizedMethodofMoments)模是一种基于矩估计的面板数据分析方法，它通过构造样本矩，并利用样本矩的线性组合对参数进行估计，具有较好的小样本特性和稳健性。在动态面板模型中，我们引入了被解释变量的滞后项作为解释变量，以控制可能存在的动态效应和内生性问题。financeoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.Theconstructssamplemomentsandestimamodel,weintroducethelaggedtermofthedependentvariableastheexplanatoryvariabletofinancialdevelopmentindex,commercialbanks'risktakingInternetFinanceResearchCenterofPekingUniversity,whichcomprehensivelyconsidersvariousaspectsofInternetfinance,includingInternetpayment,onlincrowdfunding,etc.,andishighlyauthoritativeandrepresentative.Theriskbearingindicatorsofcnon-performingloancomprehensivelyreflecttheriskbearinglevelofcommercialvariablestoeliminatetheimpactofddata.Intermsofmodelsetting,weseltothemodeltoensureitsapplicabilityandByusingthedynamicpanelGMMmodel,combinedwithin-depthanalysisoftheimpactofInternetfinancecommercialbanks'risktaking,withaviewtoprovidingusefulreferenceandenlightenmentforthehealthydevelopmentofChina'sfinancialmarketdataofmajorcommercialbanksinChina.Intermsofvariableselection,therisktakingofcommercialbanksistakenasexplanatoryvariable,andthedevtime,aseriesofcontrolvariablesthatmayaffecttherisktakingofbanks,suchasbanksize,capitaladequacyratio,profitabilityandliquidity,arecontrol为了更准确地捕捉互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的动态影响，本研究采用动态面板GMM模型。该模型能够处理面板数据中的内生性问题和动态效应，使估计结果更为稳健。模型设定如下：InordertomoreaccuratelycapturethedynamicimpactofRisk_it=a+β1*IFT_it+β2*BankSize_itCapitalRatio_it+β4*Profitabi+β6*Risk_it-1+e_itRiskit=a+β1*IFT.it+βCapitalRatio_it+β4*Profitability_it+β5*Liquidity_it+β6*Risk其中，Risk_it表示第i家银行在第t年的风险承担水平，IFT_itCapitalRatioit、Profitability_it、Liquidity_it分别表示第iithbankinyeart,IFT_itreferstothedevelopmentdegreeofinternetfinanceoftheithbCapitalRatio_it,Profitability_it,Liquidity_itrefertotheprofitabilityandliquidityoftheithbankinyeart,Risk_it-1referstotherisk-takingleveloftheit (1)互联网金融发展程度对商业银行风险承担具有显著影响。(1)ThedevelopmentofInternetthedevelopmentofInternetfinancewillsignificantlyincreasethelevelofrisktakingofcommercialbanks.ThismaybebecausetherapiddevelopmentofInternetfinancehas(2)在控制变量中，银行规模和资本充足率对商业银行风险承担具有显著的负向影响，而盈利能力和流动性对商业银行风险承担的影响则不显著。这表明，较大的银行规模和较高的资本充足率有助于降低商业银行的风险承担水平。ratiocanhelpreducetherisk-takinglevelofcommercial(3)动态面板GMM模型的估计结果还显示，上一期的商业银行alsoshowthatthepreviousperiod'slevelofcommercialbankrisk-takinghasasignificadevelopmentofInternetfinancewillincreasethelevelofrisktakingofcommercialbanks.Therefore,inthecontextoftherapiddevelopmentofInternetfinance,commercialbanksshouldstrengthenriskmanagementandimproveriskpreventiontheoccurrenceandspreadof五、结果讨论impactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,wefindthatthedevelopmentofInternetfinancehasindeedhadacertainimpactoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.T行的风险承担。这主要源于互联网金融的灵活性和创新性，使得部分资金从商业银行转向互联网金融平台，导致商业银行的信贷规模和市场份额受到一定冲击。同时，互联网金融产品的高收益率吸引了大量投资者，进一步加剧了商业银行的资金流失，从而增加了hasincreasedtherisktakingofcommercialcommercialbankstoInternetcommercialbanks.Atthesametime,thefurtherintensifyingthecapitaldrainofcommercialbanks,然而，从长期趋势来看，互联网金融的发展对商业银行的风险承金融推动了商业银行的数字化转型和创新发展，使其能够更好地适应市场变化和客户需求；二是互联网金融的发展促进了金融市场的竞争，推动了商业银行提高风险管理水平和服务质量；三是互联网金融与商业银行的深度融合，为商业银行提供了新的业务增长点和盈利模式，有助于降低其风险承担。malong-tefofcommercialbanks.Thisismainlyreaspects:First,Internetfinancehaspromotedthenablingthemtobetteradapttomarketchanneeds;Second,thedevelopmentofInternetfinancehaspromotedbankstoimprovetheirriskmanagemcommercialbankshasprovidedcommercialbankswithnew我们还发现不同类型的商业银行在面临互联网金融冲击时，风险承担的变化存在差异。国有大型商业银行由于其雄厚的资本实力和广泛的市场份额，能够更好地应对互联网金融的挑战，降低风险承担。而中小型商业银行由于规模较小、抗风险能力较弱，在面对互联网金融冲击时，风险承担可能会有所增加。Wealsofindthatdifferenttypesofcommercialbankshaveshocks.LargestacapitalstrengthandbroadmarkHowever,smallandmedium-sizedcommercialbanks,duetotheir互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响具有双重性。在短期内，互联网金融的兴起可能会增加商业银行的风险承担；但从长期来看，互联网金融的发展有助于推动商业银行的数字化转型和创新发展，降低其风险承担。因此，商业银行应积极应对互联网金融的挑战，加强风险管理和业务创新，以实现可持续发展。TheimpactofInternetfinanceonrisk-takingistwofold.financemayincreasetherisktakingofcommercialbankHowever,inthelongrun,thedevelopmentofInternetdevelopmentofcommercialbanksandreducetheir