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NIESR
MonthlyGDPTracker
UKEconomyontheRoadtoRecoveryin2024FollowingtheMildRecession
PaulaBejaranoCarboandHaileyLow
13March2024
"Today’sONSdataindicatethatmonthlyGDPgrewby0.2percentinJanuary2024,followingafallof0.1percentinDecember2023.Whilethisseemspositive,GDPfellby0.1percentinthethreemonthstoJanuary,inlinewithourforecastlastmonth.Inbroaderterms,UKeconomicgrowthhasbeennear-zerosince2022andGDPperheadremainslowerthanpre-Covid.Toescapethelow-growthtrap,structuralchangesareneeded,suchasanincreaseinpublicinvestment,particularlyininfrastructure,educationandhealth–whichwouldalsosupportgrowthinbusinessinvestment."
PaulaBejaranoCarbo
Economist,NIESR
-2-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
niesr.ac.uk
NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch
Mainpoints
•MonthlyGDPgrewby0.2percentinJanuary,followingacontractionof0.1percentinDecember.Thismonthlyfigurewasmainlydrivenbyincreasingoutputinconstructionandservices,particularlyretailandwholesaling.
•GDPcontractedby0.1percentinthethreemonthstoJanuaryrelativetothepreviousthree-monthperiod,inlinewithourpreviousforecast.Thiswasgeneratedbyanoutputfallinconstructionandproduction.
•WeforecastGDPtogrowby0.3percentinthefirstquarterof2024.Thisforecastremainsbroadlyconsistentwiththelonger-termtrendoflow,butstableeconomicgrowthintheUnitedKingdom(Figure1).
•Aswenotedinour
response
tolastweek’sSpringBudget,themeasuresimplementedintherelativelylow-keybudgetareunlikelytounlocktheUK’sgrowthandproductivityproblems.Toescapethelow-growthtrap,structuralchangesareneeded,suchasanincreaseinpublicinvestment,particularlyininfrastructure,educationandhealth–whichwouldalsosupportgrowthinbusinessinvestment.
Figure1-UKMonthlyGDP
-3-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Economicsetting
InourpreviousGDPtracker,publishedinJanuary,weobservedthatGDPcontractedby0.3percentinthefourthquarterof2023relativetothepreviousquarter,generatedbycontractionsinallmainsectors.Lookingatthelonger-termpicture,GDPgrowthhasbeennearzerosinceearly2022.Thisoutlookforeconomicgrowthisquitelowbyhistoricalstandards(Figure2).
Figure2-UKGDPgrowthtrends
Source:ONS,NIESRcalculations
Today’sdatasuggestthatmonthlyGDPgrewby0.2percentinJanuary,followingacontractionof0.1percentinDecember.Thismonthlyfigurewasmainlydrivenbyincreasingoutputinconstructionandservices,particularlyretailandwholesaling–withconsumersoptimisingretailspendingoverthefestiveperiod.ThisreturntogrowthinJanuarycouldbeaturningpointaftertheUnitedKingdomwasreportedtohaveenteredatechnicalrecessioninthesecondhalfof2023.WeforecastGDPtogrowby0.3percentinthefirstquarterof2024.
Tofurthercontextualisethenear-termoutlookforGDP,figure3comparesspendingandhiringindicatorstopre-pandemiclevels,whilefigure4recordsrecenttrendsinPMIs.HighfrequencycreditanddebitcardspendingindicatorsbegantheirseasonaluptickinNovember,peakingon22December,andplummetedthereafter–asisexpectedseasonally.Atthesametime,theservicesPMIcontinuestosuggestgrowthintheservicesector,thoughitfellslightlyfrom54.3inJanuaryto53.8inFebruary.Further,therecentONSretailsalesdatasuggestthatretailssalesvolumesreboundedby3.4percentinJanuary,followingarecordfallof3.3percentinDecember2023.TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKCompositePMI–whichcombinescomparableservicesandmanufacturingindices–increasedmarginallyfrom52.9inJanuaryto53inFebruary.Itisencouragingthatoverall,private-sectoroutputshowedsignsofexpansionin
-4-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Februaryfollowingayearmarkedbysubduedgrowth.Takentogether,theseearlyindicatorssuggestthat,thoughGDPgrowthwassubduedin2023,wecanbecautiouslyoptimisticthatGDPwillgrowin2024.
Figure3-Spendingandhiringindicators(weeklyindices)
Notes:(a)EnglandandWales.Debitandcreditcards(CHAPSbased):IndexFebruary2020=100,abackward
lookingseven-dayrollingaverage,non-seasonallyadjusted,nominalprices.Jobadverts:IndexFebruary2020=
100,weeklyaverage.EPCcertificates:IndexFebruary2020=100,four-weekrollingaverage,adjustedfortimingofholidays.
Source:ONS,BoE,Adzuna,MHCLG,NIESR
Figure4-RecenttrendsinPMIs
Sources:RefinitivDatastream,S&P
-5-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
NewsinlatestONSdata
ThemonthlyGDPdataforJanuarywerebetterthanwewereexpectinginlastmonth’sTracker,growingby0.2percentcomparedtoourforecastof0.1percentgrowth.GDPcontractedby0.1percentinthethreemonthstoJanuary,inlinewithourpreviousforecast.
Figure5-UKGDPgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)
Figure6showsaheatmapofthedatasurprisesacrosssectorsinthemonthlydata,relativetolastmonth’sGDPTracker,highlightingthesectorswherethesurprisesarelargerelativetothevolatilityoftheoutputdata.
Businessservicesandfinance
Government
Distribution,HotelsandRestaurantsTransport,StorageandCommunication
Manufacturing
Electricity
Extraction
WaterSupply,Sewerage,WasteManagement
Construction
Agriculture
Figure6-Surprisesinmonthlydata
12/2201/2302/2303/2304/2305/2306/2307/2308/2309/2310/2311/2312/2301/24
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.8
0.2
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.3
0.5
-1.0
0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.4
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.6
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.3
-0.8
0.7
-0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.3
1.0
-0.9
-0.3
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
0.3
-0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.7
-1.0
-0.6
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.5
-0.4
-1.8
-0.4
-0.8
-0.5
-1.1
-1.1
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
2.0
1.0
belowexpectationaboveexpectation
2
1
-3
-10
Note:Cellsshowforecasterrorsasafractionofthestandarddeviationoferrorsforeachseries.
FormoreinformationonourforecastestimatesrelativetoONSdata,pleaseseethe‘HealthWarning’sectionbelow.
-6-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Sectoraldetail
GDPcontractedinthethreemonthstoJanuary,drivenbycontractionsintheconstructionandmanufacturingsectors,withnogrowthintheservicessectortooffsetthesedeclines(Figure7).
Ourforecastforthefirstquarterof2024seestheservicesectordrivinggrowth.
Figure7-ContributionstoquarterlyGDPgrowth(percentagepoints)
Services(80percentofGDP)
Thesurveybalancespointtoimprovedactivityintheservicessectoratthestartof2024,asshownbythesurveyindicatorsinfigures4and8.TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKServicesPMIreportedabalanceof53.8inFebruary,decreasingslightlyfrom54.3inJanuary.Surveyrespondentscitedincreaseddemandinthissector,asnotedbyincreasesinnewordervolumesandtotalordervolumes,partiallyresultingfromrisingbusinessandconsumerconfidence.ThePMIreportnotesthatsomefirmsalsocitedtheprospectoflowerinterestratesasafactordrivingaturnaroundincustomerdemandandincreasedconfidence.
Altogether,weforecastgrowthof0.2percentintheservicessectorinthefirstquarterof2024.
-7-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Figure8-ONSservicesectorgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)comparedwithswathe
ofbusinesssurveybalances(standardised)
Note:TheshadedswatheshowsthehighestandlowestvalueseachmonthofarangeofbusinesssurveybalancesthathavebeenstandardisedsothattheyhavethesamemeanandstandarddeviationasthequarterlygrowthoftheONSseries.
Source:ONS,CBI,Markit,BankofEnglandAgents,EC,NIESRcalculations.
Construction(sixpercentofGDP)
TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKConstructionPMIsurveyregisteredanincreasefrom48.8inJanuaryto49.7inFebruary,itshighestlevelsinceAugust2023andonlymarginallybelowtheneutral50(whichindicatescontractingoutput).Nonetheless,thePMIbalancestillmarksthesixthconsecutivemonththisbalanceregistersbelowtheneutral50.Housebuildingsawthebiggestturnaroundinbusinessactivity,recordinganindexof49.8,upfrom44.2.SurveyrespondentsnotedthatimprovedmarketconditionsandincreasedclientconfidenceledtothisspurinactivityinFebruary,withtotalnewworkincreasingforthefirsttimeinsixmonths.Thatthisoccurredwhileinterestratesremainattheirpeakisoptimisticfortheinterest-sensitiveconstructionsector.
Weforecastgrowthinthissectortoflatlineinthefirstquarterof2024.
Production(14percentofGDP)
Weforecastproductionsectoroutputtogrowby0.2percentinfirstquarterof2024,thoughoutputinthissectorisvolatileanddifficulttopredictwithaccuracyonaquarterlybasis.Theproductionsectorcomprisesmanufacturing;miningandquarrying(whichincludesoilandgasextraction);electricity,gas,steamandairconditioning;andwatersupplyandsewerage.The
-8-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
largestofthesesectorsaremanufacturing,accountingfor10percentofGDP,andminingandquarrying,accountingfor1percentofGDP.
Manufacturing
TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKmanufacturingPMIroseslightlyfrom47inJanuaryto47.5inFebruary,representingthe19thconsecutivemonththissectorhascontracted.Thissustaineddeclinehasbeendrivenbyacontinuingcombinationofweakdomesticandexportdemand,tightfinancialconditions,erodingconsumerconfidence,andapreferenceforreducedinventoryholdings(asacashflow-improvingmeasure).Indeed,contractionswereregisteredforfouroutofthefivePMIsubcomponents(neworders,output,employmentandstocksofpurchases),indicatingtheextenttowhichthissectorremainssubdued.
However,weexpecttoseethissectorgrowby0.7percentinthefirstquarterof2024relativetothepreviousquarter.
Miningandquarrying
Miningandquarrying(extraction)isasmallbuterraticcomponentofindustrialproductionthatcanhaveaninfluenceonoverallGDPgrowth.Weforecastthissectortocontractby1.9percentinthefirstquarterof2024.
Figure9-ONSmanufacturingsectorgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)
comparedwithswatheofbusinesssurveybalances(standardised)
Note:TheshadedswatheshowsthehighestandlowestvalueseachmonthofarangeofbusinesssurveybalancesthathavebeenstandardisedsothattheyhavethesamemeanandstandarddeviationasthequarterlygrowthoftheONSseries.
Source:ONS,CBI,Markit,BankofEnglandAgents,EC,NIESRcalculations.
-9-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Table1-SummaryTableofGDPgrowth(2019=100)
IndexofServices-Components
IndexofProduction-Components
2019=100
GDPindex
Indexof
Services
Business
servicesand
finance
Governmentandotherservices
Distribution,HotelsandRestaurants
Transport,Storage
and
Communications
IndexofProduction
Manufacturing
Electricity,
gas,steamand
air
conditioning
MiningandQuarrying
WaterSupply,
Sewerageand
Waste
Management
Indexof
Construction
Agriculture
Latestweights
1000
796
338
220
134
103
135
102
15
6
13
62
7
Jan-23
102.5
104.0
104.9
101.6
100.4
110.8
94.0
100.3
63.4
64.7
105.8
104.4
85.5
Feb-23
102.6
104.0
105.2
101.7
100.1
109.5
93.9
100.3
62.4
67.7
104.2
107.1
85.6
Mar-23
102.2
103.5
105.0
102.0
98.5
108.0
94.6
100.9
64.5
65.6
106.6
106.9
85.6
Apr-23
102.4
103.7
104.9
101.9
99.7
108.4
94.8
101.5
63.3
65.6
104.6
106.1
85.5
May-23
102.1
103.6
104.5
102.5
99.1
108.4
93.9
101.0
60.2
65.8
102.7
105.8
85.5
Jun-23
102.9
103.8
104.5
103.0
99.8
108.9
96.4
104.2
61.5
64.9
104.1
107.5
85.5
Jul-23
102.3
103.4
104.4
102.6
99.4
106.7
95.4
102.9
61.8
64.8
102.9
107.0
85.6
Aug-23
102.3
103.5
104.6
102.8
99.4
106.9
95.1
102.4
62.2
66.7
101.3
104.5
85.7
Sep-23
102.3
103.5
104.3
103.4
99.0
106.9
95.0
102.0
64.0
64.7
102.6
104.5
85.8
Oct-23
101.8
103.2
104.3
102.6
99.0
106.0
93.7
100.7
60.9
63.6
103.6
104.5
85.8
Nov-23
102.1
103.4
104.4
102.8
99.3
106.8
94.2
101.5
60.8
63.9
102.5
104.5
85.8
Dec-23
102.0
103.3
104.8
102.3
98.0
107.1
94.7
102.3
61.5
62.7
102.1
104.5
85.8
Jan-24
102.2
103.5
104.6
102.8
99.2
106.6
94.5
102.3
61.8
61.9
99.9
104.5
86.0
Feb-24
102.2
103.5
104.9
102.8
98.9
107.2
94.3
102.2
61.2
62.3
100.7
104.5
86.3
Mar-24
102.3
103.6
105.1
102.7
98.9
107.5
94.4
102.2
61.7
62.4
101.1
104.5
86.5
Percentagechange,3monthsonprevious3months
Jan-23
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.4
0.5
-5.6
0.3
0.6
-0.4
Feb-23
0.3
0.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.1
1.1
0.0
0.6
1.2
-9.3
0.0
0.8
-0.1
Mar-23
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.8
1.2
0.1
0.6
1.4
-8.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
Apr-23
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.7
-0.9
-0.3
0.4
0.9
0.6
-4.4
-0.6
1.2
0.1
May-23
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.5
0.9
-0.9
-2.1
-0.6
0.3
0.0
Jun-23
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.7
-0.1
-0.8
0.9
1.7
-2.8
-0.9
-1.6
0.3
-0.1
Jul-23
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.8
0.0
-0.6
0.8
1.8
-3.5
-1.7
-1.8
0.1
0.0
Aug-23
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.7
0.4
-0.7
1.3
2.0
-1.3
-0.3
-1.8
0.1
0.1
Sep-23
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.5
-0.3
-1.6
0.1
0.2
1.7
-0.1
-1.5
-1.0
0.2
Oct-23
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
-1.3
-0.7
-1.0
2.0
-0.3
-0.7
-2.1
0.3
Nov-23
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.9
-1.4
-1.7
0.1
-2.1
0.2
-1.7
0.2
Dec-23
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
-1.0
-0.9
-2.6
-3.0
0.5
-0.8
0.1
Jan-24
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
-0.1
0.3
-1.6
-3.3
-1.0
0.0
0.1
Feb-24
0.0
0.1
0.4
-0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.2
0.9
-0.7
-2.7
-2.0
0.0
0.3
Mar-24
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.7
-1.9
-2.1
0.0
0.5
Percentagechange,monthonsamemonthinpreviousyear
Jan-23
1.1
1.5
2.3
-0.5
-0.1
4.3
-2.5
-1.9
-1.6
-15.7
-0.8
3.2
0.6
Feb-23
0.6
0.8
2.3
-0.9
-2.1
2.1
-2.3
-1.5
-3.2
-12.1
-2.1
5.8
0.0
Mar-23
0.2
0.2
1.7
-1.1
-3.1
1.5
-1.3
-0.5
1.7
-15.4
0.1
3.5
-0.3
Apr-23
0.6
0.7
1.5
0.8
-2.8
2.2
-0.9
0.8
-1.4
-16.9
-3.3
2.9
-0.5
May-23
-0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.8
-2.6
1.2
-2.1
-0.3
-4.7
-17.0
-3.4
0.3
-0.7
Jun-23
1.4
1.1
0.5
2.8
-1.2
2.7
1.5
4.1
-3.5
-16.1
-3.7
4.6
-0.8
Jul-23
0.4
0.2
0.2
2.0
-1.6
-1.5
1.0
3.6
-2.3
-20.1
-3.0
2.8
-0.8
Aug-23
0.3
0.1
0.0
2.0
-1.4
-1.5
1.2
2.9
-0.7
-8.6
-4.7
-0.1
-0.5
Sep-23
0.8
0.7
0.3
2.3
-0.2
-0.6
1.3
2.9
0.9
-13.4
-3.0
0.0
0.1
Oct-23
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0.9
-1.8
-2.1
-0.5
0.5
-1.6
-12.3
-0.5
-0.7
0.1
Nov-23
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
1.0
-1.4
-1.6
0.2
1.9
-1.7
-14.2
-3.1
-0.9
0.4
Dec-23
0.0
0.2
-0.1
2.1
-1.9
-0.6
0.6
2.3
-3.6
-8.8
-3.3
-1.7
0.4
Jan-24
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
1.2
-1.2
-3.8
0.5
2.0
-2.5
-4.3
-5.6
0.1
0.6
Feb-24
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
1.1
-1.2
-2.1
0.4
1.9
-2.0
-7.9
-3.3
-2.4
0.8
Mar-24
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.4
-0.4
-0.2
1.3
-4.3
-4.8
-5.2
-2.2
1.0
Percentagechange,monthonpreviousmonth
Jan-23
0.5
0.9
0.0
1.4
0.5
2.9
-0.1
0.3
-0.6
-6.0
0.1
-1.8
0.0
Feb-23
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
-0.3
-1.2
-0.1
0.0
-1.5
4.7
-1.5
2.6
0.1
Mar-23
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
0.3
-1.6
-1.4
0.7
0.6
3.2
-3.1
2.3
-0.2
0.0
Apr-23
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
1.2
0.4
0.2
0.6
-1.8
0.0
-1.9
-0.7
-0.1
May-23
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
0.6
-0.6
0.0
-0.9
-0.5
-4.9
0.3
-1.8
-0.3
0.0
Jun-23
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.7
0.5
2.7
3.2
2.1
-1.3
1.3
1.6
0.0
Jul-23
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-2.0
-1.0
-1.2
0.6
-0.2
-1.1
-0.5
0.1
Aug-23
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.3
-0.5
0.7
2.9
-1.6
-2.3
0.1
Sep-23
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.6
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
2.9
-3.0
1.3
0.0
0.1
Oct-23
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-0.8
-1.4
-1.3
-4.8
-1.7
0.9
0.0
0.0
Nov-23
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.8
-0.2
0.5
-1.0
0.0
0.0
Dec-23
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.5
-1.3
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.1
-1.8
-0.4
0.0
0.0
Jan-24
0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.5
1.2
-0.5
-0.2
0.0
0.5
-1.3
-2.2
0.0
0.2
Feb-24
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
-1.1
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.3
Mar-24
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.3
-10-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Healthwarning
TheNIESRGDPTrackerprovidesarollingmonthlyforecastforGDPgrowth.Ourfirstestimateofgrowthforanyparticularquarterstartsinthefirstmonthofthatquarterandisthenupdatedeachmonthuntilthefirstofficialreleaseinthesecondmonthofthefollowingquarter.So,forexample,ourfirstestimateofgrowthinthefirstquarterof2020waspublishedinJanuaryandthenupdatedfourtimes(inFebruary,March,April,andMay)beforetheONSpublisheditsfirstestimateforthefirstquarterof2020inMay2020.Inotherwords,wepublishfourestimatesofGDPforanyparticularquarterbeforetheofficialreleaseandchangethemasnewevidencebecomesavailable.Figure9showshowourshort-termforecastsforrecentquartershavechangedasnewinformationhasbecomeavailable.
Figure10-EvolutionoftheNIESRquarterlyGDPforecast(3monthsonprevious3months,
percent)
NIESR’sshort-termpredictionsofmonthlyGDPgrowtharebasedonbottom-upanalysisofrecenttrendsinthemonthlysub-componentsofGDP.Thesepredictionsareconstructedbyaggregatingstatisticalmodelforecastsoftensub-componentsofGDP.Thestatisticalmodelsthathavebeendevelopedmakeuseofpasttrendsinthedataaswellassurveyevidencetobuildshort-termpredictionsofthesub-componentsofmonthlyGDP.Theseprovideastatistically-basedguidetocurrenttrendsbasedonthelatestavailabledata.EachmonththesepredictionsareupdatedasnewONSdataandnewsurveysbecomeavailable.Table2showsthegrowthineachsectorforthethreemonthstoJanuary,comparedwiththepreviousthreemonths,againsttheforecastforeachinourFebruaryGDPTracker.
-11-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Table2-3-month-on-3-monthgrowthtoJanuary(percent)
GDP
IndexofServices
Indexof
Production
Manufacturing
Miningand
Quarrying
Indexof
Construction
Forecast
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.1
-2.8
0.0
Outturn
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-3.3
0.0
ItisimportanttostressthatthetimelierNIESRguidetoquarterlyGDPgrowthislessreliablethanthesubsequentONSdatareleasesasitsdatacontentislower,particularlyforestimatesofthecurrentquarterwhichinsomemonthswillbebasedonlyonforecastsratherthanharddata.Tomitigatethisissue,NIESRprovidesaguidetoaverageerrorsbasedonpastperformance.NIESRalsoprovidesclearguidanceonhowthelatestnewshascauseditsestimatesofGDPgrowthinthecurrentandprecedingquartertochangeandtherebyquantifyhowtheshort-termoutlookisbeingaffectedbyrecentdatareleases(see,e.g.,Figure5).
Asthebottom-upmethodologyforproducingestimatesofGDPgrowthforthecurrentandprecedingqu
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