PitchBook-2024年一季度定量视角：是否可以起飞？（英）

QUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

ClearedforTakeoff?

Q12024

ClearedforTakeoff?

Introduction

Venturecapitalinvestmentisacriticaldriverofinnovationandeconomic

growth,providingfundingtostartupswithhighgrowthpotential.TheVC

landscapehasundergonesignificantshiftsinrecentyears,influencedby

ever-evolvingmarketconditionsandemergingtechnologies.Whilestartups’needforVCinvestmentcontinuestooutpacethesupplyofdollarsavailable,thespreadofinvestmentactivityacrossverticalsunderscoresshifting

investorinterests.

Inthisreport,wedissectthedynamicsoftheverticalssoftwareasaservice(SaaS)andartificialintelligence&machinelearning(AI&ML)withinthe

venturecapitallandscape.Wecomparethechallenges,opportunities,andinvestmentprospectsoftheseverticalsoverthepastfiveyearsandevaluatetheoutlooksforeachwithinthecurrentmarketenvironment.ThedeclineofVCdealactivityhasleftmanySaaSstartupscapitalstarved,whileAI&MLremainsafocalpointofventuredollars.Thereleaseoftransformative

technologieslikeOpenAI’sChatGPTfurtherfueledinvestorinterestinAI&

MLstartups.However,ouranalysissuggeststhatearly-stageSaaS

companiesarestilllikelytooutperformAI&MLcompanies,yetweseeupsidenotfactoredinduetoAI&ML’simpactbeingstillinitsnascency.

DespiteachallengingIPOdroughtandconcernsoverunsustainable

consumerspending,therearesignsofoptimism,withjobgains,

improvementsinconsumersentiment,andapotentialresurgenceinpubliclistingspointingtowardaresurgenceinexitactivity.

PublishedonMarch15,2024

PitchBookData,Inc.

JohnGabbertFounder,CEO

NizarTarhuniVicePresident,InstitutionalResearchandEditorial

DanielCook,CFAHeadofQuantitativeResearch

Research

SusanHuAssociateQuantitativeResearchAnalyst

susan.hu

@

KyleStanford,CAIALeadAnalyst,VentureCapital

kyle.stanford@

ZaneCarmean,CFA,CAIALeadAnalyst,QuantitativeandFundsResearch

zane.carmean@

MilesOstroffAssociateQuantitativeResearchAnalyst

miles.ostroff@

Contact

pbinstitutionalresearch@

COPYRIGHT©2024byPitchBookData,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedinanyformorbyanymeans—graphic,electronic,ormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,taping,andinformationstorageandretrievalsystems—withouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofPitchBookData,Inc.Contentsarebasedoninformationfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butaccuracyand

completenesscannotbeguaranteed.Nothinghereinshouldbeconstruedasanypast,currentorfuturerecommendationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranoffertosell,orasolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurity.Thismaterialdoesnotpurporttocontainalloftheinformationthataprospectiveinvestormaywishtoconsiderandisnottoberelieduponassuchorusedinsubstitutionfortheexerciseofindependentjudgment.

2PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

3

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Keytakeaways

•Overall,2023wasaslowyearforVCactivity.Thelackofcapitalavailabilitycontinuestobehighlightedbythedemand/supplyratioacrossallstagesandsectorsofVC.AI&MLhasdominatedtotaldealmakingactivity,makingup35.4%ofthetotalcapitalinvestedinVC.

•Historically,SaaShasbeenthemostlucrativeareaofinvestmentforVCinvestors.However,followingthereleaseofChatGPT,AI&MLhastakencenterstage,withvaluationsofprivatecompaniesinthespacegrowingfasterthanSaaScompanyvaluations.

•ThepoorexitenvironmentinthelasttwoyearsledtoabuildupofpapervaluationswithineachsectorthatisroughlythreetimesthatofthepublicmarketcapitalizationofVC-backedcompaniesthatpubliclylistedinthelastfiveyears,signalingasignificantbacklogofcapitalwaitingtoexitandtheoverweightbalanceofvalueheldwithinprivatemarkets.

•Encouragingmacroeconomicconditionsalleviatesomeuncertaintyintheprivatemarketsandsetanoptimistictonefor2024.PubliccompaniesthathaverecentlycompletedanIPOhavestartedtoseeapickupinrevenuegrowthandvaluations.

PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Boardinghasstarted

4PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

5

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

VCdemandisoutpacingsupply,withinvestmentactivitynotkeeping

pacewithhighproportionofstartupsseekingcapital.

EstimatedstartupdemandforVCinvestmentrelativetosupply

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

0.5x

0.0x

2.0x

1.6x

Moredemand

thansupplyof

VCdollars

1.5x

1.0xisneutral.

MoreVC

dollars

suppliedthan

estimated

2024*

2019

2020

2021

2022

Late-StageIndex

2023

demand

Early-StageIndex

Venture-GrowthIndex

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofFebruary29,2024

PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

The

capitaldemand/supply

ratio

estimatestheamountofcapitaldemandedbyUS

startupsasaratioofsupply

brokenoutbystage.

Demandiscalculatedby

estimatinghowmuchcapitalcompanieswillraiseintheirnextroundandspreadingthatamountoverthehistorical

probabilityofraisinginthe

future.Capitalsupplyuses

observedVCdealvalue.

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

SaaShasbeenastapleofmanyVCinvestmentportfoliosinthelastdecade,butwiththedeclinein

VCdealactivity,SaaSstartups’needforcapitalhasbeenlargelyunmet.

SaaSVCDealmakingIndicatorbyquarterSaaScapitaldemand/supplyratiobyquarter

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

5x

4x

4.0x

74.3

65.0

3x

50.0isneutral.

62.9

2.1x

2x

1.5x

1x

1.0xisneutral.

0x

20192020202120222023*

20192020202120222023*

Early-StageIndexLate-StageIndexVenture-GrowthIndexEarly-StageIndexLate-StageIndexVenture-GrowthIndex

Source:

PitchBook

•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

6PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

7

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

WhileAI&MLhasremainedlesssusceptibletochangesinhistoricaltrends,outsizeddealslike

OpenAI’s$10billionlate-stageroundgreatlyimpactthe“supply”ofcapital.

AI&MLVCDealmakingIndicatorbyquarter*AggregateAI&MLcapitaldemand/supplyratio*

100

90

80

73.1

70

60

52.9

50

50.0isneutral.

40

30

20

10

0

20192020202120222023

Early-StageIndexLate-StageIndexVenture-GrowthIndex

71.5

PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

3x

outsizeddealslikeOpenAI’s

$10billionlate-stageround.

OpenAIisinboththeAI&ML

andSaaSbuckets.

2.0x

2x

1x

1.0xisneutral.

0x

20192020202120222023

Supplyisinflatedfrom

Source:

PitchBook

•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

VCinvestorsappeartobepivoting.Despitebeingaslowyearfordealmaking,theshareofVC

dollarsinvestedinAI&MLacceleratedto35.4%in2023…

AI&MLVCdealactivitybyquarterAI&MLVCdealvalue($B)bysegmentandshareofallVCdealvalue

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

$0

1000

358

20172018201920202021202220232024**

一Dealvalue($B)—Dealcount

$50

$40

$30

$20

$10

$0

35%

18%

21%22%

22%22%

201820192020202120222023*

Autonomousmachines一Verticalapplications

AI&MLsemiconductors

Horizontalplatforms

-ShareoftotalVCdeals

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofJanuary31,2024•**AsofFebruary28,2024

8PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

…withlate-stageunicornvaluationsreboundingfasterthanVC’spreviousdarling,SaaS.Sincethe

launchofChatGPTinlate2022,AI&MLunicornshaveoutperformedonpaper.

MorningstarPitchBookUnicornIndexreturnsbyselectsector*MorningstarPitchBookUnicornIndexreturnsbyselectsector

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Mar2021Sep2021Mar2022Sep2022Mar2023Sep2023

AI&MLSaaS

9PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

25%

20%

ChatGPTlaunchedonNovember30,2022.

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

*

DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan20222023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232024

AI&MLSaaS

Sources:

Morningstar

,

PitchBook

•Geography:Global•*AsofJanuary31,2024

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Topvaluationsofearly-stageAI&MLstartupshaveseenanupticksinceChatGPT’srelease,

thoughnottotheextentseenin2021.Growthoftop-decileSaaSvaluationshasbeensubdued.

Rollingsix-monthaveragetop-decilepre-moneyvaluationmultiplesfornewdealsbyselectvertical,rebasedtoDecemberofstartingyear

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.5x

1.0x

Werebasedthetop-decilepre-moneyvaluationsofeachcohortto

1.0totrackhowthetopendofeachverticalhasseenvaluations

inflate.AI&MLhastakenoff,butnottotheextentthatwesaw

from2020to2022.

AI&ML:1.5x

SaaS:1.1x

AI&ML:2.9x

SaaS:2.7x

2020to2022

2022to2024*

0.5x

16

12

4

Dec

8

MonthssincestartofcohortinDecember

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofFebruary28,2024

10PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

DespitethefocusonAI&ML,ouranalysisstillsuggeststhatearly-

stageSaaScompaniesarelikelytooutperformtheaveragevertical…

Annualizedexpectedreturnsrelativetothecross-verticalaverage*

SaaS

Cybersecurity

Gaming AI&ML FintechClimatetech

Mobilitytech

AgtechFoodtech

IoT

Cross-verticalaverage:+23.1%

+1.1%

+0.8%

+0.4%

+5.5%

+0.2%

+0.0%

SaaScompaniesareexpectedto

outperformthecross-verticalaverageby

anet5.5%onanannualizedbasis.

-2.3%

-2.3%

-0.7%

-2.7%

Outperform

Underperform

Source:

PitchBook

•Geography:Global•*AsofDecember31,2023

11PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

Expectedreturnsforeachverticalarebasedonanaggregationoftheexpectedreturnsfortheunderlyingcompanies.Company-levelreturnsaredeterminedfromtheexit-typepredictionsandhistoricalreturnsbyseries.Formoreinformation,pleaseseeour

VCEmergingOpportunities

reportandtheVCExitPredictor

methodologylocatedinthe

PitchBookHelpCenter

.

Thecross-verticalaveragereturnof23.1%isprovidedasahistorical

baselinevalueandshouldnotbe

reliedonasaforecast.Thisbaselinevalueisderivedfromtheaverageofdeal-levelreturndatafrom2000to2021andcanvarysignificantly

basedontheenvironmentatanygiventime.Therelativereturnsforeachvertical,however,areamorerobustforward-lookingmeasurebecausetheyareunaffectedby

factorsthatimpacttheentireVCecosystem,suchasinterestrates,availablefunding,andeconomicgrowth.

12

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

…andsimulationsofexitoutcomesprovideevidencethatbets

placedinearly-stageSaaSmayleadtobetterpayoffs.

DistributionsofrelativeannualizedexpectedreturnsbasedonMonteCarlosimulations*

Source:

PitchBook

•Geography:Global•*AsofDecember31,2023

PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

Toassesstheuncertaintyofthe

relativeexpectedreturnsshownonthepriorpage,weran10,000

MonteCarlosimulationsthat

randomlygeneratedexitoutcomesforeachcompanybasedontheexitprobabilitiesfromtheVCExit

Predictor.Ateachiteration,we

thenusedtherandomexit

outcomestocalculatethereturnforeachvertical.Weassumedthatexitoutcomesbetweenpairsof

companieswerepositively

correlated—thedegreetowhich

wasbasedonasinglecommon

factor,aswellasfactorsforeach

vertical.

Thisanalysissuggeststhatthere

arethreetiersofverticalsbasedonexpectedperformance.SaaSis

expectedtooutperformwithhighconfidence,whileagriculturaltech(agtech),foodtech,andInternetofThings(IoT)areexpectedto

underperform.Meanwhile,the

remainingverticalsformamiddletierwhereintherelative

performanceoutcomesaremuchlesscertain.

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Intotheclouds

13PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

PublicequityinvestorsappeartoagreewithSaaS’sprospects.VC-backedSaaScompaniesthat

recentlycompletedanIPOaretradingathighermultiplesthanAI&MLinthepublicmarkets.

Price/salesmultiplesofVC-backedIPOsinSaaSandAI&ML

45x

40x

35x

30x

25x

20x

15x

10x

5x

0x

Five-yearrollingwindowofVC-

backedIPOs.Forexample,2019datapointswillincludeIPOsfromthe

years2014to2019.

10.0x

6.6x

2019

2020

2021

2022

—AI&ML—SaaS

2023

2024*

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofFebruary28,2024

14PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVESNote:Fiveyearsofinclusioninindexedconstituents

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

However,crimpedvaluationmultiplesledtoanIPOdroughtin2022and2023.Arecordnumberof

VC-backedcompaniesarelookingforexits…

VCcompanycountbystagePubliclistingcountbystageoflastVCfinancinground

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Therearecurrentlymorethan

54,000VCstartupsintheUS

ecosystem.Themorematurethe

company’sstage,themorelikelythecompanyistopubliclylist.

*

Pre-seed/seedEarly-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024*

Early-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofFebruary28,2024

15PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

…buteveninnormaltimes,publiclistingsarerare.Thelasttwo

yearshavebeentheworstoverthelastdecade...

ShareofVC-backedcompaniesthatpubliclylistedbystage

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

0.1%

*

0.9%

0.2%

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023*

Early-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsDecember31,2023

16PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

BasedonourestimatesfortheuniverseofVC-backed

startups,wecomparethe

proportionoffirmsthat

publiclylistedeachyear.By

averagingtheproportionfrom2015to2019,wenextestimatethenumberofpubliclistingstherewouldbeunder“normal”exitconditions.

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

…leadingtoabuildupofpapervaluations.Themarketcapofcompaniesthathavecompletedan

IPOinthelastfiveyearsisroughlyone-thirdofaggregateprivatemarketvaluations.

AI&MLmarketcapofrecentIPOsversusaggregatepost-moneyvaluationofstill-private,VC-backedfirms

SaaSmarketcapofrecentIPOsversusaggregatepost-money

valuationofstill-private,VC-backedfirms

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200

$168$179$547$313$629$885$255$1,173$329$1,115

$0

20192020202120222023*

Marketcap($B)Aggregatepost-moneyvaluation($B)

17PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200

$83$149$253$217$279$525$125$678$260$721

$0

20192020202120222023*

Marketcap($B)Aggregatepost-moneyvaluation($B)

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

ArecordnumberofSaaScompanieswereleftoutofnewofferings,andtheyarenowfacing

challengesinnavigatinggrowthwhileprivate.

SaaSVCcompanycountbystage

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

*

Pre-seed/seedEarly-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth

18PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

SaaS2023publiclistingcountversusshortfallbasedon2015-2019averagepubliclistingratebystage*

25

05101520

1

8

Early-stageVC

10

4

Late-stageVC

16

4

Venturegrowth

ActualpubliclistingcountUnfilledlistingcountbasedonhistoricalaverage

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofFebruary28,2024

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Early-stageVC

1

6

Late-stageVC

2

6

Venturegrowth

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

DespitehypeinAI&MLVCdeals,exitactivityhasfallenshortofexpectations.

AI&MLVCcompanycountbystageAI&ML2023publiclistingcountversusshortfallbasedon2015-2019

averageIPOratebystage*

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

*

Pre-seed/seedEarly-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth

0246810

6

ActualpubliclistingcountUnfilledlistingcountbasedonhistoricalaverage

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofFebruary28,2024

19PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

5

8

7

14

8

20

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Twomonthsinto2024,IPOshavenottakenoff,butthereisoptimismforaresurgence.Several

notableVC-backedcompaniesaretargetinganIPOthisyearifthemacroenvironmentallows.

2024publiclistingcountversusshortfallbasedon2015-2019averageIPOratebystageandselectvertical*

05101520

Early-stageVC

AI&ML

SaaS

Late-stageVC

AI&ML

SaaS

Venturegrowth

AI&ML

SaaS

ActualpubliclistingcountUnfilledlistingcountbasedonhistoricalaverage

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofFebruary28,2024

20PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Clearskiesahead?

21PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Theabove-trendrealGDPin2023bringstheUSclosertoasuccessfulsoftlanding.GDPgrowth

forecastsaremuted,butrecessionfearshavenoticeablyreceded.

RealGDPcomparedwithtrendfollowingtheglobalfinancialcrisis(GFC)*

$24$22$20$18$16$14$12

$10

Recession

Q420233.3%

34.8%

-28.0%

2006

2000

2002

2004

2008

2010

2012

2014

20162018202020222024E

Post-GFCtrend

Next-four-quarterforecast

RealGDP($T)

Annualizedquarterlygrowthrate

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Sources:

BureauofEconomicAnalysis

,

WallStreetJournalEconomicForecastingSurvey

•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

22PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Strongjobgainshavedriventheunemploymentratebacktothelowsof2019.Whilepositive,job

creationhascooledtotheaveragegrowthofthepre-pandemicdecade.

QoQjobcreationchange*Unemploymentrate*

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

Average2010-2019

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

11.0%

3.5%

3.7%

-8%

2010201220142016201820202022

0%

2010201220142016201820202022

Source:

BureauofLaborStatistics

•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

23PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

Consumersarestillwary,butsentimenthasimprovedover2022andearly2023…

UniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndex*

125

100

75

50

25

Median:88.3

69.7

1990199520002005201020152020

Source:

UniversityofMichigan

•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

24PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

…andYoYUSretailsalesgrowthcontinuestotrendpositive.However,adeclineinthepersonal

savingrateandrisingdelinquencyratesindicateunsustainableconsumerspending.

YoYretailsalesbymonth

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

2020202120222023*

Personalsavingrateandshareofbalance90+daysdelinquentbyloantype*

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

2003200620092012201520182021

PersonalsavingrateMortgageCreditcard

Sources:

CensusBureau

,

FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

,

FederalReserveBankofNewYork

•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

25PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

RecentIPOsprovideaproxyforbusinessfundamentalsoflate-stageVC-backedcompanies.SaaS

revenuegrowthhasslowedfrom2021...

SaaSrevenuegrowthdispersionofVC-backedIPOcompaniesbyquarter

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2019

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2020

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2021

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2022

Bottomdecile

Q1

Q2Q3

2023*

Q4

TopandbottomquartilerangeTopdecileMedian

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

Note:VC-backedIPOsincludedforfiveyears.LimitedQ42023data:25of38companieshavereported.

26PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES

CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?

…andAI&MLhasfollowedasimilartrend.Despitetheperceivedpotentialofthisvertical,wehave

yettoseerevenuegrowthfigurespickupmeaningfully.

AI&MLrevenuegrowthdispersionofVC-backedIPOcompaniesbyquarter

140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%

-20%-40%

-60%

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2019

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2020

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2021

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2022

Bottomdecile

Q1

Q2Q3

2023*

Q4

TopandbottomquartilerangeTopdecileMedian

Source:PitchBook•Geography:US•*AsofDecember31,2023

Note: