经济全球化背景下波兰及其他欧盟国家工业结构调整

经济全球化背景下波兰及其他欧盟国家工业结构调整摘要：该文章的目的是分析波兰以及其他欧盟国家产业结构的变化。研究的内容包括：经济转型时工业在波兰经济中角色的转变、欧洲一体化和全球化对就业结构和生产性固定资产总值的增值、波兰产业的分支结构以及出口结构的变化、外资对企业的影响及其在波兰产业重组中的作用。关键词：欧洲联盟，全球化，产业结构调整，波兰，产业结构原文：IndustrialrestructuringinPolandandotherEuropeanUnionstatesintheeraofeconomicglobalizationAbstractTheaimofthepaperistoanalyzechangesinindustryinPolandwithrespecttochangesinotherEuropeanUnionmemberstates.Theresearchproblemsinclude:thechangingroleofindustryinthePolisheconomyintheeraofeconomictransformation,Europeanintegrationbasedandglobalizationonitsshareoftheemploymentstructureandgrossvaluedadded,changesinthebranchstructureofPolishindustryaswellasexportsasanexpressionofrestructuringprocesses,influenceofforeigncapitalonthefunctioningofindustrialenterprisesanditsroleinthere-structuringofPolishindustry.Keywords:EuropeanUnion,globalization,industrialrestructuring,Poland,structureofindustryNatureofrestructuringprocessesWhileanexhaustivediscussionoftheconceptofrestructuringisnotthepurposeofthispaper,itisworthnotingthatmostresearchersinthefieldagreethatrestructuringisnotanunambiguousconceptandmaybeunderstoodindifferentways[16,17,18,19,20,21].Intheliterature,itiscommonlyacceptedthatthereexisttwodifferentapproachestothisissue:1)amacroscaleapproachbasedonthenationaleconomy,and2)amicroscaleapproachbasedonenterprises[22,23].Someresearchers[19]havealsoidentifiedsomethingknownasmeso-restructuring,whichviewsindustrybranchandregionalstructuresfromamiddlepointofview–somewherebetweenmicro-andmacro-restructuring.Changesinindustrialstructureonamacro-andmeso-economicscaletakeplaceasaresultofchangesinthefunctioningofindividualindustrialenterprises.Suchenterprisesaretreatedasbasicelementsofspatialformsofindustrialconcentration.Hence,itisimportanttoidentifythenatureofrestructuringonamicroscale(enterpriselevel).Inawell-establishedmarketeconomy,restructuringmaybedefinedasaprocessofradicalchangeinthevariouspartsofanenterprisedesignedtoadaptthegivenenterprisetoexistingandanticipatedconditionsinordertohelpitgrow.InPoland,industrialrestructuringisuniquelydifferentasthecountryisstillundergoinganeconomictransformationprocess.Forthisreason,restructuringinPolandislooselydefinedintheresearchliteratureasaprocessofadjustingbusinessoperationstothedemandsofamarketeconomy[20].Manyresearchers[18,19]believethatrestructuringoughttofulfillatleastthreerequirements:1)shouldbebasedonadeliberateeffort,2)shouldbeimplementedbasedonaspecificprogram,and3)theimplementationprocessshouldbebasedonappropriatemechanismsandeconomicpolicy.Hence,noteverychangeinthefunctioningofabusinessenterprisemaybelabeledrestructuring.Adetailedanalysisofthepurpose,course,andeffectsofindustrialrestructuringinPolandhasbeenperformedinearlierresearch[7,8].Fromageographicpointofview,thepaperutilizesthedefinitionsetforthbyM.Tkocz[22]whereindustrialrestructuringisdefinedasalongcontinuousprocessthatleadstoadeliberateshiftinthebranchstructureofindustry.Theshiftinvolvesdifferenttypesoflegalandfinancialinstruments.Restructuringissaidtoincludechangesinownership,organization,technology,andlocation.Theemploymentprofilechangesaswellinordertoincreasetheeffectiveness,innovativeness,andcompetitivenessofindustryonaninternationalscale.GlobaldeterminantsofindustrialrestructuringinPolandTheprocessofrestructuringinPolandisaffectedbyavarietyofdeterminantseconomictransformationinCentralandEasternEurope.ThisresultsfromthefactthatEUcountriesinCentralandEasternEuropecontinuetomaintaintraditionalbranchesofindustrythatrequireanextensiveinputoflabor.Ontheotherhand,EUcountriesinWesternEuropetendtopossessmoremodernformsofindustrythatrequirelesslaborandproducehighergrossvalueaddedgoods.EUstates(Fig.2)andlargeindustry-basedgrossvalueadded(Fig.3)in2007.Thelargestdecreasesintheshareofindustrialjobsintotalemploymentandgrossvalueaddedhavebeenrecordedincountrieswhereindustrialjobsandindustrialgrossvalueaddedarealreadyratherinsignificantintermsoftotalemploymentandtotalgrossvalueadded(Fig.4).Thisincludesprimarilythe“old15”EUstates(e.g.corememberssuchasGreatBritain).CountriesthatjoinedtheEUlaterthanthecorememberstates,suchasSpainandFinland,experiencedlessofadecline.ThesurprisingfindinginthiscaseisthefactthedeclineinindustryisnotthatsubstantialinCentralandEasternEuropewhereeconomictransformationisstilltakingplaceandwhereindustrialpotentialhadbeenveryhighfollowingtheendoftheircentrally-plannedeconomicsystems.Insomecases,industryhasgainedsignificanceinthenationaleconomyintermsofjobs(Lithuania,Latvia)andgrossvalueadded(Romania,Denmark,Austria).Industrycontinuestodeclineinmostcountriesintermsofitsshareofjobsintotalemploymentandgrossvalueadded.Thisisassociatedwiththeintroductionofmachinesintheproductionprocessandconsequentlytheeliminationofhumanlabor[33]aswellastherelocationofmanufacturingfacilitiestonon-EUstatesthatofferlowerlaborcosts.Yet,despitetheabove,researchappearstoshow[4,5,6]thatmanyregionsinEurope,includingsomeinthe“old15”EU,continuetomaintainalargenumberofindustrialjobsandproducesubstantialgrossvalueadded,bothofwhichcontinuetogrowinsomecases.Mostregionswithlongstandingindustrialtraditionsandasubstantialmodernindustrialroleaswellasregionsdynamicallygrowingattheturnofthe21stcentury(e.g.Ireland,Spain)continuetostrengthentheirindustrialsectorintermsofgrossvalueadded.ThiscontradictstheviewcommonlyacceptedinmanyresearchpublicationsthatEuropeisundergoingwidespreaddeindustrialization.Ongoingchangesinindustrialpotentialtendtoconfirmtheonsetofreindustrializationwherelabor-intensivejobsaregivingwaytoknowledge-basedjobs.Suchjobstendtoaddmorevalue,whichtendstooffsetthedecreasingroleofindustryintotalemployment.Thisisageneralfeatureofcountriesmakingthetransitionfromtheindustrialagetothepostindustrialagewhereeconomiesarebasedonknowledge.DivisionstructureofindustryTheexistingclassificationsystem,wherealmost90%ofindustrialactivityislabeled“SectionD”(manufacturing),doesnotallowforananalysisofchangesinthebranchstructureofindustrybasedonsections.Hence,inordertodrawanymeaningfulconclusionsaboutstructuralchangesinPolishindustry,itisnecessarytotakealookattheissueatthedivisionlevel.Researchhasshownthatthelargestnumberofemployedindividualsandthelargestvalueofproductionsoldareassociatedwiththefollowingdivisionsofindustry:1)productionoffooditemsandsoftdrinks,2)manufacturingofmachineryandotherdevices,and3)manufacturingofmetalproducts(inrecentyears).Miningcontinuestoplayanimportantroleaswell.Advancedproductiondivisions(DL30–DL33)arecharacterizedbyalowemploymentpotentialandsoldgoodspotential.Researchhasshownthattraditionallabor-intensivebranchesofindustryareonthedecline.Theseincludemining,garmentmanufacturing,textiles,leatherproductmanufacturing,machineryandotherdevicemanufacturing,energy,andchemicalproductmanufacturing(Fig.5).Industriesthathavegrownsignificantlyinrecentyearsincludemetalproductmanufacturing,rubberproductmanufacturing,syntheticmaterialmanufacturing,furnituremanufacturing,andautomobilemanufacturing.Alloftheabovecannotbeclassifiedashighlyadvancedintermsoftechnology.Itmustbenotedthatforeigncapitalplaysasignificantroleinthemanufacturingsector.ResearchattheindustrydivisionlevelhasshownthattheaforesaidmanufacturingsectorsareisamajorrecipientofforeigndirectinvestmentinPoland.AnyanalysisofchangesinPolishindustryoughttoinvolveacomparisonwithotherEuropeancountries,asitallowsforanassessmentoftherelationshipbetweenchangesinPolandandchangesinbetter-developedcountriesinWesternEurope.ThedivisionstructureofindustryinEUcountriesdifferssubstantiallyfromonecountrytoanother,basedonavailabledata.InmostEUcountries,thefoodandtobaccoindustryplaysakeyroleasdothemachineryandotherdevicesindustryandthemetalproductmanufacturingindustry.Advancedtechnologyindustries(DL30–DL33)playarathersmallrole,however,giventhattheyarenotlabor-intensive,theystillgeneratealotofvalue.ThedivisionstructureofindustryinEUstateswasanalyzedusingtheclustermethod(WardMethod)basedonacomprehensiveindexconsistingoftwoempiricalmeasures(numberofpersonsemployedandvalueofproductionsold).Theanalysisproducedfiveuniquegroupsofcountriesfor1995.Eachgrouppossessedasimilarindustrydivisionstructure(Tab.1)PolandwasassignedtoGroup4alongwithBulgaria,Romania,theCzechRepublic,andSlovakia.ChangesinindustrystructureinPolandproducedamajorchangeby2007whenPolandfounditselfinGroup1alongwithBelgium,France,GreatBritain,Holland,Spain,andDenmark,andnotwithotherCentralandEasternEuropeancountries,asexpected.ThissuggeststhatPolandisontherighttrackandindustrialrestructuringprocessesareproducingpositiveresults.ChangesintheexportsstructureandtheroleofforeigncapitalinindustrialrestructuringChangesintheexportsstructure(Fig.6)areoneexpressionoftendenciesintherestructuringofPolishindustry.Thedynamicincreaseinexportstohighly-developedcountriesaswellasaperceptibleincreaseinthequantityofhigher-techproductsbeingexportedsuchasmachineryandtransportequipmentandprocessedgoodsmayonlybeviewedasapositivesign.SuchafavorabletrendinthePolishexportsstructurehasalsobeenobservedinpreviousresearchpublications[11].Unfortunately,mostgoodsinthe“machineryandotherdevices”categoryandthe“transportequipment”categorymayonlybeclassifiedas“midleveltechnology”goods(OECDclassification).Hence,theaforesaidincreasedoesnotindicateanincreaseinhigh-techgoods.ExportsfromCentralandEasternEuropevarysignificantlyintermsoftheshareofhigh-techgoods[14,15].PolandisatthebackofthelineintheEuropeanUnionwhenitcomestohigh-techexports.NotonlyarePolishhigh-techexportssignificantlybelowtheEU-27average(16%in2007)butalsobelowthatofothercountriesintheregionsuchastheCzechRepublic,Hungary,andSlovakia(Fig.7).Polishhigh-techexportshavegrownlittlebetween1995and2007comparedtothatofotherEUcountries.FavorablechangesinthetypeofmanufacturingperformedinPolandandinPolishexportsweremadepossiblebychangesintechnologicalprocesses,whichhaveallowedfortheproductionofnewtypesofproducts.Theshifttowardsnewproductswaspromptedbyaneedtomanufacturemorespecializedproductsbyeithermaintainingcurrentproductiongoalsorfocusingproductiononasmallerarrayoffinishedgoods.Anothermeaningfulchangehasbeenashifttowardsincreasingtheselectionofnewandimprovedproductsdesignedtoserveexistingneeds.Finally,Polishmanufacturinghasmadeanefforttooffermoretypesofexistingproducts.Towardstheendoftheeraofthecentrally-plannedeconomy(late1980s),Polishindustrialenterprisespossessedlargelyoutdatedphysicalassetsthatdidnotallowthemtocompeteinamarket-basedenvironmentandlimitedtheirabilitytointroducenewtechnologies.Theintroductionoffundamentaltechnologicalchangeswaspossibleinthecaseofenterprisesthatwereabletosecuresourcesoffinancing.Earlierresearchhasshown[7,8,10,11,27]thatforeigncapitalplayedasignificantroleinthisprocess,asthetechnologicalrestructuringofPolishindustrywouldnothavebeenpossiblebasedondomesticcapitalalone.PolandwasabletoattractthelargestamountofforeigncapitalamongcountriesinCentralandEasternEuropebetween1989and2001.However,onapercapitabasis,largeramountsofforeigncapitalweremadeavailabletotheCzechRepublic,Hungary,Slovenia,andEstonia[11].Polandbegantoloseitscompetitiveedgein2001-2003intermsofattractingforeigncapitalversuscountriessuchastheCzechRepublicandSlovakia.AmoredynamicinfluxofforeigncapitalhasbeenobservedonceagainfollowingPoland’sentryintotheEuropeanUnionin2004.TheconclusiondrawnbyB.DomaĔski[27]thattheoveralleffectofforeigncapitalonPolishindustrywaspositivemaybeconsideredtrue.Foreigninvestmentimprovesthecompetitivepositionofindustrialenterprisesandtheeconomyasawholebyintroducingnewertechnologiesandbetterorganizationalpractices,whichleadstoincreasedeffectivenessandfavorablestructuralchanges.Themanufacturingofhigherqualityproductshelpsgeneratelargerexportsofmanufacturedgoods,especiallytothe“old15”statesoftheEuropeanUnion.Akeyissueinthisrespectisthemodernizationofproductionlines,whichenablesthemanufacturingofhigherqualityproductsandreducestheimpactofmanufacturingonthenaturalenvironment.This,initself,isanimportantfactorinthequalityofhumanlife.Investorsalsopositivelyinfluencethecompetitivepositionoflocalenterprisesandcontributetoanincreaseinthejobqualificationsoflocalhumanresources.Plantsoperatedbyforeigninvestorsgenerateadditionalbenefitsbyworkingwithlocalsuppliersofgoodsandservices,whichincreasesemploymentatsuppliercompanies.Thisisknownasamultipliereffect[34,35,36]andithasbeenobservedinmanyindustrialareasinCentralandEasternEurope.InPoland,multipliereffectshavebeenobservedinSlaskieProvince,whichhasexperiencedasubstantialinfluxofforeigncapitalintoitsautomotivesector[37].Itmustbenoted,however,thatforeigncapitalimpactsthelabormarketlessintermsofthenumberofjobsthanintermsofthequalityofnewjobscreated.ItshouldbenotedthatinPoland,thereareno“cathedralsinthedesert”,ametaphoricalconceptdevelopedbyG.Grabher[38]todescribeforeignenterprisespoorlyembeddedintheirlocalorregionalenvironment.Suchenterprisesmakelittleeconomicimpactontheirlocalenvironment.译文：重组过程的性质虽然对产业调整详尽的讨论不是本文的目的，但很多学者认为产业调整不是一个清楚概念，可以用很多种方式了解。在历来文献中，人们普遍认为存在两种不同的方法去解答这个问题：1）基于国民经济的研究方法2）基于企业的研究方法。一些研究者也得出了关于产业分支的微观调整和在微观宏观之间的区域调整。产业结构的变动会导致个体工业企业的变动。这些企业是业集中度的空间形式的基本要素。在成熟市场上，产业调整可以被定义为为帮助企业成长并让其定的企业存在和预期的条件的一种激进方法。波兰由于其仍在进行经济转型，他的情况和其他国家有所不同。因为这个原因，波兰产业结构的调整被松散的定义为满足市场经济需求而进行的调整经营活动的行为。许多研究者认为产业调整应该满足这三个基本条件：1）必须要持之以恒2）在实施前必须有特定的计划3）在实施过程中应指定特定的经济机制和政策。因此，不是每个企业功能的变化都可以称为调整。在之前学者们对波兰产业结构调整的目的、过程、影响已经有了比较详细研究。转移包括不同类型的法律和金融工具。为了提高产业的效率、竞争力、创新力，波兰对其就业结构进行了调整。波兰产业调整的外部因素波兰产业调整受多种因素影响，可分为国际和国内因素。来自国际的因素可以归结为全球经济一体化进程，包括：1）全球经济中跨国企业资本集中度和整体竞争力的上升给波兰在全球市场上带来了巨大压力2）欧盟的整合是一个关键因素3）外国企业在波兰扮演越来越重要的角色，引导波兰本土企业走出去4）经济活动的具体形式比如外部采购、离岸外包、分拆。5）科学技术迅猛发展，特别是在信息技术领域、自动化、电子化。6）服务产业、软件产业、中小制造业的制造7)更短的产品生命周期和从规模经济向多样性经济转变一个新的经济环境已经在过去三年浮现（2008到2010），全球经济已经在金融危机中进入衰退。很多政府，包括欧盟各国政府以及其他国际机构一直在想法设法应对国际金融危机对社会和经济的影响。必须注意的是没有足够的时间来彻底评估危机对产业结构变动的影响。由于工业部门依赖其资本密集型和时间密集型投资进程，工业部门具有结构惯性。我们就不能期望经济衰退会对产业结构产生重大改变。波兰和其他国家正经历系统的变革，国内问题和国际问题同样重要。波兰国内经济管理系统的变化，以及波兰市场对外国公司、商品、资本开放也尤为紧要。当然国家经济政策也会影响波兰的产业调整，包括新的法律（符合欧盟经济政策）、国家产业政策（国有企业私有化、创造经济特区、在多个产业实施调整）。工业就业和生产性固定资产总值的增加分析1995年到2007年工业就业人数占总就业人数的比例可以得出工业所起的角色越来越小。1995年到2007年波兰工业和建筑业的比例从31.2%到29%，工业从25.5%到23.1%。两个阶段的变化已经被认可：1995到2001年，波兰的工业部门就业人数占总就业人数的比例迅猛的降至20.8%，2002年到2007年，这段时间有小小的反弹。必须注意的是，这次反弹很大程度上被归功于波兰人口普查对从事农业工作的重新计算。但是，工业对经济增长的贡献越来越大。生产性固定资产总值由工业和建筑业带来的增加从95年的42.4%降到07年的38.2%，工业部门自身从34.2%下降到30.1%。当然这期间也分为两个阶段：1）2002年之前下降2）2002年后开始增加。东欧和中欧都在进行经济转型。这起因于欧盟国家在中欧和东欧继续保持传统产业以吸收大量的相对廉价的劳动力。另一方面，西欧国家也倾向于拥有更多仅需少量劳动力的现代产业来生产高附加值的产品。工业就业份额和生产性固定资产总值的大量减少已经被这些工业就业和生产性固定资产总值增长微不足道的国家记录。这包括欧盟老的15个成员国。加入欧盟晚于核心成员国的成员国比如西班牙、芬兰，也经历了一个较小的下降。令人惊奇的是，正在经济转型的东欧和中欧国家的工业下降并不是大量的。在某些情况下，工业仍然在国民经济中发挥重要作用。在大多数国家，工业占总就业人数和生产性固定资产增加值的份额继续保持下降。这可以归结为在生产过程中引进了先进的机器设备，从而避免了劳动力和机器设备去那些劳动力成本更低的非欧盟地区。然而，研究者发现在欧洲的很多地区包括一些老的欧盟成员国继续保持大量的工业就业岗位并产生大量的生产性固定资产增加值。在21世纪之交（如爱尔兰，西班牙）其工业部门动态增长总值继续加强。这与许多研究出版物普遍接受的欧洲正在发生广泛的产业空洞化的观点相矛盾。这种工作往往添加更多的价值，这往往起到弥补下降的行业总就业人数中的作用。这是一个从工业时代向以知识为基础的后工业时代过渡的国家的经济的一般特征。产业分工水平现有的分工系统，其中近90％的工业活动是标有“D节”（制造），不允许对分公司的基础上行业结构变化进行分析。因此，为了得出任何关于波兰工业的结构性变化有意义的结论，有必要研究各部门。有研究表明，以下部门雇佣最多的劳动力和最大的产出价