CFA二级基础段权益（标准版）

Equity二级培训项目IISessionContentWeightingsSession1Ethical&ProfessionalSessionSession4MethodsEconomicsSessionSession7-8StudySession9-11SessionSessionSessionSessionFinancialReportingandAnalysisCorporateFinanceEquity10-15FixedIncomeAlternativeInvestmentsPortfolioManagementEquity•R24EquityApplicationsandProcessesR25ReturnConceptsEquityvaluation•Equity•R26IndustryandCompanyAnalysisEquity•R27DiscountedDividend••R28FreeCashFlowR29Market-BasedPriceEnterpriseMultiples••R30ResidualIncomeR31Company24Equity1.DefinitionsandApplications.TheProcessFramework2andApplicationsIntrinsictheanassetahypotheticallycompleteunderstandingtheassets’investmentcharacteristics.aparttheactivemanagerattemptproductionpositiveexcessreturn.Alpha,anexcessrisk-adjustedreturn,alsocalledanabnormalreturn.perceivedmispricingtruemispricingV–P=–+(V–V)EEtheerrortheestimatetheintrinsicThefirstcomponentthetruemispricing,thatis,thedifferencebetweenthetruebutunobservableintrinsicVandtheobservedmarketpricePdifferencecontributestheabnormalreturn).Thesecondcomponentthedifferencebetweentheestimateandthetruebutunobservableintrinsicthatis,theerrortheestimatetheintrinsicandApplicationsGoing-ConcernandLiquidationGoing-concerntheunderagoing-concernassumption.Themodelswecoverallbasedonthegoingconcernassumption.LiquidationtheacompanythecompanyweredissolvedandassetssoldMarketandInvestmentmarketthepriceatwhichanasset(orwouldchangehandsbetweenabuyerandasellerwhenboththemnotunderanycompulsion.Investmenttheaspecifictakingaccountpotentialsynergiesbasedontheinvestorrequirementsandexpectations.UnderefficientmarketLiquidation<=fairmarket<investmentandApplicationsApplicationsofEquity最新资料领取微：xuebajun888sStockselection:Checkifthissecurityisfairlypriced,overpriced,orunderpricedrelativetoitscurrentestimatedintrinsicvalueandrelativetothepricesofcomparablesecurities.Inferring(extracting)marketexpectations:Marketpricesreflecttheexpectationsofinvestorsaboutthefutureperformanceofcompanies.Analystscanestimatetheseexpectationsbycomparingthemarketimpliedexpectationstohisownexpectations.Evaluatingcorporateevents:Investmentbankers,corporateanalysts,andinvestmentanalystsusevaluationtoolstoassesstheimpactofsuchcorporateeventsasmergers,acquisitions,divestitures,spin-offs,andgoingprivatetransactions.andApplicationsFairnessopinions:Thepartiesaseekafairnessopinionontermsainvestmentbank.Evaluatingbusinessstrategiesandmodels:concernedwithmaximizingeffectalternativestrategiesonCommunicatingwithanalystsandshareholders:facilitatecommunicationdiscussiononarangecorporateissuesaffectingAppraisingprivatebusinesses:theequitybusinessesisimportantforpurposesreportingpurposesothers.Share-basedpayment(compensation):sometimespartexecutivetheironusingequitytools.1TheProcessGeneralstepstheequityprocessUnderstandthebusiness;Forecastcompanyperformance;Selecttheappropriatemodel;Converttheforecastsintoavaluation;Applytheconclusions.1TheProcessprocessStepunderstandingthebusinessElementsindustrystructure(Porterforces)Intra-industryrivalryNewentrantsSubstitutesSupplierpowerBuyerpowerHowindustriesinwhichinforiscompetitivepositionwithinitsindustry,whatisitscompetitiveHowwellitswhatitsforexecution?ThreegenericstrategiesCostleadershipDifferentiationFocusStepforecastingcompanyperformanceforecastingapproachBottom-upforecastingapproach1TheProcessStepselectingtheappropriatemodelAbsolutionmodelDDM,FCFM,residualincomeapproach,asset-basedmodel.modelMultiples,suchasP/E,P/B,etc.Stepconvertingforecaststoaimportantaspectsconvertingforecastssensitivityandsituationaladjustments.ControlpremiumLackmarketabilitydiscountsIlliquiditydiscounts/blockagefactorStepmakingtheinvestmentdecision1TheProcessSum-of-the-partsSum-of-the-partsbreakuporprivatemarketAthatsumstheestimatedeachthebusinessesaseachbusinesswereanindependentgoingconcern.ConglomeratediscountThemarketappliesadiscountthestockacompanyoperatingmultiple,unrelatedbusinessescomparedthestockcompanieswithnarrowerfocuses.ThreeexplanationsforconglomeratediscountsInefficiencyinternalmarkets:companies’allocationinvestmentcapitalamongdivisionsdoesnotmaximizeoverallshareholderEndogenous:poorlyperformingcompaniestendexpandbymakingacquisitionsunrelatedbusinesses;measurement:conglomeratediscountsdonotactuallyexist,andevidencesuggestingthattheydoaresultflawedmeasurement.1TheProcessHowdoesoneselectamodel?SelectedmodelsshouldbeConsistentwiththecharacteristicsthecompanybeingvalued;Appropriategiventheandqualitydata;Consistentwiththepurposevaluation,includingtheperspective.1251123456.ReturnConceptsFramework.EquityRiskPremium.RequiredReturnonEquity.InternationalConsideration..DiscountRateSelectionRelationCashFlow1ConceptsHoldingperiodreturnHoldingperiodreturnisthereturnearnedfrominvestingassetoveraspecifiedtimeperiod.Theformular=P-P0+DD1P1-P0=+=dividendyield+priceappreciationreturn11P0P0P0AnnualizedHPR.Forexample:ifthereturnforonemonthis1%thentheannualizedHPRis(1+0.01)-1=12.68%1ConceptsRealized&expectedreturnRealizedreturn:isthesamewithHPR.Itisbackward-lookingcontext.最新资料领取微：xuebajun888sExpectedreturn:inforward-looking,aninvestorcanformanexpectationconcerningthedividendandsellingprice.Alpha,anexcessrisk-adjustedreturn,alsocalledanabnormalreturn.FormulaExpectedalpha(exantealpha)=Expectedreturn–RequiredreturnRealizedalpha(expostalpha)=Actualholdingperiodreturn–Contemporaneousrequiredreturn1ConceptsRequiredreturn(opportunityTheminimumlevelexpectedreturnthataninvestorrequiresorderinvesttheassetoveraspecifictimeperiod,giventheassets’riskiness.ItrepresentsAthresholdforbeingfairlycompensatedfortherisktheasset;Ifinvestorexpectedreturn>requiredreturn,theassetundervalued;andviceversa.2ConceptsExpectedreturnWhenaassetmispriced,priceassetsconvergesintrinsicaperiodtime.Theinvestorexpectedratereturncomprises:Requiredreturn;Priceconvergeoverhisorhertimehorizon.+V-P00P0where,V,thereintrinsicthestock;P,thecurrentpricethestockr,requiredreturnduringtheconvergencetimeperiod2ConceptsDiscountrateItarateusedfindingthePVfuturecashflows;UseddeterminetheintrinsicdependsonthecharacteristicstheinvestmentratherthanthatInternalratereturnTheinternalratereturn(IRR)onaninvestmentthediscountratethatequatesthepresenttheexpectedfuturecashflowstheprice.Ifpriceequalcurrentintrinsicthenadiscountratecanbefound,usuallybyiteration,whichequatesthatpresentthemarketprice.2EquityRiskTheequitypremiumtheincrementalreturn(premium)thatinvestorsforholdingequitiesratherthanaasset.Equityriskpremium=Requiredreturnonequityindex–Risk-freerateCAPMRequiredreturnonsharei=Currentexpectedfreereturn+βi(Equityriskpremium)Build-upMethodRequiredreturnonsharei=CurrentexpectedreturnEquitypremiumOtherriskpremium/discounts+±2EquityRiskestimateAhistoricalequitypremiumestimateusuallycalculatedasthemeanthedifferencesbetweenequity-market-indexreturnsandgovernmentdebtreturnsoversomeselectedsampleperiod.IssueshistoricalestimateSelectanappropriateindex.Indrivingthereturn,anindexshouldberelativelystationary.Timeperiod.Thelongertheperiodused,themoreprecisetheestimate;ArithmeticmeanorgeometricmeanestimatingRiskpremiumwillbelowerwhengeometricmeanused;Longtermbondorshorttermafortherisk-freeassets;Industrypracticepreferuselonger-termbondsthanshorter-termbondsestimatetherisk-freerate.SurvivorshipbiasThatresultstheover-estimatereturnonindexandtheDownwardadjustmentusedoffsetthebias.2EquityRiskForward-looking(ex-ante)estimate–conceptualframeworkERPbasedonexpectationsforeconomicandfinancialvariablesthepresentgoingforward.ItlogicalestimateERPdirectlybasedoncurrentinformationandexpectation.Itnotsubjecttheissuessuchasnon-stationaryordataserieshistoricalestimate.Butsubjectpotentialerrorsrelatedmodelsandbehavioral.3approachesGordongrowthmodel(GGM)estimate;Macroeconomicsmodelestimate;Surveyestimate.2EquityRiskGGMGGMequityriskpremiumestimate=Dividendontheindexbasedonyear-aheadaggregateforecasteddividendsandaggregatemarket+Consensuslong-termearningsgrowthrate–Long-termgovernmentbondyield.AsimplewayunderstandtheequationD1ERP=r-RFR=+g-RFRP0Theaboveequationassumesgrowthrateconstant.AnanalystmayadjustmenttoreflectP/Eboomorbust.AnothermethodsolvetheseproblemsEquityIndexPrice=PVrapidtransition(r)+PVmature(r)2EquityRiskSupply-SideEstimates(MacroeconomicModel)ERP1EINFL1EGREPS1EGPEEINCExpectedriskfreereturnExpectedchangestheratioExpectedincomecomponentExpectedgrowthrealEPSExpectedinflationExpectedrisk-freerateExpectedinflation(1+YTMof20-yearT-bonds)(1+YTMof20-yearTIPS)-1TIPS:yInflationProtectedSecuritiesExpectedgrowthrealEPSExpectedgrowthinrealearningpershare=realGDPgrowth=laborproductivityrate+laborsupplyrateSurveyestimatesUsetheconsensustheopinionsfromasamplepeople.2EquityRiskComparisonEstimatesStrengthWeakness••issues(duereduced/dividedlengthdata)Difficult-to-maintainstationary(ifseriesstartingextendeddistantEmpiricallycountercyclicalexpectedequityrisk••Apopularchoice(iflong-termavailable)Unbiasedestimate(ifsystematicerrorsbeenmade)Estimates••••Objectivequalityindata)Survivorshipbiaspositive/negativesurprises(directvariables)non-stationaryordata•Oftensubjecterrorsrelatedfinancial/economicmodelsbehavioralbiasesinforecasting.Forward-lookingEstimates••Subjective2EquityRiskPremiumComparisonEstimatesStrengthWeakness••method;••timeneedupdated;astablegrowthrate.whendevelopedeconomies•samplesources.Supply-SideEstimates••Provenmodels;information;•countries;SurveyEstimates•Widedisparitydifferent•Easytoobtain2EquityestimatetherequiredreturnontheanalystcanchoosefollowingmodelsCAPM最新资料领取微：xuebajun888sMulti-factormodelsFama-FrenchModel(FFM)Pastor-Stambaughmodel(PSM)MacroeconomicMultifactormodelsBuild-upmethodBondYieldPlusRiskPremiumMethod3EquityCAPMmodelRequiredreturnonsharei=Currentexpectedreturn+βi(Equityriskpremium)anequilibriummodelbasedonassumptionsInvestorsriskaversion;Investorsinvestmentdecisionbaseonthemeanreturnandvariancereturntheirportfolio.3EquityCAPMmodel—BetaEstimatesforPublicCompaniesEstimatingBetaforpubliccompanyThechoicetheindexusedrepresentthemarketportfolio:ForUSequities,theS&PandCompositehavebeentraditionalchoices.ThelengthdataperiodandthefrequencyobservationsThemostcommonchoiceyearsmonthlydata,yieldingobservations;yearsweeklyobservationsespeciallyappropriatefastgrowingmarkets.AdjustedBetaforPublicCompaniesintroducedbyBlumeAdjustedbeta=(Unadjustedbeta)+Thebetaafutureperiodhasbeenfoundbeonaveragecloserthemean3EquityEstimatingBetafortinytradedstockornonpubliccompaniesSelectingbenchmarkcompany(comparable);Usethepubliccompanies’informationthesameindustry;Estimatethebenchmark’sbeta(similarwithprevioussection);Unleveredbenchmark’sbeta1ββE1+D/EULeveruptheunleveredbetafortinytradedstockornonpubliccompaniesβ'β1+D'E'UE3EquityMultifactormodelThebetaCAPMdoesnotdescribetheriskMultifactormodelsdevelopaccountfortherisksmore=12nRP=factorsensitivityfactorriskpremiumiiisensitivityorfactorbetathesensitivityaparticularfactor(holdingallotherfactorsconstant),andzerosensitivityallotherfactors.3EquityMultifactormodelFama-FrenchModelModel(PSM)NotethedefinitionRMRFtermsashort-termrate;historicalseriestermsapremiumoverashort-termgovernmentdebtrate.RequiredReturn=푅퐹+푖×푚푘푡−푅퐹FFMSmall/largecap푠푖푧푒×푠푚푎푙푙−푏푖푔PSMHigh/lowbook-to-market푣푎푙푢푒+훽×퐻퐵푀−퐿퐵푀푖Low/highliquidity푙푖푞푖+훽×푅−푅퐿퐿퐻퐿푠푖푧푒푖>,smallcap푣푎푙푢푒훽>,value-oriented푖푙푖푞훽>,low-liquidity푖3EquityMultifactormodelTheFFMviewsthesizeandfactorsasrepresentingfor”)asetunderlyingriskfactors.Smallmarket-capcompaniesmaybesubjectriskfactorssuchaslessreadyaccessandpubliccreditmarketsandcompetitivedisadvantages.Highbook-to-marketmayrepresentshareswithdepressedpricesbecauseexposurefinancialdistress.3Example:Fama-FrenchModelTheestimatedfactorsensitivitiesofEnergytoFama-Frenchfactorsandtheriskpremiumassociatedwiththosefactorsaregiveninthetable最新资料领取微：xuebajun888sSensitivityPremium(%)MarketSize1.Basedonthemodel,calculatetherequiredreturnforEnergyusingthesesestimates.Assumethattheratepercent.Describetheexpectedstylecharacteristicsbasedonfactorsensitivities.3Example:Fama-FrenchModelCorrectAnswer:r=（-0.15x4.3%)=+--=2.Energyappearsbealarge-cap,growth-oriented,highmarketriskstockasindicatedbynegativesizebeta,negativebeta,andmarketbetaabove3EquityMacroeconomicmulti-factormodelsAspecificexamplemacroeconomicfactormodelsthefive-factorBIRRmodel,presentedandwithfactordefinitionsasfollows:Confidence:theunanticipatedchangethereturndifferencebetweenriskycorporatebondsandgovernmentbonds,bothwithmaturitiesyears.Timehorizon:theunanticipatedchangethereturndifferencebetween20-yeargovernmentbondsandybills..Inflation:theunexpectedchangetheinflationrate.Business-cycle:theunexpectedchangethelevelrealbusinessMarkettiming:theportionthetotalreturnanequitymarketthatremainsunexplainedbythefirstfourriskfactors.3EquityBuild-upmethodTheideafortherequiredreturnonequityri=risk-freerate+equityriskpremium±oneormorepremium(discounts)Forbusinessri=risk-freerate+equityriskpremium+sizepremium+specific-companypremiumBondyieldplusriskpremiummethodcostequity=YTMonthelong-termdebt+RiskpremiumTips:becarefulwiththesignseachcomponentandgetthroughlogicaldeduction.4EquitytheMethodsCAPMStrengthWeakness•Choosingtheappropriate•simplethatusesonlyonefactorfactor.•Lowexplanatorypowersome••Higherexplanatorypower(notassured)•MorecomplexityMultifactorBuild-upexpensiveSimple•maynotbecurrentmarketconditions•Canapplytoheldcompanies.4EquitySummaryCalculateERP(equityriskpremium)Historicalestimate;Forward-lookingestimate.GGMestimate;Macroeconomicmodelestimate;Surveyestimate.4EquitySummaryCalculaterequiredratereturnCAPMActivelytradedpubliccompany;AdjustedBeta;TinytradedornonpublicMultifactormodelFama-Frenchmodel(FFM);model(PSM);MacroeconomicMultifactormodels.Build-upmethodBondyield+riskpremium.4InternationalConsiderationExchangerateTheexchangerateinfluencesthereturnonforeigninvestmenttermhomecurrency.DataandmodelissuesemergingmarketsCountryspreadmodel:thecountrypremiumrepresentsapremiumassociatedwiththeexpectedgreaterrisktheemergingmarketcomparedthebenchmarkdevelopedmarket.Equitypremium=Equitypremiumforadevelopedmarket+CountrypremiumCountryratingmodel:providesaregression-basedestimatetheequityriskpremium.Theestimatedregressionequationthenusedwiththeriskratingsforlessdevelopedmarketspredicttherequiredreturnforthosemarkets.4Thecapitalmostcommonlyestimatedusingtheafter-taxweightedaveragecostcapital,orweightedaveragecostcapitalforshort.AweightedaveragerequiredratesreturnforthecomponentsourcescapitalMVDMVD+MVCEdMVCEMVD+MVCEWACC=r1-Taxrate+rThechangescapitalstructureresultschangesEliminatetheimpactfromfrequentchangescapitalstructureestimatingthetargetcapitalstructureusedestimatethe46.RateSelectionintoFlowBeingusedasdiscountratesvaluation,requiredreturnsneedbedefinedappropriatelythecashflowsbediscounted.CashflowequitytherequiredreturnonequityCashflowthefirmthecostcapital(after-taxweightedaveragecostcapital)Whenflowsstatedrealterms,amountsreflectoffsetsmadeforactualoranticipatedchangesthepurchasingpower.NominalcashflowsnominaldiscountratesRealcashflowsrealdiscountrates426Industry41.ApproachesforEquityModels•••RevenueForecastApproachesForecastFrameworkForecastSellingGeneralandAdministrativeCosts(SG&A)ForecastFinancingCostForecastIncomeExpense••234.ForecastingBalanceSheetItems.ReturnonInvestedCapital(ROIC).CompetitiveBasedonaPorterForcesForecastSalesandCostsSubjectPriceInflationandDeflation678.EffectsDevelopment.ForecastHorizon.Sales-basedProFormaCompanyModel4ApproachesEquityModelsAbottom-upapproachbeginsattheleveltheindividualcompanyoraunitwithinthesuchasindividualproductlines,locations,orbusinesssegments.AnalyststhenaggregatetheirprojectionsfortheindividualproductsorsegmentsarriveataforecasttotalrevenuefortheE.G.timeseries,returnoncapital,capacity-basedmeasure.Atop-downapproachusuallybeginsattheleveltheoveralleconomE.g.growthGDPgrowth,marketgrowthandmarketshare.Ahybridapproachcombineselementsbothtop-downandbottom-upanalysis.Hybridanalysisthemostcommontype.Canbeusefulforuncoveringimplicitassumptionsorerrorsthatmayarisefromusingasingleapproach.4ApproachestoModelingGrowthrelativetoGDPgrowthFirstforecaststhegrowthratenominalgrossdomesticproduct;ThenconsidershowthegrowthratethespecificcompanybeingexaminedwillcomparewithnominalGDPgrowth.g+x%org×(1+x%)GDPGDPMarketgrowthandmarketshareFirstforecastsgrowthaparticularmarket;Thenconsidersthecurrentmarketshare,andhowthatsharechangeovertime.Analystsoftenthinktermspercentagepointpremiumsordiscountsderivedfromapositiontheindustrialcycleorbusinesscycle5Bottom-upApproachestoModelingTimeseriesForecastsbasedonhistoricalgrowthratesortime-seriesanalysis.ReturnonForecastsbasedonbalancesheetaccounts,forexampleinterestrevenueforamaybecalculatedasmultipliedbytheaverageinterestrate.Capacity-basedmeasureForecasts(forexample,retailing)basedonsame-storesalesgrowthandsalesrelatednewstores.5ForecastForecastingCOGSasapercentageofsalesandforecastinggrossmarginpercentageareequivalentinthatavalueforoneimpliesavalueforthe最新资料领取微：xuebajun888sCompetitors’grossmarginscanalsoprovideausefulcrosscheckforestimatingarealisticgrossmarginGrossmargindifferencesamongcompanieswithinasectorshouldlogicallyrelatetodifferencesintheirbusinessoperations;Differencesincompetitors’grossmarginsdoesnotalwaysindicateasuperiorcompetitivepositionbutinsteadcouldsimplyreflectdifferencesinbusinessmodels.5ForecastAsmallerrorthisitemcanhaveamaterialimpactontheforecastedoperatingAnalystsshouldconsiderwhetherananalysisthesecosts(e.g.,bysegment,byproductcategory,orbyvolumeandpricecomponents)canimproveforecastingaccuracy.E.G.somecompaniesfacefluctuatinginputcoststhatcanbepassedoncustomersonlywithatimelag.Particularlyforcompaniesthathavelowgrossmargins,suddenshocksinputcostscanaffectoperating5ScaleCharacteristicseconomiesAsituationwhichaveragecostsperunitagoodorserviceproducedfallasvolumerises.andoperatingmarginstendbepositivelycorrelatedwithsaleslevelsanindustrythatenjoyseconomiesscale.EconomiesmayappearFactorsthatcanleadeconomiesscaleinclude,athigherlevelsproduction,greaterpowerwithsuppliers,lowercostcapital,andlowerperunitadvertisingexpenses;EvidenceeconomiesLowerproportionCOGS;LowerproportionSG&A.5ForecastCloserexaminationthevolumeandpriceainputsmayimprovethequalityaforecastCOGS,especiallytheshortrun.AnalystsconsiderahedgingThroughvarioushedgingstrategies,acompanycanmitigatetheimpactonE.g.Thenegativeimpactincreasingsalespricesonsalesvolumecanbemitigatedbyapolicygradualsalespriceincreases.margindifferencesamongcompanieswithinasectorshouldlogicallyrelatedifferencestheirbusinessoperations.ForecastCOGS=(historicalCOGS/revenue)(estimateoffuturerevenue)ForecastCOGS=(1-grossmargin)(estimateoffuturerevenue)5&SG&AoperatingexpenseshavelessadirectrelationshipwiththerevenueaFixedcomponentResearchanddevelopmentexpenseFluctuatelessthansales.OverheadcostsmajorlydeterminedbyNumberemployeesattheheadoffice;Supportingandadministrativeoperations.component:sellinganddistributionexpensesoftenhaveacomponentandcanbeestimated.CertainexpenseswithinSG&Amorethanothers.Sellinganddistributionexpensesoftenhaveacomponentandcanbeestimatedasapercentagesales.5ForecastFinancingThedebtlevelcombinationwiththeinterestratethemaindriversforecastingdebtfinancingexpensesNetdebt:grossdebtLesscash,cashequivalents,andshort-termdeposits;Netinterestexpense:Interestexpenseminusinterestincome.Financialstatementsdetailaboutthematuritystructurethedebtandthecorrespondinginterestrates.Thisinformationcanbeusedestimatefuturefinancingexpenses.5ExampleDutchGrocerAholdhasadebtstructurewithahighamountcashonbalancesheet.€）Average*（GrossdebtCash+STsecuritiesNetdebtGrossinterestexpenseforInterestincomeforNetinterestexpense*Averagevalues=(beginning+endingvalue)/21.Calculatetheinterestexpenserateontheaveragegrossdebtandinterestrateontheaveragecashposition2.Calculatetheinterestrateontheaveragenetdebt,assumingtheotherfinancialincomeandexpensesnotrelatedthedebtorcashbalances.5ExampleCorrectAnswer:Interestexpenserateonaveragegrossdebtcalculatedasinterestexpensedividedbyaveragegrossdebt:million/million)=orTheinterestrateonaveragecashpositioninterestincomedividedbytheaveragecashposition:million/million)=Theinterestrateontheaveragenetdebtcalculatedasnetinterestexpensedividedbyaveragenetdebtmillion/million)=5ForecastIncomeExpensetaxratesThestatutorytaxrate,whichthetaxrateapplyingwhatconsideredbeadomestictaxbase;Theeffectivetaxrate,whichcalculatedasthereportedtaxamountontheincomestatementdividedbytheincome;Thetaxrate,whichthetaxactually(cashtax)dividedbypre-taxincome.Thereconciliationbetweentheandlosstaxamountandthecashflowtaxfiguresshouldbethechangethedeferredtaxassetoramount=cashflowtaxfigure+changesdeferredtax-changesdeferredtaxassets6amongIncomeExpenseDifferencesbetweenthestatutorytaxrateandtheeffectivetaxratecanariseformanyreasons.credits,withholdingtaxondividends,adjustmentspreviousyears,andexpensesnotdeductiblefortaxpurposesamongthereasonsfordifferences.Thenotesonthefinancialstatementsshoulddiscloseothertypesitems,somewhichcouldcontributeatemporarilyhighorloweffectivetaxrate.Effectivetaxratescandifferwhencompaniesactiveoutsidethecountrywhichtheydomiciled.Agoodstartingpointforestimatingfuturetaxexpenseataxratebasedonnormalizedoperatingincome.Thisnormalizedtaxrateshouldbeagoodindicationthefuturetaxexpense,anearningsmodel.6ForecastingBalanceSheetItemsSomebalancesheetitemsflowdirectlyfromtheincomestatementwhereasotherlinesverycloselyincomestatementprojections.capitalitems:assumedthatworkingcapitalasapercentagesaleswillremainconstant.Inventory=forecastedannualCOGS/InventoryturnoverratioProjectedaccountsreceivable=(dayssalesoutstanding)×(forecastedsales/365)Estimateincludeonlythebalancesheetitemsrelatedtorevenuesandcosts(i.e.,inventories,tradeandotherreceivables,andtradeandotherpayables)andtheotheritemsconstant.6ForecastingBalanceSheetItemsPP&E:changesaresultexpendituresanddepreciationDepreciationforecastsusuallybasedondepreciationanddisclosureaboutdepreciationschedules,whereascapitalexpenditureforecastsdependonthejudgmentthefutureneedfornewPP&E;Capitalexpenditurescanbethoughtasincludingbothmaintenancecapitalexpenditures,whichnecessarysustainthecurrentbusiness,andgrowthcapitalexpenditures,whichneededexpandthebusiness.6InvestedCapitalOncefutureincomestatementsandbalancesheetsconstructed,analystscandeterminetheratereturnoninvestedcapital(ROIC).Invested:calculatedasoperatingassetslessoperating푛푒푡표푝푒푟푎푡푖푛푔푝푟표푓푖푡푎푑푗푢푠푡푒푑푓표푟푡푎푥푒푠(푁푂푃퐿퐴푇)푹푶푰푪=푖푛푣푒푠푡푒푑푐푎푝푖푡푎푙ROICabettermeasurethanreturnonequitybecausenotaffectedbyadegreefinancialleverage.Ingeneral,sustainablyhighROICasignacompetitiveadvantage.퐸퐵퐼푇푹푶푪푬=푐푎푝푖푡푎푙푒푚푝푙표푦푒푑Returnoncapitalemployed(debtandequitycapital)essentiallyROICbeforetax.ROCEcanbeusefulwithdifferenttaxstructuresbecausecomparisonunderlyingwouldnotbebiasedfavorcompaniesbenefittingfromlowtaxrateregimes.6Sensitivityanalysis&ScenarioanalysisSensitivitySensitivityanalysisinvolveschangingoneassumptionatatimeseetheeffectontheestimateintrinsicScenarioanalysishasthesamebutinvolveschangingmultipleassumptionsatthesametime.6aPorternewThecompanieshavelimitedpricingpowerNumeroussubstitutesexistcostsRivalrysuppliersbuyersTheindustriesfragmentedLimitedgrowthHighexitbarriers,highfixedcostsIdenticalproductofferingsThecompaniesfacedownwardpressureonThepowersuppliershighThecustomershavegreaterdemandlowerpricesand/orcontrolthequalityandquantityendproductsThethreatnewentrantshigh6andInflationanddeflation:cansignificantlyaffecttheaccuracyforecastsforafuturerevenue,andcashIndustryandinflationordeflationMostincreasesthecostinputs;CommoditiesorResulthigherpricesforendproducts.Industrystructurecanbeanimportantfactordeterminingtherelationshipbetweenincreasesinputcostsandincreasesthepriceendproducts.Inthehighlycompetitiveconsumergoodsmarket,pricingstronglyinfluencedbymovementsinputprices,whichcanaccountforhalfthecostgoodssold.6InflationandDeflationCompanysalesandinflationordeflationForecastingrevenueforacompanyfacedwithinflationininputcostsrequiressomeunderstandingofthepriceelasticityoftheproducts.Theimpactofhigherpricesonvolumedependsonthepriceelasticityofdemand最新资料领取微：xuebajun888sIfdemandisrelativelypriceinelastic,revenueswillbenefitfrominflation;Ifdemandisrelativelypriceelastic,revenuecandeclineevenifunitpricesareraised.6andDeflationIndustryandinflationordeflationwiththespecificpurchasingcharacteristicsanindustrycanalsobeusefulforecastingcosts;Monitoringtheunderlyingdriversinputpricescanbeusefulforecastingcosts;Understandhowinflationordeflationaffectsanindustry’scoststructuredependsoncompetitiveenvironment.CompanycostsandinflationordeflationInforecastingacosts,oftenhelpfulsegmentthecoststructurebycategoryandgeographForeachitemcost,anassessmentshouldbemadeabouttheimpactpotentialinflationanddeflationoninputprices.6ExampleNestléabeveragemanufacture,thedatafollowedaparttheincomestatementforNestleSalesunits@COGSunits@units@$GrossprofitSG&AOperatingprofit7ExampleAnalystforecaststhatincrease$4/unitnextWhatgrossandoperatingforIfNestléwouldoffsettheincreasingcostbyrisesellingpriceandassumethesalesvolumenotaffected,whatandoperatingmargin?Dueincreasesellingprice,salesvolumesdecreasedby5%.Whatmarginandoperatingmargin?Dueincreasesellingprice,salesvolumesdecreasedbyWhatandoperatingmargin?7ExampleCorrectAnswer:GrossmarginGrossprofit/salesOperatingSalesOperatingprofit/salesunits@units@units@GrossSG&AOperatingGrossmarginOperatingmargin7ExampleCorrectAnswer(cont.):Salesunits@units@$GrossSG&AOperatingGrossOperatingmargin7ExampleCorrectAnswer(cont.):Salesunits@units@$GrossSG&AOperatingGrossOperatingThemorevolumeslashedduetheincreasingprice,thelessoperatingNestlepreserved.7EffectsAdvancestechnologydevelopmentshavethepotentialchangetheeconomicsindividualbusinessesandentireindustries.Thedevelopmentattractivesubstituteproducts;Cannibalization:Whenatechnologicaldevelopmentresultsanewproductthatthreatenscannibalizedemandforanexistingproduct.ImpactsondemandcurveWhenchangestechnologyleadlowermanufacturingcosts,thesupplycurvewillshifttheright.Iftechnologyresultsthedevelopmentattractivesubstituteproducts,thedemandcurvewillshifttheleft.7ForecastingThechoicetheforecasttimehorizonmaybeinfluencedbycertainfactors.Theinvestmentstrategyforwhichthestockbeingconsidered;Cyclicalitytheindustry;Companyspecificfactors;Andtheemployerpreferences.Mostprofessionallymanagedequityinvestmentstrategiesdescribetheaverageholdingperi