世界银行（World Bank）：菲律宾经济发展月报2024年1月

PublicDisclosureAuthorized

PublicDisclosureAuthorized

Percentagepoint

percentagepoint

THEWORLDBANKRD-DAWeRBEekp

PhilippinesMonthlyEconomicDevelopments

January2024

Theeconomyexpandedby5.6percentyear-on-yearinQ42023asrobustprivateconsumptioncontinuedtofuelgrowth,whiletherecoveryoftourismbuoyedtheexpansionofservices.ThecumulativefiscaldeficitdeclinedinNovember2023,whilelowexternaldemanddampenedgoodsexports,whichweighedonmanufacturingoutputgrowth.Theunemploymentratefelltoa15-yearlowinNovember,supportedbystrongdomesticdemandduringtheholidays,yetjobqualityremainsaconcern.

GDPgrewby5.6percentyear-on-yearinQ42023(7.1percentinQ42022),bringingfull-yeargrowthto5.6percentin2023,

inlinewithWorldBankprojections.Servicesaccountedfornearly80percentofgrowth,thoughitsgrowthcontributiondeclinedfrom5.9percentagepoints(ppt)inQ42022to4.5pptinQ42023,reflectingareturntopre-pandemiclevels.Robustfinancialandinsuranceactivities,steadygrowthofwholesaleandretailtradeactivities,andthecontinuedrecoveryoftourismactivitiesfueledservicesgrowth.Thegrowthcontributionoftheindustrysectordeclinedto1.0pptinQ42023(1.4pptinQ42022)weighedbytheweaknessinmanufacturingexports.Agriculture'sgrowthcontributioninchedupto0.1ppt,ashigherfarmgatepricesledtoincreasedcropproductionandaslivestockproductionreboundedfollowingadiseaseoutbreakforhogsin2022.

Robustprivateconsumptionandbetter-than-expected

investmentgrowthsupportedeconomicactivity.Private

consumptionwasthemaingrowthdriveronthedemandside,bolsteredbyarobustlabormarketandsteadyremittances.However,thegrowthcontributionfellby1.3pptofGDPbecauseofstillhigh,albeitdeclininginflationandanormalizationinpent-updemand.Thegrowthcontributionofprivateinvestmentincreasedbythree-foldto2.4pptofGDPinQ42023despitehighinterestrates,drivenbystrongconstructionactivityandpurchaseofbig-ticketitemsinair

Figure1:Privateconsumptionandinvestmentspendingfueledgrowth.

■Exports

Imports

CapitalFormation

HouseholdFinalConsumptionExpenditure

mmentnson

Making,

Growth

Workfor

thePoor

transportequipment.Thegrowthcontributionofgovernmentconsumptionreversedto-0.2pptofGDPduetoongoingfiscalconsolidationandthetemporaryreductionofnationaltaxallotmentstolocalgovernmentunitsduetoalowerrevenuebasein2020.Meanwhile,thegrowthcontributionofexportsturnednegativein2023asglobaltradesawtheslowestgrowthoutsideglobalrecessionsinthepast50years.ThestrongrecoveryoftourismandIT-BPOactivitieswasmorethanoffsetbythecontractioninmerchandisetradeasanemicglobalindustrialproductionandsoftdemandforconsumerelectronicsimpacteddemandforthePhilippines'mainexportcommoditiessuchaselectronicsproducts.

Weakexternaldemandledtosoftergrowthinmanufacturing

activitieswhilerecovery

services.Manufactureof

oftourismactivitiessupported

electronics,foodproducts,and

beveragesdrovethe1.9percentincreaseinthevolumeof

productionindex(VoPl)inNovember.However,theexpansionwasbelowthe6.4percentgrowthinNovember2022duetoweaknessinexternaldemandformanufacturedproducts.ThedeclineinthePhilippines'S&PPMIto51.5inDecemberduetoslowergrowthinneworderssuggestssubduedmanufacturingactivitytoendtheyear.However,thisremainsthesecondhighestPMIreadingamongASEANpeers,nexttoIndonesia(52.2)andoutpacedtheglobalPMI(49.0).In2023,thecountryrecorded5.4milliontouristarrivals,morethantwicethe

Figure2:ServiceswasthemaingrowthengineinQ42023.

Agriculture

Manufacturing

-GrossDomesticProduct

OtherindustriesServices

PHILIPPINESMonthlyEconomicDevelopments|January2024

Percent

arrivalsin2022,andnearly80percentofthepre-pandemicaverage,suggestingspaceforfurtherrecovery.

ThecumulativefiscaldeficitasofNovember2023shrunkto5.1percentofyear-to-dateGDP,asongoingfiscal

consolidationledtoadeclineincurrentspending.Ona

cumulativebasis,revenuesdeclinedby0.3pptofGDPasofend-November2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Thedeclineinrevenueswasdrivenbylowertaxcollections,astaxcollectionsfromboththeBureauofInternalRevenueandBureauofCustomsdeclinedinNovember.Meanwhile,cumulativepublicspendingfellby1.4pptofGDPasaresultofongoingfiscalconsolidationandlowerfiscaltransferstoLocalGovernmentUnits.Infrastructureoutlayscontinuedtodrivepublicspendinggrowthin2023,althoughcapitaloutlayscontractedinNovemberduetooperationalissuesthatdelayedprojectdisbursementsintoDecember.Thedebt-to-

GDPratiofellby0.7pptofGDPto60.2percentofGDPinend-

2023.

Softerdemandfrominternationalmarketsledtocontinued

sluggishnessingoodstrade.Weakexternaldemand,asreflectedinthesoftnessinDecember'sglobalmanufacturingPurchasingManagers'Index(PMl)fornewexportordersledtoa0.5percenty/ydropingoodsexports(13.0percentdropinNovember2023).Thedeclineinexportswasfueledbythedouble-digitcontractioninexportsofmineralproductsandgrowthofexportsofmanufacturedgoodsslowedto0.5percentwith11outofthe16manufacturedgoodscommoditygroupsregisteringexportdeclines.Meanwhile,goodsimportsfellby5.1percentastheslowdowninnewordersdentedimportsofrawmaterialsandintermediategoods(-5.8percent)andasthedeclineinglobalcommoditypricesledtoareductionintheimportsofmineralfuels,lubricants,andotherrelatedmaterials(-27.2percent).However,consumer

Figure3:InflationfellwithincentralbanktargetinDecember2023as

foodandutilitiesinflationeased.

Making,

Growth

Workfor

thePoor

goodsimportsexpandedby10.6percentinDecember,fueledbyrobustprivateconsumption.Thetradebalancenarrowedby11.0percenty/yduringthemonthandamountedto-10.5percentofnominalGDPinQ42023.

Inflationfelltowithinthecentralbank's2-4percenttarget

forthefirsttimein22monthsduetolowerenergyandfood

prices.Headlineinflationslowedto3.9percenty/yinDecember(4.1percentinNovember),thoughstillthehighestamongpeersintheASEANregion.Acombinationoffavorablebaseeffects,fallingglobalenergyprices,andimprovingfoodsupplycontributedtocoolinginflation.However,priceofstaplecommoditiessuchasriceremainedelevated(19.6percenty/y)duetorisingimportedriceprices.Coreinflationcontinuedtofallto4.4percenty/yinDecember(4.7percentinNovember),suggestingsustainedeasingofunderlyingpricepressures.TheBangkoSentralngPilipinaskeptthekeypolicyratesteadyat6.5percentinDecember.Thegovernmentextendedthereductionofimporttariffratesforpork,rice,andcornuntiltheendof2024.

Strongdomesticactivityduringtheholidayspushedtheunemploymentratetoan18-yearlowinNovember,although

thequalityofjobsremainsaconcern.Theunemploymentrate

fellfrom4.2percentinOctoberto3.6percentinNovember,wellbelowthepre-pandemiclevelof5.1percentin2019.Holidayspendingboostedbusinessactivities,fuelingthemonth-on-monthemploymentgrowthinwholesaleandretailtrade,accommodationandfoodservices,andtransportationsectors.However,theaddedjobswereofpoorquality,asreflectedbytheriseofshareofelementaryoccupations

associatedwithlowerpayfrom27.1percentinOctoberto30.3percentinNovember.

Figure4:Manufacturingremainedupbeatastourismdriveservicesactivities.

PurchasingManagers'Index(PMI)

Note:ForS&PGlobalPMI,anindexabove50indicatesanexpansion,andanindexbelow50impliesacontraction.Dataareseasonallyadjusted.

Source:BSPandS&PGlobal.

PHILIPPINESMonthlyEconomicDevelopments|January2024

DevelopmentstoWatch

·Inflation:WillinflationcontinuetofallwithintheBSP'stargetrangeinJanuary2023?

·Fiscal:WillthePhilippinegovernmentreachitsfull-yearfiscaltarget?

●Trade:Willthedecelerationinglobaltradecontinueaffectingexportdynamismathome?

SelectedEconomicandFinancialIndicators

2022

2023

Q32023

Q42023

0ct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

In

percent,unless

otherwise

indicated

RealGDPgrowth,atconstantmarketprices

7.6

5.6

5.9

5.6

Privateconsumption

8.3

5.6

5.0

5.3

Governmentconsumption

4.9

0.

6.7

-1.8

Capitalformation

13.8

5.4

1.6

11.2

Exports,goodsandservices

10.9

1.3

2.6

-2.6

Imports,goodsandservices

13.9

13.6

1.3

2.9

IndustryPerformance

ValueofProductionIndex(growthrate)

49.2

6.8

1.1

2.2

VolumeofProductionIndex(growthrate)

52.6

6.6

1.5

1.9

AverageCapacityUtilization

65.8

74.0

74.3

74.8

S&PPhilippinesPurchasingManagers'Index

51.3

51.8

50.7

52.2

52.4

52.7

51.5

MonetaryandBankingsector

HeadlineConsumerPriceIndex(growthrate)

5.8

6.0

5.3

4.4

4.9

4.1

3.9

CoreConsumerPriceIndex(growthrate)

3.9

6.6

6.3

4.6

5.3

4.7

4.4

Domesticliquidity(M3)(growthrate)

6.9

6.8

8.1

7.0

Creditgrowth(universalandcommercialbanksloanstoresidents)

8.2

9.1

8.3

9.5

Businessloans

8.6

5.6

6.2

5.9

Consumerloans

7.9

26.0

24.0

24.4

Fiscalsector(QuarterandAnnual)

Fiscalbalance(%ofGDP)

7.3

6.6

-5.9

8.5

TotalRevenue(%ofGDP)

16.1

14.6

16.2

12.6

TaxRevenue(%ofGDP)

14.6

13.3

14.7

11.8

TotalExpenditure(%ofGDP)

23.4

21.2

24.5

21.1

Nationalgovernmentdebt(%ofGDP,eop)

60.9

60.2

60.2

60.2

Stockmarket

PSEi(month-endvalue)

6566.4

6439.5

6383.4

6216

5973.8

6223.7

6450.0

Externalaccounts

Currentaccountbalance(%ofGDP)

4.5

2.0

Exportsofgoods(growthrate)1/

5.7

-7.4

-0.9

9.9

-16.1

13.0

-0.5

Import