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PublicDisclosureAuthorized
PublicDisclosureAuthorized
Percentagepoint
percentagepoint
THEWORLDBANKRD-DAWeRBEekp
PhilippinesMonthlyEconomicDevelopments
January2024
Theeconomyexpandedby5.6percentyear-on-yearinQ42023asrobustprivateconsumptioncontinuedtofuelgrowth,whiletherecoveryoftourismbuoyedtheexpansionofservices.ThecumulativefiscaldeficitdeclinedinNovember2023,whilelowexternaldemanddampenedgoodsexports,whichweighedonmanufacturingoutputgrowth.Theunemploymentratefelltoa15-yearlowinNovember,supportedbystrongdomesticdemandduringtheholidays,yetjobqualityremainsaconcern.
GDPgrewby5.6percentyear-on-yearinQ42023(7.1percentinQ42022),bringingfull-yeargrowthto5.6percentin2023,
inlinewithWorldBankprojections.Servicesaccountedfornearly80percentofgrowth,thoughitsgrowthcontributiondeclinedfrom5.9percentagepoints(ppt)inQ42022to4.5pptinQ42023,reflectingareturntopre-pandemiclevels.Robustfinancialandinsuranceactivities,steadygrowthofwholesaleandretailtradeactivities,andthecontinuedrecoveryoftourismactivitiesfueledservicesgrowth.Thegrowthcontributionoftheindustrysectordeclinedto1.0pptinQ42023(1.4pptinQ42022)weighedbytheweaknessinmanufacturingexports.Agriculture'sgrowthcontributioninchedupto0.1ppt,ashigherfarmgatepricesledtoincreasedcropproductionandaslivestockproductionreboundedfollowingadiseaseoutbreakforhogsin2022.
Robustprivateconsumptionandbetter-than-expected
investmentgrowthsupportedeconomicactivity.Private
consumptionwasthemaingrowthdriveronthedemandside,bolsteredbyarobustlabormarketandsteadyremittances.However,thegrowthcontributionfellby1.3pptofGDPbecauseofstillhigh,albeitdeclininginflationandanormalizationinpent-updemand.Thegrowthcontributionofprivateinvestmentincreasedbythree-foldto2.4pptofGDPinQ42023despitehighinterestrates,drivenbystrongconstructionactivityandpurchaseofbig-ticketitemsinair
Figure1:Privateconsumptionandinvestmentspendingfueledgrowth.
■Exports
Imports
CapitalFormation
HouseholdFinalConsumptionExpenditure
mmentnson
Making,
Growth
Workfor
thePoor
transportequipment.Thegrowthcontributionofgovernmentconsumptionreversedto-0.2pptofGDPduetoongoingfiscalconsolidationandthetemporaryreductionofnationaltaxallotmentstolocalgovernmentunitsduetoalowerrevenuebasein2020.Meanwhile,thegrowthcontributionofexportsturnednegativein2023asglobaltradesawtheslowestgrowthoutsideglobalrecessionsinthepast50years.ThestrongrecoveryoftourismandIT-BPOactivitieswasmorethanoffsetbythecontractioninmerchandisetradeasanemicglobalindustrialproductionandsoftdemandforconsumerelectronicsimpacteddemandforthePhilippines'mainexportcommoditiessuchaselectronicsproducts.
Weakexternaldemandledtosoftergrowthinmanufacturing
activitieswhilerecovery
services.Manufactureof
oftourismactivitiessupported
electronics,foodproducts,and
beveragesdrovethe1.9percentincreaseinthevolumeof
productionindex(VoPl)inNovember.However,theexpansionwasbelowthe6.4percentgrowthinNovember2022duetoweaknessinexternaldemandformanufacturedproducts.ThedeclineinthePhilippines'S&PPMIto51.5inDecemberduetoslowergrowthinneworderssuggestssubduedmanufacturingactivitytoendtheyear.However,thisremainsthesecondhighestPMIreadingamongASEANpeers,nexttoIndonesia(52.2)andoutpacedtheglobalPMI(49.0).In2023,thecountryrecorded5.4milliontouristarrivals,morethantwicethe
Figure2:ServiceswasthemaingrowthengineinQ42023.
Agriculture
Manufacturing
-GrossDomesticProduct
OtherindustriesServices
PHILIPPINESMonthlyEconomicDevelopments|January2024
Percent
arrivalsin2022,andnearly80percentofthepre-pandemicaverage,suggestingspaceforfurtherrecovery.
ThecumulativefiscaldeficitasofNovember2023shrunkto5.1percentofyear-to-dateGDP,asongoingfiscal
consolidationledtoadeclineincurrentspending.Ona
cumulativebasis,revenuesdeclinedby0.3pptofGDPasofend-November2023comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Thedeclineinrevenueswasdrivenbylowertaxcollections,astaxcollectionsfromboththeBureauofInternalRevenueandBureauofCustomsdeclinedinNovember.Meanwhile,cumulativepublicspendingfellby1.4pptofGDPasaresultofongoingfiscalconsolidationandlowerfiscaltransferstoLocalGovernmentUnits.Infrastructureoutlayscontinuedtodrivepublicspendinggrowthin2023,althoughcapitaloutlayscontractedinNovemberduetooperationalissuesthatdelayedprojectdisbursementsintoDecember.Thedebt-to-
GDPratiofellby0.7pptofGDPto60.2percentofGDPinend-
2023.
Softerdemandfrominternationalmarketsledtocontinued
sluggishnessingoodstrade.Weakexternaldemand,asreflectedinthesoftnessinDecember'sglobalmanufacturingPurchasingManagers'Index(PMl)fornewexportordersledtoa0.5percenty/ydropingoodsexports(13.0percentdropinNovember2023).Thedeclineinexportswasfueledbythedouble-digitcontractioninexportsofmineralproductsandgrowthofexportsofmanufacturedgoodsslowedto0.5percentwith11outofthe16manufacturedgoodscommoditygroupsregisteringexportdeclines.Meanwhile,goodsimportsfellby5.1percentastheslowdowninnewordersdentedimportsofrawmaterialsandintermediategoods(-5.8percent)andasthedeclineinglobalcommoditypricesledtoareductionintheimportsofmineralfuels,lubricants,andotherrelatedmaterials(-27.2percent).However,consumer
Figure3:InflationfellwithincentralbanktargetinDecember2023as
foodandutilitiesinflationeased.
Making,
Growth
Workfor
thePoor
goodsimportsexpandedby10.6percentinDecember,fueledbyrobustprivateconsumption.Thetradebalancenarrowedby11.0percenty/yduringthemonthandamountedto-10.5percentofnominalGDPinQ42023.
Inflationfelltowithinthecentralbank's2-4percenttarget
forthefirsttimein22monthsduetolowerenergyandfood
prices.Headlineinflationslowedto3.9percenty/yinDecember(4.1percentinNovember),thoughstillthehighestamongpeersintheASEANregion.Acombinationoffavorablebaseeffects,fallingglobalenergyprices,andimprovingfoodsupplycontributedtocoolinginflation.However,priceofstaplecommoditiessuchasriceremainedelevated(19.6percenty/y)duetorisingimportedriceprices.Coreinflationcontinuedtofallto4.4percenty/yinDecember(4.7percentinNovember),suggestingsustainedeasingofunderlyingpricepressures.TheBangkoSentralngPilipinaskeptthekeypolicyratesteadyat6.5percentinDecember.Thegovernmentextendedthereductionofimporttariffratesforpork,rice,andcornuntiltheendof2024.
Strongdomesticactivityduringtheholidayspushedtheunemploymentratetoan18-yearlowinNovember,although
thequalityofjobsremainsaconcern.Theunemploymentrate
fellfrom4.2percentinOctoberto3.6percentinNovember,wellbelowthepre-pandemiclevelof5.1percentin2019.Holidayspendingboostedbusinessactivities,fuelingthemonth-on-monthemploymentgrowthinwholesaleandretailtrade,accommodationandfoodservices,andtransportationsectors.However,theaddedjobswereofpoorquality,asreflectedbytheriseofshareofelementaryoccupations
associatedwithlowerpayfrom27.1percentinOctoberto30.3percentinNovember.
Figure4:Manufacturingremainedupbeatastourismdriveservicesactivities.
PurchasingManagers'Index(PMI)
Note:ForS&PGlobalPMI,anindexabove50indicatesanexpansion,andanindexbelow50impliesacontraction.Dataareseasonallyadjusted.
Source:BSPandS&PGlobal.
PHILIPPINESMonthlyEconomicDevelopments|January2024
DevelopmentstoWatch
·Inflation:WillinflationcontinuetofallwithintheBSP'stargetrangeinJanuary2023?
·Fiscal:WillthePhilippinegovernmentreachitsfull-yearfiscaltarget?
●Trade:Willthedecelerationinglobaltradecontinueaffectingexportdynamismathome?
SelectedEconomicandFinancialIndicators
2022
2023
Q32023
Q42023
0ct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
In
percent,unless
otherwise
indicated
RealGDPgrowth,atconstantmarketprices
7.6
5.6
5.9
5.6
Privateconsumption
8.3
5.6
5.0
5.3
Governmentconsumption
4.9
0.
6.7
-1.8
Capitalformation
13.8
5.4
1.6
11.2
Exports,goodsandservices
10.9
1.3
2.6
-2.6
Imports,goodsandservices
13.9
13.6
1.3
2.9
IndustryPerformance
ValueofProductionIndex(growthrate)
49.2
6.8
1.1
2.2
VolumeofProductionIndex(growthrate)
52.6
6.6
1.5
1.9
AverageCapacityUtilization
65.8
74.0
74.3
74.8
S&PPhilippinesPurchasingManagers'Index
51.3
51.8
50.7
52.2
52.4
52.7
51.5
MonetaryandBankingsector
HeadlineConsumerPriceIndex(growthrate)
5.8
6.0
5.3
4.4
4.9
4.1
3.9
CoreConsumerPriceIndex(growthrate)
3.9
6.6
6.3
4.6
5.3
4.7
4.4
Domesticliquidity(M3)(growthrate)
6.9
6.8
8.1
7.0
Creditgrowth(universalandcommercialbanksloanstoresidents)
8.2
9.1
8.3
9.5
Businessloans
8.6
5.6
6.2
5.9
Consumerloans
7.9
26.0
24.0
24.4
Fiscalsector(QuarterandAnnual)
Fiscalbalance(%ofGDP)
7.3
6.6
-5.9
8.5
TotalRevenue(%ofGDP)
16.1
14.6
16.2
12.6
TaxRevenue(%ofGDP)
14.6
13.3
14.7
11.8
TotalExpenditure(%ofGDP)
23.4
21.2
24.5
21.1
Nationalgovernmentdebt(%ofGDP,eop)
60.9
60.2
60.2
60.2
Stockmarket
PSEi(month-endvalue)
6566.4
6439.5
6383.4
6216
5973.8
6223.7
6450.0
Externalaccounts
Currentaccountbalance(%ofGDP)
4.5
2.0
Exportsofgoods(growthrate)1/
5.7
-7.4
-0.9
9.9
-16.1
13.0
-0.5
Import
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