气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍

气候变化自然风险评价任务引见

PresentationonPhysicalImpactsWorkYinlongXU〔许吟隆〕InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgricultureChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),China中国农业科学院农业环境与可继续开展研讨所:+861082109766;&Fax:+861082106012:xuyl@ami.ac3Mar.2021AdaptingtoClimateChangeinChina:China-UK-SwissPartnership内容

Content任务进展Progress国家层面任务方案National-levelworkplan地方层面任务方案Province-levelworkplan未来任务Futurework任务进展

Progress国家层面任务方案

National-levelworkplan农业〔中国农业科学院〕Agriculture(CAAS)草地畜牧业〔中国农业大学〕Grassland-livestock(CAU)水资源〔南京水利科学研讨院〕Waterresources(NHRI)农业〔中国农业科学院〕：

Agriculture(CAAS)〔1〕曾经发生的气候变化影响的评价PhaseⅠ:Currentimpactandassessmentonclimatechange目的1：气候变化历史影响的检测Objective1:Detectthehistoricalimpactofclimatechange.目的2：分析曾经发生的气候变化与农业气候灾祸损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系Objective2:Analyzetherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeswhichhadhappenedandthelossofagro-meteorologicaldisasters,waterresources,croppingsystems.目的3：评价曾经采取的顺应气候变化措施Objective3:Assessadaptationmeasureswhichhavebeentakentoadapttoclimatechangeinthepast.目的4：农业灾祸风险处置措施评价及选择Objective4:Assessmentandadoptionofagriculturaldisasterriskdisposalmeasures.目的5：评价农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性Objective5:Evaluatethevulnerabilityaboutimpactofagricultureonclimatechange.〔2〕未来影响的评价PhaseⅡ:Impactandassessmentforthefuture目的1：评价模型的验证Objective1:ValidationofAssessmentModel.目的2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植构造调整战略Objective2:Undertheconditionsofclimatechangeinthefuture,thechangesincropplantingareaandmaincropsplantingboundariesandthestrategyofplantingstructuraladjustmentinChina.目的3：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评价Objective3:AssessmentthatclimatechangeinthefutureimpactsonmajorfoodcropsinChina.目的4：风险与脆弱性评价Objective4:Assessmentonriskandvulnerability.目的5：农业灾祸风险管理措施评价及建议Objective5:Assessmentandpropositionondisposalmeasuresofagriculturaldisasterrisk.〔3〕顺应措施和政策建议PhaseⅢ:Adaptationandpolicyrecommendations目的1：我国农业顺应气候变化空间区域划分Objective1:SpacedivisionaboutagriculturaladaptationtoclimatechangeinChina.目的2：技术清单编制Objective2:Preparationoftechnical-list.目的3：农业顺应气候变化的政策建议Objective3:Policyrecommendationsaboutagriculturaladaptationtoclimatechange.目的4：省级顺应框架的完善Objective4:Completetheadaptationframeworkofprovinciallevel.草地畜牧业〔中国农业大学〕

Grassland-livestock(CAU)目的1：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测Objective1Detectingtheimpactofclimatechangeongrasslandandlivestockhusbandry.目的2：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评价模型校验Objective2:Modeldevelopmentforassessmentoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonpasturelivestockproductionnationwide.目的3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评价Objective3:Assessmentofriskoffutureclimateonpasturelivestockproduction.目的4：提出草地畜牧业顺应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective4:Providenationalstrategiesofadaptationtoclimatechangeinpasturelivestockproduction.水资源〔南京水利科学研讨院〕

Waterresources(NHRI)目的1：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评价模型Objective1:ConsummateChina-wideassessmentmodelforclimatechangeimpactonwaterresources目的2：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去顺应极端干旱、洪涝灾祸的阅历Objective2:Detecttheeffectofclimatechangeonactualmeasurementofstreamflowintypicalwatershed;comprehensivelyanalyzetheexperienceofpastadaptingtoextremedroughtandfloods目的3：气候变化对未来水资源的能够影响评价Objective3：AssessthepotentialimpactofclimatechangeonfuturewaterresourcesoverChina目的4：水利顺应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective4:Addressnationaladaptationstrategyofwaterindustrytoclimatechange.地方层面任务方案

Province-levelworkplan宁夏Ningxia农业Agriculture水资源WaterResources顺应技术示范Adaptationcasestudy内蒙InnerMongolia草地畜牧业Grassland-livestock水资源Waterresources顺应案例研讨Adaptationcasestudy省份1：内蒙古Province1：InnerMongoliaⅠ：草地畜牧业〔内蒙古农业大学〕Ⅰ：Grassland-livestock(IMAgriculturalUniversity)目的1：气候变化对内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响评价Objective1ClimatechangeimpactsriskassessmentforwholeInnerMongoliagrassland-livestock目的2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估Objective2AssesstheCCriskimpactongrassland-livestockforwholeInnerMongoliagrasslandunderthefutureclimatescenarios

Ⅱ：水资源〔内蒙古水利局〕Ⅱ：WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofInnerMongolia)目的1：气候变化对内蒙古水资源的影响评价Objective1DetectionofclimaticchangeimpactsonInnerMongoliawaterresource目的2：气候变化对未来水资源的能够影响评价Objective2Futureriskassessment目的3：不同草原类型区顺应案例研讨Objective3CasestudyofdifferentgrasslandtyperegionaboutwaterresourcesⅢ：顺应案例研讨Ⅲ：TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations目的1：典型草原草地畜牧业区——锡林浩特Objective1Typicalsteppegrasslandandanimalhusbandryarea–Xilinhaote目的2：浑善达克沙地草地农业区——多伦Objective2Sandygrasslandagriculturalarea-Doron目的3：荒漠草原农牧交错带——四子王旗Objective3Ecotoneofdesertandgrassland-Siziwangqi省份2：宁夏Province2：NingxiaⅠ：农业〔宁夏气候研讨所〕Ⅰ：Agriculture(NingxiaMeteorologicalResearchInstitute)目的1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测Objective1AnalyzetheimpactofpresentclimatechangeonagricultureinNingxia目的2：未来影响的评价。评价未来气候变化条件下对宁夏农业消费的能够影响和脆弱性，思索极端气候事件〔偏重在干旱、高温等〕的影响，进展农业综适宜应气候变化措施的示范和效果评价，从农业气候灾祸的角度提出对农业消费有指点意义的顺应对策建议。Objective2Assessthefutureagriculturalproductionriskofclimatechange.AssessthepossibleimpactandvulnerabilityofclimatechangeonagriculturalproductioninNingxia,intermsofextremeclimateevents,especiallydroughtandhottemperatureevents.;demonstrateandevaluatethecomprehensivetechnologiestoadapttoclimatechange;provideindicativesuggestioninadaptingtoagro-meteorologicalhazards.目的3：气候变化综合对策分析Objective3ComprehensiveagriculturaladaptationrecommendationstoclimatechangeⅡ：水资源〔宁夏水利局〕Ⅱ：WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofNingxia)目的1：构建全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评价模型Objective1BuilddistributedassessmentmodelinNingxia目的2：气候变化对历史水资源的影响检测Objective2RiskassessmentsforthemainriversinNX目的3：气候变化对未来水资源的能够影响评价Objective3WaterbalanceassessmentforcasestudyareaandpolicyrecommendationsⅢ：顺应案例研讨Ⅲ：TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations目的1：主要研讨气候变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现“一年两季〞、提高冷凉山区农业消费效益的可行性Objective1Undertheconditionofclimatewarming,Mainlytostudytheimplementationofrevaccinationofwinterwheatandpasture,toachieve"one-yeartwoseasons,"andpromotethefeasibilityofagriculturalproductionefficiencyincoldmountainareas.目的2：主要进展气候变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新种类引进与示范栽培Objective2Undertheconditionofclimatewarming,mainlytointroduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingmaize目的3：主要进展顺应气候变暖条件下中晚熟马铃薯新种类引进与示范栽培Objective3Undertheconditionofadaptationtoclimatewarming,mainlytointroduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingpotatoes.目的4：主要进展豆科牧草〔紫花苜蓿、红豆草〕丰产及养畜利用技术示范研讨Objective4Mainlytostudythehighyieldofleguminousforage(alfalfa,Onobrychis)andusageoftechnol