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INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY
FUNDREGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOKEUROPERestoring
Price
Stability
andSecuring
Strong
and
Green
Grow
th2023NOVINTERNATIONAL
MONETARY
FUNDREGIONALECONOMICOUTLOOKEUROPERestoring
Price
Stability
andSecuring
Strong
and
Green
Grow
th2023NOVCopyright©2023InternationalMonetary
FundCataloging-in-Publication
DataIMF
LibraryNames:InternationalMonetary
Fund,publisher.Title:Regionaleconomicoutlook.
Europe:restoring
pricestability
andsecuringstrong
andgreengrowth.Other
titles:Europe:restoring
pricestability
andsecuringstrong
andgreengrowth.
|Restoring
pricestabilityandsecuringstrong
andgreengrowth.
|Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys.
|Regionaleconomicoutlook
:Europe.Description:Washington,DC
:InternationalMonetary
Fund,2023.|Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys.
|Nov.2023.|Includesbibliographicalreferences.Identifiers:9798400254116
(paper)9798400254185
(ePub)9798400254154
(WebPDF)Subjects:
LCSH:Economicforecasting—Europe.
|Economicdevelopment—Europe.|Europe—Economicconditions.Classification:LCC
HC240.A1R4452023The
Regional
Economic
Outlook:
Europe
is
published
twice
a
year,
in
the
spring
and
fall,
to
review
devel-opments
in
Europe.
Both
projections
and
policy
considerations
are
those
of
the
IMF
staff
and
do
notnecessarily
representthe
viewsofthe
IMF,
its
Executive
Board,orIMF
Management.Publicationordersmaybe
placedonlineorthroughthe
mail:InternationalMonetary
Fund,PublicationServicesP.O.
Box92780,Washington,DC
20090,U.S.A.T.
+(1)
202.623.7430F.
+(1)
202.623.7201publications@IMF.orgIMFelibrary.IMF.orgContentsiiiContentsExecutive
Summary
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vRestoring
PriceStability
andSecuringStrongandGreenGrowth
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1Finally,signsofinflationcooling...
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1…whilegrowth
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2Continuedlabormarkettightness
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6Europe’sOutlook:
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8Growth
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9Policies:SecuringPriceStability
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10Monetary
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10Fiscal
Policies:Fostering
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12FinancialPolicies:MaintainingFinancialStability.
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14Structural
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16References..
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17BOXESBox1.
Monetary
TransmisioninEurope
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20Box2.Ukraine
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22Box3.Russia...
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24Box4.Europe:Medium-TermDebtStabilizationRisks
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25Box5.HowVulnerableIs
EuropetoStress
inthe
CommercialRealEstate
Sector?
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27FIGURESFigure1.1.
InflationDevelopmentsandPolicyRates
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RecentEconomicDevelopments
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3Figure1.3.
Labor
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4Figure1.4.
InterplayamongWages,Profits,
andPrices
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5Figure1.5.
Europe:Growth,
Productivity,
andConvergence
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Past
andFutureStructural
Issues
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7Figure1.7.
Growth
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Europe:InflationPersistenceandPolicy
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13Figure1.10.
EuropeanBankCommonEquity
Tier
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17BoxFigure1.1.1.
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21BoxFigure1.2.1.
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22BoxFigure1.3.1.
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24BoxFigure1.4.1.
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25BoxFigure1.4.2.DebtNonstabilization
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25November
2023
•
INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY
FUNDivREGIONAL
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK—EuropeBoxFigure1.4.3.GrossFinancingNeeds:Post-versusPrepandemic..
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..26BoxFigure1.5.1.
Banks’Exposure
toCommercialRealEstate
Loans
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TransactionValuesinthe
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Market
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27BoxFigure1.5.3.ValueAddedofCommercialRealEstate
Firms,
2020.
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27BoxFigure1.5.4.CommonEquity
Tier
1DepletionCreditRiskLosses
inCommercialRealEstate
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..28TABLESAnnexTable
1.1
RealGDPGrowth
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29AnnexTable
1.2.
HeadlineInflation
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31INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY
FUND
•
November
2023Executive
SummaryvExecutive
SummaryAfter
having
dealt
successfully
with
the
challenges
of
the
pandemic
and
the
energy
price
shock
triggered
byRussia’s
war
in
Ukraine,
Europe
faces
the
difficult
task
of
restoring
price
stability
while
securing
strong
and
greengrowthover
thelonger
term.Global
shiftsfromgeoeconomicfragmentationand
thecurrentimpactof
climatechange
have
introduced
new
economic
challenges
that
add
to
long-standing
growth
problems
and
couldstall
convergence.Cooling
headline
inflation
is
providing
some
relief
to
households
and
firms.
Easing
commodity
prices
andsupply
constraints
have
been
mainly
responsible,
but
persistent
core
inflation
has
proved
more
difficult
to
tackle.Central
banks
across
Europehavetightened
their
monetary
policies
substantially,
and
governments
arescalingbackfiscal
support.The
lingering
effects
of
last
year’s
energy
price
shocks
and
tighter
policies
are
also
contributing
to
a
growthslowdown
this
year.
Countries
with
larger
manufacturing
or
energy-intensive
sectors
are
slowing
more
thanthose
that
depend
on
services
and
tourism.
Overall,
the
growth
forecast
is
shaped
by
the
opposing
forces
oftightermacroeconomicpoliciesandthe
recovery
inrealincomes,as
inflationfallsandwagesrise.The
outlook
for
Europe
is
for
a
soft
landing,
with
inflation
declining
gradually.
Growth
in
the
region
overall
isexpected
to
slow
to
1.3
percent
in
2023
from
2.7
percent
last
year,
and
improve
to
1.5
percent
in
2024.
Withinadvanced
Europeaneconomies,
service-oriented
economies
willrecoverfaster
than
those
with
relatively
largermanufacturing
sectors,
which
face
lowexternal
demandandaremoreexposed
tohighenergy
prices.
Similarly,European
emerging
market
economies
will
experience
a
mild
recovery
in
2024,
but
the
extent
will
vary
acrosscountries
depending
on
the
energy
intensity
of
production,
service
sector
orientation,
and,
especially
for
theeasternmost
countries,
disruptionoftrade
relationshipswith
Russia.Monetary
policy
is
approaching
the
end
of
the
tightening
cycle.
A
moderate
fiscal
consolidation
is
projected
for2023,
picking
up
in
2024.
Although
a
robust
US
economy
is
an
important
backstop
to
global
demand,
weakeractivity
in
China,
additional
commodity
price
shocks,
and
the
materialization
of
financial
stability
risks
areimportant
downside
risks
to
growth.
Tighter
monetary
policy
has
elevated
credit
costs
and
weakened
householdand
corporate
real
estate
balance
sheets.
Even
though
banks’
capital
buffers
are
healthy,
they
could
becomestrained
underanadverse
scenario.Inflation
is
expected
to
recede
only
gradually
over
the
forecast
period.
While
subdued
domestic
demand
in
2023and
lower
commodity
prices
will
be
passed
through
to
core
inflation,
the
projected
recovery
in
real
incomes
andstill-strong
labor
markets
will
slow
the
pace
of
disinflation.
Most
countries
are
not
expected
to
reach
inflationtargets
before
2025.
Sustained
nominal
wage
growth
above
inflation
and
productivity
growth
rates
is
a
keyrisk
to
disinflation,
especially
in
European
emerging
market
economies.
Inflation
could
become
entrenched,requiringadditionalpolicy
tighteningandpotentiallyleadingtostagflation.Europeis
facing
these
risks
at
atime
when
structural
shifts
from
geopolitical
fragmentation
and
climate
changearecompoundingalready-existing
long-term
growth
problems.Europe’smedium-termgrowth
prospects
havedeclined
for
some
time,
with
weakening
productivity
growth
a
key
factor.
The
new
challenges
of
higher
andmorevolatileenergycosts
andchangesinsupplyandtraderelationshipsaredisruptingproduction
structures.They
add
to
well-known
factors
(such
as
population
aging
and
labor
supply
constraints)
that
have
stymiedpotentialgrowth.Formost
European
emerging
market
economies,
the
combination
of
weak
productivity
and
aloss
of
wage-costcompetitiveness
could
stall
economic
convergence.
In
these
circumstances,
stabilization
of
public
debt
trajec-tories
could
also
prove
challenging,
especially
in
high-debt
countries
where
debt
needs
to
be
outright
reduced.November
2023
•
INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY
FUNDviREGIONAL
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK—EuropeIn
this
context,economic
policies
should
aim
to
restorepricestabilityand
strengtheneconomic
fundamentals.History
suggests
thatit
takesseveralyearsforinflationtoreturn
tonormallevelsafter
aninflationary
episode.Maintaining
a
restrictive
monetary
policy
stance
is
thus
paramount
to
securing
the
return
of
inflation
to
targetwithina
reasonabletimeframe.Uncertainty
aboutinflationpersistenceislarge,andthe
costofeasingtooearlyis
substantial.
The
required
tightness
of
monetary
policy
varies
with
country
circumstances,
but
many
centralbankswillhavetomaintainhighpolicy
rates
forsometime.Meanwhile,
countries
should
step
up
their
efforts
to
rebuild
or
preserve
fiscal
buffers
while
protecting
criticalspending
needs.
By
reducing
deficits,
fiscal
policy
complements
monetary
policy
in
the
fight
against
inflation.Remaining
untargeted
energy
support
should
be
phased
out
and
expenditure
and
revenue
inefficiencies
tackled.But
these
savings
may
not
be
enough
to
address
spending
needs
on
education,
demographic
headwinds,infrastructure,
and
climate
change
while
also
reining
in
large
deficits.
Moreover,
public
debt-to-GDP
ratiosare
projected
to
increase
over
the
medium
term
in
most
European
emerging
market
economies,
as
a
result
ofsluggish
growth
and
rising
debt
service
cost.
These
countries
will
also
need
to
better
rationalize
expenditureand
mobilize
revenues
to
bring
public
debt
ratios
on
a
downward
path.
For
EU
economies,
strengthening
thecapacity
to
absorb
EU
grants
for
climate-resilient
infrastructure,
social
protection,
and
accelerating
the
greentransition
continuestobe
apriority.Macrofinancialpoliciesshouldensurethatemergingriskstostabilityaremonitoredandcontained.Bankshaveincreasedtheirprofitsfromrisingnet
interestmargins.Theseresourcesshouldbe
usedtoraise
capital
buffers,including
through
regulatory
requirements.
Given
banks’
credit
exposure
to
the
real
estate
sector,
robustbuffers
are
even
more
important
at
a
time,
like
the
current
one,
when
the
property
market
faces
structural
andcyclical
headwinds.Structural
policies
remain
crucial
for
achieving
strong,
green,
and
evenly
distributed
growth.
Reforms
shouldfocus
on
removing
barriers
that
prevent
economic
innovation
and
dynamism.
A
strengthened
business
envi-ronment
with
policies
that
encourage
investment
and
spending
on
research
and
development
will
enhancecompetition
that
increases
productivity.
In
European
emerging
market
economies,
attracting
investment
alsorequires
strengthening
public
sector
management
and
governance;
better
job
matching;
and
reliable
digital,transportation,
and
energy
infrastructure.
Europe
needs
to
preserve
its
most
important
growth
asset—the
singlemarket.Sectoral
policiescan
playarole(whennetwork
externalities
arepresent)byraisingresearchanddevel-opment
spending
and
opening
access
to
new
technologies,
leading
to
increased
efficiencies
and
facilitating
thegreen
transition.
But
such
policies
need
to
be
deployed
surgically
and
with
care,
avoiding
costly
subsidy
races
oruseof
distortionary
tariffs.International
collaborationon
climate
change,
including
a
global
carbonpricefloor,is
essential
to
reducing
emissions
while
maintaining
competitiveness.
Recent
agreements
on
strengtheningEurope’semissionstradingsystem
areanimportant
step
towardachievingthe
EuropeanUnion’sclimategoals.INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY
FUND
•
November
2023Restoring
Price
Stability
and
Securing
Strong
and
Green
Growth1Restoring
Price
Stability
and
SecuringStrong
and
Green
Growth1After
navigating
the
double
crisis
of
the
pandemic
and
the
energy
price
shock
triggered
by
Russia’s
war
inUkraine,
Europe
faces
the
difficult
task
of
restoring
price
stability
and
building
fiscal
buffers
while
securingstrong
and
green
growth
over
the
longer
term.
Failing
to
tackle
inflation
decisively
now
will
diminish
resilienceand
risk
permanent
damage
to
growth
in
a
world
increasingly
exposed
to
shocks
from
fragmentation,
newtechnologies,andclimatechange.These
globalstructural
shifts
compoundEurope’spersistent
growth
andconvergenceproblemswhichpredatethepandemic.To
lift
Europe’sgrowthpotentialwhileeasinginflationpressures,
structuralpolicies
need
to
ease
supply
constraints,
raise
labor
supply,
and
improve
productivity.These
policy
challenges
vary
widely
among
advanced
and
European
emerging
market
economies
anddepend
on
how
hard
recent
shocks
affected
the
economy,
the
effectiveness
of
macroeconomic
policies,
andtheabilitytoreallocatelaborandcapitalintoareasofnewgrowth.Finally,
signs
of
inflation
cooling
.
.
.Europe
is
at
a
turning
point.
The
continent
simultaneously
grapples
with
firmly
bending
the
inflation
curve
in
thenear
term
and
attempting
to
revive
its
growth
engine
to
meet
future
structural
challenges.
As
the
immediateeconomic
effects
of
the
pandemic
and
energy
crisis
are
fading,
policymakers
now
need
to
focus
on
creatingthe
conditions
for
countries
to
operate
successfully
in
a
more
uncertain
and
shock-prone
global
environment.Establishing
macroeconomicstability
andcreatingmoreflexibleandadaptableeconomieswillbe
crucial.Major
central
banks
in
Europe
and
other
regions
have
continued
tightening
their
monetary
policy.
Somereached
their
highest
rates
over
two
decades
(Figure
1.1,
panel
1).In
contrast
to
advanced
European
economies,centralbanksinEuropeanemergingmarketeconomiesraised
ratesearlierandhaveslowedorpausedhikesin2023
(Czech
Republic,
Romania),
with
some
starting
to
ease
(Hungary,
Poland).
Most
countries
are
also
rollingbackbroad-based
fiscal
support
tocopewith
highenergycosts
andarestarting
toconsolidatefiscal
positions.Although
domestic
demand
has
been
slowing
over
the
summer
months,
substantial
recessions
have
beenavoided,partly
because
ofstill-strong
labormarkets.Inflation
is
finally
showing
signs
of
declining.
Headline
inflation
is
falling
rapidly
while
core
inflation—a
gaugeof
underlying
inflation
pressures—remains
substantially
above
central
bank
targets
(Figure
1.1,
panel
2).
Theinterplay
of
three
salient
factors
is
driving
disinflation.
The
first
is
the
easing
of
commodity
and
other
supplyconstraints.
Falling
energy
and,
to
some
extent,
food
prices
directly
reduce
goods
prices
in
the
consumerprice
index
basket
and
have
been
driving
headline
inflation
down
from
its
peak,
doing
so
especially
fast
in
theeconomies
of
Central,
Eastern,
and
Southeastern
Europe
(CESEE).
The
impact
on
core
items
has
been
limited,given
a
slow
pass-through
of
energy
price
declines
into
retail
prices,
particularly
services
(Figure
1.1,
panel
3).A
second
factor
is
a
decline
in
domestic
demand
and
activity.
Less
fiscal
support
than
last
year
and
the
trans-mission
of
tighter
monetarypolicy
are
cooling
the
economy
and
reducing
inflationary
pressures.
However,
theeffects
are
building
only
gradually,
given
transmission
lags
(see
Box
1.1).
A
third
factor
is
the
decline
in
short-term
inflationexpectations
from
their
peak
in2022(Figure1.1,
panel
4),which
had
inthe
past
driven
inflation
up(October2023
WorldEconomicOutlook,Chapter2).1This
chapter
was
prepared
by
Manasa
Patnam
with
contributions
from
Oyun
Adilbish,
Gianluigi
Ferrucci,
Claire
Li,
Giacomo
Magistretti,Ben
Park,
Keyra
Primus,
Frederik
Toscani,
and
Tianxiao
Zheng
under
the
supervision
of
Helge
Berger
and
Stephan
Danninger.
GabrielDi
Bella
provided
useful
advice
and
comments.
Agnesa
Zalezakova
was
expertly
in
charge
of
administrative
support.November
2023
•
INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY
FUND2REGIONAL
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK—EuropeFigure1.1.InflationDevelopmentsandPolicyRates1.PolicyRatesinSelectedCountries2.EU27:InflationDynamics(Percent)(Percentcontribution;year-over-yearchange,rightscale)14.5221814106202050403020100CoreservicesEnergyCoredurablesFood2021(additional)2022(additional)2023(additional)Historicalmax(2000–19)Currentpolicyrate12.510.58.5HICPinflationCoreinflationPPI,industry(rightscale)Core:2021–23avg.Core:Prepandemicavg.6.54.522.5–2–60.5–1.5–103.NonenergyGoodsandServicesInflation4.EU27:InflationExpectations(Balanceofopiniononpriceincreases,three-monthmovingaverages)(Percentchange,year-over-year)146050403020100EAservicesEAgoodsEEservicesEEgoodsFirms:IndustryFirms:ServicesHouseholds:TopquartileHo
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