财务报表分析与证券投资姜国华

28十二月2023财务报表分析与证券投资姜国华TheFatherofAccounting-LucaPacioli

(1445-1517)HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble-entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality.Theknowledgewasusedtopaint“theLastSupper”2学过财务报表分析课程的请举手3DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930-20024DJIA,NASDAQ1990-20025BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-20026DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ1998-20027TheThreeMajorStockExchanges8TheRegulatorofU.S.StockMarketSEC,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionArthurLevitt,commissioner,1993-2000intheClintonadministrationNumbersGameSpeech,19989TheCurrentSECCommissioners10WhoIssueAmericanAccountingStandards?FASB:FinancialAccountingStandardsBoard Setupin1973toreplaceAccountingPrincipleBoard(APB) Anindependent,privateorganization StandardsissuedrecognizedbySEC

GAAP:GenerallyAcceptedAccountingStandards 7conceptstatements(principles) e.g.,No.7(February2000)Usingcashflowinformationandpresentvalueinaccountingmeasurements 148statementsofstandards(rules)bytheyearof2003 e.g.,No.1(December1973)Disclosureofforeigncurrencytranslationinformation11InternationalAccountingStandardsInternationalAccountingStandardsCommittee(IASC) BasedatLondon Independentandprivatelyfunded Meanttodesignasetofworldlyacceptedaccountingstandards Committeeserveasanadvisoryboardmember

.ukInternationalAccountingStandards 41standardsuptotheyearof2003 e.g.,IAS2.Inventory,January1,199512“BigFour”InternationalAccountingFirmsErnstYoung(worldwiderevenue2002:$10.1billions,4.3billionsintheU.S.)PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte&ToucheKPMG13中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会

(ChineseSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission)14NumberofStocksatShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges15AmountofCapitalRaisedThroughStockMarkets16MarketCapitalization17MarketSizerelativetoNYSE18MarketPerformance19ProfitabilityofChineseListedFirms:1992-200420ROE21

StockMarketCapitalization/GDP(%)

22SharetypesinChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegalpersonStateAshareBshareH,N,S,…Share2324ShareStructuresofChineseListedCompanies

(December,2001)Non-tradable(0.1billionshares): StateShares2410.6146.20％ DomesticLegalPersonShares663.1712.71％ Othernon-tradableShares331.076.4%Totalnon-tradable3404.8565.25％Tradable: AShares1318.1325.26%BShares163.093.13%H/Nandothershares331.946.36%TotalTradable:1813.1634.75%Total:5218.01100%25LargeShareholderexpropriationofminorityshareholders/TunnelingAnExample,Jiang,LeeandYue,(2005)2627China’sStockMarket:Aten-yearperspectiveFromzerotoanimportantemergingcapitalmarketFirstdevelopedfast,thenbecamestagnant: Fewernewlistings Marketindexdown Raiseslesscapital Lesstradingactivities ListedcompaniesperformedworseOverallLessimportantintheboomingeconomy!28TheUsersoffinancialstatementsEquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion29课程结构第一节会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节会计报表回顾-资产负债表第三节会计报表回顾-损益表第四节会计报表回顾-现金流量表第五节赢余管理与赢余质量第六节赢利能力分析第七节赢利预测第八节风险分析第九节证券价值评估30PerspectivesofThisCourseAsecurityanalyst’sperspectiveEmphasizetwoissues:EarningsManagementandvaluation31EarningsManagement:Rao,Teoh,Wong,ReviewofAccountingStudies,199832EarningsRestatements–MinWu,HKUST333435WidespreadEarningsManipulation(JiangandWang2005)36Accounting-basedValuationWhoaremypeers?Earningsmultiples,book-valuemultiples,salesmultiplesEVA®,Economicvalueadded,Residualincomevaluation(RIV),Edward,Bell,OhlsonModel(EBO)Inoneword,Sharevalue=f(earnings,bookvalue,dividend,cashflow,etc.)37Accounting-basedValuation-2Ultimately,wedovaluationtoearnhigherreturnsonstocktrading.Wegetanintrinsicvaluenumber,compareittoprevailingstockprice,ifourvalueestimateishigherthanprice,webuy;otherwisewesell.FrankelandLee,JournalofFinance,1999

Togetpapersmentioned,fromaPKUcomputer,gotoorjustaskfromme.38HowImportantisAccountingInformation?January22,2003,aftermarketclosed,AT&T(stocksymbolT)announced: Revenuefor4thquartershrankto$9.3billionfrom10.2billioninthe4thquarterofpreviousyear

Lossfromcontinuingoperationswidenedto$611millionfrom$216million.

39HowImportantisAccountingInformation?

(http:\\)40HowImportantisAccountingInformation?IntheweekendbeforeMonday,Feb.3,2003,Mattel(MAT)announcedfourthquarterresults:Revenueincreasedfromthefourthquarterayearearlierby6.9%to$1.56billion.Netincomeincreasedby35%to$186.1million.Earningspershare(EPS)increasedto42centsfrom31cents.41HowImportantisAccountingInformation?42ValueInvesting:WarrenBuffett

()43InvestingMottoTwofriendswenthuntinginthejungle.Allofasudden,abearjumpedoutofnowhereandcameafterthem.A:Run!B:No,itishop