政策法规对中国汽车产业影响

政策法规对中国汽车产业影响TheAutoMarketToday中国的汽车市场FutureTrend&Drivers未来市场的走向和影响因素RecentPolicies&Regulations近期的相关政策和法规2TheAutoMarketToday中国的汽车市场3TheRiseofPer-CapitaGDP人均GDPLargeMetropolisandCoastalAreas$3,000-$4,000直辖市及沿海地区45GrowthRateofAutomobileandCarProduction1993-2005汽车及轿车产量增幅(inmillionunits) 1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Total 1.291.351.451.471.581.631.832.072.353.254.465.105.73%change 22.14.37.31.387.373.1612.313.113.639.037.214.312.3Cars* 0.230.250.320.390.480.520.570.600.751.172.112.36 2.93%change 41.18.930.029.423.18.3311.56.9523.2756.080.311.824.2*Includessub-categorycarsandMPVs6AddingOneMillionUnitsAYear 年增百万辆 FirstMillion:1953-1992--40year SecondMillion:1993-2000--8years ThirdMillion:2001-2002--2years FourthMillion:2003--1year FifthMillion:2004–1years SixthMillion:2005–over1year SeventhMillion:2006–1year7GDPandOutputGrowthRatesGDP和汽车产量增幅8China’sautomarket:

mythandreality中国的汽车市场的真实性9101112

IntensifyingCompetition

竞争激烈6＋33＋?13DF-Yueda-KiaFAWCarFAW-VWSGMSVWHainan-MazdaGEELYTianjin-FAW-XialiTianjin-FAW-ToyotaChang’an-SuzukiDongfeng-Peugeot-CitroënCheryGuangzhou-HondaD-NissanBrilliance-JinbeiBJ-HyundaiChang’an-FordNJ-FiatChanghe-SuzukiHafeiAutoGuizhou-SkylarkSoutheastS-GM-WulingSichuan-Toyota3+?

Guangzhou-ToyotaChang’an-FordD-NissanGuangzhou-HyundaiGreatWallJianghuai6+3146＋3Multinationalsareallin跨国公司全部进入

Volkswagen:大众

SAICandFAW

GM:通用SAIC-GM,Wuling,Dongyue,Jinbei

Ford:福特

Chang’an,Nanjing,Jiangling

DaimlerChrysler:戴克

BAIC,Southeast Toyota:丰田

FAW,GAIC Honda:本田GAIC,Dongfeng

Renault/Nissan:雷诺-日产

Dongfeng

BMW:宝马BrillianceJinbei

PSA:标致雪铁龙

Dongfeng;Fiat:菲亚特

Nanjing Hyundai-Kia:现代-起亚BAIC,Dongfeng,GAIC

Suzuki:铃木Chang’an,Changhe;Mitsubishi:三菱Southeast

Isuzu:五十铃Qingling;

15 3＋？:FAW,Dongfeng,SAIC“三大＋？”

BAIC:北汽

DaimlerChrysler,Hyundai,Mitsubishi GAIC:广汽

Honda,Toyota,Dongfeng-NissanPassenger Chang’anGroup:长安

Ford,Suzuki Hafei/Changhe:哈飞/昌河

AviationIndustryGroup

JianghuaiAutoGroup江淮

Nanjing:南汽

Fiat,MGRover Southeast(Fujian)：东南Mitsubishi,ChinaMotors Brilliance:华晨BMW QinglingMotorGroup：庆铃Isuzu

163＋？DomesticInvestment

国内投资Chery:奇瑞

R&DCenter,EnginePlant,Export/JVGeely:吉利

R&DCenter,Engineplant,Export/JVBYD(Qinchuan):比亚迪

HK$254million/74%sharesGreatWall:

长城100,000unitscarassemblyplant

Jianghuai:江淮

lightcommercial,MPV,carLifan:力帆

1.6LcarZhongxing:中兴

SUVsandpickupsGonowAuto:吉奥

SUVsandpickupsLoncin:隆鑫

¥300million,bus/suv17 RealityandDefinition如何定义 Sedan轿车 Automobile汽车 Motorvehicle机动车 Consumers消费者

Familycar家庭轿车

Price:价格¥100,000,¥80,000,¥40,000,¥30,000

Sedanvshatchback三箱,两箱(CitroënZX,Xiali)

18Summary结论:

Eexistingandpotentiallargemarket

现实和潜在大市场Institutionalandcommercial公、商务车市场Consumermarket:消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车

Motorcycles,farmvehicles,mini-vehicles(not100%)Sedans轿车

Transitionfromacentralizedtoamarketsystem计划经济向市场经济过渡

19FutureTrendandDrivers未来市场的走向和影响因素20InteractionofThreeForces三股力量的博弈Government,WorldMarket,DomesticMarket政府、国际和国内市场StreamliningofCentralBureaucracies精简政府机构

ProtectionofPrivateProperty公有制和私有制

WTOImpact世贸组织

TheRiseofaConsumerMarket消费者市场的兴起

21DecliningAdministrativeControl行政干预逐渐弱化×MinistryofMachineryIndustry机械部×StateAdministrationofMachineryIndustry机械局×ChinaNationalAutomotiveIndustryCorp.中汽总×StateEconomicandTradeCommission经贸委FederationofMachineryIndustry机械工业联合会CAAM/SAE中国汽车工业协会/中国汽车工程学会22EmphasisontheRuleofLaw法制增强Type/ProductApproval认证Safety:compulsorytests,frontalcollision安全碰撞法规EmissionControl:EuroIII&II排放ConsumptionTax消费税ConsumerProtection:Recall消费者保护Fuelconsumptionlevel:然油消耗限制23AdministrativeControl行政干预依然存在

AutoIndustryDevelopmentPolicy产业政策（2004）Marketentry市场准入50:50EquityShareJVforOEMs股比限制TwoJVsforthesametypeofvehicles项目限制24Differentdepartmentalpriorities(部门交叉管理）SDRC:发改委Circular(investmentthreshold)

StateAssetsCommission

国资委LargeState-ownedcompanies

MOFCOM:商务部Investment,Sales,ExportQualityInspection，Supervision&Quarantine:质监局AdministrationofTaxation:税务局TaxationIndustryandCommerce:工商局BusinessLicensePublicSecurity:公安局VehicleLicense&RegistrationCommunications:交通部Maintenance&RepairMinistryofScience&Technology:科技部25Marketvs.CentralPlanning市场和计划经济

StateCouncilDRC国务院发展研究中心GovernmentShouldNotInterfere政府不宜干预

EqualAccessandFairCompetition公平竞争

26DrivenbyMarketForces市场的作用越来越大 Automobile:meansofproductionvsconsumergood

汽车：生产资料还是消费品 Public/InstitutionaltoPrivateOwnership

公有到私有 EconomicGrowth&RisingLivingStandards

经济发展和生活水平27

Overall

EconomicGrowth

经济持续增长

AverageGDPgrowth7-8%GDP增幅Activefiscalpolicy积极的财政Averageannualgrowthinoutput

10-15%

汽车年产量均增15％左右

28

InternationalPlayers

跨国公司MultinationalPresence跨国主机厂和供应商GovernmentRelationsandLobbying政府公关VehiclesforGovernmentConsumption政府采购Emissions,Safety,Technology安全、排放、技术

29WTOAccession世贸组织

Tariffdownto25%/10%in2006关税减削减

Quotaeliminated配额许可证取消Localizationrequirement取消国产化率

Globalsourcing全球采购Equityinvestmentlimit放宽投资额度限制Consumerexpectations:Pricereduction降价

30DomesticMarketForces国内市场变化

LocalInvestment地方政府投资

PrivateInvestment民营投资

Chery,Geely,Brilliance,BYD,Lifan,GW

MarketEntryOpen,withrestrictions准入并未封闭

Merger&Acquisitions兼并重组，借壳生产 BuyingintotheBigThree?民营参股三大?

31 CorporateDecisionMaking企业面临新决策 Protectivevs.CompetitiveAdvantage保护还是竞争优势 AdvancedManagementvs.Efficiency先进管理和效率

State-ownership&LaborCostAdvantage

国有和劳动力成本Low-CostManagement低成本管理ProductDevelopment:Institutional/Consumer

新产品开发对象

32MarketShareofCarmakers,2004-2006(%)

市场份额Make/Model 2001 2004 2005 Jan-Mar.‘06Shanghai-VW 31.9 15.8 9.9 9.8Shanghai-GM 7.7 9.9 10.4 9.3FAW-VW 16.5 13.4 9.6 8.8Beijing-Hyundai N/A 6.4 7.8 7.0CheryAutomobile 3.7 4.2 6.4 6.9Geely 2.9 4.55.2 6.1Tianjin-FAW-ToyotaN/A3.44.7 6.0Tianjin-FAW-Xiali 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.8Guangzhou-Honda 6.8 8.2 7.1 5.7Dongfeng-Nissan N/A 2.7 5.5 5.6Dongfeng-PSA 7.0 3.8 4.8 5.033TheRoadofElectronicAppliancesandMotorcycles家电和摩托车MotorcycleMarketshares: 1997 2005

摩托车市场份额 SOEs+JVs（国有和合资企业）:90% 40%

34RecentPolicies&Regulations近期的相关政策和法规35

AutoIndustryDevelopmentPolicy（2004）

产业政策50:50EquityShareJVforOEMs整车股比限制TwoJVsforthesametypeofvehicles项目限制

JVinitiatedM&As合资企业兼并重组国企Separationofproduction&Sales:Mazda3

生产和销售分离Entrancebarrier准入Supportof“largeautogroups”支持“大集团”36 ImportTariff进口关税

Quotaandlicenseeliminated许可和配额取消Wholevehicles:25%July1,2006整车25％Parts&components:10%July1,2006零部件10％Impact: high-end,luxurycarsasimports豪华车 Targetingthenewlyrich新富

Localproductionunlikely不会地产37 CBUCharacteristics整车特征(April1,2005)

ImportAdministrationofAutomotivePartsandComponentsHavingCharacteristicsofCBUs60%orhigherinvalue:25％tariff,July1,2006

超过整车价值60％，按整车征税

EU,US,Japan,Canada,Australia,Mexico:

“ViolationofWTOrulesonlocalization”

违背WTO地产规则China：”Counterimporttariffevasion”“打击逃避关税”

Likelysolution解决办法38

ExteriorIDMarks汽车外部标识

AdministrativeMethodsonExteriorIDMarksofAutomobileProducts,February2006今年二月实施Government:MadeinChina政府规范市场Corporate:Sales企业销售Consumer:Foreignvs.localbrands消费者心理39 ConsumptionTax,April1,2006消费税(%)

Sedan/MPV SUVEngine New Old Change Engine New OldChange<1.0L 3 3 0 <=1.0L 3 3 0>1.0L-=1.5L 3 5 -2 >1.0L-=1.5L 3 3 0>1.5L-=2.0L 5 5 0 >1.5L-=2.0L 5 3 2>2.0L-=2.2L 9 5 4 >2.0L-=2.2L 9 3 6>2.2L-=2.5L9 8 1 >2.2L-=2.5L 9 3 6>2.5L-=3.0L12 8 4 >2.5L-=3.0L 12 5 7>3.0L-=4.0L 15 8 7 >3.0L-=4.0L 15 5 10>4.0L 20 8 12 >4.0L 20 5 15Impact:影响40Farmvehiclespartofautomobiles

农用车变为汽车的一部分TheNoticeonStandardizingtheAdministrationofThree-WheelAutomobilesandLow-SpeedTrucks,June1,2006三轮汽车、低速卡车VIN：January1,2007汽车识别代号WMI:世界制造识别 a)minimumoutput3,000/500最低年产量 b)certification生产许可Applicationdeadline:December31,2006申请截至4142IndependentInno