司静波论文资料

基于WSR方法论的农业投资项目可行性研究可信度研究司静波张怡然（黑龙江省农科院，黑龙江哈尔滨150010东北农业大学，黑龙江哈尔滨150030）本文是黑龙江省博士后基金项目：黑龙江省农业产业化项目评估及项目后管理方法研究的阶段性研究成果。摘要：长期以来，我国农业投资项目的可行性分析和评估工作受到各种因素影响，可行性研究的可信度水平低下，已经严重影响了农业项目的投资效率，制约了农业经济的发展。本文借鉴WSR方法论，从真实性、科学性和可靠性三个角度深入分析可信度低下的根本原因，为寻求提高可行性研究可信度的对策探索崭新路径。关键词：WSR方法论可行性研究可信度真实性科学性可靠性可行性研究是考察项目技术上的先进性和适用性、经济上的盈利性和合理性、建设的可能性和可行性的一种科学分析方法，科学决策需要高可信度的可行性研究做基础。可行性研究的可信度是指根据一定的编制程序和内容，运用经济学理论和方法而编制出的项目可行性研究的真实性、科学性和可靠性所达到的可信程度。真实性是指可行性研究中所引据的基础数据资料要真实、准确；科学性是指可行性研究中依据的经济理论和方法要先进要成熟要适用，分析要全面要透彻；可靠性是指可行性研究要能经得起实践的检验，兼顾项目各方干系人的整体利益，尽可能做到研究结论与实践相统一。其中，真实性是可行性研究可信度的基础，科学性是可行性研究可信度的关键，可靠性是可行性研究可信度的归宿和落脚点，可靠性依靠真实性和科学性来实现，真实性和科学性依靠可靠性来检验。长期以来，我国农业投资项目的可行性分析和评估工作受到各种因素影响，可行性研究的可信度水平低下，已经严重影响了农业项目的投资效率，制约了农业经济的发展。理论界对这个问题的关注集中在可行性研究可信度影响因素的研究（如市场分析、技术选择、财务评价、国民经济评价和社会评价、风险分析等因素）和可行性研究可信度低下原因的分析（如职能、体制、机制、道德、环境、方法等方面），并由此提出提高可行性研究可信度的针对性措施。WSR是“物理(wuli)、事理(shili)、人理(renli)方法论”的简称，既是一种方法论，又是一种解决复杂问题的工具。借鉴WSR方法论，重新审视农业投资项目可行性研究中存在的问题，从物理、事理、人理的角度指导可行性研究工作，提高农业投资项目可行性研究的真实性、科学性和可靠性，实现科学决策，是崭新路径。一、WSR理论及与农业投资项目可行性研究各阶段的对应物理（WuLi)—事理(ShiLi)—人理(RenLi),简称WSR，是由我国学者顾基发和朱志昌提出的一种方法论,物理是指系统项目处理过程中人们面对的客观存在,是物质运动的规律；事理是指系统项目处理过程中人们面对的客观存在及其规律时介入的机制；人理是指系统项目处理过程中所有人们之间的相互关系及其变化过程。WSR的核心思想倡导处理复杂问题要从机能整体性出发,既要考虑对象物的方面(物理),又要考虑这些物如何被更好运用的事的方面(事理),还要必须考虑认识问题、处理问题和解决问题中人的方面(人理)。农业投资项目的决策过程，从总体上讲是物理、事理和人理统一的过程，物理过程是项目干系人各自从自身利益角度认识项目属性的过程，事理过程是项目干系人各自运用综合评价技术，量化评价的过程，人理是项目各干系方之间进行“沟通、协调”最终决策的过程。1.WSR理论的“物理”WSR理论的“物理”，即充分了解并正确认识可行性研究对象的最基本属性和特征,尽可能详尽、全面地收集有关的信息和原始数据,从而确定指标值,这是整个可行性研究的基础，是农业投资项目可行性研究初始阶段的主要任务。“物理”需要采取的技术属于战略性的，主要依靠可行性研究者自身的职业信念、经验知识、感性、知觉、洞察力、智慧及直觉判断。客观性、真实性是这一阶段的主要目标。2.WSR理论的“事理”WSR理论的“事理”，即按照特定的评价目标建立最能表征可行性研究对象属性的评价指标体系,确定指标的权值,选择合适的可行性研究方法,以便按照该方法所提供的过程和准则来评测可行性研究对象的过程，这是农业项目可行性研究的最重要阶段。“事理”需要采取的技术是属于战术性的，需要进行定量处理，所要用的也多是定量方法，或定量与定性相结合的方法。科学性、准确性是这一阶段的主要目标。3.WSR理论的“人理”WSR理论的“人理”，即协调领导者、可行性研究主体和可行性研究客体之间的关系,经过多方面权衡之后,给出最终的评价结果报告，这是农业项目可行性研究的最后阶段，“人理”也是贯穿整个农业投资项目可行性研究全过程的思想。可靠性、协调性是这一阶段的主要目标。物理-事理-人理的基本意义及与可行性研究的对应关系如下：物理-事理-人理的基本意义及与可行性研究的对应关系物理事理人理研究涵义客观世界内部机制人际关系回答问题是什么—功能分析怎么做—逻辑分析应当怎么做—人文分析使用工具自然科学系统科学管理科学管理科学行为科学社会科学研究准则真实、准确、合理、有效、可行合作、和谐、公平、灵活研究任务项目属性评价方法项目干系人研究目标真实性科学性可靠性

二、物理角度分析农业投资项目可行性研究的真实性物理角度分析农业项目可行性研究存在的问题，主要体现为对农业投资项目可行性研究的对象属性认识不足，可行性研究的真实性降低，导致可信度低下。这种认识不清包括两个层面：一是客观性认识不足，二是主观性调查不到位。一是客观性认识不足。目前在农业投资项目可行性研究中往往会有以下几种情况：在选择动态分析方法时没有充分考虑到农业项目投资期长、各年收益不稳定的因素，忽略农业投资项目受自然条件影响较大，各年收益可能严重不平衡的状况；由于农产品价格存在着工农业产品价格剪刀差,其价格与价值被扭曲,农业投资项目的主要收益转移到农业以外的部门，农业投资项目又大部分是具有社会公益性的项目,其分摊收益和无形效果的测算比较困难，可行性研究中对外部效益和外部费用考虑不充分；随着市场经济的快速发展,农业项目的内涵和外延有了很大的变化,其性质和内容形成多样化和模糊化的特点。例如,农产品最终产品的深加工和一体化以后及副业规模扩大后,农业投资项目已远远超出传统观念TheResearchoftheCredibilityofAgriculturalInvestmentProjectFeasibilityStudyBasedonWSRMethodologySi,JingboZhang,Yiran(HeilongjiangAcademyofAgriculturalSciences,150010;NortheastAgriculturalUniversity,150030）ThestudyresultsisthefundprojectbyHeilongjiangPostdoctoralSustentation:StudyonAgricultureIndustrializationProjectEvaluationandProjectManagementMethodinHeilongjiangProvince.Abstract:Foralongtime,therearevariousfactorsinfluencingthefeasibilityanalysisandevaluationoftheagriculturalinvestmentprojectsinourcountry,thelowlevelsofthereliabilityoffeasibilitystudyhasbeenseriouslyinfluencedtheefficiencyofinvestmentinagriculturalprojectsandconstrainedthedevelopmentoftheagriculturaleconomy.ThispaperreferencesWSRmethodology,fromthreepointofviewoftheauthenticity,validity,andcredibilityin-depthanalysisoftherootcausesoflowcredibility,itexploresanewpathforseekingmeasurestoimprovethecredibilityoffeasibilitystudy.KeyWords:WSRMethodologyFeasibilityStudyCredibilityAuthenticityValidityReliabilityProjectfeasibilitystudyisascientificanalysisthatistoinvestigatetheadvancementandapplicabilityoftechnology,economicprofitabilityandrationality,thepossibilityandfeasibilityofbuilding,scientificdecision-makingneedsthefeasibilitystudywhichhashighreliabilityasthebasis.Thecredibilityofthefeasibilitystudyispreparedaccordingtocertainproceduresandcontent,makeuseofthetheoryandmethodsofeconomytocompiletheauthenticity,validityandreliabilityoftheachieveddegreeofcredibilityofprojectfeasibilitystudy.Authenticityreferstothebasicdatawhichisquotedinfeasibilitystudyshouldbetrueandaccurate;sciencereferstothetheoryandmethodsofeconomywhicharebasedinfeasibilitystudyshouldbeadvanced,matureandapplicable,theanalysisshouldbecomprehensiveandthorough;reliabilityreferstothefeasibilitystudyshouldbeabletostandthetestofpractice,givingconsiderationtotheoverallinterestsoftheprojectstakeholders,andtheresearchfindingsaspossiblewithpractice.Amongthen,theauthenticityisthebasisofthecredibilityofthefeasibilitystudy,scienceisthekeytothecredibilityofthefeasibility,thereliabilityisthetemporarylodgingandhometothecredibilityofthefeasibility,thereliabilityreliesontheauthenticityandsciencetoachieve,theauthenticityandsciencerelyonthereliabilitytotest.Foralongtime,therearevariousfactorsinfluencingthefeasibilityanalysisandevaluationofagriculturalinvestmentprojectinChina,lowlevelofcredibilityofthefeasibilitystudyhasseriouslyaffectedtheefficiencyofagriculturalinvestmentprojectsandrestrictedthedevelopmentofagriculturaleconomy.Theoristsfocusedattentionontheissueofcredibilityofthefactorsinthefeasibilitystudy(suchasmarketanalysis,technologyselection,financialevaluation,economicevaluationandsocialevaluation,riskanalysisandotherfactors),andthelowcredibilityofthefeasibilitystudycauseanalysis(suchasfunctions,systems,mechanisms,ethics,environment,methodsandotheraspects),andthusproposethepertinencemeasuretoincreasethecredibilityoffeasibilitystudy.WSRisa"Wuli,Shili,RenliMethodology"forshort,itisamethodology,butalsoatooltosolvecomplexproblems.ReferenceWSRmethodology,re-examinetheproblemsinagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudy,fromphysical,sensible,peoplemanagementpointofviewtoguidethefeasibilitystudy,andenhancetheauthenticity,validityandreliabilityinagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudy,andachievescientificdecision-making,isanewpath.WSRtheoryandthecorrespondingtotheagriculturalinvestmentprojectsfeasibilitystudystagesandWSRtheoryWuli,Shili,Renli,WSRforshort,isamethodologythatbeproposedbyChinesescholarnamedGu,JifaandZhu,Zhichang,Wulireferstotheobjectiveexistencethatpeoplefacedintheprocessingprocedureofthesystemproject,isthelawofmaterialmovement;Shilireferstothesystemwhichisinvolvedintheobjectiveexistenceanditslawthatpeoplefacedintheprocessingprocedureofthesystemproject;Renlireferstoallinter-relationshipbetweenpeopleanditschangeprocessthatpeoplefacedintheprocessingprocedureofthesystemproject.ThecoreideaofWSRisadvocatingthatweshoulddisposecomplexissuesfromfunctionalintegrity,it'snecessarytoconsiderthematerialaspectsofanobject(wuli),butalsoconsiderhowtomakebetteruseofthesematerialsaspectsofthings(shili),butalsomustconsidertheaspectofhumaninunderstandingquestions,dealingwithproblemsandproblem-solving(renli).Generallyspeaking,thedecision-makingprocessofagriculturalinvestmentprojectsisaprocesswhichistheunityofWuli,Shili,Renli,Wuliprocessisaprocessthatprojectstakeholdersunderstandprojectattributefromthepointofviewoftheirowninterests,Shiliprocessisaprocessthatprojectstakeholdersusecomprehensiveevaluationtechnologytomakequantitativeevaluation,Renliisaprocessofthefinaldecision-makingwhichis"communicated,coordinated"betweenprojectstakeholders.1.1the"Wuli"ofWSRmethodologyThe"Wuli"ofWSRmethodology,thatisfullyandcorrectlyunderstandingthebasicattributesandcharacteristicsoftheobjectsoffeasibilitystudy,collectingtherelatedinformationandrawdataasdetailedandcomprehensiveaspossible,thusdeterminingtheindexvaluewhicharethebasisofthefeasibilitystudy,butalsothemaintasksintheinitialstageoftheagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudy.Thetechnologythat"wuli"needstotakeisstrategic,itmainlyrelyontheprofessionalbeliefs,experienceknowledge,sensitivity,perception,insight,wisdomandintuitionaljudgmentoftheresearchersoffeasibilitystudy.Objectivity,truthisthemainobjectiveinthisphase.1.2the"Shili"ofWSRmethodologyThe"Shili"ofWSRmethodologyisaprocessthataccordingtothespecificobjecttoestablishtheevaluationindexsystemwhichcanbesttorepresenttheattributeoftheobjectsofthefeasibilitystudy,determinetheweightsofindicators,selecttheappropriatemethodforfeasibilitystudy,andsoastoevaluatetheobjectsoffeasibilitystudyaccordingtotheprocessandcriteriawhichareprovidedbythemethod,itisthemostimportantstageoftheagriculturalprojectfeasibilitystudy.Thetechnologythat"Shili"needstotakeistactical,itrequiresaquantitativetreatment,themethoditusesthateitherthequantitativemethods,orthecombinationofquantitativeandqualitativemethods.Scientificandaccurateisthemainobjectiveinthisphase.1.3the"Renli"ofWSRmethodologyThe"Renli"ofWSRmethodology,thatistherelationshipamongcoordinatedleadership,objectoffeasibilitystudyandthesubjectoffeasibilitystudy,throughthevarioustrade-offs,thefinalevaluationresultsaregiveninthereport,itisthefinalstageoftheagriculturalprojectfeasibilitystudy."Renli"isalsothethinkingwhichisthroughoutthewholeprocessoftheagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudy.Reliability,coordinationisthemainobjectiveinthisphase.ThebasicmeaningoftheWuli-Shili-Renliandthecorrespondingrelationshipbetweenfeasibilitystudyandthemisasfollows:ThebasicmeaningoftheWuli-Shili-RenliandthecorrespondingrelationshipbetweenfeasibilitystudyandthemwulishilirenliThemeaningoftheresearchObjectiveworldInternalmechanisminterpersonalrelationshipAnswerthequestionswhat—functionanalysishow—logicanalysisHowtodo—humanityanalysisUsingtoolsNaturalscienceSystemscienceManagementscienceSystemscienceManagementscienceBehaviorscienceSocietyscienceResearchstandarsauthenticaccurate、reasonable、effective、feasiblecooperative、harmonious、affair、flexibleResearchtasksProjectattributeEvaluationmethodProjectstakeholderResearchtargetauthenticitysciencecredibilityAnalysisoftheauthenticityofagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyfromthepointofviewofphysicThemainreflectionsoftheanalysisoftheproblemsinagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyfromthepointofviewofphysicarethatthelackofrecognitionoftheobjectattributeofagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyandtheauthenticityoffeasibilitystudydecreased,thusresultinginthelowcredibility.Thisconfusionincludestwolevelsofunderstanding:First,lackofrecognitionofobjectivity,andsecond,subjectivesurveyisnotinplace.First,lackofrecognitionofobjectivity.Therearethefollowingsituationsinagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyatpresent:itdidnotfullytakeintoaccountthelongperiodandannualearningsinstabilityofagriculturalinvestment,andneglectthesituationthatthenaturalconditionshavegreatinfluenceonagriculturalinvestmentprojectandtheannualincomemaybesevereimbalance;asthereispricescissorsbetweenindustrialandagriculturalproductsinthepricesofagriculturalproducts,itspriceandvalueisdistorted,themainbenefitsofagriculturalinvestmentprojectstransferredtothesectoroftheoutsideofagriculture,themajorityofagriculturalinvestmentprojectsisasocialpublicwelfareproject,itisdifficulttomeasurethecontributionearningsandintangibleeffectsofagriculturalinvestmentprojects,thelackofrecognitionoftheexternalbenefitsandexternalcostsinfeasibilitystudy;withtherapiddevelopmentofmarketeconomy,theconnotationandextensionofagriculturalprojectshasgreatchanged,anditsnatureandcontenthaveformedthefeatureofdiversificationandblurring.Forexample,agriculturalinvestmentprojectsisfarbeyondthetraditionalconceptagriculturalprojectaftertheintegrationofthefurherprocessingofagriculturalfinalproductsandtheenlargedscaleofsideline.Agriculturalinvestmenthighlyemphasisetheadjustmentofagriculturalstructure,andpaysmoreattentiontothesustainabledevelopmentandthecombinationwiththehi-techachievements,andtheprojectswhichismarket-oriented,theagriculturalinvestmentprojecttendstobemorescaleandintensive.Itislackofin-depthstudyofthesefeaturesinfeasibilitystudy.Secondly,subjectivesurveyisnotinplace.Thedatashowedthatthemajorriskoffailureinnewproductdevelopmentandnewprojectscomesfrom63%ofthemarket,thekeytofinalsuccessinaninvestmentisthebreakthroughofthemarket,becauseofthis,statusandprospectsofoptimisticvaluationsmarketshavebecomemorecommonandobviousphenomenoninfeasibilitystudy.Agriculturecoversawiderange,itsbusinessunitsaredispersing,andcoupledwithloweducationalleveloffarmers,it'sdifficulttocollectthestatisticaldataofit,peoplecommonlyusethemethodsofaccordingtoinvestigationandexperienceestimationtomakeupinagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudy.Somemarketresearchesandforecastingsinagriculturalprojectareextensivelineandplaythemdown,peoplemixedwithwaterartificiallyandassumemarketconditionsforthepursuitoftheso-calledfeasibility.Forexample,lesspredictableandmoreinvestigationinthefactorsthattheexistingproductioncapacityandutilizationanddemandandsupplycapacityathomeandabroadorinsideandoutsideoftheprovince,andthepotentialproductioncapacityinconstructionproject;alsosomeprojectsdon'tmakedeeplyinvestigationandbackgroundanalysisonmarket,theychosethehighpricesdeliberatelyandusethehighsideofsalesvolume,highprices,lowinvestment,lowcostandsountruedatatosetintoaspecifiedformulatocalculateandanalysismechanicallythenobtainthehighyieldandprofit-taxationrateandotherfinancialindicators;someevencometothefeasibilitystudyconclusionswhichdon'tmakesenseandcan'twithstandscrutinyandcan'tstandthetestofpractice.Over-optimisticvaluationorimaginedmarketleadtotheresultthatcan'tnecessarilyguaranteethesuccessrateoftheinvestmentproject.3.AnalysisofthescienceofagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyfromthepointofviewofShili.ThemainreflectionsoftheanalysisoftheproblemsintheagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyfromthepointofviewofShiliarethattheinadequatechoiceoftheevaluationindex,andindexsystemisunreasonable,andtheinsufficientbasisforthefeasibilitystudy,whichleadtothelackofscientificinfeasibilitystudyandthenresultinlowreliability.Indicatorisusedtoreflecttheconceptsoftheobject'scharacteristics,attributes,contact,andmovement,butalsotowardreflectingstipulationofscale,range,ratio,extentandotheramount,inthedefinitionsofindicatorthemeasuremethodsoftheindicatorsaregenerallydefinedordescribedtheindicatorsasthecorrespondingformula.Infeasibilitystudy,weshouldaccordingtotheevaluationobjecttosettargetsfortheobjectsystem,andpayattentiontothelinksandcombinationsbetweenindicators,andmaketheindicatorsconciseandpractical.First,theagriculturalinvestmentprojectsfeasibilitystudychosethewrongtarget.ThefinanceofChinesegovernmentdoesn'thavethespecificandeffectiveassessmentmethodsforagriculturalinvestment,thelackofquantitativeevaluationindicators.Itisnotinfavouroftheproperandreasonablearrangementforfiscalinvestmentinagriculture.Accordingtotheirdecision-makingposition,projectinvestmentdecisionevaluationcanbedividedintothreeindicators:themainindicator(suchasnetpresentvalue,internalrateofreturn,etc.),secondaryindicator(suchasstaticinvestmentpaybackperiod,etc.)andsubsidiaryindicator(suchasinvestmentprofitetc.)Atpresent,onlythepaybackperiodandinvestmentprofitmargin,profittaxandothersecondary,subsidiaryindicatorsarecalculatedinthemanyagriculturalprojectsfeasibilitystudy.Infact,whenaconflictbetweentheconclusionofsimplepaybackperiodorinvestmentprofitratioandtheconclusionofthemainindicatorssuchasnetpresentvalue,internalrateofreturnandotherindicators,itshouldbesubjecttotheconclusionsofthemainindicators,astheseindicatorswiththeprojectitselfcontentattributes,cancontroltheinvestmenttosomeextent.Insomeagricultureinvestmentprojectssuchasfeasibilitystudyofindustries,theremaybeainconsistentresultsamongtheoverallproject,leadingenterprisesandfarmers,yetweareoftenbiasedtowardtheoveralleffectivenessofleadingenterprisesandoverallproject,ignoretheinterestsofbalanceandadjustmentbetweenenterprisesandfarmers,whichmakingbothgain,suchtheresultsoffinancialevaluationlosspartiality.Secondly,theinadequatedepthoftheagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudy.Thebasisofthefeasibilitystudyisthebasicreflectionforthedepthoffeasibilitystudy.Butsomeagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyreportdidnotgiveasufficientbasis.Forexample,thereisnobasisforthelong-termplanningofcountries,regionsandindustries,andnotaccordingtothestateindustrialpolicy,thereisnobasisfortheprojectproposalanditsapproval,theestimationofprojectinvestmentisnotbasedontheadvisorypriceinformationofmajorequipment.Thecommonpracticeininternationalisthatthefeasibilitystudyshouldbeabletoreachtheextentwhichcandeterminethescheme,butourcountrycannot.Manyagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyreportarelength,andhavingwaterandlesssubstance,andthesemakeitconvergenceinprojectproposal.Suchasmarketresearchandforecastingprojectssuchcontentisdevelopedintothegreatlengthsupplylistofpagesofurbanstatus,history,culturalinformation,geographicallocation,climaticcharacteristicsandtheprinciplesofgassupply,andthepaperhasgreatsupplylistofemptytalkandjargon,itisdifficulttofindtheresearchpointsandconclusionsfortheevaluationpeople.Althoughthestructureofsomefeasibilitystudyreportismorecomplete,andhascontentofthepartofboth,buttheyonlyattachimportancetotheintegrityofthetext,whileignoringthevalidityofcontent,andtheresearchisnotdeepandopaqueenough,anddonothaveclear-cutargument,andargumentsisinadequate,andthediscussionisnotindetail,andtheyusemorequalitativedescriptionsandlessquantitativecalculation.Forexample,indeterminingthescaleofproduction,onlytheamountdrawn,notthenumberoftheprinciplesandcalculationprocess,intheenergy-savingpartofprojectfuelandenergyconsumption,thefeasibilityisthesignificanceofagrossunderstatement,butthereisnospecificenergy-savingmeasuresandenergyindicators.Inaddition,thatpeopleignoretheanalysisofthelogicalrelationshipamongeachcomponentinthefeasibilitystudiesisalsoaproblemrevealedinmanyagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyreport,thewholereportispiledupbythenumerous,tedious,andmostlyuselessinformation,whoseeverypartslackofinherent,unifiedlogicalreasonandanalysis,anditignoresthesystematicityandthelogicalanalysissuchasreasons—results,conditions—purpose.Thirdly,thedeterminationofthemainbodyofprojectapplicationisunreasonableintheagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudy.Takeagriculturalindustrializationprojectwhichaccountsforalargeproportioninagriculturalinvestmentprojectsforanexample.Leadingcompaniesneedastablerawmaterialsupply,farmersneedastablemarketforproducts,itshouldformastablerelationshipofpurchaseandsaleandtheinterestscommunity,undertheconditionthatleadingenterprisesandfarmerscometoanagreementonvoluntary,equality,mutualbenefit.Yet,nowagriculturalindustrializationprojectstakeenterprisesasthemainbodyofdeclaration,farmersdon'thavetherighttoparticipatetheprojectandthechancetomonitorinthewholeprojectimplementation,Itkeepsalooseconnectiontoenterprises.Enterprisespaymoreattentiontotheprocessingandlessattentiontotheconstructionoffoundation,oneisthatprojectfundsareusedforotherpurposesthatleadtothedevelopmentofenterprise,buttheaimthatprojectssupportfarmersdoesnotcometrue.Onecaseisthatiftheexternalcapitaliseasilyobtained,enterpriseswillprefertothefinancialsupportfromdepartmentsratherthantheinnovationoftechnology,thedevelopmentofmarket,thereinforcementofmanagementandtheimprovementofcompetitiveness,projectstosupporttheothers,asaresult,enterpriseswillbeeliminatedbymarketbecauseofthelackofcompetitivenessorbecomeafinancialburden,finallyitcomestobealooserordoesnotobtaintheeconomicandsocialbenefits.AnalysisofthecredibilityofagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyfromthepointofviewofRenli.AnalysisoftheproblemsintheagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudyfromthepointofviewofRenli,theprojectcannottakeintoaccounttheoverallinterestsofstakeholders,poorcoordinationisthemainperformance,thelowreliabilityandcoordinationoffeasibilitystudyleadstothelowcredibility.Infeasibilitystudyactivities,therenlifactorsreflectinthreeaspects:firstistomeetthewillingnessofleadership;thesecondistocoordinatetherelationshipamongleader,evaluator,andevaluationofobjects;thethirdisacomprehensiveevaluationofsubjectivejudgmentsofdifferentexpertsinthepanel.First,rightofcountry-levelagriculturalinvestmentprojectmanagementisover-centralizedunderthecurrentmanagementsystem,itintegratesanumberofrightssuchasdecision-makingrights,managementrights,distributionrights,organizationright,budgetandfinalaccountsrights,therightoffinalacceptanceoftheproject,theuserightsoffund.Mostoftheagriculturalinvestmentprojectfeasibilitystudymethodsarebasedonthebasisofleader's(iedecisionmakers)preference,andthemethodsthathaveastrongsocialcharacterandoftenwith"sexualorientation",andthe"scientific"ofmethodareoftensubjectto"oriented",andevendidnotfullyconsidertheoverallinterestsofthevarioussubjectsbecauseoftheimpactoftheinterestsofdriversandadministrativeintervention,whichwillsurelyleadtothedamageofsomegroupaftertheimplementationofagriculturalinvestmentproject.Secondisthatalthoughpeopleestablishtheexpertassessmentschemeinthephaseofagriculturalinvestmentprojectsassessment,buttheexpertassessmentdon'tplayitsdueroleintheconditionthattheexecutiveconsciousnessdecision-makingispopularandthedecision-makingprocessisopaque,commentswithouttrialiswidespread.Projectevaluationgroup,theprojectfeasibilitystudyevaluatorsistoensurefairnessguarantee.Therearemanyprojectstakeholdersinagriculturalinvestmentproject,anditsfeasibilitystudyactivitiesisaprocesswhichisparticipatedbythekeyprojectstakeholders,aseachstakeholderhasdifferentknowledgebackground,differentpositionsanddifferentinterests,thesewillleadtothattheywillhavedifferentviewsandfeelingstoasameissue,asamegoalorasameprogram.Thedecision-makingofagriculturalinvestmentprojectsisnotonlyneedingsciencebutneedingart,anditneedsthattherelationshipamongleaders,evaluatorsandevaluationobjectsiscoordinative,itneedsconsidertheoverallopinionsofthepanel,andconsidertheoverallinterestsofeachstakeholdersofprojectsubject,andconsiderthepsychologicalfactors,knowledgebackground,workingexperience,andconfidenceonsocialandpolitical,economicinformation,professionalcomplementaryandprofessionalethicsoffeasibilitystudysubject.Theexpertevaluationonlytalksaboutthefavorableconditionsbutavoidtheunfavorablefactors,thesituationofthosewholikestovoteforapproval,andcoverupthecontradictionsandrisks,anddoresearchforthe"feasibility",andreportonlythegoodbutnotthebadwillmisleadinvestmentdecisions.Thirdisthattherearedeviationsinthelogicalthinkingoffeasibilitystudy,someagriculturalinvestmentprojectsonlydoprojects"possible"conclusion,don’tdo"unviable"argument.Feasibilitystudydoesnotfocusonsensitiveissuesandriskfactorsanalysis,anditneglectsthecharacteristicsthatagriculturalinvestmentprojectsinfluencedbythenaturalfactors,anditneglectsthefactthatagriculturalinvestmentprojectsdependonthemarket,andtheanalysisofprojectsensitivityandriskfactorsisofteninadequate,andevenunabletofindthesensitivityfactors,orlackoftheanalysisofriskfactor.Thus,theefficiencydropsdrasticallyanditwillappearsthesituationthatcontradictionbetweensomeindividualfeasibilitystudyanddemonstrationprocess.whentheprojectwhichismakingdecisionaccordingtheseisatriskortheriskfactorschanging.