全球风能大会-关键任务：为1.5°C的世界构建全球风能供应链（英）

MISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBAL

WINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAIN

FORA1.5°CWORLD

GWEC

GLOBALWINDENERGYCOUNCIL

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GWEC

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Citation

GlobalWindEnergyCouncilandBoston

ConsultingGroup(2023),MissionCritical:

Buildingtheglobalwindenergysupplychainfora1.5°Cworld.

Acknowledgments

ThisreportwasproducedbytheGlobalWindEnergyCouncilandco-authoredbytheGlobalWindEnergyCouncilandBostonConsultingGroup.Theleadauthorsofthisreportwere

FengZhao,JoyceLeeandBenBackwell(GWEC)andJensGjerrildandLarsHolm(BCG).

TheauthorswishtothankCarstenBrinck,ShashiBarlaandChristosChronopoulos(Brinckmann),HaoranLi,JieyingHeand

GuiyongYu(ChineseWindEnergyAssociation),MafSmith(LumenEnergy&Environment)andJianrongZhou(ELKEM)forprovidingdatafor

selectedcomponentsandmaterials,aswellasMatthewWatkins,AislingHubert,ChenfeiWang(CRU),ShashiBarla(Brinckmann)andDaanDeJonge(BenchmarkMineralIntelligence)for

providingadditionalcontentforselectedmaterials.

Published

1December2023

Design

Lemonbox

www.lemonbox.co.uk

TableofContents

Foreword

2

ExecutiveSummary

3

Chapter1:GlobalStatusandOutlookoftheWindSupplyChain10

Globalfindingsonthewindsupplychain

11

Lookingaheadto2030

16

Chapter2:DeepDiveintotheGlobalWindSupplyChain22

TurbineNacelles

25

KeyComponents

30

KeyMaterials

46

OffshoreWindBalanceofPlant

56

OffshoreWindEnablers

65

Chapter3:RecommendationstoSecuretheWindSupplyChain73

Appendix

78

GWEC|BCG|MISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD1

Foreword

BenBackwell

CEO,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil

Theworldtodayisconfrontinga

seriesofmacrochallenges,amongthemclimatechange,thelackof

energysecurityandenergy

access,andrisinginflationandunsustainabledebtlevels,

particularlyindeveloping

economies.Scalinguprenewableenergywillgoalongwayto

mitigatethesechallenges.Ifwellmanaged,theglobalenergy

transitioncanbringprosperity,justiceandresilienceto

communitiesaroundtheworld.

Tosupportthetransition,politicalmomentumisgatheringaroundatargetoftriplingglobalrenewableenergycapacityby2030,whichwouldtranslatetogrowingthe

installedwindfleetbyroughly3timestoreachatleast2.7TWbytheendofthedecade.Achievingthisleapinwindcapacitywill

requirearapidandsustained

ramp-upininvestmentinordertobuildastrongerglobalsupply

chainforthewindindustry.

Thisisawatershedmomentfor

gettingtradeandindustrialpolicyinshapefora1.5°Cworld.The

windsupplychainishighlyglobalinnature,withastrongfocusin

Chinagivenitssizeabledomesticdemand.ButfromEuropetothe

Americas,thesupplychainin

somekeyregionsoftheworldhas

beeninsufficientinrecentyears,andhasseensetbacksinitsabilitytomakeforward-looking

investmentsinsupply,dueto

insufficientmarketvolumecausedbypolicyandregulatory

challenges.

Thisreport,deliveredbyGWECinpartnershipwithBostonConsulting

Group,isthefirstcomprehensivestudyofitskindwhichperformsadeepdiveacrossthewindenergysupplychain,fromnacellesto

componentstomaterialsto

offshorewindbalanceofplant.Thereportassessestheimplications

forenergytransitionpolicyacrossfourfuturemacroeconomic

scenariosby2030,andthe

broaderwindsupplychain

landscape,marketsizeand

returns.

Ouranalysisreflectskeyactionareasforpolicymakersand

industry,andoutlinestheneedforstrongercollaborationto

ensurethewindsupplychainisinplaceforanetzerofuture.

Aboveall,actionmustfocuson:

scalingupvolumeand

predictabilityinthewindpipeline;industrialisingthewindsectorwithmoreglobalandmodulardesigns;balancingregionalsupplychain

securitywithcontinuedand

enhancedglobalinterlinkages,

ensuringmarketscanprovide

clearandbankabledemand

signals;shapingtradepolicyto

buildcompetitiveindustries,ratherthanpursuingdefensive

mechanisms;andundertakingpowermarketreformtoboost

investmentcertaintyandreflectthebroadersocietalbenefitsofwindpower.

Cleantechnologymanufacturingisoneofthemostpressing

challengesandopportunitiesof

thecurrentclimateandenergy

debate.Weneedcollaborative

thinkingandactionontrade,

financeandpolicymeasuresthatcaneffectivelyrespondtothe

climateemergency.Workingwithkeypartners,governmentsandtheindustry,GWECwillcontinue

buildingupontheworkcontainedinthisreporttosecuretheglobalwindsupplychainfora1.5°C

pathway.

2GWEC.NET

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

GWEC|ECFSUPPLYCHAINREPORT2023

ExecutiveSummary

MissionCritical:Buildingtheglobalwindenergysupplychainfora1.5°Cworld

Theglobalwindenergysupply

chainisexposedtomanyinternal

andexternalchallengingfactors.

Thiscomesatatimewhenpoliticalmomentumisgrowingtosetatargetforthetriplingofrenewableenergycapacityby2030,tosupportthe

deliveryof1.5°Cscenarioswhich

seewindenergyasthebackboneofafuturepowersystem.

Internationalenergyagenciesandnetzeroroadmapsagreeonthe

primaryroleofwindenergyontheroadtonetzero.IRENA’sWorld

EnergyTransitionsOutlookforesees3,040GWcumulativeonshorewindby2030and494GWofoffshore

windby2030,orabout3.5TWof

totalwindinstalledby2030.1The

IEA’sNetZeroby2050Scenario

callsfor2.75TWofcumulativewindinstallationsin2030,with320GW

installedin2030alone.2Thiswouldrequiretoday’sglobalinstalledwindfleettoscaleupby3-3.5timesoverthenext7yearsto2030.

deliverit,isstilllaggingfarbehindtheselevels.By2030,theGlobal

WindEnergyCouncil(GWEC)

forecaststhatwewillreachjustmorethan2TWofinstalledwindcapacityworldwide,leavingasizeablegapof650-1,500GWbetweengrowth

undercurrentpoliciesanda1.5°Cpathway.3

Thisreportoutlinesthestatusoftheglobalwindsupplychainunder

business-as-usual(BAU)andnetzeroscenariosforgrowthto2030,

investigatesfuturemacro

geopoliticalandeconomicoutlooksimpactingthesupplychain,and

presentstheprioritiesforindustry

andpolicymakerstoputtheindustrybackontracktodeliveronglobal

decarbonisationgoals.

Volatilepolicyandmarketdemandhaveledtoscalinghesitancy,under-

intdustrialisationand

localisationpressures

Thewindindustryisincreasingly

technologicalinnovations.These

factorshavefuelleda‘racetothe

bottom’approachtocostscombinedwitha‘racetothetop’thinkingon

turbinesize,leadingtogrowingtechnicalriskandalowlevelofserialproduction.

FromEuropetotheAmericas,supplychaininvestmentinsomeofthe

world’skeyregionshasbeen

insufficientinrecentyears,mainly

duetostop-startgovernment

policies,permittingbottlenecksandalackofclarityandregularcadencefortenders.Marketdesignand

policyframeworksoverlyfocusedonpowercosthaveunintentionallyledtorazor-thinornegativemargins

whilefailingtoaccountforhigher

financingandmaterialcosts,makinginvestmentinsupplychainsunviable.

InChina,India,EuropeandtheUS

–hometoexistingproductionhubsforthewindsupplychain–

governmentsareaimingtoincreasemanufacturingcapacityaspartof

nationalindustrialstrategy.Thisis

alsoreflectiveoftheanticipated

growthofwinddeploymentintheirhomemarketsandthewiderAPAC,EuropeandAmericasregions.

Increasingly,policymakershave

focusedonensuringresilienceatthenationallevelnotsimplyintermsofpowerflows,butalsointheabilitytoexpandgeneratingandproductioncapacity.

Fourbroaderchallengesimpactingglobalwindsupplychainsare

exploredinthisreport:

.Marketvolumeandpowerpricevolatilityisincreasinginmanymarkets.Failedauctions,projectcancellations,inflationaryimpactsonsupplychaincomponents,

shippingandlogistics–aswellastherisingcostofcapital–areallimpactingtheinvestmentcaseforwindenergy.

.Policysignalsarepreventingtheindustryfromadjustingand

scalingproductioncapacity.

Supplychainactorsinmanyareasoftheworldhavebeenrightly

hesitanttoadjusttheircapacity

downwardsgiventheanticipateduptickinwinddemand–agrowth

However,deploymentofwind

energy,andthemanufacturingandproductioncapacityrequiredto

experiencinghighdemand-sidevolatility,hesitationtowardsscalingonthesupplierside,andrapid

1.IRENA,WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook:1.5°CPathway,2023.

2.IEA,NetZeroRoadmap:Aglobalpathwaytokeepthe1.5°Cgoalinreach-2023Update,2023.3.GWEC,GlobalWindReport,2023.

4GWEC.NET

OnlytheOpenDoorscenarioissufficientfornetzero;theIncreasedBarriersscenarioismostlikelytomaterialiseandfalls650GWshort

TWinstalledwind

3

2

1

0

Econ.DownturnGlobalEscalation

OpenDoorIncr.Barriers

IB,EDandGEresultin<=2TW2030outcome

2030

2020

2010

Note:Interpolated2024-2030forecasts,assuminghigherdemandcanhaveimpactoninstallationsfrom2025onwards.

Source:GWEC,IEANetZeroscenario(releasedSeptember2023),BCGanalysis

thatisdesperatelyneededfromaclimateperspective.Meanwhile,localcontentandindustrial

policiesarepreventing

consolidationinsomemarketslikeChina,whichwouldallowfora

moreefficientsupplychain.

MaintainingthisovercapacityisputtingtremendouspressureontheP&Lofwindindustryplayers.

.Theindustryishitbyarapid

innovationcurse.Theindustryhasreachedastagewhere

ever-largerturbinesare

specialisedforspecificmarkets

butlesssuitedtotheglobal

market.Atthesametime,thecoreindustrychallengescreatedbytherapidincreaseinturbinesizesarebecomingincreasinglyevident,

includingashortenedproductdevelopmentlifecyclethatcanleadtodefectsstemmingfrom

untestednewtechnology

deployments,largeR&DspendforOEMsthattheyhavenotbeen

abletorecuperate,andalackofindustrystandardisationpushingupcosts.

.Afocusonresilienceandpoliticalpressurearoundjobcreation

makesregulatorspushfor

localisation.Theenergycrisisof

2021madeenergyresilienceacorepoliticaltheme,placingthefocusonenergysupply.Sincethen,the

resilienceagendahasexpandedtoencompasssupplychainsand

industry.Thishaspromptedvaryingindustrialstrategiesfromnewwindmarkets,countries/regionswitha

fragmentedsupplychainfootprintandcountrieswithanat-scale

supplychain.

Thesefactorshaveconvergedto

maketheoutlookforglobalwind

supplychainschallenging–butonethatcanbegreatlyimproved.

Thefutureoutlookforwind

supplychainsisuncertainandlikelytobecomemore

challenging

Lookingtothefuture,thereare

differentelementsthatcanimpacttheoutlookfortheglobalwind

supplychain.Weforeseefour

scenarios:

ExecutiveSummary

1)OpenDoor,withgrowingregional

collaborationonbothsupplyand

demand.

2)IncreasedBarriers,where

marketsincreasetradebarriers

andturntheirattentionto

domesticinvestment.

3)EconomicDownturn,where

investmentsdryupandattention

focusestowardslow-costrather

thanlow-emissionstechnology.

4)GlobalEscalation,where

increasingcross-borderconflict

reducestradeandshiftsthefocus

fromdecarbonisationtowards

ensuringaccesstoenergy.

AnOpenDoorscenariowouldhave

thehighestnet-positiveclimateand

windindustryimpact,withwind

growthsufficientforreachinganet

zeropathway.However,wecurrently

seeahigherlikelihoodforthe

IncreasedBarriersscenarioto

materialise.Undercurrentpolicies,

wearelikelytoinstalljustmorethan

2TWofglobalwindcapacityby

2030,whichmeansaroughly650

GWshortfallfroma1.5°Cpathway.4

Thiscurrentgrowthtrajectoryisin

linewiththeIncreasedBarriers

scenario,andreflectsalow-demand

4.ComparingGWEC’sBAUoutlook(GlobalWind

Report2023)toIEA’sNetZeroby2050scenario(2023).

GWEC|BCG|MISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD5

ExecutiveSummary

pictureinEuropeandotherkey

regionsthatprovidesinsufficient

signalsforthesupplychaintoscale.

Itisalsolikelythatelementsofthe

othertwoscenarios,Economic

DownturnandGlobalEscalation,willresonateinglobalmarketstosomeextent.Thebodyofthisreport

detailshoweachscenariowould

impacttheglobalwindsupplychain.

Inthecurrentmacroenvironment,thewindindustrymustbereadyto

navigatethesescenariosandprepareforgrowth,whileatthesametime

guardingitselfagainsttheadverse

effectsofaneconomicdownturnandescalationofglobaltradetensions.

Thewindsupplychainmust

addressspecificbottlenecks

Currentsupplychainsonlyhave

enoughcapacitytodeliveron

growthscenariosthatfallshortofnetzero.Toallowtheindustrytoachievethenecessary2.75TWofinstalled

capacityby2030,supplychains

mustscaleacrossallactivitiesandmarkets.Itisessentialtodirectly

addressthekeychallengeswithin

thewindsupplychain,ortheywillposelikelybottlenecksbefore2030.

.Thewindsupplychainis

currentlyhighlyglobalised,withastrongfocusinChina.China

representsapproximately64%ofglobalvalueandanexpected58%shareofplannednear-term

(2023–2025)globalwind

installations.5Concentrationis

strongestforrareearthelementrefiningandthemanufacturingofgearboxes,converters,castingsandgenerators,forwhichtherestoftheworldisheavilydependentoncontinuedimports.ThereareclearsignalsthatChinaintendstokeepgrowingitsroleasthe

leadingcomponentmanufacturerfortheglobalwindindustry,andfurtherextenditsinvolvementtoprovidingfinishedwindturbinestointernationalmarkets.

.Miningforthemostimportantrawmaterialssuchasiron,zincandcopperisheavily

centralisedinahandfulof

countries,whiletherefiningof

criticalrareearthmineralsfor

windturbinepermanentmagnetsishandledalmostexclusivelybyChina.Thenaturalresourcesandrefiningcapacityforthese

materialsareplentiful,buttheirheavycentralisationmakestraderestrictionsamajorriskfortheglobalindustry.

.Whileconcentrationriskin

ChinaisnotashighinthewindindustryasitisinthesolarPV

industry,6concentrationof

componentmanufacturingisa

significantconcernduetoa

historicaltendencyinEurope–

andtoanevenhigherextentintheUS–tooutsourcegearbox,

converterandgenerator

manufacturing.Forresilientwindscaling,weneedtoseeeffortstoensurelocalsuppliesofthese

components.Europemustatleastdoubleitsexistingcapacityby

2030,whiletheUSneedsto

establishlocalindustriesfrom

scratchtomeetdomesticdemand.

.Nacelleassemblycapacitywillbeinsufficientinallregions

exceptChinaandIndia,withthethinmarginscurrently

experiencedintheindustry

deterringthenecessarycapacityexpansion.Theunderlying

challengesthreateningthe

profitabilityoffirst-linesuppliersmustbeaddressedtoensure

sufficientcapacity,especiallyforoffshorewind.

Ifwearetoensureasufficientlylargeandstabledemandforanetzero

future,deliveredatahighly

competitivecost,industryandpolicymakersmustactively

collaborateonimmediateaction.Sixkeyrecommendationsforactiontosecuretheglobalwindenergy

supplychainfora1.5°Carelistedbelow:

Recommendation1:Address

basicbarrierstowindindustrygrowthinland,gridsand

permittingtoincreasevolumeandpredictability

Partsofthesupplychainarenowloss-makingandunabletocommittofutureproductioncapacity,

largelyduetopolicyand

regulatorybarriersthatleadto

heighteneduncertaintyforprojectinvestments.Thesebarriers

includeoverlycomplexpermittingprocedures,gridbottlenecksandimpracticalpricingsignalsat

auction.Inmanyplaces,policy

andfinancingenvironmentsare

notfitforpurposefora1.5°C

pathwaythatculminatesinwindgeneratingone-fifthoftheworld’selectricityby2030andone-thirdofelectricityby2050.7

Asakeyenergyandpolitical

5.Value-addbasedonestimatedshareofmining,refining,manufacturing,assemblyandserviceswithcalculationdone

basedonactivitylocation.Installationoutlookcovering2023-2025isfromGWEC’swindgrowthforecast(Q22023Outlook).6.Chinahasmorethan80%shareofallkeysolarpanelmanufacturingstages,andmanufacturingforcomponentslike

polysiliconandwafersissettoriseto95%inthenextfewyears,accordingtotheIEA.See:IEA,SolarPVGlobalSupplyChains,2022.

7.IRENA,WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook:1.5°CPathway,2023.

6GWEC.NET

Timetoaction**

***

-----------------

ExecutiveSummary

Criticalmaterials

Assembly

Keycomponents

Theme

Offshorewindenablers

SubjectRareEarths*SteelPlate*CopperConcreteGearboxes*Generators*Blades*Cors*Castings*Towers*Foundations*Cables*InnPorts*Workforce

Globallevelcriticality

Europe

NorthAmerica

2023***

2023***

2024

2023

2024

2024

2024

2023

2024

2023

2024

2023

2024

2023

2025

2023

2025

2023

2025

2023

2025

2023

2023

2023

2025

2025

2023

2023

2023

2023

-

-

-

-

-

-

China

Generalavailabilityofneededmaterialsatthegloballevel,withcoppermining/refiningandconcrete

productionavailableforallmajorregions

Majorcentralisationforrefiningofrareearth

materials,withclosetonocapacityoutsideofChinatoday.Firstalternaterefineriesexpectedtobereadyby2028

Carbonfiberproductioncurrentlyexperiencing

undercapacity;majorcapacityexpansionhasbeenannouncedinparticularinChina,withEuropeandNorthAmericalikelybecomingreliantuponimports

Offshorewindneedstoscalebothportcapacityandwindturbineinstallationvessels

withsufficientlylargecranecapacity

UScriticallylacksvesselsandportswhileannounced

expansionplansandordersinothermarketscan

addressneedto2030;anycancellationswillposerisks

Onshorechallengeexpectedonlyif

tradeexportsfromIndia/Chinaarerestricted

Offshoreassemblyrisksundersupplyasuncertain

industryoutlookmayleadto

plantcancellations

Riskofmanufacturingbottlenecksbefore2030formultiplecomponentsatregionallevel,

inparticulargearboxes,generators,bladesaswellasoffshorewindsizecompatible

metalcastings,towersandfoundations

Keyfindings

Strongcentralisationforsomekeycomponents,especiallygearboxesandcastings.

NorthAmericaisgenerallyfullydependentonimportedcomponentsandisalready

todayexperiencingundersupplyofespeciallycomponentsforoffshorewindincluding

offshoretowers,foundationsandsubseacables

Supplychainswillgenerallybenefitfrombuildingoutregionalmanufacturinghubsto

ensuremoreresilientaccesstoneededcomponentswhileensuringcontinuedtradeand

globalinterlinkagestoenableflexibilityandaddressdemandvolatility

Addressbasicbarrierstowindindustrygrowthinland,gridsandpermittingtoincreasevolumeandpredictability

Thewindindustrymuststandardiseandindustrialise

Regionalisationwillbeneededtosupportgrowthandresilience,whilemaintainingaglobalisedsupplychain

Themarketmustprovideclearandbankabledemandsignals

Recommendations

Tradepolicyshouldbuildcompetitiveindustries,notpushhighercostsontoendusers

Fundamentalreformofthepowermarketunderpinsfurtherwindgrowth

Immediateglobalbottleneck

Noglobalbottleneckrisk

*Deepdiveanalysisprovided**Timetoactiondenotestimewhennewcapacityconstructionmustbestartedtoavoidbottlenecksineachregionwithouttrade

***Workforcewithmajorchallenges,addressedinGWEC&GWO:GlobalWindWorkforceOutlook2023-2027

GWEC|BCG|MISSIONCRITICAL:BUILDINGTHEGLOBALWINDENERGYSUPPLYCHAINFORA1.5°CWORLD7

Industrydemandhasinpastbeenvolatile,drivenbyphaseinandphaseoutofsupportschemes

VolatilityinducedbymacroeventssuchassupplychainbottlenecksthroughCOVIDandinflationandraw

materialpricesdrivenbythewaronUkraine

Developerscancelingprojectsdespitealreadysecuredofftakecontracts

Increasingmarketvolatility

Policysignalsholdback

capacityadjustments

ManycompaniesintheWestareunabletomakedownwardscapacityadjustmentsgiventheanticipatedstep-upofwind

demandtomeetclimatetargets,whilecost-cuttingexercisesandchronicunderinvestmenthasmadesupplychainscale-up

challenging

InothermarketslikeChina,political-industrialinterestsarepreventingconsolidationwhichcouldalleviateinefficiencies

Thesesituationsfosterprofitabilitychallengesforsupplychaincompanies

Curseofrapidinnovation

RaceforlargerWTGshasleftinsufficienttimefor

thoroughtesting,resultinginserialdefectsinthefieldDevelopmentcostshasnotbeenrecuperatedduetoshortenedproductlifecycles

Innovationoncomponentandsystemlevelhasnot

allowedforindustrialisationofexistingtechnologies

ExecutiveSummary

priority,thewindenergyindustry

mustworkwithgovernmentandcivilsocietytourgentlyaddresspolicy

andregulatorybarriers,inordertohelpimproveitsoutlook.

Recommendation2:Thewindindustrymuststandardiseandindustrialise

Thewindsectormustindustrialiseandscale,withdesignsbecomingglobalandmodular.Toachievethis,turbineplatformgrowthwillneedtoslowdowntowards2030tothe

extentneededtoavoidserial

damagesinthefield,ensuringthat

OEMscancapitaliseontheirR&Dinvestmentswhileallowingforthesupplychaintouseequipmentformorethanafewyearsandachieveeconomiesofscale.

Recommendation3:

Regionalisationwillbeneededtosupportgrowthand

resilience,whilemaintainingaglobalisedsupplychain

Withagrowingpushtowards

diversification,reshoringand

regionalisation,theindustrywill

profitfrombuildingoutregionalsupplyhubstoprovidealternative

sourcesforthematerialsand

componentsneededtodeploy

additionalwindcapacity.Butthis

mustbeaccompaniedbymeasurestokeeptradeflowingwithinand

betweenregions,supporting

individualnationsinenhancingtheircapacitytodeliveratscale,ensuringflexibleaccesstoneededmaterials,componentsandservices,and

provid