印度国际经济关系研究委员会-2030年印度农产品供需展望（英）

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030

NABARDResearchStudyNo.40

ProspectsofIndia’s

DemandandSupplyforAgricultural

Commoditiestowards2030

SHYMAJOSE

ASHOKGULATI

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030

Authors’Affiliations

1.ShymaJose,ResearchFellow,IndianCouncilforResearchonInternationalEconomicRelations,NewDelhi

2.AshokGulati,DistinguishedProfessor,IndianCouncilforResearchonInternationalEconomicRelations,NewDelhi

ISBN:

©2023

Copyright:NABARDandICRIER

CoverpagedesignedbyRahulArora,ICRIER

Disclaimer:

Opinionsandrecommendationsinthereportareexclusivelyoftheauthor(s)andnotofanyotherindividualorinstitutionincludingICRIER.Thisreporthasbeenpreparedingoodfaithonthebasisofinformationavailableatthedateofpublication.Allinteractionsandtransactionswithindustrysponsorsandtheirrepresentativeshavebeentransparentandconductedinanopen,honest,andindependentmannerasenshrinedinICRIERMemorandumofAssociation.ICRIERdoesnotacceptanycorporatefundingthatcomeswithamandatedresearchareawhichisnotinlinewithICRIER’sresearchagenda.ThecorporatefundingofanICRIERactivitydoesnot,inanyway,implyICRIER’s

endorsementoftheviewsofthesponsoringorganizationoritsproductsorpolicies.ICRIERdoesnotconductresearchthatisfocusedonanyspecificproductorserviceprovidedbythecorporatesponsor.

Thecontentsofthispublicationcanbeusedforresearchandacademicpurposesonlywithduepermissionandacknowledgment.Theyshouldnotbeusedforcommercialpurposes.NABARDdoesnotholdanyresponsibilityforthefactsandfigurescontainedinthebook.TheviewsareoftheauthorsaloneandshouldnotbepurportedtobethatofNABARD.

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030

CONTENTS

ListofFiguresandTables ii

AbbreviationsUsed iii

Acknowledgements iv

Foreword v

Preface vi

Abstract ix

ExecutiveSummary x

Introduction 1

ChangingconsumptionpatterninIndia 3

ReviewofLiterature 6

Methodologyforforecastingandvalidatingdemandandsupplyofagricultural

commodities 11

Validationofdemandforecastsbypaststudies 17

DemandProjectionsofAgriculturalCommoditiesupto2030-31 21

SupplyprojectionsofAgriculturalCommoditiesupto2030-31 32

SummaryandPolicyRecommendations 40

References 46

Annexure1 48

Annexure2 52

Annexure3 53

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|ii

LISTOFFIGURESANDTABLES

Figures

Figure1:Trendinthepercapitaconsumptionoffoodcommodities(cereal&non-cereal)inIndia

4

Figure2:Break-uppercapitaperdayintakeofcaloriesandproteinsbyfoodgroupinIndia 4

Figure3:Actualandpredictedabsorptionofcerealsandnon-cerealcommodities(2000-01to

2019-20)(usingKumaretal.(2011)Elasticities) 24

Figure4:Actualandpredictedabsorptionofcerealsandnon-cerealcommodities(2000-01to

2019-20)(usingelasticitiesestimatedbyWGreport(2018)oftheNitiAayog) 25

Figure5:Actual&predictedsupplyofcerealsandnon-cerealcommodities(2000-01to2019-20)

37

Tables

Table1:Methodology&assumptionsforfooddemandprojectionsin2020bydifferentstudies13

Table2:Assumptionofelasticitiesbydifferentauthors 16

Table3:Actualabsorptionofselectagriculturalcommoditiesin2019-20 17

Table4:Differencebetweenactualabsorptionandpredictedestimatesofcerealsbydifferent

studies(inmilliontonnes) 20

Table5:Differencebetweenactualabsorptionandpredictedestimatesfornon-cerealsby

differentstudies(inmilliontonnes) 22

Table6:R2andRootMeanSquareError(RMSE)(2000-01to2019-20) 26

Table7:Predicteddemandforrice,wheat,coarsecereals,cereals,pulsesandfoodgrainsfrom

2020-21to2030-31(usingKumaretal.(2011)elasticities)(Inmilliontonnes) 28

Table8:Predicteddemandforoilseeds,sugar,fruits,vegetables,andmeatfrom2020-21to

2030-31(usingKumaretal.(2011)elasticities)(Inmilliontonnes) 29

Table9:Predicteddemandforcerealandnon-cerealcommoditiesfrom2020-21to2030-31

(usingelasticitiesoftheWG(2018)oftheNitiAayog)(Inmilliontonnes) 30

Table10:Differencebetweenactualsupplyandpredictedestimatesbydifferentstudiesfor

cerealsandfoodgrains(inmilliontonnes) 34

Table11:Differencebetweenactualsupplyandpredictedestimatesbydifferentstudiesfor

oilseeds,sugar,sugarcane,fruits,vegetables,andmilk(inmilliontonnes) 35

Table12:Supplyprojectionsforfoodgrainsfrom2020-21to2030-31(Inmilliontonnes) 38

Table13:Supplyprojectionsfornon-cerealcommoditiesfrom2020-21to2030-31(inmillion

tonnes) 39

Table14:Demand-supplygapofagriculturalcommodities(inmilliontonnes) 43

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|iii

ABBREVIATIONSUSED

AIDS

AlmostIdealDemandSystem

FAO

FoodandAgricultureOrganization

FCDS

FoodCharacteristicDemandSystem

FYP

FiveYearPlan

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

HYV

HighYieldingVariety

IMF

InternationalMonetaryFund

IMPACT

InternationalModelforPolicyAnalysisofAgriculturalCommodities

andTrade

MMT

MillionMetricTonnes

NSSO

NationalSampleSurveyOrganization

COVID19

NovelCoronavirusDisease

PCY

PerCapitaIncome

PDS

PublicDistributionSystem

QUAIDS

QuadraticAlmostIdealDemandSystem

RMSE

RootMeanSquareError

SFWI

SeedFeedWastageandIndustrialUse

TE

TrienniumEnding

UN

UnitedNations

WPP

WorldPopulationProspect

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

A

ccuratedemandandsupplyforecastsarenecessaryforpolicymakerstogenerateanoutlookofessentialcommoditiesinthemediumandlongrun.Thefluctuationinproductioncanresultinadeficitinthefoodbalancesheet,thereby,impactingfoodsecurity,pricestabilityandincreasingdependenceonimports.Therefore,thepresentreportaimstoprovideabetterunderstandingofthedemandandsupplysituationofessentialcommoditiestill2030inIndiaandputforthrecommendationsbasedonourfindingssothatIndiaisfoodsecureincomingyears.

WegratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportprovidedbytheDepartmentofEconomicAnalysisandResearch(DEAR)-NationalBankforAgricultureandRuralDevelopment(NABARD).WewouldliketoexpressourprofoundgratitudetoDrG.R.Chintala,Chairman,NABARDandDrG.R.Chintala,DrHarshKumarBhanwala,formerChairman,NABARDfortheirsupportandproductiveinteractionfromtheveryconceptionoftheproject.

WewouldliketoextendoursincerethankstoMrP.V.S.Suryakumar,DeputyManagingDirector,NABARD,andDrK.J.S.Satyasai,ChiefGeneralManager,NABARD,DEAR,forprovidinguswithvaluableinsightsforenrichingourpaper,andtheirsuggestionsastheprojectevolved.

Lastly,weextendoursinceregratitudetoMsKritiKhuranaandMsAkshayaAggarwalfortheiroutstandingresearchsupport,particularlyindatacollationandempiricalanalysis.Theircontributionswereinstrumentalforfinalisingthisstudy.

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|v

FOREWORD

I

ndiahascomealongwayfrombeingafoodinsecurenationtobeingself-sufficientinfoodgrainsproduction.Today,thecountryisthelargestproducerofcotton,pulses,milkandjuteintheworldandthesecond-largestproducerofrice,wheat,sugarandfruitsandvegetablesglobally.However,thiswasnotthesituationduringthefirst

decadeofindependence.Thecountrywasonthevergeofamassivefaminewithtwoconsecutivedroughts(1965-66and1966-67)anddeceleratingfoodgrainsproduction,makingitdependheavilyonfoodimportsunderthePL-480foodaidprogrammeoftheUnitedStates.

Sincethen,Indiahasmaderemarkableprogressinfoodproduction.Throughimprovementintheagriculturalpractices,increasedavailabilityofimprovedvarietyseeds,andinvestmentinirrigationfacilities,alongwithpricesupportpolicies,theGreenRevolutiontechnologywasabletoincreasefoodgrainsproductioninthecountryduringthelate1960sandearly1970s.ThistransformationofIndianagriculture,fromrelyingonfoodimportstobeingself-sufficientinfoodgrainsproductionwasprimarilyduetofocussedpolicyinterventionsandinnovativetechnologyandplanningforfuturefoodsecurity,whichinturn,dependsuponreliabledemandandsupplypredictionsofessentialfoodarticles.

Thereliabledemandandsupplyforecasts,therefore,needtoincorporatepopulationandpercapitaincomegrowthaswellaschangingtastesandpreferencesofthepopulationtoprovideanaccuratefoodbalanceoutlookformediumtolongterm.Forinstance,duringthelasttwodecades,thedemandandsupplysituationinIndianagriculturehasundergonesignificantchange.Owingtotherapidlyincreasingpopulationcoupledwithsustainedincomegrowthandchanginglifestyles,therehasbeenasignificantshiftintheconsumptionpattern.Moreover,thediversificationofthefoodbasketawayfromtraditionalstaplestowardhigh-valuedcommoditiessignificantlyinfluencesfutureprospectsofthedemandandsupplyoffooditems.Andthereinliesthechallenge:howtomeetthegrowingdemandonasustainablebasisaswellasmoderateanyfluctuationinthesupplyofagriculturalcommoditiesespeciallyinthefaceofclimatechange?Inthisregard,thepresentstudyprovidestheestimatesofdemand,supply,andassociateddeficitindomesticproduction,ifany,thathastobemetthroughimportstill2030.

Weexpectthisreportwouldleadtoaninformeddebateamongvariousstakeholdersforimpartingproperplanningforfuturepoliciesandprogrammestofacilitatemeetingthecountry’sfoodandnutritionalsecurityinthecomingdecade.

DeepakMishra

Director&ChiefExecutive

ICRIER

ShajiKV

Chairman

NABARD

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|vi

PREFACE

T

hemainpremiseofthestudyistoimpartstrategicplanningforthefuturetosustainfoodsecuritywhileworkingtowardsachievingnutritionalsecurityinthecountrytill2030.Importantly,ensuringfoodsecurityinthecountryrequireshugeinvestmentsinproductivity-enhancingtechniques,innovativetechnology,andfocusedinterventionsandpoliciesbasedondemandandsupplyprojectionsforthemediumandlongterm.Againstthisbackdrop,thepresentstudyforecastsdemandandsupplyestimatesofagriculturalcommodities(wheat,rice,coarsecereals,cereals,pulses,foodgrains,sugar,oilseeds,fruits,vegetables,milk,andmeat)fortheperiodupto2030.Indoingso,thepaperfirstreviewsthepaststudiesandfindsoutsystematicbiases,ifany.Inthelightofthiscloseexaminationofliterature,especiallytheirmodels,thepresentstudygivesitsownestimatesofdemandandsupply.Hopefullyourestimatesarelikelytohavesmallerdegreeoferrorthanthepaststudies.

TheliteratureondemandprojectionsofagriculturalcommoditiesinthepasthasuseddifferentapproachesincludingHouseholdConsumption,Normative,BehaviouristicandAbsorptionapproaches.MostoftheseapproachestodemandprojectionsarebasedonthepercapitaconsumptionofagriculturalcommoditiesfromthelatestNationalSampleSurveyOrganisation’sconsumptionexpendituresurveyround(2011-12)asthebaseyear.Since2011-12,theconsumptionbaskethasnotonlydiversifiedbutthetasteandpreferenceshavealsochangedremarkably.Therefore,inthepresentstudy,ratherthanusingNSSOpercapitaconsumption,wehaveusedanabsorptionfunctiontoprojectthefuturedemandofselectedagriculturalcommoditieswhereabsorptionisthesummationofactualproductionandnetimportafterdeductingchangesingovernmentstock.

Underthescenarioofthepandemicandgiventhemedium-termforecastupto2030-31,wehaveassumedalternativethreeGDPgrowthratescenariosforprojectingthedemand:5percent(pessimistic),6percent(businessasusual)and7percent(optimistic)perannum.TheprojectedpopulationasgivenbytheUN’sWPP(2019),undertheassumptionofnochange,hasbeenestimatedtogrowat0.9percentperannumbetween2020and2030.Afteradjustingforthegrowthrateinpopulation,percapitaincome(PCY)isestimatedtogrowatanaveragerateofabout4.1,5.1and6.1percentperannum,respectively,underthethreeGDPgrowthratescenarios.Wehaveforecastedthefuturedemandforfoodgrains(rice,wheat,coarsecereals,andpulses),sugar,oilseedsfruits,vegetables,milk,andmeatupto2030-31usingthethreedifferentscenariosofPCYgrowth,populationprojectionsandtwosetsofexpenditureelasticitiesasestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011)andtheWorkingGroupReport(2018)oftheNitiAyog.Usingdifferentscenariosandelasticitiesprovidesuswiththepossiblerangeofdemandfortheseselectedfortheforecastedtimeperiod.

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|vii

Theabsorptionforcerealsandpulsesisforecastedtoincreaseupto272.1milliontonnes(MT)and33.7MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31ifthePCYgrowsby4.1percentperannumorincreasesupto273.3MTand35.3MT,respectivelyifthePCYgrowsattherateof6.1percentperannumusingelasticitiesestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011).Similarly,theprojecteddemandforfruitsandvegetableswillincreaseupto129.5-140MTand228.5-241.8MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31whereastheabsorptionofmilkandmeatwillincreaseintherangeof252.3-276.8MTand10.9-12.5MT,respectively,by2030-31underthedifferentassumptionsofPCYgrowthrate.UsingtheelasticitiesgivenbytheWG(2018)ofNitiAyog,weestimatethecerealdemandbytheendof2030-31willincreaseupto260.6MTunder4.1percentPCYgrowthand254.7MTunder6.1percentPCYgrowth.Thedemandforpulseswillrangebetween37.99to42.21MTin2030-31dependingonthevaryinggrowthscenarios.Ourdemandestimatesreiteratethattheconsumptionbaskettendstodiversifytowardsnutritiousandhigh-valuedcommoditiesincludingfruitsandvegetablesanddairyproducts,awayfromstaplessuchascereals.

Likewise,wehaveestimatedthesupplyofagriculturalcommodities(rice,wheat,coarsecereals,cereals,pulses,foodgrains,oilseeds,milk,sugarcane,fruits,andvegetables)usingthebaselevelproductionandpasttrendofgrowthrateinactualproductionfor10yearsaswellas15years.Last10yearstrendalsocapturespartofemergingchallengesofclimatechange.Ourestimatesshowthatcerealproductionisestimatedtoincreaseupto342.3MTbasedonthetrendofthelast10yearswhereasthefoodgrainsareprojectedtoincreaseupto377.2milliontonnesinclusiveof35MTofpulsesbytheendof2030-31.Inthecaseoffruitsandvegetables,theproductionisexpectedtoincreaseupto145.2and253.5milliontonnes,respectively,bytheendof2030-31.

Basedonourforecastsofagriculturalcommoditiesfortheyears2020-21,2025-26and2030-31,oilseed,pulsesandfruitsdepictasupplyanddemandgapinthecomingyears,implyingincreasingdependenceonimportsforthesecommodities.Oilseeds,particularly,needtechnologicalbreakthroughstoincreasetheirproductivityandreducethehighdependenceonedibleoilimports.However,self-sufficiencyintraditionaloilseedssuchasmustard,groundnutandsoyawouldrequireanadditionalareaof39millionhectaresunderoilseeds,whichcouldcutareaundercereals,endangeringthefoodsecurityofthecountry.Therefore,thecountryneedstorampupitseffortsindevelopingoilpalmathomewithproductivitycomparabletoIndonesiaandMalaysiawithfourtonnesofoilperhectaretoreduceimportdependencyinthefuture.Inthisregard,theNationalMissiononEdibleOils-OilPalmaimstopromotethecultivationofoilpalmandincreaseproductionupto1.12milliontonnesby2025-26and2.8milliontonnesby2029-30,thereby,reducingdependenceonedibleoilimports.

viii

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030

Lastly,thecountryneedstohavefocussedandstrategicactionplansforpulsesandfruitssincetheirdemandinthefutureshowshighergrowth,relativetotheirsupply.Thepresentstudyalsorecommendsincreasingproductionthroughpublicinvestmentinirrigation,agriculturalresearchespeciallyforclimateresilientvarietiesandinfrastructuraldevelopmentsuchasroadnetworksandagro-processingfacilities.Additionally,amovetowardssustainableagriculturalpracticesneedstobeprioritisedthatcanimprovegrainqualityandsoilhealth,ensuringfoodsecurityandsustainablegrowthinagriculture.

Authors

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|ix

ABSTRACT

D

emandandsupplyprojectionsarecrucialforformulatingfarsightedagriculturalandfoodpoliciestosustainfoodproduction,ensurefoodsecurityandfortheefficient

functioningoffoodsystemswhilecontrollingforexternalfactorssuchaschanging

consumptionbasket,taste,andpreferences,changingpopulationgrowthandincomegrowth.Againstthisbackdrop,thepresentstudyestimatesdemandandsupplyprojectionofmajoragriculturalcommoditiessuchascereals(rice,wheat,coarsecereals),pulses,milk,meat,sugar,fruits,andvegetablesupto2030-31underalternativepercapitaincomegrowthscenarios.Priortoforecastingdemandandsupplyprojectionsupto2030-31,thestudyhasvalidatedtheadoptedmethodologytoassesstheforecastingperformanceofthemodel.Areviewofearlierstudiesrevealsthat,forassessingthedemandprojection,moststudiesusedpercapitaconsumptionofagriculturalcommoditiesfromthelatestNationalSampleSurveyOrganisation’sconsumptionexpendituresurveyround(2011-12).However,sincethefoodbaskethasregisteredsignificantchangeovertheyears,thepresentstudyhasadoptedanabsorptionapproachtoprojectdemandforagriculturalcommoditieswheretheabsorptionofacommodityisestimatedafterdeductingchangesingovernmentstocksfromthesummationofproductionandnetimports.ExpenditureelasticityusedfordemandforecastinthisstudyiscompiledfromKumaretal.(2011)aswellasNitiAyog’sWorkingGroup(WG)ReportontheDemandandSupplyProjectionstowards2033(2018).

Theestimatedprojectionsshowthatthefoodbalancesheetwillbestablein2030-31andthecountrywillbeself-sufficientincerealsunderallthealternativescenarios.However,commoditieslikeoilseeds,pulsesandfruitsareexpectedtoexperienceasupplyanddemandgapinthecomingyears.Adeficitinthefoodbalancesheetwouldresultinhigherimportstomeetthedomesticdemand,inturn,leadstoahugeimportbillinthelongrun.Therefore,thepolicyperspectivesneedtoensureabalancebetweendomesticproductionandabsorptionofthesecommoditieswhichrequiresinvestmentsinproductivity-enhancingandtechnologicalinputssinceareaexpansionislimited.Theprojectionsalsocorroboratewithearlierfindingsthatconsumptionpatternswouldindeedshiftfurthertowardshigh-valuecommoditiesupto2030-31,whichrequiremajorinvestmentsinmarketinfrastructure,processing,andstoragefacilitiessuchaswarehouses,coldstorage,coldchains,etc.Encouragingprivateinvestmentandpublic-privatepartnerships(PPP)intheagriculturalsupplychaincanreducepost-harvestlossesaswellimprovethesupplyofhigh-valuedperishablecommodities.Moreover,withincreasingclimatechangeimpactsovertheyears,theproductionofagriculturalcommoditiestomeettheincreasingdemandisachallengingtaskforthegovernmentandrequirespublic-privatepartnershipsinagriculturalresearchanddevelopmentaswellasclimatechangemitigationresearch.

Notably,advisoryservicesandtimelyinformationthroughagriculturalextensionservicescanincentivisefarmerstoshifttowardssustainableagriculturalpracticesaswellasensurethebalancebetweendemandandsupplyoffood.

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|x

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

T

hepresentstudyaimstoforecastthedemandandsupplyofmajoragriculturalcommoditiesupto2030-31whichwillthrowlightonthefuture’sfoodbalancesheetscenariointhecountry.Withincomegrowthandthechanginglifestyleofpeople,thefoodconsumptionpatternhasbeendiversifyingtowardshigh-valuedhorticultureandlivestockproducts,awayfromstaplefoodgrains.Eventhoughtherehasbeenadecliningtrendinthepercapitaconsumptionofcerealsovertheyears,thetotalconsumptionoffoodgrainshaswitnessedasurgeduetotheincreasingpopulation.ThechangingscenariooftheconsumptionandproductionpatternoffoodgrainsandothermajorcommoditiescoupledwiththerisingpopulationandchangingtastesandpreferencesareboundtoinfluencethedemandandsupplyprospectsoffoodcommoditiesinIndia.

Inthepast,alongtraditionofempiricalstudieshasprovideddemandandsupplyprojectionsforagriculturalcommoditiesforthemediumandlongterm.However,acriticalassessmentofthesestudiesindicatedthattherearewidevariationsinthedemand

projections,particularly,forfoodgrains,mainlyowingtodifferencesinmodelsusedtoestimateexpenditureelasticityorvaryingassumptionsrelatedtothegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthandthefeedcoefficient.Moreover,mostofthepaststudieshavenotvalidatedtheirmodel’sforecastingstrengthpriortoprojectingex-postdemandandsupplyprojections,makingitdifficulttoassessthereliabilityandforecastingperformanceoftheadoptedmodels.Notably,inthepresentstudy,wehavevalidatedtheex-antedemandforagriculturalcommoditieswithactualdemandtoassesstherobustnessofthemodelpriortopredictingfuturedemand.

MostoftherecentempiricalstudiesonthedemandprospectshaveusedpercapitaconsumptionofagriculturalcommoditiesfromthelatestNationalSampleSurveyOrganisation’sconsumptionexpendituresurveyround(2011-12)forassessingthedemandprojection.Sincetheconsumptionbaskethasbeendiversifyingovertheyears,therefore,inthepresentstudy,wehaveusedanabsorptionfunctiontoprojectfuturedemandofselectedagriculturalcommodities.Absorptionisthesummationofactualproductionandnetimportafterdeductingchangesingovernmentstockwhichisinclusiveofbothdirectaswellasindirectdemand(seed,feed,wastage,andindustrialuse).

Usingtheabsorptionfunction,we,first,validatedtheforecastdemandwithactualabsorptionfortheperiodbetween2000-01to2019-20withthebaseyearasTrienniumEnding(TE)1999-00.However,forthevalidationexercise,wehavechangedthebaseyearatfive-yearintervalsi.e.,TE2004-05,TE2010-11,andTE2015-16forfoodgrainsandoilseedswhereasthebaseyearwaschangedatTE2007-08,TE2012-13,andTE2016-17

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSupplyforAgriculturalCommoditiestowards2030|xi

forprojectingthedemandforhighvaluedcommodities.Ourvalidationexerciseillustratesthattheforecasterrors(measuredusingtherootmeansquareerror(RMSE)islessthan5percentforagriculturalcommoditiessuchascoarsecereal,pulses,meat,sugar,andoilseeds,indicatingtheaccuracyandreliabilityofthemodelused.However,milk,rice,wheat,cereals,fruits,andvegetablesandfoodgrainsregisteredmorethan5percentofRMSE,primarilyduetohighshort-termfluctuationinproductionsaswellnetimportsofthesecommodities.Thus,thepredictionofthesecommoditiesmustbeinterpretedwiththecaveatthattheremaybesomedeviationbetweentheex-postpredictionsandactualabsorption.

Inlightofthecrisislikepandemicandconsideringthemedium-termoutlookuntil2030-31,wehaveformulatedthreedistinctGDPgrowthratescenarios:apessimisticprojectionof5percent,abusiness-as-usualscenarioat6percent,andanoptimisticoutlookat7percentannually.Theseprojectionshavebeenbasedontheassumptionofnochangeinthepopulation,whichisexpectedtoincreaseby0.9percentannuallyfrom2020to2030accordingtotheestimatesprovidedbytheUnitedNations(UN)WorldPopulationProspects(2019).Afteraccountingforthispopulationgrowth,percapitaincome(PCY)isanticipatedtoincreaseataverageratesof4.1percent,5.1percent,and6.1percentperannum,respectively,inthethreegrowthscenarios.UsingthesethreedifferentscenariosofPCYgrowth,wehaveprojectedthefuturedemandoffoodgrains(rice,wheat,coarsecereals,andpulses),sugar,oilseedsfruits,vegetables,milkandmeatupto2030-31.Inaddition,weassumedtheexpenditureelasticitiesasestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011)andtheWGReport(2018)oftheNitiAyogtopredictthedemandfortheseagriculturalcommodities.

Ourfindingsshowthatthetotalprojecteddemandorabsorptionforcerealsandpulseswillincreaseupto272.1milliontonnes(MT)and33.7MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31ifthePCYgrowsat4.1percentperannumorincreaseupto273.3MTand35.3MT,respectivelyifthePCYgrowsattherateof6.1percentperannumusingelasticitiesestimatedbyKumaretal.(2011).Theprojecteddemandforfruitsandvegetableswillincreaseupto129.5-140MTand228.5-241.8MT,respectively,bytheendof2030-31whereastheabsorptionofmilkandmeatwillincreaseintherangeof252.3-276.8MTand10.9-12.5MT,respectively,by2030-31underthedifferentassumptionsofPCYgrowthrate.

Similarly,theprojectionusingtheelasticitiesgivenbytheWG(2018)ofNitiAyogshowsthatthecerealdemandbytheendof2030-31willincreaseupto260.6MTunder4.1percentPCYgrowthand254.7MTunder6.1percentPCYgrowth.Thedemandforpulseswillrangebetween37.99to42.21MTin2030-31dependinguponthevaryinggrowth

ProspectsofIndia’sDemandandSup