时间数列分析(英文)课件

时间数列分析(英文)2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-2-BenefitsandUsesofTimeSeriesBenefitsoftimeseriesMonitorsalesperformanceovertime…removevariationinmonthlysalescausedbycalendardifferencesandseasonalitythatcanconcealpotentialproblemswithsalesAccuratelydeterminethedirectionandrateofgrowth/declineinsalesQuicklyidentifychangesinsalestrendsandcorrelatethemtofactorsaffectingsales…industry,company,competitionImprovedecisionmakingregardingsalesandmarketingactionsUsesoftimeseriesAssesscurrentsalesperformanceandevaluatetheeffectivenessofsalesprogramsDetermineunderlyingsalestrendandprojectyearendsalesEstablishappropriatebudgetsfornextyearandestimatemonthlybudgetspreadsTimeseriesanalysisistheprimarysalesanalysistechniqueatA-B2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-3-TimeSeriesAnalysisWhatisTimeSeriesAnalysis?HowareTimeSeriesplotsdeveloped?WhataretheadvantagesofTimeSeriesAnalysis?WhatareTimeSeriesusedfor?2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-4-WhatisTimeSeriesAnalysis?Timeseriesanalysisisastatisticaltechniqueusedtoanalyzeandmonitorsalesvolumeovertime.2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-5-WhyTimeSeries?BeersalesarehighlyseasonalItisverydifficulttoevaluatemonthlysalesovertime.2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-6-Howdotimeserieswork?MonthlyvariationinsalesiscausedbytwomajorfactorsSeasonalitySellingDays(calendareffects)TimeSeriestechniquestatisticallyremovestheeffectsofthesetwofactorsTimeSeriestechniqueusestheX-11procedureforseasonaladjustmentsTheX-11procedurewasdevelopedbytheU.S.BureauofCensusinthe1950’s.ItwasbroughttoA-Bintheearly1960’sandhasbecomethestandardforreportingsales.2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-7-Howdotimeseriesadjustsales?AsellingdayadjustmentfactorforeachmonthiscomputedandappliedtotherawsalesThisfactorallowsyoutocomparemonthsasiftheyhadthesamenumberofsellingdays…e.g.accuratelycomparetheJunethisyearvs.JunelastyearAseasonalfactoriscomputedandappliedtothesellingdayadjustedsalesThisfactor,whenapplied,givesyoumonthlydatadirectlycomparabletoanyothermonth…e.g.accuratelycompareJunethisyearwithMaythisyear2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-8-SellingDaysAllotherthingsbeingequal,salesinAug-03woulddecrease4.8%becauseofonelesssellingday.InordertocomparethetwomonthsAug-03saleswillhavetobeadjustedup+4.8%.2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-9-SeasonalitySeasonalityisexpressedasanindexforamonthcomparedtoanaveragemonth.Amonthwheresaleswere20%higherthanaveragewouldhaveaseasonalfactorof120.Amonthwhichwas10%lowerthanaveragewouldhaveaseasonalfactorof90.StrongSeasonalityNoSeasonality2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-10-AdjustingSalesRawSalesXSellingDayFactor÷SeasonalFactorSeasonallyAdjustedSales=2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-11-Howdotimeserieswork?RawSalesSellingDayAdjustedSeasonallyAdjusted2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-12-DissectingaTimeSeriesPlotAnnualizedSales…tellsushowbigthemarketis.TrendLine…tellsusthedirectionofsalesbasedonpast&presentperformanceIrregularvariations…showsustheimpactofmarketplaceactionsSTR’s;OntarioSTC’sDataDescription…tellsusthetypeofdataplotted2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-13-AdvantagesofTimeSeriesAdvantagesoftimeseries:RemovesvariationinmonthlysalescausedbycalendardifferencesandseasonalityHelpustoaccuratelyestimatethedirectionandrateofsalesgrowth/declineTheyareanimprovementoverothermethodssuchasyear-over-yeargrowthormovingaveragesbecausetheyshowuswhatishappeningsooner…anearlywarningofchangingsalesconditionsTimeseriessignificantlyimprovedecisionmaking…AllowsustotakecorrectiveactionsoonerAllowsustotaketherightcorrectiveactionHelpstoestablishappropriatesalesobjectives2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-14-AdvantagesofTimeSeriesIfthetimeseriesshowsarelativesmoothpatternfromoneyeartothenext…thetrendandtheyearoveryeargrowthwouldprovideroughlythesamereading.But,iftherewasasignificantmarketeventorchange,theyearoveryeartrendswillbemisleading+50%2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-15-MisleadingGrowthRates0%+21%2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-16-MoreMisleadingGrowthRates-21%+15%2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-17-Whataretimeseriesusedfor?AtA-Bweusetimeseriesto…AssesscurrentsalesperformanceDevelopcurrentyearsalesprojections…PYE(projectedyear-end)Forecastnextyearsales…developbudgetsandmonthlyspreadsOtherquantitativesalesanalysis2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-18-AssessingSalesPerformanceHowisourYTDperformance?2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-19-AssessingSalesPerformance2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-20-EstimatingPYEIfthereisnochangeinthebusinessenvironmentsaleswillcontinueoncurrenttrend.Pointsoffthetrendlinecanbeusedtoestimatemonthlysales.UnderlyingTrendPredicted{2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-21-UnderlyingTrendUnderlyingtrendisatrendlinethatbestdescribesthecurrentsalesgrowthrate.Itisthecollectiverepresentationofallunderlyingfactorsthatareinfluencingsales…industry,competition,andcompanyspecific,etc.Itisdeterminedusingabest-fitlinetoasetofpointsonthetimeseries.Thepointsareselectedbasedonin-depthunderstandingoftheunderlyingfactorsinfluencingsales,howtheyhavechangedovertime,andhowtheywilllikelychangeinthefuture.Pointsofinflectiononthetimeseriesoftensignalchangesintheunderlyingfactorsandhencetheunderlyingtrend.2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-22-EstimatingPYEPredicted{ActualSales{Predicted{SeasonallyAdj.Sales÷SellingDayFactorXSeasonalFactorMonthlySales=2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-23-EstablishingBudgetsandSpreadsGivenourYTDSep-2003performancewhatwouldbeanappropriatebudgetfornextyearandhowshouldthatvolumebespreadbymonth?2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-24-EstablishingBudgetsandSpreads2023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-25-AnotherExampleUsingTimeSeriesAnnualizedSTR'sinMBBLS199819992000200120022003ElasticityCalculationP1:18.99;P2:20.45i.e.+7%V1:44.5;V2:38.5i.e.-14%Elasticity=-2.0EstimatingthepriceelasticityPrice=P1Volume=V1Price=P2Volume=V22023/12/5O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt-26-ConclusionsTimeSeriestechniqueisaveryusefulsalesanalysistool…itisthestandardforreportingandanalyzingsalesatA-BItisapowerfuldecisionmakingtoolforassessingsalesperformance,makinga