关于伊拉克战后重建机会的研究报告英文版

关于伊拉克战后重建机会的研究报告英文版:437,000m2

:11%:1%:88%

(8.0m)(2.1m)(2.0m)():35-50º:5-15º:155

: ,

39,000765,000266,000,

––––––3%,

2509500(1990),1800

: ,50%1628%51%75%1m–2m’s4.5–554%1.5-2.5

1980198519901995200020023%1980200224: 100%=24.2m

–46212–22

’s%54%(.75%) * 623: 200219801998*-1980.1998

:

m3,2001,2001’S…: ,20021.2.3.4.5.,,2001,m3,20011.2.3.4.5.10.

… * ,: ;;2003200250-6025-351980’S*-19802002,’s50%…

-50%2002(24-60) * ,: ;20021980’S*-19802002…

(1.000-2.500)-70%: 2.2003.-19702000a252000: 2.2003.-1970200070’s‘0002000 *a30a24:

*-2002’s

: 2002;

%19961997199819992000

()“”:0,311983200120021996199719981999200020012002900-1.000=1–19962002

:

$

230-4851091113%60-130

“”1991-2001

* $103.4–$129.4;25181310

.,8823

22,,1

12

24

119*14-25

133–144

1980––2001’s‘’80()$200m: 200255.

-2001,

: “Goodstandard”

1Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsmodestlyataCAGRof3-5%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil9-11%)“BestinClass”

2Assumesthenon-oilpartofthetheIraqieconomygrowsstronglyataCAGRof7-9%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil11-13%)“Distinctive”3Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsaggressivelyataCAGR12-15%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil13-15%)

’s‘’4,0002013

Oilproductionlevel2008Oilproductionlevel20134-5millionbarrelsperday6-7millionbarrelsperdayOilSector+*)2003=24,2008=29,2013=33: 2003-2013()*2003-2013(‘000)

‘’4,00020131“GoodStandard”

1.8-2.22.2-2.62003201320081.253-6373-862003201320083014%6%11%3%2“Bestinclass”

2.0-2.32.5-2.92003201320081.257-6783-982003201320083016%8%12%5%3“Distinctive”

2.2-2.63.1-3.82003201320081.263-75102-1262003201320083018%11%15%8%

: 2.2003

‘000

65145201553022551611011019801990200319801990200370-90300-32080-100300-320100-130300-3203.1-4.99-112.5-2.99-112.2-2.69-11IraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiGDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)GDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)GDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)23120132013

* a0.2: 2003

()30200-300Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)1GDP2013

(bnUSD)70-90Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)2250-350GDP2013

(bnUSD)80-100Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)3350-500GDP2013

bnUSD100-130

‘’’s250-350,,

0.2

: ;

,..(.)-2008%200860107554332134-4264332-321-211100

2008,’s

57-672:11-13%‘’: ,201044(80%a20)

: 20012002200320042005200620072008200920106m30-353-6

’sm: Oil&gasReestablishingandincreasingoilproductioncapacityto6-7millionbarrelsperdayby2010USD35-40billionUtilitiesRe-constructionofbasicinfrastructuresuchastransportfacilities,telecommunicationsandutilities(powercapacitycurrentlyat1.800MWcomparedto9.500MWpre1990)USD10-15billionjustforelectricityandtelecom$20a$600aEducationRebuildingandupgradingofprimary,secondaryandtertiaryeducationalinstitutionsUSD6-12billionHealthcareReestablishingpre1980healthcarefacilitiesandstandardsUSD10-20billionTransportinfrastructureRebuilding40,000kmofpavedroads,3mainrailwaylines,3mainairports,2portsSeveralbillionsHousing/offices…………’s

IndustrialinfrastructureRebuildingIraq’sindustrialbase(petrochemical,buildingmaterials,mining,consumergoods,etc.)?: ,,

(,7/203)(,24/303)(,11/403)(,11/4/03)(,17/4/03)(()17/2/03)(5/5/2003)(,30/4/03)(,8/403)(28/303)(,28/303)(.,,,27/05/2003)

680168636.7:1.7.700.1.9.2.5.:

,,,

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a

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