新SAT真题分享：2017-10-Asia（学习资料）VIP

扫码进入「TD真题捕手」获取答案0timetheIt’soneofthebestgettheinformationontheEssayrubricat.Asyoureadpassagebelow,considerhowMattRidley•evidence,suchasfactsorexamples,tosupportclaims.•reasoningtodevelopideasandtoconnectclaimsandevidence.•stylisticorpersuasiveelements,suchaswordchoiceorappealstoemotion,

toaddpowertotheideasexpressed.AdaptedfromMattRidley,“Lightenup,SirDavid.Ourwildlifeissafe”

©2013byTheTimes.OriginallypublishedSeptember122013.1Publicisinghisimminentnewseriesabouttheevolutionofanimals,SirDavid

Attenboroughsaidinaninterviewthisweekthathethoughtareductioninhuman

populationduringthiscenturyisimpossibleand“we’reluckytobelivingwhenwe

are,becausethingsaregoingtogetworse”.Peoplewilllookbackinanother100

years“ataworldthatwaslesscrowded,fullofnaturalwonders,andhealthier”.2HisisacommonviewandoneIusedtoshare.Helongsforpeopletoenjoytheopenspacesandabundantherdsofgamethathehasbeenfortunateenoughtosee.

Tothatendhethinksitvitalthatthereshouldbefewerofus.3Eversopolitely,Iwouldnowpassionatelydisagreewiththetwopremisesofhisargument.It’sactuallyquitelikely,ratherthanimpossible,thatpopulationwillbe

fallingbytheendofthiscenturyanditisalsoquitelikelythatthepeoplealive

thenwillhavelotsmorewildernesstoexploreandwildlifetoadmirethantoday.4Therateatwhichworldpopulationgrowshasroughlyhalvedfrommorethan2per

centayearinthe1960storoughly1percentayearnow.Eventhetotalnumber

ofpeopleaddedtotheannualpopulationhasbeendroppingfornearly30years.

Ifthosedeclinescontinue,theywillhitzeroinabout2070—notmuchmore

than50yearsfromnow.Inrecentdecadesthebirthratehasfallenineverypartof

theworld.FertilityinBangladeshhasfallenfromnearly7childrenperwomanin

the1960stojustover2today;Kenyafrom8to4.5;Brazil5.7to1.8;Iran6.8to

1.9;Ireland3.9to2.5Itisstillconventionalwisdomthattheonlywaytogetpopulationgrowthdownistobenastytopeople,albeitwithnoblemotives.Youmustcoerce,bribe,shameor

educatethemintohavingfewerbabiesagainsttheirpreferences.Onecountry—

China—didindeedbringdownitsbirthratewithcoercivemeasuresinthe

shapeofaone-childpolicy.Another—India—triedtointroducecoerced

sterilisationinthe1960sinreturnforfoodaidfromAmerica,butwasdefeated

bypopularprotestanddemocracy,factorsunknowninChina.6Yeteverywhereelsevoluntarybirthcontrolprovedamoreeffectiveweaponthan

coercion,andthebirthratecamedownjustasfast.Thiswasbecausenicethingshappened:economicgrowth,femaleemancipationand,aboveall,theconquestof

childmortality.Solongaswomenhavesomeaccesstothemeansofbirthcontrol,

thenoneofthebestpredictorsofafallingbirthrateisafallingchildmortality

rate.Oncechildrenstopdyingininfancy,peopleplansmallerfamilies.Oncethey

thinktheirkidswillsurvive,theystartinvestinginthem,ratherthaninhaving

morekids.7Youcanseethisinthestatistics.ThereisnocountryonEarthwithachildmortality

ratebelow10per1,000birthsthathasafertilityhigherthan3childrenper

woman;whereasallcountriesexceptone(Swaziland)thathaveachildmortality

rateabove100alsohaveafertilityrateabove4.5.Keepkidsaliveandyoubring

downpopulationgrowth.8WhichiswhytherecentplummetingofchildmortalityinAfricaissuchgoodnews

forSirDavidandotherswithhisconcerns.Thankstorapideconomicgrowth,bettergovernanceandmuchimprovedpublichealth,especiallyagainstmalaria,most

Africancountriesarenowexperiencingchild-mortalityfallsof5percentormorea

year,aratethatisfarmorerapidthanitwasinthe1990s.Thesefallswillsurelysoon

befollowed,asnightfollowsday,byanevenfasterfallinbirthrates.9Europe,AsiaandLatinAmericahavealreadygonethroughthistransitionandmost

countriesareproducingbabiesatorbelowreplacementrateof2.2perwoman,at

whichpopulationstabilises(withoutimmigration).Africa,forsolongwrittenoff

asaspecial(basket)case,isfollowingsuitalmostexactly.10Forthisreasonalone,Isuspecttheworldpopulationwillstopgrowingandbegintoshrinkevenearlierthan2070andalmostcertainlywithinthiscentury.Butevenif

itdoesnot,thereisgoodreasontoreassureSirDavidthatourgreatgrandchildren

willhavemorewildlifetolookatthanhehashad.Aningeniousstudybyscientists

atRockefellerUniversityinNewYorkhasrecentlycalculatedthatevenwith

populationcontinuingtogrow,andevenwithpeopleeatingmorefoodand

especiallymoremeat,wehavealmostcertainlyalreadypassed“peakfarmland”,

becauseoftherateatwhichfertilisersareimprovingyields.(Orwewouldhave

doneifnotforbiofuelsprojects.)Wewillfeednineortenbillionpeoplein2070

fromaconsiderablysmalleracreagethanweneedtofeedsevenbilliontoday.11Landsparingisalreadyoccurringonagrandscale.Forestcoverisincreasinginmany

partsoftheworld,fromScotlandtoBangladesh.Wildlifepopulationsarebooming

inEurope(deer,bears,boar,otters),inthepolarregions(walrus,seals,penguins,

whales)andNorthAmerica(turkeys,coyotes,bison,geese)andthisishappening

fastestintherichestcountries.Accordingtoonerecentreport,animalpopulations

grewby6percentinEurope,NorthAmericaandNorthernAsiabetween1970and

2012,whileshrinkingintropicalregions.Thereisalmostaperfectcorrelation

betweentheseverityofconservationproblemsandpoverty,becausethericher

peopleget,thelesstheytrytoliveoffthelandandcompetewithnature—theless

theyseekbushmeatandcharcoalfromtheforest.12Onceagain,Africamayspringapleasantsurprise.Overthepastfourdecadesagricultural

yieldsinAfricahardlybudgedwhiletheydoubledorquadrupledinmostofAsia.

Thatisalmostentirelydowntoadearthoffertiliseranditisbeginningtochange.If

Africanyieldsweretorise,theacreagedevotedtofarmlandgloballywouldstartto

fallevenfaster,releasingmoreandmorelandfor“re-wilding”.Thegreatherdsand

flocksthatsodelightSirDavidwouldreassembleinmoreandmoreplaces.The

happyco