消费行业一周看图2023W42：减重风起对消费结构有哪些潜在影响

减重风起，对消费结构有哪些潜在影响？分析师张立聪S1450517070005S1450518120001赵国防S1450521120008罗乾生S1450522010002S1450522030005李奕臻S1450520020001韩星雨S1450522080002S1450521070002陈伟浩S1450523050002冯俊曦S1450520010002S1450522110001连国强S1450523020002邢乐涵S1450523010001陆偲聪S1450522100001胡家东联系人S1450122020044王玲瑶S1450523070003侯雅楠、万雨萌、夏心怡、都春竹商社行业首席分析师王朔：3.53.02.52.00.50.03.32.52.42.32.22.12.0201820192020202120222023E2030EBMI正常值人群比例（%） BMI偏低人群比例（%）BMI偏高人群比例（%）454025202015201620172018201920202021利拉鲁肽注射液华东医药GLP-1R2023/7/5HEC88473注射液GLP-1R/FGF-212期2023/8/17贝那鲁肽注射液仁会生物GLP-1R2023/7/27GZR18注射液甘李药业GLP-1R2期2023/6/7替尔泊肽注射液礼来生物GLP-1R/GIPRNDA2023/8/21GMA105注射液鸿运华宁GLP-1R2期2022/6/27司美格鲁肽注射液诺和诺德GLP-1RNDA2023/6/3BI456906注射液勃林格殷格翰GLP-1R/GCGR2期2021/4/7注射用IBI362信达生物GLP-1R/GCGR2022/10/4BGM0504注射液博瑞生物GLP-1R/GIPR2期2023/10/10XW003注射液先为达生物GLP-1R2023/3/15注射用LY3437943礼来GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR2022/9/27LY3502970（Orforglipron）胶囊礼来GLP-1R2023/8/11注射用DR10624华东医药GLP-1R/GCGR/FGFR12023/8/31CagriSema诺和诺德GLP-1R/AMY32023/7/5ZT002注射液质肽生物GLP-1R2023/7/26诺利糖肽注射液恒瑞医药GLP-1R2期2021/3/8UBT251注射液联邦制药GLP-1R/GIP/GCGR2023/9/20TG103注射液石药集团GLP-1R2期2022/3/9RAY1225注射液众生睿创GLP-1R/GIPR2023/4/14MDR-001片德睿智药GLP-1R2期2023/6/19PB-718注射液派格生物GLP-1R/GCGR2023/5/31HS-20094注射液豪森药业GLP-1R/GIPR2期2023/10/10MWN101注射液GLP-1R/GCGR/GIPR2023/6/9HRS9531注射液恒瑞医药GLP-1R/GIPR2期2023/9/2621%内分泌失调三餐不定暴饮暴食喜甜食/油炸食品生活作息习惯27%38%44%47%48%48%50%21%内分泌失调三餐不定暴饮暴食喜甜食/油炸食品生活作息习惯27%38%44%47%48%48%50%60%油炸的64%2022年体重超重原因TOP5益普索消费者调查中认为是不健康 辣的 辣的蛋白质含量不足的碳水含量高的热量高的营养不均衡的脂肪含量高的烤的味道过咸的糖分多的/味道过甜的27.9%27.9%35.5%36.6%47.3%48.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0%20%40%60%胰岛素敏感性↑收缩力↑心输出量↑胰岛素敏感性↑收缩力↑心输出量↑心肌存活↑心脏保护↑葡萄糖摄取↑骨葡萄糖利用↑血管舒张↑葡萄糖摄取↑骨形成↑左心室功能↑血压↑↓→心率↑↓→骨质↑ANP生成↑尿钠排泄↑胰岛素分泌↑大脑食物摄取↓水摄取↓学习和记忆能力↑胰岛素合成↑神经保护↑炎症↓奖赏行为↓食欲↓凋亡↓胰高血糖素分泌↓Beta细胞增殖↑t肝脏凋亡↓糖异生↓Beta细胞存活↑GLP-1脂肪肝↓尿钠排泄↑0反式脂肪酸0色素0香精低糖无糖低脂0添加无盐0%20%40%60%80%100%120%30025020050070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%200080060040020004000350030002500200020008006004002000400035003000250020005000120%100%80%60%40%20%0%餐行业市场规模及增速速20172018201920202021E300%250%200%50%0%服饰：优异的减重效果有望带动“衣柜翻新”0-5-10-15-20-25-30GLP-1RGLP-1R肽GLP-1RGIPR/GLP-1RSURMOUNT-1-8-16.0-8-16.0-17.4-20.9-24.2600050006000400030002000025%20%15%10%5%0%-5%8006004002000 CAGR:25%CAGR:20%73911052018201920202021E2022E2030E生活美容塑形,20%非侵入式医美侵入式医美塑形,70% 银械础筑色力通筑用油算地信子媒合保铁车行炭银械础筑色力通筑用油算地信子媒合保铁车行炭0%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-8%通装饰本周松炀资源上涨12.0%AR/VR板块回调202001202003202005202007202009202011202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309202001202003202005202007202009202011202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309空调内销量（左轴）800600400200050%8006004002000-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%202001202002202003202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202001202002202003202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202011202012202101202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109202110202111202112202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302202303202304202305202306202307202308202309海尔格力其他奥克斯海尔格力其他90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%行业整体平台电商专业电商40%30%20%-10%-20%-30%-40%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309格力美的海尔其它90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%202002202005202008202011202102202105202108202111202202202205202208202211202302202305202308格力美的海尔行业整体50%40%30%20%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%202001202004202007202010202101202104202107202110202201202204202207202210202301202304202307行业整体平台电商专业电商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309格力美的海尔行业整体30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309行业整体平台电商专业电商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海尔美的海信系其它90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%202003202006202009202012202103202106202109202112202203202206202209202212202303202306202309海尔美的海信系行业整体30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309行业整体平台电商专业电商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海尔美的海信系行业整体20%-5%-10%-15%-20%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309-10%-20%-10%-20%行业整体平台电商专业电商30%20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海尔美的系西门子其它90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%202001202004202007202010202101202104202107202110202201202204202207202210202301202304202307海尔美的系西门子行业整体50%40%30%20%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305行业整体平台电商专业电商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海尔美的系西门子行业整体30%20%0%-10%-20%-30%20200120200520200920210120210520210920220120220520220920230120230520230920200120200220200320200420200520200120200220200320200420200520200620200720200820200920201020201120201220210120210220210320210420210520210620210720210820210920211020211120211220220120220220220320220420220520220620220720220820220920221020221120221220230120230220230320230420230520230620230720230820230960%50%40%30%20%居民电价（欧分/kWh）居民燃气价格（欧分/kWh）燃气价格/电价（右轴）402520504003503002502000现货价格3个月期货价格2022012022022022032022042022052022062022072022082022092022102022112022122023012023022023032023042023052023062023072023082023092020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10-全国整车货运流量指数2023年10月week3主要城市周平均最高气温同比变化2020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/402020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/4045%35%25%15% 5% -5%-15%-25%-35%-45%-55%-65%特别调整2020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/402020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/4070%50%30%-10%-30%-50%特别调整4283单位：美元/吨100%单位：美元/吨100%80%60%40%20%-20%-40%80006000400020000LME3个月铜期货收盘价（左轴）YoY（右轴）10月19日单价8004美元 去年同期单价7365美元10月19日单价8004美元2020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02单位：美元/吨去年同期单价2180美元80%60%单位：美元/吨去年同期单价2180美元80%60%40%20%-20%-40%-60%4500400035003000250020005000LME3个月铝期货收盘价（左轴）YoY（右轴） 10月19日单价2177美元2020-01-162020-03-162020-05-162020-07-162020-09-162020-11-162021-01-162021-03-162021-05-162021-07-162021-09-162021-11-162022-01-162022-03-162022-05-162022-07-162022-09-162022-11-162023-01-162023-03-162023-05-162023-07-162023-09-16去年同期中间价7.1去年同期中间价7.1美7.0元兑6.8人币间6.010月20日中间价7.210月20日中间价7.22020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-022020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02沪深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）2520502020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02沪深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）252050格力电器海尔智家海信视像TCL科技格力电器海尔智家海信视像TCL科技2020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02沪深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）2020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02沪深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）苏泊尔科沃斯石头科技老板电器苏泊尔科沃斯石头科技864202020-01-092020-02-142020-03-132020-04-132020-05-142020-06-112020-07-132020-08-102020-01-092020-02-142020-03-132020-04-132020-05-142020-06-112020-07-132020-08-102020-09-072020-10-132020-11-102020-12-082021-01-062021-02-032021-03-102021-04-082021-05-112021-06-082021-07-072021-08-042021-09-012021-10-082021-11-052021-12-032021-12-312022-02-072022-03-072022-04-062022-05-092022-06-072022-07-052022-08-022022-08-302022-09-292022-11-032022-11-302022-12-282023-02-022023-03-022023-03-302023-04-282023-05-312023-06-302023-07-282023-08-252023-09-22外资持股占自由流通股比例（%）格力电器美的集团252050877699-6--10%-3%89AO史密斯-7%-158-61-165-61-7%9-14-18-1%998876--- 子行业周涨跌幅（2023.10.16—2023.10.20） 中药材价格指数（2020-2023年）41周南方省份流感病毒标本阳性率11.3%，较上周上升1.30pct南方省份流感病毒阳性标本检测结果（例，截至2023年10月20日）YamagataVictoriaB未分系A(unsubtyped)甲型（H1N1）A（H3N2）450040002500200041周北方省份流感病毒标本阳性率1.80%，较上周上升0.50pct北方省份流感病毒阳性标本检测结果（例，截至2023年10月20日）YamagataVictoriaB未分系A(unsubtyped)0HPV疫苗批签发量小幅增加HPV疫苗批签发批次（截至2023年9月28日）0肺炎疫苗批签发批次（截至2023年9月280重点狂犬疫苗批签发批次（截至2023年9月28日）0国产白蛋白批签发批次（截至2023年9月28日）02011年2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年静丙批签发保持稳定增长静丙批签发批次（截至2023年9月28日）02011年2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年基本医疗保险基金（含生育保险）单月收入（截至2023年8月）0基本医疗保险基金（含生育保险）单月支出（截至2023年8月）02023年1月2023年3月2023年5月2023年7月食饮数据跟踪SW软饮料SW预加工食品SW休闲食品SW啤酒SW食品饮料SW乳品SWSW软饮料SW预加工食品SW休闲食品SW啤酒SW食品饮料SW乳品SW调味发酵品SW白酒沪深300近一周涨跌幅(算术平均)近一月涨跌幅(算术平均)近一年涨跌幅(算术平均)50-5-10-15-20-25-30五粮液贵州茅台海天味业伊利股份五粮液贵州茅台海天味业2520502020-01-162021-01-162022-01-162023-01-162019-01-162020-01-162021-01-162022-01-162023-01-16飞天茅台批价较为平稳茅台出厂价(元)茅台一批价(元)400035003000250020005002019/1/272019/3/272019/5/272019/7/272019/9/272019/11/272020/1/272020/3/272020/5/272020/7/272020/9/272020/11/272021/1/272021/3/272021/5/272021/7/272021/9/272021/11/272022/1/272022/3/272022/5/272022/7/272022/9/272022/11/272023/1/272023/3/272023/5/272023/7/27普五批价较为平稳9509008508002019/1/272019/3/272019/5/272019/7/272019/9/272019/11/272020/1/272020/3/272020/5/272020/7/272020/9/272020/11/272021/1/272021/3/272021/5/272021/7/272021/9/272021/11/272022/1/272022/3/272022/5/272022/7/272022/9/272022/11/272023/1/272023/3/272023/5/272023/7/27全国建材家居景气指数当月值40200全国建材家居景气指数(BHI)：当月值2021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09全国办公用品零售额及当月同比（亿元，%）零售额:文化办公用品类:当月同比（%）50%40%30%20%0%-10%-20%2020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-098006004002000销售额:建材家居卖场:当月值销售额:建材家居卖场:当月同比2022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-0940200-20-40-60软体家具上游TDI国内现货价、纯MDI现货价(元/吨)3500030000250002000050000现货价:TDI:国内CCFEI价格指数:纯MDI2020-10-192021-04-192021-10-192022-04-192022-10-192023-04-192023-10-19外盘针叶浆、阔叶浆价格走势（美元/吨）9008006005004003002000外盘阔叶浆价格外盘针叶浆价格（右轴）80060040020002021-10-192022-02-192022-06-192022-10-192023-02-192023-06-192023-10-19纸品价格变动一览（元/吨，截至10月20日）5040200上海（浦东+虹桥）西安咸阳机场 杭州萧山机场桂林两江机场三亚凤凰机场张家界荷花机场丽江三义机场 宜春明月山机场九寨沟黄龙机场郑州新郑机场80%60%40%20%0%2023/2/282023/3/72023/2/282023/3/72023/3/142023/3/212023/3/282023/4/42023/4/112023/4/182023/4/252023/5/22023/5/92023/5/162023/5/232023/5/302023/6/62023/6/132023/6/202023/6/272023/7/42023/7/112023/7/182023/7/252023/8/12023/8/82023/8/152023/8/222023/8/292023/9/52023/9/122023/9/192023/9/262023/10/32023/10/102023/10/1723年国际航班（包括港澳台）架次较19年同期恢复情况65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%8000600040002000022.0422.0622.0822.1022.1223.0223.0423.0623.0823.10600500400300200020202021202220231/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/145040035030025020050020202021202220231/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/190%80%60%出租率：恢复至2019年比例平均房价：恢复至2019年比例RevPAR：恢复至2019年比例96%92%88%83%95%94%96%98%94%99%86%88%第一周第二周第三周第四周7月第一周第二周第三周第四周8月第一周第二周第三周第四周第五周9月第一周第二周90%80%60%95%95%90%87%87%76%74%94%97%95%96%98%86%86%85%89%90%84%90%8月9月200%80%60%8月9月240%220%200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%223%208%208%90%80%80%98%8月9月500450400350300250200500天猫（亿元） 天猫YoY天猫（亿元） 天猫YoY京东YoY抖音YoY护肤大盘YoY300%250%200%50%0%-50%-100%2019年1月2019年8月2020年3月2020年10月2021年5月2021年12月2022年7月2023年2月2023年9月天猫YoY京东YoY抖音YoY彩妆大盘YoY120806050%400%20-50%0-100%2019年1月2019年8月2020年3月2020年10月2021年5月2021年12月2022年7月2023年2月2023年9月86420猫粮狗粮猫零食猫罐头狗零食22.0922.1022.1122.1223.0123.0223.0323.0423.0523.0623.0723.0823.09202086420100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%13.613.3.59.89.79.69.69.98.68.48.18.59.08.38.68.08.47.37.27.67.07.34.910.0.46.598765432109.4 7.6 6.8/ 7.65.94.14.55.04.44.34.64.64.25.14.54.94.64.54.9 3.22.52.82.72.84.14.55.04.44.34.64.64.25.14.54.94.64.54.9 3.22.52.82.72.83.23.13.0 80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%3.02.52.00.50.02.62.62.32.32.20.90.70.70.80.90.70.70.8160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%98765498765432060%50%40%30%20%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%8.157.978.157.977.967.477.477.477.267.267.547.266.706.696.116.136.586.706.696.116.136.305.855.855.795.04 4.73 4.4 8.07.37.47.27.57.48.021.0321.0521.0721.0921.1122.0122.0322.0522.0722.0922.1123.0123.0323.0523.0723.099月我国社会消费品销售总额39826.09000080000700006000050000400003000020000限额以上（亿元）限额以上同比增速（%，右轴）限额以上（亿元）限额以上同比增速（%，右轴）社零总额名义同比增速（%，右轴）2020-2020-2020-2020-2020-2021-2021-2021-2021-2021-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2023-2023-2023-2023-5040200-10-202.5210.50印度培育钻石毛坯进口额（亿美元）YoY（右轴）3000%2500%2000%500%0%-500%2019.092020.012020.052020.092021.012021.052021.092022.012022.052022.092023.012023.052023.099月印度培育钻石毛胚进口额渗透率为+7.6%印度培育钻石