纺织服装行业市场前景及投资研究报告：海外运动品牌财报梳理VIP

Equity–

AsiaResearch海外运动品牌2023财报深度梳理TheIn-depth

Analysis

of2023Financial

ReportsofOverseaSportsBrands8June2023主要结论【行业】1、

23Q1美国CPI整体呈回落趋势，但3月CPI增速仍高于零售增速，个人储蓄总额22Q4至今持续回升，但较2019年同期仍低40.7%，我们判断通胀压力仍在持续，居民可选消费意愿或仍将承压2、国产运动品牌竞争力进一步提升，2022年市占率提升显著3、美国服装零售库销比仍未回到17-19年中枢，我们判断下半年短期仍存补库存需求【国产运动品牌】1、22H2受零售环境影响业绩承压2、净利率下滑幅度小于毛利率，我们推断严格的费用管控、渠道优化、政府补贴稳定了毛利水平3、2022年均逆势开店，体现较强的资金实力和长期发展信心【海外运动品牌】1、22Q4净利率普遍承压，我们判断主要来自促销库存清理以及运输成本提升2、地区增速表现分化，从19Q4-22Q4复合增速看，北美地区收入增速较强，亚太地区收入显著承压3、22Q4受库存难清理的影响，批发增速放缓4、库存呈回落趋势，但库存额仍处高位，我们判断短期折扣率仍受库存消化影响【风险提示】全球零售环境疲软，数字化渠道整合不及预期，消费偏好变化For

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

22022年国产品牌流水更具韧性2022零售环境面临较大挑战，但国产品牌流水在Q1和Q3仍具有较强韧性，增速普遍好于国际品牌，Q2和Q4受疫情冲击，多数品牌流水同比有所下降，但表现仍强于国际品牌。图：海内外运动品牌流水和收入情况资料：安踏体育、李宁、特步国际2021/2022Q1-Q4零售流水公告，宝胜国际2021/2022各月度收入公告，Nike、Adidas、Puma、VF、UA

2021/2022各季度财报，Wind，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

3国产品牌进一步提升竞争力欧睿数据显示，2022年国内运动服饰规模同比增2.2%，预计2022-2027年复合增速8.7%，2022年高于行业增速的细分领域包括户外服饰（20%）、专业运动鞋（4%）、户外鞋履（15%）。而未来5年复合增速领先的细分领域则为户外服饰（14.7%）、专业运动鞋（10.5%）和户外鞋履（12.9%）。市场格局看，2022年国产品牌市占率提升明显，其中安踏/李宁/特步/361度市占率同比增1.2/1.1/1.3/0.4pct至11%/10.4%/6.3%/3.1%。图：2013-2022年中国运动服饰市场品牌市占率（%）资料：Euromonitor，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

4多数国内品牌2022下半年业绩承压除安踏2022H2净利润同比增速较2022H1转正外，除宝胜国际外，各家企业2022H2收入和净利润增速表现均较2022H1承压，我们认为主要受零售环境扰动，使得客流和产品折扣均受到阶段性影响。图：国内运动企业收入增速（%）图：国内运动企业净利润增速（%）安踏体育(左轴)361度(左轴)李宁(左轴)特步国际(左轴)宝胜国际(右轴)250%150%50%4600%3600%2600%1600%600%-50%-150%-250%-350%-400%资料：Wind，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

5多数国内品牌2022下半年业绩承压2022净利率同比均有所下滑，我们判断主要来自产品折扣带来的毛利率减少以及2021年国潮趋势催化下的高基数影响，大部分企业净利率下滑幅度小于毛利率，我们认为主要由于①严格的费用管控、②渠道结构的优化、③政府补贴带来的收益。图：国内运动品牌净利率（%）图：国内运动品牌毛利率（%）安踏体育李宁宝胜国际特步国际361度361度安踏体育李宁宝胜国际特步国际60%50%40%30%20%10%0%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2018201920202021202220182019202020212022资料：Wind，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

6国产品牌2022年均逆势开店国产运动品牌2022年均逆势开店。2022年安踏主品牌/李宁/特步/361度年末店铺分别为9603/7603/7833/7768家，同比净增200/466/503/602家，各家企业在零售环境挑战下保持店铺拓展，体现较强资金实力和对品牌的长期发展信心，我们判断2023零售环境回暖，新店投入产出水平将有明显提升。电商仍为重要增长动力。2022年安踏/李宁/361度电商收入占比基本均在25%以上，在2021年电商收入增速高基数情况下，均保持稳健双位数增长，体现较强品牌力和全渠道运营能力。图：国内运动品牌店铺数量增减幅（家）图：国内运动品牌线上收入增速（%）安踏FILA李宁宝胜国际特步国际361度40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%500300增速占比1002018H1

2018H2

2019H1

2019H2

2020H1

2020H2

2021H1

2021H2

2022H1

2022H2-100-300-500-7000%安踏李宁宝胜国际361度-5%-10%资料：安踏体育/李宁/宝胜国际/特步国际/361度2018-2022年半年报、年报，Wind，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

7国产品牌营运指标稳定，现金产出能力强2022年安踏/李宁/特步国际/361度存货周转天数分别为136.1/56.8/89.2/90.1天，分别同比增加11.2/3.8/12.9/4.2天，在零售环境挑战下基本保持稳定。上述各家企业2022年应付账款天数分别同比变动-2.8/-5.0/+2.6/-0.4天，我们判断部分企业加快向供应商的回款速度，应收账款天数分别同比变动-4.6/+1.0/-13.8/-1.9天。图：国内运动品牌历史存货周转天数（天）图：国内运动品牌企业库存增速（%）60%50%40%30%20%10%0%安踏体育李宁宝胜国际特步国际361度20182019202020212022-10%-20%-30%-40%资料：Wind，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

8国产品牌营运指标稳定，现金产出能力强2022年安踏/李宁/特步国际/361度经营性现金流分别为121/39/6/4亿元，同比变动+2.4%/-40%/-18.4%/+2.2%，货币资金分别为174/74/34/39亿元，在2022年零售环境挑战下，安踏和361度现金流同比微增，李宁/特步国际现金流高基数下有所下滑（21年增速：136.2%/119.1%），我们认为，国产运动品牌在疫情期间展现了较强的现金产出能力。图：国内运动品牌企业历史经营性现金流（亿元）图：国内运动品牌企业历史货币资金（亿元踏体育李宁宝胜国际特步国际361度6040200201720182019202020212022-20资料：Wind，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

99美国通胀压力仍在，服装零售环比22Q4改善2022年7月至今，美国CPI月度增速持续回落，2023年1月、2月、3月CPI月度增速分别为6.4%、6%、5%，整体维持回落的趋势。但3月CPI增速仍高于零售增速，通胀压力仍在。服装方面，2023年1-3月服装CPI增速分别为3.1%、3.3%、3.3%，23Q1平均增速3.2%，略高于服装零售增速，低于运动品零售增速，23Q1服装零售平均增速为3%，运动品平均增速为4.8%，环比22Q4均有所改善（22Q4服装/运动品平均月度增速：2.5%/3.4%)。图：零售额整体增速和整体CPI增速图：食品饮料零售增速和食品饮料CPI增速30%25%20%15%10%5%食品饮料零售增速（%）食品饮料CPI增速（%）零售额整体增速（%）美国CPI整体增速（%）30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%0%-5%-10%-15%图：服装、运动商品零售增速和服装CPI增速图：娱乐零售增速和娱乐CPI增速50%服装零售增速（%）运动品零售增速（%）娱乐零售增速（%)娱乐CPI增速（%）50%30%10%30%10%-10%-30%-50%-70%-10%-30%-50%资料：

Wind

，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

1010个人储蓄有所回暖2022年上半年个人储蓄总额连续6个月下降，6月降至5063亿美元，22Q4至今持续回升，2023年2月回升至9158亿美元，但较2019年同期仍低40.7%，处历史较低水平，我们判断通胀压力仍在持续，居民可选消费意愿或仍将承压。图：美国个人消费支出、个人可支配收入、个人储蓄（十亿美元）图：美国个人消费支出、个人可支配收入、个人储蓄的增速个人消费支出增速（%，左轴）个人可支配收入增速（%，右轴）个人储蓄增速（%，左轴）个人消费支出个人可支配收入个人储蓄250002000015000100005000080%60%40%20%0%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-20%-40%-60%-80%-10%-15%-20%-25%资料：WIND，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

11美国服装零售库销比仍处低位2020年3月疫情爆发后，全球供应链供给持续收缩，截至23年2月，美国零售总计库销比恢复至1.23，仍低于18-19年的中枢水平，同期美国日用品库销比在年中攀升至5年新高，下半年持续回落，2023年2月日用品库销比1.38，美国食品饮料库销比趋近于近5年历史峰值，2022年4月至今始终维持在0.77-0.78的水平。服装方面，23年2月美国零售库销比为2.18，仍低于2017-2019年2.43的中枢水平。图：美国零售总计库销比图：美国服装零售库销比21.5120151050.500图：美国食品饮料库销比图：美国日用品库销比0.920.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.101.510.50资料：

Wind

，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

12海外运动品牌业绩梳理海外运动品牌22H2收入端保持稳定，利润端承压明显。我们梳理了Nike/Adidas/Puma/Deckers/VF/Skechers/Lululemon/Footlocker/Dick’s

Sporting

Goods合计9家头部海外运动企业的最新财报，并发现除Adidas（Yeezy解约事件影响）、VF（Vans增长短期乏力）、Footlocker外，各家企业22H2收入端保持双位数增长，但利润端承压明显。除Deckers外，上述企业22Q4净利润

增

速

在

21

年

高

基

数

影

响

多

数

逐

步

减

弱

的

情

况

下

，

仍

呈

同

比

下

滑

。

我

们

认

为

主

要

来

自

存

货

压

力

带

来

的

促

销

以

及

运

输

成

本

的

明

显

提

升

。Nike/Adidas/Puma/Deckers/VF/Skechers最新季报毛利率分别同比变动-3.3/-1.7/-4.2/+0.6/-1.2/-0.2pct。地区增速表现分化，库存均呈回落趋势。按照已披露的地区数据，除VF集团，各家企业22H2在北美/美洲和EMEA地区的收入增速均保持双位数增长，亚洲地区相对疲弱，我们判断主要来自大中华的影响。欧睿数据显示，2022中国运动服饰市场市占率前10大品牌中，仅New

Balance市占率同比呈上升，增加0.2pct至1.7%，其他国际品牌，包括Nike/Adidas/Skechers市占率同比降1.1/3.8/0.6pct至17%/11.2%/6%。库存方面，各家企业最新财报显示，库存增速均已从峰值回落，但库存额仍相对处近5年高位，我们判断短期库存消化对折扣率的影响仍存。For

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

1322Q4财报利润增速压力大于收入增速表：海外运动品牌历史单季度收入和净利润增速2021Q12019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4Nike7.0%219.5%4.0%-13.0%7.2%25.2%10.2%31.6%5.1%-23.1%38.0%-179.9%-0.6%11.1%8.9%12.2%2.5%71.1%95.5%291.0%15.6%23.5%1.0%6.9%5.0%-3.7%-0.9%-4.6%3.6%-21.7%17.0%0.0%收入增速净利润增长Adidas6.10%17.10%4.7%33.8%9.1%-1.9%11.5%54.2%-19.2%-95.9%-35.0%-159.6%-7.0%-10.7%-5.0%-5.4%20.2%2050.4%51.5%228.4%3.4%70.6%-0.1%35.3%0.6%-11.6%10.2%-24.1%11.4%-64.4%-89.9%-340.8%收入增速净利润增速Puma16.6%40.1%16.9%59.7%19.0%29.7%20.6%55.0%-1.5%-61.6%-32.3%-293.2%7.2%13.0%2.8%38.8%19.2%201.7%91.2%150.9%20.0%26.6%15.8%-68.0%23.5%10.8%26.0%72.5%23.9%1.8%24.3%-82.3%收入增速净利润增速Deckers-1.6%16.3%10.5%-36.4%8.0%4.6%7.4%2.7%-4.9%-32.9%2.3%-58.8%15.0%30.5%14.8%26.8%49.7%107.9%78.2%703.6%15.8%0.5%10.2%-8.8%31.2%105.7%21.8%-6.8%21.2%-0.6%13.3%19.6%收入增速净利润增速Skechers2.1%-7.6%10.9%66.0%15.1%13.6%23.1%25.7%-2.9%-54.9%-42.1%-190.6%-3.6%-37.6%-0.4%-10.4%15.5%133.2%127.8%-337.6%19.2%60.3%24.4%655.0%26.8%18.9%12.4%-34.4%21.1%-16.7%14.0%-81.2%收入增速净利润增速VF集团6.0%-51.0%6.3%-69.3%5.4%28.0%4.9%0.3%-10.8%-475.5%-47.5%-681.6%-18.0%-60.6%-5.8%-25.4%22.8%118.5%103.8%213.7%22.6%80.8%22.0%49.1%9.4%-9.7%3.1%-82.7%-3.7%-125.5%-2.6%-1.9%收入增速净利润增速Lululemon收入增速20.4%28.5%22.1%30.5%22.5%33.4%19.7%36.4%-16.7%-70.4%2.2%-30.6%22.0%14.0%23.8%10.7%88.1%406.3%60.7%139.7%29.8%30.7%23.1%31.7%31.6%31.1%28.8%39.1%28.0%36.0%30.2%-72.4%净利润增长Dick’s

Sporting

Goods0.6%-4.3%3.8%-5.7%5.6%52.2%4.7%-31.9%-30.6%-211.8%20.1%146.0%22.9%207.8%19.8%214.5%118.9%662.4%20.7%79.0%13.9%78.6%7.3%58.0%-7.5%-28.0%-5.0%-35.7%7.7%-28.0%7.3%-32.0%收入增速净利润增速Footlocker4.6%4.2%-0.4%-31.8%3.9%-3.8%-2.2%-10.8%-43.4%-157.0%17.1%-25.0%9.0%112.0%-1.4%-8.2%83.1%283.6%9.5%855.6%3.9%35.1%6.9%-16.3%1.0%-34.2%-9.2%78.1%-0.7%-39.2%-0.3%-81.6%收入增速净利润增长资料：WIND，各家公司2019Q1-2022Q4财报，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

1422Q4净利率普遍下滑表：海外运动品牌历史单季度毛利率和净利率2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4Nike毛利率净利率Adidas45.2%11.5%45.5%9.7%45.7%12.8%44.0%10.8%44.3%8.4%37.3%-11.2%44.8%14.3%43.1%11.1%45.6%14.0%45.8%12.2%46.5%15.3%45.9%11.8%46.6%12.8%45.0%11.8%44.3%11.7%42.9%10.0%毛利率净利率53.6%10.8%53.5%9.7%52.1%10.1%49.0%2.9%49.3%0.5%51.0%-8.8%50.0%9.7%48.7%2.8%51.8%10.5%51.8%8.0%50.1%17.1%49.0%4.1%49.9%9.2%50.3%5.5%49.1%5.4%39.1%-9.9%Puma毛利率净利率Deckers毛利率净利率Skechers毛利率净利率49.0%7.2%49.3%4.1%49.7%6.8%47.3%1.2%47.6%2.8%43.9%47.0%7.2%48.0%1.6%48.5%7.1%47.5%3.1%47.4%7.6%48.2%0.4%47.2%6.3%46.5%4.2%46.8%6.2%44.0%0.1%-11.5%51.5%13.1%47.0%-7.0%50.4%14.4%54.1%21.5%51.5%4.3%50.3%-2.8%51.2%16.3%57.0%23.7%53.2%6.0%51.6%9.5%50.9%14.1%52.3%19.6%48.7%9.4%48.0%7.3%48.2%11.6%53.0%20.7%46.3%8.5%48.5%6.0%48.2%7.6%47.9%4.5%44.1%4.0%50.5%-9.3%48.1%4.9%48.9%4.0%47.8%8.0%51.4%9.7%49.6%6.6%48.6%24.4%45.3%7.5%48.1%5.7%41.7%4.6%48.4%4.0%VF集团毛利率50.3%4.0%56.3%2.4%54.2%20.4%57.2%14.7%53.1%-23.0%52.9%-26.5%50.8%9.8%54.7%11.7%52.1%3.5%52.7%14.8%53.7%14.5%56.1%14.3%52.2%2.9%54.1%2.5%51.4%-3.8%54.9%14.4%净利率Lululemon毛利率53.9%12.3%55.0%14.1%55.1%13.8%36.6%21.3%51.3%4.4%54.2%9.6%56.1%12.9%56.0%19.1%57.1%11.8%58.1%14.3%57.2%12.9%58.1%20.4%53.9%11.8%56.5%15.5%55.9%13.8%57.4%4.3%净利率Dick’s

Sporting

Goods毛利率净利率29.4%3.0%30.0%5.0%29.6%2.7%28.1%3.4%16.5%-4.8%34.5%10.2%34.9%7.3%33.7%7.0%37.3%12.4%39.9%15.1%38.5%11.5%37.6%10.3%36.5%9.6%36.0%10.2%34.2%7.7%32.4%6.6%Footlocker毛利率33.2%8.3%30.1%3.4%32.1%6.5%31.5%6.3%23.0%-8.3%25.9%2.2%30.9%12.6%33.1%5.6%34.8%9.4%35.1%9.4%34.7%7.2%33.0%4.5%34.0%6.1%31.7%4.6%32.0%4.4%30.1%0.8%净利率资料：WIND，各家公司2019Q1-2022Q4财报，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

15欧美地区增速仍较强，亚太地区收入承压从2022年各季度相较2019年同期复合增速来看，各品牌在欧美地区增速较强，其中Lululemon、Deckers在美洲地区四个季度维持双位数以上复合增长，Puma在美洲和EMEA地区四个季度维持双位数以上复合增长，19Q4-22Q4

Adidas在北美/EMEA地区收入复合增速分别为1.4%/3.7%，Nike分别为13.6%/11.2%。行业角度看，美国运动品行业在去年高基数情况下22Q4零售额增速仍表现出较强韧性，10月、11月、12月零售额增速分别为2.8%、2.4%、5%（21年10/11/12月：15.5%/23.1%/16.3%），优质品牌在通过自身品牌力和渠道管理能力持续跑赢行业。其他地区看，主要受大中华疫情影响，各品牌APAC收入增速均明显承压。表：海外运动品牌2019-2022单季度分地区收入复合增速22Q122Q222Q322Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4AdidasNike北美地区Asia-PacificLatin

America6.6%-38.2%3.7%12.0%-33.5%8.4%6.0%-34.8%15.9%-11.7%2.4%1.4%-32.0%4.6%北美地区EMEA0.6%4.5%7.1%9.8%8.7%6.3%13.6%11.2%-1.1%2.9%大中华地区APLA10.8%3.8%-2.7%6.8%-0.5%4.5%大中华地区EMEA-9.0%-1.4%-15.7%3.6

%-24.3%3.7%LululemonUnitedStatesCanadaPuma25.7%25.6%37.0%27.2%22.6%40.5%25.3%19.2%42.3%24.8%19.9%38.2%EMEA12.2%25.1%-1.2%16.3%26.7%4.1%18.6%23.2%4.4%15.8%20.8%2.0%AmericasAsia-PacificDeckersOutside

ofAmericaFootlocker美国1.5%5.2%4.0%1.7%America27.4%14.8%32.0%28.0%19.9%11.9%12.0%14.4%Dick'sSportingGoods美国International12.0%11.3%14.7%11.3%资料：WIND，各家公司2019Q1-2022Q4财报，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

1622Q4受库存清理影响批发增速放缓渠道方面，22Q4除VF外，各家批发及DTC收入均取得正增长，其中DTC增速普遍高于批发，除Puma外各家公司22Q4批发收入增速环比放缓，我们分析库存清理的促销活动一定程度影响了批发业务的增速。表：海外运动品牌历史单季度分渠道收入增速2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4NikeWholesaleDTC5.0%2.3%4.0%8.0%15.0%年度2.0%-48.1.0%-16.9%-7.0%12.0%-2.0%32.0%年度-8.0%20.0%113.1%73.0%9.0%-5.0%9.0%年度-1.0%15.0%-6.6%7.0%1.0%8.0%30.0%25.0%年度14.0%11.0%14.0%11.0%28.0%AdidasWholesaleDTC-20.2%24.1%51.0%-26.2%4.1%4.5%-15.6%8.0%12.5%-0.8%4.0%-2.4%6.6%2.0%8.5%13.2%13.0%3.0%6.0%8.0%1.0%2.0%4.0%18.0%34.0%31.0%43.0%E-Com

40.0%Puma37.0%14.0%35.0%93.0%53.0%-14.0%WholesaleDTC13.8%21.5%14.5%21.3%15.0%22.0%-17.5%-8.5%12.3%16.7%4.0%6.4%24.3%31.3%114.2%54.7%22.6%13.3%35.0%22.8%23.3%7.1%22.6%5.5%19.9%6.5%28.2%13.1%DeckersWholesaleDTC6.4%10.7%10.0%8.7%5.1%8.9%5.6%-2.9%-7.9%-27.1%74.2%1.8%6.2%41.4%63.0%140.3%14.7%20.7%2.8%7.3%37.6%22.2%24.7%15.4%16.7%15.4%8.0%-11.8%74.2%25.7%13.4%18.7%SkechersWholesaleDTC24.8%19.4%-9.1%19.7%-54.9%-14.2%-10.9%13.1%-22.9%53.7%6.4%149.9%101.5%12.1%33.1%25.9%22.8%32.7%15.7%18.3%4.3%26.2%11.9%15.7%10.8%14.4%13.3%35.9%VF集团WholesaleDTC5.0%8.0%2.0%3.0%3.0%7.0%-11.0%-11.0%-55.0%-37.0%-19.0%-17.0%-10.0%-2.0%14.0%36.0%111.0%97.0%17.0%32.0%14.0%30.0%16.0%1.1%12.6%-6.9%-4.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.2%14.0%11.0%Lululemon直营门店DTC14.5%24.8%16.7%23.1%17.7%23.2%12.2%25.8%-48.7%67.8%-50.8%154.7%-11.7%93.9%-27.8%94.0%106.4%54.8%142.0%7.8%38.2%22.6%47.1%16.6%36.3%32.3%29.9%29.8%27.7%30.8%15.0%37.0%资料：各家公司2019Q1-2022Q4财报，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

172022年末库存水平仍处高位2022年末各家公司库存仍处高位，其中Deckers、Skechers、Lululemon、Dick’s

Sporting

Goods和FootLockers库存增速环比2022H1有所回落，总体来看，各公司仍处在库存清理阶段。表：海外运动品牌历史库存情况20162017H120172018H120182019H120192020H120202021H120212022H12022Nike库存额(亿美元）

50.3增速50.64.6%53.36.0%52.64.0%53.91.1%56.26.9%62.015.1%73.731.0%60.9-1.8%68.5-7.0%65.16.8%84.222.8%93.343.3%Adidas库存额(亿欧元）

37.6增速36.43.7%36.9-2.0%34.3-6.0%34.4-6.7%35.84.5%40.918.6%52.145.7%44.07.6%40.5-22.2%40.1-8.8%54.835.2%59.749.0%Puma库存额(亿欧元）增速Deckers库存额(亿美元）增速Skechers库存额(亿美元）增速7.23.77.08.510.8%7.88.3%8.94.7%9.217.6%10.619.4%11.121.3%12.921.2%11.42.5%13.97.7%14.931.1%19.842.9%22.550.4%4.4-5.9%4.06.1%4.4-1.4%3.4-13.7%4.78.7%3.77.0%4.3-8.1%3.1-16.6%4.65.2%5.580.4%8.483.4%7.231.3%6.713.4%8.724.6%8.222.8%8.6-1.1%8.64.0%10.723.9%10.320.1%10.2-5.0%10.62.9%14.744.7%15.647.9%18.223.6%VF库存额(亿美元）

14.2增速16.6-0.3%17.119.7%19.919.9%14.0-17.8%13.8-30.7%15.611.7%14.01.5%10.8-31.2%12.2-13.3%12.919.6%23.492.4%25.9101.4%Lululemon库存额(亿美元）增速3.03.214.1%3.310.4%3.924.1%4.022.8%4.920.6%5.221.9%6.736.1%6.524.8%7.917.4%9.749.3%14.685.1%14.549.8%Dick’sSportingGoods库存额(亿美元）增速19.217.118.0-6.4%18.26.6%21.419.0%22.020.7%18.8-12.2%19.5-11.3%20.17.2%23.017.6%30.049.0%28.323.2%FootLocker库存额(亿美元）

13.1增速12.9-3.7%12.8-2.3%12.5-3.1%12.69-0.9%12.3-1.6%12.1-4.6%11.9-3.3%9.2-24.0%10.8-9.2%12.738.0%16.451.9%16.429.1%资料：各家公司2016-2022年年报及半年报，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

18全年业绩指引梳理Nike、Deckers上调FY2023收入指引，VF集团在FY23Q3财报中上调The

North

Face收入增速，在6家新发布2023年业绩指引的公司中，Skechers、Lululemon预计EPS将取得双位数增长。收入方面，北美运动消费需求仍稳定，自身具备成长逻辑的品牌有能力保持高速增长，2023年随着中国防疫放开，收入增速有望进一步抬升。利润方面，年初随着各品牌清理库存，相较收入仍可能承压，后续随着库存压力减小、大中华区零售环境改善，盈利水平有望改善。资料：各公司2022Q1-2022Q4财报，各公司官网，HTIFor

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

19风险提示

全球零售环境疲软

数字化渠道整合不及预期

消费偏好变化For

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

20APPENDIX

1Summary

The

inventory

level

of

oversea

sports

brands

has

shown

decline

trend,

while

theinventory

value

still

maintains

high

level.

We

think

the

inventory

clearing

policy

wouldaffect

the

discount

rate

in

the

short

term.

The

22Q4

net

profit

margins

of

oversea

sports

brands

were

under

pressure,

whichmainly

came

from

the

promotion&

inventory

clearing

policy

and

increase

oftransportation

costs

in

our

view.

The

competitiveness

of

domestic

sports

brands

got

further

enhanced

and

the

marketshare

in

2022

got

clear

improvement.

The

22H2

performance

of

domestic

sports

brands

was

affected

by

the

retailenvironment.

The

extent

of

decline

of

net

profit

margin

was

lower

than

that

grossmargin.

We

think

the

strict

expense

control,

optimalization

of

channel

structure,governmental

subsidies

helped

to

stabilized

the

gross

profit.

Risks:

weak

global

retail

environment,

the

integration

of

digital

channels

belowexpectations,

and

change

of

customer

preference.For

full

disclosure

of

risks,

valuation

methodologies

and

target

price

formation

on

all

HTI

ratedstocks,

please

refer

to

the

latestfull

report

on

our

website

at

21APPENDIX

2重要信息披露本研究报告由(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，国际分销，国际是由国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited

(HSIPL)，Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.

(HTIJKK)和国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。国际证券有限公司IMPORTANT

DISCLOSURESThis

research

report

is

distributed

by

Haitong

International,

a

global

brand

name

for

the

equity

research

teams

of

Haitong

International

Research

Limited

(“HTIRL”),

Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited(“HSIPL”),

Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.

(“HTIJKK”),

Haitong

International

Securities

Company

Limited

(“HTISCL”),

and

any

other

members

within

the

Haitong

International

Securities

Group

of

Companies(“HTISG”),

each

authorized

to

engage

in

securities

activities

in

its

respective

jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证Analyst

Certification:我，盛开，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Kai

Sheng,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subjectcompanies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.我，梁希，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Xi

Liang,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subject

companiesor

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

research

report;

and

thatI

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,

will

not

deal

inor

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.我，周梦轩，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Mengxuan

Zhou,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subjectcompanies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.我，丁贝渝，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的2

2家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,

Beiyu

Ding,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subjectcompanies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.APPENDIX

2利益冲突披露Conflict

ofInterestDisclosures国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTI

and

some

of

its

affiliates

may

engage

in

investment

banking

and

/

or

serve

as

a

market

maker

or

hold

proprietary

trading

positions

of

certain

stocks

orcompanies

in

this

research

report.

As

far

as

this

research

report

is

concerned,

the

following

are

the

disclosure

matters

related

to

such

relationship

(As

the

followingdisclosure

does

not

ensure

timeliness

and

completeness,

please

send

an

email

to

ERD-Disclosure@

if

timely

and

comprehensive

information

is

needed).23APPENDIX

2评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本

–

TOP