(完整版)敏感性分析计算

,不确定因素,变化率,内部收益率,敏感度系数,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,%,%,%,,,,,,,,,,,,

,基本,0.00%,14.83,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,投资,10.00%,13.23,0.16,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,5.00%,14.04,0.158,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,-5.00%,15.73,0.18,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,-10.00%,16.7,0.187,,,,,,,,,,,,

,销售,10.00%,16.52,0.169,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,5.00%,15.68,0.17,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,-5.00%,13.96,0.174,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,-10.00%,13.06,0.177,,,,,,,,,,,,

,费用,10.00%,9.14,0.569,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,5.00%,12.11,0.544,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,-5.00%,17.37,0.508,,,,,,,,,,,,

,,-10.00%,19.76,0.493,,,,,,,,,,,,

,项目投资现金流量表(万元),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

,年限,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

,年度,2016年,2017年,2018年,2019年,2020年,2021年,2022年,2023年,2024年,2025年,2026年,2027年,2028年,2029年,2030年

,业务收入,1350.00,1552.50,1707.75,1844.37,1955.03,2072.33,2196.67,2328.47,2468.18,2616.27,2773.25,2939.65,3116.03,3302.99,3501.17

,产品成本,769.50,884.93,973.42,1051.29,1114.37,1181.23,1252.10,1327.23,1406.86,1491.27,1580.75,1675.60,1776.14,1882.70,1995.67

,费用,409.05,470.41,517.45,558.84,592.37,627.92,665.59,705.53,747.86,792.73,840.29,890.71,944.16,1000.81,1060.85

,税金及附加,36.45,41.92,46.11,49.80,52.79,55.95,59.31,62.87,66.64,70.64,74.88,79.37,84.13,89.18,94.53

,利润,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

基本,利润,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

1200,15%,0.87,0.756,0.658,0.572,0.497,0.432,0.376,0.327,0.284,0.247,0.215,0.187,0.163,0.141,0.123

,1187.83,117.45,117.37,112.37,105.5,97.16,89.52,82.59,76.14,70.1,64.62,59.62,54.97,50.79,46.57,43.06

,,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

,14%,0.877,0.769,0.675,0.592,0.519,0.456,0.4,0.351,0.308,0.27,0.237,0.208,0.182,0.16,0.14

,1259.93,118.4,119.39,115.27,109.19,101.47,94.5,87.87,81.73,76.02,70.64,65.73,61.14,56.71,52.85,49.02

,内部收益率,14.83%,,,,,,,,14.82%,,,,,,

投资10%,利润,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

1320,14%,0.877,0.769,0.675,0.592,0.519,0.456,0.4,0.351,0.308,0.27,0.237,0.208,0.182,0.16,0.14

,1259.93,118.4,119.39,115.27,109.19,101.47,94.5,87.87,81.73,76.02,70.64,65.73,61.14,56.71,52.85,49.02

,,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

,13%,0.885,0.783,0.693,0.613,0.543,0.48,0.425,0.376,0.333,0.295,0.261,0.231,0.204,0.181,0.16

,1338.02,119.48,121.56,118.35,113.06,106.16,99.47,93.36,87.55,82.19,77.18,72.38,67.91,63.57,59.78,56.02

,内部收益率,13.23%,,,,,,,,11.83%,,,,,,

投资5%,利润,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

1260,15%,0.87,0.756,0.658,0.572,0.497,0.432,0.376,0.327,0.284,0.247,0.215,0.187,0.163,0.141,0.123

,1187.83,117.45,117.37,112.37,105.5,97.16,89.52,82.59,76.14,70.1,64.62,59.62,54.97,50.79,46.57,43.06

,,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

,13%,0.885,0.783,0.693,0.613,0.543,0.48,0.425,0.376,0.333,0.295,0.261,0.231,0.204,0.181,0.16

,1338.02,119.48,121.56,118.35,113.06,106.16,99.47,93.36,87.55,82.19,77.18,72.38,67.91,63.57,59.78,56.02

,内部收益率,14.04%,,,,,,,,13.23%,,,,,,

投资-5%,利润,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

1140,16%,0.862,0.743,0.641,0.552,0.476,0.41,0.354,0.305,0.263,0.227,0.195,0.168,0.145,0.125,0.108

,1121.86,116.37,115.35,109.47,101.81,93.06,84.97,77.76,71.02,64.91,59.39,54.08,49.39,45.18,41.29,37.81

,,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

,15%,0.87,0.756,0.658,0.572,0.497,0.432,0.376,0.327,0.284,0.247,0.215,0.187,0.163,0.141,0.123

,1187.83,117.45,117.37,112.37,105.5,97.16,89.52,82.59,76.14,70.1,64.62,59.62,54.97,50.79,46.57,43.06

,内部收益率,15.73%,,,,,,,,16.49%,,,,,,

投资-10%,利润,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

1080,17%,0.855,0.731,0.624,0.534,0.456,0.39,0.333,0.285,0.243,0.208,0.178,0.152,0.13,0.111,0.095

,1062.32,115.43,113.49,106.56,98.49,89.15,80.82,73.15,66.36,59.98,54.42,49.36,44.68,40.51,36.66,33.26

,,135.00,155.25,170.78,184.44,195.50,207.23,219.67,232.85,246.82,261.63,277.33,293.97,311.60,330.30,350.12

,16%,0.862,0.743,0.641,0.552,0.476,0.41,0.354,0.305,0.263,0.227,0.195,0.168,0.145,0.125,0.108

,1121.86,116.37,115.35,109.47,101.81,93.06,84.97,77.76,71.02,64.91,59.39,54.08,49.39,45.18,41.29,37.81

,内部收益率,16.70%,,,,,,,,18.95%,,,,,,

销售10%,利润,148.50,170.78,187.85,202.88,215.05,227.96,241.63,256.13,271.50,287.79,305.06,323.36,342.76,363.33,385.13

1200,17%,0.855,0.731,0.624,0.534,0.456,0.39,0.333,0.285,0.243,0.208,0.178,0.152,0.13,0.111,0.095

,1168.55,126.97,124.84,117.22,108.34,98.06,88.9,80.46,73,65.97,59.86,54.3,49.15,44.56,40.33,36.59

,,148.50,170.78,187.85,202.88,215.05,227.96,241.63,256.13,271.50,287.79,305.06,323.36,342.76,363.33,385.13

,16%,0.862,0.743,0.641,0.552,0.476,0.41,0.354,0.305,0.263,0.227,0.195,0.168,0.145,0.125,0.108

,1234.04,128.01,126.89,120.41,111.99,102.37,93.46,85.54,78.12,71.4,65.33,59.49,54.32,49.7,45.42,41.59

,内部收益率,16.52%,,,,,,,,18.13%,,,,,,

销售5%,利润,141.75,163.01,179.31,193.66,205.28,217.59,230.65,244.49,259.16,274.71,291.19,308.66,327.18,346.81,367.62

1200,16%,0.862,0.743,0.641,0.552,0.476,0.41,0.354,0.305,0.263,0.227,0.195,0.168,0.145,0.125,0.108

,1177.94,122.19,121.12,114.94,106.9,97.71,89.21,81.65,74.57,68.16,62.36,56.78,51.86,47.44,43.35,39.7

,,141.75,163.01,179.31,193.66,205.28,217.59,230.65,244.49,259.16,274.71,291.19,308.66,327.18,346.81,367.62

,15%,0.87,0.756,0.658,0.572,0.497,0.432,0.376,0.327,0.284,0.247,0.215,0.187,0.163,0.141,0.123

,1247.24,123.32,123.24,117.99,110.77,102.02,94,86.72,79.95,73.6,67.85,62.61,57.72,53.33,48.9,45.22

,内部收益率,15.68%,,,,,,,,16.52%,,,,,,

销售-5%,利润,128.25,147.49,162.24,175.22,185.73,196.87,208.68,221.20,234.48,248.55,263.46,279.27,296.02,313.78,332.61

1200,14%,0.877,0.769,0.675,0.592,0.519,0.456,0.4,0.351,0.308,0.27,0.237,0.208,0.182,0.16,0.14

,1196.93,112.48,113.42,109.51,103.73,96.39,89.77,83.47,77.64,72.22,67.11,62.44,58.09,53.88,50.21,46.57

,,128.25,147.49,162.24,175.22,185.73,196.87,208.68,221.20,234.48,248.55,263.46,279.27,296.02,313.78,332.61

,13%,0.885,0.783,0.693,0.613,0.543,0.48,0.425,0.376,0.333,0.295,0.261,0.231,0.204,0.181,0.16

,1271.1,113.5,115.48,112.43,107.41,100.85,94.5,88.69,83.17,78.08,73.32,68.76,64.51,60.39,56.79,53.22

,内部收益率,13.96%,,,,,,,,13.06%,,,,,,

销售-10%,利润,121.50,139.73,153.70,165.99,175.95,186.51,197.70,209.56,222.14,235.46,249.59,264.57,280.44,297.27,315.11

1200,14%,0.877,0.769,0.675,0.592,0.519,0.456,0.4,0.351,0.308,0.27,0.237,0.208,0.182,0.16,0.14

,1133.93,106.56,107.45,103.75,98.27,91.32,85.05,79.08,73.56,68.42,63.58,59.15,55.03,51.04,47.56,44.11

,,121.50,139.73,153.70,165.99,175.95,186.51,197.70,209.56,222.14,235.46,249.59,264.57,280.44,297.27,315.11

,13%,0.885,0.783,0.693,0.613,0.543,0.48,0.425,0.376,0.333,0.295,0.261,0.231,0.204,0.181,0.16

,1204.2,107.53,109.4,106.51,101.75,95.54,89.52,84.02,78.8,73.97,69.46,65.14,61.12,57.21,53.81,50.42

,内部收益率,13.06%,,,,,,,,11.19%,,,,,,

费用10%,利润,94.10,108.21,119.03,128.55,136.27,144.44,153.11,162.29,172.03,182.35,193.30,204.89,217.19,230.22,244.03

1200,10%,0.909,0.826,0.751,0.683,0.621,0.564,0.513,0.467,0.424,0.386,0.35,0.319,0.29,0.263,0.239

,1130.7,85.53,89.38,89.39,87.8,84.62,81.46,78.54,75.79,72.94,70.39,67.65,65.36,62.98,60.55,58.32

,,94.10,108.21,119.03,128.55,136.27,144.44,153.11,162.29,172.03,182.35,193.30,204.89,217.19,230.22,244.03

,9%,0.917,0.842,0.772,0.708,0.65,0.596,0.547,0.502,0.46,0.422,0.388,0.356,0.326,0.299,0.275

,1210.96,86.29,91.11,91.89,91.02,88.57,86.09,83.75,81.47,79.13,76.95,75,72.94,70.8,68.84,67.11

,内部收益率,9.14%,,,,,,,,1.80%,,,,,,

费用5%,利润,114.55,131.73,144.90,156.49,165.88,175.84,186.39,197.57,209.43,221.99,235.31,249.43,264.40,280.26,297.07

1200,13%,0.885,0.783,0.693,0.613,0.543,0.48,0.425,0.376,0.333,0.295,0.261,0.231,0.204,0.181,0.16

,1135.31,101.37,103.14,100.42,95.93,90.08,84.4,79.21,74.29,69.74,65.49,61.42,57.62,53.94,50.73,47.53

,,114.55,131.73,144.90,156.49,165.88,175.84,186.39,197.57,209.43,221.99,235.31,249.43,264.40,280.26,297.07

,12%,0.893,0.797,0.712,0.636,0.567,0.507,0.452,0.404,0.361,0.322,0.287,0.257,0.229,0.205,0.183

,1208.33,102.29,104.99,103.17,99.53,94.06,89.15,84.25,79.82,75.6,71.48,67.53,64.1,60.55,57.45,54.36

,内部收益率,12.11%,,,,,,,,9.13%,,,,,,

费用-10%,利润,155.45,178.77,196.65,212.38,225.12,238.63,252.95,268.12,284.21,301.26,319.34,338.50,358.81,380.34,403.16

1200,18%,0.847,0.718,0.609,0.516,0.437,0.37,0.314,0.266,0.225,0.191,0.162,0.137,0.116,0.099,0.084

,1159.53,131.67,128.36,119.76,109.59,98.38,88.29,79.43,71.32,63.95,57.54,51.73,46.37,41.62,37.65,33.87

,,155.45,178.77,196.65,