化工-行业周报：北上广深执行“认房不认贷”俄罗斯对化肥出口征收关税化肥、萤石、钛白粉、橡胶助剂等价格上涨

证券研究报告工证券研究报告工96工昆股份技金禾实业97斯特0136相关报告报——七部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案》，纯碱、钛白粉、橡胶助剂、磷肥等价格上涨 (20230821-20230827)》北上广深执行“认房不认贷”，俄罗斯对化肥出口征收关税化肥、萤石、钛白粉、橡胶助剂等价格上涨 投资要点本周化工与新材料行业回顾房城乡建设部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发了《关于优化个人住房贷款中住房套数认定标准的通知》，推动落实购买首套房贷款“认房不用认贷”政策措施。此项政策作为政策工具，纳入“一城一策”工具箱，供城市自主选用。截至本周，北上广深全部官宣执行“认房不认贷”城市陆续落地。“认房不认贷”，即居民家庭(包括借款人、配偶及未成年子女)申请贷款购买商品住房时，家庭成员在当地名下无成套住房的，不论是否已利用贷款购买过住房，银行业金融机构均按首套住房执行住房信贷政策。政策发力刺激下，有望提振房地产市场信心，建议关注聚氨酯、值的7%，具体税率(即每吨卢布的最低税率)根据肥料的类型(氮肥、钾肥、磷肥/复合肥)而有所不同，分别为1100卢布/吨、1800卢布/吨和2100卢布/吨。对高成本水溶性磷肥磷酸二铵和磷酸一铵免征关税。自23.5%。俄罗斯是全球重要的化肥生产国和出口国，征收关税或抬升全球肥料价格中枢，建议重点关注氮肥、磷肥、钾肥价格情况。+1.7pcts和+0.7pcts)，制造业生产扩张力度有所增强，市场需求景气度继分别为+0.4pcts和+4.5pcts)，均低于临界点，新出口订单环比增长，表明国内外市场需求有所改善。(3)主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别上升至56.5%和52%(月环比分别+7.8pcts和+7.0pcts)，制造业产品销售S003jijin@S003liumenglanxyzqcomcnS006请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-/吨(与上月持平)；纯MDI挂牌价24500元/吨(月环比+0.8pcts)；MDI价18200元/吨(月环比+2.2pcts)。上MDIpcts。NYHub市场价)，26.5%；氯化钾(60%粉,青海)，18.2%；铁锂正极材料，-9.3%；氢氧化锂(电池级，四川)，-7.6%；碳酸锂(工中短期投资策略23Q2主动管理型公募基金重仓持股中基础化工重仓占比4.85%(季度环比-1.02pcts，季度同比-1.88pcts)，石油石化重仓占比0.58%(季度环比-0.44pcts，季度同比-0.48pcts)。站在当前时点，化企龙头在产品盈业绩测算来看，该估值仍具有强安全边际，化企核心资产配置性价比持塑关键力量，万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工等。政策刺激、需求向好背景下，化工品盈利至暗时刻已过，基础化工品盈利存修复之动力，但考虑到历经两年景气周期，中观维度在建工程正欲本周基础化工品价格概况当前市场进入集中发运阶段，经销商提货积极性较高，复合肥厂家继续请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-存较多，近期仍以消化库存为主，上调5.78pcts，气头开工率75.85%，环比下降3.72pcts。本周新增停车减量企业有：江苏华昌、宁夏和宁、新疆心连心、新疆晋煤中能、内蒙古博增量的企业有：东北吉林长山、河南骏马、山西天泽及山西兰花，日影销商提货积极性较高，且下游开工小幅提升，对原料的采购需求有所增价国内整体开工无明显波动，前期部分检修小厂暂未复产，后期市场放货无过货，续紧俏，求方面，下游硫酸钾曼海姆开工小幅提升，市场采购量增加，复合肥需求有所增0%粉,青海)价格为2660元/吨，周环比上涨18.2%。装置开工暂稳，华东及华中地区本周开工小幅回升，西南华南地区开工低迷，酸级萤石粉货源稀少，场内供应紧张程度愈演愈烈，致使近期萤石持货商提价惜售意愿强烈，周内报价接连上调。需求方面，本周萤石下游走势上扬，萤石需求转好，场内询价气氛热烈。本周萤石粉(湿粉,修状态静待九月。原料方面，受国家政策以及环保影响，当前国内萤石原矿供应低迷难改，周内报价接连上调。需求方面，下游市场按配额采购，备货情绪回暖，货源呈现南紧无压力，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4-力；加之企业库存不多，因此新单报价坚挺，行情继续推高。需求方面，本周半钢胎开工小幅提升，全钢胎开工下滑。本周防老剂部暂停，国内其他区域主流矿企正常开采为主，开采仅维系原有订单发货，部分矿企库存处于低位，市场供应逐渐紧张。需求方面，本周下游磷肥价格持续高走，市场现货供应趋紧，厂家拿货情绪高涨，对矿石需求持续旺盛。本周磷矿石(30%,贵州)价格为900元/吨，周环比上涨供应方面，华中地区部分厂家继续释放产能，日产量增加，甘肃瓮福磷停运阶段，经销商提货积极性较高，主产区大厂开工多保持在中等偏高负时停车检修，复产时间待定。本周二铵行业周度开工68.01%，环比下主流地区华北，华东等地刚需采购。市场货源供应紧张，新单成交多以小单为主。本周磷酸一铵(55%粉,江苏)和磷酸二铵(64%,长三角)价格分企业开工普遍正常，供应端延续增量。基本上各生产企业九月的订单都市场局部报盘延续向上。需求方面，本周整体国内需求尚佳，出口情况际需求还未进入到明显的增量过程中。本周钛白粉(金红石型,华东)、氯14200元/吨。氯化法钛白粉-金红石矿价差和金红石型钛白粉-钛精矿价重点公司：万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工、中国巨石、桐昆股份、华峰化学、恒力石化、卫星化学、金禾实业、新和成、国瓷材料、东请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5-科技、昊华科技、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、福斯特、天赐材料、新宙风险提示：化工产品需求不达预期的风险，国际油价大幅下跌的风实不力的风险。 录 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-6- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-7- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-8- -9-行业周报表1、重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差大类产品单单位更新日期本周上周周涨幅上月同期月涨幅上季度同期季度涨幅年初年内涨幅指数中国化工品价格指数中国化工品价格指数CCPI-人民币对美元汇率(中间价人民币对美元汇率(中间价)-人民币对欧元汇率(中间价)---美元指数SS&P500-黄黄金现货价美元/盎司CRBCRB商品价格指数-货货代运价指数CFFI:中国-欧洲-货代运价指数CFFI:中国-北美-2023/09/014846479546274.7%429112.9%47821.3%2023/09/017.17887.18837.14180.5%7.11150.9%6.89124.2%2023/09/017.88157.85100.4%7.85630.3%7.6697.6692103.562.8%7.25358.7%2023/09/01103.63104.19-0.5%102.001.6%103.91-0.3%2023/09/014507.664405.712.3%4478.030.7%4298.864.9%3895.0815.7%2023/09/011942.301915.501.4%1942.450.0%1960.30-0.9%1852.204.9%2023/09/01552.84550.780.4%557.83-0.9%545.871.3%554.33-0.3%2023/09/01233523350.0%2533-7.8%28183243-28.0%2023/09/01312631260.0%31260.0%30821.4%4101-23.8%WTI期货(主连合约)Brent期货(主连合约)WTI期货(次月合约)Brent期货(次月合约)WTI期货(第12月合约)Brent期货(第12月合约)美元/桶2023/09/0183.6379.055.8%81.552.6%71.2917.3%73.6713.5%美元美元/桶2023/09/0186.8683.364.2%85.142.0%75.9614.3%78.6910.4%美元/桶2023/09/0182.9678.665.5%81.082.3%71.4473.9212.2%美元美元/桶2023/09/0186.8382.924.7%84.692.5%75.8414.5%78.8210.2%美元/桶2023/09/0177.4074.983.2%76.381.3%68.1813.5%72.616.6%美元美元/桶2023/09/0184.3781.104.0%82.811.9%73.8614.2%77.958.2%WTI现货Brent现货美元/桶2023/09/0183.6379.74.9%81.552.6%71.2917.3%73.6713.5%美元美元/桶2023/09/0187.4183.9254.2%85.532.2%75.2677.4512.9%原油Dubai现货Cinta现货美国原油钻井数美国商业原油库存Brent-WTI期货主连合约价差WTI主连合约-次月合约Brent主连合约-次月合约WTI主连合约-第12月合约Brent主连合约-第12月合约三地原油简单10天平移均价美元/桶2023/09/0187.1585.192.3%83.923.8%75.914.8%73.9917.8%美元美元/桶2023/09/0182.9480.493.0%79.853.9%72.5414.3%73.6912.6%口2023/09/015125120.0%525-2.5%556-7.9%618千千桶2023/09/01422944433528-2.4%439771-3.8%459205-7.9%4206460.5%美元/桶2023/09/013.234.311%3.594.67-30.8%5.02-35.7%美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/09/010.670.3971.8%0.4742.6%0.12--0.25-2023/09/010.030.44-93.2%0.45-93.3%-75.0%-美元美元/桶2023/09/016.234.075.1720.5%3.11100.3%1.06487.7%美元/桶2023/09/012.492.2610.3%2.336.6%2.1018.5%0.74235.9%美元美元/桶2023/09/0184.3784.86-0.6%81.563.4%73.4015.0%78.207.9%中国92#汽油(镇海炼化)中国0#柴油(镇海炼化)元/吨2023/09/01991199110.0%95983.3%91278.6%94664.7%元元/吨2023/09/01830083000.0%80153.6%75859.4%7895美国87#汽油美国柴油(纽约)美分/加仑2023/09/01276287-4.0%278-0.8%25010.5%24313.5%美分美分/加仑2023/09/013113173080.9%24029.8%316炼油欧洲ARA柴油(CIF)亚洲柴油(新加坡)美元/吨2023/09/01899921-2.4%91169529.2%8881.2%美元美元/桶2023/09/015.2%9226.8%3.3%92#汽油新加坡FOB含硫0.05%柴油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/09/010203957.5%9013.6%8618.7%美元美元/桶2023/09/01-0.6%9225.2%077.2%航空煤油新加坡FOB新加坡石脑油FOB美元/桶2023/09/01-0.4%5.0%9128.6%097.5%美元美元/桶2023/09/0171.1170.650.7%69.751.9%60.1118.3%65.538.5%日本石脑油CFR美元/吨2023/09/016666600.9%6384.4%56817.3%6305.7%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-10-行业周报丁烷(华东冷冻CFR)元/吨混调高硫180CST(华东)重交沥青(华南)丙丁烷(华东冷冻CFR)元/吨混调高硫180CST(华东)重交沥青(华南)丙烷(华东冷冻CFR)美元/吨正丁烷(山东)120#溶剂油(华东)元/吨58#半炼石蜡(华南)元/吨元/吨美元/吨美元/吨美元/吨美元/吨美元/吨美元/桶美元/吨基础油(150SN,东北)元/吨元/吨美元/吨国内主营汽油出厂价-原油价差国内主营柴油出厂价-原油价差美元/吨国内主营成品油价-原油价差国际汽油市场价-原油价差美元/吨国际柴油市场价-原油价差国际成品油市场价-WTI原油价差美元/吨国际成品油市场价-Brent原油价差新加坡FOB汽油价-Brent原油价差美元/吨新加坡FOB柴油价-Brent原油价差新加坡FOB航空煤油价-Brent原油价差美元/桶美湾WTI321价差美湾Brent321价差美元/桶亚洲Minas321价差美元/桶中东Dubai321价差%中国沥青开工率美分/加仑美国LPG液化气(华东)元/液化气(华东)元/吨元/吨改性沥青(华南改性沥青(华南)美美国炼厂开工率%2023/09/0169674.2%73-5.6%6015.3%73-4.7%2023/09/0156005750-2.6%53504.7%47005630-0.5%22023/09/012023/09/0166661672626276305.4%636346244.3%49949948932.5%616126278.0%6.7%7.7%37.4%7.2%22023/09/012023/09/01507550758500536853688600-5.5%44528850044086900024.2%4489492003.7%0.0%-5.6%-7.6%2023/09/01805080500.0%8250-2.4%715012.6%725011.0%2023/09/0149505050-2.0%5150-3.9%480056302023/09/019050895087004.0%87004.0%85006.5%2023/09/01390539050.0%39050.0%37304.7%395522023/09/012023/09/0144950230.0344950255.120.0%44950210.650.0%44800227.4450755075273.81-2.5%-9.8%9.2%22023/09/012023/09/01133.81133.81115.38159.02159.02128.431117.23105.25138.47138.47113.86-3.4%178.45178.45137.92-25.0%9.6%1.3%2023/09/01284.06349.35304.19-6.6%276.552.7%234.3721.2%2023/09/01280.15323.09284.61148.0589.2%355.161%2023/09/01184.76217.40192.21-3.9%147.3125.4%199.62-7.4%2023/09/01172.16200.59178.21-3.4%129.0933.4%180.04-4.4%2023/09/01174.70209.35130.1134.3%157.7810.7%105.812023/09/01169.35203.51187.24-9.6%86.0196.9%175.48-3.5%2023/09/01235.70265.44206.1114.4%119.9296.5%235.030.3%2023/09/0140.6240.620.0%35.0615.8%28.0444.8%30.5832.8%22023/09/012023/09/01336.3923.85336.3923.850.0%331.0216.9217.3%24.0824.0815.1025.9425.9415.8340.3%0.0%41.0%57.9%50.6%2023/09/0119.0920.86-8.5%14.5613.4541.9%18.642.4%2023/09/0161.4856.099.6%55.5110.8%44.1039.4%38.7658.6%2023/09/0193.3094.5092.700.6%95.80-2.6%79.6017.2%天然美国HenryHub期货(主连合约)美元/天然英国NBP现货(远期合约)便便士/Therm美国HenryHub现货美元/MMBtu美国美国N.Y.Hub现货美元/MMBtu2023/09/012.772.529.9%2.577.9%2.3517.7%3.72-25.6%2023/09/0182820.0%76.57.2%6722.4%50-45.3%2023/09/012.572.426.2%2.483.6%2.122.4%3.77-31.8%2023/09/011.451.051.1822.9%1.4013.5%2.586-43.9%2023/09/0110.3911.649.68.2%8.1627.3%17.39-40.3%气美元美元/MMBtuGPL现货TTF现货欧元TTF现货TTF期货(次月合约)欧元欧元/兆瓦时美元/MMBtu中国中国LNG现货(华北)元/吨美美国天然气库存十亿立方英尺2023/09/01 22.79 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