全球可再生能源吸引力指数排行

StartContents03

04

05ForewordForewordRECAI

61Normalized

indexRECAI

61Normalized

indexP

PA

index06

07

13P

PA

indexKey

developmentsAnalysisRenewables

highlightsfrom

around

theworldHow

market

actions

areimpacting

theglobaljourney

toward

net

zeroKey

developmentsAnalysis18

21

27Regional

focusData

andmethodologyContactsRegional

focusIndia:

working

round

theclockto

cement

its

investible

positionin

renewable

energyRECAI

61Normalized

indexPPA

IndexData

andmethodologyContactsRenewable

Energy

Country

Attractiveness

Index6102ForewordNoonesaidthepathtonetzerowouldbeasmoothone.Decarbonizingourworldis,undoubtedly,thebiggestchallengeofthecentury.

Itwillrequireallhandsondeck;aplethoraofhurdleswillneedtobeovercome,andcourageousdecisionswillhavetobemade.At

the

same

time,

we

are

seeing

signs

of

amid-year

recession

—

and,

given

that

suchan

environment

typically

facilitates

spendingand

incentives

for

infrastructure

projects,

agenerational

opportunity

has

emerged

for

therenewables

industry

to

turbocharge

green

energydemand

more

than

subsidies

have

in

the

past.For

larger

economies,

it

could

even

drive

growththrough

scaling

up

capacity

in

the

push

for

energyindependence.Equally

important

is

that

the

legislation

hassparked

a

race

to

the

top

among

internationalmarkets

eager

to

boost

the

competitivenessof

their

renewables

industry.

For

instance,inresponse

to

theAct,

theEuropean

UnionForewordannounced

its

Green

Deal

Industrial

Plan,5whichKey

takeawaysoffers

support

for

the

development

of

greentechnologies,

with

a

target

to

manufacture

40%of

the

products

and

equipment

it

needs

for

net-zero

technologies.RECAI

61•

T●

he

limitations

of

relying

on

importedenergy

have

been

highlighted

by

recentworld

events

and

markets’

strengthenedcommitment

to

energy

security.Indeed,

headwinds

have

emerged

in

the

currentmacroeconomic

environment,

highlighted

byrising

interest

rates,

insecurity

of

supply

chainsandtheincreasing

cost

of

renewables

projectdevelopment.

The

energy

crisis,

sparked

by

thewar

in

Ukraine,

also

serves

as

a

firm

reminder

ofthe

limitations

of

interdependent

power

marketsand

the

issues

that

can

arise

from

a

reliance

onimported

energy.

Meanwhile,

the

commitment

toenergy

security

has

never

been

stronger.Consequently,

tailwinds

have

emerged

in

theform

of

innovative,

game-changing

policy,

themost

prominent

of

which

is

the

US

InflationReduction

Act

(the

Act),

which

earmarks

acombined

US$369b

for

investment

in

energyIndia

has

also

stepped

up

investment

andaggressively

raised

targets

for

its

renewablesindustry.

This

edition

of

RECAI

takes

a

deeperdive

into

developments

there

as

the

marketaims

to

become

a

significant

exporter

of

greenammonia

and

hydrogen.Normalized

indexP

PA

index•

T●

he

current

economic

climate,

with

itsinflationary

pressures,

could

facilitatespending

and

incentives

for

infrastructureprojects,

enabling

even

greateropportunities

for

the

renewables

industryto

turbocharge

green

energy

demand.security

and

climate

change.1Inthis

editionof

RECAI,

we

explore

the

impact

and

influenceof

the

Act

on

renewables

investment

activityacross

global

markets.Of

course,

it

would

be

remiss

not

to

acknowledgethat

the

current

path

to

net

zero

comes

withrisks.

The

Act

intensifies

competition

for

capital,and

some

markets

could

be

left

further

behind.Domestic

renewable

energy

supply

chains

couldaccelerate

markets’

broader

economies,

but

theincreased

pressure

on

supply

chains

will

requirenew

partnerships

to

be

developed,

and

this

willtake

some

time.•

I●nnovative,

game-changing

policy

—including

the

US

Inflation

ReductionAct

—

is

set

to

boost

a

broad

range

ofasset

classes.Key

developmentsAnalysisA

broad

range

of

renewable

energy

sources,vectors

and

applications

—

from

wind

and

solar

tonewer

innovations

such

as

hydrogen

and

electricvehicles

(EVs)

—

will

get

a

major

boost

from

taxcredits,

and

new

investment

opportunities

havebeen

sparked

throughout

the

supply

chain.

It’searly

days

—

the

Act

was

passed

in

August

2022•

The

Act

has

accelerated

investment

intoclean

energy

(and

other

decarbonizationinvestments),

but

risks

causing

animbalance

in

international

capitalallocation.Increased

competition

will

accelerate

the

energytransition,

however,

as

exemplified

by

the

factthat

global

investment

in

energy

transitiontechnologies

rose

19%

in

2022,

to

a

record—

but,

in

its

first

six

months,

more

than

US$90bof

capital

investment

has

flooded

into

US

clean2•

Players

looking

to

flourish

in

this

newenvironment

will

need

access

to

flexiblecapital

and

the

full

energy

value

chain,

plusagility

to

operate

in

multiple

jurisdictions.Regional

focusenergy

development.3Given

that,

in

2022,

atotal

of

US$50b

was

invested,

of

which

US$40b4high.

This

will

speed

up

development

of

nascent6came

in

the

three

months

after

the

Act’s

passage,its

colossal

role

in

catalyzing

investment

inrenewables

cannot

be

overstated.Arnaud

de

GiovanniEY

Global

Renewables

Leader•

I●ndia

is

consolidating

its

leading

positionfor

solar

and

is

on

its

way

to

becoming

anexporter

of

green

ammonia

and

hydrogen.Data

andmethodologygreen

technologies

that

will

benefit

the

world

bycombating

climate

change.With

policy

support

for

renewables

bolstered

innumerous

markets,

a

unique

opportunity

hasemerged

for

the

industry,

worldwide,

to

doubledown

on

efforts

to

stimulate

renewables

supplyand

demand

and

accelerate

economies.ContactsThere

may

be

some

twists

and

turns

to

navigateon

the

road

to

net

zero,

but

the

path

is

becomingclearer,

and

the

speed

of

travel

is

increasing.Ben

WarrenRECAI

Chief

editorPartner,

Renewables

Corporate

Finance,Ernst&

Young

LLPRenewableE03RECAI

61IndexGermanyPortugalUS+3+1Germany1The

market

is

set

to

continue

acceleratingexpansion

of

its

solar

photovoltaic(PV)

sector

as

a

core

element

of

itsdecarbonization

strategy,

with

thegovernment

setting

targets

of

11GWof

ground-based

and

11GW

of

rooftopinstallations

per

year

from

2026.

Theenergy

minister

has

also

announcedplans

to

subsidize

the

decarbonization

ofThe

environment

minister

has

stated

thatthe

energy

industry

can

expect

to

see2China

Mainland3Since2003,thebiannualRECAIhasrankedtheworld’s

top40marketsontheattractivenessoftheirrenewableenergyinvestmentanddeploymentopportunities.Therankingsreflectourassessmentsofmarketattractivenessandglobalmarkettrends.€60b

(US$66b)

of

investment

by

2030,while

increasing

wind

and

solar

capacity

by3.4GW

and

6.4GW

respectively.

Portugal

isalso

set

to

launch

an

auction

covering

therights

to

sell

hydrogen

to

the

national

grid.11UK4ForewordFrance5India6AustraliaRECAI

617energy-intensive

industry.7Saudi

Arabia+21Spain3248The

market

has

launched

the

developmentof

the

world’s

largest

solar

PV

plant,

ataround

2GW

by

the

end

of

2025,

as

partof

plans

to

install

27.5GW

of

new

solarcapacity

by

2030.

The

Kingdom

is

also

dueto

launch

its

greenhouse

gas

certificatesmarket

this

year,

while

launchingNetherlands5+1+3+3Netherlands7Normalized

indexP

PA

index9A

new

target

of

3GW

of

offshore

floatingsolar

capacity

has

been

announced

as

partof

a

€28b

(US$30.7b)

package

to

achieve2030

climate

targets.

The

market

hasalso

reached

its

6GW

onshore

wind

target,with

a

further

800MW

due

to

come

online68JapanJordan44001011103841renewables

capacity

tenders

backed

by

thePublic

Investment

Fund.12Saudi

ArabiaIncreased

attractiveness

comparedwith

previous

index399Denmarkduring

2023.8Thailand

381115Decreased

attractiveness

comparedwith

previous

index403712

Canada13Argentina-4South

Africa

37CanadaKey

developmentsAnalysisNo

change

in

attractiveness

sinceprevious

indexArgentina

is

committed

to

growing1317363336IrelandChileItalyGreeceVietnamPlans

to

lease

plots

for

5GW

of

offshorewind

projects

by

2026

have

been

set

inmotion

in

the

province

of

Nova

Scotia,

withthe

projects

targeted

for

operation

by

theend

of

the

decade.

The

government

has

alsointroduced

refundable

tax

credits

for

capitalrenewables,

but

its

energy

grid

is

thoughtto

be

insufficient

to

support

a

furthersignificant

rollout

of

renewables

capacity,with

recent

investment

in

generatingcapacity

not

matched

by

infrastructure.Given

the

potential

of

solar

in

the

northof

the

market

and

wind

in

the

south,

gridcapacity

in

these

areas

is

a

key

issue.13Mexico

351415Current

ranking

shown

in

circles

withprevious

ranking

noted

at

the

bottomof

each

segment12163127Switzerland

34costs

on

new-build

renewables

projects.9333518Philippines1634143231KazakhstanRegional

focusTurkey262117Australia3220Poland-1NorwayArgentinaAustriaEgyptTurkeyTaiwan29The

government

has

issued

new

10-yearfeed-in

tariffs

for

renewable

energy

projectsinstalled

between

2021and2030,

withan

extra

five

years

for

solar

projects

usingcomponents

produced

in

Turkey.

Thissupports

plans

to

decarbonize

the

energymix

to

65%

renewable

sources

by

2030,requiring

53GW

of

solar

PV

by

2035.102218303025Despite

2022

being

a

record

year

forrenewable

energy

project

commitments,Australia

is

currently

not

on

pace

toreach

the

federal

government

target

of82%

renewable

generation

by

2030,

withdeployment

rates

required

to

at

leastdouble

to

achieve

this.14BrazilIsraelSwedenFinland281923

24Data

andmethodology291928202721262225

24

23BelgiumPortugalContactsSee

page

23

for

RECAI

methodology.South

Korea

MoroccoRecent

global

trends

have

had

a

significant

and

direct

effect

on

renewable

energy

markets

through

both

the

gas

crisis

and

supply

chain

concerns.To

ensure

a

more

relevant

and

appropriate

reflection

of

the

current

investment

climate

the

RECAI

team

has

adjusted

the

model

to

be

morereflective

of

the

macroeconomic

factors

driving

the

attractiveness

of

individual

markets.

The

model

now

has

an

increased

weighting

for

the

macrofundamentals

pillar,

which

factors

in

the

economic

stability,

ease

of

doing

business

and

investment

climate

within

markets.Renewable

Energy

Country

Attractiveness

Index6104Normalized

indexTheRECAIusesvariouscriteriatocomparetheattractivenessofrenewablesmarkets,suchasthemagnitudeofthedevelopmentpipeline,thatreflecttheabsolutesizeoftherenewableinvestmentopportunity.Hence,theindexnaturallybenefitslargeeconomies.However,bynormalizingwiththegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)wecanseewhichmarketsareperformingaboveexpectationsfortheireconomicsize.Greece+1+01+01+4The

government

continues

to

implement

policy

to

support

thegrowth

of

renewable

energy.

With

the

announcement

of

its

newsolar-plus-storage

scheme,

residential

and

agricultural

consumerswill

be

able

to

claim

subsidies

to

cover

up

to

65%

of

the

installationcost

of

rooftop

panels

and

batteries.

Policy

has

also

emerged

toallow

old

operating

wind

turbines

to

be

moved

to

isolated

islands,to

boost

renewables

production

at

these

locations

and

extend

theuseful

life

of

the

turbines.15ForewordInthisway,

thenormalizedindexhelpsrevealambitiousplansforenergytransitioninsmallereconomies,creatingsomeattractivealternativesforpotentialinvestors.RECAI

61NormalizedrankingPreviousrankingMovement

vs.previousRECAIrankingNormalizedrankingPreviousrankingMovement

vs.previousRECAIrankingMarketMarketChileNormalized

indexP

PA

index12GreeceMoroccoDenmarkJordanChile2116231140140713022122050408091906173220282122232425262728293031323334353637383940Canada36202119433428382331244125292639323033491224603331294626590115373003483610185641Chile

continues

to

establish

itself

as

a

leader

in

the

renewable

energyindustry.

Driven

by

strong

government

buy-in,

natural

resourceand

the

use

of

global

partnerships,

it

has

become

an

attractivedestination

for

foreign

investment.

Targets

of

80%

renewableenergy

by

2030

and

carbon

neutrality

by

2050

are

ambitious,and

will

require

the

market

to

build

upon

its

existing

infrastructureinvestment

commitment

to

ensure

the

renewable

energy

producedcan

be

distributed

appropriately

across

the

country.16Belgium33HondurasPhilippinesNorway44556AustraliaIrelandGermanyFinlandPortugalFrance7AustriaKey

developmentsAnalysisFinland76KenyaFinnish

onshore

wind

capacity

grew

by

75%

last

year

(2.4GW

ofnew

installed

turbines),

driven

by

domestic

and

foreign

investment.Wind

is

now

Finland’s

single

largest

driver

of

foreign

investment,which

will

be

core

to

the

government’s

target

of

carbon

neutralityby

2030.

The

market

has

also

entered

into

a

cross-border

tenderfor

renewable

energy

as

part

of

the

EU

renewable

energy

financingmechanism,

which

will

allow

for

up

to

400MW

of

solar

PV

projectsto

be

built

in

Finland.178109Taiwan9Tunisia10111213141516171819208UnitedStatesItaly13121411161517221827Regional

focusUKSouthAfricaArgentinaChina

MainlandDominican

RepublicVietnamJapanSpainKazakhstanData

andmethodologyNetherlandsIsraelTo

create

a

more

attractive

environment

for

investors

and

install6.5GW

of

renewables

capacity

by

2035,

Kazakhstan

has

announcedthat

it

intends

to

improve

its

regulatory

framework.

Furthermore,

ithas

identified

the

potential

of

green

hydrogen

and

set

its

sights

onbecoming

a

net

exporter

of

the

fuel

by

the

start

of

the

2030s.

Thegovernment

has

signed

an

agreement

to

begin

the

development

ofa

20GW

green

hydrogen

plant,

which

is

expected

to

produce

up

totwo

million

tonnes

per

year.18IndiaPolandKazakhstanSwedenEgyptContactsBrazilPanamaSee

page

24

for

normalized

RECAI

methodology.PeruRenewable

Energy

Country

Attractiveness

Index6105P

PA

IndexGermanyFor

the

first

time

since

the

EY

PPA

Index

began,

Spain

has

beenknocked

off

the

top

spot

by

a

rising

PPA

star.

Since

October2021,

Germany

has

steadily

moved

up

the

PPA

Index,

fromfourth

position,

and

PPAs

are

now

enabling

the

market’stransition

to

renewables

for

energy

security,

as

well

as

helpingto

reduce

costs

and

decarbonize.

Offshore

wind

deals

play

akey

role

in

German

PPAs,

especially

for

large

industrials.

Forsmaller

corporates,

onshore

wind

and

solar

PV

are

the

maintechnologies.

Feed-in

tariffs,

and

then

government

tenders,used

to

be

the

preferred

choice

of

developers,

but

PPAs

arenow

equally

attractive.Corporate

PPA

market

rides

outa

bumpy

year

to

come

outontopin

EuropeGermanySpainForeword1US2UK3During2022,corporate

powerpurchase

agreements

(PPAs)significantly

overtook

utilityPPAs

in

Europe,

both

in

terms

ofcapacity

(7GW

of

8.4GW)

and

dealcount

(129

of

161

deals).19

Thistrend

is

expected

to

develop

inother

parts

of

the

world.Physical

and

sleeved

PPAs

are4FranceRECAI

61becoming

less

popular,

as

“shaping”costs

have

spiraled,

while

pay-as-produced

virtual

PPAs

are

now

thenorm

in

many

deregulated

markets.5USAustraliaIndiaDenmark6Static

at

No.

3

in

our

global

PPA

Index,

the

US

was

the

origin

ofPPAs

and

has

been

their

powerhouse

for

more

than

a

decadenow.

The

recent

Inflation

Reduction

Act,

which

is

spurringthe

US

renewables

investment

market,

is

expected

to

drivegrowth

of

PPAs

further.

It

was

another

record

year

in

2022,with

16.9GW

of

PPAs,

of

which

at

least

half

were

via

largetechnology

companies.20

An

interesting

development

has

beenthe

rise

of

vPPAs

for

Scope

3

reduction

of

corporate

suppliers’emissions,

as

opposed

to

the

typical

Scope

2

corporate’s

ownoperational

emissions.21Normalized

indexP

PA

index734685It

has

not

been

an

easy

ridefor

corporates

inthepast8Netherlands9year,

however,

with

volatile,sky-high

pricing

—

plus

projectscarcity

—

flipping

the

marketin

sellers’

favor.

Inflation

alsoaffected

PPA

pricingstructures,with

few

developers

agreeingto

no

indexation

—

but

this7Increased

attractiveness

comparedwith

previous

index9Poland10PolandDecreased

attractiveness

comparedwith

previous

indexKey

developmentsAnalysis151011Jumping

five

places

into

the

top

10,

Poland

was

the

fourth-largest

PPA

market

in

Europe

in

2022,

behind

Spain,Germany

and

the

UK.

With

many

companies

having

significantmanufacturing

operations

in

Poland,

and

with

a

carbon-heavygrid,

there

is

a

strong

driver

for

renewable

PPAs.

But

the

futureis

not

plain

sailing.

In

late

2022,

the

government

introduced

ahard

caponpower

producers,includingRES

pricing

to

protectconsumer

costs,

but

this

led

to

great

uncertainty

for

PPAs,and

a

number

of

deals

were

paused.

This

cap

is

expected

to

beremoved

at

the

end

of

2023,

which

should

come

as

welcomenews

to

pending

deals.1112No

change

in

attractiveness

sinceprevious

indexSwedenFinland302928requirement

has

eased,

with

mostnow

offering

flat

nominal

pricing.AustriaNew

entry291213Current

ranking

shown

in

circles

withprevious

ranking

noted

at

the

bottomof

each

segmentLithuania2825During

early

2023,

as

globalmarkets

calmed,

prices

haveeased

considerably,

and

thePPA

market

is

becoming

morebalanced

again.

With

wholesalepower

price

futures

generallyreducing

compared

with

currentprices

in

many

markets,

somecountries

being

at

risk

ofincreased

cannibalization

ofrenewables’

capture

prices,

anddevelopers

needing

long-termrevenue

security,

the

power

of

along-term

PPA

is

sending

sellersback

to

corporates.1314ItalyBrazilNorwayJapan14Regional

focusRomaniaEthopiaGreeceThailandMorocco27242627172016Ireland221523Data

andmethodology1821

1926A

relative

newcomer

to

PPAs,

Ireland

is

now

seeing

growinginterest,

especially

among

large

data

center

and

pharmaceuticalcompanies

with

significant

footprints

in

the

market.

Itsfour-rank

rise

in

this

edition

of

RECAI

is

based

on

severalrecent

deals

and

the

forthcoming

pipeline.

Ireland’s

ClimateAction

Plan

also

aims

for

15%

of

the

market’s

electricity

to

bedelivered

through

PPAs

by

2030.

In

2022,

there

was

647MWof

PPAsinIreland,21

competing

with

its

Renewable

EnergySupport

Scheme

auction

system.1625172418Chile23Contacts192220Portugal21BelgiumEgyptIrelandColombia

SouthAfricaSee

page

26

for

PPA

methodology.Renewable

Energy

Country

Attractiveness

Index6106Key

developments1

2

4

5Renewables

highlightsfrom

around

the

worldNochangeUp1NochangeNochangeForewordRECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingDevelopingpoliciestoencouragethebuild-outofrenewableshasrisentothetopofmanygovernments’agendas,andthispushforenergysecurityinarecessionaryenvironmenthascreatedaviableopportunityforsignificantinvestment.Here,welookatkeydevelopmentswithin10globalmarkets—fromEgypt’s

ambitionsforitsonshorewindsectortoJapan’spushtoincreaseitsshareofthesolarPVmarket.RECAI

6110

13

28

30Normalized

indexP

PA

indexDown1NochangeUp1Down4RECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingKey

ddeevveellooppmmeennttssAnalysis31

36Up3NochangeRECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingRegional

focusData

andmethodologyContactsRenewableE07Key

developments12Up1US:Connection

andconstruction

delays

slowenergy

transitionGermany:

Offshore

windtender

launchedamidpower

market

reformsForewordNochangeThe

US’s

journey

to

net

zero

has

not

been

helped

by

a

gridlock

of

renewable

energyprojects

waiting

for

connection

to

regional

grids.

Seven

leading

regional

gridsreported

large

interconnection

queues,

totaling

1TW,

at

the

end

of

2022.

Solar

wasthe

technology

with

the

most

capacity

in

queues

—

almost

360GW

—

while

standalonebattery

storage

had

258GW.22Germany

climbs

one

place

to

second

position

for

the

first

time

in

a

decade,overtaking

China

Mainland

in

the

index.

The

market

has

launched

a

tender

fortwo

offshore

wind

lots

of

900MW

each

in

the

seabed

areas

off

the

Norderneyshore.

The

bid

deadline

is

1

August

2023,

with

development

rights

expected

tobe

granted

in

the

first

quarter

of

2024

and

the

wind

farms

fully

operational

by2028.25

Germany

boasts

offshore

wind

power

capacity

of

7GW

and

has

a

target

ofreaching

30GW

by

2030.26RECAI

rankingRECAI

rankingRECAI

61Despite

significant

growth

of

the

market’s

offshore

wind

sector,

the

Bidenadministration’s

ambitious

goal

of

having

30GW

of

offshore

wind

power

operatingby

2030

is

likely

to

be

missed

by

10GW,

according

to

current

construction

datesannounced

by

developers.

The

target

could

still

be

met,

however,

if

new

lease

areas

aredeveloped

faster

and

there

are

additional

investments

in

supporting

infrastructure

andsupply

chain.23Normalized

indexP

PA

indexGermany

also

continues

to

accelerate

power

market

reform,

transitioning

awayfrom

fossil

fuels

as

it

pushes

to

achieve

its

goal

of

renewables

comprising

80%of

its

power

mix

by

2030.

Currently,

renewable

energy

accounts

for

46%

of

themarket’s

power

consumption,

up

from

41%

at

the

start

of

2022.27The

US’s

EV

sector

has

received

a

boost,

meanwhile,

with

US$2.5b

of

new

fundingannounced

in

March

to

support

EV

charging

and

hydrogen

infrastructure

through

theCharging

and

Fueling

Infrastructure

Discretionary

Grant

Program,

established

by

theBipartisan

Infrastructure

Law.

Grants

will

be

provided

over

five

years

to

cities,

counties,local

governments

and

Tribes

through

a

Community

Program

,

while

a

CorridorProgram

will

support

development

of

hydrogen

infrastructure

along

designatedalternative

fuel

corridors.In

December

2022,

the

European

Commission

approved

Germany’s

renewableenergy

act

(EEG

2023),

which

includes

a

budget

of

€28b

(US$30.5b)

and

providesaid

to

support

production

of

renewable

energy

through

a

market

premium

paid

bythe

network

operator

to

the

producer,

on

top

of

the

market

price.28Key

ddeevveellooppmmeennttssAnalysisIn

April

2023,

Germany

ceased

operations

at

its

last

three

remaining

nuclearpower

plants.29

While

this

is

a

major

milestone

in

its

progress

to

accelerated

energytransition

targets,

there

is

likely

to

be

an

increase

in

the