IEF-石油市场7月报的比较分析（英）

July

2023Oil

Market

ContextSaudi

Arabia

and

Russia

extend/deepen

production

cutsSaudiArabiaannounced

onJuly3rd

thatit

was

extendingits

voluntary1mb/dproductioncut

fromJuly

into

August.

TheKingdom’s

crude

production

is

expected

to

fall

to

~9

mb/d

–

a

two-year

low.

Simultaneously,

Russia

announced

itwould

be

cutting

an

additional

500

kb/d

from

crude

exports

in

August

and

Algeria

announced

a

20

kb/d

cut

for

thesame

month.Mixed-messages

on

the

global

economy

and

oil

demandNegative

economic

sentiment

continues

to

weigh

on

markets,

but

oil

demand

in

the

world’s

largest

consumingcountries

has

surprised

tothe

upside.In

the

US,

the

world’s

largest

oil

consumer,

both

economic

data

and

oil

demand

continue

to

be

revised

up.

Estimatesof

1Q23

GDP

was

revised

up

to

2.0%

in

June

after

May

estimates

pegged

it

at

just

1.3%.

Additionally,

latest

final

oildemand

data,

for

April

2023,

came

innearly

500

kb/dabove

estimates.Official

PMI

data

showed

China’s

manufacturing

sector

contracted

for

a

third

consecutive

month

in

June.

However,

thecountry’s

oil

demand

has

remained

robust,

soaring

toa

record

high

in

April

and

falling

slightlyin

Mayto

the

2nd

highestlevel

on

record.Furthermore,

economic

and

oil

demand

growth

in

other

non-OECD

countries,

including

India

and

Brazil,

continue

toexceed

and

defy

economists’

expectations

of

an

impending

slowdown.In

contrast,

demand

remains

subdued

across

OECD

Europe

where

the

HCOB

Eurozone

Manufacturing

PMI

hasindicated

a

contraction

for

12-consecutive

months.

The

region’s

oil

demand

in

1H23

averaged

~150

kb/d

below

year-ago

levels.US

begins

SPR

buybackThe

US

Department

of

Energy

has

announced

plans

to

buyback

at

least

12

mb

of

oil

for

the

Strategic

PetroleumReserve

(SPR)

this

year,

including

6

mb

already

contracted

for

delivery

in

August

and

September.

On

July

7th,

theDOE

issued

a

solicitation

for

an

additional

6

mb

for

delivery

in

October

and

November

and

noted

that

they

will

pursueadditional

repurchase

opportunities

as

“market

conditions

allow.”

The

US

SPR

has

fallen

to

a

40-year

low

of

347

mbfollowing

a~250

mb

drawdown

over

the

past

18-months.22023

Forecast

Highlights:•

Global

demand:•

IEA

and

OPEC

remain

fairly

aligned

on

global

demand

growth

(~2.2-2.4

mb/d),

while

EIA

sees

lower

growth

(1.8

mb/d).

IEAcontinues

to

see

~0.7

mb/d

higher

Chinese

demand

growth

this

year

vs.

EIA

and

OPEC.

Meanwhile,

OPEC

sees

more

robustdemand

in

Russia,Africa,

the

Middle

East

andother

non-OECDcountries

compared

to

IEAandEIA.•

IEA

revised

down

its

2023

demand

growth

forecast

by

0.2

mb/d

this

month

primarily

on

weaker

OECD

Europe

and

Middle

Eastdemand.

Meanwhile,

EIA

revised

up

its

demand

growth

by

0.2

mb/d

on

stronger

forecasts

for

Europe,

Brazil,

and

non-OECD

Asia.OPECrevisedupitsforecast

by0.1

mb/d

onstronger-than-expected

2Q23

demand

in

China

andthe

US.•

Non-OPEC

and

OPEC

NGL

supply:•

IEAandEIAboth

nowseenon-OPECandOPECNGLsupplygrowingthisyearby1.9

mb/d.

OPECseeslower

growth

at

1.5

mb/d.•

IEA

revised

up

its

non-OPEC

supply

growth

forecast

by

0.1

mb/d

led

by

higher

Russia

and

US

projections.

Meanwhile,

EIA

reviseddown

its

non-OPEC

growth

forecast

by

0.2

mb/d

on

weaker

projections

for

Norway

and

South

America.

OPEC’s

annual

forecastremained

unchanged

thismonth

asupward

revisions

to

1H23offset

downward

revisions

to

2H23.•

The

largest

divergence

in

supplyforecasts

is

for

Russian

production.

OPEC

sees

a

0.75

mb/d

decline

in

Russian

output

this

year

vs.IEA’sandEIA’sforecast

of

a0.2-0.3

mb/d

annualdecline.•

All

three

forecasters

expectthe

US

to

bethe

largest

driverof

non-OPECsupplygrowth,

adding~1

mb/d

of

newsupplythisyear.•

“Call

on

OPEC”:•

IEA

and

OPEC

see

the

“call

on

OPEC”

rising

to

30.1-30.4

mb/d

in

the

second

half

of

the

year.

This

implies

a

~2

mb/d

global

supplyshortfall

in

2H23ifOPECproduction

were

to

remain

constant

at

Junelevels

(28.19

mb/d).•

June

OPEC

production:•

OPEC

secondary

sources

showOPEC

productionroseby0.09mb/din

June

to28.19mb/dledbya56kb/dincreasefromIrananda54

kb/d

increase

in

Iraq.

IEA

estimates

show

OPEC

crude

production

remained

flat

month-on-month

in

June

at

28.7

mb/d.

IEAestimates

ahigher

production

figure

for

Iran

andUAEvs.OPECsecondary

sources.•

OECD

inventories:•

IEA

estimates

OECD

commercial

inventories

rose

by

5.4

mb

in

May

to

2,824

mb

and

stood

92.2

mb

below

the

five-year

average.OPEC

estimatesOECDcommercial

stocksroseby20.2mbin

May

to2,815

mbandstood101mbbelowthelatestfive-year

averageand140mb

below

the

2015-2019average.32024

Forecast

Highlights:OPEC

issued

its

inaugural2024outlook

this

month•

Global

demand:•

OPEC’s

inaugural

2024forecast

shows

demandgrowth

slowing

to

2.2mb/d

from

2.4mb/dthis

year.

This

is

double

IEA’s

forecast

forof

1.1

mb/d

and0.6

mb/d

aboveEIA’sforecast

of

1.6

mb/d.•

IEA

sees

OECD

demand

declining

by

0.3

mb/d

next

year

while

OPEC

and

EIA

both

forecast

0.3

mb/d

growth.

Additionally,

OPECsees0.2

mb/d

stronger

demandgrowth

in

the

Middle

Eastnextyearcompared

to

both

IEAandEIA.•

Notably,

OPEC

shows

quarterly

demand

reaching

105.3

mb/d

by

4Q24

–

which

is

~4

mb/d

higher

than

all

three

agencies’

estimatesfor

the

most

recent

quarter,

2Q23.•

Despite

having

a

lower

y/y

demand

growth

forecast,

IEA

sees

higher

demand

levels

than

EIA

for

most

of

2024

due

to

a

higher

2023baseline

forecast.

IEAsees

quarterly

demand

risingto

104.5

mb/d

by4Q24

vs.EIA’s103.2

mb/d.•

Non-OPEC

and

OPEC

NGL

supply:•

Both

IEA

and

EIA

see

non-OPEC

and

OPEC

NGL

supply

growing

by

1.0-1.2

mb/d

in

2024.

OPEC

sees

slightly

faster

growth

at

1.5mb/d

primarilydueto

ahigher

US

growth

forecast.•

Notably,

IEA

and

EIA

both

see

US

production

growth

slowing

to

0.4

mb/d

next

year

from

>1.0

mb/d

this

year.

Despite

a

significantslowdown,

the

USis

stillthe

strongest

driverof

non-OPEC

supplygrowth

in

2024.•

“Call

on

OPEC”:•

IEA’s

balance

implies

OPEC

would

need

to

produce

an

average

29.2

mb/d

in

2024

to

balance

the

market.

This

implies

a

~1

mb/dsupplyshortfall

ifOPECproduction

were

to

remain

at

June2023levels

(28.2

mb/d).•

EIA’s

balance

implies

OPEC

would

need

to

produce

an

average

of

28.7

mb/d

in

2024

to

balance

the

market,

implying

a

0.5

mb/dglobalsupplyshortfall

ifOPECproduction

remained

at

June2023levels.•

OPEC’s

balance

implies

a

30.2

mb/d

“Call

on

OPEC”,

implying

a

2.0

mb/d

global

supply

shortfall

if

OPEC

production

remainsconstant

at

June2023levels.•

OPEC’s

2024balanceis

~1

mb/d

tighter

than

IEA’sprimarilydueto

ahigher

demandforecast.42023

Outlook

Comparison5Summary

of

2023

Balances

and

Revisions•

IEA

loosened

its

2023

forecast

by0.4

mb/d

this

month

onlowerdemand

(OECDEurope)

andstronger

non-OPEC

(Russia)

and

OPEC

NGL

supply.Meanwhile,EIA

tightened

its

2023forecast

by0.3

mb/d

onstronger

demand

(Brazil

and

Europe)

and

weaker

non-OPECproduction

(Norwayand

South

America).•

IEA

and

OPECsee

the

“Call

onOPEC”rising

inthe

second

half

of

the

yearand

exceedingrecent

OPECproduction

levelsby~2mb/d,

implyingasignificant

global

supply

shortfall.2023

Balance

SummaryUpdated

ForecastRevisions

to

Last

Month's

Forecast1Q23100.5101.6100.145.545.545.555.056.154.672.373.172.629.328.828.528.128.527.51.22Q23101.4101.2101.045.645.545.655.955.755.372.772.972.828.828.328.428.728.428.20.13Q23103.1102.0101.846.946.846.556.255.155.373.071.973.34Q23103.3103.2101.846.446.246.656.957.055.373.172.473.72023102.1102.0101.246.146.046.056.056.055.172.872.673.12023Y/Y2.21Q230.00.10.10.00.10.0-0.10.00.10.0-0.10.00.10.00.0-0.10.10.10.1-0.1-0.22Q23-0.20.43Q23-0.3-0.10.24Q23-0.20.02023-0.20.12023Y/Y-0.20.1IEAGlobal

DemandOECDDemandOPECEIA2.41.80.10.10.10.2IEA0.2-0.10.0-0.30.0-0.20.0-0.10.0-0.10.0OPECEIA0.10.10.00.10.00.00.1IEA2.10.0-0.1-0.10.10.00.0-0.10.1Non-OECDDemandOPECEIA2.40.4-0.10.10.11.60.10.10.1IEA1.90.40.20.20.20.2Non-OPECSupply*

andOPEC

NGLsOPECEIA1.50.4-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.20.00.01.9-0.2-0.2-0.2IEAOPEC

Crude**Call

onOPECOPECEIA27.530.030.028.527.830.230.828.128.029.329.428.1-0.70.30.0-0.50.00.3-0.3-0.50.10.0-0.40.20.4-0.1-0.40.1-0.1-0.40.1IEAOPECEIA1.0-0.10.50.30.4Global

StockChangeandMiscellaneous

toBalance**IEAOPECEIA0.3-0.11.00.2-1.0-0.4-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.4-0.4*Includes

biofuels

and

processing

gains**Only

EIA

publishes

a

forecast

ofOPECcrude

production

and

globalstock

changeSource:

IEF,

IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,

EIASTEO6IEA

and

OPEC

both

see

global

demand

growth

outpacingnon-OPEC

supply

growth

significantly

in

2H23Global

Demand

Y/Y

GrowthNon-OPEC

Supply

Y/Y

Growthy/ygrowth

inmillion

barrels

perdayy/ygrowth

inmillion

barrels

perday3.03.02.62.42.52.01.51.00.50.02.42.52.01.51.00.50.02.21.51.10.70.21Q232Q233Q234Q232023Avg1Q232Q233Q234Q232023AvgIEA

OPEC

EIAIEA

OPEC

EIASource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO7IEA

and

OPEC

see

global

demand

surpassing

103

mb/d

bythe

end

of

2023;

OPEC

sees

non-OPEC

supply

weakeningsubstantially

in

3Q23Global

DemandNon-OPEC

Supplydemand

inmillion

barrels

per

daysupplyinmillion

barrels

per

day104.0103.5103.0102.5102.0101.5101.0100.5100.099.569.569.068.568.067.567.066.566.065.565.01Q232Q23OPECOPECprevious3Q234Q231Q23IEAIEA

previous2Q233Q234Q23IEAIEA

previousEIAEIApreviousOPECOPECpreviousEIAEIApreviousSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO8Evolution

of

2023

Demand

Growth

Forecasts•

IEA

revisedglobal

demand

growth

lowerfor

the

first

timesince

April,

while

OPECand

EIA

both

revisedforecasts

higher

this

month.•

EIA

continues

to

see

the

weakest

demand

growth

this

year,

drivenbyalowernon-OECD

demand

forecast.•

OECDdemand

growth

forecasts

are

beginning

to

converge

~0.1

mb/d.GlobalDemand

GrowthEvolution

of

2023

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperdayOECD

Demand

GrowthEvolution

of

2023

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperdayNon-OECD

Demand

GrowthEvolution

of

2023

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday3.02.52.01.51.00.50.03.02.52.01.51.00.50.03.0IEAOPECEIA2.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-0.5-0.5Forecast

VintageForecast

VintageForecast

VintageSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO9China

drives

the

largest

demand

growth

forecastdivergence

withIEA

seeing

the

most

robust

growth2023

Demand

Growth

Forecasts

by

Regiony/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perdayRange

in

2023

Demand

GrowthForecasts2.75China0.70.7IEA2.502.252.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00-0.25TotalNon-OECDGlobalOPECEIA0.7OtherNon-OECDMiddleEastAfrica0.30.30.20.20.1OECDAsiaOECDEuropeRussia0.10.1TotalOECDOECDAmericasIndia0.10.0millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO10IEA

sees

~0.7

mb/d

stronger

Chinese

demand

growth

thisyear;

OPEC

sees

Chinese

demand

weakening

in

3Q23before

robust

growth

in

4Q23Chinese

Annual

Average

Demand

GrowthEvolution

of

2023ForecastsChinese

Demandmillion

barrelsper

dayy/ygrowth

inmillion

barrels

perday1.816.816.616.416.216.015.815.615.415.215.01.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0IEAOPECJul-22EIA1Q232Q233Q23OPEC4Q23Jan-22

Apr-22Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23Jul-23IEAEIAForecastVintageSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO11Evolution

of

2023

Non-OPEC

Supply

Growth

Forecasts•

IEA

revisedup

non-OPEC

supply

growth

by0.1

mb/d,

on

aslightly

higher

Russia

forecast.

EIA

revised

down

itsnon-OPEC

growth

forecast

by0.2

mb/d

on

aweaker

outlook

for

Norwayand

South

America.•

OPECcontinues

to

see

the

weakest

non-OPEC

growth

this

year

due

primarily

to

alowerRussia

forecast.Non-OPEC

Supply

GrowthEvolution

of

2023

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperdayRussia

Supply

GrowthUS

Supply

GrowthEvolution

of

2023

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperdayEvolution

of

2023

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday2.52.52.5IEAOPECEIA2.01.52.02.01.51.51.01.01.00.50.50.50.00.00.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-0.5-1.0-1.5IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-2.0-2.0Forecast

VintageForecast

VintageForecast

VintageSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO12Russia

drives

the

largest

supply

growth

forecastdivergence

withOPEC

seeing

the

steepest

decline2023

Supply

Growth

Forecasts

by

RegionRange

in

2023

Supply

GrowthForecastsTotalNon-OPECRussiay/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perday2.250.60.52.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00-0.25-0.50-0.75-1.00IEA

OPEC

EIATotalNon-OECDTotalOECDOtherNon-OECDOPEC

NGLsOtherOECDCanada0.50.20.20.20.20.1US0.10.1ChinaNorway0.10.00.0BrazilKazakhstanmillionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO13IEA

and

EIA

have

revised

Russian

supply

forecasts

sharplyhigher

since

January;

OPEC

sees

>1mb/d

lower

output

in2H23

vs.

IEA

and

EIARussia

Supply

GrowthEvolution

of

2023Forecastsy/ygrowth

inmillion

barrels

perday0.5Russia

Productionmillion

barrelsper

day11.511.010.510.09.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.59.0IEAOPECEIAJul-238.5-2.0Jan-22

Apr-221Q232Q233Q23OPEC4Q23Jul-22Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23IEAEIAForecastVintageSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO14IEA

and

OPEC

balances

imply

a

~2

mb/d

global

supplyshortfall

in

2H23

if

OPEC

production

were

to

remain

at

Junelevels2023

Call

on

OPEC

and

Recent

OPEC

ProductionLevelsmillion

barrelsper

day•

The“callonOPEC

crude”

is32acalculation

andnotaforecast

ofactual

OPECproduction.31302928272625•

The“callonOPEC”estimateswhat

OPEC

wouldneedto

produce

tobalanceglobalsupplyand

demand.•

It

is

estimatedbysubtractingaforecast

for

non-OPECproductionandOPEC

NGLsfromglobaldemand.1Q23IEA2Q233Q23EIA4Q232023AvgOPECJuneOPECProductionSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

OPEC

MOMR,

EIA

STEO152024

Outlook

Comparison16Summary

of

2024

Balances

and

Revisions•

OPECreleased

its

inaugural

2024

balance

this

month.•

OPEC’sinaugural

2024

forecast

showsdemand

growthslowing

to

2.2

mb/d

from

2.4

mb/d

thisyear.

Thisisdouble

IEA’s

forecast

for

2024

demand

growth

of

1.1

mb/d

and

0.6

mb/d

aboveEIA’s

forecast

of

1.6

mb/d.•

Both

IEA

and

EIA

see

non-OPEC

and

OPECNGL

supply

growingby1.0-1.2

mb/d

in2024.OPECsees

slightly

faster

growth

at1.5

mb/d

primarily

due

to

ahigher

US

growth

forecast.17Evolution

of

2024Annual

Demand

Growth

Forecasts•

OPEC’s

2024

globaldemand

growth

forecast

is

doubleIEA’s

duetoa

higherOECD

andMiddleEast

demandgrowth

forecast.•

IEA

sees

OECD

demanddeclining

by0.3

mb/d

next

year.

Meanwhile,

OPEC

andEIA

both

seeOECD

growing

by0.3

mb/d.GlobalDemand

GrowthOECD

Demand

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday2.5Non-OECD

Demand

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday2.5Evolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday2.52.01.51.00.50.02.01.51.00.50.02.01.51.00.50.0IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-0.5Jan-23-0.5Jan-23-0.5Jan-23Apr-23Forecast

VintageJul-23Apr-23Forecast

VintageJul-23Apr-23Jul-23Forecast

VintageSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR18OPEC

sees

global

demand

climbing

to

>105

mb/d

by

theend

of

next

year

–

soaring

~4

mb/d

above

the

most

recentquarterly

estimate

(2Q23)2023-24Global

Demanddemand

inmillion

barrels

per

day106105104103102101100991Q232Q233Q234Q23IEA1Q24OPEC2Q243Q244Q24EIASource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEOSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR19OPEC

sees

more

robust

demand

growth

than

IEA

in

theOECD

region,

India,

Russia,

and

the

Middle

East2024

Demand

Growth

Forecasts

by

Regiony/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perday2.5Range

in

2024

Demand

GrowthForecastsGlobalTotalNon-OECDOECDAmericasTotalOECDMiddleEastOtherNon-OECDChina1.1IEA0.60.62.01.51.00.50.0-0.5OPECEIA0.50.20.20.2India0.20.2RussiaOECDAsiaOECDEuropeAfrica0.10.10.1millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR20Non-OPEC

supply

forecasts

for

2024

are

significantly

morealigned

than

2H23

projections2023-24Non-OPEC

Supplysupplyinmillion

barrels

per

day70.069.569.068.568.067.567.066.566.01Q232Q233Q234Q23IEA1Q24OPEC2Q24EIA3Q244Q24Source:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR21Evolution

of

2024Annual

Non-OPEC

Supply

GrowthForecasts•

OPECsees

the

most

robust

growth

due

primarily

to

ahigher

US

forecast.•

While

allthree

forecasts

see

US

supply

growthslowing

substantially

from

2023’s

>1

mb/d

growth,the

US

isstillexpected

to

bethe

largest

contributor

to

non-OPEC

growth

nextyear.Non-OPEC

Supply

GrowthRussia

Supply

GrowthUS

Supply

GrowthEvolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday1.5Evolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday1.5Evolution

of

2024

Forecastsy/y

growth

in

millionbarrelsperday1.5IEAOPECEIA1.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0.11.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.31.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0.1IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-0.3Jan-23-0.3Jan-23Apr-23Forecast

VintageJul-23Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Apr-23Forecast

VintageJul-23Forecast

VintageSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR22OPEC

sees

the

strongest

non-OPEC

supply

growth

in

2024due

largely

to

a

higher

US

forecast2024

Supply

Growth

Forecasts

by

Regiony/ygrowth

in

million

barrels

perdayRange

in

2024

Supply

GrowthForecasts1.4TotalNon-OPECTotalOECDTotalNon-OECDUS0.40.4IEA

OPEC

EIA1.20.30.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2Canada0.2OtherNon-OECDRussia0.10.1Brazil0.1KazakhstanNorway0.10.1China0.00.00.0OtherOECDOPEC

NGLsmillionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEOSource:IEF,

IEA

OMR,

EIA

STEO,

OPEC

MOMR23OPEC’s

inaugural

2024

balance

implies

a

~2

mb/d

supplyshortfall

if

OPEC

production

remains

at

June

2023

levels•

The“callonOPEC

crude”

isacalculation

and