IMF世界经济展望（2021年10月）：下调今年全球经济增长预期至5.9%-IMF-2021.10-172正式版

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDWORLDECONOMICOUTLOOKRecoveryDuringaPandemicHealthConcerns,SupplyDisruptions,andPricePressures2021OCTINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDWORLDECONOMICOUTLOOKRecoveryDuringaPandemicHealthConcerns,SupplyDisruptions,andPricePressures2021OCT©2021InternationalMonetaryFundCoverandDesign:IMFCSFCreativeSolutionsDivisionComposition:AGS,AnRRDonnelleyCompanyCataloging-in-PublicationDataJointBank-FundLibraryNames:InternationalMonetaryFund.Title:Worldeconomicoutlook(InternationalMonetaryFund)Othertitles:WEO|Occasionalpaper(InternationalMonetaryFund)|Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys.Description:Washington,DC:InternationalMonetaryFund,1980-|Semiannual|Someissuesalsohavethematictitles.|BeganwithissueforMay1980.|1981-1984:Occasionalpaper/InternationalMonetaryFund,0251-6365|1986-:Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys,0256-6877.Identifiers:ISSN0256-6877(print)|ISSN1564-5215(online)Subjects:LCSH:Economicdevelopment—Periodicals.|Internationaleconomicrelations—Periodicals.|Debts,External—Periodicals.|Balanceofpayments—Periodicals.|Internationalfinance—Periodicals.|Economicforecasting—Periodicals.Classification:LCCHC10.W79HC10.80ISBN978-1-51357-752-4(EnglishPaper)978-1-55775-449-3(EnglishePub)978-1-55775-442-4(EnglishWebPDF)TheWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO)isasurveybytheIMFstaffpublishedtwiceayear,inthespringandfall.TheWEOispreparedbytheIMFstaffandhasbenefitedfromcommentsandsuggestionsbyExecutiveDirectorsfollowingtheirdiscussionofthereportonSeptember27,2021.TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheIMFstaffanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF’sExecutiveDirectorsortheirnationalauthorities.Recommendedcitation:InternationalMonetaryFund.2021.WorldEconomicOutlook:RecoveryduringaPandemic—HealthConcerns,SupplyDisruptions,PricePressures.Washington,DC,October.Publicationordersmaybeplacedonline,byfax,orthroughthemail:InternationalMonetaryFund,PublicationServicesP.O.Box92780,Washington,DC20090,USATel.:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201E-mail:publications@CONTENTSAssumptionsandConventionsFurtherInformationDataviiixxiPrefacexiixiiixv1ForewordExecutiveSummaryChapter1.GlobalProspectsandPoliciesNear-TermRecoveryContinueswhilethePandemicResurgesEmploymentGrowthProjectedtoLagtheOutputRecoveryRisesinInflation,HighUncertainty178LargeDifferencesinMedium-TermEconomicLossesLingerTradeGrowing,ImbalancesProjectedtoNarrowovertheMedium-TermUncertaintyGrowsasVariantsreatentheRecovery’sResiliencePolicyActionstoStrengthentheRecoveryScenarioBox1.DownsideScenariosBox1.1.HousePricesandConsumerPriceInflationBox1.2.JobsandtheGreenEconomyBox1.3.MonetaryExpansionsandInflationaryRisksSpecialFeature:CommodityMarketDevelopmentsandForecastsReferences12131415232527293143Chapter2.InflationScares45Introduction454850535658606163EconomicSlackandtheInflationOutlook—EvidencefromthePhillipsCurveeRoleofAnchoringofInflationExpectationsSectoralShocksandtheInflationOutlookConclusionsBox2.1.FoodInsecurityandPricesduringCOVID-19Box2.2.CoreInflationintheCOVID-19CrisisBox2.3.PolicyResponsesandExpectationsinInflationAccelerationEpisodesReferencesChapter3.ResearchandInnovation:FightingthePandemicandBoostingLong-TermGrowth65IntroductionConceptualFrameworkConnectingBasicSciencetoGrowthPolicyAnalysis65676773Conclusions:InvestmentinBasicScienceBoostsProductivityandPaysforItselfovertheLongTermBox3.1.mRNAVaccinesandtheRoleofBasicScientificResearch7677InternationalMonetaryFund|October2021iiiWORLDECONOMICOUTLOOK:RECOVERYDURINGAPANDEMICBox3.2.CleanTechandtheRoleofBasicScientificResearchBox3.3.IntellectualProperty,Competition,andInnovationReferences798182StatisticalAppendix83AssumptionsWhat’sNewDataandConventionsCountryNotes8383838586ClassificationofCountriesGeneralFeaturesandCompositionofGroupsintheWorldEconomicOutlookClassification87TableA.ClassificationbyWorldEconomicOutlookGroupsandeirSharesinAggregateGDP,ExportsofGoodsandServices,andPopulation,2020TableB.AdvancedEconomies,bySubgroupTableC.EuropeanUnion888989TableD.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies,byRegionandMainSourceofExportEarnings90TableE.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomiesbyRegion,NetExternalPosition,HeavilyIndebtedPoorCountries,andPerCapitaIncomeClassificationTableF.EconomieswithExceptionalReportingPeriodsTableG.KeyDataDocumentation919394BoxA1.EconomicPolicyAssumptionsunderlyingtheProjectionsforSelectedEconomiesBoxA2.ClimateChangeandEmissionsDatainFigure1.21ListofTablesOutput(TablesA1–A4)Inflation(TablesA5–A7)FinancialPolicies(TableA8)ForeignTrade(TableA9)CurrentAccountTransactions(TablesA10–A12)BalanceofPaymentsandExternalFinancing(TableA13)FlowofFunds(TableA14)104109110111118123124126133137140Medium-TermBaselineScenario(TableA15)WorldEconomicOutlook,SelectedTopicsIMFExecutiveBoardDiscussionoftheOutlook,October2021Tables141151Table1.1.OverviewoftheWorldEconomicOutlookProjectionsTable1.2.OverviewoftheWorldEconomicOutlookProjectionsatMarketExchangeRateWeights57Table1.SF.1.KeyIndicatorsforEnergyTransitionMetalsTable1.SF.2.EstimatedCumulatedRealRevenuefortheGlobalProductionofSelectedEnergyTransitionMetals:2021–40AnnexTable1.1.1.EuropeanEconomies:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,CurrentAccountBalance,andUnemploymentAnnexTable1.1.2.AsianandPacificEconomies:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,CurrentAccountBalance,andUnemploymentAnnexTable1.1.3.WesternHemisphereEconomies:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,CurrentAccountBalance,andUnemployment3336373839ivInternationalMonetaryFund|October2021contentsAnnexTable1.1.4.MiddleEastandCentralAsiaEconomies:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,CurrentAccountBalance,andUnemployment40AnnexTable1.1.5.Sub-SaharanAfricanEconomies:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,CurrentAccountBalance,andUnemploymentAnnexTable1.1.6.SummaryofWorldRealperCapitaOutput4142OnlineTables—StatisticalAppendixTableB1.AdvancedEconomies:Unemployment,Employment,andRealGDPperCapitaTableB2.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:RealGDPTableB3.AdvancedEconomies:HourlyEarnings,Productivity,andUnitLaborCostsinManufacturingTableB4.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:ConsumerPricesTableB5.SummaryofFiscalandFinancialIndicatorsTableB6.AdvancedEconomies:GeneralandCentralGovernmentNetLending/BorrowingandGeneralGovernmentNetLending/BorrowingExcludingSocialSecuritySchemesTableB7.AdvancedEconomies:GeneralGovernmentStructuralBalancesTableB8.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:GeneralGovernmentNetLending/BorrowingandOverallFiscalBalanceTableB9.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:GeneralGovernmentNetLending/BorrowingandOverallFiscalBalanceTableB10.SelectedAdvancedEconomies:ExchangeRatesTableB11.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:BroadMoneyAggregatesTableB12.AdvancedEconomies:ExportVolumes,ImportVolumes,andTermsofTradeinGoodsandServicesTableB13.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomiesbyRegion:TotalTradeinGoodsTableB14.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomiesbySourceofExportEarnings:TotalTradeinGoodsTableB15.SummaryofCurrentAccountTransactionsTableB16.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:SummaryofExternalDebtandDebtServiceTableB17.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomiesbyRegion:ExternalDebtbyMaturityTableB18.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomiesbyAnalyticalCriteria:ExternalDebtbyMaturityTableB19.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:RatioofExternalDebttoGDPTableB20.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:Debt-ServiceRatiosTableB21.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies,Medium-TermBaselineScenario:SelectedEconomicIndicatorsFiguresFigure1.1.NewConfirmedCOVID-19DeathsFigure1.2.DriversofGlobalGrowthFigure1.3.GlobalActivityIndicatorsFigure1.4.eGreatVaccinationDivideFigure1.5.FiscalStance,2020–22Figure1.6.MonetaryandFinancialConditionsFigure1.7.LaborMarkets,byEconomyandWorkerGroups2223348IꢀꢁꢂrꢀaꢁiꢃꢀalMꢃꢀꢂꢁaryFuꢀd|October2021vWORLDECONOMICOUTLOOK:RECOVERYDURINGAPANDEMICFigure1.8.ShareofEconomiesProjectedtoRegainPre-PandemicEmploymentandOutputLevelsby2022Figure1.9.InflationTrends99Figure1.10.SupplyandDemandDriversofShippingExpenditureGrowthFigure1.11.CommodityPricesFigure1.12.FoodPriceInflationandFoodInsecurityFigure1.13.USAverageHourlyEarnings:OverallandSelectedSectorsFigure1.14.Five-Year,Five-YearInflationSwapsFigure1.15.Medium-TermProspects:OutputandEmploymentFigure1.16.CorrelatesofProjectedOutputRevisionsFigure1.17.CurrentAccountandInternationalInvestmentPositionsFigure1.18.COVID-19VaccineRolloutsandHealthOutcomes:eCaseoftheUnitedKingdomFigure1.19.COVID-19VaccinationsandEconomicActivityinUSCountiesFigure1.20.GapsinVaccinationRatesacrossEconomiesFigure1.21.ClimateChangePolicyGaps1010101111121314161617182122232425Figure1.22.InternetAccessaroundtheWorldFigure1.23.SchoolClosuresandEnrollmentScenarioFigure1.1.IncreaseinUnitedStatesInflationExpectationsScenarioFigure1.2.LivingwithCOVID-19Figure1.1.1.GlobalHousingIndicatorsFigure1.1.2.ResponseofCPIRentInflationtoa1-Percentage-PointShocktoNominalHousePricesFigure1.2.1.GreenTasksinJobsacrossCountriesandWorkerGroupsFigure1.2.2.GreenTasksinJobsacrossSectorsFigure1.3.1.ChangeinInflationaftera10PercentIncreaseintheMonetaryBaseFigure1.SF.1.CommodityMarketDevelopmentsFigure1.SF.2.RisingPressureonConsumerFoodPricesFigure1.SF.3.DemandforCriticalEnergyTransitionMetalsMayIncreaseSharplyintheNextTwoDecadesFigure1.SF.4.HistoricalMetalProductionandIEAEnergyTransitionScenariosFigure1.SF.5.TopreeCountries,byShareofGlobalProductionandReservesforSelectedMetalsFigure1.SF.6.ImpactofMetalPriceShocksonExportersFigure1.SF.7.SupplyElasticitiesforSelectedMetalsFigure1.SF.8.PriceScenariosfortheIEA’sStatedPoliciesScenarioandtheNetZeroby2050EmissionsScenarioFigure2.1.ConsumerPriceInflation,byCountryGroupFigure2.2.ExcessSavings,CommodityPrices,andSupplyChainDisruptionsFigure2.3.LaborDemandinAdvancedEconomiesFigure2.4.UnemploymentGap–InflationPhillipsCorrelationFigure2.5.Slack-InducedInflationDynamicsfromStructuralPhillipsCurveinAdvancedEconomies26272829313233343434353546474849505152Figure2.6.InflationAnchoringFigure2.7.InflationEpisodesFigure2.8.ResponseofFive-Year,Five-YearForwardBreakevenInflationtoOilPriceShocksFigure2.9.SectoralInflationDynamicsFigure2.10.HeadlineInflationandInflationExpectationsBaselineOutlookFigure2.11.HeadlineInflationandInflationExpectationsOutlookwithAdverseSectoralandCommodityPriceShocks53545555viInternationalMonetaryFund|October2021contentsFigure2.12.HeadlineInflationwithAdverseSectoralandCommodityPriceShocksandAdaptiveExpectationsShock56585860606667686970727274777778787980Figure2.1.1.SelectedCountries’CommodityPriceSurgesFigure2.1.2.FoodStaplesContributiontoCPIInflation;Median,byIncomeFigure2.2.1.HeadlineandUnderlyingInflationintheUnitedStatesFigure2.2.2.InflationRatesintheUnitedStates;byIndustry,April2021Figure3.1.MeasuresofResearchandProductivityFigure3.2.StylizedConceptualFrameworkFigure3.3.GeographyofInternationalBasicKnowledgeFlowsFigure3.4.DiffusionofBasicandAppliedKnowledgeFigure3.5.EstimatedIdeasProductionFunctionFigure3.6.EstimatedOutputProductionFunctionFigure3.7.ImplicationsoftheEmpiricalFindingsFigure3.8.OptimalPolicyFigure3.1.1.mRNATechnologyWasBuiltonWavesofPreviousScientificDiscoveriesFigure3.1.2.mRNAVaccinesReliedonaBroadBaseofScientificKnowledgeFigure3.1.3.UnprecedentedPublicSupportforCOVID-19VaccineClinicalTrialsFigure3.1.4.GlobalDistributionofVaccinesRemainsaKeyPolicyChallengeFigure3.2.1.CleanInnovationReliesRelativelyMoreonBasicandNewerResearchFigure3.2.2.CleanInnovation,inParticular,CitesEngineeringandTechnologyIꢀꢁꢂrꢀaꢁiꢃꢀalMꢃꢀꢂꢁaryFuꢀd|October2021viiASSUMPTIONSANDCONVENTIONSAnumberofassumptionshavebeenadoptedfortheprojectionspresentedintheWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO).IthasbeenassumedthatrealeffectiveexchangeratesremainedconstantattheiraveragelevelsduringJuly23,2021,toAugust20,2021,exceptforthoseforthecurrenciesparticipatingintheEuropeanexchangeratemechanismII,whichareassumedtohaveremainedconstantinnominaltermsrelativetotheeuro;thatestablishedpoliciesofnationalauthoritieswillbemaintained(forspecificassumptionsaboutfiscalandmon-etarypoliciesforselectedeconomies,seeBoxA1intheStatisticalAppendix);thattheaveragepriceofoilwillbe$65.68abarrelin2021and$64.52abarrelin2022andwillremainunchangedinrealtermsoverthemediumterm;thatthesix-monthLondoninterbankofferedrateonUSdollardepositswillaverage0.2percentin2021and0.4percentin2022;thatthethree-montheurodepositratewillaverage–0.5percentin2021and2022;andthatthesix-monthJapaneseyendepositratewillyield,onaverage,–0.1percentin2021and0.0percentin2022.eseare,ofcourse,workinghypothesesratherthanforecasts,andtheuncertaintiessurroundingthemaddtothemarginoferrorthatwould,inanyevent,beinvolvedintheprojections.eestimatesandprojectionsarebasedonstatisticalinformationavailablethroughSeptember27,2021.efollowingconventionsareusedthroughouttheWEO:...toindicatethatdataarenotavailableornotapplicable;–betweenyearsormonths(forexample,2020–21orJanuary–June)toindicatetheyearsormonthscovered,includingthebeginningandendingyearsormonths;andbetweenyearsormonths(forexample,2020/21)toindicateafiscalorfinancialyear./“Billion”meansathousandmillion;“trillion”meansathousandbillion.“Basispoints”referstohundredthsof1percentagepoint(forexample,25basispointsareequivalentto¼of1percentagepoint).Datarefertocalendaryears,exceptinthecaseofafewcountriesthatusefiscalyears.PleaserefertoTableFintheStatisticalAppendix,whichliststheeconomieswithexceptionalreportingperiodsfornationalaccountsandgovernmentfinancedataforeachcountry.Forsomecountries,thefiguresfor2020andearlierarebasedonestimatesratherthanactualoutturns.PleaserefertoTableGintheStatisticalAppendix,whichliststhelatestactualoutturnsfortheindicatorsinthenationalaccounts,prices,governmentfinance,andbalanceofpaymentsindicatorsforeachcountry.Whatisnewinthispublication:•DataforAndorrahavebeenaddedtothedatabaseandareincludedintheadvancedeconomiesgroupcomposites.Inthetablesandfigures,thefollowingconventionsapply:•Ifnosourceislistedintablesandfigures,dataaredrawnfromtheWEOdatabase.•Whencountriesarenotlistedalphabetically,theyareorderedonthebasisofeconomicsize.•Minordiscrepanciesbetweensumsofconstituentfiguresandtotalsshownreflectrounding.Asusedinthisreport,theterms“country”and“economy”donotinallcasesrefertoaterritorialentitythatisastateasunderstoodbyinternationallawandpractice.Asusedhere,thetermalsocoverssometerritorialentitiesthatarenotstatesbutforwhichstatisticaldataaremaintainedonaseparateandindependentbasis.viiiInternationalMonetaryFund|October2021AssuMptIonsAndconventIonsCompositedataareprovidedforvariousgroupsofcountriesorganizedaccordingtoeconomiccharacteristicsorregion.Unlessnotedotherwise,countrygroupcompositesrepresentcalculationsbasedon90percentormoreoftheweightedgroupdata.eboundaries,colors,denominations,andanyotherinformationshownonmapsdonotimply,onthepartoftheIMF,anyjudgmentonthelegalstatusofanyterritoryoranyendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.IꢀꢁꢂrꢀaꢁiꢃꢀalMꢃꢀꢂꢁaryFꢄꢀꢅ|October2021ixFURTHERINFORMATIONCorrectionsandRevisionsedataandanalysisappearingintheWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO)arecompiledbytheIMFstaffatthetimeofpublication.Everyeffortismadetoensuretheirtimeliness,accuracy,andcompleteness.Whenerrorsarediscovered,correctionsandrevisionsareincorporatedintothedigitaleditionsavailablefromtheIMFwebsiteandontheIMFeLibrary(seebelow).Allsubstantivechangesarelistedintheonlinetableofcontents.PrintandDigitalEditionsPrintPrintcopiesofthisWEOcanbeorderedfromtheIMFbookstoreatimfbk.st/460116.DigitalMultipledigitaleditionsoftheWEO,includingePub,enhancedPDF,andHTML,areavailableontheIMFeLibraryat/OCT21WEO.DownloadafreePDFofthereportanddatasetsforeachofthechartsthereinfromtheIMFwebsiteat/publications/weoorscantheQRcodebelowtoaccesstheWEOwebpagedirectly:CopyrightandReuseInformationonthetermsandconditionsforreusingthecontentsofthispublicationareat/external/terms.htm.xInternationalMonetaryFund|October2021DATAisversionoftheWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO)isavailableinfullthroughtheIMFeLibrary(www.elibrary.)andtheIMFwebsite().AccompanyingthepublicationontheIMFwebsiteisalargercom-pilationofdatafromtheWEOdatabasethanisincludedinthereportitself,includingfilescontainingtheseriesmostfrequentlyrequestedbyreaders.esefilesmaybedownloadedforuseinavarietyofsoftwarepackages.edataappearingintheWEOarecompiledbytheIMFstaffatthetimeoftheWEOexercises.ehistori-caldataandprojectionsarebasedontheinformationgatheredbytheIMFcountrydeskofficersinthecontextoftheirmissionstoIMFmembercountriesandthroughtheirongoinganalysisoftheevolvingsituationineachcountry.Historicaldataareupdatedonacontinualbasisasmoreinformationbecomesavailable,andstructuralbreaksindataareoftenadjustedtoproducesmoothserieswiththeuseofsplicingandothertechniques.IMFstaffestimatescontinuetoserveasproxiesforhistoricalserieswhencompleteinformationisunavailable.Asaresult,WEOdatacandifferfromthoseinothersourceswithofficialdata,includingtheIMF’sInternationalFinancialStatistics.eWEOdataandmetadataprovidedare“asis”and“asavailable,”andeveryeffortismadetoensuretheirtimeliness,accuracy,andcompleteness,butthesecannotbeguaranteed.Whenerrorsarediscovered,thereisaconcertedefforttocorrectthemasappropriateandfeasible.CorrectionsandrevisionsmadeafterpublicationareincorporatedintotheelectroniceditionsavailablefromtheIMFeLibrary()andontheIMFwebsite().Allsubstantivechangesarelistedindetailintheonlinetablesofcontents.FordetailsonthetermsandconditionsforusageoftheWEOdatabase,pleaserefertotheIMFCopyrightandUsagewebsite(/external/terms.htm).InquiriesaboutthecontentoftheWEOandtheWEOdatabaseshouldbesentbymail,fax,oronlineforum(telephoneinquiriescannotbeaccepted):WorldEconomicStudiesDivisionResearchDepartmentInternationalMonetaryFund70019thStreet,NWWashington,DC20431,USAFax:(202)623-6343OnlineForum:/weoforumInternationalMonetaryFund|October2021xiPREFACEeanalysisandprojectionscontainedintheWorldEconomicOutlookareintegralelementsoftheIMF’ssurveillanceofeconomicdevelopmentsandpoliciesinitsmembercountries,ofdevelopmentsininternationalfinancialmarkets,andoftheglobaleconomicsystem.esurveyofprospectsandpoliciesistheproductofacomprehensiveinterdepartmentalreviewofworldeconomicdevelopments,whichdrawsprimarilyoninformationtheIMFstaffgathersthroughitsconsultationswithmembercountries.eseconsultationsarecarriedoutinparticularbytheIMF’sareadepartments—namely,theAfricanDepartment,AsiaandPacificDepartment,EuropeanDepartment,MiddleEastandCentralAsiaDepartment,andWesternHemisphereDepartment—togetherwiththeStrategy,Policy,andReviewDepartment;theMonetaryandCapitalMarketsDepartment;andtheFiscalAffairsDepartment.eanalysisinthisreportwascoordinatedintheResearchDepartmentunderthegeneraldirectionofGitaGopinath,EconomicCounsellorandDirectorofResearch.eprojectwasdirectedbyPetyaKoevaBrooks,DeputyDirector,ResearchDepartment;andMalharNabar,DivisionChief,ResearchDepartment.eprimarycontributorstothisreportarePhilipBarrett,JohnBluedorn,ChristianBogmans,FrancescaCaselli,SonaliDas,Niels-JakobHansen,ChristofferKoch,TohKuan,GiacomoMagistretti,PrachiMishra,Jean-MarcNatal,DiaaNoureldin,AndreaPescatori,ErvinPrifti,MartinStuermer,NicoValckx,andPhilippeWingender.OthercontributorsincludeSwapnilAgarwal,ItaiAgur,MichalAndrle,GavinAsdorian,LaurenceBall,SrijoniBanerjee,EricBang,NinaBiljanovska,SimonBlack,RachelBrasier,MariyaBrussevich,ChunyaBu,LuisaCalixto,DamienCapelle,YanivCohen,OlivierCoibion,MattiaCoppo,AllanDizioli,RomainDuval,AngelaEspiritu,RebeccaEyassu,ChenxuFu,VandaGuerreiro,JinjinHe,MandyHemmati,KeikoHonjo,YouyouHuang,BenjaminHunt,DenizIgan,PiyushaKhot,EduardLaurito,JungjinLee,DanielLeigh,RuiMano,SusannaMursula,SavannahNewman,CynthiaNyanchamaNyakeri,EmoryOakes,IlsePeirtsegaele,EvgeniaPugacheva,YiyuanQi,DanielaRojasFernandez,MaxRozycki,DamianoSandri,KatrienSmuts,AntonioSpilimbergo,JohnSpray,PhilipStokoe,SusieXiaohuiSun,JimTebrake,NicholasTong,FilizUnsal,ShanWang,DongWenchuan,YarouXu,HannahLehengYang,HuiyuanZhao,andJiaqiZhao.JosephProcopiofromtheCommunicationsDepartmentledtheeditorialteamforthereport,withproductionandeditorialsupportfromChristineEbrahimzadeh,andadditionalassistancefromLucyScottMorales,JamesUnwin,HaroldMedina,andTalentMEDIAServices.eanalysishasbenefitedfromcommentsandsuggestionsbystaffmembersfromotherIMFdepartments,aswellasbyExecutiveDirectorsfollowingtheirdiscussionofthereportonSeptember28,2021.However,estimates,projections,andpolicyconsiderationsarethoseoftheIMFstaffandshouldnotbeattributedtoExecutiveDirectorsortotheirnationalauthorities.xiiInternationalMonetaryFund|October2021FOREWORDTsibleDeltavariant,therecordedglobalheglobalrecoverycontinuesbutthemomentumhasweakened,hobbledbythepandemic.Fueledbythehighlytransmis-populationinlow-incomecountriesremainunvac-cinated.Emerginganddevelopingeconomies,facedwithtighterfinancingconditionsandagreaterriskofde-anchoringinflationexpectations,arewithdrawingpolicysupportmorequicklydespitelargershortfallsinoutput.COVID-19deathtollhasrisencloseto5millionandhealthrisksabound,holdingbackafullreturntonor-malcy.Pandemicoutbreaksincriticallinksofglobalsupplychainshaveresultedinlonger-than-expectedsupplydisruptions,furtherfeedinginflationinmanycountries.Overall,riskstoeconomicprospectshaveincreased,andpolicytrade-offshavebecomemorecomplex.ComparedtoourJulyforecast,theglobalgrowthprojectionfor2021hasbeenreviseddownmargin-allyto5.9percentandisunchangedfor2022at4.9percent.ismodestheadlinerevision,however,maskslargedowngradesforsomecountries.eoutlookforthelow-incomedevelopingcountrygrouphasdarkenedconsiderablyduetoworseningpandemicdynamics.edowngradealsoreflectsmoredifficultnear-termprospectsfortheadvancedeconomygroup,inpartduetosupplydisruptions.Partiallyoffset-tingthesechanges,projectionsforsomecommodityexportershavebeenupgradedonthebackofrisingcommodityprices.Pandemic-relateddisruptionstocontact-intensivesectorshavecausedthelabormarketrecoverytosignificantlylagtheoutputrecoveryinmostcountries.edangerousdivergenceineconomicprospectsacrosscountriesremainsamajorconcern.Aggregateoutputfortheadvancedeconomygroupisexpectedtoregainitspre-pandemictrendpathin2022andexceeditby0.9percentin2024.Bycontrast,aggre-gateoutputfortheemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomygroup(excludingChina)isexpectedtoremain5.5percentbelowthepre-pandemicforecastin2024,resultinginalargersetbacktoimprovementsintheirlivingstandards.eseeconomicdivergencesareaconsequenceoflargedisparitiesinvaccineaccessandinpolicysup-port.Whilealmost60percentofthepopulationinadvancedeconomiesarefullyvaccinatedandsomearenowreceivingboostershots,about96percentoftheSupplydisruptionsposeanotherpolicychallenge.Ontheonehand,pandemicoutbreaksandweatherdisruptionshaveresultedinshortagesofkeyinputsanddraggedmanufacturingactivitylowerinseveralcountries.Ontheotherhand,thesesupplyshort-ages,alongsidethereleaseofpent-updemandandthereboundincommodityprices,havecausedconsumerpriceinflationtoincreaserapidlyin,forexample,theUnitedStates,Germany,andmanyemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.Foodpriceshaveincreasedthemostinlow-incomecountrieswherefoodinse-curityismostacute,addingtotheburdensofpoorerhouseholdsandraisingtheriskofsocialunrest.eOctober2021GlobalFinancialStabilityReporthighlightsanotherchallengetomonetarypolicyfromincreasingrisktakinginfinancialmarketsandrisingfragilitiesinthenonbankfinancialinstitutionssector.Aprincipalcommonfactorbehindthesecomplexchallengesisthecontinuedgripofthepandemiconglobalsociety.eforemostpolicypriorityisthereforetovaccinateadequatenumbersineverycountryandpreventmorevirulentvirusmutations.AsChapter1explains,thiswil