nber -The Summer Drop in Female Employment-此为英文文档

NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIES

THESUMMERDROPINFEMALEEMPLOYMENT

BrendanM.Price

MelanieWasserman

WorkingPaper31566

/papers/w31566

NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH

1050MassachusettsAvenue

Cambridge,MA02138

August2023

PricegratefullyacknowledgesfinancialsupportfromtheW.E.UpjohnInstitute’sEarlyCareerResearchAwardprogram.WearegratefultoMonicaRodriguez-GuevaraandMatiasGiaccobassoforoutstandingresearchassistance.WethankMarthaBailey,JohnCoglianese,AndrewGarin,PaolaGiuliano,ClaudiaGoldin,AngelaKilby,ColleenFlahertyManchester,SethMurray,ChristopherNekarda,RomainWacziarg,andparticipantsatthe2021LaborandEmploymentRelationsAssociationmeetings,theFederalReserveBoard,theUniversityofMichiganPopulationStudiesCenter,theUniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-Champaign,theUniversityofChicagoInclusiveEconomyLab,theUpjohnInstitute,theFederalReserveBankofSanFrancisco,UCBerkeley,UCDavis,UCMerced,ClaremontMcKennaCollege,theCEPR-QMULAnnualSymposiuminLabourEconomics,the2023MontanaStateUniversityAppliedEconomicsConference,the2023NorthAmericaSummerMeetingoftheEconometricsSociety,the2022WebinarinGenderandFamilyEconomics,the2022SocietyofLaborEconomistsannualmeeting,the2022CESifoAreaConferenceonLaborEconomics,andthe2022SITEGenderconferenceforhelpfulfeedback.Allerrorsareours.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsorpoliciesoftheBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,itsstaff,ortheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.

NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.

©2023byBrendanM.PriceandMelanieWasserman.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including©notice,isgiventothesource.

TheSummerDropinFemaleEmployment

BrendanM.PriceandMelanieWasserman

NBERWorkingPaperNo.31566

August2023

JELNo.J13,J16,J22,J24

ABSTRACT

Weprovidethefirstsystematicaccountofsummerdeclinesinwomen’slabormarketactivity.FromMaytoJuly,theemployment-to-populationratioamongprime-ageUSwomendeclinesby1.1percentagepoints,whereasmaleemploymentrises;women’stotalhoursworkedfallby9.8percent,morethantwicethedeclineamongmen.Schoolclosuresforsummerbreak—andcorrespondinglapsesinimplicitchildcare—provideaunifyingexplanationforthesepatterns.Thesummerdropinfemaleemploymentalignswithcross-statedifferencesinthetimingofschoolclosures,isconcentratedamongmotherswithyoungschool-agechildren,andcoincideswithincreasedtimespentengaginginchildcare.Decomposingthegendergapinsummerworkinterruptionsacrossjobtypesdefinedbysectorandoccupation,wefindlargecontributionsfrombothgenderdifferencesinjoballocationandgenderdifferenceswithinjobtypesinthepropensitytoexitemploymentoverthesummer.Women’ssummerworkinterruptionscontributetogendergapsinpay:women’sweeklyearningsdeclineby3.3percentoverthesummermonths,aboutfivetimesthedeclineamongmen.

BrendanM.Price

FederalReserveBoard

20thStreetandConstitutionAveNW

Washington,DC20551

brendan.m.price@

MelanieWasserman

UCLAAndersonSchoolofManagement

110WestwoodPlazaC521

LosAngeles,CA90095

andNBER

melanie.wasserman@

2

Percentagepoints(Dec.2019=0)

1Introduction

Womenandmendiffermarkedlyintheintensityandtimingoftheirwork.Relativetomen,womenworkfewerhoursperweek,havemoreconventionalworkschedules,worklessovertime,andexperiencemorecareerinterruptions

.1

Thesedifferencesinlaborsupplyalongtheextensiveandintensivemarginscanexplainaconsiderableportionofgendergapsinwagesandearnings

(Goldin,

2014;

BlauandKahn,

2017

).Butdespitedecadesofresearchintogenderdisparitiesinlaborsupply,surprisinglylittleisknownaboutgendergapsinthetimingofworkthroughouttheyear.Asastartingpoint,

Figure1

plotsnon–seasonallyadjustedlaborforceparticipationratesforwomenandmen,withJune,July,andAugustshadedgray.Astrikingseasonalpatternemerges:summeraftersummer,women’slaborforceparticipationdropssharply,whereasmen’sparticipation

remainscomparativelystable.

Thispaperprovidesthefirstsystematicaccountofsummerdeclinesinfemaleemployment.UsingCurrentPopulationSurveydataspanning1989–2019,wefirstshowthattheemployment-

to-populationratioamongprime-ageUSwomenfallsbyanaverageof1.1percentagepointsbe-

Figure1:Thesummerdropinprime-agefemalelaborforceparticipation

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

2013201420152016201720182019

WomenMen

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,LaborForceStatistics,seriesLNU01300061(men)andLNU01300062(women).

Notes:Non–seasonallyadjustedlaborforceparticipationratesamongindividualsages25–54,normalizedtozeroinDecember2019.ShadedregionscorrespondtothemonthsofJune,July,andAugust.

1See,

andPan

forexample,

Bertrand,Goldin,andKatz

(2010

);

MasandPallais

(2017

);

WiswallandZafar

(2018

);

Cort´es

(2019

);

BolotnyyandEmanuel

(2022

);

Cubas,Juhn,andSilos

(2022

);and

Wasserman

(2023

).

3

tweenMayandJuly(equivalentto1.5percentofitsMaylevel),withequalcontributionsfromincreasedunemploymentanddiminishedparticipation.Thisyearlydeclineiseconomicallymean-ingful,amountingtoalmostonethirdofthedeclineintheprime-agefemaleemploymentrateduringtheGreatRecession.Incontrast,employmentamongprime-agemenedgesupslightlythroughoutsummer.Declinesinfemaleworkactivityalongtheintensivemarginreinforcethosealongtheextensivemargin:conditionalonbeingemployed,bothwomenandmenworkfewerhoursinthesummermonths(primarilyreflectingsummervacations),butforwomenthedropislargerandin-cludesasizableincreaseinunpaidtimeoff.Combiningbothmargins,women’stotalhoursworked

contractby9.8percentfromMaytoJuly,morethantwicethedeclineamongmen.

Schoolclosuresforsummerbreak—andcorrespondinglapsesinimplicitchildcare—provideaunifyingexplanationforthesepatterns.Duringthesummer,parentsuseapatchworkofchildcarearrangements,rangingfromsummerschoolandcampstoinformalcarebyrelatives,toaccountforthesixhoursperweekdaythatchildrenpreviouslyspentinschool.Becausewomenshoulderadisproportionateshareofchildcare—asevidencedbyobservedpatternsofparentaltimeuseaswellasgenderdifferencesinsingleparenthood—theirlaborsupplyislikelytobemoreheavilyinfluencedbyseasonalreductionsinaccesstoexternalchildcare.Inaddition,preferencesforcomplementary

leisuremayleadwomentoreduceemploymentwhiletheirchildrenareonsummerbreak.

Toestablishthecentralroleofschoolclosures,weshowthatthesummerdropinfemaleem-ployment(1)istightlysynchronizedwithcross-statedifferencesinthetimingofschools’summerbreaks;(2)isconcentratedamongmothers,especiallythosewithchildrenoldenoughtoattendschoolbutyoungenoughtorequiresupervisionwhennotinschool;(3)isdrivenbyanincreaseinnon-participantswhocitehouseholdorfamilydutiesastheirmainactivitywhileoutofthelaborforce;and(4)coincideswithanincreaseinwomen’stimespentengaginginchildcare.Theseregu-laritiesareabsentormuchlessevidentamongmen.Wealsoprovideevidencethatcomplementary

leisurecanexplainatmosthalfofthesummerdropinfemaleemployment.

Thegendergapinsummeremploymentisdriveninequalpartsbygenderdifferencesinsortingacrosssectors/occupationsandbygenderdifferencesconditionalonjobtype.Thesortingtakestwoforms.First,womenaredisproportionatelyrepresentedineducationalservices,whereemploymentplummetseachsummer.Second,evenwithineducation,womenaremorelikelyto

workinoccupationsthatcontractmoresharplyoverthesummer.Althoughwomenmaychoose

4

toworkintheeducationsectorformanyreasons,workingmothersmayfindjobsinthatsectorespeciallyattractivebecausetheirworkschedulesarealignedwithschoolcalendars.Indeed,weshowthatwomen’spropensitytoworkineducationpeakspreciselywhentheirchildrenareofschool-goingage.Alongsidethesesortingeffects,womeninagivensector/occupationalsoexitemploymenteachsummeratrateshigherthantheirmalecounterparts.Withineducation,femaleteachers,managers,andbusdriversallworklessoverthesummerthanmeninthesameoccupation.

Outsideeducation,too,womenexitemploymenteachsummerathigherratesthanmen.

Schoolclosuresforsummerbreakmaycontributetogendergapsinpaybyreducingwomen’sannualhoursworked,curbingproductivity,impedinghumancapitalaccumulation,orinfluencingjobchoices.Weprovideevidencefortwosuchchannels.First,weestimatethatthesummerdropinwomen’semploymentandhoursleadstoacontemporaneousearningslossof3.3percent,aboutfivetimesthedeclineexperiencedbymen.Second,amongoccupationsrepresentedinboththeeducationandnon-educationsectors,weshowthatwomensystematicallysortintoeducationjobs.Sincejobsineducationtypicallypaylessthancomparablejobsoutsideofeducation,womenmay

betradingoffcompensationforaccesstosummerflexibility.

Thispapercontributestothevoluminousliteraturethatstudiesgenderdisparitiesinlabormarketactivityalongboththeextensiveandintensivemargins.Women’sdifferentialdemandfortemporalflexibilityinworkschedulesisoneoftheleadingexplanationsfortheremaininggender

gapsinpay(Goldin,

2014;

WiswallandZafar,

2018;

Cort´esandPan,

2019;

Cubas,Juhn,andSilos,

2022;

Adams-Prassletal.,

2023;

Wasserman,

2023

).Temporaldemandsaretypicallydefinedasthenumberandtimingofhoursworkedperdayorweek,thepredictabilityandlocationofthosehours,andtheextenttowhichtheemployer(versustheemployee)hasdiscretionoverthosehours

(MasandPallais,

2017;

BlauandWinkler,

2018;

WiswallandZafar,

2018

).Ourpaperestablishesanewdimensionoftemporalflexibility—thetimingofworkthroughouttheyear—andshowsthatchildcareconsiderationspromptwomenbothtogravitatetojobsthatprovidesummerflexibility

andtoreducetheirsummeremploymentwithinagivenjob.

Acloselyrelatedliteraturestudiesthelabormarketramificationsofschoolavailabilityandtiming.Expansionsintheavailabilityofschoolinggenerallyhavepositiveeffectsonmothers’labor

supply(Gelbach,

2002;

Cascio,

2009;

Fitzpatrick,

2012).

Withregardtothetimingofschooling,

DuchiniandVanEffenterre

(2022)findgainsinthecontinuityofmaternalemploymentwhen

5

France’sschoolweekswitchedfromhavingWednesdaysofftorunningMondaythroughFriday.Inasimilarvein,

Graves

(2013)documentsthatyear-roundschoolschedules—whichchopupthe

schoolyearintosmallerintervalsofschooling—havenegativeeffectsonmaternalemployment.Weshowhowapervasivefeatureofeducationalsystems—summerbreak—shapesthetimingofwomen’s

workthroughouttheyear.

OurpaperalsocomplementstheliteratureonthegenderedlabormarketeffectsoftheCOVID-19pandemic

.2

Despiteclearparallels,theschoolclosuresthatoccureachsummerdif-ferinimportantrespectsfromthosecausedbythepandemic.Whilepandemicschoolclosureswereunanticipated,summerschoolclosuresarepredictableeventstowhichcareerchoiceshaveampletimetorespond.Inaddition,whereaspandemicschoolclosureswereunprecedentedevents,school

closuresduetoannualsummerbreaksarealongstandingfixtureoftheUSeducationalsystem.

Wealsocontributetoabodyofresearchanalyzingseasonalregularitiesbothinthemacroe-conomy(

BarskyandMiron,

1989;

MironandBeaulieu,

1996;

OliveiandTenreyro,

2007;

Ngai

andTenreyro,

2014;

GeremewandGourio,

2018)andamongindividualworkersandhouseholds

(Moretti,

2000;

DelBonoandWeber,

2008;

CoglianeseandPrice,

2020)

.Arecurringthemeinthesepapersisthatseasonalphenomena—thoughroutinelyregardedasstatisticalnuisancestobeadjustedaway—canhaveimportantreal-worldconsequencesthatgounnoticedinadjustedoran-nualizeddata.Soundingthesametheme,wedemonstratehowseasonallapsesinpubliclyprovided

implicitchildcareshapethetimingandcontinuityofwomen’slabormarketactivity.

Section2

describesoursampleandregressionspecifications.

Section3

documentssummerdeclinesinfemaleemploymentandhours.

Section4

developsamodeloflife-cyclelaborsupplywithschoolclosuresforsummerbreak.

Section5

providesevidencethattheseschoolclosuresareindeedcentraltothesummerdropinfemaleemployment.

Section6

decomposesthegendergapinsummerworkinterruptionsbetweenandwithinjobtypes.

Section7

showsimpactsongender

gapsinpay.

Section8

concludes.

2See,amongothers,

Heggeness

(2020);

AlbanesiandKim

(2021);

Alonetal.

(2021);

Furman,Kearney,andPowell

(2021

);

Montes,Smith,andLeigh

(2021

);

Amuedo-Dorantesetal.

(2022

);

Couch,Fairlie,andXu

(2022

);

Garciaand

Cowan

(2022

);

Goldin

(2022

);

Hansen,Sabia,andSchaller

(2022

);

Montenovoetal.

(2022

);and

RussellandSun

(2020

).

6

2DataandMethodology

WetraceseasonalshiftsinlabormarketactivityusingtheCurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS),withauxiliaryanalysisdrawingontheAmericanTimeUseSurvey(ATUS).WedescribetheCPShere,

withfurtherdetailsin

AppendixB.1

.WedeferdiscussionoftheATUSuntillaterinthepaper.

2.1Sampleconstruction

TheCPSisarepresentativesurveyofUShouseholdsconductedmonthlybytheUSCensusBureauonbehalfoftheBureauofLaborStatistics.FrombasicCPSextractsprovidedbytheIntegratedPublicUseMicrodataSeries(IPUMS,

Floodetal.,

2021

),weassembleapersonxyear-monthpanelofcivilianindividualsages25–49spanningtheyears1989–2019.Wefocusonprime-ageadultstoabstractfromseasonalityinlaborsupplylinkedtoanindividual’sownschoolenrollmentandretirementdecisions;werestricttociviliansbecausekeylabormarketquestionsarenotaskedofmembersofthearmedforces.Ouranalysisperiodbeginsin1989,whentheCPSfirstreportsactualhoursworked—allowingustoexaminetheintensiveaswellastheextensivemarginoflaborinput—andendsontheeveoftheCOVID-19pandemic,whichupendedtypicalseasonalpatterns.

AppendixTableA.1

reportssummarystatisticsforourCPSsample.

CPShouseholdsarein-sampleforfourconsecutivemonths,out-of-sampleforeightmonths,andthenbackin-sampleforafinalfourmonths.Weusethecross-sectionaldimensionoftheCPStotraceseasonalityinlabormarketstocks,andweusethelongitudinaldimensiontotracklabormarketflowsbothmonth-to-monthandinback-to-backyears(

RiveraDrew,Flood,andWarren,

2014

).Forcross-sectionalanalyses,weuseIPUMSsamplingweightstoensurethatourestimatesarerepresentativeoftheprime-ageUSpopulation.Forlongitudinalanalyses,weuseiterativeproportionalfittingtoconstructsex-specificrakedsamplingweightsthatensureconsistencybe-tweenlabormarketstocksandflowsthroughoutouranalysisperiod(

Frazisetal.,

2005

).Following

MadrianandLefgren

(2000),wevalidatecross-periodindividuallinkagesonthebasisofsex,age,

andrace,andweexcludeprobablemismatchesfromourlongitudinalanalyses.

Weobservehouseholdcharacteristicsandlabormarketactivityasofthesurveyreferenceweek,whichusuallystraddlesthe12thdayofthemonth(andisthesameforallrespondentsina

givenyear-month).Wepartitionindividualsintothoseemployed,thoseunemployed,andthosenot

7

participatinginthelaborforce.Toaccountforvacation/leave-takingduringthesummermonths,weseparatelyanalyzewhetherindividualsareemployedandatworkoremployedbutabsentfromwork.Sinceemploymentcontractsintheeducationsectorcanspan9or12months,trackingwhetherornotindividualsareemployedandatworkalsosidestepsthesubtletiesofhowschoolstaffreportspellsofnon-workduringthesummermonths.WealsoleverageCPSdataonindustry,occupation,earnings,andactualhoursworkedduringthereferenceweek;statedreasonforabsenceaswellaspaidvs.unpaidleaveforthoseabsentfromwork;andreasonsfornon-participationor

unemploymentamongthosenotemployed.

Wecodeindividualsas“married”iftheirspouseispresent,absent,orseparated;wecodesingle,divorced,andwidowedindividualsas“unmarried”.Wedefineparentalstatusbasedonthepresenceorabsenceinthehouseholdofoneormoreownchildrenunderage18.Thisdefinitionencompassesadoptedchildrenandstep-childrenaswellasbiologicalchildren,butitexcludesotherchildrenresidinginthehousehold(suchasniecesandnephews)aswellasbiologicalchildrenwho

havealreadymovedout.

2.2Mainspecifications

Weemploysimpleregressionspecificationsthatrecoverthetypicalseasonalmovementsinagiventimeseries.Becausethevariationofinterestiscross-month,weaggregateourdatatotheyear-monthlevelforeachpopulationweconsider.Totraceseasonalshiftsinlabormarketactivity

withinagivenpopulation,wethenestimatetime-seriesspecificationsoftheform

yt=α+Lβm.✶{M(t)=m}+f(t)+γ.weekst+εt(1)

m5

whereytisanoutcomeinyear-montht,M(t)e{1,2,...,12}returnsthecalendarmonthforperiodt,f(t)controlsforlower-frequencytrends,andweekstisthenumberofweekselapsedsincethepreviousmonth’sreferenceweek.

3

Becauseourfocusisonsummerworkinterruptions,

wenormalizeβ5tozero,sothatthecoefficientsofinterestβmcaptureaveragedifferencesinan

3TheCPSreferenceweekissometimesshiftedtoaccommodatemajorholidays.Althoughweekstvariesacrossyearsforagivencalendarmonth(sothatγcanbeidentified),ittendstobelargerorsmallerinparticularmonthsduetotheholidayadjustment.Ourestimateswouldbemodestlybiasedwithoutthiscontrolvariable—particularlywhenweturntolabormarketflows—becauselongergapsbetweenreferenceweeksgivemoretimeforflowstooccur.

8

outcomerelativetothemonthofMay.

Toaccountflexiblybutparsimoniouslyforseculartrendsandbusiness-cycledynamicsthatmightotherwisebiasestimationofseasonalpatterns,wespecifyf(t)asalinearsplineincalendartime,withknotsatroughlyfive-yearintervalscorrespondingtoturningpointsintheprime-ageemploymentandparticipationrates.

AppendixB.2

detailsourknot-selectionprocedure,whichweadaptfromthealgorithmusedby

Dupraz,Nakamura,andSteinsson

(2019)tolocateturningpoints

intheunemploymentrate.Oursplinefunctionflexiblycaptureslow-frequencydynamicsinourcoreoutcomesofinterestand,moregenerally,allowsfornon-parametrictimetrendsinallofourspecifications.Weadditionallycontrolforthenumberofweekselapsedbetweensuccessivemonths’referenceweeks,sincethesetimeintervalsarecorrelatedwithmonthlengthandholidaytiming.Weestimate

Equation(1)

separatelyforeachofthedemographicgroupsweconsider,sincetrendandcyclicalmovementsinlabormarketoutcomesvarystronglywithsexandhouseholdstructure

(JuhnandPotter,

2006;

AlbanesiandS¸ahin,

2018;

Bard´oczy,

2022)

.

Equation(1)

isdesignedforusewithstockvariables,suchasemploymentrates.When

examininglabormarketflows,weestimatethefirst-differencedanalogueof

Equation(1):

∆yt=δm.✶{M(t)=m}+∆f(t)+θ.∆weekst+∆εt(2)

where∆ytrepresentsgrossinflows,grossoutflows,ornetflowsintoemploymentasashareoftherelevantpopulation.Inthisformulation,thecoefficientsofinterestδmcapturethemagnitudeofflowsbetweenmonthsm_1andmrelativetoApril–Mayflows,andthedifferencedsplineterms

morphintoindicatorvariablesthatallowforstructuralbreaksinflowratesattheknotdates.

Inbothstockandflowspecifications,weallowforheteroskedasticandautocorrelation-consistentstandarderrors(

NeweyandWest,

1987)correlateduptoamaximumlagof26months,a

horizonsuggestedbytheautomaticlagselectorof

NeweyandWest

(1994).4

Whenourinterestlies

thoefficients(ratherthanmanddirectly),weconstructconfidence

4Tochooseanappropriatelagstructure,weranourmainspecificationseparatelybysexandbysex×householdstructureforseveralkeyoutcomevariables(employment,participation,hoursworked,andgrossemploymentflows).Acrossthesespecifications,theoptimalbandwidthoftenequaled(andneverexceeded)27months,correspondingtoamaximallagof26months.Forconsistencyandsimplicity,weimposethissamebandwidththroughoutthepaper.

9

DifferencerelativetoMay(p.p.)

3SummerDeclinesinFemaleEmploymentandHours

Thissectionestablishesthatwomen’slabormarketactivitycontractseachsummer—alongboth

extensiveandintensivemargins—inwaysmuchlessevidentamongmen.

3.1Women’semploymentdropsinthesummer

e—hee

tcnooenffic-piofrno—mgbiaf

measureexpressedasapercentageofthecorrespondingpopulation.Asshownintheleftpanel,theprime-agefemaleemployment-to-populationratio(EPOP)declinesby1.1percentagepoints(p.p.)betweenMayandJuly—amountingto1.5percentofitsMaylevel—andthenreboundsstronglyinthefall.Unemploymentandnon-participationcontributeequallytothesummerreductioninemployment,witheachrising55basispointsfromMaytoJuly.Incontrast,prime-agemale

employmentactuallyrisesslightlyoverthesummermonths.

Thesummerdeclineinfemaleemploymentissizable,equalingalmostonethirdofthedecline

inprime-agefemaleEPOPinthewakeoftheGreatRecession.5

Asshownin

AppendixFigureA.1,

Figure2:Seasonalshiftsinpercapitaemployment,unemployment,andnon-participation

Women

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

MayJulySept.Nov.Jan.Mar.May

JuneAug.Oct.Dec.Feb.Apr.

Men

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

MayJulySept.Nov.Jan.Mar.May

JuneAug.Oct.Dec.Feb.Apr.

EmploymentNon-participationUnemployment

Source:CurrentPopulationSurvey.

Notes:Coefficients）fromestimating

Equation(1)

,separatelybysex,forrespondentsages25–49groupedtotheyear-monthlevel.Eachmeasureisexpressedasashareofthecorrespondingpopulation.Barsshow95percentconfidenceintervalsbasedonNewey-Weststandarderrors.Inthisandmanysubsequentfigures,coefficientsforMayarenormalizedtozero,andplottedpointsareoffsethorizontallyforvisualclarity.

5Prime-agefemaleEPOPfell3.7percentagepointsfromthestartoftheGreatRecessioninDecember2007

10

DifferencerelativetoMay(p.p.)

Apr.→May

May→June

June→July

July→Aug.

Aug.→Sept.

Sept.→Oct.

Oct.→Nov.

Nov.→Dec.

Dec.→Jan.

Jan.→Feb.

Feb.→Mar.

Mar.→Apr.

Apr.→May

May→June

June→July

July→Aug.

Aug.→Sept.

Sept.→Oct.

Oct.→Nov.

Nov.→Dec.

Dec.→Jan.

Jan.→Feb.

Feb.→Mar.

Mar.→Apr.

thesummerdropalsoappearsrelativelystableovertime,withnoobvioustrendorcyclicalvari-ationinitsmagnitude.Inaddition,

AppendixFigureA.2

showsthatthefemaledropinsummer

employmentappearsconsistentlyacrossage,education,andracialandethnicgroups.

Employmentalsocontractssharplywiththeonsetofwinter,especiallyformen.Becausethemaindriversofwinterworkinterruptions—adverseweather,whichtriggerslayoffsinmale-dominatedsectorslikeconstruction,andapost-holidayretreatinconsumerspending—arenotoperativeinthesummermonths,weconfineouranalysistosummerworkinterruptions,thoughwe

continuetoshowyear-roundseasonalmovementstoplacethesummerincontext.

3.2Theemploymentdropmostlystemsfromincreasedoutflows

Thesummerdropinfemaleemploymentcouldreflectweakinflowstoemployment,strongoutflowsfromemployment,orboth.Alongtheinflowmargin,somewomenmightchoosetodelaylabormarketentryuntiltheendofthesummerorconductonlyalimitedjobsearchduringthesummer

months.Alongtheoutflowmargin,womenmaybesubjecttosummerlayoffsorchoosetoquit

Figure3:DecompositionofseasonalchangesinEPOPintoexcessinflowsvs.depressedoutflows

Women

1

.5

0

-.5

-1

Men

1

.5

0

-.5

-1

NetchangeinEPOP

Inflowcomponent

Outflowcomponent

Source:CurrentPopulationSurvey.

Notes:Additivedecompositionofmonth-to-monthchangesinprime-ageEPOPintocontributionsfromabove-averageinflowsandbelow-averageoutflows.ThenetchangeinEPOPreportscoefficientsestimatedfromthefirst-differencespecificationin

Equation(2).

Positivebarsegments(respectively,negativesegments)indicatethatagivenmarginboosts(lowers)EPOPinagivenmonth.See

AppendixC

fordetailsontheinflowandoutflowterms,whicharetransformationsofthecoefficientsobtainedusinggrossmonthlytransitionsintooroutofemployment.

(72.4percent)toitsnadirinSeptember2011(68.7percent).Source:BLSLaborForceStatistics,seriesLNS12300062.

11

DifferencerelativetoMay(hrs./week)

100xlogchangerelativetoMay

e

ti

t

sfsr

A

-c

d

dsg-s

betransformedtoexpressseasonalchangesinemploymentratesasexcessinflowsminusexcessoutflows.Intuitively,employmen