统计数字资料

MacroLecture3(S2023)

OutlineCh.23--MeasuringaNation’sIncomeCh.24--MeasuringtheCost-of-living引言:fromindividualtoeconomyP1C1+P2C2nogreaterthanIprice-takingconsumer’sconstraint

Butnowforthenation…Anydifficulties?(watchout:plannedvs.realized)

11/28Ch.23--MeasuringaNation’sIncomeMotivationQ:Canyoufindagoodjobfouryearslater?A:Itdependsonthemarkets.Enterthelaborforceinayrofeconomicexpansionvs.inayrofeconomiccontractionConditionofoveralleconomyaffectsus!Newspapers:statistics統計數字(資料)--fortheeconomyWhatarethey?Howcanwepredictorchangethem?22/28Herearesomemostimportant(macroeconomic)statisticsGDP:measuretotalincomeofeveryoneintheeconomyInflationrate:therateatwhichaveragepricesarerisingUnemploymentrate:percentageoflaborforcethatisoutofworkRetailsales:totalspending(byhouseholds)at(retail)stores33/28FrommicrotomacroMicroeconomics:thestudyofhowhouseholdsandfirmsmakedecisionsandhowtheyinteractinmarketsMacroeconomics:thestudyofeconomy-widephenomena,includinginflation,unemployment,andeconomicgrowth.Keyobservation:economyisjustacollectionofmanyhouseholdsandfirmsinteractinginmanymarketsHence,botharecloselylinked44/28Frommicrotomacro(continued)Closelylinked;differinginmethodology!LetdataspeakfirstWaystomeasureperformance:nationalincome [Ch.23]cost-of-living(pricelevel) [Ch.24]

welljustified.55/28Understandingincomeandexpenditure(p.500)Foraneconomyasawhole,incomemustequalexpenditure.Why?Hints:recallthecircularflowdiagram(p.501)alsonextslideEachtransactionhas(atleast)twopartiesinvolved.Onlyactivitiesmatter,whichcannotbedouble-counted.66/28circularflowdiagram(aslightlycomplicatedversion)

政府金融體系政府支出G稅負T家計廠商儲蓄S投資

I要素所得生產原因最終財貨消費C77/28ContinuedfromlastslideAnyshortcoming?Y:=C+I+GY:=C+S+THowtointerpretY:=C+I+G+(X-M)?88/28Understandingincomeandexpenditure(continued)Foraneconomyasawhole,incomemustequalexpenditure.

$

PartyA

partyB

(onetransaction)

good

Contributesequallytoeconomy’sincome

andtoeconomy’sexpenditure99/28Anyrelatedissues(notinecon)?Wemayconsider:ForeignexchangemktsGivenmandatoryattendancecheckingmechanism

操行扣分學業扣分Penalizingbothsidescaughtinundertakingillegalactivities(賄賂、賄選)1010/28definitionsGDP(grossdomesticproduct)

Themarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime,usuallyayear.ComponentsofGDP:GDP:=C+I+G+(X-M)NX:=X–MSeep.504forothermeasuresofnationalincome1111/28Definitions(continued)NominalGDP:productionofgoodsandservicesvaluedatcurrentpricesGDPRealGDP:productionofgoodsandservicesvaluedatconstantprices

基期seenextslideforexamplesGDPdeflator:=(GDP/RealGDP)(100)1212/28basicideaaboutGDP(whynotGNP?)P1 P2 C1 C2yr10 50 100 20 199020 60 80 10 1992For1990,(10)(100)+(50)(20)=2023For1992,(20)(80)+(60)(10)=2200doingbetter?有績效？ave.pricein1990, 30ave.pricein1992, 40Q:CanwegofromGDPtothechangeinprices？1313/28物價指數、GNP、GDP、realGDP

startingpoint:

computingGDPP1 P2 C1 C2yr10 50 100 20 199020 60 80 10 1992For1990,(10)(100)+(50)(20)=2023 GDPFor1992,(20)(80)+(60)(10)=2200 GDP1414/28將「名目產值變化」分解(decompose)motivation:

GDP只是衡量國內名目產值(basedoncontemporaryorcurrentprices)。分析GDP變化，肇因有二：「物價水準」或「實質產量」(orboth)。From(nominal)GDP[(名目)GDP]torealGDP[實質GDP]:example

--(88000-50000)/50000=0.76

產值增加率19962023

pricequantitymarketvaluepricequantitymarketvaluebread4010004000050140070000haircut20050100003006018000(nominal)GDP

50000880001515/28(nominal)GDPandrealGDP(continued) 19962023

pricequantitymarketvaluepricequantitymarketvaluebread4010004000050140070000haircut20050100003006018000nominalGDP5000088000選定1996為Baseyear19962023(in1996prices)

1996pricequantitymarketvalue1996pricequantitymarketvaluebread4010004000040140056000haircut20050100002006012023realGDP5000068000(68000-50000)/50000=0.36實質產值增加率(vs.0.76lastslide)1616/28介紹(nominal)GDP、realGDP、平減指數1996GDP500002023GDP880001996asthebaseyear

1996realGDP仍然是500002023realGDP則是680002023GDPdeflator:=[(2023GDP)/(2023realGDP)](100)=129(seep.298)not1.29緣此，由1996到2023(加權)平均物價上漲約29%1996GDPdeflator=?leftasexercise!1717/28qualityoflife,well-being,welfareGDPpercapita

(平均每人國內生產毛額)代表一國人民之福利水準或購買力crosssectiondatain2023

GDPpercapita(美元)GDP(億美元)日本 37559(1) 47653(2)美國 34911(3) 98246(1)瑞士 33397(4) 2395(19)香港 24791(8) 1654(25)英國 25217(9) 14402(4)德國 22757(15) 18725(3)法國 22185(17) 13086(5)我國 13985(24) 3094(17)約NTD480000中國(大陸) 855 10799(6)不足NTD300001818/28國民所得統計

backgroundNationalincomeaccounting

國民所得統計(會計帳)–SimonKuznets1971諾貝爾獎得主;deceased1985我國:起自1950s1978完整Simplestruleofthumb:

一人支出，必是另一人收入Y:=C+I+G(expenditureapproach)支出流向Y:=C+S+T(incomeapproach)所得支配1919/28Y:=C+I+G(expenditureapproach)三部門對最終商品之需求Elementaryandrougheconomicidea:Ys=Yd(:=C+I+G)macroequilibriuminfinalgoodsmarkets刺激內需Cgoesup鼓勵(國內)投資Igoesup政府支出Gincreases(Keynesianflavoreffectivedemand)2020/28AboutI(關於「投資支出」)Investmentexpenditure

係指grossinvestmentexpenditure(投資支出毛額).Netinvestmentexpenditure:=grossinvestmentexpenditure-depreciation(onfixedcapital).投資支出毛額，即資本形成:=

(本期)fixedcapitalformation+inventorychange.1974oilcrisis我國投資支出甚大why?

Not

(本期)fixedcapitalformationup

butthelatter2121/28關於「投資支出」(補充)(本期)fixedcapitalformation

包括新機器設備新建建築物(residentialandnon-residential)

inventory

包括原料半成品未售出之製成品2222/28AboutG(關於「政府消費支出」)including:國防武器、教育、通訊運輸、司法警務無市場價格時，以投入成本估計excluding:

移轉性支出

(transferpayments)

無償給付:退休年金、失業或災難救濟金911;921重建誤解(1)crowdingout(2)debt2323/28WhathappenstoGNPorGDP?

一個有經驗經濟學家和一個沒那麼有經驗經濟學家一起沿著馬路散步，經過一堆狗屎。有經驗經濟學家說：「假如你吃掉它，我就給你五百萬元。」沒那麼有經驗經濟學家在他腦袋裡求解他最適決策，發現吃掉那堆狗屎能够提升效用水準，於是他把狗屎吃了，並且賺到了錢。他們次日散步，差點踩到另一堆屎。沒那麼有經驗經濟學家說了：「現在，假如你吃掉這堆屎，我就給你五百萬元。」有經驗經濟學家也在腦袋裡計算，最後他也選擇吃掉屎并且賺到了錢。他們又繼續往前散步。沒那麼有經驗經濟學家開始思考了，他說：「聽著！我們身上錢跟此前一樣多，可是我們都吃了一堆屎，我們福利有比較高嗎？」有經驗經濟學家說：「沒錯！可是我們已經在兩天內創造了一千萬元交易。」

WhathappenstoGNPorGDP?2424/28SolvingpuzzlesHint:Y=C+I+G家計部門

何不讓經濟部長與經建會主委打賭一整夜以增加GNP(orGDP)?燒毀1,000,000元減少GNP(orGDP)?2525/28GNP

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GDP(trueingeneral)2023Taiwan(R.O.C.)

Grossdomesticproduct(GDP國內生產毛額)為