证券公司财务预测与估值模型

证券公司模型SecuritiesCompanyModel,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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,可比公司分析ComparablesAnalysis,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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,公司名称,股价,总股本,流通股,总市值,,总资产收益率,,,,,,净资产收益率,,,,,,每股收益（元/股）,,,,,,每股净资产（元/股）,,,,,,市盈率,,,,,,市净率,,,,

,,（元，2012-9-24）,（百万股）,（百万股）,（百万元）,,10A,11A,12E,13E,14E,,10A,11A,12E,13E,14E,,10A,11A,12E,13E,14E,,10A,11A,12E,13E,14E,,10A,11A,12E,13E,14E,,10A,11A,12E,13E,14E

,中信证券,10.77,"11,017","9,815","118,652",,6.7%,8.4%,2.8%,3.1%,3.6%,,14.5%,6.6%,5.6%,7.3%,16.0%,,1.13,1.14,0.45,0.56,0.65,,6.39,7.86,8.00,8.44,8.98,,9.5x,9.4x,24.0x,19.4x,16.7x,,1.7x,1.4x,1.3x,1.3x,1.2x

,海通证券,8.66,"9,585","8,092","83,004",,3.3%,3.1%,3.3%,3.8%,3.9%,,6.5%,7.0%,6.5%,7.6%,7.9%,,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.47,0.55,,4.64,4.70,6.02,6.44,7.00,,20.2x,24.2x,22.2x,18.5x,15.8x,,1.9x,1.8x,1.4x,1.3x,1.2x

,广发证券,12.22,"5,919","2,455","72,334",,8.7%,2.4%,3.5%,3.5%,3.6%,,6.4%,8.8%,8.0%,9.4%,17.9%,,1.39,0.69,0.47,0.56,0.65,,3.28,5.34,5.59,6.06,6.59,,8.8x,17.8x,26.1x,22.0x,18.8x,,3.7x,2.3x,2.2x,2.0x,1.9x

,华泰证券,8.90,"5,600","2,085","49,840",,3.3%,1.8%,2.4%,2.7%,2.5%,,5.3%,8.0%,6.3%,8.4%,10.3%,,0.61,0.31,0.38,0.48,0.55,,5.87,5.93,6.18,6.31,6.65,,14.7x,28.4x,23.7x,18.5x,16.2x,,1.5x,1.5x,1.4x,1.4x,1.3x

,招商证券,9.68,"4,661","2,494","45,119",,3.4%,2.4%,2.5%,2.6%,2.6%,,8.1%,8.4%,7.5%,8.7%,13.4%,,0.90,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.62,,5.14,5.29,5.67,6.11,6.52,,10.8x,22.5x,21.7x,18.2x,15.6x,,1.9x,1.8x,1.7x,1.6x,1.5x

,光大证券,11.34,"3,418","3,418","38,760",,3.7%,3.1%,4.7%,5.5%,6.0%,,6.8%,12.9%,12.1%,17.1%,9.3%,,0.62,0.43,0.49,0.59,0.71,,6.65,6.28,6.63,7.33,7.57,,18.4x,26.4x,23.0x,19.4x,15.9x,,1.7x,1.8x,1.7x,1.5x,1.5x

,宏源证券,17.13,"1,986","1,461","34,024",,4.7%,2.7%,2.7%,2.8%,2.8%,,8.9%,9.5%,8.8%,9.1%,17.8%,,0.89,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.73,,3.67,3.59,6.48,6.91,6.42,,19.3x,39.4x,32.8x,27.6x,23.5x,,4.7x,4.8x,2.6x,2.5x,2.7x

,方正证券,4.09,"6,100","3,315","24,949",,4.5%,0.9%,1.9%,2.2%,2.8%,,1.0%,5.5%,3.7%,7.9%,14.0%,,0.26,0.02,0.10,0.13,0.18,,1.42,2.33,2.41,2.51,2.59,,15.6x,169.0x,40.8x,31.1x,22.9x,,2.9x,1.8x,1.7x,1.6x,1.6x

,国元证券,10.58,"1,964","1,964","20,780",,3.4%,2.4%,2.2%,2.1%,2.1%,,3.8%,3.9%,3.5%,4.1%,6.1%,,0.47,0.28,0.29,0.35,0.42,,7.63,7.53,7.74,8.01,8.38,,22.6x,37.3x,36.1x,30.5x,25.5x,,1.4x,1.4x,1.4x,1.3x,1.3x

,长江证券,8.45,"2,371","2,371","20,037",,3.6%,1.4%,3.8%,4.5%,5.6%,,3.0%,12.6%,11.8%,22.2%,13.0%,,0.57,0.15,0.31,0.37,0.49,,4.02,4.85,5.19,5.49,5.70,,14.8x,57.7x,26.9x,22.6x,17.3x,,2.1x,1.7x,1.6x,1.5x,1.5x

,西南证券,8.55,"2,323","1,642","19,858",,4.3%,1.3%,3.0%,3.8%,3.9%,,0.9%,6.1%,5.1%,7.0%,11.6%,,0.35,0.04,0.22,0.29,0.34,,4.79,4.26,4.48,4.70,4.99,,24.7x,207.0x,38.3x,29.7x,25.1x,,1.8x,2.0x,1.9x,1.8x,1.7x

,山西证券,8.19,"2,400","1,458","19,654",,2.7%,1.3%,3.5%,3.9%,4.2%,,3.1%,9.2%,8.0%,10.5%,7.0%,,0.18,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.19,,2.58,2.48,2.58,2.70,2.85,,45.4x,105.8x,60.8x,50.2x,42.3x,,3.2x,3.3x,3.2x,3.0x,2.9x

,兴业证券,8.84,"2,200","1,580","19,448",,3.3%,2.1%,2.4%,2.7%,2.9%,,4.8%,7.0%,6.1%,7.9%,9.1%,,0.35,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.38,,3.82,3.83,3.96,4.17,4.46,,25.5x,48.4x,34.1x,27.8x,23.5x,,2.3x,2.3x,2.2x,2.1x,2.0x

,国海证券,9.19,"1,792",460,"16,468",,4.3%,2.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,,2.5%,7.3%,4.7%,10.2%,9.1%,,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.25,0.32,,0.12,1.50,na,na,na,,101.7x,98.2x,54.4x,37.3x,28.9x,,77.2x,6.1x,na,na,na

,西部证券,12.85,"1,200",200,"15,420",,3.9%,2.0%,2.1%,2.2%,2.3%,,6.9%,7.8%,7.0%,8.0%,17.1%,,0.53,0.22,0.24,0.30,0.33,,2.60,2.64,3.87,4.13,4.41,,24.1x,58.6x,54.2x,42.5x,38.4x,,5.0x,4.9x,3.3x,3.1x,2.9x

,东吴证券,7.67,"2,000",500,"15,340",,3.0%,1.3%,1.9%,2.2%,2.2%,,3.0%,6.3%,4.6%,7.7%,14.0%,,0.39,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.26,,2.09,3.69,na,na,na,,19.7x,69.0x,46.3x,35.0x,29.9x,,3.7x,2.1x,na,na,na

,东北证券,15.22,979,639,"14,894",,2.8%,0.9%,1.0%,1.1%,1.0%,,5.1%,6.5%,5.5%,7.9%,15.2%,,0.82,0.25,0.20,0.25,0.31,,3.54,3.15,4.82,5.03,3.93,,18.5x,61.4x,77.0x,61.9x,49.0x,,4.3x,4.8x,3.2x,3.0x,3.9x

,国金证券,12.96,"1,000","1,000","12,963",,4.0%,2.3%,6.0%,6.2%,6.2%,,6.7%,8.1%,7.4%,8.3%,13.9%,,0.42,0.22,0.32,0.40,0.46,,3.02,3.24,4.05,4.43,4.85,,30.9x,59.3x,40.4x,32.5x,28.0x,,4.3x,4.0x,3.2x,2.9x,2.7x

,太平洋,5.44,"1,654","1,654","8,996",,3.4%,2.9%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,,7.3%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,10.4%,,0.14,0.10,na,na,na,,1.18,1.28,na,na,na,,40.1x,53.2x,na,na,na,,4.6x,4.3x,na,na,na

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