设计消费者需要的年金产品

DesigningannuityproductsforconsumersneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworth

Partner,WatsonWyattmike.wadsworth@May2003 AgendaOptionsforgeneratinglifetimeincomeConsumerneedsInvestingforlifeManagingsurvivalAnewmodel"Idon'twanttoachieveimmortalitythroughmywork-Iwanttoachieveitbynotdying"WoodyAllen"Peoplewillsoonlivetwiceaslongastoday,andhavethepotentialtolivefor1200years"JohnHarris,ScientistMemberofUKHumanGeneticsCommissionasreportedSundayTimes,25June2000Funeralfirmhitby29%profitfallNotenoughpeoplearedyingintheUS,accordingtoServiceCorporationInternational,theworld'slargestfuneralservicescompanyTimes,2October1999Scaleofopportunities

Peopleover65Source:USBureauoftheCensusAnnuityversusbondyieldIncometakenmonthlyinadvance;interestrate5%paAnnuityincomebrokendownintocapitalelementandthebalance(ieinterestelement)Optionsforretirementincome100%PensionerInvestmentGuaranteesPensioner

Survival

GuaranteesTraditionalAnnuityLump

Sum?©WatsonWyattPartners2000

0%0%Traditionalannuities

SomeimportantquestionsHowmuchdotheguaranteescost?Howvaluablearetheytocustomers?earlyinretirement/laterinretirement?accordingtootherassets?Howwilllifestylesandneedschangeinretirement?Willcustomerschangetheirmindsovertime?Keyissuesfordesign

ThePensionerChoice(investment)Flexibility(income)Protection(survival)Communication(tradeoffs)FailsafeAlifetimeassetallocationmodel

TraditionalEitherlumpsumOrannuityRetireRetireOptimumreturn

(equities?)Optimumreturn

(equities?)CashBondsBonds©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Alifetimeassetallocationmodel

ProposedOptimumreturn

(equities?)Optimumreturn

(equities?)BondsRetire©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Effectofinvestmentgrowthon

supportableincome-malesBaseincomesupportablecalculatedat5%.

Incomemultiple=incomesupportableassumingextrainvestmentreturnresultingfromequityinvestmentof1,2,3,4or5%paaftercharges,dividedbybaseincome.Mortalityaspreviously©WatsonWyattPartners2000

PlanningretirementincomeTheconsumerproblemis..... HowlongwillIlive?LifespanisadistributionnotanexpectationDistributionofdeaths

Retirementatage60Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001©WatsonWyattPartners2000

DistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge75now©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001DistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge90now©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001Standarddeviationofdeaths,as

aproportionoflifeexpectancyMortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001©WatsonWyattPartners2000

MethodofcalculationNon-annuitisedfundIncomeeachyeardefinedas:

Fundvalue/annuityfactorAnnuityfactorcalculatedatassumedinvestmentreturnof0%or7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnachievedequalto7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnassumed:(exclexpenses)Investmentreturnachieved:7%pa(exclexpenses)Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Initialfund£100,000Maleaged60atoutset©WatsonWyattPartners2000Progressionofincome:

spreadingfundoverfuturelifeexpectationProgressionofincome-annuitisedfundversus

non-annuitisedfund Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Maleaged60atoutset©WatsonWyattPartners2000

SupplierviewofmortalityguaranteesMortalityimprovingHowfast 1%pa?2%pa?3%pa?Infuture?Scopetoreview?Guaranteesare(too)expensive?Mortalitydrift-

uncertainfutureimprovementsBothchartsshowexpecteddistributionofdeathsformale

aged60in1992,allowingforfutureimprovements.PMA92representsthemorerecentestimateCross-subsidyoperatesacrosseitherdistribution,andlongevityprotectionislargelyretainedevenifmortalityisreviewedDriftinanticipateddistributionallowingfornewerevidence©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Excesssurvivors-

PMA92comparedwithPMA80Costtoannuityproviderofnotreviewingmortalityrelatestopaymentsmadetothosesurvivorswhowerenotexpectedtolivesolong-

theredzone©WatsonWyattPartners2000

NewmodelInvestmentfund+InsuranceagainstsurvivalLifetimeincomemodel-

benefitstatement

Units UnitPrice Value

£ £StartofYear 10,000 10.00 100,000AnnuityPayments (975) (10,000)SurvivalBonus 295 3,000EffectofChangesinUnitPrice 4,860EndofYear 9,320 10.50 97,860TargetIncome

forNextYear 10,000©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Equivalentadditionalfund

growthresultingfrommortality

cross-subsidyMortality:PMA92/PFA92CalendarYear2001©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Equivalentadditionalfundgrowth

MF

%pa%pa75 4.1 2.885 13.1 8.495 33.2 21.2NB:PartialsurvivalprotectionpossibleFlexibleannuityreviewcycleInitialmax/minincomecalc'dAnnuitantselectsincomebetweenmaxandmintonextreviewPaymentsdeductedaccordingtoannuitantrequirements/survivalcredits/investment

returnsaddedFundbalancedeterminedatreviewMax/minincometonextreviewcalc'd©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Flexibleincome

ThecorridorIncomelevel

chosenbytheannuitantannualmaximumannualminimum©WatsonWyattPartners2001

Communicationofbenefits

Incomeprojections-incometaken

initially=incomesupportableat7%pa©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-incometaken

initially=1.1xincomesupportable

at7%pa©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-incometaken

initially=0.9xincomesupportable

at7%pa©WatsonWyattPartners2000

Incomeprojections-

variableinvestmentmodel©WatsonWyattPartners2000

FailsafeDefaultinvestmentstrategies,eg

equitiesbondsoverlifetimeProgrammedswitchingtoguaranteeathighageProgrammedswitchingtoguaranteeonsustainedmarketfall,egJapanscenarioVoluntaryswitchingNB:MorefeaturesbettersystemsAnnuitydevelopments-unbundlingdynamicMoreimpairedlife/

enhancedannuitiesOtherg'teedannuitiesmoreexpensive/lessprofitableMoreequity

basedannuitiesWeakerlongevityguarantees©WatsonWyattPartners2002

EffectofLTCrideronincomeBeforeLTCclaimAfterLTCclaimTheproductisavariableannuitypriortoclaim,thenafixedLTCannuityafterclaim,plusacontinuingvariableannuity(whichcouldconverttoaconventionalannuity).Thelevelofbenefitischosenbytheinsured.C

L

A

I

MIncomesupportablewithnoLTCrider

(normalincome)LTCincome=50%ofincomepre-claim

Income=~96.5%ofnormalLTCincome=100%ofincomepre-claim

Income=~92.5%ofnormalAdvantagesoflifetimeincomemodelPensionersnaturalextensiontoDCpensionvehiclechooseandvaryassetallocationflexibilityofincomeoptimiseincomerelativetoriskInsurers/fundmanagerslongevityriskmanageablepotentialsegmentationofrisksnotrestrictedbyavailablebond(orother)investmentsglobalmultimarketapplicationAlsofinancialplanners/bondsuppliersDesigningannuityproductsforconsumerneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworth

Partner,WatsonWyattmike.wadsworth@May2002網路行銷推廣策略Loremipsumdolorsitamet,consecteturadipisicingelit.大綱01030204推廣組合推廣目標的設定整合性網路行銷溝通推廣金字塔0506網際網路廣告工具網際網路促銷工具推廣組合最常見的促銷活動：02LOREMIPSUMLOREMIPSUM廣告是一種付費的溝通方式，其是由可認明的廣告業主，透過大眾媒體來說服或影響消費者兩項優點：它是在輕鬆的氣氛下，將產品資訊傳遞給消費者。它不會對消費者形成心須立刻作決定的壓力傳統的廣告具有兩項限制無法達到個人化調整或修改時較缺乏彈性網路行銷最常被提到的促銷方式而網路廣告市的利潤，也是網站經營者的財務計畫中，被認為是成本回收的主要來源公共關係公共關係(PublicRelations)簡稱公關利用資訊去影響民意公眾報導(Publicity)報紙及電視上的新聞報導不用支付費用的一種方式組織並無法擁有充足的主控權具有較高的公信力若組織平時用心於公共關係的建立，與媒體廣結善緣，則可掌握較多的正面公眾報導。人員推銷最傳統的促銷方式人與人面對面接觸時，容易獲得較高的信賴感對於產品本身較複雜、需要詳細介紹及示範者，特別適合人員推銷的方式限制：(1)單位成本較高(2)同時可接觸的總數量有限虛擬人員具互動性的網站人機介面，銷售促進除了人員推銷、廣告、公眾報導以外，其他可以促進產品銷售的行銷活動諸如陳列、展售會、展覽會等等，都可泛稱銷售促進像是贈品、折價券、虛擬商展、競賽、抽獎、打折等等，都是銷售促進的有效方式網路上常見的例子，有麥當勞、肯德基、好樂迪、達美樂等公司所提供可直接從網路列印的折價券、以及PChome所提供可以在網路上使用的e-coupon等等還有一些網路社群所提供的虛擬貨弊或累積點數，除了可增加網友忠誠度，其實也具有銷售促進的功能。来自

....中国最大的资料库下载銷售點促銷工具是廣告的延伸零售店面所張貼的促銷海報相當高比例的消費者，是屬於未經規劃而臨時決定購買者在最終銷售點，再以陳列、海報等等產品資訊來提醒或刺激消費者的購物慾在網站上一樣可以有類似的銷售點促銷工具直銷具有高度互動性、可發生在任何地點、便利、效率網路上特別適合直銷：(1)網路媒體具備雙向溝通的互動性。(2)網路上本來就不受到地理限制。(3)網路本來也具便利與效率的優勢。(4)很多網站是由製造商直接規劃經營的。(5)在網路世界裏，中間商有減少的趨勢。

人員銷售

電話行銷

型錄

展售會、研討會與教育訓練

直接郵件(DM)

公共關係

媒體廣告

窄

寬

目標客戶涵蓋率

每次接觸的成本

高

低

推廣金字塔推廣目標(1)告知(Inform)針對新產品在導入市場或在產品生命週期的導入期，賣方特別需要告知消費者新產品的用途、性能。有效的告知，可以將消費者的需要變成慾求提前告知或宣示(Preannouncement)被廣泛運用在軟體業，其中除了告知與教育的功能之外，還含有欺敵的策略意含推廣目標(2)說服(Persuade)說服通常被運用在產品生命週期的成長期，因為競爭者開始出現。說服消費者該品牌比競爭者品牌的產品優越或較符合消費者的需求。讓消費者對於品牌建立正面的態度與偏好。推廣目標(3)提醒(Remind)被運用在產品生命週期的成熟期，因為市場上競爭者開始大量出現消費者對產品的效能與品牌的認同都已建立，此時是以提醒為主要目標再次喚醒消費者使用該品牌愉悅的經驗與滿足感反應層級模式

AIDA(Attention,Interest,Desire,andAction)模式消費者在接受推廣活動時，所經驗的一系列的反應，就是所謂的反應層級模式。而其中最有名的是AIDA(Attention,Interest,Desire,andAction)模式注意(Attention)興趣(Interest)慾望(Desire)行動(Action)推廣效果的衡量消費者購買決策流程(1)需求的確認(2)資訊處理(3)產品評估(4)購買決策(5)購買行為(6)購後的評估推廣目標告知說服提醒AIDA模式注意興趣慾望行動整合性網路行銷溝通

(IntegrationMarketingCommunication,IMC)透過不同的媒體所傳播的訊息，可能造成訊息衝突而使行銷溝通無法發揮多重媒體的綜效，反而彼此相互抵消行銷溝通的效果，「整合性行銷溝通」的概念的出現。就是整合各種不同的傳播工具，傳遞出一致性的訊息給目標客戶群整合性網路行銷溝通

(IntegratedInternetMarketingI2M)產品的行銷消費者態度的形成企業形象的建立氣氛流行文化員工產品與服務垃圾公關新聞故事口耳相傳廣告符號個人經驗.整合性網路行銷溝通(IntegratedInternetMarketing)品牌廣告與直接回應廣告廣告可以影響消費者的認知、情感與態度(品牌態度與形象)，進而改變購買決策與行為，也就是所謂的品牌廣告。廣告也可以促進直接回應的銷售，消費者在看到廣告後，引發消費者主動詢問(慾望)進而購買(行動)来自

....中国最大的资料库下载品牌廣告與直接回應廣告

行銷溝通效果衡量AIDA模式注意興趣慾望行動品牌廣告直接回應廣告網路行銷溝通效果衡量I1=知覺效率指標(AwarenessEfficiency)I2=吸引力效率指標(AttractabilityEfficiency)I3=接觸率效率指標(ContactEfficiency)I4=交談效率指標(ConversionEfficiency)I5=留存效率指標(RetentionEfficiency)I1=Q1/Q0I2=Q2/Q1I3=Q3/A2I4=Q4/Q3I5=Q5/Q4Q0=Surfers瀏覽者人數Q1=AwareSurfers知曉瀏覽者人數Q2=Hits被吸引上網人數Q3=ActiveVisitors積極訪客人數Q4=Purchases購買人數Q5=Repurchases重覆購買人數網路線上遊戲與置