英语基础2014考研35篇阅读文章audio sharing the pain

SharingtheIncreasingbudgetdeficitsandrisingernmentdebtsarelikelytoentailfiercepoliticalbattles—notleastbetweentaxpayersandpublic-sectorworkersWHENtimesarehard,manypeoplearetemptedtolettheircreditcardstakethestrainforawhile.Andwheneconomiesfallintorecession,manyernmentsarehappytolettheirbudgetdeficitswiden,totidetheeconomyover.Sensibleasthismaybe,deficitsinseveralcountrieshaveincreasedsomuchandsofastduringtheeconomiccrisisofthepast18monthsorsothatitisgenerallyagreedthatremedialactionwillbeneededinthemediumterm.Deficitsof10%ormoreofGDPcannotbesustainedforlong,especiallywhennervousmarketsdriveupthecostofservicingthegrowingdebt.也许很有道理，一些国家的赤字在过去18个月的经济里增加的太多太快以至于普遍认MarketpressureexinswhydeficitshavecometotheforeinsouthernEurope.GreeceandPortugal,inparticular,haveseenasharpriseintheircostoffinanceandsomeinvestorshavequestionedtheirabilitytorollovertheirdebt.ButdeficitswillalsobeatthecentreoftheingBritishelectionn,andinAmericathe“teaparty”movementhaslaunchedapopulistnagainstrisingernmentThereisnoabsoluteruleonwhendeficitsorpublicdebtsaretoohighrelativetoaneconomy’ssize.Priortothecrisisthegeneralconsensuswasthatrichcountriescouldsafelyhavepublicdebtsworth60%ofGDP.YetalthoughJapan’sdebthasexceededitsGDPformanyyears,theernmenthasyettosufferafinancingcrisis,perhapsbecauseithasalargenumberofwillingdomesticbuyersofitsbonds.Butwhenthemarketsdoloseconfidenceinaernment’sfiscalrectitude,acrisiscanarisequitequickly,forcingcountriesintopainfulpoliticaldecisions.赤字或公债相对经济总量占多少份额算高并没有一个数值之前的普遍共识是发达国家负债额不超过GDP60%就是安全的。虽然的负债已经很多年都超过了其GDP， inly,economicgrowthmakesmakers’livesmucheasier.Growthreducesdeficitsautomaticallybyincreasingtaxrevenuesandcuttingspendingonunemploymentbenefitsandsoforth.Astheeconomygrows,deficitsfall,debts emoresustainable,lighteningtheadjustmentburdenandreassuringinvestors.Nationshaverecoveredfromhugedebtburdensinthepast,oftenintheaftermathofwars,whenmenandresourceswerereleasedfrom andputtomoreproductivework.Whenpoliticiansturntotoday’sdeficitproblems,itisvitalthattheychoosepoliciesthatenhancelong-termgrowthprospects.Theywillnotlackopportunities:inseveralcountries,forexample,increasesinstatutorypensionagesandotherreformsthatmakelabourmarketsmoreflexibleareanywayoverdue.Itwould,however,beunwisetoassumethataburstofrapidandprolongedgrowthisimminentinmanyricheconomies.Ageingorevenshrinkingpopulationsmakesluggishgrowthmorelikely.Growthalsotendstobeweakintheaftermathoffinancialcrises.Inarecentbookonsovereigndebt,“ThisTimeisDifferent”,CarmenReinhartoftheUniversityofMarylandandKennethRogoffofHarvardconcludethat“theevidenceofferslittlesupportfortheviewthatcountriessimplygrowoutoftheirdebts.”CarmenReinhart和哈佛大学的KennethRogoff总结说“不能支家已经摆脱的观点”So,shortofdebtdefaultorimplicitdefaultviainflation,thatleavestwootherwaysofclosingthedeficit.Spendingmustbecutortaxpayersmustpaymore.Manypoliticalbattlesofthenextfewyearswillbefoughtonthesesimplelines,withtaxpayersononesideandthebeneficiariesofpublicspendingontheother.Oneimminentbattlewillbebetweentaxpayersandpublic-sectorworkers.Insomecountries,onepartycanbeseenasrepresentingtaxpayers(theConservativesinBritainandtheRepublicansinAmerica)andtheothertheworkers(LabourandtheDemocrats,respectively).么多缴税。接下来好几年将有许多围绕这些简单的主线展开，一方是 某党派可以被看做是的代表（英国的保守党和的另则是代表（相应的就是工党和党）Anotherofthesefightswillbebetweengenerations.InAmericathebiggestmedium-termbudgetbustersarepensionsandhealthcarefortheold.Abigdeficitmayeasetheeconomicpainintheshorttermbutriskssaddlingthenextgenerationwithagrowth-sapburdenofhighertaxesandinterestpayments.Thebattlesarealsointertwined:taxpayersfinancethepensionsofpublicemployeeswhichare,byandlarge,moregenerousandpredictablethanintheprivatesector.另一场将会发生在不同年代的人之间在中期预算最大的毒瘤是老年人的和 eofthesebattleswillvaryfromcountrytocountry.Bothsideshavepotentweapons.Manyofthebiggesttaxpayersarepoliticaldonorsandhaveaccesstopeopleinpower.Iftheyareignored,theymaypackupandmovetoamorefriendlyjurisdiction.InEuropeespecially,publicemployees,togetherwithrecipientsofpublicservices,probablyhavenumbersontheirside.Theyarecertainlybetterorganised,viatheirtradeunions,andtheyarepoliticaldonorstoo.AsFrenchworkershaveoftenshown,public-sectorunionscanintimidateernmentswithstrikesanddemonstrations.TheirGreekbrethrenhavebeentryingtoemulatethem.ThecaseforExperiencesuggeststhaternmentsshouldfocusonspendingcutsratherthantaxincreases.AnNBERstudyof1996concludedthat“fiscaladjustmentswhichrelyprimarilyonspendingcutsandtheernmentwagebillhaveabetterchanceofbeingsuccessfulandareexpansionary.Onthecontrary,fiscaladjustmentswhichrelyprimarilyontaxincreasesandcutsinpublicinvestmenttendnottolastandarecontractionary.”ApaperbyAntónioAfonsooftheEuropeanCentralBankandDavideFurcerioftheOECDfoundthatincreasesinernmentspendingasaproportionofGDPtendedtobecorrelatedwithslowereconomicgrowth.AndapaperpublishedbyExchange,aright-of-centreBritishthink-,concludedthatsuccessfuldebtconsolidationshadput80%oftheemphasisonspendingcuts(seetable).经验表明应当专注于削减支出而不是增税。NBER一项1996年的研究“主要依共投资的财政调整不大会持久还会导致经济紧缩”欧洲央行的AntónioAfonso和OECD的DavideFurceri 发现支出占GDP的比例在经济增长较缓慢时更易增长。Someofthemoresuccessfuldeficit-cuttingprogrammeswere paniedbyfallsininflationandinterestrates.Thesemadeiteasierforeconomiestoreboundandhelpedshoreupernments’electoralsupport.Buttodayinflationisalreadylow,asaremostcountries’bondyields.Socuttingspendingmaynotbringmuchrewardfromthemarketsintheshapeoflowerinterestrates.Yetthethoughtthatspendingmightnotbecutmaybringpunishmentintheformofhigherones.支出可能不会从已经处于低利率水准的市场获得很多回报但认为可以不必削减的想法Cuttingpublicspendingis,however,ahardslog.Spendingonwelfarerisesautomaticallyinarecession;pensionpaymentscontinuetogrowasthepopulationages.Westerncountriesusedtheendofthecoldwartoslashdefencebudgetsinthe1990s,butgiven militaryactioninAfghanistanandthethreatofterrorism,furtherbigreductionsarehardtoenvisage.Noraretheretheeasy,one-offgainstobemadethroughprivatisationofbigindustriespioneeredinBritaininthe1980sunderMargaretThatcher.。然而，削减公共支出是个相当的苦差事时会自动引起福利支出上涨；随着人口化支出会持续上涨。1990年代西方国家利用冷战结束之机大幅削减国防预算案，但考虑到持续的军事行动和主义的，今后大规模的军费削减不大可能。1980年代引领的大型工业那样简便的，一蹴而就的好事再也不可能了。。BarackObama’spromisetozediscretionaryspending(excludingdefenceandhomelandsecurity)saves$250billionovertenyears—notmuchwhenannualdeficitsare$1trillionormore.Soernmentwillhavetotacklemuchmorepoliticallysensitiveareas.ChangestoSocialSecurity(pensions),whicharenotpartofdiscretionaryspending,arelikelytoformpartofanyfiscalreforminAmerica.ShouldtheConservativeswintheBritishelection,theymaychangeeligibilityforwelfarepayments.承诺在未来10年要冻结自由支配支出（包括国防和安全费用）以节省2500亿美金—相对于每年10万亿的赤字而言杯水车薪因此不得不触及更敏感的政治区域。社会保障（），不属于自由支配范畴，也有可能成为财政的一部分。如Manyernmentshaveboxedthemselvesinbyrewardingtheirownsupporterswithjobsorsubsidies.InGreece,theright-wingNewDemocracypartycametopowerin2004pledgingaliberalisationoftheeconomy.Whenitleftofficein2009,ithadmorecivilservantsthanwhenitstarted.Such“ilism”tendstoleadtoaneverbiggerpresenceforthestateintheeconomy,withmoreandmorecitizensdependingontheernmentforemploymentand e.Thesepeoplethenvoteinfavourofthestatusquo.Itmaytakeacrisisto ernmentstoactinwaysthathurttheircoresupporters.许多因给予其支持者工作以及补贴而束缚了自己的手脚在希腊右翼的新党2004年因承诺经济自由化而。但2009年时，它留下比之初的公职人员。这种Whenacrisisdoesoccur,themarketstendtoinsistonpublic-expenditurecutsasakindoftestoftheernment’smachismo.InarecentpaperMsReinhartandMrRogoffsay:“Evencountriesthatarecommittedtofullyrepayingtheirdebtsaredtodramaticallytightenfiscalinordertoappearcredibletoinvestorsandtherebyreduceriskpremia.”如果真的发生，市场倾向于坚持缩减公共支出，把这作为对决心的一种检测。Reinhart和Rogoff在最近的中说“即便那些承诺会全额偿还的国家也不得不大幅ernmentsmaythusfindtheirpoliticaldecisionsdrivenbytheneedtokeepmarketsonside.ThatiswhythechoiceissostarkforthesouthernEuropeancountries,whicharetiedintothesingle-currencyzone.Nolongerdothesecountrieshavetheoptionofdevaluingtheircurrencies,whichtheyhaveresortedtomanytimesinthepast.Norcantheycombinetighterfiscalwithloosemonetary,becausetheydonotcontrolthelatter.因此发现他们的政策取决于保持市场正常运行的需求这就是为什么被进单一货币Ifthecutsdemandedareparticularlypainful,ernmentsmaysimplybeunwillingtobearthepoliticalcostofpushingthemthrough.Aclassicexampleoccurredin1931whenBritainwastryingtoremainonthegoldstandard.ThethenLabourernmentwastoldthatcutsinthebudgetdeficit,inparticularunemploymentbenefits,wererequiredtoappeasethemarkets;otherwisetheBankofEngland’sgoldreserveswouldrunoutintwoweeks.Thecabinetsplit.RamsayMacdonald,theprimeminister,tookchargeofa(largelyConservative)coalitionandhasbeenreviledinleft-wingcircleseversince.Andafterallthateffort,theausteritynfailedtodothetrick;Britainleftthegoldstandardwithinmonths.如果削减的代价特别痛苦可能不愿承担推动的政治成本一个经典的案例发生于 来安抚市场，否则英格兰银行的储备金将会在两周内耗尽。内阁起了争执。首相RamsayMacdonald组织了一个（主要是保守党），此后保守诟病。在类似尝试之后，The1931episodewasviewedinLabourPartyhistoryasa“bankers’ramp”inwhichfinancierstriedtobounceaernmentintohurtingthepoor.Modernernmentscanalsobetemptedtoblame“speculators”,acategorycoveringeveryonefrombankerstohedge-fundmanagers,fortheirownfailings.Theideathatcreditorsmightbeconcernedabouttheernments’abilitytopaytheirdebts—andthusinsistonahigherinterestrate—seemstobehardforpoliticianstoaccept.AttheDavoseconomicforuminJanuaryGeorgePapandreou,Greece’sprimeminister,said:“Thisisanattackontheeurozonebycertainotherinterests,politicalorfinancial,andoftencountriesarebeingusedastheweaklink,ifyoulike,oftheeurozone.”1931件在工上被“行家的道金融图迫使损害人利益。现代的也试图归咎“投机者包括银行和经，以掩盖己的失职。认为债权人可能关注偿债能力——因此坚持较高利率的想法—似乎难以被们所接受。一份达沃上希腊相eoeapadreu说这是对元区的次，Evenso,theGreekernmenthasacceptedthatitsdeficitneedstobetrimmed.InthepoliticsofdeficitreductionMrPapandreouhassomecrucialadvantages:opinionpollssuggestthatGreeksaccepttheneedforausterity;hewonasubstantialelectionvictorylastyear;theoppositionisbeingsupportive;andhisPasokpartyhasstronglinkswiththetradeunions.Itmaybeeasierforaleft-wingpartytopushthroughbudgetcuts.尽管如此，希腊同意其赤字需要被削减。在削减赤字的政策上，Papandreou有些关键的优势：观念显示希腊人认同节俭的必要性；他去年大选获胜优势明显；很配合；其Pasok党与贸易关系密切。这也许会让该政党推行预算削减时要容易些。SupportivesocialcohesionmayexinSweden’ssuccessfulfiscaltighteningafterthebankingcrisisoftheearly1990s.TheSocialDemocraticernmentturnedabudgetdeficitof9.3%ofGDPin1994intoasurplusof1.2%by1998.SpendingfellbymorethanfivepercentagepointsasaproportionofGDPandtaxrevenuesrosebyalmostasmuch.Growthaveraged3.2%in1994-98andunemploymentwaslowerattheendthanatthestart—surelyapoliticalaswellasaneconomic起支持作用的社会凝聚力也以解释瑞典在1990年代初银行后紧缩财政取得成功的原因。社民府1994年预算赤字占GDP9.3%，到了1998年反而盈余1.2%。支出占GDP的比例下降了5个点而收入上升的比率几乎与之相当94到98年均增长率3.2%，Politicswithintheernmentcanhelporhinderdeficitreduction.CanadahadthreefailedattemptsatfiscalreformbeforeasuccessfulausterityprogrammewasunveiledintheLiberalParty’sbudgetin1995.Earliereffortshadbeenblockedbyernmentdepartments.Onthedepartmentswereencouragedtosuggestsacrifices—andtoldthatbudgetswouldbecutby10%acrosstheboardiftheyfailedtoagree.Cutsweremadeinseveralareas,includingdefence,farmsubsidiesandunemploymentbenefits.Thebudgetwentfromadeficitof6.7%ofGDPin1994toasmallsurplusin1997.的内部政治可以促进也可以妨碍赤字的减少。在1955年工党一项苛刻的预算案成功实施之前三次财政的企图都以失败告终早先的尝试都遭到的阻力第四次尝试中被鼓励要有牺牲精神——并知如果他们不同意的话预算将在范围内10%。缩减预算体现在几个领域：国防、农业补贴和失业福利。1994年时预算赤字占GDP6.7%1997年则有小幅盈余。Itmaybethattaxhikes,particularlyforthebetteroff,arepoliticallynecessarytoensurepopularacceptancethatpainisbeingshared.Butbigtaxincreasescandoeconomicdamage.Inthe1990ssomeofthemoreremarkablesuccessstorieswereassociatedwithcountriesthatreducedtaxesinordertoattractbusinessandcapital.Ireland,whichbecameknownastheCeltictigerbecauseofitsgrowthrate,hasacorporate-taxrateofjust12.5%andchosenottoraiseitwhenittighteneditsbeltlastyear.难。但大幅的增税会对经济造成。1990年代一些非凡的成功故事都与施行减税措施以12.5%，即使去年不得不勒紧裤腰带也不选择提高税率。Thecorporate-taxtrendoverthelast30yearshasbeenremorselesslydownward.AsurveybyRobertCarrollofAmericanUniversityinWashington,DC,foundthatthetoprateinOECDcountries(excludingAmerica)hadfallenfrom51%intheearly1980sto32%by2009(seechart).Ifbusinessesareattractedbylowtaxes,theymayleaveifratesrise.过去30企业税率义无反顾地一路下行。 大学AmericanUniversityinWashington的RobertCarroll的一项发现经合组织国家最高的税率从1980年代初到2009年已经下降了51%（见上表）如果经济被低税率所吸引，那么税率增高时他们就会离场。High-taxEuropeanernmentshavecominedinthepastaboutcompetitionfromcountrieslikeIreland;thecurrentcrisismayleadtomorecallsforco-ordinationoftaxpolicies.Indeed,manycountrieswillberaisingtaxessimultaneously,whichmayreducethetemptationforbusinessestoshift.Muchdependsonwherecountriesstart;itshouldbeeasierforthosewithlowertaxburdenstoincreasetheirtake.高税负的欧洲在过去一直抱怨来自爱尔兰这样的国家的竞争当前的也许会导致更多要求合作的呼声事实上许多国家会同时提高这样就会降低商业转场的。Highearnerscanalsobe .SomanyFrenchprofessionalsmovedtoLondoninthepastdecadethatNicolasSarkozy,France’s,pleadedwiththem(andofferedtaxdeals)tocomeback.Britainisgraduallylosingitsappealtohigh-earningforeigners.CalculationsbyPricewaterhouseCoopers,anaccountingfirm,showthatBritish willtakeabiggertaxbiteoutofthepaypacketofamarriedexecutiveearning£250,000($373,000)thananyotherG20nationexceptItaly.求他们回（提供英国正逐渐失去对高薪外国人的根据普华永道PWC，一家审计公司的统计，英国将要从收入达到25万英镑的已婚那里征收相当大一部分，高于除意大利以外的其他G20国家。Theneedforcountriesto isetheirtakefromtheircitizenshascausedarenewedinterestinpreventingtaxevasion.CountriesintheG20havebeenpushinghardforlow-taxcountriessuchasSwitzerlandtoprovideinformationonforeigndepositors.Nevertheless,thereareplentyoflegitimatewaysforbusinessesandindividualstomovetocountrieswithmorefavourabletax收更有的地区。Sothetemptationwillbetoimposetaxesthatwillbedifficulttoescape,inparticularsalesorvalue-addedtaxes.Thepoliticaldrawbackofsuchleviesisthattheyfallmoreheavilyonthepoorthantherich.Thiswillbeunpopular,especiallybecausemanypeopleregardthiscrisisasthefaultofhigh-earningbankers.Furthermore,ifhighertaxeseatintodemand,economiesmayslipbackintorecession.AJapaneseconsumption-taxincreasein1997isstillblamedforderailingitsrecovery.者是高收入的银行家。此外，如果高税负侵蚀了需求，经济将会退回。1997年提Europeanernmentshaveaccordinglyproducedamixofmeasuresintheirausteritypackages.Greece,Ireland,PortugalandSpainhaveallpromisedtoattackthepublic-sectorwagebillbycuttingorzingwagesorbyreducingthenumberofstaff.GreeceannouncedanewroundofcutsonMarch3rd.Butthepackageshavealsocontainedtaxrises(motorwaytollsinPortugal,fueltaxesinGreece)andassaultsontaxevasion.InGreece,taxevasionseemstoberifeamongtheprofessionalclasses,withveryfewcitizensdeclaringhigh es;oneresponsefromtheernmenthasbeentotrytoencouragetheuseofreceipts.Highearnersclaimingthe altaxallowanceofEuro12,000($16,270)willneedtoprovidereceiptsofatleastthatvalue.，。在希腊，由于鲜有公民申报高收入似乎在专业阶层较为普遍的一个反应就是试图鼓励使用。高收入者声称12000欧元的个税起征线需要提供至少与之等值的。，。Despitethisattempttospreadthepain,theGreekernmenthasbeenconfrontedwithawaveofstrikesbypublic-sectorworkers.ernmentscanuseoutsidefinancialpressureasanexcusetopushthroughreformsthatmightotherwisebepoliticallyunacceptable.Butitisafinebalance.Votersmaybemoreresistantifharshmeasuresareseenasbeingdictatedbyforeigners,whetherfromtheEUortheIMF.。尽管努力分摊负担，希腊仍然公共部门员工的浪潮可以以外部压力为借被看作是外国人强加的——无论是欧盟还是国际金组织——选民们或许会产生更强。Thepeoplearen’tLordSalisbury,aBritishprimeminister,andother19th-centuryconservativesfearedthatdemocracywouldleadtotheoverthrowofprivatepropertyrights.Debtorstendtooutnumbercreditors,andthuscanoutvotethem.英国前首相勋爵和其他19世纪的保守党担心将会导致私利的泛滥。债Suchpessimismhasyettobeprovedright.Sometimes,irresistiblemeetsimmovableobject.InCalifornia,forinstance,votershavetherighttovoteonspecificfiscalpoliciesinreferendums.Theresulthasbeenacapontaxeswithnoapparentlimitonspending.Icelandisabouttoprovideaspecifictestofthistheoryinareferendum,inwhichvotersarebeingaskedtoacceptorrejectthetermsforcompensatingforeigndepositorsinfailedIcelandicbanks.出表决，选择接受还是赔偿外国储蓄者在冰岛银行里损失的方案。However,theeffortsofCanadaandSwedensuggestprogresscanbemade,ifthecrisisisacuteenough.Anddictatorshipsareunlikelytobebetterthandemocracies.MilitaryregimesinLatinAmerica(exceptChile)hadpooreconomicrecords;theysawthestateasasourceofcushyjobsforofficersandsubsidiesforarmsfactorie