碳发展政策和《京都议定书》英文四

CaseStudy1:ModellingOntario’sForestCarbonBudget

KyotoProtocol(1997)Objectives:estimatetheCinlivingbiomass,forestfloor,andsoilforthebaseyear1990;estimateCchangesinthesepoolsbetween1991and2000,andtheeffectsofclimatechangeandforestecosystemdisturbances;developamodel(CBM-TRIPLEX)thatwillpredictfutureOntario’sforestcarbonbudgettotheyear2010.

SpatialunitlevelAgeclasslevelForesttypelevelSABOCTMTSpatialScalesBO:Boreal;CT:CoolTemperate;Mt:Moderatetemperate;SA:SubarticApproach:

CBM-CFS2:CarbonBudgetModelofCanadianForestSectorCBM-CFSFirstnationalscaleforestanalysisDataDriven:ForestInventory(NFBIandCanFI)SoilDataDisturbancesFireInsectsHarvests(Kurz,Apps,Webb,McNamee;1992,KurzandApps,1999)ForestCarbonBudgets

Inputs-Outputs=

ChangesinPools

Fluxes StocksForest

EcosystemForest

EconomicSystemlandfillsbiomasssoil&

peatAtmospherefuels,cementproductsdetritusFocusonChangesinStocksorFluxes?

Withfullsystemanalysis,changesinstocksareequivalenttonetfluxto/fromatmosphereLikeabankaccount:ForestCarbon:SystemDiagramTworeleasepathways:DisturbanceandDecompositionOneuptakepathway:PhotosynthesisHowDoesCBM-CFS2workforOntario?ForestStateatTimet

CarbonstocksForestStateatTimet+1

CarbonstocksRulesofchangeChangesinstocksResult:

Cstocks,fluxforyearBiomassgrowthDisturbanceSoildecompositionHistoricCarbonBudgetsofOntario’sForests(Pengetal.2000;Liuetal.2002)Ontario’sForestAge-classStructure(1990)SABOCTMTOntario'sForestAge(1920-1990)

TrendofCSequestrationinOntario'sForests

PotentialCsequestrationcapability:Increaseof1.1Pg(1,100MtC)byincreasinganaveragedageof10yearsinabout20yearsSolutionsCriteria:

harvestedarea<0.8%,fire&insectdisturbedarea<1%(1PgC=1,000MtC=1015gC)Lecture10-11CarbonPolicyDevelopmentandKyotoProtocolI.TheClimateChangeConventionII.TheKyotoProtocolIII.CarbonTradingandMarketGenevaDeclarationBindingTargetswithMaximumFlexibilityKyotoProtocol

DifferentiatedTargets,Trading&CDMBuenosAiresPlan

ScheduleforGuidelinesTheHague&BonnPoliticalAgreementRioTreaty1990by2000BerlinMandateInadequateCommitmentsStrongerScientificEvidence,IncreasesInPublicConcern

MarrakechAccords

TradingRules,CDMBoard,RulesforSinks&Compliance

COP11inMontreal:

1992

1995

1996

1997

1998

2000-1

2001

2005InternationalClimateProcessCOP1COP2COP3COP4COP6COP7COP11UNFCCCCOP:ConferenceofthePartiesBeyondKyoto

1.WhatistheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)?

Signedin1992atthe“EarthSummer”inRiodeJaneiro(Brazil),theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCCortheConvention)wasthefirstmajorinitiativeforinternationalcooperationintheareaofgreenhousegasmitigationandmanagement..TheUNFCCCenteredintoforcedinMarch1995.Todate,186countrieshaveratifiedtheconvention.I.TheClimateChangeConvention(2005,Montreal)

TheultimateobjectiveoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)(inArticle2UnitedNations,1992)is

“toachievestabilisationofgreenhousegasconcentrationsintheatmosphereatalevelthatwouldpreventdangerousanthropogenicinterferencewiththeclimatesystem.Suchalevelshouldbeachievedwithinatime-framesufficienttoallowecosystemstoadaptnaturallytoclimatechange,toensurethatfoodproductionisnotthreatenedandtoenableeconomicdevelopmenttoproceedinasustainablemanner”2.Objective

3.Principles“equity”and“commonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities”Theindustrializedcountrieshavehistoricallycontributedthemosttotheproblemandhavemoreresourcestoaddressit.“Precautionaryprinciple”Althoughmanyuncertaintiesstillsurroundclimatechange,waitingforfullscientificcertaintybeforetakingactionwillalmostcertainlytobetoolatetoavertitsworstimpacts.

4.GroupofcountriesTheconventiondividescountriesintotwomaingroup:AnnexI:atotalof41industrializedcountries,includingtherelativelywealthyindustrializedcountriesthatweremembersofOECD(OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)in1992,pluscountrieswitheconomicsintransitions(theEITs),includingtheRussianFederation,theBalticStates,andseveralCentralandEasternEuropeanStatesTheOEDCmembersofAnnexI–nottheEITs–arealsolistedintheconvention’sannexII.Therearecurrently24suchAnnexIIpartiesNon-AnnexICountries(145):

AllotherscountriesnotlistedintheConvention’sAnnexes–mostlythedevelopingcountries–areknownasnon-AnnexIcountries.5.Commitments•AllPartiesmustprepareandregularlyupdatenationalclimatechangemitigationandadaptationprogrammes,includingmeasurestoaddresssourcesofgreenhousegasemissionsandtoprotectandenhancecarbon“sinks”and“reservoirs”•Theymustalsotakeclimatechangeconsiderationsintoaccountintheirotherrelevantsocial,economic,andenvironmentalpolicies,andusesuchmethodsasimpactsassessmentstominimizeanyadverseeconomics,healthorenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatechangemeasures.•AllPartiesmustalsopromotethedevelopment,applicationandtransferofclimate-friendlytechnologiesandpractices,aswellasthesustainablemanagementofcarbonsinks(1)GeneralCommitments:

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