烟草行业的外在分析

TheExternalEnvironment:Opportunities,Threats,andIndustryCompetition,andCompetitorAnalysisMichaelA.HittR.DuaneIrelandRobertE.HoskissonChapter21©2003SouthwesternPublishingCompany第一页，共四十六页。StrategyImplementationChapter13StrategicEntrepreneurshipChapter11OrganizationalStructureandControlsChapter10CorporateGovernanceChapter12StrategicLeadershipStrategyFormulationChapter6Corporate-LevelStrategyChapter9CooperativeStrategyChapter5CompetitiveRivalryandCompetitiveDynamicsChapter8InternationalStrategyChapter4Business-LevelStrategyChapter7AcquisitionandRestructuringStrategiesStrategicCompetitivenessAbove-AverageReturnsStrategicIntentStrategicMissionChapter2TheExternalEnvironmentChapter3TheInternalEnvironmentTheStrategicManagementProcessFeedbackStrategicInputsStrategicActionsStrategicOutcomes2第二页，共四十六页。GeneralEnvironmentGeneralEnvironmentGeneralEnvironmentSocioculturalGlobalTechnologicalPolitical/LegalDemographicEconomicTheExternalEnvironmentIndustryEnvironmentThreatofnewentrantsPowerofsuppliersPowerofbuyersProductsubstitutesIntensityofrivalryCompetitorEnvironment總體環境產業環境競爭者環境3第三页，共四十六页。ExternalEnvironmentalAnalysisAcontinuousprocesswhichincludesScanning掃瞄:IdentifyingearlysignalsofenvironmentalchangesandtrendsMonitoring監測:DetectingmeaningthroughongoingobservationsofenvironmentalchangesandtrendsForecasting預測:DevelopingprojectionsofanticipatedoutcomesbasedonmonitoredchangesandtrendsAssessing評價:Determiningthetimingandimportanceofenvironmentalchangesandtrendsforfirms’strategiesandtheirmanagement4第四页，共四十六页。ExternalEnvironmentalAnalysisStrategicIntentStrategicMissionTheExternalEnvironmentAnalysisofgeneralenvironmentAnalysisofindustryenvironmentAnalysisofcompetitorenvironmentTheExternalEnvironment5第五页，共四十六页。GeneralEnvironmentSocioculturalsegment社會文化面WomenintheworkplaceWorkforcediversity勞動力多元化Attitudesaboutqualityofworklife工作生活素質ConcernsaboutenvironmentShiftsinworkandcareerpreferencesShiftsinproductandservicepreferences6第六页，共四十六页。Economicsegment經濟面GeneralEnvironmentInflationratesInterestratesTradedeficitsorsurplusesBudgetdeficitsorsurplusesPersonalsavingsrateBusinesssavingsratesGrossdomesticproduct7第七页，共四十六页。GeneralEnvironmentPolitical/LegalSegment政治/法律面Antitrustlaws(公平交易法)TaxationlawsDeregulationphilosophies管制解除(鬆綁)理念LabortraininglawsEducationalphilosophiesandpolicies8第八页，共四十六页。GeneralEnvironmentTechnologicalSegment科技面ProductinnovationsApplicationsofknowledgeFocusofprivateandgovernment-supportedR&DexpendituresNewcommunicationtechnologies9第九页，共四十六页。GeneralEnvironmentGlobalSegment全球面ImportantpoliticaleventsCriticalglobalmarketsNewlyindustrializecountriesDifferentculturalandinstitutionalattributes10第十页，共四十六页。GeneralEnvironmentDemographicSegment人口統計面PopulationsizeAgestructureGeographicdistributionEthnicmixIncomedistribution11第十一页，共四十六页。IndustryEnvironmentAsetoffactorsthatdirectlyinfluencesacompanyanditscompetitiveactionsandresponses.Interactionamongthesefactorsdetermineanindustry’sprofitpotential.ThreatofnewentrantsPowerofsuppliersPowerofbuyersProductsubstitutesIntensityofrivalry12第十二页，共四十六页。FiveForcesModelofCompetitionIdentifycurrentandpotentialcompetitorsanddeterminewhichfirmsservethem.Conductcompetitiveanalysis.Recognizethatsuppliersandbuyerscanbecomecompetitors.Recognizethatproducersofpotentialsubstitutesmaybecomecompetitors.13第十三页，共四十六页。ThreatofNewEntrantsBargainingPowerofSuppliersBargainingPowerofBuyersThreatofSubstituteProductsRivalryAmongCompetingFirmsFiveForcesModelofCompetitionFiveForcesofCompetition14第十四页，共四十六页。ThreatofNewEntrantsBarrierstoentryEconomiesofscaleProductdifferentiationCapitalrequirementsSwitchingcosts轉換成本AccesstodistributionchannelsCostdisadvantagesindependentofscale無關規模之成本優勢GovernmentpolicyExpectedretaliation預期的報復行動15第十五页，共四十六页。產業生命週期與進入障礙進入障礙萌芽期成長期成長消退期成熟期衰退期科技高至中中至低低低低規模經濟低低至中中至高中至高中至高品牌忠誠低低至中中至高中至高中至高產業生命週期進入障礙來源需求高度成長需求成長緩慢與停滯需求衰退16第十六页，共四十六页。BargainingPowerofSuppliersAsuppliergroupispowerfulwhen:itisdominatedbyafewlargecompaniessatisfactorysubstituteproductsarenotavailabletoindustryfirmsindustryfirmsarenotasignificantcustomerforthesuppliergroupsuppliers’goodsarecriticaltobuyers’marketplacesuccesseffectivenessofsuppliers’productshascreatedhighswitchingcostssuppliersareacrediblethreattointegrateforwardintothebuyers’industry向前(向下)整合17第十七页，共四十六页。BargainingPowerofBuyersBuyers(customers)arepowerfulwhen:theypurchasealargeportionofanindustry’stotaloutputthesalesoftheproductbeingpurchasedaccountforasignificantportionoftheseller’sannualrevenuestheycouldeasilyswitchtoanotherproducttheindustry’sproductsareundifferentiatedorstandardized,andbuyersposeacrediblethreatiftheyweretointegratebackwardintotheseller’sindustry向後(向上)整合18第十八页，共四十六页。ThreatofSubstituteProductsProductsubstitutesarestrongthreatwhen:customersfacefewswitchingcostssubstituteproduct’spriceislower(廠商的財力)substituteproduct’squalityandperformancecapabilitiesareequaltoorgreaterthanthoseofthecompetingproduct19第十九页，共四十六页。IntensityofRivalryIntensityofrivalryisstrongerwhencompetitors:arenumerousorequallybalancedexperienceslowindustrygrowth(產業生命週期)havehighfixedcostsorhighstoragecostslackdifferentiationorlowswitchingcostsexperiencehighstrategicstakes策略利害關係havehighexitbarriers20第二十页，共四十六页。產業結構連續帶分散型產業中企業家數眾多並無相對較大且足以主導市場的企業進入障礙低產品不易差異化價格戰容易形成產業繁榮與衰退時期不斷更替結合型企業家數甚少(寡占)或只有一家(獨占)每一家企業都有主宰市場的力量企業間高度相互依存常出現價格領導行為進行非價格戰爭謹慎採取價格戰企業家數眾多只有一家企業21第二十一页，共四十六页。同業競爭程度越大—平均獲利越低廠商間的合作可以使大家獲得超額利潤合作關係的破壞--個別企業在產業合作下有暗中定價的機會市場的廠商家數越少,勾結(合作)可能性越高集中度(concentrationratio)—產業內廠商的數目與相對權力CR4—產業中最大四家廠商銷售額或僱用員工人數佔全部產業的比率競爭廠商規模愈平均,敵對關係愈激烈(但是競爭行動與反應越謹慎)如果市場上三家廠商的市場站業率分別為0.5,0.25,0.25規模分配指數為10000x(0.5x0.5+0.25x0.25+0.25x0.25)=3750指數愈大廠商間愈能合作22第二十二页，共四十六页。同業競爭程度越大—平均獲利越低廠商的同質性--在其他條件不變下,廠商同質性愈高愈能合作資產特定性(專屬性)愈高時增加退出市場的障礙,使產業敵對狀態升高23第二十三页，共四十六页。現有敵對狀態與產業生命週期演化競爭態勢萌芽期成長期成長消退期成熟期衰退期價格競爭低低高低至高高品牌忠誠低低中至高高高整體低低高中至高高產業生命週期競爭焦點24第二十四页，共四十六页。HighExitBarriersCommonexitbarriersinclude:specializedassets(assetswithvalueslinkedtoaparticularbusinessorlocation)fixedcostsofexitsuchaslaboragreementsstrategicinterrelationships(relationshipsofmutualdependencebetweenonebusinessandotherpartsofacompany’soperation,suchassharedfacilitiesandaccesstofinancialmarkets)emotionalbarriers(careerconcerns,loyaltytoemployees,etc.)governmentandsocialrestrictions25第二十五页，共四十六页。進入障礙與退出障礙對企業獲利的影響高而具風險

的獲利退出障礙高低高低低而穩定

的獲利高而穩定

的獲利低而具風險

的獲利進入障礙26第二十六页，共四十六页。需求狀況與退出障礙對企業獲利的影響出現價格領導有機會提高價格與擴大市場需求狀況低高需求成長需求降低產能過剩高度價格戰的威脅產能過剩價格戰中度威脅出現價格領導擴大市場規模退出障礙27第二十七页，共四十六页。StrategicGroups策略性群組Strategicgroup:agroupoffirmsinanindustryfollowingthesameorsimilarstrategyalongthesamestrategicdimensions.Thestrategyfollowedbyastrategicgroupdiffersfromstrategiesbeingimplementedbyothercompaniesintheindustry.28第二十八页，共四十六页。策略性群體分析產業中最主要的競爭對象—擁有相同資產且採取向同策略的廠商群組產業中何時會出現策略性群體?不同群組具有不同的競爭態勢同一群組內者為直接競爭者移動障礙分析進入障礙退出障礙高品質低品質低價位高價位退出障礙進入障礙29第二十九页，共四十六页。組織間策略差異的肇因產業萌芽初期,環境充滿不確定性消費者不知自己的需求與偏好廠商根據自己對未來趨勢的判斷,嘗試各種不同的生產模式組織間逐漸出現策略的差異性認為顧客需求多樣化者—積極開發多元化產品強調規模經濟者,集中大量生產一種產品企業在產業形成初期的投資,成為後期選擇策略的資產產業景況惡化會加大企業間的策略差異30第三十页，共四十六页。CompetitorEnvironmentCompetitorintelligence

istheethicalgatheringofneededinformationanddataaboutcompetitors’objectives,strategies,assumptions,andcapabilitieswhatdrivesthecompetitorasshownbyitsfutureobjectiveswhatthecompetitorisdoingandcandoasrevealedbyitscurrentstrategyWhatthecompetitorbelievesaboutitselfandtheindustry,asshownbyitsassumptionsWhatthethecompetitormaybeabletodo,asshownbyitscapabilities31第三十一页，共四十六页。CompetitorAnalysisFutureObjectives:FutureobjectivesHowdoourgoalscomparewithourcompetitors’goals?Wherewilltheemphasisbeplacedinthefuture?Whatistheattitudetowardrisk?32第三十二页，共四十六页。CompetitorAnalysisCurrentstrategyCurrentStrategy:FutureobjectivesHowarewecurrentlycompeting?Doesthisstrategysupportchangesinthecompetitivestructure?33第三十三页，共四十六页。CompetitorAnalysisAssumptionsCurrentstrategyFutureobjectivesAssumptions:Doweassumethefuturewillbevolatile?Areweoperatingunderastatusquo?Whatassumptionsdoourcompetitorsholdabouttheindustryandthemselves?34第三十四页，共四十六页。CompetitorAnalysisCapabilitiesAssumptionsCurrentstrategyFutureobjectivesCapabilities:Whatareourstrengthsandweaknesses?Howdoweratecomparedtoourcompetitors?35第三十五页，共四十六页。CompetitorAnalysisCapabilitiesAssumptionsCurrentstrategyFutureobjectivesResponseResponse:Whatwillourcompetitorsdointhefuture?Wheredoweholdanadvantageoverourcompetitors?Howwillthischangeourrelationshipwithourcompetitors?36第三十六页，共四十六页。有關競爭者的問題顧客競爭者的顧客在何處?誰是競爭者主要顧客?行銷採用何種定價/產品或行銷策略?配銷如何配銷產品?銷售銷售人力的規模有多大?銷售條件與狀況為何?廣告在何處廣告?廣告支出水準?財務獲利狀況?固定成本有多高?37第三十七页，共四十六页。有關競爭者的問題生產與作業生產規模/地點與產能?產品生產效率水準?組織組織結構型態?管理分權/集權程度?由誰制定重大決策?研究與發展擁有哪些專利與商標?正著手開發哪些新產品?研發預算支出水準?策略性計畫短/長期計畫?將專注於核心事業或有計畫擴充其他市場?是否企圖收購其他事業?38第三十八页，共四十六页。有關競爭者的問題主要競爭者的優勢?主要競爭者的劣勢?主要競爭者的目標與策略?主要競爭者對當前總體與產業環境因素最可能如何回應?我們的策略對主要競爭者的傷害程度?相對於主要競爭者,我們的產品與服務如何定位?新企業進入與離開產業的難易程度?在產業中造成彼此目前競爭地位的關鍵性因素為何?主要競爭者近來銷售地位與獲利水準的變化與原因?39第三十九页，共四十六页。外部因素評估矩陣Externalfactorevaluationmatrix,EFE步驟1:列出外部稽核所確認的主要因素10-20個,先列機會後列威脅步驟2:為每個因素分派權數權數代表因素對成功的重要程度,通常機會的權數高於威脅,最高1.0表示非常重要,最低0.0表示非常不重要步驟3:評定企業回應每個因素的能力分數最高4表示回應能力強,最低表示回應能力弱評分對象是企業與企業策略的有效性40第四十页，共四十六页。外部因素評估矩陣步驟4計算加權分數權數X評分步驟5加總每個因素的加權分數最高為4,表示企業對外部的機會與威脅回應能力強,最低為1表示企業回應能力差,中數為2.541第四十一页，共四十六页。外部因素評估矩陣範例--無煙煙草製造公司

機會

權重

評分

加權分數全球市場尚未打開

0.15

1

0.15因公開禁煙而增加的需求

0.05

3

0.15龐大網路廣告的增加

0.05

1

0.05prinkerton在折扣香煙市場的領先

0.15

4

0.60更多禁煙的壓力

0.10

3

0.30

威脅

權重評分加權分數反對香煙產業的法令規定

0.10

2

0.20生產上限

0.05

3

0.15無煙香煙市場集中於美國西南

0.05

2

0.10來自FDA的不良曝光

0.10

2

0.20Clinton政府的管制增加

0.20

1

0.20總和1.00