国际能源署-基于排放强度的氢定义（英）

Towardshydrogen

definitionsbased

ontheiremissions

intensity

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TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensityAbstract

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Abstract

TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensityisanewreportbytheInternationalEnergyAgency,designedtoinformpolicymakers,hydrogenproducers,investorsandtheresearchcommunityinadvanceoftheG7Climate,EnergyandEnvironmentalMinisterialmeetinginApril2023.ThereportbuildsontheanalysisfromtheIEA’sNetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySectorandcontinuestheseriesofreportsthattheIEAhaspreparedfortheG7onthesectoraldetailsoftheroadmap,includingtheAchievingNetZeroElectricitySectorsinG7Members,AchievingNetZeroHeavyIndustrySectorsinG7MembersandEmissionsMeasurementandDataCollectionforaNetZeroSteelIndustryreports.

Thisreportassessesthegreenhousegasemissionsintensityofthedifferenthydrogenproductionroutesandreviewswaystousetheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductioninthedevelopmentofregulationandcertificationschemes.Aninternationallyagreedemissionsaccountingframeworkisawaytomoveawayfromtheuseofterminologiesbasedoncoloursorothertermsthathaveprovedimpracticalforthecontractsthatunderpininvestment.Theadoptionofsuchaframeworkcanbringmuch-neededtransparency,aswellasfacilitatinginteroperabilityandlimitingmarketfragmentation,thusbecomingausefulenablerofinvestmentsforthedevelopmentofinternationalhydrogensupplychains.

TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensityAcknowledgements

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Acknowledgements

TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensitywaspreparedbytheEnergyTechnologyPolicy(ETP)DivisionoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO)oftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).TheprojectwasdesignedanddirectedbyTimurGül,HeadoftheEnergyTechnologyPolicyDivision.UweRemme,HeadoftheHydrogenandAlternativeFuelsUnit,andJoseMiguelBermudezMenendezco-ordinatedtheanalysisandproductionofthereport.

TheprincipalIEAauthorsandcontributorswereSimonBennett,StavroulaEvangelopoulou,MathildeFajardy,CarlGreenfield,FrancescoPavanandAmaliaPizarroAlonso.Severalcolleaguesacrosstheagencycontributedanalyticalinput,includingTomásdeOliveiraBredariolandJérômeHilaire.LaurentAntoni,fromtheInternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomy(IPHE)wasalsoacontributorandauthorofthereport.

ThefollowingIEAcolleaguescontributedwithvaluablecomments:KeisukeSadamori,LauraCozzi,DanDonner,PaoloFrankl,TimGould,IlkkaHannula,ChristopheMcGlade,PeterLeviandTiffanyVass.

LizzieSayereditedthemanuscript.EssentialsupportthroughouttheprocesswasprovidedbyCarolineAbettan,RekaKoczkaandPer-AndersWidell.ThanksalsotoPoeliBojorquez,CurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,IsabelleNonain-SemelinoftheCommunicationsandDigitalOffice.

TheworkcouldnothavebeenachievedwithoutthefinancialsupportprovidedbytheMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,Japan.

Thereportbenefitedfromtheinsightsgatheredduringahigh-levelexpertworkshopon“Achievingscale-upoflow-emissionhydrogenandammoniafornetzeroinG7countries”(heldon21February2023)andaseriesofconsultationswithJochenBardandDayanaGranfordRuiz(Fraunhofer-InstitutfürEnergiewirtschaftundEnergiesystemtechnik,Germany);HeribBlanco;TimoBollerheyandMartinErdmann(Hintco);MatthiasDeutschandMauricioBelaunde(AgoraEnergiewende);JohannaFriese(GesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit,Germany);CélineLeGoazigo(WorldBusinessCouncilForSustainableDevelopment);NoévanHulstandTimKarlsson(IPHE);HeinovonMeyer(InternationalPtXHub);DariaNochevnik(HydrogenCouncil);AndreiV.Tchouvelev(HydrogenCouncil,InternationalOrganizationforStandardization);andKirstenWestphal(GermanAssociationofEnergyandWaterIndustries).

TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensityAcknowledgements

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Peerreviewersprovidedessentialfeedbacktoimprovethequalityofthereport.Theyinclude:OlumoyeAjaoandCurtisJenken(NationalResourcesCanada);SaoodMohamedAlnoori(OfficeoftheSpecialEnvoyforClimateChange,UnitedArabEmirates);ChelseaBaldino(InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation);RutaBaltause(DirectorateGeneralforEnergy,EuropeanCommission);JochenBard(Fraunhofer-InstitutfürEnergiewirtschaftundEnergiesystemtechnik,Germany);HeribBlanco;TrevorBrown(AmmoniaEnergyAssociation);Anne-SophieCorbeau(CenteronGlobalEnergyPolicy,ColumbiaUniversity,UnitedStates);HarrietCulver,KatherineDavisandLizWharmby(DepartmentforEnergySecurityandNetZero,UnitedKingdom);MatthiasDeutsch,ZaffarHussainandLeandroJanke(AgoraEnergiewende);TudorFlorea(MinistryofEnergyTransition,France);JohannaFriese(GesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeit,Germany);CélineLeGoazigo(WorldBusinessCouncilforSustainableDevelopment);YukariHinoandMasashiWatanabe(MinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,Japan);YoshikazuKobayashi(TheInstituteofEnergyEconomics,Japan);MartinLambert(OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies,UnitedKingdom);RebeccaMaserumuleandNoévanHulst(IPHE);JonasMoberg(GreenHydrogenOrganisation);PietroMoretto(JointReserachCentre,EuropeanCommission);JaneNakano(CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,UnitedStates);AlejandroNuñez(ETHZürich,Switzerland);AlloysiusJokoPurwanto(EconomicResearchInstituteforASEANandEastAsia,Indonesia);StefanoRaimondi,MarcelloCapraandRobertoCianella(MinistryofEnvironmentandEnergySecurity,Italy);SunitaSatyapal,MarcMelainaandNehaRustagi(DepartmentofEnergy,UnitedStates);PetraSchwagerandJuanPabloDavila(UnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization);MatthijsSoede(DirectorateGeneralforResearchandInnovation,EuropeanCommission);JanStelter(NOWGmbH);KoichiUchida(StateDepartment,UnitedStates);KirstenWestphal(GermanAssociationofEnergyandWaterIndustries);andXeniaZwanziger(FederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction,Germany).

Theindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisstudyarenotresponsibleforanyopinionsorjudgementsitcontains.TheviewsexpressedinthestudyarenotnecessarilyviewsoftheIEA’smembercountriesorofanyparticularfunderorcollaborator.AllerrorsandomissionsaresolelytheresponsibilityoftheIEA.

TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensityTableofcontents

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 7

Introduction 11

Hydrogenanditsderivativesinanetzeroenergysystem 13

Hydrogentoday 14

Theroleofhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelsinthetransitiontonetzero 15

Tradeofhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuels 20

Thecostofhydrogensupply 22

Acceleratingdeploymenttomeetambitions 28

Clearhydrogendefinitionstoaddressdeploymentbarriers 30

Internationalco-operationtofacilitatedeployment 31

Defininghydrogenaccordingtoitsemissionsintensity 33

Introduction 34

Elementsofregulationsandcertificationsystemsforhydrogen 36

Theemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductionroutes 38

EmissionsintensityandcostsofhydrogenproductioninIEAscenarios 52

Towardsaninternationalemissionsaccountingframeworktodefinehydrogen 59

Considerationsforaninternationalaccountingframework 60

Avenuesforimplementation 70

Practicalconsiderationsforeffectiveimplementation 76

ConsiderationsfortheG7 83

Annex 86

Abbreviationsandacronyms 86

Unitsofmeasure 87

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Executivesummary

Aclearunderstandingoftheemissionsassociatedwithhydrogenproductioncanhelpenableinvestmentandboostscale-up

Mostlarge-scaleprojectsfortheproductionoflow-emissionhydrogenarefacingimportantbottlenecks.Only4%ofprojectsthathavebeenthusfarannouncedareunderconstructionorhavetakenafinalinvestmentdecision.Uncertaintyaboutfuturedemand,thelackofinfrastructureavailabletodeliverhydrogentoendusersandthelackofclarityinregulatoryframeworksandcertificationschemesarepreventingprojectdevelopersfromtakingfirmdecisionsoninvestment.

Transparencyontheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductioncanbringmuch-neededclarityandfacilitateinvestment.Usingcolourstorefertodifferentproductionroutes,ortermssuchas“sustainable”,“low-carbon”or“clean”hydrogen,obscuresmanydifferentlevelsofpotentialemissions.Thisterminologyhasprovedimpracticalasabasisforcontractingdecisions,deterringpotentialinvestors.Byagreeingtousetheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductioninthedefinitionofnationalregulationsabouthydrogen,governmentscanfacilitatemarketandregulatoryinteroperability.Thisreportaimstoassistgovernmentsindoingsobyassessingtheemissionsintensityofindividualhydrogenproductionroutes,forgovernmentstothendecidewhichlevelalignswiththeirowncircumstances.

Theproductionanduseofhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelsneedstoscaleup

TheG7isacornerstoneofeffortstoacceleratethescale-upoftheproductionanduseoflow-emissionhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuels.G7members–Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,theUnitedKingdom,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion–accountforaroundone-quarteroftoday’sglobalhydrogenproductionanddemand.Atthesametime,G7membersarefrontrunnersindecarbonisinghydrogenproductionandtechnologydevelopmentfornewhydrogenapplicationsinend-usesectors.TheG7canuseitstechnologicalleadershipandeconomicpowertoenableagreaterincreaseintheproductionanduseoflow-emissionhydrogen.However,G7memberscannotundertakethischallengealone.Thedevelopmentofaninternationalhydrogenmarketwillrequiretheinvolvementofawiderangeofotherstakeholders,includingamongemergingeconomies.

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Hydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelshaveanimportantroletoplayinthecleanenergytransition.Globalhydrogendemandreached94milliontonnesin2021,concentratedmainlyinitsuseasafeedstockinrefiningandindustry.Meetinggovernmentclimateambitionsrequiresastep-changeindemandcreationforlow-emissionhydrogen,particularlyinnewapplicationsinsectorswhereemissionsarehardtoabate,suchasheavyindustryandlong-distancetransport.Atthesametime,hydrogenproductionneedstobedecarbonised;today,low-emissionhydrogenrepresentslessthan1%ofglobalproduction.

Thedevelopmentofinternationalsupplychainscanhelptomeettheneedsofcountriesandregionswithlargedemandandlimitedpotentialtoproducelow-emissionhydrogen.Regionalcostdifferencesandgrowingdemandinregionswithlesspotentialtoproducelow-emissionhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelscouldunderpinthedevelopmentofaninternationalhydrogenmarkettotradethesefuels,despitetheadditionalcostsarisingfromconversionandtransport.Theglobalenergycrisishasfurtherstrengthenedinterestinlow-emissionhydrogenasawaytoreducedependencyonfossilfuelsandenhanceenergysecurity,becominganewdriverforglobaltradeinhydrogen.

Hydrogendefinitionsbasedonemissionsintensitycanformthebasisforrobustregulation

Theemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductionvarieswidelydependingontheproductionroute.Today,hydrogenproductionisdominatedbyunabatedfossilfuels;emissionsneedtodecreasesignificantlytomeetclimateambitions.Thefuelandtechnologyused,therateatwhichCO2captureandstorageisapplied,andthelevelofupstreamandmidstreamemissionsallstronglyinfluencetheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproduction.Forexample,productionbasedonunabatedfossilfuelscanresultinemissionsofupto27kgCO2-eq/kgH2,dependingonthelevelofupstreamandmidstreamemissions.Conversely,producinghydrogenfrombiomasswithCO2captureandstoragecanresultinnegativeemissions,asaresultofremovingthecapturedbiogeniccarbonfromthenaturalcarboncycle.Theaverageemissionsintensityofglobalhydrogenproductionin2021wasintherangeof12-13kgCO2-eq/kgH2.IntheIEANetZeroby2050Scenario,thisaveragefleetemissionsintensityreaches6-7kgCO2-eq/kgH2by2030andfallsbelow1kgCO2-eq/kgH2by2050.

Theemissionsintensityofhydrogenproducedwithelectrolysisisdeterminedbytheemissionsfromtheelectricitythatisused.UsingthemethodologydevelopedbytheInternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuel

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CellsintheEconomy(IPHE)

1

,renewableelectricity

2

generationhasnoassociatedemissions,resultingin0kgCO2-eq/kgH2.Inthecaseofgridelectricity,theemissionsintensityvariesgreatlybetweenpeakloadandbaseloadhours,dependingonwhichtechnologyisusedtomeetadditionaldemandfortheelectrolysers.Toreduceemissions,itisthereforeimportanttoensurethatgrid-connectedelectrolysersdonotleadtoanincreaseinfossil-basedelectricitygeneration.

Carboncaptureandstoragetechnologiescanreducedirectemissionsfromfossil-basedhydrogenproductionbutmeasurestomitigateupstreamandmidstreamemissionsareneeded.Hydrogenproductionfromunabatednaturalgasresultsinanemissionsintensityintherangeof10-14kgCO2-eq/kgH2,withupstreamandmidstreamemissionsofmethaneandCO2innaturalgasproductionbeingresponsiblefor1-5kgCO2-eq/kgH2.RetrofittingexistingassetswithcaptureofCO2fromthefeedstock-relateduseofnaturalgas(captureratearound60%)canbringtheemissionsintensitydownto5-8kgCO2-eq/kgH2.Highercapturerates(above90%)canbeachievedwithadvancedtechnologies,reducingemissionsintensityto0.8-6kgCO2-eq/kgH2,althoughnoplantsusingthesetechnologiesareinoperationyet.Athighcapturerates,theemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductionisdominatedbyupstreamandmidstreamemissions,whichaccountfor0.7-5kgCO2-eq/kgH2,underscoringtheimportanceofcuttingmethaneemissionsfromnaturalgasoperations.

Governmentsshoulddefineroadmapstodecarbonisehydrogenproduction,bothdomesticandimported,inaccordancewiththeirnationalcircumstances.Thisreportthereforedoesnotprovideagenericacceptableupperthresholdfortheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproduction.However,governmentsshouldtakeintoaccountfactorssuchasemissionsintensity,supplyvolumesandaffordabilitytoinformdecision-makingtoscaleupproductionanduseoflow--emissionhydrogen.Thehigherproductioncostoflow--emissionhydrogenandtherelativelyyoungageofexistingunabatedfossilfuel-basedhydrogenproductionassetsinthechemicalsectorarebarrierstotheuptakeoflow-emissionhydrogen.RetrofittingexistingproductionassetswithCO2captureandstoragecanbeacost-effectivenear-termoptiontopartiallydecarboniseproduction.Inregionswithabundantrenewableresources,theuseofrenewableelectricitytoproducehydrogenissettobethemostcost-effectiveoption,evenbefore2030.

1TheIPHEhasdevelopedamethodologyforcalculatingthegreenhousegasemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductionandconditioning,andisduetocompletethemethodologyforhydrogentransport.TheIPHEmethodologywillserveasthebasisforthefirstinternationalstandardonthistopicandcanserveasafirststepfortheadoptionofemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductioninregulations.

2IPHEmethodologyassignszeroemissionstosolarPV,wind,hydro-andgeothermalpower.

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Referencetotheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductioninregulationscanenableinteroperabilityandlimitmarketfragmentation

Severalcertificationsystemsorregulatoryframeworksdefiningthesustainabilityattributesofhydrogenarecurrentlybeingdeveloped,butthereisariskthatlackofalignmentmayleadtomarketfragmentation.

Existingeffortshavesomecommonalitiesinscope,systemboundaries,productionpathways,modelsforchainofcustodyandemissionsintensitylevels.Butinconsistenciesinapproachesriskbecomingabarrierforthedevelopmentofinternationalhydrogentrade.Referringtotheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproduction,basedonajointunderstandingoftheappliedmethodologyusedforregulationandcertification,canbeanimportantenablerofmarketdevelopment,facilitatingaminimumlevelofinteroperatibilityandenablingmutualrecognitionratherthanreplacingorduplicatingongoingefforts.

Regulationandcertificationthatusestheemissionsintensityofhydrogenproductionshouldalsobeabletoaccommodateadditionalsustainabilitycriteria.Governmentsandcompaniesmaywishtoconsiderotherpotentialsustainabilityrequirementswhenmakingdecisionsabouttheuseofhydrogenasacleanfuelandfeedstock.Criteriarelatedtotheoriginoftheenergysource,landorwateruse,andsocio-economicaspectssuchasworkingconditionsarealreadyincorporatedintosomeregulationsandcertificationschemes.Theuseofemissionsintensityisafirststeptoenableinteroperability,butshouldnotprecludegovernmentsandcompaniesincorporatingadditionalcriteria.Theuseof“productpassports”canhelptobringallthesecriteriatogether,aswellastostandardiseprocesses,minimisecostsandmaximisetransparency.

TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensityIntroduction

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Introduction

TowardshydrogendefinitionsbasedontheiremissionsintensityisanewreportbytheInternationalEnergyAgency,designedtoinformpolicymakers,hydrogenproducers,investorsandtheresearchcommunityinadvanceoftheG7ClimateandEnergyMinisterialinApril2023.ThereportbuildsontheanalysisfromtheIEA’s

NetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector

andcontinuestheseriesofreportsthattheIEAhaspreparedfortheG7onthesectoraldetailsoftheroadmap,including

AchievingNetZeroElectricitySectorsinG7Members

,

AchievingNetZeroHeavyIndustrySectorsinG7Members

and

Emissions

MeasurementandDataCollectionforaNetZeroSteelIndustry

.

Achievingnetzeroemissionsby2050requireslarge-scaledeploymentofcleanenergytechnologiesatanunprecedentedspeed.Low-emissionhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelshaveanimportantroletoplayinthedecarbonisationofsectorswithhard-to-abateemissions,suchasheavyindustryandlong-distancetransport.However,theavailabilityoftheselow-emissionfuelsistodaylimited,andeffortsareneededintheshorttermtoscaleuptheirproductionanduse.Thiswouldhelptobringproductioncostsdownandtodevelopinternationalsupplychainsthatcansupportthedecarbonisationroadmapofregionswithlimitedpotentialtoproducethesefuelsdomesticallytomeettheirgrowingdemand.

Momentumaroundhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelshasbeengrowingoverthepastyears.Theyarenowwidelyrecognisedasanimportanttooltosupportgovernmentclimateambitionsandnetzerogreenhousegasemissionscommitmentsannouncedinrecentyears.TheglobalenergycrisissparkedbyRussianFederation(hereafter,“Russia”)’sinvasionofUkrainehasfurtherstrengthenedinterestinlow-emissionhydrogeninparticular,asawaytoreducedependencyonfossilfuelsandenhanceenergysecurity.

Industryhasrespondedtothiscallforaction,andannouncementsofnewprojectstoproducelow-emissionhydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelsaregrowingataveryimpressivespeed.However,onlyasmallfractionoftheseprojectshavesecuredtheinvestmentrequiredtobeginconstruction.Thelackofclarityinregulatoryframeworksanduncertaintyaroundcertificationareimportantfactorscontributingtotheslowprogressinreal-worldimplementation.

Theuseofterminologiesthatarebasedoncolourstodescribedifferentproductiontechnologies(e.g.“grey”hydrogenforproductionbasedonunabatedfossilfuels,“blue”hydrogenforproductionbasedonfossilfuelswithcarboncaptureandstorage,or“green”hydrogenproducedthroughuseofrenewableelectricityin

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electrolysers),orontermssuchas“sustainable”,“low-carbon”or“clean”hydrogenasameanstodistinguishitfromunabatedfossilfuel-basedproductionhasprovedimpracticalforuseincontractsthatunderpininvestment.Thereiscurrentlynointernationalagreementontheuseoftheseterms,whichgeneratesuncertaintyamongthedifferentplayersinvolvedinthenascenthydrogen,ammoniaandhydrogen-basedfuelsmarkets.

Theuncertaintycreatedbythelackofregulatoryclarityishinderingtheinvestmentrequiredtoscaleupproductionanddevelopsupplychains.Clarityonregulationsandcertificationprocessesneededtodemonstrateregulatorycompliancecanreassuredifferentmarketplayers,especiallyfirstmovers.Defininghydrogenbasedonthegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsintensityofitsproductioncanhelptoprovideclaritytoprojectdevelopersandinvestorsontheemissionsintensityoftheirproductanditscompliancewithregulatoryandmarketrequirements.Inaddition,itcanenableacertainlevelofinteroperabilityofregulationsacrossdifferentcountriesandallowmutualrecognitionofcertificationschemes,whichcanminimisemarketfragmentation.

Thisreportreviewswaysforputtingemissionsintensityatthecentreofregulationandcertification.ItappliesthemethodologydevelopedbytheInternationalPartnershipforHydrogenandFuelCellsintheEconomy(IPHE)toassesstheGHGemissionsofhydrogenproductioninordertoillustratetherangeofemissionsassociatedwithdifferenthydrogenproductionroutes.Thereportsetsoutaroutetoimplementanemissionsaccountingframeworkthatcanhelpgovernmentstofacilitateinteroperabilityandminimisemarketfragmentationinordertounlockinvestmentandspeedupdeployment.

TheG7bringstogethersomeoftheworld’slargestadvancedeconomies,collectivelyaccountingforabout40%ofglobalGDPandroughlyone-quarterofglobalhydrogenproductionanddemand.Moreover,G7membersareamongtheleadingcountriesintheimplementationofpoliciestosupportthescale-upofproductionoflow-emissionhydrogen,ammoniaand