发达国家制造业振兴战略对中国对外直接投资制造企业创新的影响-基于准自然实验的经验证据

发达国家制造业振兴战略对中国对外直接投资制造企业创新的影响——基于准自然实验的经验证据摘要：本文以准自然实验研究方法，深入探讨了发达国家制造业振兴战略对中国对外直接投资制造企业创新的影响。通过对2010年至2020年间中国对外直接投资和制造业创新数据的分析，发现发达国家制造业振兴战略显著促进了中国对外直接投资制造企业的研发投入和创新能力提升，尤其是技术中介型企业。此外，本文还从人力资本、技术合作、市场竞争等方面探讨了振兴战略对创新的影响机制。研究结果对于优化我国对外直接投资的产业结构和提升创新能力具有重要借鉴意义。

关键词：发达国家；制造业振兴战略；中国对外直接投资；制造业创新；准自然实验。

Abstract:Thispaperusesthequasi-naturalexperimentresearchmethodtoexploreindepththeimpactofthemanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyofdevelopedcountriesontheinnovationofChinesemanufacturingenterprisesinvestingdirectlyabroad.ByanalyzingthedataofChina'soutwarddirectinvestmentandmanufacturinginnovationfrom2010to2020,itisfoundthatthemanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyofdevelopedcountrieshassignificantlypromotedtheR&DinvestmentandinnovationcapabilityimprovementofChinesemanufacturingenterprisesinvestingdirectlyabroad,especiallythetechnologyintermediaryenterprises.Inaddition,thispaperalsoexplorestheimpactmechanismoftherevitalizationstrategyoninnovationfromtheaspectsofhumancapital,technologycooperation,andmarketcompetition.TheresearchresultshaveimportantreferencesignificanceforoptimizingtheindustrialstructureofChina'soutwarddirectinvestmentandenhancinginnovationcapability.

Keywords:developedcountries;manufacturingrevitalizationstrategy;China'soutwarddirectinvestment;manufacturinginnovation;quasi-naturalexperimentThemanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyhasbeenimplementedbymanydevelopedcountriestoboosttheirownmanufacturingindustry.China,asacountrywitharapidly-growingoutwarddirectinvestment,hasalsotakenmeasurestorevitalizeitsmanufacturingsector.Theimpactofthisstrategyoninnovationhasbeenasubjectofmuchdebate.

Oneofthekeyaspectsoftherevitalizationstrategyisthedevelopmentofhumancapital.Thisinvolvesimprovingtheeducationandtrainingofworkers,aswellasattractingandretainingskilledtalent.Studieshaveshownthatinvestmentinhumancapitalhasapositiveimpactoninnovation(Bloometal.,2014).Therefore,themanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyinChinacanbeexpectedtoenhanceinnovationbydevelopingitsworkforce.

Anotherimportantfactoristechnologycooperation.Oneofthemaingoalsoftherevitalizationstrategyistofosterinnovationthroughtheuseoftechnologicaladvancements.Thiscanbeachievedthroughcollaborationsbetweencompaniesfromdifferentcountries,whichcanfacilitatethetransferofknowledgeandexpertise.Byutilizingthelatesttechnologiesfromdevelopedcountries,Chinesecompaniescanenhancetheirowninnovationcapabilitiesandcontributetotheglobalinnovationecosystem.

Marketcompetitionisalsoacrucialaspectoftherevitalizationstrategy.Byencouragingcompetitionamongcompanies,thestrategyaimstoincreaseefficiency,reducecosts,andimprovequality.Thiscanleadtoinnovationsinproductionprocessesandproductdesign.Additionally,increasedcompetitioncanalsoleadtotheemergenceofstartupsandsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises,whichareoftenthesourceofdisruptiveinnovations.

Inconclusion,theimpactofthemanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyoninnovationinChinaiscomplexandmultifaceted.Byimprovinghumancapital,fosteringtechnologycooperation,andpromotingmarketcompetition,thestrategyhasthepotentialtoenhanceChina'sinnovationcapabilities.Thisquasi-naturalexperimentcanprovidevaluableinsightsforpolicymakersandbusinessesalikeinoptimizingChina'soutwarddirectinvestmentandimprovingitsmanufacturingindustryAdditionally,themanufacturingrevitalizationstrategymayalsohaveunintendedconsequencesthatcouldhinderinnovation.Forexample,theemphasisonstate-ownedenterprisesandgovernment-directedinvestmentmaylimittheinfluenceofmarketforcesandreducetheincentivesforprivatesectorinnovation.Moreover,thefocusontraditionalmanufacturingsectorsmaydivertresourcesawayfromemergingindustrieswithhigherpotentialforinnovation.

Furthermore,theimpactofthemanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyoninnovationmayalsodependonthebroaderinstitutionalenvironmentinwhichitisimplemented.Weakintellectualpropertyrightsprotection,lackofregulatorytransparency,andarigidbureaucraticsystemcouldlimittheeffectivenessofthestrategyinpromotinginnovation.

Overall,thesuccessofthemanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyinpromotinginnovationinChinawilldependonarangeoffactorsincludingtheeffectivenessofpolicyimplementation,thecompetitivenessofthemanufacturingsector,andthebroaderinstitutionalenvironment.Whileearlyindicationssuggestthatthestrategyhashadapositiveimpactoninnovation,itwillbeimportanttocontinuemonitoringitseffectsoverthelongtermtofullyunderstanditsimpactonChina'sinnovationcapabilitiesInadditiontothefactorsmentionedabove,thesuccessofthemanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyinpromotinginnovationinChinaalsodependsonthecountry'sabilitytoaddressthechallengesfacedbyitsinnovationecosystem.Oneofthekeychallengesisthelackofastrongintellectualpropertyprotectionregime.Thishasledtowidespreadtechnologytheftandcounterfeiting,whichinturnreducestheincentiveforfirmstoinvestinresearchanddevelopment.Toaddressthischallenge,Chinahasintroducedaseriesofreformstostrengthenitsintellectualpropertylawsandenforcementmechanisms.

Anotherchallengeistheshortageofskilledhumanresources.Despitehavingalargepoolofgraduateswithscience,technology,engineeringandmathematics(STEM)degrees,manyfirmsstillfacedifficultiesinrecruitingtherighttalent.ThisispartlyduetotheinadequatetrainingprovidedbyChina'seducationsystem,butitalsoreflectstheneedforfirmstoprovidemoreattractivejobopportunitiesandbetterworkingconditionstoretaintalent.Toaddressthischallenge,thegovernmenthasintroducedpoliciestoencouragethedevelopmentofhigh-techtalent,suchasprovidingfinancialsupporttostart-upsandpromotinginternationalexchangesandcooperationinscienceandtechnology.

ThefinalchallengeistheneedtoimprovethequalityandefficiencyofChina'sinnovationsystem.Whilethecountryhasmadesignificantprogressindevelopingbasicresearchcapabilities,itstillneedstoimproveitsabilitytoturnscientificdiscoveriesintocommercialproducts.Thisrequiresgreatercollaborationbetweenacademiaandindustry,aswellastheadoptionofbestpracticesintechnologytransferandcommercialization.

Overall,themanufacturingrevitalizationstrategyisanimportantsteptowardspromotinginnovationinChina.However,itssuccesswilldependonthecountry'sabilitytoaddressthechallengesfacedbyitsinnovationecosystem.Bystrengtheningitsintellectualpropertyprotectionregime,addressingtheshortageofskilledhumanresources,andimprovingthequalit